Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Gabriel Landeskog’s injury, San Jose’s early struggles, the potential (or lack thereof) for movement in Toronto, Nikolai Prokhorkin’s less-than-ideal situation, the allure of the international free agent market, and Boston’s secondary scoring troubles.  If your question didn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s edition.

M34: Over-under on games Landy misses?

When they announced the lower-body injury late last month, Colorado head coach Jared Bednar indicated that Landeskog’s injury was “longer than week-to-week”.  So we know that all of November (14 games) plus the final one in October is the absolute minimum.  If it was a four-to-six week thing, Bednar probably wouldn’t have made that comment so it’s safe to rule out the first half of December at the very least (another seven games).  At this stage, I’d be surprised if he played at all in December so let’s rule out the entire month (13 games in total).

That puts the total at 28 games missed and with a light month of January (nine games) on their schedule, I’d take the over on 28.  While he’s an important player for them, they’ll want to be cautious.

JDGoat: Is there anything to suggest San Jose can turn it around before it becomes too late?

If you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic about the Sharks’ chances, I’d look at their defense.  Brent Burns is doing fine offensively but is struggling more than usual in his own end.  He can be better.  Erik Karlsson is off to a tough start.  He can be better.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic is off to a really rough start.  He can be better.  If those three (who combine for over 72 minutes per game or about 60% of their total blueline time), their goaltending duo of Martin Jones and Aaron Dell will get better.

Up front, Logan Couture isn’t going to play at a 10-goal pace all season long.  Timo Meier may not reach 66 points again but he should be able to get past 40 at the very least and he’s not even playing at that level right now.  While Joe Thornton is clearly at the back of his career, I’m not going to completely write him off either.

The potential for this roster is still pretty good even though they’re an older group.  If they did nothing and won seven of their next 10 games, I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised.  If they go 3-7 in that stretch though, then it might be too late with all due respect to what St. Louis did just last season.

@JoshVesh: You see Marincin getting picked? And where do the Leafs go for their backup goaltender? Maybe a trade by Saturday to clear room for Hyman?

Since this was asked, we now know that Martin Marincin has once again cleared waivers, paving the way for him to be among those that are sent to the minors when Zach Hyman gets the green light to return.  That didn’t come as much of a surprise considering he has cleared multiple times in the past and most teams have a player like him (a fringe piece with a fair bit of NHL experience over the years) in their system already.

As for the backup goalie situation, I don’t think they’re going anywhere beyond looking down the bench at who they have in Michael Hutchinson.  They don’t have the cap room to spend much more than the league minimum they’re paying him and at that price tag, it’s not as if there are plenty of notable upgrades available.  Yes, he’s off to a rough start but playing him in the second half of four back-to-backs against the three top-scoring teams in the East (Washington is first while Boston and Montreal are tied with Toronto for second) put him in a really tough situation.  Give him a couple of easier starts in non-back-to-backs (which they’ll need to do if they want to rest Frederik Andersen a bit more) and he’ll probably provide some better results.

I don’t expect a trade in the short-term when it comes to activating Hyman.  It’s not as if Toronto didn’t know this was coming over the summer and they structured their cap situation to be this way where they could keep as much of their talent together as they could, even though it comes with the risk of carrying minimal depth and no cap room to work with.  GM Kyle Dubas is going to want to see how this group looks when fully healthy (something they haven’t been able to see yet given the injuries) and then if tweaks need to be made (or cap space has to be opened up), a trade in the second half of the season becomes likely.

MixtureBill: Thoughts on Prokhorkin in LA? The team is floundering and McLellan seems to refuse to put him in the lineup. When does his European assignment clause expire, and do you see him returning to the KHL before that happens?

There generally isn’t an expiration date on a European Assignment Clause though the starting effective time can vary.  It generally reads that if the player isn’t in the NHL at a specific point in time, they can trigger the assignment.  Considering they brought Prokhorkin up on October 18th and have only played him twice since then, it’s reasonably safe to infer that the initial trigger date was somewhere around October 18th.  Having a waiver-exempt player frequently sitting as a healthy scratch isn’t ideal for anyone.  But as long as he’s on the NHL roster, he can’t force a reassignment.

It’s clear that Todd McLellan isn’t ready to trust him yet and that Prokhorkin wants nothing to do with playing in the AHL so there’s a stalemate at play.  From an outside perspective, I think it would be worthwhile trying to give him the odd game here and there since he did enter the season as one of their more intriguing prospects.  Generally speaking, it makes sense to keep players fresh in case they’re needed when injuries strike and let’s face it, it’s not as if the Kings are doing all that well in the first place as you alluded to.  As their expected selloff happens, that should create an opportunity for him but he’s going to have to make a quick impact if he wants to lock down a regular role.

@CanuckJake16: Do 1st time players from the KHL fall under a different cap salary system, a cheaper option to sign “experienced” players under a tight cap???

The entry-level system is a little different for international-based players (not just those from the KHL).  While a non-European player would see his ELC eligibility expire at 25, any European that signs his first NHL contract at or before 27 is subject to a one-year ELC that is capped at a base salary of $925K before performance bonuses.  That’s why Ilya Mikheyev in Toronto is capped at $925K while Vadim Shipachyov (who two years ago signed with Vegas at 30), was able to get a $4.5MM AAV though the deal ultimately came off the books when he ‘retired’ from the NHL two years ago today.

Every year, there are a handful of players that are signed with your idea in mind, someone that has a bit more experience than a prospect in the minors does but they’re both subject to the same contract restrictions.  I think it’s fair to suggest that a lot more haven’t worked out than those that have.  Nonetheless, it’s an interesting market inefficiency that some cap-strapped teams are likely going to try to continue to mine.  Of course, the top players may prefer to stay at home where their earning potential is higher and then try to come over when they’re not subject to ELC restrictions.

sovietcanuckistanian: The Bruins (lack of) secondary scoring seems to be rearing its ugly head again. The pace the Perfection Line is on is nice but unsustainable. Krejci coming back is a start but do you think they have an internal candidate to plug/play and maybe alleviate some of their woes or do they have to look outside the organization for help? I only ask because Backes is on the IR for now and depending on his length of stay there they may need to explore getting actual help? Thoughts?

Secondary scoring in Boston has been a need for a while now which is why they’ve had to trade for help the last couple of trade deadlines.  Undoubtedly, they hope that younger players like Danton Heinen and Anders Bjork would be able to step up and that a full season from Charlie Coyle would help.  Those three have combined for a line of seven goals and six assists in 40 games which isn’t what they were looking for.

They’re not a team that’s swimming in cap space and with the eventual return of Kevan Miller and John Moore, they’re probably not going to want to make a move until those two get back and their cap situation (without LTIR) becomes a little more certain.  That means for the next little while at least, they’ll be testing from within.

Zachary Senyshyn and Cameron Hughes have had recent looks.  I could see Jack Studnicka getting a chance as well before too long.  Peter Cehlarik is up now and while he hasn’t produced much in the past during his various stints, he should get a bit of a longer leash to work with.  At the end of the day, I think they’ll be active on the trade front for that extra scoring help but that probably won’t be for another couple of months.  Until then, they’ll be rotating through internal candidates unless one of them takes the opportunity and runs with it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

We’re now more than a month into the 2019-20 regular season and the NHL has provided surprise and shock on a daily basis. Some of the most incredible goals of the last decade have been scored early on, including Andrei Svechnikov’s latest contribution to lacrosse lore. With teams starting to understand what they have to work with, trade talks will soon start to heat up with bigger and bigger names hearing their names floating around.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of our mailbag. You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.

If you missed our last edition it was split into two parts which you can read here and here. In the first part, Brian gave Barry Trotz and the New York Islanders the benefit of the doubt and they have responded with a league-best nine-game win streak—you’re welcome, Islanders fans. The second part took a look at the Buffalo Sabres situation on defense and examined how the salary cap is determined.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include San Jose’s goaltending situation, Minnesota’s veterans, Buffalo’s blueline, salary cap projections, early-season surprises, and whether or not some notable trades could be on the horizon.

JDGoat: Will San Jose have to look at an upgrade in net or are they going to be forced to stick with Jones?

I think they’d like to look for an upgrade between the pipes but they’re not really in a position to do from a financial standpoint.  With less than $1MM in cap room, they’d basically be forced to try to match money in any trade they make and finding a team that’s willing to part with a goaltender that’s an upgrade on Martin Jones that makes close to the same money is going to be tricky to put it lightly.

Instead, their upgrade may have to come in the form of a replacement goalie for Aaron Dell.  Technically, they were looking for that last season and one never really came to fruition.  However, with Dell being in the final year of his deal with a more manageable $1.9MM AAV (compared to $6MM for Jones), that would be an easier move to make.  They wouldn’t be looking at getting someone that could realistically push for the starting role at that price tag (his cap hit plus some of their remaining room) but an upgrade there might be worth a few points in the standings over the course of the season if they find a swap sooner than later.

Generally speaking, unless they find a way to shed a sizable contract without taking as big of one back, GM Doug Wilson is going to be forced to look for marginal upgrades this season.  That’s not particularly exciting compared to a year ago but with their cap situation being what it is, it’s all they can really do.

jb10000lakes: Odds that one, or both Suter and Parise forgo their No Trade clauses to get out of Minny (these next couple years are going to be ugly), and how much would the Wild be willing to eat for them to do so?

Considering Zach Parise has already said that he’s not looking to be part of a rebuilding process, I’d put the odds of him being willing to waive as quite high.  However, it’s not quite that simple.  Is new GM Bill Guerin going to be willing to retain a sizable portion of his contract plus assume the risk of salary cap recapture if Parise opts to not play the final few years of his heavily back-diving contract?  Over the final three years of his deal, his salary is a combined $4MM so the recapture potential is high for Minnesota and non-existent for the acquiring team.  If you have to sell low and assume the risk on the back end of his contract as well, you might be better off keeping him.  Now, if Parise rebounds and boosts his trade value to the point where they get some quality picks or young players for him, then a move is more palatable.

Ryan Suter is a bit of a different case.  I don’t sense that their desire to trade him would be all that high unless he wants to waive his NTC.  I suspect the odds of him doing so would be a bit lower than Parise as he’ll still be playing a premium role in a rebuild.  I still don’t think they would need to retain anything to get value in return though.  Quality defensemen are hard to find and while a $7.538MM AAV will be tough to stomach in the final few years of his deal, he still has several above-average seasons left in him.  If Minnesota has to retain anything and assume the same recapture risk as Parise, it wouldn’t be a great move for them unless doing so was to bring back a high-end young talent.

@djay6: Could we see the Sabres moving a D-man?

At some point, yes, a move is likely.  For me, I’d hold off on doing so though until Brandon Montour comes back and gets into game shape.  Yes, that might push Henri Jokiharju to the press box for a few games which isn’t ideal for a youngster but it would be the safe play.  See how Montour fares with Rasmus Ristolainen and Colin Miller on the right side and then figure out which one is the most expendable.  It’s starting to seem like the odds of Ristolainen being the one to move are decreasing and speculatively, I wonder if Montour could be the one to go now.

The market for him would be strong considering it took a first-round pick and Brendan Guhle to get him back in February so a similar price tag would be expected here.  He’s also due for a sizable raise over the offseason at the time where from a team perspective, a long-term pact that buys out some UFA years would be desirable.  Montour isn’t likely to have a big enough role as long as Ristolainen plays heavy minutes and Miller logs more than what most third pairing options are so he probably would hesitate to sign long-term with Buffalo for now.

Of course, if another defenseman goes down with an injury over the next few weeks, that could all change in a flash.

Gerald Arrington: Gavin, is there a list of by years that have the NHL Salary Cap figures increase, have messaged before as I had seen it on a story regarding the Seattle Expansion about 3-4 months ago, which indicated that salary cap will rise when they enter league, I believe you wrote the story, maybe wrong, with it at $81.5 million , and rise each year till Seattle it will be $85 million per team ,what about the years in between , by listing by year. Thanks!

First, here’s the salary cap history by year:

2005-06: $39MM
2006-07: $44MM
2007-08: $50.3MM
2008-09: $56.7MM
2009-10: $56.8MM
2010-11: $94.3MM
2011-12: $64.3MM
2012-13: $60MM ($70.2MM pro-rated)
2013-14: $64.3MM
2014-15: $69MM
2015-16: $71.4MM
2016-17: $73MM
2017-18: $75MM
2018-19: $79.5MM
2019-20: $81.5MM

As you can see, the changes have been all over the board since it was instituted.  There’s no fixed plan in place that says the cap will be $85MM or any fixed amount by the time Seattle reaches the NHL.  It all depends on the increase in hockey related revenues (commonly referred to as HRR) and how much, if any, of the 5% inflator the NHLPA decides to use.  While at the beginning, using the maximum was common (which is why there was a big jump in some of the early years), the high escrow rate has caused them to lessen that in an effort to get that under control.  Personally, I’d be surprised if the Upper Limit goes up by more than $2MM for 2020-21.  It’ll probably be a similar increase the following year as well so yes, an $85MM salary cap is probably a reasonable ballpark projection at this point by the time Seattle debuts but nothing for that season has been finalized just yet.

acarneglia: Teams that are the biggest surprises/disappointments in each division?

I’ve tackled some prediction questions like this in previous mailbags so rather than reiterate those thoughts here, instead, here’s some commentary on the surprises and disappointments over the first few weeks of the year.

Atlantic: Buffalo has been a pleasant surprise early on.  Yes, they had a stretch of games last season before completely collapsing and it could happen again.  However, I think they’re better up front and on the back end while having a better coach.  Perhaps they’re not a top-three team but they could very well be in the Wild Card race which didn’t seem likely just a few weeks ago.  There really hasn’t been a big disappointment just yet.  Florida has underwhelmed a bit but with a new coach (and therefore new system) in place, that’s not entirely shocking.

Metropolitan: Columbus has been more competitive than I expected early on.  I don’t expect them to continue to hover around the playoff picture as the season progresses but they’ve been a bit of a surprise so far.  On the flip side, New Jersey was my pick to surprise in terms of pushing for a playoff spot but they have floundered so far.

Central: I thought Colorado would get off to a strong start but I didn’t think they’d be this strong out of the gate.  There’s plenty of cause for optimism there.  Dallas and Minnesota have both been big disappointments though.  The Stars were a trendy pick to be a sneaky contender and with good reason following their offseason moves but they have just one win so far.  Meanwhile, I figured the Wild would dip a bit in the standings but they would at least still be competitively mediocre most nights.  But instead, they’re getting completely outclassed routinely.

Pacific: No one could have seen Edmonton’s hot start coming, not even the Oilers.  I question the sustainability of it but after a couple of disappointing years, it’s good to see some positives from them early on.  Anaheim’s quick start is arguably even more of a surprise (and happens to be led by one of Edmonton’s old coaches).  I’m not sold on that holding up but John Gibson can really carry a team.  San Jose’s slow start is a surprise on the other side of the coin.  That team has a lot more talent than their record early on and while I expect them to turn it around, they could be soon reaching the point that the Kings did a year ago where the drop off from contender to the fringes happens quicker than expected.

JDGoat: Do you think there’s an early struggling team that might try and make a “desperation” move to try and get things going?

Teams will undoubtedly try – I’m sure several are already actively seeking trades.  (I’d have Dallas and New Jersey while Pittsburgh is known to want to move a defenseman though that wouldn’t qualify as a desperation move.)  However, there’s a reason that the trade market is generally silent at this point of the season.  Most teams want to see what they have, what they need, and what they can afford to part with.  They also want to evaluate early performances in the AHL; are some players ready for a full-time promotion?  It’s a little too early to make that call when the minor league season is only a few weeks old.

The other issue is the salary cap.  A lot of teams are tight to the Upper Limit so they lack the cap room to make any substantial changes.  Those teams need to make ‘money in, money out’ deals and those are difficult to make.  There may be a tweak trade or two in the coming weeks but the bigger deals that would qualify as a shakeup are still a ways away from happening.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.