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Trade Deadline Primer: Vancouver Canucks

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Halfway through February, the trade deadline looms and is just a few weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Vancouver Canucks.

While it wouldn’t be fair to say there were high expectations for Vancouver heading into the season, there were certainly some hopes that they’d be able to pick up where they left off after a strong second half in 2021-22.  With Bruce Boudreau back for a full season, the team would be better offensively, Thatcher Demko would continue to be a strong starter, and things would be looking up.

Suffice it to say, that hasn’t happened.  Boudreau was recently fired after months of speculation with Rick Tocchet taking over while Demko was having the worst season of his career before being injured, turning things over to a pair of AHL goaltenders.  The end result is that they’re one of the worst teams in the league defensively and with one big move made already – Bo Horvat to the Islanders – the selling-off process is well underway.

Record

21-30-4, 6th in the Pacific

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$7.62MM in LTIR relief, 1/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: NYI 1st*, VAN 1st, VAN 2nd, VAN 3rd, NYR 4th, VAN 4th, VAN 6th
2024: VAN 1st, VAN 3rd, VAN 4th, VAN 5th, VAN 6th, VAN 7th

*-Pick is top-12 protected in 2022-23 and becomes an unprotected pick in 2024 if it doesn’t convey this season.

Trade Chips

There has been no shortage of speculation surrounding defenseman Luke Schenn in recent weeks.  The veteran has been a capable defensive piece on the third pairing over the last two seasons while being one of the most physical players in the league.  He’s also extremely cheap as his $850K cap hit is just $100K above the minimum salary.  Accordingly, this is a contract that pretty much everyone can afford without necessarily needing retention or salary offsets, elements we’re going to see come up frequently over the next couple of weeks.  Schenn has indicated that he’d like to stay in Vancouver but they’re likely to get a high enough draft pick that they’ll opt to move him.

Also on the back end, Tyler Myers is another player who has been in trade speculation for a little while.  Unlike Schenn, he’s not a rental (signed through next season) and certainly isn’t cheap with a $6MM AAV and a 10-team no-trade clause.  He’s still capable of logging top-four minutes and in a swap of underperforming change-of-scenery veterans, there’s a move to be made with him.  Another defenseman, Travis Dermott, is one to keep an eye on.  Injuries and struggles have limited him to just 11 games so far.  Owed a $1.75MM qualifying offer this summer, that’s a price that’s likely more than they’re willing to pay so if there’s a team that wants the 26-year-old as extra depth, it’s hard to imagine the Canucks passing up the opportunity to pick up a late-round pick there.

Up front, Brock Boeser is someone to keep an eye on.  Things have not gone well for him this season but he has scored more than 20 goals in four of the last five years and likely would have gotten there in the year he didn’t had it not been for the pandemic-abbreviated schedule.  There are teams that certainly could use him in their top six but with a $6.65MM price tag through 2024-25, fitting him into a contender’s cap structure will be tough.  If they’re willing to retain salary though, there’s a chance he could be on the move as well.

Conor Garland is having a decent season and should reach 39 points for the fourth year in a row.  However, he has taken a bit of a step back from last year and with the additions of Andrei Kuzmenko and Ilya Mikheyev last summer and the acquisition of Anthony Beauvillier in the Horvat trade, Vancouver has a surplus of wingers.  Garland carried some decent trade value back with Arizona but how much will his contract (which runs through 2025-26 at a $4.95MM AAV) change things?  Again, retention might be necessary to facilitate a move or at least take a similarly-priced player back.

Other Potential Trade Chips: G Collin Delia, F Micheal Ferland (LTIR contract), D Jack Rathbone, D Riley Stillman

Team Needs

1) Picks and Prospects – This one is pretty obvious for a team that’s heading for a rebuild.  Vancouver hasn’t had more than six picks in the last three years and has only picked twice in the top 75 over that span.  Their prospect pool isn’t the deepest as a result and needs to be built back up.

2) Cap Flexibility – At the moment, Vancouver has just over $80MM in commitments for next season while still needing to fill out a few roster spots.  Even as a seller, they need to open up some room simply to be able to afford to ice a full team next season.  Moving out one of their pricier contracts (Myers, Garland, or Boeser) would go a long way toward giving them some much-needed wiggle room.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Deadline Primer: Buffalo Sabres

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Halfway through February, the trade deadline looms and is just a few weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Buffalo Sabres.

For all the fans that want to point to Jack Eichel as the problem, it was going on long before he arrived. It’s been a decade since the Buffalo Sabres had a winning season. Finally, it appears that that streak will end, and the players involved deserve a reward.

The young group in Buffalo has shown flashes of real brilliance, starting with Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin. There’s optimism that they can even compete for the playoffs this year, and finally won’t be acting as the sellers they’ve been for so long.

Record

26-22-4, 5th in the Atlantic

Deadline Status

Opportunistic buyers

Deadline Cap Space

$58.23MM today, $80.4MM in deadline space, 0/3 retention slots used, 42/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, PHI 2nd, VGK 2nd, BUF 4th, BUF 5th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th

2024:BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 3rd, BUF 4th, BUF 5th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th

Trade Chips

You’re not reading that incorrectly. The Sabres could (technically) add more than $80MM in cap hits at the deadline. That’s what happens when you spend the entire season flirting with the salary cap floor. Even next season, when they have big-money extensions kicking in for Thompson, Dylan Cozens, and Mattias Samuelsson, they still have less than $60MM committed and nearly an entire roster signed.

That means the old favorite phrase will be thrown around in the coming weeks. You guessed it, the Sabres can weaponize their cap space. They can play middleman for other transactions, they can bring on bad money to facilitate added value, and they can get involved in basically every bidding war imaginable.

That’s not to say they will, but cap space in itself is a precious asset for NHL teams.

Beyond that, those three second-round picks look like the perfect pieces to be involved in a deal. This isn’t a team that should load up by spending top prospects and picks on a bunch of rentals. They’re not good enough to do that yet. But targeting the next tier of available players with a second (or two), and then using the cap space to re-sign them? That sounds like a winning plan to support the development of your young core.

Even some of those younger players could be dangled in the right deal. Casey Mittelstadt hasn’t worked out as planned, even if he does have a career-high 31 points this season. The eighth-overall pick from 2017 is signed for next year at a reasonable $2.5MM, but leaves you wanting more almost every night.

Peyton Krebs has been much the same since arriving in the Jack Eichel trade, though he is quite a bit younger than Mittelstadt. If he had to be used as a piece to get a more dominant top-six forward, especially one with term, it might make sense for the Sabres to pull the trigger.

One interesting name to consider, perhaps next trade deadline more than this one, is Victor Olofsson. The 27-year-old has an excellent 23 goals in 52 games, but never quite grew into the role that they hoped he would as a play-driving option. For instance, Olofsson is averaging less time at even strength than JJ Peterka, but makes up for it with his regular powerplay minutes. Given he is only signed for one more year, there’s no guarantee that he is part of the long-term plan in Buffalo, or just benefiting from a lack of experienced scoring options at the moment.

Other trade chips: G Eric Comrie, D Ilya Lyubushkin, D Kale Clague

Team Needs

1) Top-six winger: This is where the opportunistic part comes in. Buffalo should be involved in talks for some of the big names, including Timo Meier, as an opportunity to add an impact player to the group. In Meier’s case specifically, they could absorb the $10MM qualifying offer, but long-term extensions are also possible for Buffalo no matter who they acquire. Captain Kyle Okposo may be a good option to bring back on a cheaper deal, but he shouldn’t be relied on as the team’s fourth-best winger anymore. Landing a big name will let the likes of Peterka, and Quinn develop on their own schedule.

2) Third-line center: On a contending team, Mittelstadt probably isn’t the answer as the third pivot. Sure, the Sabres have other top prospects like Noah Ostlund and Matthew Savoie coming, but getting a veteran two-way player to support Thompson and Cozens would put them so far ahead of the curve. The return of Ryan O’Reilly seems unlikely, but there could be other opportunities out there to upgrade that spot if they want to take a swing this year.

(Bonus need) Veteran defense: If there’s one area that the Sabres are probably going to do just fine in the long term, it’s on the back end, with Dahlin and Owen Power anchoring two top-tier pairings. But if there is a real desire to compete for the playoffs this year, adding some veteran experience to the back end is a must. Grabbing a rental, preferably right-handed, just to beef up the depth will go a long way to letting the next 30 games be as impactful as the first 50.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Deadline Primer: Dallas Stars

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With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is just a few weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Dallas Stars.

Usually, when a team is leading an entire conference 50+ games into the season, there is more chatter about them adding significant talent at the deadline to go on a long Stanley Cup run. But the Stars, sitting first in the West with 70 points, are somehow usually still left out of the conversation.

Fans and media are focused on what the Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche, or Winnipeg Jets may be up to. Dallas slowly hides in the shadows with a team that could rival anyone in the league. Over the next few weeks, that could change, with the Stars emerging as one of the most exciting deadline teams to watch, given a reasonable cap situation and interesting prospect pool.

Record

30-14-10, 1st in the Central

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$1.15MM today, $1.64MM in deadline space, 0/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: DAL 2nd, DAL 4th, DAL 5th, DAL 6th, DAL 7th

2024: DAL 1st, DAL 2nd, DAL 3rd, DAL 5th, DAL 6th, DAL 7th

Trade Chips

When the Stars traded a first-round pick for Nils Lundkvist in September, it removed their most significant chip for this season. Without a 2023 first to give up, it isn’t easy to get involved in some of the biggest deadline names. Bo Horvat and Vladimir Tarasenko, for instance, both returned first-round selections for the Vancouver Canucks and St. Louis Blues, with names like Timo Meier expected to do the same.

But the interesting side effect of adding Lundkvist was how it clogged the path for some other defense prospects in the organization. The assumption when Dallas let John Klingberg go last summer was that Thomas Harley would likely establish himself as a full-time NHL defenseman this season, taking some of the easy minutes that Klingberg had been given in the past. But Harley, the 18th overall pick from 2019, has spent the entire season in the AHL with the Texas Stars.

Lian Bischel, their 2022 first-round pick is even further down that depth chart, and will have a number of players to leapfrog before he sniffs NHL minutes. He isn’t even signed at this point, meaning there are still years until he makes an impact.

Either of these defense prospects could be flipped in a deal, given Dallas has five defensemen signed through next season and looks like a legitimate contender this year.

A forward prospect like Mavrik Bourque could be dangled, too, after his first minor league season has been just okay. That likely isn’t the case with Wyatt Johnston, who has made an NHL impact as a rookie and looks like a long-term building block for the group, or Logan Stankoven, who was recently ranked ninth overall among drafted prospects by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic.

One interesting name is Denis Gurianov, who continues to frustrate the organization. The talented 25-year-old forward has moments of pure brilliance when he looks like a dominant NHL player. That’s how he scored 20 goals as a sophomore and nine more in the bubble playoffs as Dallas went to the Stanley Cup Final.

But his game is just rife with inconsistency, leading to regular scratches and just two goals in 38 games this season. The 12th overall pick from 2015 might be an interesting reclamation project for a rebuilding club, though it’s hard to see someone pay a premium for him at this point.

(As an aside, this isn’t the first time a big, talented winger has frustrated the Stars front office. After Valeri Nichushkin failed to score a single goal in the 2018-19 season he was bought out by Dallas, only to find an organization in Colorado that would patiently develop him into one of the best two-way forwards in the league. Gurianov certainly doesn’t look like that right now, but neither did Nichushkin during those frustrating years.)

Other trade chips: F Ty Dellandrea, F Christian Kyrou, G Anton Khudobin

Team Needs

1) Top-six forward: Even with the return of Jamie Benn as a top-end player and Tyler Seguin’s recovery from injury going better than many imagined, the Stars could still use a little bit of punch upfront. The nice part about this is the versatility that some of their players bring, meaning it could be any of the three forward positions they add. If Mason Marchment had brought last season’s scoring touch with him, this might not be an issue, and Johnston could be an internal option for more offensive minutes.

But adding a difference-maker from outside the organization seems the most likely outcome for Dallas at the deadline if they’re willing to part with the assets to get one.

2) Defensive depth: Defense? Didn’t we just finish saying how Dallas has a full blueline? Well, yes – but if the team isn’t comfortable with Harley as the next man up for this playoff run, it might make sense to add another depth piece. The kind of veteran player who can step in and give you 12-15 hard, mistake-free minutes is a valuable thing to have at playoff time, and if they aren’t making a big splash up front, Dallas might pivot to defense.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Mailbag: Blackhawks, Kraken, Predictions, Stars, Draft, Devils, Mantha, Kings

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what Seattle might do to add before the deadline, how Dallas could be an intriguing team to keep an eye on, if there’s a trade market for Anthony Mantha, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s two mailbag columns.

Grocery stick: What would the Blackhawks do with Connor Bedard? If they keep trading away everyone, is Bedard supposed to play with wingers like Mackenzie Entwistle and Boris Katchouk? Should I keep my fingers crossed anyone else wins the lottery?

This is a question I’ve wondered myself for a few possible lottery winners.  When you get a potential franchise player, the last thing a team should want to do is to waste his three cheap seasons by continuing to aim to finish at the bottom of the standings.  If Bedard pans out as many expect him to, his second contract is going to be a pricey one, probably in the double-digit AAV range.  It’s much easier to try to win when that player is capped at a $1MM base salary on an entry-level deal.

For Chicago specifically, I don’t think winning the lottery would necessarily end the rebuild and the spending would start right away to add some quality talent around him.  However, I do think it would expedite what otherwise is likely to be a multi-year process.

Next season, I wouldn’t expect much to change.  I think they’ll want to add a capable veteran or two (or perhaps re-sign a certain duo if they opt not to be dealt) to insulate Bedard a little bit but the goal will still be tanking so their current wingers would still likely be part of the lineup.  In 2024-25, Frank Nazar might be ready to turn pro after his freshman year this season was cut short due to injury and Lukas Reichel should be a full-timer by then.  They’ll also be armed with ample cap space and what should be a pretty good selling point (come play in a strong market with the next great star) to help attract some quality veterans.  That’s not enough to become an immediate contender but they might be able to get to the playoffs.  From there, 2025-26 would be their ‘go for it’ year before Bedard’s contract would start to become more of an obstacle.

aka.nda: How big do the Kraken dare to dream about their postseason?

I don’t expect GM Ron Francis to be dreaming too big here.  Part of the logic for Seattle hiring him was the slow and steady approach he has for roster building.  This is only their second year and I don’t think he feels that they’re at a spot where it’s time to flip a switch, consolidate some assets into more impact pieces, and really go for it.

There’s a big question that stands out to me that make it difficult to justify loading up too much, their goaltending.  Martin Jones isn’t a true starting goalie, Philipp Grubauer is still underachieving, and even when Chris Driedger returns from his season-long injury, he’s not a real starter either.  They’re not going to go trade for yet another goalie and it’s hard to think someone in that triumvirate is going to carry them to postseason success.  With that in mind, it’s probably not the right time to load up.

They’ve already made their depth move on the back end with the addition of Jaycob Megna from San Jose.  I could see them aiming for a third-line forward signed beyond this year with Toronto’s second-rounder being in play (a non-rental makes it easier for them to justify parting with the pick) but that’s about the extent of the buying I expect them to do.

The Duke: Oh, Supreme Soothsaying Spheroid, I humbly seek your wise fortune-telling: 1. Does Horvat somehow resurrect Barzal’s scoring? 2. Luke Hughes rumored up with Devils in early March; does he make their PP? 3. Does Tarasenko stay or go – and to where n’ for whom? 4. Same Q regarding Laine?

1) If you mean scoring in terms of goals, probably not.  Mathew Barzal just isn’t a goal scorer; he’s a playmaker.  It doesn’t matter who you put with him, he’ll hover around the mid-teens for goals; he’s just not a high-end shooter.  But what Bo Horvat should do is balance things out.  The Isles now have two capable scoring lines with some players that can be shifted around.  In the long term, that’s going to help their offense and, by extension, help Barzal’s point total.  If he’s on the wing with Horvat as he is now, that line should score more.  If Barzal’s on the second line and Horvat’s line is drawing the tighter checkers, that should make it a bit easier on Barzal.  Long story short, the trade should help Barzal’s assist total but I wouldn’t expect his goal total to change much.

2) Assuming Hughes does turn pro as expected and is in New Jersey’s lineup, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense if he wasn’t on one of their power play units.  If you’re going to put someone into the lineup straight out of college, putting that player in a position to succeed is critical.  He’s quite comfortable and productive on the man advantage at Michigan so it would make sense to play him on the second unit with the Devils.  Damon Severson is in that spot at the moment but only has four goals (none of which were on the power play) so it’s not as if that spot can’t be upgraded.

3) Well, we all know the answer to this one now as Vladimir Tarasenko is with the Rangers as the crystal ball predicted back in December.

4) There isn’t much of a reason to think Patrik Laine is going anywhere over the next few weeks.  It was a big deal for them to get Laine to give up a few UFA years on his last contract so why would they move him in the first year of that?  Yes, things haven’t gone well at all and there will be changes coming but it’s not going to be their top guys that move.  Laine (and Johnny Gaudreau) should be around for a couple more years at least.

@JasonClausen7: Are the Stars pretty much handcuffed this trade deadline?  It seems the Benn and Seguin contracts have stopped them from being able to do anything lately.  Benn’s resurgence has been great but what’s happened to Seguin?  Will he ever be better than this?

I actually think Dallas is in reasonable shape compared to some other potential buyers.  Barely having $1MM in cap room (per CapFriendly) isn’t much to work with but it’s better than quite a few teams.  On top of that, they have an expiring offset contract in Anton Khudobin who’s counting on the books at $2.208MM while he’s in the minors.  Most contenders don’t have a veteran roster player that they’d want to move out but Khudobin, who isn’t on the roster at all, is an easy exception.  Include him in a trade and all of a sudden, that ups their spending capital past the $3MM mark and if the trading team is retaining up to the maximum of 50%, now we’re talking about a $6MM player.  That gives them some options so I don’t see them being handcuffed.

As for Tyler Seguin, I don’t see a big resurgence coming.  He’s averaging 0.66 points per game this season.  If we expand that timeline back to his average since 2018-19, it’s at 0.66 points per game.  This is basically who he is now, a second liner that, if he’s healthy, should average between 50-55 points in a season.  That’s still a pretty useful player all things considered.  Don’t get me wrong, the contract is lousy and is probably one of the worst in the league.  But at the very least, he’s still a more than serviceable player.

Devil Shark: I know it’s early(ish) but… Is 2018 the biggest bust draft this millennium?

By a quick look, there are about three top-tier players out of the whole draft and a few bit players which seems incredibly weak. I’ve seen a lot of debate about the top drafts of the past 20 years… but what about the worst?

Thanks in advance.

The top-end depth of this draft is okay in Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Andrei Svechnikov, and Brady Tkachuk.  That’s not bad and all those players are still on an upward trajectory.  Perhaps there isn’t a superstar in the mix but those are some quality core players that will have long careers.  But there is definitely some fall-off after that as Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Barrett Hayton, and Filip Zadina (all top-six picks) have been depth players at best thus far.  There have been some good value picks (Noah Dobson at 11, Joel Farabee at 14, and K’Andre Miller at 22 among the first rounders) but even at that, that’s not that special compared to other seasons.

I think I’d nominate 2012 as a bigger bust of a draft than 2018.  Nail Yakupov was a bad pick at first overall.  Ryan Murray is no more than a depth defender now, he was the second pick.  Alex Galchenyuk’s in the minors after bouncing around the last few years (and is still fifth in scoring from this group).  The fourth pick, Griffin Reinhart, never scored a single NHL goal.  Now, there have been some good value picks from that class that have given it some depth (Filip Forsberg, Tomas Hertl, and Teuvo Teravainen were all picked in the middle third of the first round) and there are 21 players (and counting) with at least 500 NHL appearances.  That helps.  But 2018’s group should eventually get to that level within the next six years (where it could be better compared with 2012’s class today) and at least the first couple of picks (Dahlin and Svechnikov) are panning out to be high-end pieces.  That just can’t be said for the 2012 group.

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Trade Deadline Primer: Calgary Flames

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With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Calgary Flames. 

After an offseason that saw the Flames’ roster undergo significant upheaval, Calgary has had an uneven, often frustrating 2022-23 season. The team remains in solid position standings-wise, — tied with the Minnesota Wild for the last Wild Card spot in the Western Conference — but fans could not be blamed for expecting more from head coach Darryl Sutter’s team.

Heading into the deadline, the Flames’ status is relatively unclear. GM Brad Treliving told NHL.com’s Aaron Vickers in an interview that his team still hasn’t told him what direction he should head in in terms of transactions. He said:

Listen, we’d like to add to our team, but the most critical part is where your team’s at, right? We’ve got some work to do to get ourselves into a better position than we currently are. We’ve been up and down. There’s been some inconsistency to our game. It’s hard to sit here and start making any proclamations about what you’re going to do at the deadline. We continue to watch our team.

It sounds as though the Flames want to add for a potential playoff run, but don’t want to overextend for a team that may not be capable of true Stanley Cup contention. It’s a difficult spot to be in, especially for a franchise that has invested significant dollars in older, more established players. This leaves the Flames as one of the more interesting teams to watch in advance of the March 3rd deadline.

Record

24-18-10, 5th in the Pacific

Deadline Status

Unclear

Deadline Cap Space

$2.95MM today, $4.44MM in deadline space, 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: CGY 1st, CGY 2nd, CGY 4th, CGY 6th, CGY 7th

2024: CGY 1st*, CGY 2nd, CGY 3rd, CGY 4th, CGY 6th

*If Calgary’s 2024 first-rounder is between the picks of 20 and 32, the Montreal Canadiens can choose to take that pick as their return from the Sean Monahan trade.

Trade Chips

Should the Calgary Flames choose to invest in this year’s roster and add established players, the overwhelming likelihood is that the team would either deal from their prospect pool or stable of draft picks in order to get a deal done. In terms of draft picks, the conditions on the team’s 2024 first-round pick make it so they won’t be able to trade it, as it could theoretically belong to the Montreal Canadiens over a year from now.

That leaves the Flames’ 2023 first-round pick as their top draft pick available to trade. Since the Flames’ fate this season remains unclear, it would be a surprise if Treliving chose to deal that pick without any protections attached. But should the Flames be interested in acquiring one of the bigger names on the market, their 2023 first-rounder may be the starting point for any trade offer.

In terms of prospects, the Flames have a few that could be of interest to other clubs. The Flames picked just three times at the 2022 draft, and their prospect pool ranks 20th in the NHL according to The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler. (subscription link) Prized prospects Matt Coronato and Dustin Wolf are presumably off the table in any deals, and it’s likely that since the Flames haven’t firmly placed themselves in the Stanley Cup mix, they’d be similarly unwilling to deal Connor Zary or Jakob Pelletier. 2020 third-round pick Jeremie Poirier, who is having a solid rookie season in the AHL, may be the top prospect the Flames are willing to make available for other teams.

Should the Flames struggle between now and the deadline, they do have a few players on offer that could be of interest to deadline buyers. A rebuild isn’t coming anytime soon, so it’s likely that Treliving would only want to deal players not in his team’s future plans.

One such player is depth forward Trevor Lewis, who has Stanley Cup experience and could interest teams looking for a cheap, reliable addition to their bottom-six.

Another pending unrestricted free agent is Michael Stone, who has played 42 games in a depth role in Calgary this season and could be a low-price option for a team looking for defensive reinforcements.

Team Needs

1) Another scoring forward

While the Flames have playoff hopes this season, they rank just 19th in the NHL in goals for per game. Perhaps even more distressingly, the team ranks 25th in the NHL with a 19% power play scoring rate. While part of the team’s offensive struggles can be attributed to the decline in scoring numbers of the Flames’ marquee offseason additions, Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri, the lack of scoring remains a team-wide issue. Adding a lethal power play threat and someone to help reinforce Sutter’s top-six would give the Flames a major boost.

2) A player who can provide a spark

The Flames’ most pressing need is to add a scoring forward for the reasons outlined above. But what is perhaps more important is for the Flames to add a “spark,” a player or some players capable of energizing a team that hasn’t looked like the juggernaut they once appeared to be last season. While capable of playing some brilliant games, the Flames have lacked consistency and have too often looked frustrated, and stale. If they can find the type of player who is not only a skilled player but also the type of on-ice force and off-ice leader to help rejuvenate the team’s struggling superstars (Huberdeau, Kadri, Jacob Markstrom) then a hot streak could be just around the corner. For as uneven as the Flames’ campaign has been, they remain one extended hot streak from attaining contender status. While Treliving should remain focused on adding some scoring help, finding the specific kind of player who can help ignite a team-wide turnaround should be a priority as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Deadline Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

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With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Carolina Hurricanes.

After narrowly losing in the second round of the playoffs to the Rangers last season, the Hurricanes made a pair of key veteran additions over the summer to look to cement themselves as a contender.  One of those players (Max Pacioretty) is now out for the season but that actually opens up some different opportunities for them to consider from a salary cap perspective with the veteran’s $7MM AAV now on LTIR.

Heading into action tonight, Carolina sits first in the Metropolitan Division and second in the Eastern Conference.  Accordingly, it’s not a matter of if they make a move but rather when they make it.

Record

34-9-8, 1st in the Metropolitan

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$10.16MM in LTIR relief, 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, CAR/PHI 3rd*, CAR 4th, CAR 5th, VAN 5th, CAR 6th, CHI 6th, CAR 7th
2024: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, PHI 2nd, CAR 3rd, CAR 4th, CAR 5th, CAR 6th, CAR 7th

*-Carolina will keep the lower pick between the two

Trade Chips

While they’ll be a buyer, that isn’t to say that Carolina can’t sell as well.  With Frederik Andersen returning to the lineup just before the All-Star break and Pyotr Kochetkov back in the minors, it’s possible that they could look to move Antti Raanta and take advantage of what could be a light goalie trade market.  The pending unrestricted free agent has a very manageable cap hit of $2MM and has a nice 2.46 GAA in 19 games this season, almost identical to his output from 2021-22.  Such a move would come with some risk given Andersen’s injury history but if they’re able to get a decent asset for the veteran netminder, it might make it easier to part with one of their other trade chips.

One other roster player that seems like a reasonable candidate to move is Dylan Coghlan.  The defenseman was the sweetener that Vegas attached for them to take on Pacioretty’s contract and after playing in 59 games with the Golden Knights the year before, it felt like he’d be a useful depth piece.  However, the 24-year-old has only played in 16 games and has been a healthy scratch the rest of the way.  A pending restricted free agent, Coghlan’s $762.5K cap hit is easy for just about any team to absorb and chances are that some selling squads might want to take a look at him for the stretch run.

From there, they’ll turn to their futures pool of picks and prospects.  On the latter front, Jack Drury is likely to be of some interest.  The center has gotten his feet wet with Carolina this season, suiting up in 21 games and while he hasn’t produced much (just two assists), he’s only a year removed from putting up 52 points with AHL Chicago.  There’s some offensive upside to work with potentially.  2019 first-round pick Ryan Suzuki has yet to see NHL action and is in the midst of another injury-shortened season, playing in just 20 games with the Wolves so far.  Noel Gunler slid a bit further than expected in the 2021 draft, lasting into the second round.  His first full season in North America has gone well and his stock should be fairly high as a result.

Defensively, Scott Morrow will get some attention.  The 21-year-old is having another strong season at UMass and is getting relatively close to being NHL-ready.  That type of profile is always enticing to sellers.  Dominick Fensore is certainly an undersized blueliner (5’7) but he has had some success at Boston University.  He’s in his senior year and isn’t a lock to get a contract from Carolina.  If another team wants him, Fensore could be a secondary part of a swap.  Joey Keane’s rights might also be of small interest; after a decent showing on his entry-level deal, he somewhat surprisingly opted to play in the KHL this season where he has done relatively well.

Other Potential Trade Chips: F Dominik Bokk, F Patrik Puistola, F Justin Robidas

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Forward: While Pacioretty’s injury opens up some LTIR room, it also opened up a sizable hole in their top six to try to fill.  Carolina generally hasn’t favored going the rental route so it shouldn’t come as much surprise that Pierre LeBrun linked them to San Jose’s Timo Meier in TSN’s latest Insider Trading segment (video link).  That forward could also be a center with Martin Necas being more of a winger and the trio of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jordan Staal, and Paul Stastny not really being suited for top-six duty.

2) Playable Defensive Depth: It seems evident that there isn’t much faith in Coghlan when the team is fully healthy.  Finding a defender (or even two) that they’d be more comfortable using when injuries arise or to spell Calvin de Haan or Jalen Chatfield would be worthwhile.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $89,574,031 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Nick Perbix (one year, $842.5K)

Potential Bonuses
Perbix: $82.5K

Perbix has already signed an extension so we’ll cover that later on.  His bonuses are games-played based and typically require 80 games to max out.  However, there are generally a few tiers for bonuses at this price point so he should receive some of this amount.  With Tampa Bay into LTIR, whatever Perbix earns will come off their cap next season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Rudolfs Balcers ($750K, RFA)
F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($3MM, UFA)
F Ross Colton ($1.25MM, RFA)
G Brian Elliott ($900K, UFA)
D Callan Foote ($850K, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1MM, UFA)

Killorn’s future with Tampa Bay has seemingly been in question for a while now with the team having to cut from its veteran core each season.  Those questions will only intensify now as it’s hard to see how they can afford to keep him.  The 33-year-old has a chance at beating his career high in points (59, set last season) which would at least help him hit the open market on a high note.  He should be able to get a small raise on a medium-term agreement.  Namestnikov also appears to be unlikely to return as he hasn’t fit in during his second stint with the team.  He’ll also be hard-pressed to match his current AAV unless he can turn things around down the stretch.  Perry and Bellemare are low-cost veterans that Tampa Bay will either want to retain or bring in someone else to replace them at likely a slightly lower cap charge if possible.  If they look elsewhere, they’d be in line for similar contracts to what they’re on now.

On the RFA side up front, Colton will be in line for a sizable raise.  He potted 22 goals last season and has a chance at 20 this year.  Notably, he’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility which could push his next contract past the $3MM range.  He’s an important part of their bottom six but they might have to get creative to keep him around.  Balcers was picked up off waivers earlier this season and he tested the UFA market last summer after being bought out.  Another minimum-priced contract should be coming his way which could keep him around for another year in Tampa Bay.

On the back end, Cole is arguably having a better year than he did last season with Carolina, logging his highest ice time since 2018-19 in the process.  Having played on one-year deals for the last two seasons now, he might have a shot at a multi-year agreement at a price tag that’s close to this one.  Foote still hasn’t been able to quite lock down a full-time spot in the lineup which will hurt his case even with arbitration eligibility.  He should be able to push past the $1MM mark but his next deal shouldn’t be much more than that, even if they decide to tack on a second season.

Elliott has put up numbers that are hovering near the league average this year which is a good return on one of the cheapest goalie contracts in the league.  But he turns 38 in April and is going to be going year-to-year from here on out.  On merit, he’s worthy of at least a small raise but if he wants to stay with the Lightning, it’ll have to be at this price point at most.  With how their roster is structured, Tampa Bay simply can’t afford a more expensive backup netminder.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($762.5K, UFA)
F Brandon Hagel ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($1MM, UFA)
D Philippe Myers ($2.55MM in 2022-23, $1.4MM in 2023-24, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)

Stamkos isn’t really slowing down and has provided a lot of value on this contract as he continues to be a focal point of Tampa Bay’s attack.  Accordingly, he has positioned himself for a raise on his next deal if he wants to go after top dollar.  In that case, he could land an eight-digit AAV, especially with 2024 pegged as the summer for the Upper Limit to jump up by a fair-sized amount.  But if he wants to stick around with the Lightning, this feels like a situation where he could accept a longer-term contract to help try to bring the cap hit down somewhat relative to market value.  Such a deal would take him closer to age 40 which isn’t necessarily ideal but it would keep the price tag closer to where it is now which would allow them to keep the core around as long as possible.

The Lightning paid a sizable price to land Hagel thanks to what has quickly turned into one of the bigger bargains in the league.  If he continues to score around his current pace, he could make a case to quadruple his current price tag.  Even with a higher cap at that time, it might be tough for them to keep both Hagel and Stamkos around.  As for Maroon, he’s a fourth liner at this point and will be 36 when he hits the open market.  That will likely keep him around this price tag two years from now.

Let’s get Seabrook out of the way quickly.  You might have forgotten that he’s here now instead of in Chicago but his situation hasn’t changed as his playing career has come to an end.  He will remain on LTIR until this deal expires which means that Tampa Bay is going to have regular cap space for a few more years.

Myers came over during the summer in the Ryan McDonagh trade and while many expected him to be bought out to give Tampa Bay a cap credit, he was instead extended at this lower price.  Their cap situation has Myers in the minors right now but if he can lock down a regular spot next season, he could be able to land a deal a bit closer to what he’s getting this year.  Bogosian has had a limited role when healthy this season and is more of a depth defender at this point.  A deal around what he’s getting now is where his market should fall.  Fleury, meanwhile, has had a very limited role and until he can establish himself as a regular, his value is going to remain at or near the minimum salary.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Victor Hedman ($7.875MM, UFA)
D Nick Perbix ($1.125MM from 2023-24 through 2024-25, UFA)

Hedman has been Tampa Bay’s top defenseman for the better part of the last decade and hasn’t shown much in the way of signs of slowing down.  At a time when top rearguards are landing more than $10MM when they’re eligible for free agency, he has been a nice bargain for the Lightning and should continue to be for the rest of the deal.  When it’s up, his playing time should be starting to dip which could keep his AAV close to this one, especially if he re-signs.  Perbix has been a pleasant surprise this season which earned him this low-cost extension not too long ago.  It’s a low-risk proposition as if Myers or someone else passes Perbix on the depth chart, the deal can be buried in the minors without any lingering cap charge.

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Trade Deadline Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs

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With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

It has been nearly 20 years since the Maple Leafs won a playoff round. Despite six-straight appearances in the Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner era, the team hasn’t been able to find any success in the postseason. With another first-round date with the Tampa Bay Lightning all but sealed, every effort from the management staff needs to help get them over the hump.

Remember, Matthews and William Nylander are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after next season, with Marner and John Tavares only under contract through 2024-25. General manager Kyle Dubas is once again looking at making a significant trade deadline move to try and support this core before it is too late.

Record

31-13-8, 2nd in the Atlantic

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$1.13MM in LTIR relief, 0/3 retention slots used, 49/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: TOR 1st, TOR 3rd, OTT 3rd, TOR 5th, TOR 6th
2024: TOR 1st, TOR 2nd, TOR 4th, TOR 5th, TOR 6th, TOR 7th, OTT 7th

Trade Chips

At last year’s deadline, the Maple Leafs were able to hold onto their first-round pick, moving three seconds and a third for Mark Giordano, Colin Blackwell, and Ilya Lyubushkin. This year, that top selection probably has to be on the table in any negotiations that include an impact player. The 2024 first-round pick is also probably in play, though beyond that, there isn’t a ton of draft capital they can move.

So it comes to the prospect pool for Toronto, which is also relatively shallow. Matthew Knies was seemingly untouchable last summer, but perhaps the Maple Leafs would consider moving him this time around in the right deal. Nick Robertson would have been a piece, but given his latest serious injury, he’s likely off the table. Topi Niemela and Roni Hirvonen are mid-level prospects at best that likely can’t bring back a serious difference-maker by themselves.

The focus could turn to some roster players, though that avenue also doesn’t hold much value for rebuilding clubs. Alexander Kerfoot could be included in a deal to clear some cap space, but he shouldn’t really be considered a trade chip. The young defensemen – Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren in particular – are likely too valuable to Toronto’s future to make them available.

Among teams looking to add at the deadline, Toronto probably has one of the worst asset pools to pull from. That means Dubas and company will have to look for creative ways to improve the roster instead of getting into a bidding war on the top names. It’s hard to imagine them winning a player like Timo Meier, for instance, when they have to compete with deep, young prospect pools like the ones in New Jersey or Buffalo.

That’s not to say they won’t try. Toronto has added every year to try and fill gaps on the roster, and this year should be no different.

Other potential trade chips: F Fraser Minten, F Nick Moldenhauer, F Pierre Engvall, F Pontus Holmberg

Team Needs

1) Top-six winger: There is a glaring hole in the Maple Leafs lineup, and it’s been there for a number of years now. The second-line left wing spot has been filled by a number of different players – Kerfoot, Ilya Mikheyev, Alex Galchenyuk, Calle Jarnkrok – but none of them have been a perfect fit. It’s why a player like Meier continues to get linked to Toronto and why every other winger likely will be speculated on in the coming weeks.

2) Third-line center: For a team that is usually considered “loaded” offensively, it might seem weird to see two forwards listed here. The truth is, though, that Toronto is a relatively strong defensive team, with eight capable NHL defensemen on the roster already. Could they improve the back end? Sure. But a true third-line center that can drive some offense would be more valuable.

David Kampf, currently in that role, set a career-high last season with 26 points and has just 32 goals in his 369-game NHL career. One of the problems the Maple Leafs have faced in recent years is that if the Matthews and Tavares lines get shut down, the team has no chance of scoring. Getting someone who can elevate his linemates and drive play on the third line would move them a lot closer than a marginal upgrade on defense.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Deadline Primer: St. Louis Blues

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With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the St. Louis Blues.

This wasn’t the plan for St. Louis. After making it to the second round last season, investing heavily in their young core, and bringing back veterans like Nick Leddy, the focus was on the playoffs and the Stanley Cup. Now, more than halfway through the season, they are approaching the deadline as a seller with some of the biggest chips available.

Injuries – or their recovery – will seriously impact the Blues deadline strategy. But general manager Doug Armstrong has never been one to hold onto expiring veterans when he doesn’t believe the team has a chance at a championship. It will be an interesting few weeks for St. Louis.

Record

23-25-3, 6th in the Central

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$1.186MM in LTIR relief, 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: STL 1st, STL 3rd, STL 4th, STL 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th
2024: STL 1st, STL 2nd, STL 3rd, STL 4th, STL 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th

Trade Chips

There are eight roster players scheduled to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the season for St. Louis, and any one of them could be moved in the coming weeks.

Things start with Vladimir Tarasenko, who has been limited by injury but still has 10 goals and 29 points in 38 games. After multiple shoulder surgeries, the veteran winger proved he could still be an impact player by putting up arguably the best season of his career in 2021-22, scoring 34 goals and 82 points in 75 games. Adding that Tarasenko has to be attractive to contenders who want a bit more punch in their top six, especially because his goal scoring has largely been at even strength over the years.

This is a proven Stanley Cup winner with 41 goals in 90 career playoff games, and even though his $7.5MM contract is substantial, it’s not impossible to fit in with a bit of salary retention. The talk of proven champions doesn’t end there, though. Captain Ryan O’Reilly was the Conn Smythe winner in 2019 when he led the playoffs with 23 points in 26 games, and he took home the Selke at the end of that season as the league’s best defensive forward.

While this year has been something of a nightmare, and he is still on injured reserve, there is some optimism that he’ll be ready before the deadline even comes. O’Reilly has resumed skating, according to Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic, and is the kind of player that coaching staffs dream of adding to the third line of a contender.

Interestingly enough, though, there is a third forward who very well could have a wider market before the deadline. Ivan Barbashev has been told he isn’t getting re-signed, according to Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff, making him a lock for a trade over the next few weeks. While Tarasenko and O’Reilly have huge cap hits that will have to be creatively dealt with, Barbashev comes at just $2.25MM and could fit in almost anywhere. Like most players in St. Louis, Barbashev is in the midst of a down year, with just nine goals and 24 points after scoring 26 and 60 last year. But his physicality, speed, and versatility will make him a wanted man.

All three of those forwards could bring back substantial returns for the Blues, giving them some ammunition to add more talent back to the roster in the offseason.

Other potential trade chips: D Niko Mikkola, F Noel Acciari, G Thomas Greiss

Team Needs

1) Young centers: Could O’Reilly be traded for another young center yet to make his mark? The Buffalo Sabres are certainly happy they included Tage Thompson in the 2018 deal that sent him to St. Louis, and J.T. Compher is still playing a big role for the Colorado Avalanche eight years after he was included in the original O’Reilly deal.

If the Blues decide to move on from O’Reilly, instead of re-signing him, they’ll be left pretty thin down the middle of the ice. Targeting a young NHL-ready center in one of their deadline moves might be the way to go, giving them someone who can grow into a role behind Robert Thomas in the years ahead.

2) Draft picks: This isn’t about podium visits in the summer – the Blues already have some good prospects and aren’t going to be interested in a true rebuild. But picks you get now can be moved later to add players to the fold. They’ve done this before. In 2017, St. Louis was headed for the playoffs but had a decision to make with Kevin Shattenkirk. He was expiring, not expected to re-sign, but a huge part of their attack.

They flipped him to the Washington Capitals at the deadline for a haul, including a first-round pick. A few months later, that pick was sent to the Philadelphia Flyers as part of the package to acquire Schenn. It’s hard for contenders to part with NHL talent at the deadline, but they throw around picks like candy. Adding assets now doesn’t necessarily mean waiting around for them to mature – you just have more ammunition later on.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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