Stretch Run Storylines: Ottawa Senators
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Ottawa.
Many experts had the Ottawa Senators finishing dead last for another season with a team that is in a full rebuild and so far very few stars to speak of. The team also fired its head coach Guy Boucher and replaced him with young coach D.J. Smith and was continuing with plenty of questions surrounding the team and the issues that always seem to arise with the franchise. However, the Senators didn’t look like the worst team in the league — granted they were the second worst, but at the same time, the Senators looked like a team that was improving and the long-term outlook of the team suddenly doesn’t look as bleak.
Draft Lottery
Just a year ago at this time, the draft was a sore spot as the Senators had traded away their first-round pick to the Colorado Avalanche for Matt Duchene. They had the best odds of giving the Avalanche the first pick in the draft. Instead, the odds went with them at the draft lottery as Colorado emerged with the No. 4 pick — still a good pick, but not as bad as a media relations disaster as it could have been had Colorado emerged with either of the top two players in the draft in Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko.
Suddenly one year later, the tables have turned. The Senators now have two lottery picks themselves. They have their own first-rounder (second-best chance to win the first-overall pick) and the San Jose Sharks’ first-rounder as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. With a dismal season, the Sharks are handing Ottawa the third-best chance to net the first-overall pick. Between those two lottery picks, the Senators have a 25 percent chance to walk away with top pick Alexis Lafreniere. Even if they don’t net the top pick, the draft is loaded at the top of the draft with up to 10 franchise-changing players, meaning that no matter where Ottawa lands, they are adding two stud prospects at the draft this year.
Goaltending Questions
With the contract of long-time starter Craig Anderson ending this offseason, the team finds itself in an interesting situation regarding their goaltending situation. The 38-year-old Anderson is a long-shot to return after a season in which the veteran allowed a 3.25 GAA and a .902 save percentage in 34 appearances. The team does have Anders Nilsson and Marcus Hogberg as potential replacements, but neither dominated last season. Nilsson, who dealt with injuries for a large chunk of the season, appeared in 24 games with a 3.18 GAA and a .908 save percentage, while Hogberg fared well in 20 appearances with a 3.12 GAA and a .904 save percentage. While neither showed any dominance, the team has to decide what they intend to do. Do they look at either netminder as a future starter?
The team may have to consider signing a goaltender to fill that starting role, whether that is a long-term fixture in net or a temporary replacement. There are a number of interesting goaltenders who will be available this offseason, including Braden Holtby, Robin Lehner or Jacob Markstrom. The question is whether Ottawa is willing to spend some money in order to add that piece. Of course, the other question is whether to free-agent goalies would want to go to Ottawa anyway with all the turmoil that has surrounded the franchise in previous years.
Rebuild Moving Into Next Phase?
The rebuild has been underway for a couple of years now and the team has gotten some quality play from some of that youth that the team has added with the draft picks its used with its many draft picks and trade acquisitions over the past few years. The team has been extremely cautious with many of those young players as they have put an effort in keeping many of them together this past year with the Belleville Senators. The AHL franchise was the top team in the North Division and looked to be heading for an interesting playoffs before the season was suspended. However, many of those talents are close to being ready to join the NHL club next season.
Players like Joshua Norris, Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom and Rudolfs Balcers look ready for full-time roles next year with several others not far behind, including Alex Formenton, Logan Brown, Vitaly Abramov, Filip Chlapik and Christian Wolanin. Developing that youth will be critical for an impressive full rebuild.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Stretch Run Storylines: Buffalo Sabres
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Buffalo.
The Buffalo Sabres had high hopes the team would make that next step this offseason and the team did start strong once again with Jack Eichel leading the way. However, once again, the Sabres struggled midway through the season and saw them drop in the standings and out of the playoff race. The team in some ways is quite young, but with no playoff appearances since the 2010-11 season, there is quite a bit of pressure on the team to figure things out and get back to winning.
Lack Of Long-Term Deals
One of the most interesting things about the Sabres is that their future is quite open as Buffalo has locked up just five players past the 2020-21 season and will have to start looking at locking up some of their talent long-term at some point down the road. The biggest problem for Sabres’ management is that they have made some poor decisions over the years with long-term deals handed out to Kyle Okposo and more recently Jeff Skinner, both of which currently look like questionable deals.
The team should gain quite a bit of cap space this summer with a number of players about to hit unrestricted free agency, including Wayne Simmonds, Michael Frolik, Jimmy Vesey, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Matt Hunwick and Vladimir Sobotka. While the franchise may bring one or two of them back, it does free up some cap room to add some talent. The team also have a number of restricted free agents, who could be eligible for long-term deals, including Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Dominik Kahun, Brandon Montour and Linus Ullmark. The question is whether Buffalo is ready to lock some of these players up.
Goaltending Questions
The Sabres thought they solved their goaltending issues a couple of years ago when they signed Carter Hutton to a three-year deal. However, that experiment hasn’t gone well either. The goaltender has struggled in a starting role, struggling even more this year than in his first season. This year in 31 appearances, the 34-year-old has a 3.18 GAA and .898 save percentage and finally the Sabres decided to split the starts between Carter and Ullmark.
Ullmark is a lock to return, but the question is what to do with Carter. Do they want to give him one more chance or perhaps buy out his final year. Is Ullmark, who did show significant improvement this season (2.69 GAA, .915 save percentage in 34 appearances), ready for a starting role? Should the team go out and sign one of the many big-named unrestricted free agent goalies this offseason? Lots of questions, but the team must make a decision down the road to fix those woes.
Development Of Youth
The Buffalo Sabres now need their youth to take that next step in their development. The team has finally seen Eichel take that next step into both a leader on and off the ice, which is something the Sabres needed desperately. Olofsson proved extremely valuable in his rookie campaign with 20 goals and 42 points in 54 games, but dealt with some injuries that prevented him from making an ever bigger impact on the ice.
However, what the Sabres need is for more of their young talent to take that next step. Casey Mittelstadt struggled even more in his second season with just four goals and nine points in 31 games and was sent to Rochester to work on his confidence. Promising youngster Tage Thompson also spent the season with the Americans of the AHL to work on his game and was injured quite a bit. Defensive acquisition Henri Jokiharju struggled in his first season as well.
What the team needs is for some of their young players to take that next step like Eichel. Buffalo needs more from Rasmus Dahlin, the first-overall pick in 2018, and they must successfully develop prospect Dylan Cozens if/when he makes the team next year. Others need to step up as well.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Stretch Run Storylines: Montreal Canadiens
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Montreal.
After narrowly missing out of the playoffs a year ago, the Canadiens chose to bring back virtually the same roster in 2019-20 and the results haven’t been as good. As this point, their only playoff chances are if the NHL opts to go with an expanded field over resuming the regular season. Nevertheless, there are a few players in particular to watch for if games resumed and they headline Montreal’s stretch run storylines.
Lindgren’s Time?
The Canadiens have been seeking a legitimate backup goaltender behind Carey Price for a long time now. In recent years, they’ve used Al Montoya, Antti Niemi, and Keith Kinkaid with the results largely being underwhelming. Throughout that time, they’ve had Charlie Lindgren in the fold but other than as an injury recall, he has rarely had the opportunity to establish himself as someone that could legitimately serve as the number two option over a full season.
Just prior to the shutdown, Lindgren had played in a couple of games and it looked as if he was going to have a chance at regular playing time over the final month of the season. If play resumes, he should get that opportunity.
From his perspective, at 26, he’s nearing the point of being labelled a career third stringer if he doesn’t prove himself in the NHL soon. From Montreal’s point of view, they need to see if he can be counted on for next season. If not, they’ll be among the teams going after someone in free agency and with Seattle’s expansion draft on the horizon, they may have to commit a two-year deal to whoever they get which would be a big blow to Lindgren’s NHL aspirations. If the NHL returns to regular season play, how he fares in his remaining games (as limited a sample as it may be) could very well determine his future with the team and potentially around the league.
Domi’s Next Deal
Max Domi’s first year with the Canadiens was impressive. He blew past his career highs with 28 goals and 44 assists while adapting to play center on a full-time basis. Heading into 2019-20, both Domi and Montreal were hoping for a repeat performance, one that would have solidified a long-term contract as a restricted free agent in the summer.
But that hasn’t happened. Instead, it has been a roller coaster year and the numbers haven’t been anywhere near as good. He set a franchise record with a six-game road goal streak but he only has 11 other goals outside of that stretch. His assist total (27) is comparable to that of his time with the Coyotes which, while not terrible, is not long-term contract material either. The team has experimented with moving him back to the wing to try to get him going and when that didn’t work, they moved him back down the middle but dropped him to the third line.
That’s not the type of platform year he was hoping for. All of a sudden, a shorter-term deal is looking more realistic but a strong stretch run could certainly bolster his leverage as Domi is eligible for arbitration. It was only a year ago that Domi looked like a core player in Montreal but that could be changing.
Which Version Of Drouin?
One of GM Marc Bergevin’s reasons for keeping the team largely intact from last year was the hopes that some of his younger players would show signs of improvement. Number one on that list was Jonathan Drouin. While he’s in his sixth year in the league, he only turned 25 last week and after a disappointing season, it was understandable to think he might yet have another gear.
In the early going of 2019-20, he looked like he was indeed taking that next step as he collected 15 points in the first 17 games of the season. But things went downhill from there. He was injured about a week after that hot stretch and the ensuing wrist surgery kept him out for the better part of three months. After returning to action, a lingering ankle issue hampered him considerably and he was held off the scoresheet before being taken out of the lineup in late February.
The first version of Drouin from this season was a core player while the other version is a player that a team would have to provide extra incentive to take on. Now that the ankle issue has healed, the Canadiens would certainly like to see if Drouin can get back to his early season form if games resume. If things don’t go well, it’s a hole in their lineup that they may have to add to their offseason shopping list to try to improve upon.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Panel: Coaching Candidates
We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
To catch up on the previous edition, click here.
Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on potential coaching candidates.
Q: Which current unemployed coach will generate the most interest in the offseason?
Brian La Rose:
Gerard Gallant’s firing in Florida back in 2016-17 was rather stunning. So was his firing this season with Vegas holding down a playoff spot and the fact there were discussions on an extension not long before it happened. He’s known as a good communicator which is becoming more and more important now which certainly helps.
What will also help is that both of his recent teams had a first-place finish under his short tenure which will catch the eye of owners and general managers looking for a quick turnaround. The fact that he has had success with teams in a (re)building stage will be of interest to those types of teams as well. In other words, just about every club with a vacancy (current or future) should have Gallant at least on their shortlist. The underlying numbers and analytics may give a couple of teams some pause but if Gallant wants to be a head coach next season, he’ll have multiple teams to choose from.
One other coach that will likely get some consideration is Bruce Boudreau. While his playoff track record isn’t the best, he has shown an ability to get a lot out of his teams in the regular season. At 65, he’s not going to be looking at a long-term situation but rather one where he can go for another quick fix. There will be teams looking for a speedy turnaround which will have him on the radar.
Holger Stolzenberg:
Due to several coaching changes during the course of the 2019-20 season, there are many high-quality coaches that are available, including Peter Laviolette, Boudreau, Randy Carlyle, but probably most importantly, Gallant.
All will likely draw plenty of interest for teams looking to make changes at the coaching position, but Gallant is the likely prize of the bunch. The head coach did everything imaginable to lead a group of misfits to the Stanley Cup in his first year as head coach of an expansion franchise and continued to show his success in year two. That year ended early due to a bad call by the officials, but the veteran coach proved that he is good enough to coach any team and will be hired quickly.
Gallant does have a few detractors, who point to things such as sticking with his favorite players too long and his unwillingness to play forwards who lack quality defensive play, but for most teams, that’s a positive. Not entirely sure what team might be interested in his services, but he has proven an ability to work with all types of teams and should be a big success wherever he ends up.
Zach Leach:
Even if you feel Mike Babcock and Jim Montgomery are still off-limits due to past behavior and even if you think that Boudreau is played out, Laviolette and Gallant alone make this an elite free agent class of head coaches.
Laviolette has proven to consistently be among the best coaches in the NHL, making the playoffs in 11 of his 15 complete seasons. He has also done so with four different teams, showing an ability to quickly adapt to new rosters and personnel. Laviolette won the Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 and has made an appearance in the Cup Final two other times with two other teams, including 2017 with the Nashville Predators. For a 55-year-old, Laviolette is extraordinarily accomplished and still has plenty of gas in the tank.
Gallant, 56, also has far more to give and is likely raring to go after a surprise firing this season. This is the second time that Gallant has been dismissed seemingly out of nowhere, the other coming in 2016-17 after leading the Florida Panthers to a division title the year prior. The 2018 Jack Adams winner deserves another chance after leading the Vegas Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, an unheard of accomplishment in sports, and taking them to the playoffs again last season.
Both of these coaches are elite and there will draw plenty of interest, with a number of potential openings and a new expansion team lurking. However, if I had to give the nod to one, I would go with Laviolette based on greater experience and a longer history of winning. It’s also worth noting that his Cup title with Carolina is the closest thing in terms of shock and awe to Gallant’s run with Vegas in recent memory, while his most recent Final appearance came just one year prior to Gallant’s. In my opinion, Laviolette is still one of the game’s best.
Gavin Lee:
It’s hard to argue against coaches like Gallant and Laviolette, but I think it would be foolish to overlook the aura that has always surrounded Babcock just because of the stories that followed him out of Toronto. There is a reason why Babcock pushed against the ceiling for coaches in terms of salary when he signed with the Maple Leafs in 2015, earning a whopping eight-year deal worth $50MM. He has been extremely well-respected around the hockey world for a long time and even though things certainly went south extremely quickly in Toronto, there will be teams that want him to come in and establish a winning culture.
No, I’m not by any means saying that Babcock would be my choice if I was looking to hire a coach this offseason. Even looking beyond the questionable motivation tactics he used during his time in Toronto and the stories of player frustration that have followed him around for a long time, there is reason to doubt Babcock’s actual results over the last decade. Since his last Stanley Cup Final appearance with the Detroit Red Wings in 2009, teams under Babcock have gone just 32-46 in the playoffs. In Toronto he was never able to make it out of the first round, though he did usher them to the playoffs in three out of four full seasons.
Still, a Stanley Cup and two Olympic gold medals will keep your resume at the top of the pile for a long time and if he wants to, the 56-year old Babcock will certainly have a chance to coach again in the NHL—a league that has a long history of hiring “hated” coaches after a short time out of the spotlight. Darren Dreger was even on TSN radio recently discussing Babcock’s future, and counted himself in the camp that believes there will be another opportunity for the veteran coach in the future.
Stretch Run Storylines: Florida Panthers
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Florida.
Optimism was high for the Panthers heading into this season. Bolstered with a high-priced new starting goalie and a well-respected head coach (not to mention some other smaller upgrades), they were hoping to be in contention this season. Instead, they’re presently on the outside looking in at the playoffs but are close enough to get in if regular season play resumes. Their positioning in the standings is just one of the elements to watch for down the stretch.
Who Stays, Who Goes?
With a little over $60MM in commitments for next season, the Panthers have some wiggle room to work with this offseason although with only 13 players counting towards that total, they have a lot of spots before they can fill out their roster. Heading into the season, it was looking like Florida would only be able to retain one of their two notable pending unrestricted free agents on the wing in Evgenii Dadonov and Mike Hoffman. Trading Vincent Trocheck was supposed to help their chances but the potential for a flattened or lower salary cap now largely offsets that. Accordingly, they may not be able to keep both of them after all even with Trocheck off the books.
After putting up 70 points apiece last season, Hoffman was producing at a nearly identical rate this year while Dadonov’s numbers dipped a little bit as he was on pace for less than 60 points, a mark he reached in both of his seasons with the Panthers.
Hoffman is about seven months younger than Dadonov and both will be expected to command a reasonably long-term deal this summer. Even in a potentially deflated market, a five-year or six-year term may be doable. As things stand, both should be looking at raises on their current price tags ($5.1875MM for Hoffman, $4MM for Dadonov). If they can only afford to keep one of them, how they fare down the stretch and potentially in the postseason could go a long way towards determining which one stays with Florida.
Bobrovsky’s Struggles
In recent years, one of the themes around Florida was ‘if they only had even average goaltending’. That position had been their Achilles’ heel but Sergei Bobrovsky was supposed to change that. The Panthers demonstrated how confident they were with him being the long-term solution when they signed him to a seven-year, $70MM contract.
Let’s just say that they haven’t been rewarded on that investment yet. The veteran has a .900 SV% on the season, his lowest since his sophomore campaign in Philadelphia when he posted a .899 mark in 28 games. His GAA of 3.23 is the worst of his career by nearly a quarter of a goal per game. These are numbers that are expected of a journeyman backup, not the second-highest-paid goalie in NHL history. Instead, they’re getting basically the same results as last year, just at a higher price tag.
But some cause for optimism here isn’t unfounded. Bobrovsky has gone on hot stretches in the past and carried a team on his shoulders and with the firepower Florida has, they don’t even need him to do that. If he plays even close to a level of an average goaltender, that could very well be enough to get them over the hump. He will certainly be one to keep an eye on if games resume.
Standings Watch
There are a handful of teams that will be unhappy if the NHL jumps immediately to the playoffs without expanding the format and Florida is certainly among those. Earlier this week, captain Aleksander Barkov told George Richards of The Athletic (subscription required) that he doesn’t “think it would be right if we’re left out”.
That point of view is understandable as the Panthers are within striking distance of both a Wild Card spot and the third seed in the Atlantic Division; they’re within three points of each. On top of that, they have a game in hand on Columbus and Toronto, the teams they’re chasing for those two positions. They also have a game against the Maple Leafs that could very well make or break their fortunes. Florida controls their own destiny if they get the opportunity to play out the rest of the regular season or at least part of it. They’re likely to be the team that’s right in it until the end, assuming the end hasn’t hit already.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part I
As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.
Here is a rundown of the top compliance buyout candidates for the first third of NHL teams:
Anaheim Ducks: Adam Henrique
– The first team on the list is a tough call. Henrique has had a good season and the Ducks are not in significant cap trouble. However, with a long list of promising forward prospects and a defense that needs work, the team could opt to move on from the veteran forward and to create roster space and cap flexibility. Henrique, 30, is signed for four more years at $5.825MM.
Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel
– The Coyotes are in one of the worst positions in the league in terms of cap space, so the team would have to use a compliance buyout if the opportunity is offered to them. Kessel has been a relative bust in his first season with the ‘Yotes and is signed for two more years at $6.8MM. He has the potential to improve in year two, but Arizona may not have the luxury of taking the chance. The added cap space would be a major relief for the team.
Boston Bruins: John Moore
– Given the Bruins’ depth on defense in both veteran assets and budding prospects as well as Moore’s relegation to a backup role on the Boston blue line, he has become an expendable asset, especially if both Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are back next season. Moore is signed longer than any current Bruins defenseman with three years and $8.25MM remaining, but the team’s commitment to him seems less than any of his fellow blue liners.
Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo
– Unfortunately for the Sabres, the Okposo signing in 2016 has never panned out. His production dropped from 64 points with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to just 45 points in his first year in Buffalo and that total has gone down in every year since. Okposo was on pace for just 24 points this year and may not even reach that mark. The Sabres would be quick to part ways with Okposo, who has three years at $6MM annually left on his contract, taking up valuable cap space that the team needs to use to improve the rest of their roster.
Calgary Flames: Milan Lucic
– Even with the salary being retained by the Edmonton Oilers on Lucic’s contract, his $5.25MM cap hit is still a pain for the Flames. The veteran power forward is not going to score 20+ goals or 50+ points in a season ever again and Calgary could do more with the added cap space over the next three years.
Carolina Hurricanes: Jake Gardiner
– For whatever reason, the Gardiner signing simply has not worked out as the Hurricanes had hoped. Gardiner, who was signed late last summer at a relative discount, has been a fine addition, but hasn’t been the point producer and power play ace that Carolina had hoped for. Following the deadline addition of Brady Skjei to arguably the deepest blue line in the NHL already, Gardiner and his remaining three years and $12.15MM are expendable.
Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook
– One of the more obvious choices on this list, Seabrook’s contract may the worst in the NHL right now. The 34-year-old has four years left at $6.875MM AAV on an eight-year, $55MM deal signed back in 2015. Over the term of the contract, Seabrook has declined rapidly and is a shell of his former self, regardless of health. The cap-strapped Blackhawks would not think twice about moving on.
Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson
– Johnson is a well-liked and well-respected long-time member of the Avalanche. However, as time has gone on the team has surrounded him with better, younger, and more affordable blue line options. As valuable as Johnson’s experience and leadership may be, he is an expendable piece without a clear future role. Signed through 2022-23 at a $6MM cap hit, Johnson is an expensive piece to keep around just for the intangibles and the Avs could look to use this opportunity to clear some space for some anticipated big game hunting this off-season.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg
– Blue Jackets fans have been calling for Wennberg’s head for years now and may finally get their wish. The once-promising young forward turned a 59-point 2016-17 season into a six-year, $29.4MM contract and then proceeded to regress immensely over the past few seasons instead of continuing to improve as expected. With another three years left at $4.9MM per, Wennberg doesn’t seem likely to get back to a level of play that would warrant his current cap hit and Columbus could move on, even from a 25-year-old homegrown product.
Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano
– The Stars are a team with numerous big names and long contracts, but their most inefficient name might just be Cogliano. Rather than using a buyout to move a heavy cap hit, Dallas could opt to trim the fat by removing a player that hasn’t been a good fit. Cogliano has showed that his six points in 32 games last season with the Stars following a trade from Anaheim was not a fluke; he followed it up with 14 points through 68 games this year. Expecting Cogliano to get back to 30+ point form in 2020-21 in his final year at $3.25MM seems hopeful at best and Dallas could use that space elsewhere with some lineup holes to fill this summer.
Stay tuned for Part II coming soon.
PHR Panel: Offer Sheet Candidates
We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
Last week we touched on potential playoff formats the league could use if the season resumes later this summer, and took a look at how the shortened scouting period affects draft prospects.
Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on potential offer sheet fireworks.
Q: Which players could be offer sheet candidates this offseason?
Brian La Rose:
Islanders center Mathew Barzal would have been at or near the top of the list but GM Lou Lamoriello tried his best to put an end to that last month when he stated they would match any offer.
I’ve long thought that it’s the lower-priced players that make sense as offer sheet targets rather than the ones for top talent and perhaps this will be the year where that happens considering the potentially lower salary cap.
The Rangers are a team that could be hit hard by that which leaves someone like Anthony DeAngelo at risk. He’s having a breakout year offensively but with Alexandar Georgiev and Ryan Strome needing new deals plus Kevin Shattenkirk’s buyout cost jumping, they may have a hard time keeping him which makes him a potential piece. At the lower end, Brendan Lemieux could be an option as New York will want him to take a cheaper short-term deal which leaves them vulnerable to a longer-term offer.
Chicago could be vulnerable on the cap, especially if their currently injured veterans are cleared to come back. In particular, they probably can’t afford to give Dylan Strome a long-term offer and can use his ineligibility for arbitration to try to force that direction. But if he wants a long-term deal, he may have to take an offer sheet to get it.
There’s no guarantee that there will be one this offseason but the pending cap situation makes it more of a realistic option than it usually is.
Holger Stolzenberg:
I feel like many people are talking about teams making big offers to the New York Islanders’ Mathew Barzal, but I can’t really see that as an option for teams. While there was one offer sheet last year that went to Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, I really can’t see teams allowing their franchise player to leave for any reason. Even if Montreal had made a bigger offer, it seems hard to believe that the Hurricanes would have let Aho go. The same would go for Barzal. After losing John Tavares to free agency, there is no way Lou Lamoriello would allow Barzal to leave.
The only way that a team would be able to pull off a successful offer sheet would be to attack a team right up against the cap with a mid-level player with a big offer. Teams need to focus on a team like the Boston Bruins and give an offer sheet to someone like Jake Debrusk, who with a solid offer, might outprice himself on a team full of expensive veterans. The question is whether a player like Debrusk is worthy of a solid offer that might overwhelm the cap of the Bruins as he isn’t necessarily looked upon as a franchise player. However there is a much better chance of success than going after a franchise face.
Zach Leach:
I have always felt that an offer sheet is a tool of opportunity. It is not necessarily best-used to try to outbid a competitor for one of the best RFA’s on the market, but instead to take advantage of a team struggling against the cap or an internal budget. Should the 2020-21 salary cap come in below the estimation, a number of teams will be in that situation this year. For those lucky enough not to be left scrambling by an uncertain offseason, they could go hunting for valuable RFA’s on troubled teams.
No team is more at risk than the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa is lacking space heading into the off-season with a trio of prize RFA’s in need of new deals. I feel one of these three – Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak – is the most likely to sign an offer sheet. Not only can the Bolts not afford to overpay for these players without dismantling their veteran core, but each player also knows that they stand a better chance at playing a bigger role almost anywhere other than with the uber-deep Lightning. It’s also hard to imagine any rival clubs feeling sorry about weakening Tampa, arguably the strongest lineup on paper in the NHL.
Two other situations that bear watching belong to the Chicago Blackhawks and Toronto Maple Leafs, who each have impressive, older rookies heading toward RFA status. 24-year-old Dominik Kubalik has been a revelation for the ‘Hawks this season and is likely to be a Calder Trophy candidate. Now that he has proven himself, a competitor could feel comfortable extending a high-salary, long-term deal that Chicago cannot match. If the Blackhawks do match or are proactive with a substantial extension, it would require a shake-up in the roster or could potentially leave Dylan Strome susceptible to an offer sheet himself. Meanwhile, Ilya Mikheyev got off to a hot start in Toronto prior to a season-ending injury but showed in that short time that he is a legitimate NHL talent. The Leafs cannot stretch their young, but expensive roster any further and would have to choose between Mikheyev and another young star if pressed by a sizable offer sheet.
Gavin Lee:
If I’m looking for a target to sign to an offer sheet, I’d never be going after a team’s best player. Those deals will almost certainly be matched, if they even sign it in the first place. No, I’m looking for that underlying group of talented players that may have not yet broken out or received the right opportunity. Obviously if a team is in a cap crunch it can be even more effective, but remember that the player has to be the one to sign it—as in, it has to be worth their while and you’re likely going to have to overpay.
One name that comes immediately to mind in that situation is Kevin Labanc of the San Jose Sharks. After an impressive 17-goal, 56-point 2018-19, Labanc bet on his own talent and agreed to a shocking one-year, $1MM deal with the Sharks. He’s now arbitration-eligible and an RFA once again, perhaps looking to make back some of the money he left on the table.
Now Labanc isn’t a sure thing. His production dropped this season to just 33 points in 70 games, but if you believe he can be a difference-maker on your powerplay and strengthen your middle-six, perhaps he’s the right one to target. The Sharks aren’t in a perfect cap situation because of their expensive, aging core, and are even down several draft picks after going deadline shopping the last few years. Maybe they would have to let Labanc go if he signed a substantial long-term offer sheet.
Stretch Run Storylines: Toronto Maple Leafs
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Toronto.
It has been an interesting season for the Maple Leafs. An early coaching change yielded some early returns but before long, they were back to being consistently inconsistent. At their best, they’ve shown they can contend with the top teams in the league but when they’re not on, they’ve been highly beatable. A return to form for some of their top players would go a long way towards helping them secure a playoff spot if games resume and those underachievers are highlighted in the storylines to watch for.
Goaltending
Frederik Andersen has had some hot and cold moments throughout his tenure with the Maple Leafs and before this stoppage came, he was in the middle of one of those cold streaks, posting a save percentage of .879 over a three and a half week stretch in February. That’s a below average mark for any NHL goaltender, particularly a starter on a team that has eyes on a long playoff run this season.
To his credit, Andersen was a lot better over his final three starts before this stoppage and that’s the level of play they’ll need from him if they want to contend. Can he stay at that level?
GM Kyle Dubas decided to bring in some insurance just before the trade deadline with the acquisition of Jack Campbell who started off strong enough that he’d have pushed for a bigger role had Andersen’s struggles continued. There’s something to watch for on his end as well – if he wins six games in the regular season, the conditional 2021 third-round pick would upgrade to a second-round selection. Campbell is halfway there; if the season is played out in full, he’ll have a shot at getting there. If not, it will be interesting to see if any proration occurs by the league to determine if the condition was met.
Playing For A Contract
Tyson Barrie’s first season in Toronto hasn’t gone as well as anyone would have hoped. As a high-skilled offensive blueliner, going to a team with a lot of top-end firepower seemed like a good fit for him to have a big season in his UFA walk year.
But that hasn’t happened. Instead, he has dropped to just five goals on the season, his lowest full-season total of his career. It’s not due to a lack of playing time either as he’s averaging slightly more ice time than he was last season with Colorado when he had a career high in points.
Not surprisingly, his name was in trade speculation leading into the trade deadline although clearly, nothing came of it. With the Maple Leafs hoping to contend and them only carrying half of his contract with the Avs paying the rest, it was going to be hard to find a right fit that would have brought them another top-four defender back.
Not only would Barrie rebounding be a big boost for Toronto but it would also be a boon to his free agent stock which has taken a bit of a hit this season before even factoring in the looming questions regarding the Upper Limit of the salary cap. There’s certainly a lot riding on how the rest of the year goes for him.
Matthews’ Quest
Auston Matthews was having quite the season offensively before the rinks went quiet. He sits just three goals shy of the 50-goal mark and if he can get there, he’d become just the fourth player in franchise history (joining Dave Andreychuk, Gary Leeman, and Rick Vaive) to reach that mark. If games resume with close to a full schedule, he’ll have a good shot at getting there.
That takes us to the second half of his quest. Vaive holds the franchise record at 54 with Matthews sitting at 47 in 70 games, a goal per game mark of 0.67. Toronto had 12 games left in the season. At that rate, Matthews would project to get eight more which would have got him the record. He’d likely need the league to play out the full 82 games to have a shot at setting the new record but if that happens, this will certainly be something to watch for.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Panel: Franchise Building Blocks
We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
Last week we touched on potential playoff formats the league could use if the season resumes later this summer, and took a look at how the shortened scouting period affects draft prospects.
Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on who we would want to build a franchise around.
Q: If you had to build a team around one player drafted in the past three years, who would it be?
Brian La Rose:
It’s the age-old debate of what’s more valuable—the number one center or the number one defenseman. Two players from the 2017 draft immediately jump to mind in Colorado’s Cale Makar and Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson.
In Makar, Colorado has a dynamic offensive threat from the back end and considering he has just one full season under his belt, it’s certainly reasonable to expect that he will improve considerably from where he is now.
Meanwhile, Pettersson has immediately stepped into a key role in Vancouver and this season, he proved that his rookie campaign was no fluke. He has shown that he can handle the rigors of playing down the middle without too much difficulty.
Makar is going to be an elite offensive weapon in the NHL. He basically already is. But I’m not sure his defensive game gets quite to that level. Meanwhile, Pettersson has made some strides defensively and has the potential to be that all situations type of player.
If I’m a GM building a team around one of the two, I’d take Pettersson as a result. There are no limitations with him—he should soon be a point-per-game player or better and number one centers are extremely hard to acquire outside of the draft. Makar is an electric player already with room to get even better but will his defensive play improve to where he can be that all situations player? I’m not as certain about that so I’ll take the safer play with Pettersson.
Holger Stolzenberg:
There are a number of impressive prospects who have made quite an impact early in their careers and while I could easily go with a defenseman like Makar or Quinn Hughes as the anchor to my team’s defense and quarterback of my power play, I am still of the belief that if possible, it’s always better to build around your centers, just like the New Jersey Devils have done over the past three years, picking up both Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes.
Looking at all the top centers drafted over the past three years, I’m inclined to pick the Canucks’ Pettersson as the player that I would build around. Pettersson spent his first season in the SHL where he broke numerous rookie records and was often compared to the great Sedin twins. He came to North America and had an impressive rookie season in 2018-19 in which he posted 28 goals and 66 points. He matched that production again this year with a 27-goal, 66-point campaign in 68 games, while avoiding a major injury.
The skilled forward has taken the Canucks to a whole new level of play this season and had them in the middle of a playoff race before the shutdown. Pettersson still has plenty of room to take his game up a level or two and in my opinion, makes the most sense to build a team around.
Zach Leach:
I am a firm believer in building a team around the literal centerpiece of your lineup: a top line center. Look back through the annals of NHL history and you will be hard-pressed to find a Stanley Cup winner that didn’t have an elite center on their first line and usually a top option on their second line as well. A top contender is built down the middle.
The problem with this premise and the past three draft classes is that too few centers have yet to establish themselves as “elite” in the NHL. The jury is still out on 2019 No. 1 pick Jack Hughes, who disappointed as a first-year pro, and New Jersey Devils teammate Nico Hischier is a solid two-way player, but to this point has shown limited star power. Carolina’s Martin Necas, Vegas’ Cody Glass, and Chicago’s Kirby Dach are among a large group who simply have too small of an NHL sample size as well.
Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson is the only player who might fit the bill. The reigning Calder Trophy winner has posted 66+ points in back-to-back seasons to begin his NHL career and has shown strong offensive instincts and a sniper’s touch. However, it remains to be seen whether he will actually continue to line up at center for the Canucks, who have used him on the wing more often than not this season. The winger role would seem to align better with his style and tendencies, but does bring down his value somewhat. Petterson is a hard player to pass up, but I’m not entirely sold that he can be a team’s best player.
So if not Pettersson, then who? If not a center, then what position? A superstar defenseman is another highly valuable asset and there are at least four who fit the mold among the past three classes: Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin, Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen, Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, and Colorado’s Cale Makar. While all project to be elite, top-pair defensemen, only one to me is destined to be a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.
Makar is my choice as the best available player to build around. Between his collegiate career, taking UMass from an unknown to the National Championship game, to his NHL start, a strong playoff debut followed by what could very likely be a Calder-caliber rookie season, Makar has left few questions unanswered. A generational puck-mover who already skates and sees the ice as well as anyone, Makar is also not afraid to throw his weight around and shows good defensive awareness and the speed to make up for any mistakes. Perhaps most importantly, Makar has already shown some prize intangibles in college and the pros, including leadership ability and the ability to excel under pressure. Even on a loaded Avalanche roster, it is not hard to see a day when Makar could be the team’s very best player, as he could for most NHL clubs.
Gavin Lee:
In a year’s time you may be talking about Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko or Kirby Dach as potential options here, but there just hasn’t been enough time for any of them to prove they can be franchise-altering talents. That’s the kind of thing they’re going up against when you look back at the 2017 and 2018 drafts, which provided a huge number of potential league superstars.
It’s hard to argue with the selection of Pettersson, who looks like he’ll be a first-line center for years to come in Vancouver. Hughes, his teammate, would also be an outstanding pick and gives the Canucks a dynamic duo that will make opponents regret taking any penalties over the next decade. Either one would be a great building block for your franchise, just as players like Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, Miro Heiskanen or even Hischier—who is routinely overlooked when discussing up-and-coming talents—would be.
But my choice lies in Colorado, where Makar has quickly taken over as the second-best player on a team already loaded with other top talents. It’s easy to forget that just three years ago the toughest competition Makar had faced was in the AJHL, and now he’s making NHL opponents look silly on a regular basis. The 21-year old simply doesn’t have an offensive ceiling and could well be competing for the Norris Trophy instead of the Calder in a year’s time.
PHR Originals: 3/23/20 – 3/29/20
Here’s a rundown of the original content here at PHR over the past week.
Our Stretch Run Storylines continues as we wrapped up our tour of the Central Division and shifted to the Eastern Conference to begin previewing the Atlantic Division.
Minnesota: The Wild certainly got a boost following the coaching change that saw Dean Evason take over from Bruce Boudreau and Evason’s future as the bench boss may very well come down to how they fare down the stretch (if there is one). However, I believe the biggest thing to watch for will be Devan Dubnyk. Saying he has struggled this season would be putting it nicely and for them to make a push the rest of the way this year and even into 2020-21, he will need to get back to a starting goaltender level.
Chicago: While the Blackhawks would make it to the playoffs if a 24-team proposal gets adopted, that’s about their only postseason hope. With that in mind, players playing for their next contracts becomes their focal point. I took a look at some of the players who are in that situation including Corey Crawford who will be hoping to land another contract with Chicago for next season.
Boston: The Bruins have been the top team in the league for most of the season and naturally, one of the questions will be whether or not they’ll be able to pick up where they left off and hold down first overall. As Holger noted though, one of the key things for them will be integrating late acquisitions Nick Ritchie and Ondrej Kase into their lineup. The pause in the season certainly makes that a bit more challenging, especially if the NHL winds up jumping quickly to the playoffs.
Tampa Bay: After a quiet start to the season, the Lightning have been one of the stronger teams in the East in recent months as expected. Holger assessed their situation, highlighting how the pause in the schedule should help ensure that one of their top players will be healthy if play resumes. That will certainly be critical as if the usual playoff format remains intact, they could be in for a very high octane series against Toronto in the first round.
One of the more intriguing trophy races down the stretch is the Hart Trophy for the player most valuable to his team. There are several players that legitimate cases could be made for if the season winds up being over but that could certainly change if regular season games resume. As things stand, who should get the nod? Make your vote count here.
The Vezina Trophy is going to be a tricky one as well. Statistically, the top goalies have played in fewer games due to injuries or a platoon situation which could open the door for someone like Connor Hellebuyck. However, Winnipeg is barely holding down a playoff spot which may dissuade voters. With that in mind, who would you pick? Make your choice here.
We debuted a new series called the PHR Panel which gathers the opinions of each of our writers on topics around the league. Our first one discussed which of the various playoff formats that have been suggested if the regular season is unable to last a full 82 games. The second discussed how the cancellations of playoffs and tournaments would impact the various types of draft prospects and which ones would be the most affected. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.