Stretch Run Storylines: Calgary Flames
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues (something the league remains hopeful of doing), there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We continue our look at the Pacific Division with Calgary.
The Flames have had a bit of a tumultuous season. After winning the division last year, Bill Peters was let go early in the season for prior incidents that came to light. Their top five scorers from 2018-19 are all producing at a lower clip this season. They’re allowing more goals than a year ago while scoring less per game. But despite that, they’re still sitting in a playoff spot and are within striking distance for second in the Pacific. Here’s what to watch for from them down the stretch.
Scoring Races
Despite underachieving considerably compared to last year, Matthew Tkachuk (61 points) and Johnny Gaudreau (58) are in a tight battle for the team lead in scoring. Both were starting to heat up before the break as well with Gaudreau averaging a point per game over his last 16 contests while Tkachuk had 19 points in that same span. Neither will come close to their mark from a year ago but it should make for an interesting scoring race over the final few weeks.
There is another scoring race to watch for in Calgary between a current winger in Milan Lucic and their former winger in James Neal. As part of the offseason trade, a 2020 third-round pick from the Oilers to the Flames was put in it with some rather unique conditions. For the pick to transfer, Neal has to score at least 21 goals this season and have 10 more tallies than Lucic.
Let’s look at where things stand now. Neal is at 19 goals so he’s two shy of getting the first half. Meanwhile, Lucic has rebounded slightly from his goal total a year ago but he only sits at eight. If Neal picks up a couple over their final stretch, Calgary should net themselves the pick unless Lucic comes back and gets on a hot streak right away.
Rebound From Rittich?
Expectations were high for David Rittich heading into the year. The goaltender was coming off of a strong 2018-19 campaign and was expected to push for even more playing time this season. He got off to a strong start as well, posting a .915 save percentage across his first 35 appearances. That was a little better than a year ago (.911) and it helped him make it to his first All-Star Game when he took the place of Arizona’s Darcy Kuemper.
Things haven’t gone as well since then. In his last 13 games, his save percentage plummeted all the way down to .883. In other words, from about NHL average to below-average backup territory. That’s not the biggest of sample sizes but his struggles and a nagging elbow issue paved the way for Cam Talbot to play more regularly before the pause in the schedule.
Can Rittich rebound after the break or will Talbot, who took a one-year deal last summer to take another run at landing a starting job this coming offseason, continue to cut into his playing time? This is a potential dual-goalie situation which would be ideal for a compressed stretch run but come playoff time, they’ll likely want to stick with one netminder over a platoon.
Valimaki Ready?
Juuso Valimaki didn’t look out of place in Calgary last season. The blueliner made the team and held his own early before being sent to the minors. However, he was recalled late in the year and even saw some playoff action. That had him in line to push for a regular spot on the back end until he tore his ACL in early September. He wasn’t expected to play this season but the break in the schedule has made that a legitimate possibility now.
From a short-term standpoint, adding another defenseman would be ideal for a stretch run that will likely be compressed if it gets off the ground. It’d also certainly be beneficial from a development perspective.
But there is another consideration at play. If Valimaki plays in a single game in 2019-20, he would become eligible for selection in next summer’s Seattle expansion draft. But if he doesn’t, he won’t accrue a professional season of service which means he’d fall under the exempt category. By the way, that applies for any AHL playing time either in the unlikely event that their season resumes.
That presents Calgary with a potentially intriguing decision. It’s hard to justify sitting someone that could help in a late-season or playoff game but are a handful of games from someone who has been off so long enough to justify making him required to be protected. Worth noting, Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin, and Rasmus Andersson will all require protection next summer and teams only have three guaranteed protection slots. It’d be an interesting decision either way.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Stretch Run Storylines: Edmonton Oilers
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We continue our look at the Pacific Division with Edmonton.
No one was quite sure what to make of the Edmonton Oilers coming into the 2019-20 season. Back in 2016-17, the team made a promising playoff run, suggested that Connor McDavid was set to take Edmonton to years of deep playoff runs. Instead, the team collapsed for two straight years, being bounced from the playoffs both years and struggling with a weak defense and a lack of top-six talent. Add a new general manager in Ken Holland and the team under new head coach Dave Tippett is back in the playoff race, beginning to look like that 2016-17 team.
Hart Trophy For Draisaitl?
McDavid may be the face of the franchise, but Leon Draisaitl has been grabbing many of the game-to-game headlines as the German center has finally moved from McDavid’s wing to center his own line and has found success. He has formed his own line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto, which has had great success throughout much of the second half of the season. The 24-year-old who had 50 goals and 105 points a year ago, has already surpassed that point total in less games. He has 43 goals and 110 points through 71 games and is leading the league in scoring.
Could Draisaitl be joining McDavid as a Hart Trophy winner? He is 13 points ahead of McDavid who is second in the league in scoring. With the turnaround success of the Oilers, who are in second place in the Pacific Division, Draisaitl may just be the lead candidate for the trophy.
Trade-Deadline Acquisitions
The Edmonton Oilers picked up three players at the trade deadline in a hope to bolster their defense and their offense to another level. The team gave up two second-round picks in order to pick up the speedy Andreas Athanasiou, while also moving a future fifth-rounder for winger Tyler Ennis. They also moved Kyle Brodziak and a fourth-round pick to Detroit for veteran defender Mike Green.
However, the Oilers have yet to get much of a return on those investments as Athanasiou has appeared in just nine games with just one goal. Ennis has fared better with two goals and four points in nine games. Green has appeared in just two games due to injuries. The hope is all three can make significant strides when/if play resumes. However, if the season is cancelled, the Oilers will only have Athanasiou left as the other two will be unrestricted free agents and no guarantees that they will return next season.
With so few games under their belt, the learning curve for all three players could be significant as they have to learn a new coaching system and how to play with new linemates.
Loss Of A Teammate
With all the tragedy stemming from the COVID-19, the Oilers suffered a separate loss when forward Colby Cave passed away on Apr. 11 when he was placed into a medically-induced coma due to a brain bleed. The forward had appeared in 44 games with the Oilers over the past two years and he played in 11 games this year with Edmonton.
While he wasn’t a full-time player with the Oilers, he was a big part of the team and the Oilers will have to deal with that loss as a team. How the team handles it could have a big effect on how the team performs in the playoffs when/if the league gets the season re-started.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part II
As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.
After taking a look at the first ten teams, we move on to the middle third of the NHL:
Detroit Red Wings: Justin Abdelkader
– When Abdelkader signed a seven-year extension with an AAV of $4.25MM following his career-best season in 2014-15, it was perceived to be a bargain at the time and few expected that it would turn out poorly. Yet, with three years still to go Abdelkader has failed to impress in each of the first four seasons, recording a total of just 78 points and consistently missing time due to injury. On a young rebuilding team, the 33-year-old forward’s slow, plodding game is not a fit and his salary is not commensurate to his role on the club. New GM Steve Yzerman wouldn’t hesitate to buy out the career Red Wing if given the opportunity.
Edmonton Oilers: James Neal
– Last summer’s swap of Neal for Milan Lucic was labeled as two teams exchanging bad contracts. However, Neal got off to a hot start and ended up with 19 goals and 31 points despite being limited to just 55 games due to injury. That being said, the 32-year-old forward, who was a -20 this season, is still probably the worst contract on the team. The likelihood of Neal playing up to his remaining $17.25MM over three years seems slim and the Oilers could use the cap space to add a younger, better winger. If Neal has earned the trust of the team, Kris Russell could be bought out before his final year at $4MM.
Florida Panthers: Sergei Bobrovsky
– Would the Panthers move on from Bobrovsky just one year after handing him a seven-year, $70MM deal? That could be the biggest question of the off-season if compliance buyouts become reality. The star goalie’s first season in Florida could not have gone worse as he posted a career-worst GAA and didn’t boast a shiny save percentage either. Expected to be the Cats’ savior in net, Bobrovsky was anything but. If they hesitate to cut ties with Bobrovsky and his play does not improve, he would undoubtedly become the worst contract in hockey. Though on the other hand, if Bobrovsky goes elsewhere and succeeds and Florida cannot find a suitable location, some would surely say that they didn’t give him enough of a chance.
Los Angeles Kings: Jonathan Quick
– The rebuilding Kings have been trying to move Quick for a couple of years now and it would be a surprise if they did not take advantage of a compliance buyout opportunity. A holdover contract from the days of yore, Quick’s ten-year, $58MM deal signed in 2012 remained a bargain for the first half of the term until Quick hit a wall last year. While his play rebounded this season, Quick is still not playing up to the all-world level that had become the norm. L.A. is still a ways away from contending and can make more use of extra cap space over the next three years than a goalie who is past his prime.
Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise
– The Wild and new GM Bill Guerin came awfully close to trading Parise at the deadline this season and in recent years players who have been rumored to be leaving Minnesota are always eventually dealt. However, the potential trade included the team taking back bad salaries to facilitate the movement of Parise’s remaining five years and $37.69MM. Although Parise showed a return to form somewhat over the past two years, he has never been able to replicate his numbers from earlier in career and the team has generally been unhappy with the results of their 13-year gamble. If the possibility to dump the 35-year-old Parise without any cap repercussions opened up, it would become a serious conversation. More interesting would be if the Wild also discuss Mats Zuccarello as a buyout candidate after he was a bust in the first of a five-year, $30MM deal.
Montreal Canadiens: Karl Alzner
– While there will be those that find some of the bigger names on Montreal as intriguing buyout candidates, Alzner seems like an obvious choice that will improve the roster without any risk of releasing a good player or upsetting team chemistry. Few players in recent history have had their team turn on them following a major contract as quickly as the Canadiens did with Alzner. After signing the physical defenseman as a top free agent in 2017, the Habs decided just a year later that he was not worthy of an NHL roster spot following a difficult first season. Alzner has played just 13 NHL games over the past two years, buried in the AHL for the remainder. With two years at $4.625MM remaining, Montreal would be happy to be completely rid of Alzner’s contract rather than receiving just minor saving from sending him to the minors instead.
Nashville Predators: Kyle Turris
– For a long time, Nashville GM David Poile was opposed to handing out expensive, long-term contracts. That policy served him well for quite a time, as the Predators ended up with a number of tremendous values on the roster. Since the team has started to move away from that practice, things have not gone so well. Turris is the poster boy for this statement. He signed a six-year, $36MM extension with Nashville not long after being acquired by the club early in the 2017-18 season and has never lived up to the expectations. His 54 total points over the past two years is less than the one-year total the season prior to his joining Nashville. Turris has become an expendable player, not only missing time due to injury but also as a healthy scratch. The team has been eager to move him and they likely wouldn’t hesitate to do so with a compliance buyout.
New Jersey Devils: Cory Schneider
– An overpaid, under-performing starting goalie is one thing; an overpaid, under-performing backup is another. It has been quite a time since Schneider was the top man in net in New Jersey and young Mackenzie Blackwood has now taken the reins. However, Schneider’s horrific numbers over the past two year suggest that he isn’t even capable of being an NHL backup at this point in his career. With two years remaining at $6MM, Schneider’s might be the worst goalie contract in the league and a rather obvious buyout candidate.
New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd
– Ladd, part of the infamous 2016 class of terrible free agent contracts, Ladd has never provided adequate value to the Islanders compared to his $5.5MM AAV. The team finally buried him in the AHL this season after recording just 71 points through his first three years. With the majority of their forwards signed to substantial long-term deals, there is almost no chance that Ladd can ever work his way back into the NHL mix for the Islanders. New York was ready to move him at the trade deadline and would be quick to buyout the final three years of his deal rather than continue to pay major money for him to play in the minors.
New York Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist
– While it would be a sad day for the Blueshirts and their fans, the reality is that Lundqvist is the best use of a compliance buyout on the team. New York was considering moving young Alexandar Georgiev at the deadline rather than continue to carry three goaltenders, as Igor Shesterkin looks like the starter of the future and King Henrik has become an immovable contract. However, the team would be far better off retaining both young goalies and moving on from Lundqvist, who at 38 years old had the worst season of his career and still has a season remaining at $8.5MM. That’s a hefty salary to pay the man who would be your third-string goalie next season if Georgiev is not moved. The Rangers have no shortage of options though if they cannot overcome the loyalty they feel toward Lundqvist. Defensemen Marc Staal, $5.7MM AAV, and Brendan Smith, $4.35MM AAV, have both outworn their welcomes in New York and would not be missed in the final years of their respective contracts.
Stay tuned for Part III coming soon.
PHR Panel: Taylor Hall’s Future
We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
To catch up on the previous edition, click here.
Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the future of a pending free agent.
Q: Which team is the best fit for Taylor Hall in 2020-21?
Brian La Rose:
Hall has not done himself any favors this season when it comes to helping his market value. It wasn’t crazy to think that a big year could have had him thinking about a deal similar to the one Artemi Panarin received but now, he’ll come well short of that and has managed just 27 goals in 98 games over the last two seasons.
At this stage, Hall could still fit in on a number one line but is better off as a matchup-beating second liner and that’s where his best fit is. But the teams where he’d be in that role are largely cap-strapped and a flattened or reduced salary cap will only make that more challenging; even Arizona is going to have a hard time keeping him around unless they find a way to get some cap relief.
With all of that said, I think Columbus could be the best fit among teams that can afford him in free agency. Their cap situation is pretty clean and they have some sizable deals coming off the books in 2021 that would allow them to mitigate some of the risk of a long-term deal that Hall will likely still get. The Blue Jackets are a team on the rise with some young talent that could push Hall into more of a secondary role as his contract progresses while in the short term, he’d be an offensive upgrade to a team that has struggled to score this year.
Holger Stolzenberg:
Usually when a team goes out and acquires a star player just before that player hits free agency, I assume that the player, this time Taylor Hall, will sign a long-term deal. Or at least that’s how it feels. The only recent exception I can think of is Matt Duchene when he got traded to Columbus. However, that move seemed more like a gamble and when neither Panarin, nor Sergei Bobrovsky re-signed, Duchene opted not to.
However, I get a similar feeling from Hall. While the situation is quite different for an Arizona Coyotes team that does seem to be up-and-coming, the team struggled once acquiring Hall with a 14-17-4 record—although much of those struggles had to do with their goaltending injury issues.
Hall has been on losing teams throughout almost his entire career and likely is getting tired of it. He has appeared in just one playoff series, losing four of the five games that he played. He might be more interested at this point in his career to sign with a top playoff team because of that.
The best option might be the Colorado Avalanche. While they have a lot of money invested in Mikko Rantanen as well as Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog, the team should have the cap space to lock Hall up as a top-six winger who could turn the Avalanche into Stanley Cup frontrunners for many years to come.
Zach Leach:
Every team in the NHL can and will try to make a case that Hall is a fit on their roster. But which team is the best fit for Hall? At this point in his career, Hall deserves to paid his fair value and to compete in the postseason year in and year out. At first glance, the only team with the cap space and the talent level to make that happen is the Colorado Avalanche. They are the likely favorites to land Hall this summer.
However, you can never rule out the hometown team. While Hall moved to Ontario as a teen, he spent most of his childhood in Calgary. The Flames have a surprising amount of cap space this off-season for a team with a considerable amount of talent. Most expect that they could use that room to replace the potential losses of defensemen T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic, they could opt to go in a different direction and supplement their scoring, especially after down years from many of their top-six forwards. Consider the possibility of compliance buyouts and the removal of Milan Lucic‘s contract and Calgary could have even more spending power. Hall would be able to land the contract he has earned and play for a winning team with the added comfort of a familiar city, no less. The Flames are a dark horse option, but a good fit.
Gavin Lee:
You can bet that Hall will have his eyes set on a playoff team in free agency, but how many playoff teams will have their eyes set on him? The Blue Jackets, Avalanche and Flames are all good fits if they can make the money work, but I have an outside-the-box idea that may just be my favorite fit of them all.
In 2007, long before he was the Hart Trophy winner, a World Championship gold medalist or the first-overall NHL draft pick, he was selected in a different kind of draft. Hall was the second pick in the OHL priority draft, nabbed by the Windsor Spitfires who had gone 18-43-7 the previous year. Hall would burst onto the junior scene in 2007-08 as a rookie, scoring 45 goals and 84 points in just 63 games with Windsor. He, along with a second-year head coach that had only recently retired from the NHL, turned the Spitfires into a powerhouse that would go on to win consecutive Memorial Cups in 2009 and 2010. Hall was named the tournament’s MVP both times.
That coach, who had struggled so mightily in his first year leading the Spitfires, was none other than Bob Boughner. Boughner was given the reins of the San Jose Sharks this season after Peter DeBoer was let go and now has the “upper hand” to land the full-time job moving forward. If he is hired, what better player to try and bring the Sharks back to contention than his old prodigy from the OHL?
Sure, the Sharks aren’t in a great financial situation moving forward because of some hefty contracts they have previously given out, but it’s clear that they won’t be rebuilding next year. GM Doug Wilson has always been willing to go after the big fish and perhaps bringing in another top-flight winger (along with some improved health from Erik Karlsson) could jump the Sharks right back into the playoff hunt next season.
PHR Panel: Assessing Some AHL Standouts
We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
To catch up on the previous edition, click here.
Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on a prospect that made his debut in the AHL this season.
Q: Name a 2019-20 AHL rookie that will have a strong NHL career
Brian La Rose:
Plenty of the top prospects in the AHL got a sniff of NHL action this season but someone who didn’t sits atop my list in Edmonton defenseman Evan Bouchard. While he had a brief recall, he didn’t get into any game action and instead spent the season honing his craft with AHL Bakersfield. That time was certainly well-spent as he worked to hone the defensive side of his game. He may need some more work in that regard but when Bouchard becomes an NHL regular, he’s going to make an impact quickly.
Offensively-skilled defensemen are getting more and more room to try to create offense and that’s Bouchard’s top skill. He was dominant at the junior level and had a solid first pro campaign with the Condors as well. Size and strength won’t be an issue for him either as he checks in at 6’3. These all work in his favor for becoming an impact player quickly.
There’s a case to be made that Bouchard could be Edmonton’s top offensive blueliner as soon as he’s in their lineup. Picture him setting up the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and complementing them on the power play. That’s a recipe for running up the points right there which will make him a very important part of their core for many years to come. If he’s as productive as I think he can be in that system, it won’t be too long before he’s a highly-paid part of that core either.
Holger Stolzenberg:
While I do like players like Vegas’ Lucas Elvenes and Florida’s Owen Tippett, I have quite a few doubts on whether either player will even be given a real chance to become a top player for their teams. However, when I look at Anaheim Ducks forward Max Comtois, I see a player who could really have a nice NHL career.
The 21-year-old was already highly-touted, being a second-round pick back in 2017 and impressed out of camp quickly one year later, making the roster out of training camp, while the team allowed the forward to burn the first year of his entry-level deal by allowing him to play 10 games (he had seven points that year). When the team eventually sent him to the QMJHL, he dominated there in 2018-19.
This year has been even more successful for Comtois, who split time in both the AHL to develop his skills, while getting some practical time with the Ducks as well. Comtois finished with nine goals and 24 points in 31 AHL games as a rookie, while picking up AHL Rookie of the Month in February. He added another five goals and 11 points in 29 games and with the team in a full rebuild currently, Comtois will get every opportunity to take on a much bigger role next year and can be a constant in their lineup for years with the success he’s had so far in his young career.
Zach Leach:
If you want to find a prospect who looks like a perfect fit for his club’s style and culture, as well as long-term plans, look no further than Boston’s Jack Studnicka. The 2017 second-round pick is a young clone of Patrice Bergeron and looks like he could become a favorite of Bruins fans.
Studnicka plays a hard-working two-way game with plenty of skill involved as well. He led the AHL in short-handed goals this season by nearly double the next-best mark, while contributing on the power play and of course at even strength as well. Studnicka finished in the top-four in goals, points, and per-game scoring among AHL rookies and that was even while missing some time to play in Boston.
With Bergeron and David Krejci getting up there in age and heading toward the ends of long-term contracts, a changing of the guard could be coming to the Bruins sooner rather than later. While Studnicka may not be considered an elite prospect at this point, neither was Bergeron when he debuted in the NHL and Studnicka could follow in his footseps while replacing him in the lineup down the road. Few players are set up as well to take over for a future Hall of Famer.
Gavin Lee:
You can already read my thoughts on Joe Veleno and the career I believe is waiting for him in the NHL in one of last week’s panels, so I’ll just name another Grand Rapids Griffins rookie instead (apparently I’m a Red Wings fan lately).
Mortiz Seider was a shocking selection by the Red Wings when they took him sixth overall last June, while other more familiar names like Dylan Cozens, Trevor Zegras and Spencer Knight were still on the board. What we all may have overlooked was the teenager’s performance in the World Championship, which showed just how ready Seider was to play against professionals much older than him.
In his first year in the AHL, a league that has a very short history of teenagers, let alone teenaged defensemen, the then-18-year-old Seider recorded 22 points in 49 games and never looked out of place. The 6’4″ 207-lbs, right-handed defenseman turned 19 just a few days ago and likely could have spent time on Detroit’s blue line this year had the team been any more competitive. There’s no doubt that’s where he’ll end up in short order, but it’s his limitless ceiling as a top two-way defenseman that makes him so interesting. Did Steve Yzerman find his next Victor Hedman? (probably not, but boy was that a fun debut)
Stretch Run Storylines: Vegas Golden Knights
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We begin our look at the Pacific Division with Vegas.
The Golden Knights’ third NHL season has had some surprises along the way. Chief among those was Gerard Gallant getting replaced midseason by Peter DeBoer who coached the team that put Vegas out of the playoffs last season, a move that has paid some early dividends as they’ve gone 15-5-2 under their new bench boss to reach the top of the division. While they’re sitting comfortably in a playoff spot for any potential stretch run, there is still plenty to watch for if games resume.
Reset For Tuch
This has not been a season to remember for Alex Tuch. The winger was coming off of a breakout sophomore campaign and it looked as if he was going to be a fixture in their top six. However, things went off the rails before the year even got underway. An upper-body injury late in training camp cost him more than a month and that setback has affected his entire season. He has struggled considerably offensively and then a mid-February leg injury put him on the shelf again where he remained when the shutdown was put in place.
If there was anyone on the Golden Knights that could benefit from a reset, it’s Tuch. Now healthy, he’ll be able to start fresh if and when a mini training camp is held in advance of games being played and will be at a similar level in terms of conditioning as everyone else. That presents him with an opportunity to be much more of a difference-maker in the postseason after being basically a supporting cast type of player when he has been in the lineup this year. If that happens, that will be a nice boost to a Vegas attack that was in the top ten in the NHL before the pandemic.
Goaltending Minutes
At the age of 35, Vegas was understandably hoping to limit Marc-Andre Fleury’s minutes this season. However, Malcolm Subban’s struggles made that a challenge and the team was ultimately forced to look for an upgrade for their backup goaltender.
However, they didn’t just get a backup when they acquired Robin Lehner from Chicago at the trade deadline for a package involving Subban. They got someone who is capable of handling a larger workload and he’s someone with a lot to play for as he’s slated to be one of the more intriguing netminders to hit the unrestricted free agent market this offseason.
If regular season games resume, there could be a few sets of back-to-backs which would have the Golden Knights well positioned to get through the stretch. But what if they jump to the playoffs right away? Fleury has been their undisputed starter since joining them in the Expansion Draft but with a capable number one in Lehner behind him, will his leash be shorter this time around? It’s a nice challenge for DeBoer to navigate if it happens although Lehner has been vocal that he doesn’t expect games to resume this season.
Scoring Race
While Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone won’t be contending for any scoring titles, the pair have been locked in a close battle for the team lead in scoring, one that could very well go down to the wire if games resume. Stone actually had the narrow advantage before suffering a lower-body injury in late February that caused him to miss the last six games and likely took him out of contention of pursuing a new career high. In his absence, Pacioretty picked up four points to take a three-point lead, 66 to 63.
Stone will be back to full health if play resumes and a small gap like that can easily be made up if they play close to an 82-game season. Pacioretty, meanwhile, would be in the midst of his own scoring battle as he sits just one point of his career best of 67, a mark he reached twice with the Canadiens in the past. If there are any more regular season contests to be played, this will be one of the tighter internal scoring races in the league.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Panel: Prospect Pontificating
We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
To catch up on the previous edition, click here.
Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on a prospect that hasn’t yet made his NHL debut.
Q: Which already-drafted prospect outside of the NHL excites you the most?
Brian La Rose:
The question of when Wild winger Kirill Kaprizov will sign with Minnesota has been ongoing for a while. The first season PHR covered was the 2016-17 campaign where his contract in the KHL was expiring and there were questions as to whether or not he’d come to North America. Fast forward to today. His contract in the KHL is expiring and there is hope that he’ll finally cross the pond. I’m excited to see if he lives up to the hype.
There is plenty of reason for optimism. In recent years, he has progressed from being a good KHL winger to a legitimate star and actually led the KHL in goals (33) and points per game (1.09) this season. A few years ago, the thought was that he could come in and play right away. Now, the hope is that he can come in and play on the Wild’s top line right away.
Over the last few years, Minnesota has been a decent team but is missing that key piece or two to prop them up from being a bubble team. Kaprizov has the ability to help them do just that. Assuming he plays next season (even this year is a possibility if regular season games resume), he could be the player to help spark their turnaround. It seems we’ll soon find out if he winds up being well worth the wait.
Holger Stolzenberg:
I find myself quite intrigued by the prospects in this upcoming draft, but that doesn’t answer today’s question. Considering that I’m German, I’ve always been fascinated by German prospects and with the continuing improvement in German-born players that last few years (very interested to see how Tim Stuetzle develops), I’m always watching prospects ready to come to the U.S closely.
The guy I’ve been most interested in the last couple of years is Carolina Hurricanes prospect Dominik Bokk. He was originally drafted 25th overall in 2018 by the Blues and was a key part of the trade which brought Justin Faulk to St. Louis. Bokk is considered to be quite the talent, joining the SHL at age 18, but has struggled to play among men, scoring nine goals in two seasons with Vaxjo. He then went over to top-ranked Rogle where he struggled even more, but after a dominating performance for Germany at the World Juniors this last year took off, scoring 10 goals since returning, while only averaging 12-13 minutes per game.
He’s expected to arrive and spend a season in the AHL where the Hurricanes already moved out a bunch of prospects out of their AHL system, including Julien Gauthier, Janne Kuokkanen and Eetu Luostarinen to give some playing time for incoming players, including Bokk. I wouldn’t be surprised if he dominates in his first AHL year and we’ll see how he develops, but I just get excited about Bokk as a prospect.
Zach Leach:
There are a number of talented future stars among the selections from the past couple of years—and even more in the upcoming draft class—but in my opinion “excitement” for a prospect peaks the closer he is to making an NHL impact.
For that reason, to me Kaprizov has to be the most exciting prospect outside of the NHL. The 2015 Minnesota Wild pick has been teasing North American fans for years with stunning numbers in the KHL for such a young player. The 22-year-old could be the second coming of Artemi Panarin and I believe he finally makes the jump this summer and takes on a top-six role for the Wild right away next year. Kaprizov is simply a dynamic offensive talent and gifted scorer who I would be surprised to see struggle with translating his penchant for points to the NHL. He would be my 2020-21 Calder Trophy favorite the minute he signs in Minny.
As for more recent picks, I continue to be impressed by Buffalo Sabres prospect Dylan Cozens. A player that I was high on when he was drafted last year, I feel Cozens was an outstanding value at No. 7 overall. For the sake of development, he was better off back in the WHL this season, where he again proved to be one of the league’s best players, rather than with a struggling Sabres squad. However, I expect the well-rounded power forward to break camp in Buffalo next season and make an impact for a team desperate for more talent, compete, and IQ in their forward corps.
Gavin Lee:
There’s no doubt that Kaprizov will get the juices flowing again when he finally does come over, but the will-he-won’t-he of the last few years has me drained of any excitement.
A really good case could be made for Alex Newhook, who has just oozed top-line NHL potential while dominating his NCAA competition. The Colorado Avalanche draft pick—16th overall in 2019—scored 19 goals and 42 points in 34 games for Boston College and was just named the Tim Taylor Award winner as NCAA Rookie of the Year. Newhook was somehow left off the Canadian roster at the World Juniors this year (they won gold, so I guess it was the right choice?) but you can bet he’ll be at the next one, before making his mark at the NHL level down the road.
Still, as much as this may cause some chuckles in the back, the prospect that excites me the most is still Joe Veleno. The QMJHL star and Detroit Red Wings prospect jumped to the AHL last season and recorded just 23 points in 54 games, but that performance comes with a few caveats. First, and most importantly, Veleno played a good chunk of the season as a teenager—something that isn’t normally allowed for a player drafted out of the CHL. His case was different because of the exceptional status he was granted to enter the CHL a year early; five years of junior meant he was eligible to jump to professional hockey.
The other was the overall scoring ineptitude of the Grand Rapids Griffins. Amazingly, Veleno’s 11 goals actually tied him for third on the team, behind only AHL veterans Chris Terry and Matt Puempel. Five of those goals actually came in his final 16 games of the season, hopefully pointing to a higher level of production next year.
It’s hard to explain exactly why Veleno excites me when I watch him play, but he does. At the World Juniors I thought he was arguably the most well-rounded forward in the tournament, and perhaps that’s why I have such high hopes. I think he can be a star offensively in the NHL if he’s put in that role, but I also think he could be one of the league’s best shutdown forwards. What better organization to be in than one helmed by Steve Yzerman.
Stretch Run Storylines: Detroit Red Wings
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We wrap up our look at the Atlantic Division with Detroit.
After a tough 2018-19 campaign, expectations were low for the Red Wings heading into this season. New GM Steve Yzerman was committed to keeping the current rebuilding strategy intact and not surprisingly as a result, the team has struggled mightily as they sit dead last in the NHL by a whopping 23 points. That leaves some big questions ahead, some of which could help be answered if regular season play is able to resume.
Blashill’s Future
With this season being a transition year at best, it was understandable that head coach Jeff Blashill was kept around despite a tough 2018-19. The record is a whole lot worse this season but Yzerman has said he has liked some of what he has seen with regards to player development and compete level. The latter stands out considering they have been out of playoff contention for the majority of the season.
If the NHL is able to get in the rest of their games, that 11-game stretch would serve as an opportunity for Blashill to make a late push to stick around for another season which would be the final one of his contract. There would inevitably need to be a mini training camp and how he’s able to motivate a team that would be getting put through their paces in the late spring or early summer to play 11 meaningless games may actually have an impact on showing what type of hold he still has on the room.
Bernier’s Opportunity
With Jimmy Howard struggling mightily this year (a 2-23-2 record with a 4.20 GAA and a .882 SV%), Jonathan Bernier has had the opportunity to show that he can be the starter. The end result has been mediocre numbers (15-22-3, 2.95 GAA, .907 SV%) but given the state of the team in general, mediocre isn’t that bad.
Bernier isn’t playing for a contract as he has one year left on a deal that carries a $3MM price tag. However, with several notable free agent goalies hitting the market this offseason (including Corey Crawford, Braden Holtby, and Jacob Markstrom as starters and platoon options like Anton Khudobin and Jaroslav Halak), he will certainly be looking to prove that he can be counted in his current role. The stretch run would afford him one more chance to stake his claim to the number one job for next season.
Youth Movement
With any remaining games having no bearings on the standings (they’ve clinched 31st overall even if the full schedule has been played), Detroit should be using any remaining games as an opportunity to give some of their prospects some extra playing time. Filip Zadina was close to returning before the shutdown and should be in line for a prime role. Longer looks at players like Gustav Lindstrom, Taro Hirose and Dmytro Timashov would also be beneficial to see if they can be counted on in a regular role for 2020-21. Michael Rasmussen has yet to play with Detroit this season after playing 62 games for them a year ago while Evgeny Svechnikov, a first-round pick in 2015, has played just four times. NHL action for them would certainly be ideal.
But beyond them, there are other prospects that would certainly benefit from some late action. The initial plan before the postponement of games was that Moritz Seider would get an opportunity to play. He’d be capped at nine games but even that many would be a good introduction before trying to compete for a spot in training camp a few months later. Joe Veleno wasn’t in the plans to bring up as the Red Wings wanted to keep him in the minors where he was starting to play better. But with this stoppage, any momentum from that has passed so it may be time for him to get a chance as well.
The longer this stoppage goes on, the likelihood of AHL games resuming gets lower. There are no post-deadline roster restrictions as long as teams stay under the salary cap and Detroit is in good shape in that regard; they have room to bring up some more players while remaining in compliance. Forget just the mini conditioning camp to get back into shape, any remaining games are basically opportunities for an extended training camp for 2020-21. Accordingly, they need to feature a lot of Detroit’s up and coming talent.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Panel: Braden Holtby’s Future
We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
To catch up on the previous edition, click here.
Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on Braden Holtby‘s playing future.
Q: Where will Braden Holtby be playing in 2020-21?
Brian La Rose:
It seems safe to rule out Washington at this point. With $71MM committed for next season, they don’t have a lot of wiggle room to add another high-priced player and Ilya Samsonov will need a new, potentially pricey deal in 2021. Holtby has been a big part of the Capitals for a long time but they’re close to parting ways.
It’s not a great year to be a starting goalie that’s hitting the open market. There aren’t many openings for clear cut number ones and with the year Sergei Bobrovsky had, teams will be hesitant to sign an expensive deal. Some teams that have a need probably don’t have the money (Chicago comes to mind) which limits things even further.
This has to be great news for Detroit. They have a glaring weakness between the pipes to try to fill and their prospect depth is limited. They’re in solid shape when it comes to the salary cap and with Steve Yzerman at the helm as GM, there is optimism that their days of being in the basement are quickly coming to an end.
That makes them a great fit for Holtby. Even though he’s had a down year by his standards, his track record is good enough that he’d still be the clear cut starter for the Red Wings and could still command a sizable contract. There may be another losing season in the short term but over the long haul, this may be the best situation for both sides.
Holger Stolzenberg:
I’ve always been a fan of Washington goaltender Braden Holtby, but to be honest, I’ve not been crazy about his play the last couple of years. Yes, he bounced back in the 2017-18 playoffs after losing his job to Philipp Grubauer, but he hasn’t been the same since. He finished the 2018-19 season with a 2.82 GAA and a .911 save percentage and those numbers actually plummeted this year with a 3.11 GAA and .897 save percentage, which makes you wonder how many teams will be willing to pay up for Holtby’s services.
In reality, the Capitals might be really lucky that Ilya Samsonov had such an impressive rookie year. Had he struggled this year, they would be in a tough situation. Any team that is interested in Holtby has to be quite wary of how the 30-year old (31 at the start of next season) has played recently and I would not give him term of any significant length.
However, I could see several teams interested in signing him in hopes that he might bounce back and personally, I wouldn’t be shocked if a team like the Buffalo Sabres might opt to buy out Carter Hutton and bring in Holtby to share the net with Linus Ullmark over the next few years. The defense is getting stronger and they have some talent not far away from coming in to help both netminders. The key, once again, is not to offer too long of a deal, especially since the Sabres have been burned by free agents over the years.
Zach Leach:
When it comes to Braden Holtby, the only thing that is certain is that he will be playing in a starter’s role to begin next season. Holtby was one of the best players in the NHL from 2014-17, so while his numbers have shown a marked drop-off in recent years, he still has the experience and brand power to land a major contract that guarantees him a top role in net. That’s not to say that the team investing in the Vezina Trophy winner is making a wise decision, but someone will do it.
Who exactly that will be is hard to tell. A Saskatchewan native who played junior for his hometown Saskatoon Blades, Holtby has no real ties to any other NHL market besides Washington. Beyond a possible reunion with first NHL coach Bruce Boudreau, should he land with a team who had needs in net, Holtby’s destination will likely not be based on any past relationships either, but rather simply the best offer.
While things are sure to change this off-season with the possibilities of a stagnant salary cap and compliance buyouts, right now there are few teams in need of a bona fide starter. Staying with the Caps or moving to the Blackhawks or Sharks would be an ideal fit, but would be very difficult in terms of cap construction. On the other end of the spectrum, the Red Wings, Senators, Sabres, and Devils could use help in net but are likely hesitant to make a major investment when they are not close to contending.
For my money, I would say that Chicago is most likely to figure out how to make Holtby fit. They are the only team in the league without an NHL option signed for next season and are desperate to solve that situation and get back to competing for Stanley Cups. A Brent Seabrook compliance buyout would go a long way to making this dream a reality. If San Jose can move Martin Jones or Buffalo decides to go all-in this summer, I would say that those two teams have the flexibility to be players for Holtby as well. I think the Capitals are prepared to move forward with Ilya Samsonov and a top veteran backup.
Gavin Lee:
When you think of signing big-name free agents, which is the very last team you consider? Maybe the Carolina Hurricanes, who haven’t been a big UFA player on July 1 since, well they’ve never really been one. Perhaps that all changes this year, when Holtby will be available for the highest bidder.
Yes, it would be quite a shock for Carolina to make a commitment of that level to a free agent. Yes, the Hurricanes do already have two goaltenders each making more than $3MM next season. And yes, even with the expiring Joel Edmundson and Trevor van Riemsdyk contracts the team still has an expensive defense corps.
But if there has been any theme to the team’s moves since Tom Dundon took over as owner, it’s that they’re willing to take a swing at that inside fastball and try to put it in the seats. That’s exactly what Holtby would be for a team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals just a year ago. The Hurricanes have shown they can be an elite possession team, own one of the finest defensive groups in the NHL, and after some shrewd trades the last few years now have a young top-nine that could rival almost any in the league.
There would need to be other moves that go along with it. Obviously James Reimer and Petr Mrazek couldn’t both be on the roster along with Holtby, but given that the team still has some time before Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas get really expensive, perhaps one of them could. A tandem of Holtby-Mrazek for instance still might not be that much more expensive than the ones in Florida and Montreal, where Sergei Bobrovsky and Carey Price already make at least $10MM per season. After his down year and with the squeezed salary cap Holtby won’t command that much, but he could still give the Hurricanes that kind of Vezina-caliber, championship-level goaltending they’ve lacked for so long.
What better motivation could there be than to stay in the Metropolitan Division?
PHR Panel: Expansion Draft Considerations
We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.
With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
To catch up on the previous edition, click here.
Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the upcoming 2021 expansion draft.
Q: Which team should be most afraid of the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft?
Brian La Rose:
This is a tough one to answer a year out as a lot will change between now and then. Who is added over the offseason in trades and free agency can certainly affect things. So too can teams deciding to sign players to early extensions or holding off in order to leave them exposed to protect someone else.
Personally, I’m of the opinion that teams with strong defensive depth are the ones that should be the most worried. With a 7-3-1 protection system, anyone with a fourth defender worthy of keeping either risk losing them or their fifth-best forward if they switch to the alternative eight skater protection list.
Using that mindset, Carolina comes up as a team that should be concerned about Seattle’s draft.
Their surefire protectees at this point on the back end are Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei. But does Haydn Fleury take another step forward next year and become tougher to leave exposed? Are they able to get Dougie Hamilton signed to an extension? If so, he’s another must-protect player. What about Jake Bean, a well-regarded prospect that will be eligible to be picked. It’s reasonable to think that they may want to protect four defensemen which means only four forwards could be protected. But with a strong and relatively forward corps as well, they’re setting up to lose either a strong defenseman or a top-six forward. Having depth is great but a year from now, they’re going to lose an impact player.
Holger Stolzenberg:
When looking at the upcoming expansion draft, there are a number of teams that may have to give up some very good players to the incoming Seattle franchise. While I can easily point to teams like Toronto and Tampa Bay as franchises that have a lot of talent, the team that seems to currently have the most talent at risk is the St. Louis Blues. Granted, there are still quite a few questions that need to be asked, including what will the team do with Alex Pietrangelo? If they re-sign him, then the team is overloaded with defensemen and might have to consider the 8 players and a goalie scenario as opposed to 7-3-1.
However, I sense that even if the team does find a way to bring Pietrangelo back—which I think is likely—then the team will have to ship out a blueliner (maybe Justin Faulk) to give the team some salary cap relief and keep a 7-3-1 scenario, considering all the talent. The Blues have quite a bit of offensive firepower with a lot of young talent. The team will obviously keep Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz if he is extended, likely Brayden Schenn–maybe David Perron, maybe not. That’s the veterans. What about Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Sammy Blais? They are key young pieces with a ton of talent. That still leaves quite a few players exposed, including Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev, Zach Sanford…
So, no matter what moves they make, the Blues should lose a quality player. Don’t forget in goal…before Jordan Binnington came along, Ville Husso was considered their goalie of the future. Could he be the goalie of the future in Seattle now?
Zach Leach:
The expansion draft format, which will be the same for Seattle as it was for Vegas, is designed to hurt every team. The protection schemes combined with the exposure requirements ensure that each club must expose at least one or two players of value. However, the rules are most unfavorable not to the teams with the most high-end talent, but to the teams with the most depth, specifically those with considerable youth and homegrown talent signed long-term.
While rosters are sure to change before the Expansion Draft occurs—meaning projections will become much more accurate following the upcoming off-season—there are several teams who already look like they could be in trouble protecting their top assets from exposure. In my opinion, the standouts are the Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Nashville Predators, New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Washington Capitals. Each of these teams have strong depth in both forwards and defensemen, including valuable young players. The Flames, Hurricanes, and Predators will all have to make tough calls on the blue line between established veterans and budding young standouts, while the Islanders, Lightning, and Capitals won’t have much choice but to expose young defenders but will also face a crunch at forward that could cost veteran difference-makers.
However, at least each of these teams has a chance at postseason glory this year (hopefully) and next before their rosters take a hit. The Sabres should be the team most afraid of the expansion draft because they look primed to lose a key young player before they are even done putting together a contending squad. With many strong defensemen and a growing core of impressive forwards, Buffalo will have to expose notable names. On defense, only two of Rasmus Ristolainen, Henri Jokiharju, Brandon Montour, and Colin Miller can be protected alongside Rasmus Dahlin, while upfront the team must protect centerpieces Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, and Victor Olofsson, not to mention the presumed top-six forward they have long been rumored to be seeking this summer, leaving few spots for a large group of up-and-comers including Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Rasmus Asplund, and Dominik Kahun.
Gavin Lee:
When this year’s trade deadline was approaching and rumors started swirling around the Minnesota Wild, a few interesting names hit the news. The team was apparently considering a move of either Mathew Dumba or Jonas Brodin, two players who seemed to be core contributors that were still young enough to be part of a retooled competitive window.
The reason may well be the expansion draft, where new Wild GM Bill Guerin will still be in tough thanks to his predecessors.
Remember that players who have no-movement clauses require automatic protection from the draft, eating up precious spots. The Wild have four such players: Zach Parise, Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Suter, and Jared Spurgeon. If the draft rolls around and all four players are still on the roster (and refuse to waive their clauses), it’s going to be hard for the Wild to protect all of their young talent. Remember, even Zuccarello will be turning 34 just a few months after the draft.
Brodin is an unrestricted free agent in 2021, meaning he may end up on the trade block no matter what, but if they had any inkling of extending the reliable defender it would only complicate things further.
No doubt this was also a consideration when Guerin almost traded Parise to the New York Islanders at the deadline. Moving the veteran forward would really be a blessing for the team, despite how difficult it would be to see a franchise (and Minnesota) legend leave town.