PHR Mailbag

Training camps are drawing ever closer, but that doesn’t mean the news cycle is slowing down. An unexpected head coaching change late in the summer dominated storylines over the weekend, while the Colorado Avalanche moved to pick up one of the few impact free agents left on the market a few days before.

With those moves in the rearview mirror, it’s time for another edition of our mailbag. Our last one ran in two parts. Edition one looked at how teams view the goaltending position in the wake of Vegas’ tandem approach that led to a championship, candidates for a breakout season in 2023-24 and the value of Pierre-Luc Dubois’ long-term extension in Los Angeles. Edition two covered some recent high-value trades, puzzling summer moves and the rebound potential for the Stars’ former elite duo of Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a look at some value trades from last season, when the salary cap might start to go up quicker, the 2024 draft class, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

DevilShark: Wondering about your perspective on the top few value trades from the past season now with some hindsight. I’m talking about outperforming their cost – irrespective of their teams’ place in the standings (so not the traditional thing where we look at who helped their team win the cup). Which team made out with great value in the margins?

For a full listing of the trades from the 2022-23 league year, click here.  This is the list I’m working off of for this question but I’ll cut it off at any moves made this offseason.

One that came to mind quickly was Montreal acquiring Sean Monahan and the world’s most confusingly-protected first-round pick from Calgary for free.  Monahan showed for a couple of months that he’s still an above-average player and while they weren’t able to flip him as planned at the deadline, things went well enough that he signed for a much more reasonable $2MM.  They should get more value out of him next season and could flip him for another asset or two in-season.  No matter what, they still eventually get the first-round pick as well.  That’s a very good return on a cost of nothing.

Similarly, Carolina using their cap space to pick up Brent Burns with some retention (and Lane Pederson) for Steven Lorentz, Eetu Makiniemi, and a third-round pick is fantastic value.  Burns is still a top-pairing defender and the Hurricanes got him for a depth forward, an okay goalie prospect at a position they had some surplus, and a mid-round pick.  The Hurricanes made out extremely well here.  I’d also like to put Adin Hill for a 2024 fourth-rounder here but by following the rules of your question, I can’t really do that.

In terms of an in-season move, Dallas buying low on Evgenii Dadonov worked out quite well.  They expected he’d bounce back under a familiar head coach in Peter DeBoer and guessed correctly as he became a key secondary contributor both down the stretch and in the playoffs.  The Stars then leveraged his struggles with Montreal into getting Dadonov to take a pretty cheap two-year deal ($2.25MM AAV) that’s $650K lower than what it would have taken to qualify the underperforming forward they traded for him in the first place (Denis Gurianov, who eventually went non-tendered anyway).  They got the short-term upgrade and at least a medium-term one for very little return.

St. Louis getting Jakub Vrana is another under-the-radar one I think warrants a mention.  They picked up him with Detroit retaining 50% of his $5.25MM AAV for last season and next for a seventh-round pick and a minor leaguer.  Vrana scored 10 goals in 20 games down the stretch.  If he even comes close to that type of production next season, the Blues should be able to flip him for much more than that if they find themselves out of the playoff picture.  And if they are in the mix, he should be an important contributor that was acquired for very little.

aka.nda: Which team(s) summer moves have you scratching your head? What do you think those moves suggest about what that team is hoping or expecting to happen? Is there anything they could do on the market that would inspire more confidence?

A couple of Eastern Conference teams come to mind.  Detroit had money to spend and spent it patching a lot of depth holes with the exception of J.T. Compher whose five-year, $25.5MM contract seems overly optimistic that he can produce at the level he did with Colorado last year when injuries pushed him onto the top line.  They went from being a non-playoff team to a better non-playoff team.  To GM Steve Yzerman’s credit, he did well on the Alex DeBrincat and Jeff Petry acquisitions from a value perspective but I still don’t think those move the needle to make them a playoff team.  They’ve spent a lot of money to possibly finish sixth in the division even though their actions think they’re a playoff-caliber squad.  To be fair, I don’t think there’s much they can do either other than bide their time for the top teams to start to lose some of their top talent.

I also wasn’t a big fan of the Islanders’ moves.  Seven years for Pierre Engvall and Scott Mayfield is nothing short of nonsensical, even if it does keep the cap hits at a reasonable amount (and that is an important consideration).  Four years for a 35-year-old backup goalie also falls in that category even if that backup is a pretty good one.  They took a core that squeaked into a playoff spot and didn’t do anything to improve the roster.  They have no cap flexibility to speak of to try to improve.  Sure, they’ll be in the Wild Card mix again but was locking up secondary players to long-term deals really the best course of direction?  Why not concentrate some of Mayfield and Engvall’s money to go after an offensive upgrade that actually addresses a big area of weakness?  GM Lou Lamoriello clearly feels this core is good enough to get in and the team plays a style that can do some damage in the playoffs.  I’m not sure they get there at this point.

jacl: is Benn good for a point per game this year? Ever think we’ll get Seguin back to his old self? it’s been years since he’s been any good and when centering his own line, it never produces.

Generally, players in their 30s don’t have resurgent seasons.  Jamie Benn bucked that trend, going from 46 points in 2021-22 to 78 points last year.  Fewer players in this situation go on to then improve upon those numbers the following year.  I don’t think Benn will be an exception to that idea either.  His 17.2 shooting percentage was among the tops in the league last season and is at a rate that many would qualify as unsustainable.  That means his 33-goal total is probably going down and with Wyatt Johnston set to push for more minutes as well as newcomer Matt Duchene, I expect Benn’s 45 assists to also go down.  I could see him in the 50-point range which would still be an improvement over his post-pandemic numbers.  That wouldn’t be a great return on his contract but he’d still be an important part of their attack.

As for Tyler Seguin, I don’t see him getting back to the days of him hovering around the point-per-game mark.  He was a top-line fixture at that point in his career.  He isn’t now and the Stars are probably hoping they’re not in a situation where he’s pressed into that duty.  Seguin is a secondary part of their attack now and those players typically don’t light up the scoresheet.  If he continues to produce around the 50-point mark in a middle-six role within the framework of a deep attack, they should be fine.

Unclemike1526: I know the Cap only went up about $1 million this year. I also keep hearing the Cap is going to rise quite a bit in the near future according to the owners. About how much are they saying it’s supposed to go up and when? I think it’s time Hockey joined the ranks of other Pro sports. I just want to know what they’re saying, so I’ll know just how much I’ll be disappointed when it doesn’t happen. Thanks!

The drag in the growth of the Upper Limit of the salary cap in recent years is tied to the pandemic.  That shortened season, the players received their full salaries but with games being canceled and restrictions on attendance, revenues plummeted.  In the CBA is a rule that says players and owners have a 50/50 split of Hockey Related Revenue (HRR) and that season, it wasn’t even close.  That created a ‘debt’ to be repaid to the owners, a clawback of sorts to eventually get the split from that season back to 50/50.

In the 2020 CBA extension, it was agreed that the cap would only go up by $1MM until that debt was repaid.  As of today, that debt is not entirely repaid which is why the cap only moved from $82.5MM to $83.5MM for 2023-24.  However, they’re really close to paying that off which should come this coming season.  At that point, there is a minimum increase to the cap defined as follows from the 2020 NHL CBA Memorandum of Understanding:

Except for the 2026-27 League Year, minimum year-over-year increase in the Upper Limit is the lesser of 2.5% and the trailing two-year average HRR growth percentage. (measured using Final HRR from the League Year four years prior, Final HRR from the League Year three years prior, and Preliminary HRR from two years prior and after taking into account any FX impact adjustments).

For simplicity, let’s use the 2.5% number which would take the cap up to a minimum of $85.59MM in 2024-25 and $87.73MM in 2025-26.  Any further jumps would be tied to increases in HRR which is harder to forecast.  I don’t anticipate a massive jump for 2024-25 as with quite a few teams in a tough spot with their regional rights, they’re either losing their deals altogether to move to an in-house production or will be negotiating cheaper contracts.  That won’t spin HRR in a negative direction but I think it will slow the anticipated growth.

The NHL won’t be getting to the cap levels of the NBA or NFL, however.  Those leagues have TV contracts worth more than the NHL’s entire revenue stream combined and I don’t sense a significant growth in TV ratings down the road that could allow the NHL to get that type of lucrative TV money.  The cap will be going up more than $1MM per year moving forward but it’s still going to check in well below those other leagues.

Emoney123: Who are the watch candidates in the 2024 draft for Flyers since it appears likely another rough season with a potential top-5 pick as well the 1st-round pick from Florida and 2nd-round picks from Columbus and LA? Celebrini seems headed towards #1, who could be other options? Hopefully the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train.

Right now, Macklin Celebrini seems to be the early consensus first pick.  He’s going to be challenged by Cole Eiserman, a high-end goal-scoring threat.  Ivan Demidov is an early wild card, a player who set the MHL (Russian junior league) record for most points as a 17-year-old.  But as we all know, Russian-born players have slipped at times in recent years.  On the back end, Artyom Levshunov and Sam Dickenson are the two top early candidates in a class that is expected to feature more blueliners than usual going within the lottery.  While it’s way too early to start ranking players, these five seem to be close to the consensus top five.

Generally speaking, this is not perceived as a particularly strong draft class compared to the 2023 one and some scouts appear to prefer the 2025 class.  Again, though, this can all certainly change.  If Philadelphia winds up with a high selection in June, they’re going to get a quality player, perhaps just not the franchise type of player that Chicago just selected.

Justajaysfan: How do you think Vegas will do this season? Is Adin Hill able to carry his success from last year’s playoffs into this season and be able to perform like a number 1?

I’m going to flip the order of these and talk about Hill first.  I’m not particularly bullish on him being a true number one goaltender but his career-high in regular season games played is 27.  Yes, he carried a starting workload for a good chunk of the playoffs but there’s a difference between that and being a six-month starter.  I don’t think he’ll be able to play at his playoff level (.932 SV%) over a full season, however.  The good news is that he shouldn’t have to.

Lost in the talk about Hill and his eventual re-signing is that the starting goalie from last season (Logan Thompson) is now healthy so they don’t need Hill to play at that level.  If the two play like they did a year ago when they each posted a .915 SV% during the regular season, the Golden Knights should once again be a contender for a top spot in the West.

Vegas is bringing back the majority of its Cup-winning group with Reilly Smith being the notable exception so they should be well-positioned to try to contend.  Edmonton could give them a run for their money (especially if they can find a way to get even a bit better of a performance between the pipes) and if Los Angeles gets better goaltending than I think they have, they could get in the mix as well.  I’m not going to predict a Stanley Cup repeat – it is still the summer with moves left to be made – but they should be in contention once again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the increasing willingness to have a three-goalie system, how the Central Division could shake out this coming season, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag or watch for it in our final one from this set of questions.

Grocery stick: How do teams see the goalie situation right now? We’ve seen the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup with Hill, Brossoit, and Thompson. The Panthers also relied on three different goalies in different stages of the season, reaching the Final.

Are teams trying to re-create a three-goalie situation on purpose now? How does a #3 goalkeeper stay match ready if he is not waivers exempt? Do teams need “timely” injuries to make a three-goalie rotation work? And what teams could go for a three-goalie rotation this season?

I don’t think teams are necessarily aiming for a three-goalie rotation by design.  Vegas was forced into that with injuries while Florida got to that point with Spencer Knight needing to take a leave of absence (and Sergei Bobrovsky really struggling for a time).  Truly, neither of those teams really had a three-man rotation either; only two were healthy and/or available for the majority of the season.

You note the issue with keeping that third-stringer fresh which is why most teams don’t see it as a viable long-term option.  After a few weeks, they’re asking that goalie to take a conditioning assignment to the AHL to stay fresh.  But that can only be done twice in a season and not all players agree to the request.  If a team tries to play three goalies more evenly, no one will be happy with their playing time.  As you termed it, timely injuries is the way to really make it work.

I think what we’ve seen over the last couple of years is teams placing a higher level of importance on who their third-stringer is.  Now, it’s not just a long-time AHL veteran that’s content to come up and sit on the bench for a few weeks if someone goes down; teams are looking for someone that can come in and play.  I wouldn’t necessarily classify that as a true three-goalie situation though.

One team that I think will go that route is Carolina.  Pyotr Kochetkov is still waiver-exempt for one more year and I think the Hurricanes will try to give him a bunch of starts in the AHL and then spot him some NHL action when they have an open roster spot and want to give one of Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta a night off.  (Although, with their injury history, there may very well be other opportunities on top of that.)

If Philadelphia starts Samuel Ersson in the minors, they could be another team in that situation.  Maybe Dustin Wolf gets some spot starts here and there in Calgary and if Alex Stalock beats out Lukas Dostal in Anaheim, Dostal could still see some NHL appearances spotted in.  In each of these situations, it’s a waiver-exempt goalie that’s part of the future in that situation, not a proven veteran.  That’s where the three-goalie structure by design makes the most sense.

Nha Trang: Heh, it’s time for my annual question now: who’s the guy who comes from out of nowhere to be a serious impact player this season?

Well, last year’s pick didn’t go quite as well as my one from the year before (Tage Thompson) although Taylor Raddysh hit 20 goals with Chicago in 2022-23 which isn’t bad for someone who had a sparing role with Tampa Bay for most of 2021-22.

Last year, I put in a self-imposed criterion that a player couldn’t be in the top 300 in scoring.  Otherwise, that player wouldn’t exactly be coming out of nowhere.  That takes some viable candidates off the table and certainly increases the level of difficulty of this question.

I’m going to go with Boston’s Morgan Geekie.  Here’s a player that only has 22 career goals to his name over parts of four NHL seasons although only two of those have been in a regular role.  Both of those campaigns were with Seattle where he spent a lot of time on the fourth line.  That shouldn’t be the case in Boston.

Due to the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, the Bruins don’t exactly have great depth down the middle.  At the moment, Geekie projects as their third-line center which is already a step up.  He was a scorer in the WHL.  He has 93 points in 130 AHL games which isn’t too shabby by any stretch.  I could see him making a push for 20 goals next season which would be great production from someone in the bottom six that has yet to reach the double-digit mark in a single season.  Couple that with him generally being on the happy side of 50% at the faceoff dot and him showing last year that he can cover some time on the penalty kill and Geekie could wind up being a pretty impactful player for Boston.

If you want a couple of real longshot wild cards, I’ll suggest San Jose’s Jacob Peterson and Arizona’s Michael Carcone.  Peterson didn’t look out of place in a top-six role with the Sharks down the stretch after spending most of the year in the minors.  If he makes the team in that role, he could surprise.  Carcone, meanwhile, has lit it up in the AHL but a strong showing at the Worlds with Canada earned him a two-year, one-way deal.  I’m not sure he’s going to score enough to really qualify as a good answer for this question but he could become a capable bottom-six winger at the age of 27 and many years in the minors.

Weasel 3: Honest evaluation of PLD’s chances providing any surplus value on his extension please.

In the short term, I don’t see much of a window for that to happen.  He’s likely to be on the second line for a year or two and those players generally don’t produce enough to provide surplus value on a contract worth $8.5MM per season.  That isn’t to say he won’t have an impact – Dubois definitely will – but I don’t think anyone will be calling his deal a bargain.

Longer term, however, I can see a pathway to surplus value.  If he can up his production to a point per game level while asserting himself more physically, now we’re talking about a center in or around the top 20 at his position with an element that few other middlemen provide.  He’d be a power forward getting paid market value, not the typical premium that power forwards get.  In that sense, then, he’d be providing some surplus value.

The other option to getting positive value on Dubois’ contract is if the Upper Limit really starts to rise.  If we see a few jumps in the cap, salaries around the league will only go up.  If those increases push 60 and 70-point players up to this price point, Dubois could provide some surplus value assuming his production improves following the swap.

At this point, I’m not sure I’d qualify the idea of Dubois providing surplus value to the Kings as probable.  But there are a couple of plausible ways that it could happen.  I don’t think Los Angeles is really expecting that to happen.  If he gives them 60-70 points per season, they’ll be pleased with the contract, even if it is one that winds up being a little overpriced in the end.

blues1967: How do you see the Central shaking out? I think Colorado and Dallas are clear front runners, Arizona and Chicago bring up the rear, and the other four will battle it out in the middle. Not sure who has the advantage between the Blues, Wild, Preds and Jets.

Dallas and Colorado are certainly the class of the division.  Colorado won the division by a point last season but at this point, I’m inclined to hand the early edge to the Stars with the Avs in second.  I don’t expect there to be a third team in that group like Minnesota was last season.

I do, however, lean toward the Wild being the third seed still.  I expect their goaltending to take a step back but I think their offense will be a bit more successful than a year ago when they were 22nd.  That should offset some of the goaltending give-back and keep them in.

As for who the top Wild Card contender might be, I’d go with St. Louis.  I think Jordan Binnington will be better and if not, Joel Hofer can push for more playing time.  Their offensive depth is better than it might seem at first glance and they have one of the better defense groups still.  They could surprise some teams.

Nashville and Winnipeg have definitely taken steps back.  On paper, the Jets could very well push for the third seed still but with a pair of core veterans on expiring deals, it’s hardly a guarantee they’re there for the entire season.  Meanwhile, I expect that the Predators are going to struggle to score in a big way.  Right now, I could be convinced to put Arizona ahead of them and then Chicago will likely be at the bottom even with Connor Bedard in the fold.

jacl: The Stars win the Stanley Cup this year. Am I right or am I right? I think Johnston gets 35 goals easily. They have a lot of good young talent that should be ready for a role on the team.

Generally speaking, with questions about a team or the field, I’ll go with the field.  But Dallas is a legitimate contender, I’ll go that far.  Their attack is quite deep (deep enough that makes me think Wyatt Johnston isn’t going to check in quite that high in goals in his sophomore season) so they should be near the top of the conference in that department.  Jake Oettinger is a high-end goaltender.  That’s two of the three they’re in really good shape in.

The back end is where I’m still concerned, however.  It was a weak spot at times last year and they’ve done nothing of much consequence.  Gavin Bayreuther replaced Colin Miller and well, that’s it.  They’re clearly banking on Thomas Harley stepping into a key full-time role and Nils Lundkvist taking a big step forward.  It’s possible that both happen but that’s certainly on the optimistic side.

The reality is that behind Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, things thin out quickly.  It was a problem in the playoffs when Ryan Suter was asked to play big minutes, a role he’s not suited for at the age of 38.  If GM Jim Nill can find a way to add an impact top-four defender, that just might be the final piece of the puzzle to give a real shot at going all the way.  With their cap situation, that move won’t be coming for a while.

KRB: The Capitals may have got the steal of the draft in #40 pick Andrew Cristall. And I’ll guess that he plays in the NHL sooner, rather than later. The reason why is because at the start of the 2024-25 season, he’ll be 19, too young for the AHL, but probably too good for the WHL. So he’s a Cap then. Thoughts?

I was surprised to see Cristall slip that deep in the draft as he felt like a worthwhile gamble in the 20s for a team looking to take a big swing on a player who, if all pans out, could be a quality top-six NHL winger.  I liked that pick for them a lot.  But he’s undersized and there are questions about how his game will translate to the pros.  Some smaller players find a way to make a mark but a lot don’t.

I get your point about Washington possibly not wanting to send Cristall back for his 19-year-old season as he won’t have much left to show at the major junior level.  But is he going to be able to hold down at least a third-line spot with the Capitals that season?  (I wouldn’t want any junior-aged prospect toiling away on the fourth line from a development standpoint.)  That I’m not so sure about.  I think they will want his defensive game to get a lot better so that Cristall isn’t exploited in that regard in the NHL.  Can that level of improvement happen in the WHL?  It’s possible but not probable as Kelowna will be wanting him to focus on his offense, not so much the defense.

There isn’t a great solution.  Washington I’m sure would love to send Cristall to the AHL in 2024-25 but the CHL agreement isn’t going away anytime soon.  Between the NHL and WHL, I think they’ll play it safe and ultimately send him back down and then get him to Hershey the following year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Boston, the state of San Jose’s rebuild, and more.  As we’ve done with the last few mailbag submissions, we’ll break it up into three separate columns so if your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in one of the next two.

SkidRowe: How will the Bruins fare this year? The reigning Presidents Trophy winners are returning with virtually the same defense and goaltending as last year but lost almost a third of their offense due to the departures of Bergeron, Krejci, Hall, Bertuzzi, etc.

I’ll qualify this by saying that I’m not convinced the roster they have today in mid-August is the one we’ll see when the puck drops in October.  I think they have a move coming to help up front.  Not a high-end one with a big-name player but I expect them to upgrade their secondary scoring at some point.  If they do more than I think they will, this prediction could change as a result.

But for now, I have them just missing.  (Which is where I had them last year and look how accurate that prediction turned out…)  Offensively, they’ve taken a couple of steps back which could put them back closer to the middle of the pack.  Not that they needed to outscore a lot of problems last season but a more average attack will take some wins off the board.

Without as much puck control, I’m also a bit concerned about their goaltending.  It would be unrealistic to expect both Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman to have career years again in general but without an offense as dominant, that will also put more pressure on the netminders.  I expect them to still be above average but nowhere near the extent they were last season.  That will take some more wins off the board unless they find a way to play at the same level.

Boston’s roster is still decent, all things considered.  But with Toronto, Florida, and Tampa Bay in the picture, decent isn’t good enough to leapfrog those teams.  I think this could be the year Buffalo puts it together long enough to squeak in and with the depth in the Metropolitan Division, the Atlantic isn’t getting both Wild Card spots.  It wouldn’t shock me if the Bruins found a way to get in but right now, I have them just on the outside looking in.

PyramidHeadcrab: What do you think of the Sharks’ roster after the Karlsson trade, and their future roadmap now that his salary is (mostly) clear?

In terms of what their roster looks like now, my thought is that it’s a roster designed with the intention to try to bottom out.  There’s no way a team is going to improve after losing Brent Burns, Timo Meier, and Erik Karlsson in the span of 13 months.  The fact they opted to move the two veterans in a marketplace that wasn’t exactly favorable for high-priced contracts only cemented the fact that they weren’t looking for a short-term turnaround.

They’re going to struggle to score even with some of the additions they’ve made up front; I think Mikael Granlund could rebound relatively well there but this is still a group that should be at the bottom of the pack offensively.  Defensively, they’re in big trouble as a few of the options on their projected roster are either fringe pieces or overpaid veterans struggling to hang onto a spot.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see the speculated trade with Vancouver happen closer to training camp which would add Tyler Myers but that still wouldn’t move the needle much.  There are questions with both goaltenders as well (although there is also some possible upside) and the end result is a forecast for a painful season.

In terms of a future roadmap, however, it’s relatively clean.  They only have three contracts above $5MM left and around 40% of their roster is on an expiring contract next summer.  That will give GM Mike Grier some flexibility to perhaps get involved as a third-party facilitator in the future to try to restock the prospect cupboards more quickly while flipping some of those expiring deals in the meantime.  The next few years are going to be rough but it’s pretty clear what the plan is.  Getting to this point is the easy part, however.  Building it back up will take some patience and skill to get and develop the right pieces.

Jasen: I am curious about the Flames this year… My gut feeling is that both Lindholm and Backlund will re-sign. My other gut feeling is that Hanifin will be traded. I am thinking a one-for-one for Carolina’s Pesce. Thoughts?

I am also not sold on a bounce-back season from Markstrom. Sure, his stats do demonstrate that he did come back from a bad season before, but I’m still not sold. Markstrom, so I’d ship him to WPG for Hellebuyck. Problem is that we are light on 1st rounders. So Markstrom, 2025 2nd & prospect Zary for Hellebuyck. Thoughts?

I’m with you on Elias Lindholm eventually re-signing.  Mikael Backlund is more of a maybe but I expect an in-season decision on that front.  I also agree that it looks unlikely that Noah Hanifin will be back.

That said, I’m not sure I agree with the proposed trade.  Carolina has a bit of a surplus on the back end so they may not want to take a defender back for whichever one they moved (Brett Pesce or Brady Skjei).  Meanwhile, the impetus for moving Hanifin now would be the contract situation; GM Craig Conroy has said he doesn’t want to run the risk of letting a player go for nothing.  Trading for Pesce doesn’t fix that since he’s on an expiring deal too.  Now, if Pesce comes with a new contract, then sure, this makes more sense for Calgary.  But otherwise, it feels like they need to get an asset back that’s likely to still be there a year from now.

The same concern comes up for your Connor Hellebuyck proposal.  If he isn’t willing to sign an extension, you’ve now moved a quality goalie and a first-round prospect in Connor Zary for a short-term rental.  Perhaps more importantly, you’ve moved those pieces for a rental that might not be enough of a difference-maker to get Calgary back into the playoffs.  What you’ve proposed might be enough on Winnipeg’s end (especially since they’re hoping to avoid a full-scale rebuild) I don’t think the value is there for the Flames.  Sure, there’s an eventual pathway to Dustin Wolf getting a full-time job but there are better ways to accomplish that than this.

I’m more confident than you seem to be about Markstrom bouncing back.  The track record is there and this is a team that still has a pretty good back end as things stand.  If they decide to move him down the road to make room for Wolf, that’s an easier move to make next summer off an improved showing than it is now.

Black Ace57: With the whole ordeal with Ivan Fedotov I was wondering what powers the IIHF has in this dispute and any future disputes between the NHL and KHL until an agreement between the leagues is made again.

I have to admit, I’m a bit unsure about this one as we’re wading in uncharted waters here.  The IIHF is a neutral third party here and since they’re the governing body for most leagues internationally, I suspect there’s some sort of dispute resolution rights within their charter that gives them the authority to do this.

I’m more intrigued to see what happens if the ruling goes in Philadelphia’s favor.  Considering that Russia hasn’t been granted the right to return to international competition, some are already calling for the federation to withdraw from the IIHF.  An unfavorable ruling here could only cement that mindset.  If that happens and the KHL tries to operate independently of everything, let’s just say that could be really interesting to follow.

While we’re on the Fedotov matter, I’m at least a little surprised the Flyers are doing this.  Fedotov is going straight to unrestricted free agency when his tolled deal is played out.  At this point, it seems reasonable to think his intention is to stay in the KHL which would make him a one-and-done player.  Wouldn’t they be better off with his one-and-done cost-controlled year coming when they’re trying to be more competitive?

They already have Carter Hart in place.  The extension they gave to Samuel Ersson (which seemed a bit pricey and a bit too early) suggests they have NHL plans for him next season.  If Fedotov winds up with Philadelphia, now he’s backing up Hart and Ersson is in the minors, putting him on an above-market bridge deal the next year.  There’s sticking up for the principle of the matter but from a team value perspective, they might be better off with a ruling that says he has to play out the KHL deal first and then must fulfill the NHL agreement.

Yzerplan19: Thoughts on what impact Babcock can have on the Blue Jackets? They have a new D group, and some talented players, with a good system could they be in the Wild Card conversation this year? Or next?

I covered Columbus and Babcock a bit in a recent mailbag so I’ll piggyback off those thoughts.  They’ll be better but I don’t see them being in the playoff mix next season.  The Metropolitan is pretty deep as it is and I have a hard time seeing them get around 35 more points than last season.

I’m even a bit iffy on their fortunes for 2024-25.  There is a good young nucleus in place but they’re not near their primes just yet.  I think 2025-26 is the year for them to really turn it around.  By then, that young core will be more established and will have gone through enough of the early growing pains that many young teams face which will have them well-positioned to make a push.

I actually don’t mind the Mike Babcock hire.  Last season was ugly and they need some structure.  Yes, his last few seasons behind an NHL bench weren’t great but he was widely considered a top coach in the past.  A good system, and perhaps more importantly, good structure, should aid in the development of some of their core youngsters.  That should help them improve in the standings and give GM Jarmo Kekalainen a better assessment of what they have and what they still need which is quite important.  But even with the pickups they made on the back end, I don’t see that getting them to the postseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

It has been a busy offseason so far for many NHL teams, punctuated by one of the bigger trades we’ve seen in a while which occurred over the weekend.  Meanwhile, there are a handful of notable names still unsigned so there’s some hope that there could be more activity to come before training camps get underway in about six weeks.

With that in mind, it’s a good time to run our next mailbag.  Our last one ran in three parts.  The first segment looked back at the draft, what should be expected from the Flyers next season, and the Kings’ aggression in recent years.  The second discussed Boston’s center situation, Robby Fabbri’s future with Detroit, and expectations for Columbus in 2023-24.  Meanwhile, the third one examined the recent inactivity from Calgary and Winnipeg with some of their veterans, Ty Smith’s first season with Pittsburgh, and big names that could be on the move next.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.  The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Calgary and Winnipeg, Ty Smith’s situation in Pittsburgh, Atlantic Division predictions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag pieces.

Grocery Stick: What can we expect from the Flames and the Jets? Both teams have players who want out but apart from Dubois to the Kings, we haven’t seen anything so far.

Calgary hasn’t given up on re-signing Elias Lindholm yet and by all accounts, it doesn’t appear he’s 100% sure he wants to leave.  Until he says a final no to the Flames, I think he stays put.  I’m a bit surprised that Noah Hanifin is still around as it sounds like his desire to leave is a little more concrete.  However, the acquiring teams are going to want to try to extend him as well, adding another wrinkle to discussions.  I think there’s a decent shot he goes this summer but it might need to wait until Erik Karlsson’s situation is sorted out first.

Mikael Backlund is the other player of some note and he, too, has balked at an extension thus far.  However, he recently raised the possibility of an in-season signing depending on how things are going.  That gives GM Craig Conroy some runway to work with.  I expect his situation to go unresolved heading into the season and they’ll re-assess closer to the trade deadline.  I suspect they’re still open to moving Daniel Vladar although there aren’t many viable trade options for him left.  Calgary has a path to a cap-compliant roster with what they have now so they don’t have to necessarily do anything else before the season starts.

For Winnipeg, unless Connor Hellebuyck’s reported contract ask comes down from the $9MM range, I don’t think his trade market is going to be good enough for the Jets to get enough of a return to justify moving him.  They’re not giving up on chasing a playoff spot and hanging in the mix is a lot easier with Hellebuyck than without.  Starting the season with him and looking to move him closer to the deadline has its risks (an injury or buyers not needing a starting goalie) but I think it’s a very realistic option that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is considering.

As for Mark Scheifele, I’ve flip-flopped on this answer all summer.  Going back to the point about Winnipeg wanting to push for a playoff spot, I could see them keeping him to start and hoping that a hot start might convince him to extend.  I don’t think there are a lot of viable landing spots for him in terms of getting him to fit into someone else’s cap picture.  Midseason, it’s generally easier to move money and the Jets might be willing to retain at that time, something that would be tougher for them to do now.  As of this moment, I think he stays to start the season.  By the time we run another mailbag, I might have flip-flopped again on this one.

jason830: Best and worst stadiums to see a hockey game?

I watch a lot of hockey but very seldom do I actually go to a game in person.  I’ve been to a grand total of one NHL game live and that was more than a decade ago.  I’m not the right one to answer this so let me turn this over to some of our other writers.

Josh Erickson: For the best, Vegas would get my vote by a mile. Incredible atmosphere, great sightlines, great fans, and reasonably priced food (at the time, it was during their inaugural season).  For the worst, my vote would easily go to the old Gila River Arena in Glendale.

Josh Cybulski: Best: The atmosphere is insane and with over 21K fans in the building, you feel right on top of the players and your view of the ice is really something. It also helps that the pre and post-game spots are fantastic.  Worst: Ottawa – It is a run-down building without many frills that is surrounded by car dealerships and an outlet mall 30 minutes from downtown. To top it all off, getting in and out of the building is a nightmare, even on nights when only 12K fans show up. The wind whips across the wide-open field, meaning that when you leave the building after the game you have a half-mile walk in a blizzard to get to your frozen car. Not fun.

Ethan Hetu: I would add Arena Riga in Riga, Latvia to the best list. I had the chance to go there earlier this summer and see Latvia win some big games at the Worlds, and I’ll say there aren’t many places in hockey where I’ve witnessed fans as devoted and passionate as Latvians for their national team. It was packed full of people and even the outside area was filled with people who didn’t have tickets but still wanted to be in close proximity to the action, watching on big screens right outside. It felt as though an entire country was at a standstill, entirely focused on being there to help Latvia win.

The arena itself is pretty no-frills and not really up to the standard of what NHL teams play in (sort of to be expected) but in terms of atmosphere, you really can’t beat what goes on in Riga, they really do love hockey there.

Jasen: I think Max Lajoie would thrive in Montréal and be a nice supplement to Anderson as another big power forward. I’d love for my beloved Habitants to go get Lafreniere from the Rangers. Thoughts on the cost? Also, I think Ethan Bear would be a nice addition to our defense. Thoughts?

For the first question, I assume you’re asking about Max Comtois as Maxime Lajoie is a defenseman who now is in Toronto’s system.  In theory, he could be that player for the Canadiens but he wasn’t that player the last two seasons in Anaheim.  On top of that, Montreal already has a bit of a logjam up front.  Depending on how certain things shake out, he could make sense on a one-year flyer but as things stand, I don’t think there’s a roster fit for Comtois even though they could use a bit more size in an Atlantic Division that has bulked up over the summer.

As for Alexis Lafreniere, this came up before the draft.  I didn’t see a good fit then and frankly, there’s even less of one now.  The Rangers are in win-now mode but Montreal doesn’t really have a good low-cost veteran (the AAV is a big factor for New York which takes some of the pricier players off the table) to move.  Their best offer is a futures-based one which doesn’t do the Rangers any good right now.  I don’t think the Canadiens should be moving their unprotected 2024 first-round pick which takes the idea of an offer sheet in the $4.29MM to $6.435MM range off the table; they can’t do one for less as they don’t have their own second-rounder.  Lafreniere fits with what Montreal is trying to do in the sense of getting a young core of first-round talents up front and hoping for internal growth.  But unless New York can flip a futures-based package from the Canadiens elsewhere for a win-now piece, I don’t see a plausible trade scenario between the two sides.

As for Bear, he’s going to miss the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery so I don’t anticipate him signing anytime soon.  A 26-year-old right-shot defender should have some value to a team like the Canadiens but where does he fit in on their roster?  David Savard isn’t going anywhere next season (2024-25 might be a different story though).  They need to see where Justin Barron fits in long term so sending him to AHL Laval to make room for Bear is a step back development-wise.  They really like Johnathan Kovacevic on the third pairing so I don’t think he’s going either.  Chris Wideman is the probable seventh defender as things stand (at this point, I expect Arber Xhekaj to start in Laval where he can at least play over being the seventh defender) but signing someone like Bear to provide an upgrade on a healthy scratch doesn’t really move the needle.  And if they were to play Bear on his off-side, I don’t think he displaces any of their top three options there either.  If injuries strike early, then sure, Bear fits as a plug-and-play option on the third pairing once he’s healthy.  But right now, I don’t see where he fits in to justify signing him now.

WilfPaiement: I’m wondering why Ty Smith seems to be buried in the minors, and when he gets called up he does quite well.

Last season was certainly an odd one for Smith who went from being a regular with New Jersey to being a key part of the trade return for John Marino to spending most of the season with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.  Not all of this was due to factors within his control, however.

The Penguins were right up against the salary cap last season to the point where finding cap space for recalls was getting challenging.  Accordingly, someone making closer to the minimum became more appealing.  That worked in the favor of a veteran like Mark Friedman who made close to $100K less than Smith, who had the added ‘benefit’ of being waiver-exempt.  When you’re trying to bank cap space, cheaper recalls are more preferable so having Friedman come up allowed them to save money and keep Smith playing big minutes in the AHL.

This wasn’t the only reason, however.  After two full NHL campaigns, Smith was sent down to dominate and he didn’t quite do that.  He was above-average on the farm, no doubt, but he also didn’t become the go-to number one I think they were hoping he would.  And in his limited action with Pittsburgh, you’re right, he didn’t fare all that poorly although he benefitted from some sheltered matchups when he was in there.

The good news for Smith is that he’s now waiver-eligible.  It stands to reason that the Penguins aren’t going to risk waiving him to send him back to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton so his days of being buried in the minors should be over.  Now, it’s going to be a matter of cracking their regular lineup, something that should completely be in his hands.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include the potential fit in Boston for a pair of key rental centers, fair expectations for a new-look Blue Jackets squad, rules surrounding bonuses, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while there will also be one that runs tomorrow.

PyramidHeadcrab: Considering the changes brought by the draft and UFA day, what are some teams you see making the playoffs in 2024 that weren’t really in the picture in 2023? And what are some teams you see missing the playoffs?

And who are your favorite three teams to finish with the highest draft lottery odds?

I tackled a similar question to this one last month before free agency so let’s check in on those teams and see what has changed.

In the East, I had Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo as playoff candidates among those that missed a year ago.  As things stand, I’m not as bullish on the Sens now as I was then as I’m not overly confident that Joonas Korpisalo is going to move the needle enough in goal and their offense has taken a step back for the time being.  The Penguins have improved its roster this summer so I still expect them to jump back in and while the Sabres haven’t done much, they’ve added to their back end and can rely on internal growth up front to bolster their chances.  I think they still get in.

As for my candidates to miss, I had Florida, the Islanders, and possibly Tampa Bay.  The Panthers have added some depth which helps but their question will be how impactful their early-season injuries will be.  I’m leaning more toward them being in now, however.  New York didn’t exactly improve or get worse so they’ll probably be just in or just out.  The Lightning are definitely weaker and while I’m not ready to proclaim they’re a non-playoff team yet, I think they’re vulnerable.  I could see Boston missing out now unless their goaltending tandem is able to play at a similar level next season; that would be the great equalizer after losing a lot of firepower.

As for the West, I had Vancouver getting in and maybe St. Louis.  The Canucks have mostly stayed quiet this summer and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.  On paper, they’re a better team than their record has been and if they play up to their potential, they’re a playoff-caliber squad.  I like what the Blues have done, getting Kevin Hayes on the cheap and adding Oskar Sundqvist for the minimum.  I’m still skeptical that they’ll get in but they’re better than they were a few weeks ago.

My main candidate to miss from the West a few weeks ago was Winnipeg and that hasn’t really changed.  They’re a weaker team than they were before with an expectation of two more key players moving between now and the trade deadline.  That’s probably not a good recipe to make the playoffs.  Since I had to pick two teams a month ago, my other one was Seattle.  They haven’t done much one way or the other so they’re still a bubble team in my books.

On the other end of the scale, I have Philadelphia in the bottom three as they’re going to go through some growing pains.  San Jose doesn’t have a great roster and if they move Erik Karlsson in a trade that likely won’t bring back much win-now help, they’re going to struggle.  As for the third team, I’m not really too confident in this one but I’ll say Anaheim with the assumption that John Gibson gets moved.  With weak goaltending, that will offset some improvements from their young core, keeping them near the bottom again.

SkidRowe: What would it take to bring Mark Scheifele or Elias Lindholm to the Bruins?

For the purposes of this answer, I’m going to operate under the assumption that it’s an extend-and-trade agreement for both players.  As straight rentals, I don’t think Boston should be pursuing them, at least at this point.

For Scheifele, I think their best shot at getting him is if (or when, perhaps) Connor Hellebuyck gets moved.  Winnipeg is looking for win-now pieces in the hopes of avoiding a rebuild.  I don’t think they’d have a lot of interest in Linus Ullmark (who might have the Jets on his partial no-trade list anyway) but Jeremy Swayman would be an intriguing piece.  If the two moves are made concurrently, the team that gets Hellebuyck could theoretically move the center back for Hellebuyck with Boston’s package for Scheifele being headlined by a controllable young starter in Swayman.

Cap-wise, another piece needs to be in there, likely Derek Forbort or Matt Grzelcyk, both on expiring contracts.  That makes the money work when you factor in the budgeted contract for Swayman.  But there probably needs to be another headline piece in there and that’s where it gets tricky.  Would they move Fabian Lysell?  If I’m Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, I’m asking for him in that package as Swayman for an extended Scheifele slants too heavily in Boston’s favor.  That’s at least where I see the foundation of a move for him.

As for Lindholm, talk about pretty much the ideal replacement for Patrice Bergeron, at least on paper.  Finding a trade match will be a lot trickier, however, as they’re not going to have interest in one of Boston’s goalies.  They also have less cap flexibility than Boston does so now we’re talking about basically a straight money match which limits options.  There aren’t a lot of combinations that work; the closest money-wise might be Jake DeBrusk and either Ian Mitchell or Jakub Zboril.  The problem is a package headlined by those two isn’t getting Lindholm as a rental let alone as an extended player and the Bruins simply lack the draft pick and prospect capital to put a viable package together.  There’s an outside shot to do something with Scheifele but I don’t see a fit for a trade for Lindholm even though he’d basically be the perfect on-ice fit for them.

Brassroo: Robby Fabbri is a decent player when healthy, but I’d like to see younger players get their chances. Any likelihood that he gets bought out or traded?

We can cross off the buyout option as the time that Detroit could have done that has come and gone.  I’d also put the odds of a trade somewhere between slim and nil.  I doubt there’s a team out there that’s willing to trade an asset for Fabbri when they can go sign a similar free agent for less than the two years at $4MM per season.  Meanwhile, the Red Wings aren’t in a spot where they need to free up a roster spot or cap space so it doesn’t make much sense for them to either pay down the contract with retention or give up an asset to get a team with cap room to take on Fabbri’s deal.

There is another option that could achieve your objective though – waivers.  If it gets to a point where Detroit needs a roster spot up front for a younger player that’s forcing their hand, they can just waive Fabbri and send him to Grand Rapids when he clears.  They only clear $1.15MM off the cap in doing so but they’re far enough under where that’s not a problem.  GM Steve Yzerman isn’t afraid to take that route either – Alex Nedeljkovic, Adam Erne, and Jakub Vrana all had AHL stints last season on one-way deals.  That might be the best way for them to accomplish the goal of opening a spot for a prospect without waiting for an injury to arise.

Devil Shark: Which team do you think has the best bottom 6 in the league?

Which team do you think has the best 5th and 6th D pair in the league?

Which team do you think has the best league ready depth playing in the AHL and ready to call up?

Subject to change since there’s bound to be a lot of bottom-six activity in the next two months but I’ll go with Dallas as things stand.  There’s a mixture of youth (Ty Dellandrea and maybe Wyatt Johnston; otherwise veteran Matt Duchene might be in there), scoring depth (at least two of Evgenii Dadonov, Mason Marchment, Duchene, and Tyler Seguin), and some capable veterans in Craig Smith and Radek Faksa.  Sam Steel is also in that group and has proven to be serviceable and I wouldn’t be shocked if a prospect like Logan Stankoven forces his way into the mix.  That’s a group with a fair bit of firepower and versatility.

For the best third pairing, I’ll go with Vegas.  Assuming Alec Martinez plays up at five-on-five with Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore stay intact, that has the third pairing at Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud.  Both players can move onto the second pairing without an issue if injuries arise which also means they can carry heavier minutes than a typical third duo.  They’re also young enough that there’s still room for improvement.  That’s a third pairing a lot of teams would love to have for themselves.

The last one is a bit of an eye of the beholder question.  When I think of NHL-ready depth, I’m looking for players that can easily be slotted in depth roles.  Based on that definition, Pittsburgh stands out as they should have multiple players with NHL experience in AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, assuming they get through waivers to get there.  Columbus has a bit of a roster crunch which could result in them sending some younger players down that are capable of playing bigger roles; they might not be as proven as some of Pittsburgh’s options but the upside is better which might be more appealing depending on what it is you’re looking for from a depth perspective.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include last month’s draft, a discussion on if the Kings have loaded up too early, the KHL salary cap, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back next weekend when we’ll run two more mailbags based on the questions from our most recent callout.

Gbear: Which teams’ draft selections did you really like and which did you really not like?

I liked Chicago’s draft and not just because they got a franchise player in Connor Bedard.  Oliver Moore slipping to them at 19 was nice for them and as a result, it’s quite possible that their top two centers of the future will come from this class.  Adam Gajan is one of the higher-projected goalies from this draft class and while I’m not certain there’s a true starter out of the bunch, he could be an option for them in a few years.  They have a shot at three impact players out of this draft class which would be a great outcome.

Buffalo also did well.  Zach Benson slipping outside of the top ten was certainly fortuitous for them and Anton Wahlberg was rated by some as a first-round talent that they got in the second round.  I think Maxim Strbak could play on an NHL back end in the future while Scott Ratzlaff is someone I mentioned in a previous mailbag as an under-the-radar goalie prospect that could see his stock rise next season.

It’s harder to pick classes that I didn’t like as much as there are several teams that didn’t have great drafts simply because they didn’t have many picks.  It’s hard to hold that performance against them.

But one team that puzzled me was Arizona.  It’s not that Dmitri Simashev and Daniil But weren’t first-round caliber players.  They certainly were.  But it’s fair to say that those were pretty sizable reaches at six and twelve.  As we now have heard in several reports, there were teams looking to trade up and I feel the Coyotes might have lost out on an opportunity to gain some extra assets.  Yes, they have plenty of picks already but just because they did doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have looked at the trade-down scenarios where they still likely would have got their desired players.

Emoney123: After signing Cates and York this week, will the Flyers score enough to compete this season?

What is the status of the Flyers goalie chart? They seem to like drafting Russian goalies with Fedotov, Kolosov, and Zavragin… will any make it to the NHL with the Flyers? Will Sandstrom and Ersson start the season at Lehigh Valley while Maier at Reading and Bjarnson staying in the WHL? Hart as the presumed starter with Petersen as backup or does Briere dive headfirst and trade Hart to continue the rebuild? What would a probable return for Hart look like?

I don’t get the sense that the Flyers are looking to compete next season…at least in the traditional sense.  The moves they’ve made are that of a team that has an eye on bottoming out and trying to become a contender in the Macklin Celebrini sweepstakes.  So, are they going to score enough to compete at the top end of the standings?  No, but they’ll score enough to compete at the bottom of them.  Next season should be about giving their young forwards extended looks in key roles to see how many of them can realistically be a part of their long-term core.  With that approach will come some scoring droughts.

Of the three Russian goalies, Ivan Fedotov has the best shot at making it to the NHL.  He can play at this level now.  Of course, there’s the latest issue to navigate with the KHL registering a contract for Fedotov even though his NHL agreement is tolled.  I don’t think we’ve heard the last of things on that front.  If he winds up in the NHL after all is said and done, he’s the backup for Carter Hart and Calvin Petersen is once again an expensive third-string option.  Of the others you listed, I think you have the desired Lehigh Valley tandem if Felix Sandstrom clears waivers, Carson Bjarnason will stay in junior, and Nolan Meier isn’t currently under contract for next season.

I could be completely wrong on this but I think the idea of trading Hart has come and gone.  Connor Hellebuyck is in play.  So is John Gibson.  I don’t think it’s entirely impossible that Boston has to trade one of their goalies if an opportunity to add another piece arises.  This is not a marketplace to go into and command top value for Hart’s services.  If they can’t get top value, they shouldn’t be moving him at this time.

Schwa: With rumors that Tarasenko wants to stay with the Rangers, so you see them moving Goodrow and Vlad taking a discount? What does it take to move Goodie’s contract out?

Considering that Vladimir Tarasenko fired his agent earlier this month, I’m not certain that he’s willing to sign for a significant discount.  If that was the case, he’d have advised his old agent to get a deal done with the Rangers.  Instead, his new agency is starting the process all over again.  Is it possible that he’s open to a discount?  Perhaps.  But his recent actions suggest that it’s not his Plan A.  I’m intrigued to see where he lands as I think he’s one of the dominoes that needs to come off the board before we start to see a bit of activity on the trade front.

As for what it’d take to move Goodrow’s contract out?  My initial thought is more than what New York would be willing to part with.  In this market with so few teams willing or able to take on money (and even less willing to take on term), I think it would start with a first-round pick with a decent prospect on top of it.  Is that a price worth paying to keep Tarasenko?  I suppose it could be but it’d depend on how long he’d be willing to sign for.  As a rental on a discount contract, probably not.  For multiple years on a below-market deal though?  I suppose it could be a consideration.

Goodrow is a capable bottom-six player and he certainly fills some needs on the Rangers.  But an AAV of over $3.6MM is on the high side when most role players are signing for half of that or less.  Four more years of that contract is also a longer term than most free agents have been getting.  That’s a double whammy that will make him tough to move as effective as he is.

rpoabr: Did the Kings push their chips in too soon to try to take advantage of Kopitar and Doughty still being productive? Traded away a lot of draft capital and upside players over the last year.

I remember having that same thought last year around the time they traded for Kevin Fiala.  It’s not that it was a bad trade but it seemed like they were fast-tracking just a little bit.  Safe to say that one has worked out so far.  At least at the deadline last season, they addressed the goaltending temporarily and with getting Vladislav Gavrikov to extend on a short-term contract, they’ll get some value out of the first-rounder they gave up there.

I don’t mind the package they gave up for Pierre-Luc Dubois, however, one that was more quantity than true quality.  Alex Iafallo and Gabriel Vilardi are good supporting-cast players but if they’re the anchor pieces for a long-term center, take it and run.  Rasmus Kupari’s stock has been sliding so moving him out isn’t the end of the world either.  Impact centers are hard to trade for and this wasn’t an overpayment so I think it was a good move for them to make.

Fundamentally speaking, I understand why they’re pushing in their chips now.  Drew Doughty is still at the top of his game and Anze Kopitar is still a high-end center.  Some of their younger players are on club-friendly contracts so their window is now.  At this point, my biggest concern for them is that they basically ignored the goaltending position.  A Cam Talbot–Pheonix Copley tandem isn’t good enough in my view to contend in the playoffs.  I expect they’ll be trying to address that in-season if they want to best position themselves for a long postseason run.

Gmm8811: Wondering if you can share any info on how the salaries work in the KHL? Cap? Minimum salary? Top pay? Any info on AHL salaries also? Does a player on a non-NHL contract have a minimum?

For the KHL, I can give you numbers from recent seasons at least.  Their cap in 2022-23 was 900 million rubles (around $12.8MM US) with a floor of 315 million rubles (roughly $4.8MM US).  Last June, Championat in Russia revealed the top-13 salaries in the league from the year before.  Blackhawks ‘prospect’ Max Shalunov was the highest in 2021-22 at 90 million rubles (around $1MM US).  A 2011 draft pick, Shalunov is still property of Chicago should he decide to try his hand in the NHL.  I assume there’s a minimum salary in that league although I wasn’t able to find what it was.

As for the AHL, I can fill in some blanks.  There is a CBA for that league (which expires in August 2024) and the minimum salary for the upcoming season is $52,725 US for players on one-way AHL contracts.  For players on two-way deals with the ECHL as well, the minimum is $41,625 for US-based teams or $54,100 for Canadian-based clubs paying in that currency.  There is no salary cap or maximum salary for that league.  Players on AHL-only contracts seldom have the financial terms released but we’ve seen some recent NHL two-way contracts around the $500K mark in AHL salary (or at least a guaranteed portion).

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago and their goaltending, way-too-early predictions for new playoff teams next season, Sergei Bobrovsky’s volatility, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbags.

Unclemike1526: The Blackhawks have Mrazek and Soderblom-Stauber for this year. We’re stuck with Mrazek. So Commesso, and maybe Basse in the system. I think the Hawks should draft Hrabal, however they need to. I saw one mock draft saying the Hawks would draft Trey Augustine in the second round. What is your opinion of Hrabal and Augustine? I think the Hawks stay put at 1 and 19. Then they take their high second-round pick and package it with a player or more picks to get back into the late 1st round and take Hrabal or if he’s gone, Gauthier. I think that would be a great scenario for the Hawks. I think you can never have enough good goalies. Thoughts?

I like Michael Hrabal but it feels to me like his stock is soaring a bit too high right now.  Yes, he’s big and big is good for a goalie but I’m not convinced he’s a 1A starter down the road.  He’s raw and rangy and those players don’t always pan out.  Size allows him to get to more shots but he still needs to be technically sound and by most accounts, that’s something that still needs a lot of work.  If he’s a platoon player, he can still have a long and productive career but is a platoon goalie worth a first-rounder?  I don’t think it is.  I wouldn’t be shocked if someone picks him in the first round but I’m not convinced that it’s a good idea.  In your scenario, I like the idea of trading up for Ethan Gauthier more than I do for Hrabal.  If Hrabal is there at 35, grab him then.

As for Augustine, I think he might be the better goalie of the two but while Hrabal’s size has sent his stock soaring, Augustine’s size has lowered him in the rankings.  He’s more of a technically-sound netminder and in a structured system, I think he can do quite well, at least as a platoon option.  Chicago is anything but structured right now but any goalie being taken is going to be four years or more away from being NHL-ready.  I’m betting that by then, the Blackhawks’ defense will be much better than it is now.

As for the philosophical idea of never having enough good goalies, I tend to agree if a team is trending toward a platoon as many are.  The value in that approach is saving money relative to having a true starter and a backup but it also means that you need to have a few netminders in the system.  As soon as one of those platoon pieces gets too expensive, the next in-house option needs to be ready for this to work as planned.

Generally speaking, there are only around 20 goalies that are picked in a typical draft year.  With more teams going to a platoon system, that number should be higher.  We’ll find out soon enough if that trend continues or if teams get more aggressive in getting netminders into their prospect pools.

random comment guy: I would like to piggyback off this, with the Hawks needing to reach the cap floor (roughly $16M or so), what teams will be calling to get high-salary players off their roster? I assume the Hawks will want 1-2 year contracts as it will fit their timeline. Also, do you feel that the return should be more draft picks or prospects/players?

There are a few groups of teams in the category of needing to move money.  There are those that have a high-priced contract for an underachieving player that are just looking to get out of the deal.  Think the Islanders and Josh Bailey.  There are those that wouldn’t mind offloading an LTIR-bound contract such as the Maple Leafs and Jake Muzzin.  Then there are teams that don’t want to move a player but whose cap situations are going to force their hand.  Boston and to a lesser extent Edmonton are among those.  Vancouver is sort of here as well although they don’t have to make a move, they just might prefer to.

I agree that Chicago – or any team acting as a clearinghouse – will be looking for short-term contracts.  Why take on a long-term agreement that could be problematic down the road if it can be avoided?  Sure, there could be more futures coming their way as compensation but there’s a limit to how much a team is going to pay to offload an unwanted contract and it probably won’t be enough to justify a long-term acquisition.

I’d put the Blackhawks in a spot where they should be targeting prospects.  They’re not ready to push for a playoff spot yet, even with Connor Bedard giving them a big boost offensively.  They’ve just gutted too much of the core to turn it around in a year.  But getting more draft picks that are years away from playing doesn’t make sense either.  The sweet spot for them should be drafted players between 19 and 22 (give or take a year) that are on the cusp of being ready.  Those will be the core pieces that align with Bedard’s timeline and part of the core that eventually helps lead them back into contention.  A year or two from now when it’s time to flip the switch, then go after the win-now players who will then be augmented by this prospect core.

M34: Waaaay too early predictions. Two or three teams from each conference’s playoff picture, that won’t make the playoffs next year. And who takes their spots?

The next couple of weeks could make me look silly on this but here goes nothing.

East: Even with Alex DeBrincat likely to be moved, the Senators can still do some damage next season.  A full season from Josh Norris will help.  I think they’re going to get a goalie.  And with the cap space they free up from a DeBrincat swap, they’re likely to add a piece or two of note in free agency or by taking on a player in a trade.  I also expect the Penguins to find a way to get back in.  They have some cap flexibility this summer and while they have a few holes to fill with that money, I think they’ll be able to add a piece or two to help get them over the hump for a Wild Card position.  It wouldn’t shock me to see Buffalo get in there as well as their roster continues to improve and likely has a move or two to be made in the coming weeks.

In terms of who misses out, the Panthers come to mind.  I had this same concern with Boston last summer (and boy, was I wrong there) but I figured their injuries would cause them to struggle out of the gate and even though they’d be a playoff-caliber team, they’d have too much of a hill to climb by the time the team got healthy.  I could see this happening with Florida.  I’ll say the Islanders also just miss out.  Their desired style of play is good for keeping things close but they still lack an above-average attack and their back end could be weakened if Scott Mayfield can’t be retained.  They’ll be competitive but just miss out.  If Boston really has to blow things up, it wouldn’t shock me if they just missed out.  It also wouldn’t shock me if Tampa Bay, bereft of even more depth next season, gets bit by the injury bug and with a weaker roster, ultimately comes up short.

West: I have one team that I have a bit of confidence in that could get in and that’s Vancouver.  Thatcher Demko should be better.  Their offense is already strong.  I don’t think they’re going to leave their back end as is.  On paper, that roster should be a playoff-caliber group.  Calgary is going to be forced to sell, Nashville might be bottoming out, Arizona and Chicago should be better but not playoff-ready and Anaheim and San Jose aren’t close.  I guess St. Louis is my second team by default since I have to pick at least two but let’s just say I’m not typing this with much conviction.

Winnipeg is the logical team to be replaced as it sure feels like they, too, are heading for at least some sort of step back.  It’d be tough to move that much of their core and improve.  And if I have to pick a team for St. Louis to knock out, I guess it’d be Seattle.  There’s a fine line to navigate for teams built like they are.  When it works, they can be a handful but if a couple of players take a step back offensively, that could be the difference, especially with their question marks between the pipes.

PyramidHeadcrab: So what’s the deal with Sergei Bobrovsky? Every player has ups and downs, but this guy seems to swing wildly from Vezina caliber to $10MM paperweight. Has any other goalie in NHL history been so wildly inconsistent? And what might you surmise the reasoning behind it is? Injury? Personality? Poor coaching?

There’s a 33-point gap between Bobrovsky’s best year and worst in terms of save percentage.  That’s definitely on the high side.  My first instinct when I saw the comparables question was Ilya Bryzgalov but as erratic as he was, the gap in the prime of his career wasn’t anywhere close.  Tim Thomas also has a 33-point difference but I wouldn’t put him on the same scale of wild inconsistency.  Mike Smith went from .899 one year to .930 and then within a few years, was down to .904.  Objectively speaking, there’s probably someone whose year-to-year volatility is comparable to Bobrovsky but one doesn’t come to mind right away.  And even so, Bobrovsky’s game-to-game and even period-to-period variances still could make him unique.

He has had enough goalie coaches over his career that it’s probably not that.  I don’t think it’s injury-related either.  I think it’s a confidence thing.  Some players rattle easy and he might be one of them; a bad goal bugs him and eventually it nosedives into another bad one, then another, etc.  On the flip side, a few big saves beget a few more big saves and then he gets on a roll.  Goaltending is just a weird position and there isn’t necessarily a lot of predictability involved other than to say there shouldn’t be much in the way of predictability.  This JFresh article from 2020 (Bobrovsky’s first season with Florida) better describes the volatility of the position.  Bobrovsky manages to take that to a whole other level.

The Duke: Crystal Ball – Goaltenders Edition: Where do Gibson, Saros, UPL, and Hill play next season – and how successful will each be?

John Gibson – I guess the ball doesn’t get to say Anaheim anymore, does it?  Let’s go with Pittsburgh with the Ducks retaining a small percentage of the deal to get the net cost closer to $5.5MM.  Playing behind a better team with playoff aspirations, he adds 13 points to his save percentage of .899, giving the Penguins a net gain on their team save percentage and that’s enough of a difference to get them a few more wins in the standings.

Juuse Saros – Nashville is moving a lot of players but this is one of those cases where they’re not going to get a max return if they move him now.  Not with Connor Hellebuyck out there; there are only a handful of teams that will be willing to pay up for a true starter.  He might not finish the season there but he should start it there.  With a weaker group in front of him, he loses a few points off the .919 SV% he put up last season.  That’s still well above average but it probably won’t be enough to get a bunch of wins unless they wind up buying big after selling big.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – There’s a definite case to be made for Buffalo to add a goaltender and if they do, Luukkonen is probably going elsewhere.  But the ball sees them investigating the market and then deciding to go with Luukkonen and Levi to start, believing that if they need to make an in-season move to get a stabilizer between the pipes, they’ll be able to do so.  After putting up an .891 SV% this past season, Luukkonen winds up closer to the NHL average (which should be somewhere in the .905 range).

Adin Hill – Staying in Vegas seems like the most probable scenario, especially since it appears that he’s nearing an extension.  With a heavier workload than he’s used to having during the regular season, Hill’s SV% dips a few points from .915 to .911.

Red Wings: Panthers should have some cap space this summer. If they add one piece, should they target Bertuzzi or Orlov?

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