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Trade Candidate Profiles 2022

Trade Candidate: Andrew Copp

at CDT | by 2 Comments

The trade deadline is now just over a week away as we continue our look at some of the players who have a good chance of being on the move between now and March 21st.

Andrew Copp has fairly quietly but steadily improved over the past several seasons and has worked his way up from being an energy player on the fourth line to a reliable checker to a quality two-way center that plays big minutes in all facets of the game.  As a result, if Winnipeg decides that they’re going to sell, Copp will be one of the most sought-after players around the league in the days to come.

Contract

Copp is on a one-year, $3.64MM contract that was agreed on prior to his arbitration hearing in August and thus contains no form of trade protection.  The deal is all salary and he will be an unrestricted free agent after the season.

2021-22

Copp has been somewhat of a Swiss army knife for Winnipeg this season.  Injuries to Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers opened up spots on the wing that Copp filled at times.  He has spent most of the year playing down the middle but even with a fully healthy lineup (including Mark Scheifele and Pierre-Luc Dubois at center), Copp has logged heavy minutes and is third among all Winnipeg forwards in ice time behind only Kyle Connor and Scheifele.

Unsurprisingly, the 27-year-old has seen plenty of action on special teams.  He leads all Jets forwards in shorthanded ice time per game and plays almost the same amount of time on the power play, making him their only player to average at least 2:30 per contest in both situations.

The end result is that Copp is on pace to set career highs across the board (he’s already there in shots on goals).  On top of that, he’s winning over 53% of his draws and we know how much teams value situational faceoff performance in the playoffs.

However, it’s worth noting that his production has tapered off a little bit as of late with five points in his last 16 games while half of his full-season point total came in the first 15 games of the year.  That shouldn’t hurt his market too much but interested teams will be factoring that into their offers.

Season Stats

53 GP, 13 goals, 19 assists, 32 points, even rating, 8 PIMS, 147 shots, 20:05 TOI, 52.9 CF%, 53.8% faceoffs

Potential Suitors

Basically, any contending team with some cap space will have interest in Copp if he’s made available.  Winnipeg could retain to facilitate a deal although they’re close to being capped out so there may be a limitation to how much they can hold back or who they can take on to offset part of the contract.

In the East, the Bruins never really filled the hole created by David Krejci’s departure and have been looking to fill a top-six hole all season.  Copp fits the bill on both ends and they have the cap space to afford him outright.  So do the Rangers who could either slot him in on the wing in the top six or have him anchor a new-look third line that can take some pressure off the top lines.  The Maple Leafs have been linked to some wingers and Copp would be a good complementary piece on the wing on their second line although making the money work would be a challenge with Jake Muzzin set to return later this season.  The Capitals have been looking around at checking wingers and while Copp is rated a little higher, he’s someone they’d have interest in although again, the cap looms large on that front.  The Panthers may covet Copp’s faceoff prowess to help offset Sam Bennett’s struggles on the draw if they aren’t able to add a significant piece on the back end.

Out West, the Wild stand out as a strong fit.  They’re stuck shopping for expiring contracts with the buyout charges increasing next season for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter and could certainly use some improvements down the middle.  The Avalanche have good depth at center already but could use Copp on the wing or in a shutdown capacity.  It’d also be an opportunity to evaluate if he could be a serviceable replacement for Nazem Kadri if Kadri prices himself out of what Colorado can afford over the offseason.  The Flames would have some cap challenges to overcome and would need to use him on the wing but he certainly fits Calgary’s playing style.  If the Predators opt to try to make a bigger addition, Copp is someone that would fit in a role that’s similar to one he plays with Winnipeg, splitting time at center and the wing.

Likelihood Of A Trade

A lot will depend on how Winnipeg fares in this next week.  If they can close the gap on a Wild Card spot, they may hold onto Copp in the hopes of sneaking into the postseason.  However, if that doesn’t happen and a contract extension isn’t in the cards, there’s a very good chance that Copp will be on a different roster once the clock passes 2 PM CT on March 21st.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Braden Holtby

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With the trade deadline now a few weeks away, we continue our look at some of the players who have a good chance of being on the move between now and March 21st.

Braden Holtby’s first season away from the Washington Capitals, the only team he had ever known, the team he backstopped to a Stanley Cup in 2018, did not go well. Holtby signed a two-year contract worth $4.3MM per year with the Vancouver Canucks, and the team was optimistic that he would replace Jacob Markstrom’s starts and help ease Thatcher Demko into his role as a starting goaltender. Holtby’s play was far poorer than those expectations demanded, and he was eventually bought out by the team after only one season, a season where he posted a .889 save percentage and an eye-popping 3.67 goals against average in 21 games. But this season, Holtby has been impressive for the Dallas Stars, and he owns a .913 save percentage in 24 games as the Stars battle for position in the Western Conference’s playoff race.

Contract

Holtby is in the lone season of his one-year $2MM contract with the Stars. His entire contract is in base salary, no signing bonus, and he will be an unrestricted free agent in July. He has no protection against trades in his contract.

2021-22

Holtby began the season brilliantly, with save percentages between .926 and .964 in his first four starts, with the Stars winning three out of those four. Holtby’s numbers came down to earth a bit after that, but overall he has remained steadily above .910 as a whole for his season’s numbers. Holtby faced a minor lower-body injury in early February and largely has ceded the starting role to Jake Oettinger, but despite those two factors he has still provided the Stars with excellent value for the contract they signed. Holtby’s season represents his first venture above the .900 mark in save percentage since 2018-19, and the Stars have to be satisfied with the performance he has given them so far this season.

Looking a bit deeper into his numbers, Holtby has a .922 even-strength save percentage, higher than many goalies considered to be quality starters such as John Gibson, Robin Lehner, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Connor Hellebuyck. But his save percentage on the penalty kill of .827 is one of the lower marks in the league and brings down his save percentage as a whole. The Stars do not have a great penalty kill, ranked 19th in the NHL at 78.9%, so one has to wonder if Holtby’s numbers could be even better on a team that is stronger in that area.

Season Stats

22 games started, 10-10-1 record, .913 save percentage, 2.78 goals against average, 3.0 goals saved above expected.

Potential Suitors

Goaltending is an interesting situation when it comes to the trade deadline, because it can be far easier to determine a team’s need in that position compared to others. That being said, so much of successful goaltending is mental, so much relies on a goalie’s confidence and belief in himself. So acquiring a goalie at the deadline can be tricky. High-profile goaltending trades at deadlines have sometimes borne fruit, like when the Vegas Golden Knights acquired their current starting goalie in Lehner, but it has also backfired in the past, like when the Los Angeles Kings traded Erik Cernak, among other assets, to acquire Ben Bishop from the Tampa Bay Lightning. It’s a mixed bag, so historically speaking acquiring Holtby has some risk. But looking across the league, there are definitely teams in need of goaltending.

The team getting the most attention surrounding its goaltending right now is the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs are a star-studded team and are in a market that desperately wants to see them make their first playoff run with this core of players. It was believed that Jack Campbell would be the guy to get them there, and Campbell is truly a beloved player in Toronto, but his play recently has not been inspiring. Nor has the play all season of backup Petr Mrazek, who has an .890 save percentage. For a team that so badly needs to make noise in the playoffs, adding a Stanley Cup-winning goalie could be the move they need to shore up the side of the game that has decided many a playoff series on its own.

Another potential suitor for Holtby is one that would excite many fans of the team and neutral observers alike- the Washington Capitals. Vitek Vanecek has been brilliant this season, to the tune of a .921 save percentage, but the team has also started Ilya Samsonov in 28 games and gotten a .901 save percentage from him. For a team that expects to make the playoffs, that won’t cut it. The Capitals should be comfortable with Vanecek starting in the playoffs, but uncomfortable at the prospect of Samsonov playing should Vanecek be unavailable, as he was in the team’s playoff loss to the Bruins last season. So what better player to cure the Capitals’ discomfort than Holtby, the goalie who in 2018 cured their longstanding discomfort over having never won a Stanley Cup?

One clear potential suitor for Holtby is the Edmonton Oilers. Much has been made about the struggles of their goaltending, and for good reason. They have a team with high-quality players but no goalie to give them the saves they need to win. They don’t have much room to work with under the cap, but with retention they could definitely fit Holtby in. He would be a major upgrade over both of the incumbent goalies in Edmonton and would also provide them with much-needed playoff experience. It’s a match that makes a lot of sense, and the acquisition cost should definitely fit GM Ken Holland’s desire to retain his team’s first round pick.

A final potential suitor for Holtby may come as a surprise: the New York Rangers. It may surprise a few readers because the Rangers are currently backstopped by a Hart Trophy candidate in Igor Shesterkin. But the move could make sense. The team’s backup, Alexandar Georgiev, owns a .897 save percentage this season. He is simply not a viable insurance policy to a Shesterkin injury come the playoffs. The Rangers have had too strong of a season to lose it all if Shesterkin goes down. Adding Holtby at a price that would not be unreasonable (goalies rarely get traded for significant assets, especially at the deadline) could be a smart bit of business for GM Chris Drury.

Likelihood of a Trade

The Stars are still in the mix for a playoff spot, so potentially subtracting a goalie like Holtby would in theory hurt their odds of making it. But the team seems set on Oettinger as their number-one goaltender, and they have Anton Khudobin waiting in the wings to take Holtby’s role as a backup in case of a trade. Khudobin hasn’t been great this season, but he’s an experienced player who the Stars would trust as a backup, given their prior commitments to him. Holtby isn’t an overwhelmingly likely candidate to be traded, like the Montreal Canadiens’ Ben Chiarot is, but it’s not difficult to see why he could be on the move

Trade Candidate: Max Domi

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With the trade deadline now less than a month away, we continue our look at some of the players who have a good chance of being on the move between now and March 21st.

Last season wasn’t a great one for Max Domi.  He struggled to fit in with the Blue Jackets in his first year with the team and certainly didn’t live up to his contract.  Then he suffered a long-term injury and the combination of that was enough to cause Seattle to pass on him for free in expansion (where they instead picked someone that went back to Columbus days later as a free agent).  However, this season has gone a bit better for him which may be enough to help him land a new home with a playoff-bound team in the near future.

Contract

Domi is in the final season of a contract that carries a $5.3MM AAV.  He has a $6MM salary and will be an unrestricted free agent in July.  As his deal only covered RFA-eligible years, he wasn’t eligible for any type of trade protection.

2021-22

Domi went through a bit of a roller coaster in the early going this season.  He came back from shoulder surgery much earlier than expected and was in the lineup on opening night, collecting three points.  Then he had a fractured rib and soon after returning from that, he landed in COVID protocol, missing another three weeks.

Since then, Domi has managed to stay in the lineup, albeit not quite in the role GM Jarmo Kekalainen envisioned when he acquired the 27-year-old from Montreal in 2020.  He has played exclusively on the wing this season instead of filling a spot down the middle as originally planned.  Domi has also spent time on all four lines without really being able to settle into one spot.

Domi has also been very unproductive on the power play.  He has played over 56 minutes on the man advantage this season and has one assist to show for it.  That’s the negative slant.  The positive slant is that all but one of his points have come at five-on-five and the role that contending teams will want him to fill is one that even strength production is more important than producing on the power play.

Season Stats

44 GP, 9 goals, 16 assists, 25 points, -1 rating, 30 PIMS, 65 shots, 13:24 TOI, 47.4 CF%

Potential Suitors

While Domi can play in the top six if needed (he has at times throughout his career), that’s not the role teams should be eyeing him to play.  With that in mind, his suitors should be those that want him for more of a depth spot in their lineup.  That said, Domi’s price tag for that role will limit the number of teams who could realistically fit him in without having to move a roster player the other way.

In the East, I had the Bruins pegged as a possible suitor for Domi at the beginning of the season where his positional flexibility can be useful.  He won’t be their top target but he would add some scoring to their bottom six.  The same can basically be said for the Panthers if some of their stronger targets go elsewhere.  The Rangers have the cap room to add a few pieces and they’re a team that would benefit from adding some offensive skill to their bottom six while still trying to fill other areas.  The Maple Leafs have come up as a speculative fit as of late but depth scoring isn’t their top need; they’d need to strike out on filling those and have Jake Muzzin stay on LTIR for the rest of the season for that to really be an option.

Out West, the Kings may be more inclined to do a smaller deal or two that doesn’t involve giving up any longer-term assets and play it safe.  That’s more of the range that Domi should fit in as he won’t command a significant price in return.  The Predators also have ample cap space and could stand to upgrade their bottom six.  They’re another team where it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll make a big splash so some smaller, safer moves like this may be more in their wheelhouse.

Likelihood Of A Trade

At this point, it doesn’t seem like Domi is a strong candidate to return to the Blue Jackets.  While Columbus has been on a bit of a nice run as of late, they’re still longshots to reach the playoffs.  As long as they’re willing to retain on the contract, there’s a very good chance that Domi is in another uniform after the deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Phil Kessel

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With the trade deadline now less than a month away, we continue our look at some of the players who have a good chance of being on the move between now and March 21st.

Over the summer, the Coyotes moved out several veterans and really dove into their long-term rebuilding project.  However, one veteran that wasn’t moved out at that time was winger Phil Kessel.  With playoff-bound teams looking to add some scoring depth between now and the trade deadline, it stands to reason that there’s a good chance that Kessel will be on the move in the coming weeks.

Contract

Kessel is in the final season of his deal that carries a $8MM cap hit.  $5MM of his money owing for this season was paid out in a signing bonus while his base salary is only $1MM.  Toronto is retaining 15% of that amount so Arizona’s cap hit is $6.8MM.  The contract also contains an eight-team no-trade clause.

2021-22

It has been a tough year for many Coyotes as Arizona sits in the basement of the Western Conference.  It wouldn’t necessarily be fair to lump Kessel in with that majority, however.  His goal total is down but his assist numbers are the best they’ve been in the desert.  As a result, he sits second on the team in scoring behind Clayton Keller.

Despite several of their top players moving, it hasn’t really resulted in an increase in ice time for the 34-year-old which is in contrast to their other higher-scoring forwards.  Keller is averaging more than three minutes a game more, so is Lawson Crouse, and Travis Boyd (who wasn’t with Arizona last year) is logging over four minutes a night higher as he has gotten the type of opportunity that eluded him in the past.  Kessel, meanwhile, is averaging 13 seconds per game more than last year.

Unsurprisingly, his utilization is the same as usual – lots of power play time and the rest at five on five.  Wherever he winds up going, that should stay intact as he’s never going to be the type of player that kills penalties and plays in key defensive situations but in offensive areas, he can still contribute.

Season Stats

51 GP, 6 goals, 27 assists, 33 points, -11 rating, 18 PIMS, 109 shots, 17:18 TOI, 48.0 CF%

Potential Suitors

Most contenders don’t have the ability to take on $6.8MM in a trade but Arizona has one retention slot left (Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Darcy Kuemper are the two they’ve used) and with his salary being as low as it is, it’s likely that the Coyotes will be open to using that last slot to retain half of the cap hit to help facilitate a move.  Worth noting, Toronto’s retention means that Kessel isn’t eligible for the double-retention move we’ve seen some teams make the last couple of seasons but there should still be some interest.

In the East, the Rangers have the cap space to go after Kessel.  While shoring up their bottom six is a priority, adding Kessel would allow them to push someone else down into that lower group which would still serve as an upgrade and he’d be an interesting shooter with Artemi Panarin on the opposite wing.  The Panthers seem to be thinking big but Kessel would work as a fallback option, bolstering what is an already very strong offensive squad.  If the Bruins strike out on some of their targets, a reunion with Kessel would make sense in terms of shoring up their production on the wing but would both sides be open to that?

There are more fits out West.  Like the Rangers, the Predators have ample cap space and someone like Kessel would bolster what has been a middle-of-the-pack attack.  The Wild are basically stuck looking at rentals with their buyout penalties looming large for next season and while they’re already one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, they could double down on their strengths and deepen their attack.  The Pacific Division also has some reasonable options.  If Anaheim looks to add, they have ample cap space and could certainly use some extra offensive depth.  The Sharks are currently out but if they can win a few games to get back into the race, they’d be a good fit as well.  The Kings currently have the space right now with their LTIR situation and would benefit from more firepower but their ability to add largely hinges on Alexander Edler’s situation.

Likelihood Of A Trade

There probably isn’t going to be a significant market for Kessel with the contract and as he is someone that’s going to be more of a secondary option than a primary target, it may take a while for it to materialize.  But assuming the acquisition cost winds up in the mid-round pick range, the veteran should be on the move at some point before the deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Ben Chiarot

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With the trade deadline just over a month away, it’s time to look at some of the players who have a good chance of being on the move between now and March 21st.

A few years ago, Ben Chiarot was playing a limited role on Winnipeg’s back end and the three-year, $10.5MM contract he signed with Montreal back in 2019 raised some eyebrows for being what appeared to be a pretty generous payment.  However, the 30-year-old has become a fixture in the top four for the Canadiens and after a strong showing in the playoffs last year, Montreal has set a high price tag for the pending UFA with several teams already expressing interest.

Contract

Chiarot is in the final season of his deal that carries a $3.5MM AAV.  The contract also contains a 10-team no-trade clause.

2021-22

As has been the case for pretty much everyone in Montreal this season, things have not gone well for Chiarot.  His primary partner from last season was Shea Weber who hasn’t played at all this year and likely won’t again.  Former GM Marc Bergevin tried to recreate a similar pairing by adding David Savard but that duo didn’t work well when they were together while Jeff Petry – who has been moved into the number one role – has also struggled.

The end result is that Chiarot has struggled considerably.  He has been asked to play a bigger role than he should be, including taking a regular turn on the power play for extended stretches.  His offensive numbers are close to his recent output but he hasn’t fared well being the focal part of their defensive plan and the advanced stats aren’t any better when it comes to scoring chances and shots allowed.

That makes his case a particularly interesting one.  How much stock will teams be willing to put into his performance over his first two seasons with Montreal and their playoff runs (spanning 32 games) compared to his level of play this season?  The player he was during the first two years is worth a lot more than the player he has been in 2021-22.

Season Stats

44 GP, 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points, -27 rating, 36 PIMS, 82 shots, 23:17 TOI, 45.8 CF%

Potential Suitors

No playoff-bound team will be looking at Chiarot to play the role he has been with Montreal.  As a fourth option that can kill penalties though, he’d represent an upgrade for several teams while deepening their depth.

In the East, the Panthers, Hurricanes, Rangers, Maple Leafs, and Bruins have all been linked to Chiarot already.  Carolina’s top four on the back end is set and someone like Chiarot would really improve their depth and take off some pressure from that top group.  Even with 50% retention though, making the money work would be tight.  The left side of Florida’s back end is their weaker side and for now, they have close to enough cap room to bring him in through LTIR although it should be noted that Markus Nutivaara hasn’t been ruled out for the season yet.

The Rangers have more than enough cap space and Jeff Gorton and former European scouting director Nick Bobrov now with Montreal, they’re going to be speculatively linked to the Canadiens on multiple trade fronts.  Toronto has made it known they’d like to add to their back end although GM Kyle Dubas’ stated preference is to add someone signed beyond this season.  If they were to send one of Travis Dermott or Justin Holl back to Montreal in a deal that also featured 50% retention on Chiarot, the move could be close to cap-neutral as well.  Boston and Montreal don’t trade with each other very often and they’re more of a curious fit as Matt Grzelcyk, Derek Forbort, and Mike Reilly already comprise their left side.  While Chiarot can play on the right, only the third pairing needs to be shored up there so he may not be the best target for them.

Out West, the Blues, Kings, and Flames have been identified as known suitors.  St. Louis has a definite need to upgrade the left side of their back end and Chiarot fits the style that head coach Craig Berube would like but they’re basically in a spot where they have to match money which would make things more challenging as they ideally wouldn’t want to subtract from their roster.  Los Angeles continues to hang around the playoff mix and certainly have a hole to try to fill on the left side of their back end.  While it’s possible that Alexander Edler could return this year which would complicate things from a cap perspective, the Kings could ask to include Olli Maatta’s expiring contract which is almost the same price tag as Chiarot’s to offset that risk.

Calgary was involved in talks for Chiarot as part of the Tyler Toffoli trade earlier this week.  While such a move would be harder now from a cap perspective, they also have a salary offset in Nikita Zadorov’s expiring deal that could help on that front.  While Nashville hasn’t been directly linked to Chiarot, they’re a team that he would fit on but the question is how much they will be willing to spend on a rental player in a season that had been deemed as a bit of a reset coming into the year.

Likelihood Of A Trade

GM Kent Hughes met with the media earlier this week and all but guaranteed that Chiarot will be on the move as soon as someone is willing to meet the asking price.  Reports have suggested that the Canadiens are looking at what Columbus got for Savard last season (a first-round pick along with a third-rounder) as the benchmark for a move and they are willing to retain the maximum 50% for it to happen.  Barring another injury, it’d be very surprising to see the veteran in a Montreal uniform after the deadline.

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