PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago and their goaltending, way-too-early predictions for new playoff teams next season, Sergei Bobrovsky’s volatility, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbags.

Unclemike1526: The Blackhawks have Mrazek and Soderblom-Stauber for this year. We’re stuck with Mrazek. So Commesso, and maybe Basse in the system. I think the Hawks should draft Hrabal, however they need to. I saw one mock draft saying the Hawks would draft Trey Augustine in the second round. What is your opinion of Hrabal and Augustine? I think the Hawks stay put at 1 and 19. Then they take their high second-round pick and package it with a player or more picks to get back into the late 1st round and take Hrabal or if he’s gone, Gauthier. I think that would be a great scenario for the Hawks. I think you can never have enough good goalies. Thoughts?

I like Michael Hrabal but it feels to me like his stock is soaring a bit too high right now.  Yes, he’s big and big is good for a goalie but I’m not convinced he’s a 1A starter down the road.  He’s raw and rangy and those players don’t always pan out.  Size allows him to get to more shots but he still needs to be technically sound and by most accounts, that’s something that still needs a lot of work.  If he’s a platoon player, he can still have a long and productive career but is a platoon goalie worth a first-rounder?  I don’t think it is.  I wouldn’t be shocked if someone picks him in the first round but I’m not convinced that it’s a good idea.  In your scenario, I like the idea of trading up for Ethan Gauthier more than I do for Hrabal.  If Hrabal is there at 35, grab him then.

As for Augustine, I think he might be the better goalie of the two but while Hrabal’s size has sent his stock soaring, Augustine’s size has lowered him in the rankings.  He’s more of a technically-sound netminder and in a structured system, I think he can do quite well, at least as a platoon option.  Chicago is anything but structured right now but any goalie being taken is going to be four years or more away from being NHL-ready.  I’m betting that by then, the Blackhawks’ defense will be much better than it is now.

As for the philosophical idea of never having enough good goalies, I tend to agree if a team is trending toward a platoon as many are.  The value in that approach is saving money relative to having a true starter and a backup but it also means that you need to have a few netminders in the system.  As soon as one of those platoon pieces gets too expensive, the next in-house option needs to be ready for this to work as planned.

Generally speaking, there are only around 20 goalies that are picked in a typical draft year.  With more teams going to a platoon system, that number should be higher.  We’ll find out soon enough if that trend continues or if teams get more aggressive in getting netminders into their prospect pools.

random comment guy: I would like to piggyback off this, with the Hawks needing to reach the cap floor (roughly $16M or so), what teams will be calling to get high-salary players off their roster? I assume the Hawks will want 1-2 year contracts as it will fit their timeline. Also, do you feel that the return should be more draft picks or prospects/players?

There are a few groups of teams in the category of needing to move money.  There are those that have a high-priced contract for an underachieving player that are just looking to get out of the deal.  Think the Islanders and Josh Bailey.  There are those that wouldn’t mind offloading an LTIR-bound contract such as the Maple Leafs and Jake Muzzin.  Then there are teams that don’t want to move a player but whose cap situations are going to force their hand.  Boston and to a lesser extent Edmonton are among those.  Vancouver is sort of here as well although they don’t have to make a move, they just might prefer to.

I agree that Chicago – or any team acting as a clearinghouse – will be looking for short-term contracts.  Why take on a long-term agreement that could be problematic down the road if it can be avoided?  Sure, there could be more futures coming their way as compensation but there’s a limit to how much a team is going to pay to offload an unwanted contract and it probably won’t be enough to justify a long-term acquisition.

I’d put the Blackhawks in a spot where they should be targeting prospects.  They’re not ready to push for a playoff spot yet, even with Connor Bedard giving them a big boost offensively.  They’ve just gutted too much of the core to turn it around in a year.  But getting more draft picks that are years away from playing doesn’t make sense either.  The sweet spot for them should be drafted players between 19 and 22 (give or take a year) that are on the cusp of being ready.  Those will be the core pieces that align with Bedard’s timeline and part of the core that eventually helps lead them back into contention.  A year or two from now when it’s time to flip the switch, then go after the win-now players who will then be augmented by this prospect core.

M34: Waaaay too early predictions. Two or three teams from each conference’s playoff picture, that won’t make the playoffs next year. And who takes their spots?

The next couple of weeks could make me look silly on this but here goes nothing.

East: Even with Alex DeBrincat likely to be moved, the Senators can still do some damage next season.  A full season from Josh Norris will help.  I think they’re going to get a goalie.  And with the cap space they free up from a DeBrincat swap, they’re likely to add a piece or two of note in free agency or by taking on a player in a trade.  I also expect the Penguins to find a way to get back in.  They have some cap flexibility this summer and while they have a few holes to fill with that money, I think they’ll be able to add a piece or two to help get them over the hump for a Wild Card position.  It wouldn’t shock me to see Buffalo get in there as well as their roster continues to improve and likely has a move or two to be made in the coming weeks.

In terms of who misses out, the Panthers come to mind.  I had this same concern with Boston last summer (and boy, was I wrong there) but I figured their injuries would cause them to struggle out of the gate and even though they’d be a playoff-caliber team, they’d have too much of a hill to climb by the time the team got healthy.  I could see this happening with Florida.  I’ll say the Islanders also just miss out.  Their desired style of play is good for keeping things close but they still lack an above-average attack and their back end could be weakened if Scott Mayfield can’t be retained.  They’ll be competitive but just miss out.  If Boston really has to blow things up, it wouldn’t shock me if they just missed out.  It also wouldn’t shock me if Tampa Bay, bereft of even more depth next season, gets bit by the injury bug and with a weaker roster, ultimately comes up short.

West: I have one team that I have a bit of confidence in that could get in and that’s Vancouver.  Thatcher Demko should be better.  Their offense is already strong.  I don’t think they’re going to leave their back end as is.  On paper, that roster should be a playoff-caliber group.  Calgary is going to be forced to sell, Nashville might be bottoming out, Arizona and Chicago should be better but not playoff-ready and Anaheim and San Jose aren’t close.  I guess St. Louis is my second team by default since I have to pick at least two but let’s just say I’m not typing this with much conviction.

Winnipeg is the logical team to be replaced as it sure feels like they, too, are heading for at least some sort of step back.  It’d be tough to move that much of their core and improve.  And if I have to pick a team for St. Louis to knock out, I guess it’d be Seattle.  There’s a fine line to navigate for teams built like they are.  When it works, they can be a handful but if a couple of players take a step back offensively, that could be the difference, especially with their question marks between the pipes.

PyramidHeadcrab: So what’s the deal with Sergei Bobrovsky? Every player has ups and downs, but this guy seems to swing wildly from Vezina caliber to $10MM paperweight. Has any other goalie in NHL history been so wildly inconsistent? And what might you surmise the reasoning behind it is? Injury? Personality? Poor coaching?

There’s a 33-point gap between Bobrovsky’s best year and worst in terms of save percentage.  That’s definitely on the high side.  My first instinct when I saw the comparables question was Ilya Bryzgalov but as erratic as he was, the gap in the prime of his career wasn’t anywhere close.  Tim Thomas also has a 33-point difference but I wouldn’t put him on the same scale of wild inconsistency.  Mike Smith went from .899 one year to .930 and then within a few years, was down to .904.  Objectively speaking, there’s probably someone whose year-to-year volatility is comparable to Bobrovsky but one doesn’t come to mind right away.  And even so, Bobrovsky’s game-to-game and even period-to-period variances still could make him unique.

He has had enough goalie coaches over his career that it’s probably not that.  I don’t think it’s injury-related either.  I think it’s a confidence thing.  Some players rattle easy and he might be one of them; a bad goal bugs him and eventually it nosedives into another bad one, then another, etc.  On the flip side, a few big saves beget a few more big saves and then he gets on a roll.  Goaltending is just a weird position and there isn’t necessarily a lot of predictability involved other than to say there shouldn’t be much in the way of predictability.  This JFresh article from 2020 (Bobrovsky’s first season with Florida) better describes the volatility of the position.  Bobrovsky manages to take that to a whole other level.

The Duke: Crystal Ball – Goaltenders Edition: Where do Gibson, Saros, UPL, and Hill play next season – and how successful will each be?

John Gibson – I guess the ball doesn’t get to say Anaheim anymore, does it?  Let’s go with Pittsburgh with the Ducks retaining a small percentage of the deal to get the net cost closer to $5.5MM.  Playing behind a better team with playoff aspirations, he adds 13 points to his save percentage of .899, giving the Penguins a net gain on their team save percentage and that’s enough of a difference to get them a few more wins in the standings.

Juuse Saros – Nashville is moving a lot of players but this is one of those cases where they’re not going to get a max return if they move him now.  Not with Connor Hellebuyck out there; there are only a handful of teams that will be willing to pay up for a true starter.  He might not finish the season there but he should start it there.  With a weaker group in front of him, he loses a few points off the .919 SV% he put up last season.  That’s still well above average but it probably won’t be enough to get a bunch of wins unless they wind up buying big after selling big.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – There’s a definite case to be made for Buffalo to add a goaltender and if they do, Luukkonen is probably going elsewhere.  But the ball sees them investigating the market and then deciding to go with Luukkonen and Levi to start, believing that if they need to make an in-season move to get a stabilizer between the pipes, they’ll be able to do so.  After putting up an .891 SV% this past season, Luukkonen winds up closer to the NHL average (which should be somewhere in the .905 range).

Adin Hill – Staying in Vegas seems like the most probable scenario, especially since it appears that he’s nearing an extension.  With a heavier workload than he’s used to having during the regular season, Hill’s SV% dips a few points from .915 to .911.

Red Wings: Panthers should have some cap space this summer. If they add one piece, should they target Bertuzzi or Orlov?

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion about the impending spending frenzy, Roman Josi’s future in Nashville, next week’s draft, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.  We also have one more to run from the most recent call for questions so it might be in there too.

jason830: Is Clayton Keller an option for the Blackhawks to trade for if he is available? Also, would pick 19 plus some prospects entice the Coyotes to trade him?

It’s fair to wonder if Arizona might be inclined to move Keller.  GM Bill Armstrong has said previously that he envisions the team being about halfway through the rebuild.  In other words, they’re a few years away from trying to contend.  Keller has five years left on his contract so three more non-playoff seasons would mean they’d be holding onto him for two years of hopeful contention.  Logically, you could sway me on moving him for someone that better fits their timeline.

That said, they wouldn’t be looking for draft picks to trade for him.  If they were, I expect they’d be aiming considerably higher.  Remember the Alex DeBrincat move from the draft last year?  I fully expect they’d be asking for more than that if they were moving Keller.

Chicago isn’t at the point yet where it’s time for them to start moving draft picks and trying to contend.  That’s the time for them to go after someone like Keller.  Arizona, meanwhile, is probably looking for players more than picks so I don’t think there’s a mutual fit for a trade.

NSco1996: Do you think the NHL will address the LTIR/No Salary Cap loophole to add better quality/more expensive depth at the deadline for the future playoffs? As a Blackhawks fan, it more notably seemed to have started with them in 2015 with Kane, 2021 Kucherov and Stamkos, 2023 Mark Stone. All three teams added good quality depth that they otherwise couldn’t afford with their high-price star not counting against the cap.

First, this isn’t just an NHL decision.  The salary cap and the rules that pertain to it are collectively bargained between the league and the NHLPA so any changes would need joint approval.  At first glance, I don’t think this a topic that’s going to be remotely near the top of the list for new Executive Director Marty Walsh to look at.  Frankly, I don’t think they’re upset about the loophole either as it allows players to go to a Cup contender that wouldn’t be able to otherwise which some would be quite happy about.

I also don’t think there’s much of an appetite from the teams to do something about it.  Yes, it’s a tiny loophole (which isn’t so small now as it has been exploited enough that you can drive an 18-wheeler through it) but at a time when many teams are cap-strapped, they’re probably not going to want to close something that they might need to rely on depending how their injury situation goes.  So if the league isn’t getting pushed to look at it and the NHLPA isn’t inclined to change it, it’s not going to get addressed.

For fun, though, let’s say they’re open to the idea.  How do you do it?  Do you put a rule in that says if a player is on LTIR after the trade deadline, they have to miss a certain number of playoff games?  That might seem like the easiest way to do it but what about the player who legitimately suffers a two-month injury right before the trade deadline, lining them up for a first-round return?  Such a rule might help eliminate some of the more overt exploitation but it might punish the teams who are legitimately in that situation with a valid injury timeline that matches the start of the postseason.  That probably isn’t going to get the support from NHL teams at the least.  As far as fixing it goes, it’s easier said than done.

WilfPaiement: Why do GMs continue to be their own worst enemy when it comes to a player’s worth? The latest example would potentially be Tyler Bertuzzi who reportedly is looking for term and $7 million a season.  His resume thus far tells me he would be 3 at 3 at best.  Anything after that is just plain dumb!!!!! Don Waddell recently stated he’s not against bringing back Pacioretty, just ridiculous. What kind of bad money will they throw at Toews and Kane?

This is pretty commonplace around professional sports.  Managers want to improve their team and when you have the same teams bidding for the same impact players, dumb moves are going to happen.  Add that to the expectation of a higher salary cap in the near future and it’s a guarantee that there are bad signings on their way next weekend.

As for Bertuzzi, your valuation of him would actually represent a cut in pay compared to what he has made in the past three seasons.  That’s probably not going to happen.  Yes, injuries are a valid concern and that will probably prevent him from getting what he’s asking.  But he’s asking for a contract that’s high enough to justify him not seeing what’s on the open market (where he’ll be one of the more sought-after players, no less).  He’s not taking himself off the free agent list for an underpayment; he might not even do it for a fair-market deal.  I don’t think there’s any chance he gets $7MM and I’m skeptical that he gets max term.  But right now, why not see if Boston is willing to play ball on one of those ends?  There isn’t much risk to doing so.

I have no problem with Waddell saying he’d be open to bringing back Max Pacioretty.  He didn’t say he’s open to bringing him back at $7MM again, just that they won’t close the door.  If Pacioretty winds up signing a one-year, bonus-laden contract, Carolina is a team that makes a lot of sense for him with the short-term cap space they have before so many regulars are up heading into 2023-24.  For the right price, that might be worth pursuing.

I don’t expect Toews to get a big-ticket contract.  If he decides to play next season, I think it will be a situational choice, one that allows him to play closer to home or try to chase one more Stanley Cup.  Those situations lend themselves toward a cheaper contract.  As for Kane, we’re in the middle of finalizing our upcoming Top 50 UFA list and while I won’t spoil the final number, I suspect you’ll find it above the value you think he should get.

GBear: If the Preds are going in a rebuild phase, doesn’t it make sense to move Josi? He’ll be on the downside of his career once the team becomes above average again, so why waste his prime years in a rebuild when you could get a huge return for him now?

Not every rebuild has to be a strip-it-down one with an extended buildup after that.  Going the route of trading Roman Josi would be the Predators tearing it down and starting a long-term rebuild.  Is that really what Barry Trotz signed up for when he takes over as GM next weekend?  I don’t know about that.  I’m not even certain that today’s trade is a sign in that direction; they might just be opening up flexibility to make a splash on the trade front at their hometown draft.

I’m also not convinced that the return would be as high as you might think it would be.  Look at San Jose and Erik Karlsson.  They’re the same age (born one day apart), are the top-scoring blueliners from the last two seasons, and are on long-term contracts.  And yet, what is the scuttlebutt around Karlsson?  To move him, the Sharks will need to retain a significant chunk of the deal and probably settle for an underwhelming return.

Yes, Karlsson makes roughly $2.5MM more but Josi has one more year left on his contract which doesn’t help his trade value.  If Nashville was going to consider seriously moving him, they’d be asked to retain a sizable chunk.  Even at $2MM per, that’s $10MM they’re paying for him not to play for the Preds.  Are they going to want to do that and tie up another retention slot long-term?  I’m not sure about that.  Even if they were, I think they’d get better offers than San Jose is for Karlsson but this is not a cap environment to move big money for big value.

If you’re moving big-ticket contracts right now, the cap space is a big part of the return, likely bigger than the asset value you’re getting back.  And if that’s all you’re going to get for Josi, holding onto him might be the smarter play.  There are only so many teams that can afford to be in on Karlsson and when goes, that list will get even smaller.  Accordingly, this might not be the best spot to move him.

Schwa: With speculation of Konecny being moved by Flyers, and it seeming like they are willing to retain salary, could you see the Rangers making an offer here/the teams working out an in-division move? Konecny plays a scrappy two-way game and is a solidified top-6 RW. Seems to fit Rangers’ needs if he can be had for the right price. 1st and a prospect for Konecny with 30% retained by PHI? Thanks!

I don’t think Philadelphia is in a spot to turn down better offers just to avoid moving him to a division rival, especially if they’re looking to bottom out for the remaining term of Travis Konecny’s contract.  If the Rangers were to make an offer and it was the best one, they’d do it.

Having said that, I’m not sure that New York would make a legitimate offer for him.  They have around $11.7MM to work with right now, per CapFriendly.  With that, they need to re-sign Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller, sign a backup goalie, and probably another defenseman and at least three more forwards.  As it is, they probably need to try to offload Barclay Goodrow just to accomplish that, let alone add Konecny, even at a reduced rate.  (And no, putting Goodrow into the trade won’t solve that problem as the Rangers would need to incentivize the Flyers to take that deal on.)

As for your proposal, it depends on the prospect.  From Philadelphia’s perspective, if they’re retaining 30% for two years, it better be an ‘A’ player, one of New York’s best.  Otherwise, they’re probably going to pass on an offer like that in search of a stronger one.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include finding a way for Vegas to try to re-sign Ivan Barbashev, goalies to watch for in the upcoming draft, and much more.  With so many questions being submitted (thanks, as always, for sending them in), we’ll run two more mailbags from our recent callout.  They’ll be run between now and the end of next weekend so if your question doesn’t appear here, be sure to check those ones when they come out.

Emoney123: Petersen making $5MM as a backup to Hart’s $3MM? Two #1 picks this year and next with Gauthier, Brink, Foerster hopefully coming up and a relatively young roster, are brighter days right around the corner? Flyers back in the Playoffs next season!

I’m intrigued to see if Cal Petersen gets a real shot to be Carter Hart’s backup or if they’ll treat him as a sunk cost and bury him in Lehigh Valley.  I think he can be a lot better than he was this past season and if they are able to get him performing at the NHL level next season, perhaps there’s a chance to salvage a bit of value from him in 2024-25.

Are brighter days ahead?  Sure.  Their prospect pool is improving and as you noted, they’re getting two more first-rounders in a week and a half that’s going to make it stronger.  If they choose correctly with those selections, they could have a good foundation to work off of in a few years.

But making the playoffs next season feels like a bit of a pipe dream.  They just moved one of their better defensemen in Ivan Provorov for futures.  By all accounts, Travis Konecny is in play, their leading scorer.  Kevin Hayes seems like a strong trade candidate.  Hart has been drawing interest.  These are not statements that should be associated with a team looking to make the playoffs next season.  These are statements about a team that’s looking to finish at or near the bottom of the standings.

jchancel: Given the NY Rangers’ cap issues, what are the alternatives? Give up Goodrow, Mikkola, Motte. Keeping one of Kane or Tarasenko?

Promote Othmann and Cullye? Does that alleviate some of the problem?

I mentioned the importance of moving Barclay Goodrow in their recent Offseason Checklist.  It’s not that he’s a bad player, he’s just a luxury they can no longer afford at just over $3.64MM for the next four seasons.  They have around $11.7MM in cap space per CapFriendly but more than half of that is going to be allocated to re-signing Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller.  That leaves enough to sign a bunch of players for close to the minimum to round out the roster but that is also going to result in a significant talent drain.

Among the UFAs, I expect Niko Mikkola will go elsewhere to a team that will be able to afford him.  I’m not certain Tyler Motte walks though.  His market wasn’t great last summer which frankly surprised me.  His performance this past season wasn’t significantly better either so it stands to reason his market won’t be the strongest this time either.  If that’s the case, would he accept a multi-year deal around the $1MM range, getting some stability after being on the move a lot in recent years?  I think New York could find a way to make that work.  I’d be stunned if either of Patrick Kane or Vladimir Tarasenko return unless a significant contract is on the way out.

I do expect both Brennan Othmann and William Cullye to see regular action next season.  Othmann had a nice playoff and Memorial Cup run and plays a rugged style that makes him work in the bottom six to start, allowing him to potentially ease into a more important role over time.  Cullye had a fine rookie year in Hartford and also fits nicely into a bottom six group that I anticipate will have a physical edge to it.  Perhaps they’re not full-timers (especially if GM Chris Drury wants them to see some time in scoring roles) but they’ll be factors on the roster next season.

@HolgerStolzen1: Hey Brian,

I’m trying to figure out a way for the Golden Knights to re-sign Ivan Barbashev in the off-season, but not sure it’s possible. I’m already going with the assumption that they re-sign Adin Hill and find a way to move out Lehner. Any chance we can bring back Barbashev?

Hey Holger, always nice to hear from a former PHR teammate.

Let’s dig into those assumptions first.  Adin Hill’s strong playoff run is going to earn him a nice raise.  Let’s peg him at $4MM.  I’m not as optimistic as you are that they’ll find a way to move Robin Lehner but I’ll play along.  Him coming off the books saves them $5MM which gives them a little over $4MM in cap room, per CapFriendly’s numbers.  That’s not going to be enough to keep Ivan Barbashev.

However, there are two options where they can trim payroll.  The first is trying to incentivize a team to take on Alec Martinez’s contract.  The 35-year-old can still play but his days as a core blueliner are probably done.  His trade protection dips to eight teams on July 1st so there might be a move to be made on that front.  That would more than free up enough cap space to re-sign Barbashev and pending RFA Brett Howden between his $5MM and their existing space.  That’s Plan A.

Plan B might come as a bit of a surprise but I’d kick the tires on the trade market for Nicolas Roy.  $3MM for a third center isn’t bad by any stretch but it is a luxury in this cap environment.  Some teams can afford it and with the market for middlemen not being great, I think Vegas would get a good return in a trade.  Take half of that money added to their cap room and that might get Barbashev done.  The other half goes to Howden with Ben Hutton being waived in training camp to make up the rest of Howden’s money.  Kaedan Korzcak then near-daily appearances on this site in shuffles to and from Henderson to bank some cap space and give them a bit of in-season room.  They’d be carrying a minimum-sized roster, however, though they’re certainly used to that.

So, yeah, I think there’s a chance they can bring him back and the fact they can offer an eighth year certainly helps on that front.  I’m not sure I’d predict that particular outcome but there’s a pathway to do it.

aka.nda: Semi-related.. thinking about Logan Thompson.. // Brossoit.. Hill. What’s Vegas gonna do with their goalie situation?

Let’s do the easy ones first.  Logan Thompson stays.  He’s on a contract that’s below the league minimum AAV making him arguably the best bargain contract for any NHL goalie next season.  They’re not moving him.  As for Laurent Brossoit, I don’t think he comes back.  Has he really helped his value since joining them two years ago?  I don’t think so.  There are teams that will view him more as a third-string option and while he might get a one-way deal backing up somewhere, I think Vegas needs someone more capable of playing a heavier workload.

Let’s talk about the one not on this list, Lehner.  If he’s going to be ruled healthy to play next season, I think he stays in Vegas and that his trade market would be next to non-existent.  Generally speaking, if a goalie misses the entire year and is suddenly declared healthy, I think teams are going to react one way – ‘prove it’.  To have trade value, he needs to play and if he’s on their active roster, there’s no possible way that they can afford to bring Hill back.  At that point, you’re pivoting to an above-average third-stringer and paying him $1MM to start in Henderson and be available in case Lehner isn’t healthy.

But if Lehner can’t recover and is heading for LTIR, then I suspect the Golden Knights will take a serious run at trying to keep Hill.  I mentioned $4MM as a rough price point in the previous question so I’ll stick with that here.  Maybe three years at that cost gets it done?  With just 101 regular season games under his belt, he doesn’t have a long-term track record that will push him into true number one money and that deal feels like a reasonable one for both sides.  It would give Hill some stability while allowing Vegas to keep their goalie costs in check knowing that Chandler Stephenson is heading for a big-ticket deal next summer while Thompson will need a new contract as well.

SkidRowe: What could the Bruins get for Linus Ullmark? A soon to be 30 yo Vezina trophy winner signed for 2 more years at a reasonable $5 million?

The additions of Connor Hellebuyck and even John Gibson to the trade market don’t help Boston here if this is the route they’re going to go.  Ullmark had a great year, no question and is absolutely well-deserving of the Vezina should he get it as expected.  But will teams call his performance a byproduct of their system?  If so, he won’t be viewed as highly.

Will teams view Ullmark as a top-ten goalie in their system?  I’m not certain they will and the offers will be lower accordingly.  Could they get a first-round pick for him?  Possibly, but it would be at the back of the first round.  Not a lot of netminders have fetched first-round picks recently.  They’d probably need to take a goalie back which would limit the cap savings.  Maybe there’s a prospect involved but it wouldn’t be an ‘A’ player.

In a follow-up comment, you noted you wouldn’t move him unless you were getting a pair of first-rounders or a young top-six center.  As well as Ullmark played this season, I don’t think he gets that.  I don’t think Jeremy Swayman would yield a pair of first-rounders either (and I feel he’d have the higher trade value being younger with more years of team control).  I don’t expect an extended Hellebuyck to bring that type of return and even though his cap hit will be higher, his track record would look better in the eyes of interested teams which might make him more sought-after than Ullmark.

I like the player and I like the contract.  But it has been a long time since a goalie has yielded a return that makes people go ‘wow’ in terms of the haul being significantly strong.  I don’t think Ullmark will buck that trend if he’s made available.

joebad34: Who are the next potential goalies coming into this year’s draft that may be targeted as a future starter?

Let’s get this out of the way first.  I’m not a particularly strong scout when it comes to watching skaters.  When it comes to goalies, it’s even worse.  Just keep that in mind as you read this answer.

I’m not sure there is a true number one goalie in this draft class.  By number one goalie, I mean a 50-plus game starter year after year that is the undisputed go-to guy in the playoffs.  But, frankly, how many of those are around nowadays?  As teams gravitate more toward platoons as cost-saving options, they will find value in those netminders.  And I think there are certainly a few of those platoon/1B players in this draft.

At the top, there’s Michael Hrabal, a very tall goalie, one element scouts really love in their netminders.  His stock has steadily been on the rise but I think his development path will be a bit slower than others on this list.  Adam Gajan is a re-entry player that hasn’t gone a traditional route but I really liked him at the World Juniors and I could see him having some pro success.  Trey Augustine is on the smaller side for a goalie (6’1) but based on how he has fared in the US NTDP, I see no reason to think he can’t succeed in the NHL.  Carson Bjarnason is probably the top option from Canada after a decent showing in his first season as a full-fledged starter.

Hrabal, Augustine, and Bjarnason should all go in the second round; I’ve seen some speculate that Hrabal could crack the late first round.  Gajan is a bit of a wild card given his second-time status but he should go fairly early among the goalies.  I’m curious to see where Scott Ratzlaff goes, he wound up as the backup in WHL Seattle this season behind Thomas Milic (a third-year eligible who’s also on the smaller side for a goalie) but I could see him being a value pick as Ratzlaff will take over as the starter next season on a team that’s likely to allow a lot of shots as a lot of their Memorial Cup roster will move on.  but I think he could be one of the better goalies from this class even though he’s not among the top few options on most lists.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some possible targets for Detroit this summer, what’s next for Ottawa, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbags.

gowings2008: Could Ryan O’Reilly be a realistic top 6C option for Detroit on a short 2-3-year deal?

This is a scenario I briefly talked about in a mailbag last month.  It makes a lot of sense on a few fronts.  First, the UFA market isn’t great, especially if the Boston veterans either re-sign with the Bruins or retire; it’d be stunning to see either of them go elsewhere.  With them out of the picture, O’Reilly is one of the top middlemen available on the open market.

Second, he fits the type of veteran that GM Steve Yzerman seems to like – players that I call bridge veterans.  These are short-term additions that provide a short-term improvement to the roster while allowing prospects more time in the minors to develop.  Throughout his tenure in Detroit, these have largely been the types of players that Yzerman has targeted.

The question is whether O’Reilly will accept a short-term agreement or if he uses the market to his advantage and can secure a longer-term pact.  At 32, it’s not unthinkable that he could get a five-year contract and if the bidding drives the deal to that length, Detroit would be wise to stay away.  O’Reilly fits for Detroit as long as it’s a short-term contract.  Otherwise, he shouldn’t get much consideration.

tigers22 2: Which players will be available for trade during the offseason that the Red Wings could look to acquire to put some more pucks in the net?

It’s a pretty long list, probably longer than I can get into here.  With a lot teams likely looking to get out of a contract or two, there could be some pretty good forwards made available at a discount.  That’s the market I’d be looking in which again ties in nicely with their bridge veteran approach.  Here are a few names to keep an eye on out of that group.

Brock Boeser (Vancouver) – While Boeser has made it known that he wants to stay, his contract is one that the Canucks would likely want to get out of.  He has two years left at $6.65MM and has four seasons of 20-plus goals under his belt while just coming up short of that this season.  Vancouver simply has to move someone out to free up money and if Detroit is willing to absorb that contract (and they certainly have the cap space to do so), then he’d be a nice buy-low add that would immediately bolster their winger depth.

Andrew Mangiapane (Calgary) – It’s unclear if new GM Craig Conroy will want to move Mangiapane but he has just one 20-goal year, a 35-tally effort in 2021-22.  Aside from that, he’s typically in the high teens.  That’s still a useful player but at $5.8MM, he’s an expensive one.  The Flames also need to clear out money and if they feel he’s more of an 18-goal player moving forward and not a 35-goal one, it wouldn’t be surprising if they look to move him.

Taylor Hall (Boston) – Hall’s in his early 30s now and isn’t the top liner he was in his prime.  However, he’s still a capable secondary scorer and had a strong showing in Boston’s first-round loss to Florida.  The Bruins need to create some cap flexibility and while Hall might not be their first choice to move, the two years at $6MM per season remaining on it means it’s something they might have to consider.

Anthony Mantha (Washington) – Why not?  Mantha showed some strong flashes with Detroit but hasn’t been able to bring that to the Capitals with any sort of consistency.  If they want to be active in free agency (perhaps trying to bring back Dmitry Orlov), they’re going to need some cap room.  Mantha’s on an expiring deal at $5.7MM and if could get back to his 20-goal form with the Red Wings, he’d be a worthwhile acquisition.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Edmonton – what do they do this offseason?

I don’t expect them to do a ton this summer.  They made a big swing at the deadline to bring in Mattias Ekholm and that was their big core move.  Now, this summer should be about some tweaks around the edges while trimming payroll to get cap-compliant.

On the back end, while they’d like to keep both Brett Kulak and Cody Ceci, I’m not sure they can afford to do so.  The two combine for a $6MM cap hit which is fine when you have cap flexibility but not so much when you need space.  With Evan Bouchard proving he’s ready for a top-four role, there’s room for one of those players but not so much both of them.  Philip Broberg is also in the mix for a full-time spot which could push one of Ceci or Kulak out.

Speaking of Bouchard, while they’d probably want to sign him to a long-term deal, that’s just not practical based on their current roster.  They’ll bridge him for two years and hope the anticipated increase to the salary cap will allow them to afford to sign him to a long-term contract at that time.

Up front, I could see them moving on from Kailer Yamamoto.  He’s someone I’m going to cover in more detail in a separate piece in the next week or so I won’t go into much detail here but that’s a salary slot they can’t really afford, especially if they want to re-sign pending UFA Nick Bjugstad who fit in nicely after being acquired.  Klim Kostin and Ryan McLeod will get short-term contracts to keep the AAV down.

If they can move out a contract or two by July 1st, it could give them a chance to go after a bottom-six forward or two that they like.  If not, they might be forced to do their shopping closer to training camp when players are looking for a soft landing spot with the hopes of bolstering their value for another crack at the market a year from now.  Edmonton would be very appealing for those players which could yield some good value additions if they’re patient.

Bradley B: Since the Predators became sellers at the deadline, and with a GM change coming, do you see them aiming for a rebuild/retool? Are they likely to try and move some more of their players this summer?

Rumors surround MIN defense prospect Calen Addison. Are there any similar prospects (hopefully centers) out there who need a change of scenery and seem like a close value swap?

Where will Connor Hellebuyck be playing next season?

Full disclosure, my track record of making accurate predictions with Nashville hasn’t been great so keep that in mind reading this answer.  With the state of their roster, I think they should take a step back for a year or two and continue moving out some veterans.  In terms of shooting for longer-term success and not just being a bubble team, that’s their best chance to do it.  But is rebuilding really in their DNA?  Barry Trotz was a win-now coach; is he really going to start his tenure as GM by diving head-first into a rebuild?  With the cap room they have, they can flip the switch and add a few quality veterans.  Add that to their core and they could very well be back in the playoffs next year.  They don’t typically walk away from that chance with regularity so I’m skeptical they’re going to start now.

I know the speculation is out there with Addison but that might be a move that they regret.  His value isn’t the greatest right now so I don’t think there are many promising young middlemen that they’d be able to get in return for him.  Maybe Joe Veleno if Detroit thinks he maxes out in his current role?  A move like that would yield a replacement for Filip Hronek at least.  I could see Carolina moving Jack Drury this summer and a swap of younger players would make sense for them so that could be another possibility.  If Wild GM Bill Guerin thinks highly of Liam Foudy, that could be another option but I think they’d be better off keeping Addison between those two.  Frankly, I think they’d be better off keeping him period.  The best is yet to come from him and Minnesota shouldn’t be rushing to move him as a result.

In yesterday’s mailbag, I talked about the possibility of Winnipeg giving this core one more partial year and seeing if they get a different outcome.  If that happens, then it’s possible that Hellebuyck stays.  But I’ll go a bit off the board and say Carolina.  Pyotr Kochetkov is their goalie of the future but that future isn’t 2023-24.  They’ve been doing fine with mid-tier goalies but those players don’t win too many games on their own.  Hellebuyck can and in the playoffs, we’ve seen the difference that a strong goalie can make.  This is a win-now core and Hellebuyck is definitely a win-now goalie.

jawman74: Where do you see the Senators going from here? Obviously, it seems as if their goal was to try and compete for the playoffs this season but they fell short. Do you think they run it back with this current team, try and retool, or something else? How do guys like DeBrincat or Chychrun fit into the mix? Who’s in net on opening night, is it Forsberg or Sogaard, or someone else? When is their contending window?

A lot of what happens next will be determined by new ownership.  If they maintain GM Pierre Dorion (and by extension, D.J. Smith), they’re going to try to keep building with this group or at least most of it.  If a change is made, then all bets are off.  That scenario is too hard to predict so let’s assume it’s the status quo moving forward.

I think Dorion’s extension is to run it back with this group.  Let’s not forget that with the exception of Claude Giroux, their core forwards are all 25 or younger.  That’s a group that has room to improve organically which should provide reason for optimism to stay the course.  Now, Alex DeBrincat can change that course to an extent.  If he doesn’t want to sign a long-term deal, Dorion might turn around and trade him and they’re probably not getting an equivalent scorer in return while there isn’t one like him available in free agency.  Losing him would hurt, no doubt, but even in that scenario, I still see them pushing for a playoff spot and trying to build this roster up.

Defensively, the addition of Jakob Chychrun gives them two top-pairing players and rounds out their top four nicely so I see him sticking around for sure.  They have decisions to make on some of their younger guys (Erik Brannstrom is arbitration-eligible while Lassi Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker are waiver-eligible) and I could see one of them being moved with a veteran like Travis Hamonic sticking around.  Most of the heavy lifting there is done, for now at least.

Ottawa needs a viable starting goalie.  Anton Forsberg isn’t a 1A and Mads Sogaard needs time in the minors.  That said, I don’t think they’re going to pursue one and instead, will look for another Cam Talbot-like acquisition.  Semyon Varlamov makes sense on paper; he’d get a chance to play a bit more while being on a team that should be on the rise.  Their opening night starter should be someone not currently in the organization, I’ll say that much.

As for their contending window, it might be now.  Chychrun has two years left on his below-market deal and with a higher cap at that time, he could cost what Thomas Chabot costs now ($8MM).  Can they afford another deal in that range on their books?  Giroux is up two years from now as well so that’s the soft closing point.  The good news is that their young core is good enough to keep them in it for a while but having moved out some good draft picks and prospects lately, they may not have the pieces to trade for another player like Chychrun down the road.  But if they can land an impact free agent in 2025 or 2026, that window could swing back open.

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