What Your Team Is Thankful For: Chicago Blackhawks
We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.
What are the Blackhawks most thankful for?
The World Junior Championship.
Kirby Dach isn’t a junior player anymore. In fact, he’s barely a prospect at this point, after playing in 64 regular season games and then being one of the Blackhawks’ best players in the postseason. He’ll almost certainly be part of the team’s NHL roster whenever the upcoming season starts. Despite all that, Dach is about to play against the best junior-aged players in the world. The 19-year-old was loaned to Team Canada’s month-long selection camp and is expected to play in the upcoming tournament unless it somehow gets in the way of the NHL season (which appears very unlikely at this point).
Dach didn’t get to play at the WJC last year, he was too busy suiting up for the Blackhawks. It’s not often that a player gets to go back to the tournament after missing it for professional action, but that’s exactly what the Blackhawks chose for Dach while he and the rest of the NHL players wait around for a season that is still uncertain. There’s a very real chance that the young forward is the best player in the tournament, given his experience and success at the highest level. But even if he isn’t, Dach will certainly be able to shake off any offseason rust and should be ready to fire as soon as NHL games start.
Who are the Blackhawks most thankful for?
Players like Dach and Adam Boqvist may be the next generation of stars for the Blackhawks, but both cost high picks to bring in (third overall for Dach, eighth for Boqvist). Kubalik on the other hand was just a forgotten seventh-round pick by the Los Angeles Kings that Chicago managed to acquire for a fifth in 2019. He wasn’t even signed at that point and it certainly wasn’t clear that he would be a difference-maker at the NHL level.
But a difference-maker he is. Kubalik burst onto the scene with 30 goals in his rookie season, earning himself a third-place finish in the Calder Trophy voting behind Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. He was another one of the success stories in the postseason for the Blackhawks with eight points in nine games and earned himself a new two-year contract this fall. If the Blackhawks have any chance of competing in the next few years, it will be because of savvy additions like Kubalik, who cost almost nothing and has now become one of the team’s most important players.
What would the Blackhawks be even more thankful for?
Breakout goaltending.
No one believed the Blackhawks would go with a tandem of Collin Delia and Malcolm Subban in net, but that is what it appears will happen whenever this season begins. Both players have shown flashes of potential, with Subban even a first-round pick in 2012, but neither has had any sort of sustained success at the NHL level. If the playoffs are a realistic target and there isn’t any help coming, the Blackhawks desperately need one of the two to take control of the net and become the kind of mid-career breakout goaltender that Jordan Binnington was for the St. Louis Blues was in 2018-19.
What should be on the Blackhawks’ holiday wish list?
More young defense.
The Blackhawks have a bunch of talented defense prospects, between Boqvist, Ian Mitchell, Alec Regula, Nicolas Beaudin, and others. But there’s no guarantee that any of them realize their potential at the NHL level and with the legendary duo of Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook clearly on their way out, new leaders will have to step up.
In 2019, Chicago traded away Henri Jokiharju in exchange for Alexander Nylander, moving some of their prospect capital from defense to forward. If any of those young defenders bust, that move could be regretted for years. It’s not necessarily more lottery tickets that they should add, but young players that are a little more established to fill out the depth chart.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Carolina Hurricanes
We’ve now gotten past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.
What are the Hurricanes most thankful for?
Stable(ish) ownership.
Yes, Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon does have something of an “out-clause” in his ownership agreement, but as Sara Civian explained in a mailbag for The Athletic last month, it’s not really something for fans to worry about. Dundon has been great for Carolina overall, even if his methods have sometimes garnered negative attention from national media. The team is sitting in a strong position on the ice and he has given the front office the ability to spend right to the cap, even in this financial climate. The Hurricanes got everyone signed and will be paying Sebastian Aho more than $10.5MM this season thanks to his huge, signing-bonus laden contract.
The test will really come next year, when the team will enter negotiations with budding superstar Andrei Svechnikov on his next deal. After a brutal 2020, ownership all over the league will be tightening purse strings to try and balance things out. Will the Hurricanes be able to lock him up to an expensive, long-term deal? So far they’ve shown no sign of slashing player payroll, with more than $80MM committed to this season.
Who are the Hurricanes most thankful for?
At a time when those finances are so tight, one can only marvel at the contract that Slavin is under. He’ll enter just the third season of a seven-year deal signed in 2017 that carries a $5.3MM cap hit, already an incredible bargain for a top-pairing defender in his prime. But because there was a potential threat of a lockout this year, Slavin’s deal is actually structured to have its lowest salary in 2020-21. He’s owed just $3.9MM for this season, giving the team a little more flexibility in a depressed economic climate.
Of course, it’s easy to point to him and say “good and cheap,” but that may undercut just how valuable Slavin has been on the ice for Carolina. The 26-year-old scored 36 points in 68 games this season, all while continuing to be an incredible defensive player and logging more than 23 minutes a night for the Hurricanes. Those impressive numbers earned him a fifth-place finish in Norris Trophy voting, while the incredibly-low total of ten penalty minutes landed him fourth in the Lady Byng vote. Slavin is just entering the years in which defensemen are usually at their best, meaning he could have even more to give on the ice. Locked up for the next five years, he was recently listed as one of the most valuable assets in the league by Jonas Siegel of The Athletic.
What would the Hurricanes be even more thankful for?
A Dougie Hamilton extension.
Because Slavin is so effective at such a reasonable price and the Hurricanes have some money coming off the books after this season, a Hamilton extension is a realistic possibility. GM Don Waddell explained last month that he hoped to reach a deal before this season got underway, though it is not clear if that will actually happen. Even if it doesn’t happen immediately, a new deal for Hamilton would lock in what is one of the most impressive defensive corps in the league long-term. Slavin, Brady Skjei, Jake Gardiner, and Brett Pesce are already signed for at least three seasons, while Haydn Fleury is on a cheap two-year bridge deal and Jake Bean won’t have arbitration rights. Of that group only Gardiner has reached his 30th birthday.
The question is whether or not Hamilton even wants an extension and whether he’d be looking for a long-term deal. The 27-year-old was on track to challenge for the Norris this season before he was injured (he still finished seventh in voting) with 14 goals and 40 points in his first 47 games. An analytical darling for years, Hamilton looked like he took another step offensively and was ready to show he is one of the most effective defensemen in the entire league. The threat of a shortened or even canceled season will be frustrating for both him and the Hurricanes, who are set to part ways without an extension of some sort. Hamilton carries a $5.75MM cap hit for this year, but that number is sure to increase on his next contract.
What should be on the Hurricanes’ holiday wish list?
A long-term answer in net.
James Reimer and Petr Mrazek are not it, simply. They’re both NHL goaltenders and shown an ability to put up very good numbers at times—they combined for a .931 in eight postseason games—but neither one has been consistent enough to hang a long-term extension on. With the strong roster the Hurricanes have put together, a legitimate top goaltender could potentially put them over the edge. They showed interest in Frederik Andersen earlier this summer and could potentially circle back if he hits the open market in the offseason, but what they really need is a younger option that can grow with the core and really put his stamp on the crease.
Cam Ward was that once, leading the team to a Stanley Cup as a rookie in 2006 and locking down the position for the next decade. But even Ward had his struggles and only played in one other postseason run. In a perfect scenario someone like Alex Nedeljkovic, the 2019 AHL Goaltender of the Year would be able to take a step forward and force himself onto the roster, but the Hurricanes may potentially have to look externally for their next netminder.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Vancouver Canucks
Current Cap Hit: $83,001,878 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Quinn Hughes (one year, $917K)
F Elias Pettersson (one year, $925K)
Potential Bonuses
Hughes: $850K
Pettersson: $2.85MM
Total: $3.7MM
So far in this series, there haven’t been many star players currently on entry-level deals. That isn’t the case here. Pettersson has quickly established himself as a legitimate front-line player and while he spent most of last season on the wing, shifting to the lesser-valuable position isn’t going to hurt his bargaining position one bit. He has back-to-back 66-point seasons under his belt and is in position to command $7MM or more on his next deal, even in this cap climate.
Hughes doesn’t have quite as long of a track record as his lone full NHL season was 2019-20 but it was certainly a good one. He finished second in Calder Trophy voting and immediately jumped into a regular top-four role. There’s still room to grow and if that workload and production increase as expected, he’ll be leading Vancouver blueliners in AAV by this time a year from now.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Sven Baertschi ($3.367MM, UFA)
D Jordie Benn ($2MM, UFA)
G Thatcher Demko ($1.05MM, RFA)
D Alexander Edler ($6MM, UFA)
F Adam Gaudette ($950K, RFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Brandon Sutter ($4.375MM, UFA)
Let’s get the bad contracts out of the way first. Baertschi cleared waivers due to his contract last season and they weren’t able to find a taker for him in a trade this offseason. Barring any surprises, he’s probably heading for a similar fate. He can still be a factor in the NHL and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him sign elsewhere next year but it will be closer to the $1MM mark than his current one. Sutter is another pricey deal for a role player. He can still play on the fourth line and kill penalties but given their cap situation, they could free up $1.075MM by sending him to the AHL as well as there’s no chance he’d be claimed on waivers.
Pearson has rebounded nicely since joining the Canucks and quietly put up a career year offensively last season despite the pandemic shutting things down. In a normal cap environment, a similar showing in 2020-21 would have him in line for a raise but now, even matching his current rate will be difficult. A big drop isn’t likely either but he’s not going to get the contract he normally would in this situation. Gaudette had a good sophomore season but without much leverage (no arbitration rights) and Vancouver’s cap situation, he was basically stuck taking a one-year deal and will hope for better fortunes next time around.
Edler has been a fixture on the back end for the Canucks for parts of 14 seasons and he’s still playing a prominent role. Impact defenders haven’t been hit as hard when it comes to contracts this offseason as some forwards have which should help his cause. However, Edler hasn’t really shown an inclination or desire to test the open market as he has made it clear that he wants to stay in Vancouver. But with Pettersson and Hughes heading for significant raises a year from now, GM Jim Benning is going to need to reallocate a lot of money from their expiring deals to those two. Will they still have enough to keep Edler around? He’ll have to take a big cut for it to happen although it’s worth noting that he will be eligible for performance incentives on a one-year contract next offseason. Benn played a limited role last season and he’s another one that could be shopped to try to clear some money still. Failing that, he’ll play a similar role next year and will be looking at a price tag that’s about half of what he’s getting now next offseason.
Demko could very well be one of the more interesting RFA cases next offseason. Not just in Vancouver but anywhere. Since he was drafted back in 2014, he has been viewed as their goalie of the future and that hasn’t changed, especially since they opted not to hand Jacob Markstrom a long-term contract in October to help pave the way for Demko to ascend to that role. He will almost certainly be their protected goalie in the Seattle expansion draft. And yet he has just 37 career regular season games under his belt (plus a stellar four-game playoff stint from the summer). He’d be lucky to double that number in a shortened season so he’ll still be relatively inexperienced when his deal is up. Could he sign a second bridge deal that’s comparable to Tristan Jarry’s three-year, $10.5MM pact that he recently inked? Sure, but that walks him to UFA eligibility at 28 which isn’t ideal. Suffice it to say, there’s a lot riding on this limited season for Demko.
Two Years Remaining
F Jay Beagle ($3MM, UFA)
F Brock Boeser ($5.875MM, RFA)
F Loui Eriksson ($6MM, UFA)
G Braden Holtby ($4.3MM, UFA)
F Antoine Roussel ($3MM, UFA)
Again, let’s get the bad out of the way first. Eriksson hasn’t come close to living up to his contract and he quite became another addition to the list of ill-fated 2016 UFA deals. He’s another candidate to be buried in the minors if they need to try to free up some cap room. The same can be said for Beagle who can still win faceoffs but is making way too much for someone that’s basically just a specialist on the draw at this stage of his career.
As for Boeser, he has been a capable top-six winger in his three full NHL seasons although staying healthy has been a challenge at times. He’s definitely a part of the core although a $7.5MM qualifying offer is required to retain his RFA rights. That seemed reasonable back at the time but the market being what it is now and the cap flattening out, making room for that deal will be a bit trickier. Roussel could have easily gone in the previous paragraph but he can still play an effective energy role. He’s overpaid in that spot and will be looking at a lot less money two years from now but at least he provides some value.
Holtby was signed to act as a bridge goaltender for Demko to eventually move into the number one slot. He could be appealing in expansion to the Kraken depending on how next season goes but with Demko expected to get the starting role eventually, Holtby may be hard-pressed to find a number one opening two years from now which means his next price tag could be a bit lower.
Three Years Remaining
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
F J.T. Miller ($5.25MM, UFA)
Horvat doesn’t put up the offensive numbers that a true number one center does but when you factor everything else in, he’s a capable number one center. He plays a lot of heavy defensive minutes while being the captain. Assuming he hovers around the 60-point mark (he played above that rate last season), he’ll be highly coveted on the open market and should garner a sizable raise. Miller’s acquisition was questioned at the time but he had the best season of his career in 2019-20, tallying over a point per game while logging more than 20 minutes a game for the first time. If he shows this wasn’t just some good luck, he too will be coveted by many teams in free agency which means a raise would be on the horizon for him as well. Ferland’s future is uncertain due to lingering concussion trouble. He’s hoping to return for next season but hasn’t been cleared yet. If he doesn’t get the green light, he’ll be eligible for LTIR which will at least give the Canucks some short-term breathing room on the cap.
Free Agent Profile: Derick Brassard
Three years ago, Derick Brassard scored 21 goals during the regular season, split between the Ottawa Senators and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Then Brassard found himself struggling the following year. He couldn’t make his mark in his first full season in Pittsburgh and found himself traded to Florida where he struggled even more and then included into a trade deadline to deal to Colorado.
For a short while, it almost looked as if Brassard’s career as a productive middle-six player was at an end in the NHL … until he signed up with the New York Islanders. Brassard proved to be a solid fit in Barry Trotz’ system, posting 10 goals and 32 points in 66 games and another eight points during the playoffs, fitting in throughout the Islanders’ lineup. While those numbers don’t jump off the page, the 33-year-old provided much-needed depth on the team and could provide that almost anywhere.
Of course, Brassard was initially brought in to New York to replace departed center Valtteri Filppula, who left for Detroit. However, Brassard rarely even played the center position as he struggled with the defensive angle of that position and settled in as a fill-in-the-gap forward instead, something the team surely has considered when it comes to bringing him back.
Potential Suitors
The Islanders would make the most sense as the team still has moves it must make while it waits to get star restricted free agent Mathew Barzal signed. However, with limited cap space, will the Islanders opt to bring back Brassard? The Islanders could go a cheaper route as they have a number of young AHL players that could be ready to break onto the team, including Oliver Wahlstrom, Otto Koivula and Kieffer Bellows. However, it might be best to have a veteran on hand just in case that the three aren’t ready to step in on an everyday basis.
There have been reports that Brassard has received interest overseas, but the veteran has indicated he would rather stay in the NHL if he can garner a contract.
Another team that could come calling as the season approaches could be his former team, the New York Rangers. Brassard, who put up his best numbers of his career with the Rangers, might prove to be a useful piece to the short-term puzzle. The Rangers could use some bottom-six depth, especially at center and Brassard could fill that void for a year.
Projected Contract
Brassard didn’t sign until August last season, suggesting that he is willing to wait for a team that wants to look at what it has before grabbing him. That is likely to happen again as the forward will have to wait for the remaining free agents to sign before he gets signed. No matter what, Brassard is more likely to ink another short-term deal, one or two years at most, likely for no more than $1MM. Asking for more with so many teams capped out seems unlikely.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Boston Bruins
It’s Thanksgiving this week in the United States and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.
What are the Bruins most thankful for?
Their proven veteran core.
Up front, their top line is still among the best number one units in the entire league and accounted for just over 47% of their goals last season. While that’s an indictment of their secondary scoring, it also shows how dominant the trio of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Patrice Bergeron has been. It’s a line that just gets the job done nightly although they won’t all be available for the start of next season. Once they’re all healthy though, watch for them to pick up right where they left off.
That veteran core also includes goaltenders Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak. The pair have formed a very strong tandem the last two seasons and with a schedule that figures to feature more back-to-backs, few teams will be better equipped for that than the Bruins whose goaltending should once again be near the top of the league.
Who are the Bruins most thankful for?
Pastrnak would be an easy choice here as the young sniper on the rise to stardom but at this point, they may be most thankful for Marchand. Over the years, he has emerged from being an agitator who could contribute in a secondary role to a legitimate star (who can still agitate from time to time). Not all top liners take a regular turn killing penalties but he does which has led him to average more than 19 minutes per game in each of the last four years. He has averaged over a point per game in that span as well. For all of that, they’re paying a price tag that some 50-point players were getting in free agency not long ago at $6.25MM. Better yet, he’s locked up at that rate through 2025. Marchand has been a fixture in Boston for more than a decade and with that contract, he’ll continue to be one for several years to come.
What would the Bruins be even more thankful for?
A top-four left-shot defenseman.
Between the departures of Torey Krug (St. Louis) and Zdeno Chara (unsigned free agent), the Bruins have lost over 41 minutes per game from the left side of their back end and a lot of offense. Management showed that they believe that Matt Grzelcyk is ready for a larger role when they handed him a four-year, $14.75MM deal last month. But he hasn’t played in that role before and neither has anyone else in the organization – John Moore is more of a depth option while their prospects are still largely untested at the NHL level. Boston is in good shape on the right side led by Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo but they’d feel a whole lot better with a proven option on the left to go with them.
What should be on the Bruins’ Holiday Wish List?
Beyond that top-four left-shot defender, the Bruins could also stand to try to upgrade their secondary scoring some more. Craig Smith was a nice addition but knowing that Pastrnak will miss time (and potentially Marchand), they’re going to take a step back offensively in the early going. They’re one of the few teams that’s willing to spend and still has a bit more than nominal cap room remaining. Can they afford a top-six forward? Not as things stand but if they strike out on adding a defender, a middle-six winger that’s looking to try their luck on the open market again next season would certainly help their chances and really give them three lines capable of producing when everyone is healthy.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Los Angeles Kings
Current Cap Hit: $67,879,285 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Michael Anderson (two years, $925K)
F Quinton Byfield (three years, $925K)
F Blake Lizotte (one year, $925K)
F Gabriel Vilardi (two years, $894K)
Potential Bonuses:
Anderson: $850K
Byfield: $2.65MM
Lizotte: $850K
Vilardi: $850K
Total: $5.2MM
It has been a tough couple of years for Vilardi who has had lingering back issues to contend with. Fortunately, he was able to make it up to the Kings in the weeks before the pandemic shut things down and he did pretty well in a limited role. He’ll have a shot at a regular spot down the middle next season although he’ll be battling Byfield, the second-overall pick last month, for playing time. He still has junior eligibility but with the OHL season not starting until February, it’s likely that he’ll break camp with the Kings. Lizotte was a regular in the bottom six a year ago and assuming he can build off that performance, he should be able to garner at least a small raise next offseason.
As for Anderson, he’s like Vilardi in that he was able to get a brief look with Los Angeles before the pandemic hit and it was probably enough to earn him a spot as GM Rob Blake didn’t change up too much on his back end. A full season should have him in line for a modest raise but given that his cumulative experience will be less than a regular 82-game campaign, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team try to get him to take a bit less than his qualifying offer while giving him a one-way pact. Tobias Bjornfot (three years, $894K) broke camp with the Kings a year ago and could potentially do so again but it’s hard to imagine them burning the first year of his entry-level deal at this time.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Michael Amadio ($700K, RFA)
F Alex Iafallo ($2.425MM, UFA)
F Trevor Moore ($775K, RFA)
D Matt Roy ($700K, RFA)
Iafallo has very quietly become one of the better undrafted college free agent signings in recent years. He has worked his way up to a top-six spot and very quietly finished second on the team in scoring last season. This current UFA market hasn’t been the kindest to wingers but a similar showing from him next season should help generate plenty of interest which should secure him a nice raise with some security. Moore was brought in from Toronto near the trade deadline and was relatively productive in limited action. The first step is simply locking down a regular spot which is something that hasn’t happened yet and if he can do that, he’ll be well-positioned for at least a small raise although his arbitration eligibility may hurt him more than help him. Amadio locked down a regular role last season and should be poised to build on that in 2020-21 which should comfortably move him out of league minimum territory.
Roy gave the Kings 18 minutes a night while being their best blueliner from a possession perspective. A repeat performance could give him a strong enough platform to at least triple his current salary. Any time a team can get a capable blueliner for the minimum, they’re thrilled.
Two Years Remaining
F Dustin Brown ($5.875MM, UFA)
F Jeff Carter ($5.273MM, UFA)
F Martin Frk ($725K, UFA)
F Adrian Kempe ($2MM, RFA)
D Olli Maatta ($3.333MM, UFA)*
D Kurtis MacDermid ($875K, UFA)
G Calvin Petersen ($858K, UFA)
*- Chicago is retaining an addition $750K of Maatta’s cap hit and salary
There are times where Brown has lived up to his price tag and others where it hasn’t been close. He currently falls between the two as someone that’s paid to be a top-six winger and produces like a third-liner. He’ll nearly be 38 when his next contract starts and he’ll be hard-pressed to come close to that AAV. Carter is another player that’s on the downswing and it could very well be his last deal. If not, he’ll be going year to year, potentially with some performance incentives. Kempe is defensively strong while his offensive production has been consistently inconsistent. This bridge deal makes a lot of sense for both sides and it will be his ability (or lack thereof) to improve at the offensive end that determines whether he’s a core piece of the future that can command a long-term deal or someone that has to take a lot of short-term pacts. Frk was a strong scorer with AHL Ontario last season and did well enough to earn a two-year, one-way deal for his troubles although he could also be a candidate to be waived if other prospects show that they’re ready.
Maatta was brought in as a salary dump from the Blackhawks but he could very well be in line for a large role next season. Still just 26, his contract could certainly be looked at more favorably if he can handle the increased ice time. On the other hand, further struggles could lead to a 50% pay cut or more two years from now. MacDermid is probably best suited to be a seventh option at this point and players in that situation are typically either retained at that price point or replaced by someone else at a similar rate.
Petersen has more than held his own in his first two partial seasons with the Kings although it is just a 19-game sample size. As things stand, he is potentially their starter of the future and that could have him well-positioned for a significant jump into the multi-million range if all goes well.
Three Years Remaining
F Austin Wagner ($1.133MM, RFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.9MM, UFA)
Wagner has a slightly higher price tag than a lot of fourth liners have had to take this offseason but there is still some upside (he’s only 23) and it’s not as if Los Angeles is short on cap space. It’s a deal that looks a little expensive now but if he progresses a bit at the offensive end, it could be a bargain by the end.
Quick has been a fixture between the pipes in Los Angeles for more than a decade. However, his performance tapered off considerably two years ago and only improved a little bit last season. Part of that is the team in front of him – the Kings are no longer contenders as they were before – but at 34, age is starting to creep up to him. He remains the starter and that price tag isn’t overly high for someone in that range as it’s only a bit above the median among starters but they haven’t received much bang for that buck lately. As Petersen contends for more playing time, that’s not likely to change although Los Angeles will be better for it in the long run if he can ascend to that number one role and push Quick into playing less.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Arizona Coyotes
It’s Thanksgiving this week in the United States and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.
What are the Coyotes most thankful for?
New management.
2020 has not been good to the Coyotes. The team was docked draft picks for improper prospect testing, had their general manager leave the team right before the postseason began, and then watched Taylor Hall—who cost three prospects and two high draft picks—leave in free agency only to sign a one-year deal in Buffalo, a team that has had even less on-ice success in recent years. Then what was left of their scouting department, running the draft without input from their new GM, selected a player that was immediately in the middle of a public relations firestorm, with the team eventually renouncing his rights. The Coyotes would end up with just four players from the 2020 draft, none selected higher than 142nd.
It was just blow after blow to an organization that seemed to be headed in the right direction after securing new, stable ownership last year.
Now, thankful for Bill Armstrong finally taking the reins of the front office, the Coyotes have a long way back. Armstrong has already made an important move, even if it did fly somewhat under the radar in NHL circles. The Coyotes secured the employment of Darryl Plandowski, who had served as assistant director of amateur scouting in Tampa Bay. Plandowski is very well-respected across the industry as a leading scouting mind and hopefully will be able to turn around a department that had caused catastrophic penalties for the organization, not to mention the fact that out of the last four Coyotes drafts (not including 2020), only Jakob Chychrun, Clayton Keller, and Barrett Hayton have actually made it to the NHL. Armstrong and Plandowski have a ton of work to do.
Who are the Coyotes most thankful for?
Jakob Chychrun.
It seems clear now that Keller isn’t going to become the franchise-leading, game-changing offensive presence that the Coyotes hoped they were going to get when they selected him seventh overall in 2016. It’s not that Keller is a bad player, far from it. But since scoring 65 points in his rookie year and finishing third in Calder voting, he hasn’t taken any real developmental steps—even seeing his scoring totals go down in each following season. Keller is only just beginning an eight-year extension signed last September, which will carry a $7.15MM cap hit through the 2027-28 season. Even if he does get back on track and improve his offensive totals, that deal doesn’t leave a lot of chance for excess value.
But all is not lost. The Coyotes had another first-round pick in 2016, this time 16th overall. That’s where they selected Chychrun, who, despite dealing with injury, has developed into a legitimate force on the blueline. Now four years into his NHL career, Chychrun looks like he will be a horse for the Coyotes as an all-situations defender that can log huge minutes. He averaged more than 22 minutes a night in 2019-20, reaching a new career-high in goals with 12 and points with 26 despite playing in just 63 games. Unlike Keller, Chychrun’s long-term deal, this time signed in 2018, looks like a steal for the Coyotes moving forward. Not only does he carry just a $4.6MM cap hit through 2024-25, but the deal is also heavily back-loaded, meaning Chychrun will only actually earn $3.3MM in salary this season. With the financial environment so uncertain, value like that is hard to come by in the NHL.
What would the Coyotes be even more thankful for?
A seller’s market at the trade deadline.
The Coyotes made the postseason this year and have their sights set on it again, but it’s plain to see that this iteration of the team will have a hard time actually contending for a Stanley Cup. However, they may be able to build a new wing for their prospect cupboard if they decide to sell off some assets at the deadline. Derek Stepan, Alex Goligoski, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jason Demers, Jordan Oesterle, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Antti Raanta are all pending unrestricted free agents, and though many of them have big cap hits, the actual salary owed by deadline time will be relatively low. If Armstrong plays his cards right, he could potentially add a massive wave of draft picks and prospects to the organization, provided there is a market for this group of veterans (and he’s willing to sell).
What should be on the Coyotes’ holiday wish list?
Draft picks.
There are good prospects in the Arizona system, make no mistake. Hayton is already ready for primetime and Victor Soderstrom is among the handful of best defensive prospects in the league. But you can’t just punt on an entire draft class unless you’re already one of the elite teams in the league. Not only did Arizona come away from this draft without any sure-fire NHL prospects, but they don’t have their first or third for the 2021 draft either. There’s no way the organization will be able to climb the NHL ladder with that kind of gap in development, meaning they need to find a way to add picks this season. Whether that’s through selling off expiring deals or even potentially trading their captain, it’s imperative for Arizona to get back into the early rounds.
Last year’s Thankful series can be found here.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Edmonton Oilers
Current Cap Hit: $82,529,158 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Kailer Yamamoto (one year, $894K)
Potential Bonuses
Yamamoto: $230K
Yamamoto’s first two NHL stints didn’t go too well but that changed last year. Upon being recalled back in late December, he immediately stepped into a top-six role and was productive, hovering near a point per game along the way. If that continues into next season, he should have enough of a track record to command a sizable raise next year.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
D Tyson Barrie ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Alex Chiasson ($2.15MM, UFA)
F Tyler Ennis ($1MM, UFA)
F Gaetan Haas ($915K, UFA)
F Dominik Kahun ($975K, RFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($1.2MM, RFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4.167MM, UFA)
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6MM, UFA)
F Joakim Nygard ($875K, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($1.5MM, UFA)
Potential Bonuses
Smith: $500K
Nugent-Hopkins is the most notable player on this list by far and exploratory talks on an extension have taken place. The 27-year-old has spent most of his career down the middle but has seen a lot more time on the left wing in recent years and his production has taken off as a result. Either as a top-scoring winger or a capable pivot, he should be able to get a small raise on his current deal as well as a long-term pact. Chiasson’s second season didn’t go as well as his first and if he produces at a similar rate next season, he will be taking a cut in Edmonton or somewhere else. Khaira is a fourth liner most nights and that price tag would be hard to justify in this era so he looks like a non-tender candidate at this time while Nygard and Haas are role players who could be retained or replaced with similar-priced players a year from now.
Ennis and Kahun have the potential to be two of the better bargain signings this offseason (Kahun could wind up as the best bargain depending on what else happens). Ennis showed that he still has some production in him with Ottawa and certainly held his own after being moved to Edmonton at the deadline and it won’t take much to justify that price tag. Kahun was a surprising non-tender by Buffalo and figures to play in their middle six. There’s still some upside in his game and he should be counted on as a reliable secondary scorer for a team that has been lacking in that department at times.
Barrie spurned higher-priced offers to try to rebuild his value and he’ll certainly fit in as the anchor on the back end on the power play. The rest of his game isn’t the strongest but he has never been known as a staunch defender; point production is what will make or break his hopes of cashing in a year from now. Larsson is naturally best known for being the single asset coming to the Oilers from the Taylor Hall trade but while he hasn’t been able to reach the top pairing status that his draft selection would suggest, he is an effective top-four option. He’s not looking at a big raise a year from now but something around what he’s making now is certainly doable.
Smith didn’t have a great year last season but the team opted to bring him back. At 38, he’s going year-to-year at this point and will need to improve in his second go-round to have a shot at even a modest raise next offseason.
Two Years Remaining
F Josh Archibald ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Caleb Jones ($850K, RFA)
G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Darnell Nurse ($5.6MM, UFA)
F Jesse Puljujarvi ($1.175MM, RFA)
D Kris Russell ($4MM in 2020-21, $1.25MM in 2021-22, UFA)
F Kyle Turris ($1.65MM, UFA)
Turris was brought in to give the Oilers another proven option down the middle, a move that further cements Nugent-Hopkins’ short-term future on the wing. Yes, he struggled in Nashville under the weight of his old contract but with a clearly-defined role and a reasonable price tag, he should fare much better with the Oilers. Archibald has quietly put up a dozen goals over each of the last two seasons which earned him a bit of security but he’ll need to better those numbers if he wants a bigger contract two years from now. Puljujarvi is going to be one of the more interesting players to follow next season. He didn’t get his trade and while he played well in Finland, there are still plenty of question marks. There’s an opportunity for him and if he grabs it, he could be in line for a big raise down the road. If he doesn’t, he’s someone that could find himself without a qualifying offer as well.
Nurse opted to take a deal that brought him straight to UFA eligibility back in February. It’s something that’s riskier now than it was back then but as we saw this offseason, impact blueliners still got paid. Accordingly, even if the cap crunch remains in 2022, it shouldn’t hurt his fortunes too much. Russell had to take a significant pay cut but was able to leverage next year’s expansion into an early extension, one that’s more in line with the role he plays. Jones is now waiver-eligible so he’s a safe bet to be on the roster but will likely have a limited role next season.
Koskinen’s extension two years ago was baffling and appeared to be the final straw that pushed out former GM Peter Chiarelli. It’s not that he has been particularly bad by any stretch but he is still rather unproven at the age of 32 and hasn’t shown that he can handle a full number one workload. At this point, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to land a big raise on the open market but GM Ken Holland will certainly have to budget a higher amount for a more proven starter that offseason. If Koskinen is ultimately retained at a similar rate, then more money will need to be invested into the backup position and with Nurse being the only big-ticket expiring deal (and they’ll want to retain him), freeing up more goalie money could be tricky.
Three Years Remaining
D Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM, UFA)
F James Neal ($5.75MM, UFA)
Neal had a bit of a resurgence last season, jumping from seven goals the year before to 19 despite the pandemic cutting things short. That’s still not a great return on that price tag by any stretch but it’s still an improvement. Despite that, this is a contract that could be bought out by the time it’s set to expire.
Klefbom is set to miss potentially the entire season due to shoulder troubles which freed up the money to sign Barrie (as Klefbom will head to LTIR, allowing Edmonton to exceed the cap). He has turned into a legitimate top-pairing player and assuming he’s able to come back in 2021-22 and pick up where he left off, he’s looking at a significant raise on his next deal.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Anaheim Ducks
It’s Thanksgiving in the United States and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.
What are the Ducks most thankful for?
Extended training camp and European leagues.
This isn’t a contending year for the Ducks, who should be more focused on the development of their young prospects than anything else. Teams in that situation are probably incredibly frustrated with the status of junior leagues across North America, with young players like sixth-overall pick Jamie Drysdale unable to play in the OHL so far. Drysdale will get a chance to play at the World Juniors (after his quarantine) but many other youngsters are still waiting on their first competitive action since March.
The Ducks, as one of the teams that did not take part in the summer’s postseason bubble, are expected to receive an extra week of training camp when things finally get going. That will be quality development time for their young players, just like the time they’ve spent overseas in the interim. Lukas Dostal, who is now returning to North America, played 11 games for Ilves in Finland this fall, posting an incredible 10-1 record and .960 save percentage. While other prospects are just begging for ice time, he’s been refining his game against professionals.
Who are the Ducks most thankful for?
As we head into what will be a shortened season, Ducks fans can’t help but think about the fact that Getzlaf is in the final season of that massive eight-year, $66MM deal he signed in 2013. Now 35 and already missing Corey Perry, his partner in crime for more than a decade, the time for Getzlaf in Anaheim is winding down. But everyone that has cheered for the big centerman over the years is thankful for what he’s done for the franchise, constantly providing an anchor in the middle of the lineup and elevating his teammates on a nightly basis.
Though Getzlaf isn’t the 91-point superstar that once was or even the uber-confident youngster that helped the Ducks to a Stanley Cup championship, he’s still a strong leader and easy player to cheer for. While the organization grooms their next wave of leaders, give a thought to Getzlaf who will one day be the focus of a heated Hall of Fame argument (even if he might eventually miss the call).
What would the Ducks be even more thankful for?
A breakout performance.
While the team has a ton of young high draft picks in the system, they’re still waiting for a real breakout from someone. Like when Getzlaf jumped directly into the league with 39 points in 57 games as a rookie, the Ducks need someone to show they’ll be the next superstar in Anaheim. Troy Terry, Max Jones, Sam Steel, Isac Lundestrom, Trevor Zegras, Benoit-Olivier Groulx, Max Comtois, and on and on, someone needs to step up and become the next face of the franchise.
What should be on the Ducks’ holiday wish list?
Minor league and junior seasons.
If the opportunity isn’t there at the NHL level right away, the Ducks are going to have to hope that the AHL and Canadian junior leagues are able to hold seasons. Remember it’s not just Drysdale that the Ducks drafted in the first round this year, but Jacob Perreault, who is currently waiting on his OHL season to begin. The 27th-overall pick has already signed after scoring 39 goals and 70 points in 57 games last year, but wasn’t invited to Canada’s WJC camp and is too young for the AHL.
If it’s a development year, there need to be development leagues playing.
Last year’s Thankful series can be found here.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Calgary Flames
Current Cap Hit: $80,489,166 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Dillon Dube (one year, $778K)
D Juuso Valimaki (one year, $894K)
Potential Bonuses
Dube: $32.5K
Valimaki: $425K
Total: $457.5K
After being recalled in mid-November, Dube was up to stay with Calgary, playing in 45 regular season games as well as all ten playoff games. While he’s projected to be a full-time regular next year, it’s unlikely that he’ll command a significant raise on his next deal unless he’s able to grab a top-six role which isn’t likely at this stage of his career. Valimaki missed all of last season while recovering from knee surgery. As things stand, he should slot in on the third pairing but with how much development time he has lost, a bridge contract next offseason is quite likely for him.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Sam Bennett ($2.55MM, RFA)
F Josh Leivo ($875K, UFA)
D Nikita Nesterov ($700K, UFA)
F Joakim Nordstrom ($700K, UFA)
G David Rittich ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Derek Ryan ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Dominik Simon ($700K, UFA)
It wasn’t a good regular season at all for Bennett who looked like he was heading straight towards non-tender territory for the 2021 offseason. Then the playoffs came where he was much better. A full-season showing like that would have him well-positioned for a raise next offseason but if not, Calgary could still view his $2.55MM qualifier as too rich for them. Ryan’s point per game average was comparable to that of his previous two seasons which is a positive. However, with the state of the market now, his deal has gone from decent value to a slight overpayment and considering he’ll be 34 when his next contract begins, it’s difficult to see him getting a raise next year. Leivo was well on his way to a career year before a fractured kneecap derailed things and resulted in him needing to take a show-me deal. This has the potential to be one of the better bargains from free agency and if he stays healthy and produces around a 30-35-point level, he’ll be in good shape for a nice raise next year. Simon and Nordstrom are likely to be fourth line or depth players and barring a surprise offensive uptick, both will be looking at similar amounts a year from now.
Nesterov’s return to the NHL came as a bit of a surprise but it’s a no-risk move for the Flames. Offensively, he can contribute but he will need to show some defensive improvement to have an opportunity to land a more prominent contract next summer. Rittich’s chance of getting a better deal next offseason is certainly in jeopardy after the year he had and the fact he is now cemented as a backup goaltender. Calgary may be able to look to sign him (or someone else) for a bit cheaper next year to free up a bit more wiggle room.
Two Years Remaining
F Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Mark Giordano ($6.75MM, UFA)
F Andrew Mangiapane ($2.425MM, RFA)
F Matthew Tkachuk ($7MM, RFA)
Gaudreau’s value certainly took a dip last season but while he didn’t come close to the 99-point mark again, he still was in the top 50 in scoring league-wide. His playoff performances have underwhelmed but at 27, there’s little reason to think he isn’t going to be an impact player for several years to come. Unless his output drops again, he’s still looking at a pricey deal on his next contract and whether or not it’s a small raise or cut will depend on his ability to approach his 2018-19 levels. Mangiapane’s first full NHL season was a strong one as he carved out a top-six role. Assuming he can hold onto that, he’ll be in line for a raise with arbitration rights two years from now.
Tkachuk is going to be one of the more intriguing RFA cases of the 2022 cohort. He’s still subject to the old rules for qualifying offers which means Calgary must tender a $9MM qualifying offer. Under the old cap environment (one that had frequent increases), that was still significant but now, it’s even more important. The Flames can take him to arbitration which could potentially lower the cost but the minimum award would be $7.65MM and chances are that Tkachuk will perform well enough to do better than that. He also has the option to just file for arbitration himself or accept the qualifying offer; either route would walk him to UFA eligibility at 25 in the prime of his career. Accordingly, GM Brad Treliving will almost certainly be wanting to start extension talks as soon as possible (the first official day of the 2021-22 campaign).
Giordano saw his point production decline sharply last season but the 2019 Norris Trophy winner is still a fixture on the top pairing for the Flames. His price tag is more than reasonable but he will be hard-pressed to command a similar deal two years from now when he’ll be entering his age-39 season. He’ll be eligible for bonuses in one-year deals at that time and that will probably be the route that teams will want to go with him.
Three Years Remaining
F Milan Lucic ($5.25MM, UFA)*
F Sean Monahan ($6.375MM, UFA)
*- Edmonton is retaining another $750K on Lucic’s deal
Like Gaudreau, Monahan is coming off of a big drop offensively which had some wondering if he’d be moved if Treliving opted to shake up his roster. That didn’t happen and instead, he’ll have an opportunity to try to re-establish himself as a fixture on the top line. Still just 26, Monahan could be an intriguing free agent three years from now with impact centers not often making it to the open market. Lucic, meanwhile, is viewed as having one of the worst contracts in the league. Unfortunately for Calgary, the structure of the deal (frontloading with signing bonuses) makes it effectively buyout-proof so this is one they’re probably not going to be able to get out of unless they can find another bad contract for bad contract swap.