Offseason Keys: Columbus Blue Jackets

As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the official first round.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

Last season, the Blue Jackets surprised many, stifling a high-powered attack before being ousted in the playoffs.  This year, it was more of the same as they eliminated Toronto before Tampa Bay exacted some revenge for 2019 to end their year.  What’s particularly impressive is that Columbus was able to do so despite losing several of their top players in free agency without much in the way of replacements coming in, with all due respect to Gustav Nyquist.  Now, GM Jarmo Kekalainen will be tasked with trying to find some of those replacements to give their attack a much-needed boost for next season.

Add Impact Center

One thing that Matt Duchene brought to the table a year ago was the ability to have a strong one-two punch with Pierre-Luc Dubois.  But when Duchene signed in Nashville, they weren’t able to fill that spot externally and instead had to promote from within.  Their top options were Boone Jenner who in four years hasn’t surpassed 18 goals after scoring 30 in 2015-16 and Alexander Wennberg who had all of two goals in 75 games in 2018-19.  To their credit, they made it work even though the two only combined for 16 goals in 127 contests this season.

But just because they got away with a weak group down the middle this season doesn’t mean it’s a recipe for success down the road.  Look at the teams that were ahead of them in the Metropolitan Division and there is one commonality – a strong group of centers.  To take a step forward in the regular season standings and not rely on pushing for a Wild Card spot, this is an area that has to be improved.

Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets (and any other team looking for help down the middle), the unrestricted free agent market isn’t going to solve the problem as there isn’t much help available there.  This is something that will need to be addressed by a trade and after making several trade splashes to bolster last year’s run, the prospect and draft pick cupboards aren’t quite as stocked as they once were.  But if they want to take that next step forward, this is something that Kekalainen will need to find a way to address.

Sign Dubois

Nearly a third of their roster is slated to be a restricted free agent this offseason but among those, Dubois is in a class of his own.  While his point total dipped this season (49 points in 71 games) thanks to the pandemic, he played close to his point-per-game pace from 2018-19 that saw him collect 61 points.  More importantly, he is unquestionably the top center the Blue Jackets have, a role that certainly boosts his leverage heading into contract talks.

Before the pandemic, many teams have been trying to lock up their top young stars to deals that may be a little pricey at the beginning but have the potential to be bargains by the end as they continue to improve and the salary cap goes up.  That last part isn’t going to be in play for a few years at least until fans are able to be back in arenas and the new television deal in the United States is completed.

In the meantime, the internal discussion for both sides will be weighing the pros and cons of a bridge deal versus a long-term contract.  For Dubois, waiting a couple of years to get a long-term deal certainly makes some sense as he’ll have arbitration eligibility and likely a preferable financial landscape.  On the other hand, if his offense doesn’t progress beyond that 60-point level, the earnings upside may not be as high then as it is now.  From Kekalainen’s perspective, working towards a long-term contract is almost certainly the preferred option unless the asking price is exceptionally high.  They’ll need to find some common ground over the next few months.

An offer sheet is a possibility but Columbus should have enough cap space to dissuade one from being made.  They’ll need to dip into LTIR this time around but with Brandon Dubinsky’s career likely over, they’ll have up to his $5.85MM AAV at their disposal to give them some extra wiggle room which should be enough to make teams look elsewhere.

Add Power Play Help

Production with the man advantage has been an issue for the last couple of years to the point where it has cost two assistant coaches their jobs in recent months.  Their two top goal-getters on the power play were a defenseman (Zach Werenski) and a rookie forward that had half of his goal total come in this situation in Emil Bemstrom.  Each had five goals.  That’s not a bad total but it certainly shouldn’t be leading the team either.

If you’re thinking that the departures of Duchene and Artemi Panarin had a lot to do with that, the thought would certainly make some sense.  But technically speaking, the Blue Jackets had a better power play this season (16.4%) vs the year prior (15.4%).  It was only a little over 17% in 2017-18 as well; it’s not as if this is a short-term problem.  Instead, it’s clearly a lingering issue.

Obviously, shoring up the center position should help things in theory.  But they were in better shape down the middle a year ago and it didn’t make a dent in that department.  Different schemes have been tried and the results have been the same.  Accordingly, Kekalainen may be looking to add a power play specialist or two.  These players may not quite fit the type of style that John Tortorella wants to see but even some incremental upgrades with the man advantage should be enough to get them out of the basement offensively which is where they basically were this season with only one Eastern team (Detroit) scoring fewer goals than they did.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.