PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the increasing willingness to have a three-goalie system, how the Central Division could shake out this coming season, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag or watch for it in our final one from this set of questions.

Grocery stick: How do teams see the goalie situation right now? We’ve seen the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup with Hill, Brossoit, and Thompson. The Panthers also relied on three different goalies in different stages of the season, reaching the Final.

Are teams trying to re-create a three-goalie situation on purpose now? How does a #3 goalkeeper stay match ready if he is not waivers exempt? Do teams need “timely” injuries to make a three-goalie rotation work? And what teams could go for a three-goalie rotation this season?

I don’t think teams are necessarily aiming for a three-goalie rotation by design.  Vegas was forced into that with injuries while Florida got to that point with Spencer Knight needing to take a leave of absence (and Sergei Bobrovsky really struggling for a time).  Truly, neither of those teams really had a three-man rotation either; only two were healthy and/or available for the majority of the season.

You note the issue with keeping that third-stringer fresh which is why most teams don’t see it as a viable long-term option.  After a few weeks, they’re asking that goalie to take a conditioning assignment to the AHL to stay fresh.  But that can only be done twice in a season and not all players agree to the request.  If a team tries to play three goalies more evenly, no one will be happy with their playing time.  As you termed it, timely injuries is the way to really make it work.

I think what we’ve seen over the last couple of years is teams placing a higher level of importance on who their third-stringer is.  Now, it’s not just a long-time AHL veteran that’s content to come up and sit on the bench for a few weeks if someone goes down; teams are looking for someone that can come in and play.  I wouldn’t necessarily classify that as a true three-goalie situation though.

One team that I think will go that route is Carolina.  Pyotr Kochetkov is still waiver-exempt for one more year and I think the Hurricanes will try to give him a bunch of starts in the AHL and then spot him some NHL action when they have an open roster spot and want to give one of Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta a night off.  (Although, with their injury history, there may very well be other opportunities on top of that.)

If Philadelphia starts Samuel Ersson in the minors, they could be another team in that situation.  Maybe Dustin Wolf gets some spot starts here and there in Calgary and if Alex Stalock beats out Lukas Dostal in Anaheim, Dostal could still see some NHL appearances spotted in.  In each of these situations, it’s a waiver-exempt goalie that’s part of the future in that situation, not a proven veteran.  That’s where the three-goalie structure by design makes the most sense.

Nha Trang: Heh, it’s time for my annual question now: who’s the guy who comes from out of nowhere to be a serious impact player this season?

Well, last year’s pick didn’t go quite as well as my one from the year before (Tage Thompson) although Taylor Raddysh hit 20 goals with Chicago in 2022-23 which isn’t bad for someone who had a sparing role with Tampa Bay for most of 2021-22.

Last year, I put in a self-imposed criterion that a player couldn’t be in the top 300 in scoring.  Otherwise, that player wouldn’t exactly be coming out of nowhere.  That takes some viable candidates off the table and certainly increases the level of difficulty of this question.

I’m going to go with Boston’s Morgan Geekie.  Here’s a player that only has 22 career goals to his name over parts of four NHL seasons although only two of those have been in a regular role.  Both of those campaigns were with Seattle where he spent a lot of time on the fourth line.  That shouldn’t be the case in Boston.

Due to the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, the Bruins don’t exactly have great depth down the middle.  At the moment, Geekie projects as their third-line center which is already a step up.  He was a scorer in the WHL.  He has 93 points in 130 AHL games which isn’t too shabby by any stretch.  I could see him making a push for 20 goals next season which would be great production from someone in the bottom six that has yet to reach the double-digit mark in a single season.  Couple that with him generally being on the happy side of 50% at the faceoff dot and him showing last year that he can cover some time on the penalty kill and Geekie could wind up being a pretty impactful player for Boston.

If you want a couple of real longshot wild cards, I’ll suggest San Jose’s Jacob Peterson and Arizona’s Michael Carcone.  Peterson didn’t look out of place in a top-six role with the Sharks down the stretch after spending most of the year in the minors.  If he makes the team in that role, he could surprise.  Carcone, meanwhile, has lit it up in the AHL but a strong showing at the Worlds with Canada earned him a two-year, one-way deal.  I’m not sure he’s going to score enough to really qualify as a good answer for this question but he could become a capable bottom-six winger at the age of 27 and many years in the minors.

Weasel 3: Honest evaluation of PLD’s chances providing any surplus value on his extension please.

In the short term, I don’t see much of a window for that to happen.  He’s likely to be on the second line for a year or two and those players generally don’t produce enough to provide surplus value on a contract worth $8.5MM per season.  That isn’t to say he won’t have an impact – Dubois definitely will – but I don’t think anyone will be calling his deal a bargain.

Longer term, however, I can see a pathway to surplus value.  If he can up his production to a point per game level while asserting himself more physically, now we’re talking about a center in or around the top 20 at his position with an element that few other middlemen provide.  He’d be a power forward getting paid market value, not the typical premium that power forwards get.  In that sense, then, he’d be providing some surplus value.

The other option to getting positive value on Dubois’ contract is if the Upper Limit really starts to rise.  If we see a few jumps in the cap, salaries around the league will only go up.  If those increases push 60 and 70-point players up to this price point, Dubois could provide some surplus value assuming his production improves following the swap.

At this point, I’m not sure I’d qualify the idea of Dubois providing surplus value to the Kings as probable.  But there are a couple of plausible ways that it could happen.  I don’t think Los Angeles is really expecting that to happen.  If he gives them 60-70 points per season, they’ll be pleased with the contract, even if it is one that winds up being a little overpriced in the end.

blues1967: How do you see the Central shaking out? I think Colorado and Dallas are clear front runners, Arizona and Chicago bring up the rear, and the other four will battle it out in the middle. Not sure who has the advantage between the Blues, Wild, Preds and Jets.

Dallas and Colorado are certainly the class of the division.  Colorado won the division by a point last season but at this point, I’m inclined to hand the early edge to the Stars with the Avs in second.  I don’t expect there to be a third team in that group like Minnesota was last season.

I do, however, lean toward the Wild being the third seed still.  I expect their goaltending to take a step back but I think their offense will be a bit more successful than a year ago when they were 22nd.  That should offset some of the goaltending give-back and keep them in.

As for who the top Wild Card contender might be, I’d go with St. Louis.  I think Jordan Binnington will be better and if not, Joel Hofer can push for more playing time.  Their offensive depth is better than it might seem at first glance and they have one of the better defense groups still.  They could surprise some teams.

Nashville and Winnipeg have definitely taken steps back.  On paper, the Jets could very well push for the third seed still but with a pair of core veterans on expiring deals, it’s hardly a guarantee they’re there for the entire season.  Meanwhile, I expect that the Predators are going to struggle to score in a big way.  Right now, I could be convinced to put Arizona ahead of them and then Chicago will likely be at the bottom even with Connor Bedard in the fold.

jacl: The Stars win the Stanley Cup this year. Am I right or am I right? I think Johnston gets 35 goals easily. They have a lot of good young talent that should be ready for a role on the team.

Generally speaking, with questions about a team or the field, I’ll go with the field.  But Dallas is a legitimate contender, I’ll go that far.  Their attack is quite deep (deep enough that makes me think Wyatt Johnston isn’t going to check in quite that high in goals in his sophomore season) so they should be near the top of the conference in that department.  Jake Oettinger is a high-end goaltender.  That’s two of the three they’re in really good shape in.

The back end is where I’m still concerned, however.  It was a weak spot at times last year and they’ve done nothing of much consequence.  Gavin Bayreuther replaced Colin Miller and well, that’s it.  They’re clearly banking on Thomas Harley stepping into a key full-time role and Nils Lundkvist taking a big step forward.  It’s possible that both happen but that’s certainly on the optimistic side.

The reality is that behind Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, things thin out quickly.  It was a problem in the playoffs when Ryan Suter was asked to play big minutes, a role he’s not suited for at the age of 38.  If GM Jim Nill can find a way to add an impact top-four defender, that just might be the final piece of the puzzle to give a real shot at going all the way.  With their cap situation, that move won’t be coming for a while.

KRB: The Capitals may have got the steal of the draft in #40 pick Andrew Cristall. And I’ll guess that he plays in the NHL sooner, rather than later. The reason why is because at the start of the 2024-25 season, he’ll be 19, too young for the AHL, but probably too good for the WHL. So he’s a Cap then. Thoughts?

I was surprised to see Cristall slip that deep in the draft as he felt like a worthwhile gamble in the 20s for a team looking to take a big swing on a player who, if all pans out, could be a quality top-six NHL winger.  I liked that pick for them a lot.  But he’s undersized and there are questions about how his game will translate to the pros.  Some smaller players find a way to make a mark but a lot don’t.

I get your point about Washington possibly not wanting to send Cristall back for his 19-year-old season as he won’t have much left to show at the major junior level.  But is he going to be able to hold down at least a third-line spot with the Capitals that season?  (I wouldn’t want any junior-aged prospect toiling away on the fourth line from a development standpoint.)  That I’m not so sure about.  I think they will want his defensive game to get a lot better so that Cristall isn’t exploited in that regard in the NHL.  Can that level of improvement happen in the WHL?  It’s possible but not probable as Kelowna will be wanting him to focus on his offense, not so much the defense.

There isn’t a great solution.  Washington I’m sure would love to send Cristall to the AHL in 2024-25 but the CHL agreement isn’t going away anytime soon.  Between the NHL and WHL, I think they’ll play it safe and ultimately send him back down and then get him to Hershey the following year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Boston, the state of San Jose’s rebuild, and more.  As we’ve done with the last few mailbag submissions, we’ll break it up into three separate columns so if your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in one of the next two.

SkidRowe: How will the Bruins fare this year? The reigning Presidents Trophy winners are returning with virtually the same defense and goaltending as last year but lost almost a third of their offense due to the departures of Bergeron, Krejci, Hall, Bertuzzi, etc.

I’ll qualify this by saying that I’m not convinced the roster they have today in mid-August is the one we’ll see when the puck drops in October.  I think they have a move coming to help up front.  Not a high-end one with a big-name player but I expect them to upgrade their secondary scoring at some point.  If they do more than I think they will, this prediction could change as a result.

But for now, I have them just missing.  (Which is where I had them last year and look how accurate that prediction turned out…)  Offensively, they’ve taken a couple of steps back which could put them back closer to the middle of the pack.  Not that they needed to outscore a lot of problems last season but a more average attack will take some wins off the board.

Without as much puck control, I’m also a bit concerned about their goaltending.  It would be unrealistic to expect both Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman to have career years again in general but without an offense as dominant, that will also put more pressure on the netminders.  I expect them to still be above average but nowhere near the extent they were last season.  That will take some more wins off the board unless they find a way to play at the same level.

Boston’s roster is still decent, all things considered.  But with Toronto, Florida, and Tampa Bay in the picture, decent isn’t good enough to leapfrog those teams.  I think this could be the year Buffalo puts it together long enough to squeak in and with the depth in the Metropolitan Division, the Atlantic isn’t getting both Wild Card spots.  It wouldn’t shock me if the Bruins found a way to get in but right now, I have them just on the outside looking in.

PyramidHeadcrab: What do you think of the Sharks’ roster after the Karlsson trade, and their future roadmap now that his salary is (mostly) clear?

In terms of what their roster looks like now, my thought is that it’s a roster designed with the intention to try to bottom out.  There’s no way a team is going to improve after losing Brent Burns, Timo Meier, and Erik Karlsson in the span of 13 months.  The fact they opted to move the two veterans in a marketplace that wasn’t exactly favorable for high-priced contracts only cemented the fact that they weren’t looking for a short-term turnaround.

They’re going to struggle to score even with some of the additions they’ve made up front; I think Mikael Granlund could rebound relatively well there but this is still a group that should be at the bottom of the pack offensively.  Defensively, they’re in big trouble as a few of the options on their projected roster are either fringe pieces or overpaid veterans struggling to hang onto a spot.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see the speculated trade with Vancouver happen closer to training camp which would add Tyler Myers but that still wouldn’t move the needle much.  There are questions with both goaltenders as well (although there is also some possible upside) and the end result is a forecast for a painful season.

In terms of a future roadmap, however, it’s relatively clean.  They only have three contracts above $5MM left and around 40% of their roster is on an expiring contract next summer.  That will give GM Mike Grier some flexibility to perhaps get involved as a third-party facilitator in the future to try to restock the prospect cupboards more quickly while flipping some of those expiring deals in the meantime.  The next few years are going to be rough but it’s pretty clear what the plan is.  Getting to this point is the easy part, however.  Building it back up will take some patience and skill to get and develop the right pieces.

Jasen: I am curious about the Flames this year… My gut feeling is that both Lindholm and Backlund will re-sign. My other gut feeling is that Hanifin will be traded. I am thinking a one-for-one for Carolina’s Pesce. Thoughts?

I am also not sold on a bounce-back season from Markstrom. Sure, his stats do demonstrate that he did come back from a bad season before, but I’m still not sold. Markstrom, so I’d ship him to WPG for Hellebuyck. Problem is that we are light on 1st rounders. So Markstrom, 2025 2nd & prospect Zary for Hellebuyck. Thoughts?

I’m with you on Elias Lindholm eventually re-signing.  Mikael Backlund is more of a maybe but I expect an in-season decision on that front.  I also agree that it looks unlikely that Noah Hanifin will be back.

That said, I’m not sure I agree with the proposed trade.  Carolina has a bit of a surplus on the back end so they may not want to take a defender back for whichever one they moved (Brett Pesce or Brady Skjei).  Meanwhile, the impetus for moving Hanifin now would be the contract situation; GM Craig Conroy has said he doesn’t want to run the risk of letting a player go for nothing.  Trading for Pesce doesn’t fix that since he’s on an expiring deal too.  Now, if Pesce comes with a new contract, then sure, this makes more sense for Calgary.  But otherwise, it feels like they need to get an asset back that’s likely to still be there a year from now.

The same concern comes up for your Connor Hellebuyck proposal.  If he isn’t willing to sign an extension, you’ve now moved a quality goalie and a first-round prospect in Connor Zary for a short-term rental.  Perhaps more importantly, you’ve moved those pieces for a rental that might not be enough of a difference-maker to get Calgary back into the playoffs.  What you’ve proposed might be enough on Winnipeg’s end (especially since they’re hoping to avoid a full-scale rebuild) I don’t think the value is there for the Flames.  Sure, there’s an eventual pathway to Dustin Wolf getting a full-time job but there are better ways to accomplish that than this.

I’m more confident than you seem to be about Markstrom bouncing back.  The track record is there and this is a team that still has a pretty good back end as things stand.  If they decide to move him down the road to make room for Wolf, that’s an easier move to make next summer off an improved showing than it is now.

Black Ace57: With the whole ordeal with Ivan Fedotov I was wondering what powers the IIHF has in this dispute and any future disputes between the NHL and KHL until an agreement between the leagues is made again.

I have to admit, I’m a bit unsure about this one as we’re wading in uncharted waters here.  The IIHF is a neutral third party here and since they’re the governing body for most leagues internationally, I suspect there’s some sort of dispute resolution rights within their charter that gives them the authority to do this.

I’m more intrigued to see what happens if the ruling goes in Philadelphia’s favor.  Considering that Russia hasn’t been granted the right to return to international competition, some are already calling for the federation to withdraw from the IIHF.  An unfavorable ruling here could only cement that mindset.  If that happens and the KHL tries to operate independently of everything, let’s just say that could be really interesting to follow.

While we’re on the Fedotov matter, I’m at least a little surprised the Flyers are doing this.  Fedotov is going straight to unrestricted free agency when his tolled deal is played out.  At this point, it seems reasonable to think his intention is to stay in the KHL which would make him a one-and-done player.  Wouldn’t they be better off with his one-and-done cost-controlled year coming when they’re trying to be more competitive?

They already have Carter Hart in place.  The extension they gave to Samuel Ersson (which seemed a bit pricey and a bit too early) suggests they have NHL plans for him next season.  If Fedotov winds up with Philadelphia, now he’s backing up Hart and Ersson is in the minors, putting him on an above-market bridge deal the next year.  There’s sticking up for the principle of the matter but from a team value perspective, they might be better off with a ruling that says he has to play out the KHL deal first and then must fulfill the NHL agreement.

Yzerplan19: Thoughts on what impact Babcock can have on the Blue Jackets? They have a new D group, and some talented players, with a good system could they be in the Wild Card conversation this year? Or next?

I covered Columbus and Babcock a bit in a recent mailbag so I’ll piggyback off those thoughts.  They’ll be better but I don’t see them being in the playoff mix next season.  The Metropolitan is pretty deep as it is and I have a hard time seeing them get around 35 more points than last season.

I’m even a bit iffy on their fortunes for 2024-25.  There is a good young nucleus in place but they’re not near their primes just yet.  I think 2025-26 is the year for them to really turn it around.  By then, that young core will be more established and will have gone through enough of the early growing pains that many young teams face which will have them well-positioned to make a push.

I actually don’t mind the Mike Babcock hire.  Last season was ugly and they need some structure.  Yes, his last few seasons behind an NHL bench weren’t great but he was widely considered a top coach in the past.  A good system, and perhaps more importantly, good structure, should aid in the development of some of their core youngsters.  That should help them improve in the standings and give GM Jarmo Kekalainen a better assessment of what they have and what they still need which is quite important.  But even with the pickups they made on the back end, I don’t see that getting them to the postseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

It has been a busy offseason so far for many NHL teams, punctuated by one of the bigger trades we’ve seen in a while which occurred over the weekend.  Meanwhile, there are a handful of notable names still unsigned so there’s some hope that there could be more activity to come before training camps get underway in about six weeks.

With that in mind, it’s a good time to run our next mailbag.  Our last one ran in three parts.  The first segment looked back at the draft, what should be expected from the Flyers next season, and the Kings’ aggression in recent years.  The second discussed Boston’s center situation, Robby Fabbri’s future with Detroit, and expectations for Columbus in 2023-24.  Meanwhile, the third one examined the recent inactivity from Calgary and Winnipeg with some of their veterans, Ty Smith’s first season with Pittsburgh, and big names that could be on the move next.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.  The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Calgary and Winnipeg, Ty Smith’s situation in Pittsburgh, Atlantic Division predictions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag pieces.

Grocery Stick: What can we expect from the Flames and the Jets? Both teams have players who want out but apart from Dubois to the Kings, we haven’t seen anything so far.

Calgary hasn’t given up on re-signing Elias Lindholm yet and by all accounts, it doesn’t appear he’s 100% sure he wants to leave.  Until he says a final no to the Flames, I think he stays put.  I’m a bit surprised that Noah Hanifin is still around as it sounds like his desire to leave is a little more concrete.  However, the acquiring teams are going to want to try to extend him as well, adding another wrinkle to discussions.  I think there’s a decent shot he goes this summer but it might need to wait until Erik Karlsson’s situation is sorted out first.

Mikael Backlund is the other player of some note and he, too, has balked at an extension thus far.  However, he recently raised the possibility of an in-season signing depending on how things are going.  That gives GM Craig Conroy some runway to work with.  I expect his situation to go unresolved heading into the season and they’ll re-assess closer to the trade deadline.  I suspect they’re still open to moving Daniel Vladar although there aren’t many viable trade options for him left.  Calgary has a path to a cap-compliant roster with what they have now so they don’t have to necessarily do anything else before the season starts.

For Winnipeg, unless Connor Hellebuyck’s reported contract ask comes down from the $9MM range, I don’t think his trade market is going to be good enough for the Jets to get enough of a return to justify moving him.  They’re not giving up on chasing a playoff spot and hanging in the mix is a lot easier with Hellebuyck than without.  Starting the season with him and looking to move him closer to the deadline has its risks (an injury or buyers not needing a starting goalie) but I think it’s a very realistic option that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is considering.

As for Mark Scheifele, I’ve flip-flopped on this answer all summer.  Going back to the point about Winnipeg wanting to push for a playoff spot, I could see them keeping him to start and hoping that a hot start might convince him to extend.  I don’t think there are a lot of viable landing spots for him in terms of getting him to fit into someone else’s cap picture.  Midseason, it’s generally easier to move money and the Jets might be willing to retain at that time, something that would be tougher for them to do now.  As of this moment, I think he stays to start the season.  By the time we run another mailbag, I might have flip-flopped again on this one.

jason830: Best and worst stadiums to see a hockey game?

I watch a lot of hockey but very seldom do I actually go to a game in person.  I’ve been to a grand total of one NHL game live and that was more than a decade ago.  I’m not the right one to answer this so let me turn this over to some of our other writers.

Josh Erickson: For the best, Vegas would get my vote by a mile. Incredible atmosphere, great sightlines, great fans, and reasonably priced food (at the time, it was during their inaugural season).  For the worst, my vote would easily go to the old Gila River Arena in Glendale.

Josh Cybulski: Best: The atmosphere is insane and with over 21K fans in the building, you feel right on top of the players and your view of the ice is really something. It also helps that the pre and post-game spots are fantastic.  Worst: Ottawa – It is a run-down building without many frills that is surrounded by car dealerships and an outlet mall 30 minutes from downtown. To top it all off, getting in and out of the building is a nightmare, even on nights when only 12K fans show up. The wind whips across the wide-open field, meaning that when you leave the building after the game you have a half-mile walk in a blizzard to get to your frozen car. Not fun.

Ethan Hetu: I would add Arena Riga in Riga, Latvia to the best list. I had the chance to go there earlier this summer and see Latvia win some big games at the Worlds, and I’ll say there aren’t many places in hockey where I’ve witnessed fans as devoted and passionate as Latvians for their national team. It was packed full of people and even the outside area was filled with people who didn’t have tickets but still wanted to be in close proximity to the action, watching on big screens right outside. It felt as though an entire country was at a standstill, entirely focused on being there to help Latvia win.

The arena itself is pretty no-frills and not really up to the standard of what NHL teams play in (sort of to be expected) but in terms of atmosphere, you really can’t beat what goes on in Riga, they really do love hockey there.

Jasen: I think Max Lajoie would thrive in Montréal and be a nice supplement to Anderson as another big power forward. I’d love for my beloved Habitants to go get Lafreniere from the Rangers. Thoughts on the cost? Also, I think Ethan Bear would be a nice addition to our defense. Thoughts?

For the first question, I assume you’re asking about Max Comtois as Maxime Lajoie is a defenseman who now is in Toronto’s system.  In theory, he could be that player for the Canadiens but he wasn’t that player the last two seasons in Anaheim.  On top of that, Montreal already has a bit of a logjam up front.  Depending on how certain things shake out, he could make sense on a one-year flyer but as things stand, I don’t think there’s a roster fit for Comtois even though they could use a bit more size in an Atlantic Division that has bulked up over the summer.

As for Alexis Lafreniere, this came up before the draft.  I didn’t see a good fit then and frankly, there’s even less of one now.  The Rangers are in win-now mode but Montreal doesn’t really have a good low-cost veteran (the AAV is a big factor for New York which takes some of the pricier players off the table) to move.  Their best offer is a futures-based one which doesn’t do the Rangers any good right now.  I don’t think the Canadiens should be moving their unprotected 2024 first-round pick which takes the idea of an offer sheet in the $4.29MM to $6.435MM range off the table; they can’t do one for less as they don’t have their own second-rounder.  Lafreniere fits with what Montreal is trying to do in the sense of getting a young core of first-round talents up front and hoping for internal growth.  But unless New York can flip a futures-based package from the Canadiens elsewhere for a win-now piece, I don’t see a plausible trade scenario between the two sides.

As for Bear, he’s going to miss the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery so I don’t anticipate him signing anytime soon.  A 26-year-old right-shot defender should have some value to a team like the Canadiens but where does he fit in on their roster?  David Savard isn’t going anywhere next season (2024-25 might be a different story though).  They need to see where Justin Barron fits in long term so sending him to AHL Laval to make room for Bear is a step back development-wise.  They really like Johnathan Kovacevic on the third pairing so I don’t think he’s going either.  Chris Wideman is the probable seventh defender as things stand (at this point, I expect Arber Xhekaj to start in Laval where he can at least play over being the seventh defender) but signing someone like Bear to provide an upgrade on a healthy scratch doesn’t really move the needle.  And if they were to play Bear on his off-side, I don’t think he displaces any of their top three options there either.  If injuries strike early, then sure, Bear fits as a plug-and-play option on the third pairing once he’s healthy.  But right now, I don’t see where he fits in to justify signing him now.

WilfPaiement: I’m wondering why Ty Smith seems to be buried in the minors, and when he gets called up he does quite well.

Last season was certainly an odd one for Smith who went from being a regular with New Jersey to being a key part of the trade return for John Marino to spending most of the season with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.  Not all of this was due to factors within his control, however.

The Penguins were right up against the salary cap last season to the point where finding cap space for recalls was getting challenging.  Accordingly, someone making closer to the minimum became more appealing.  That worked in the favor of a veteran like Mark Friedman who made close to $100K less than Smith, who had the added ‘benefit’ of being waiver-exempt.  When you’re trying to bank cap space, cheaper recalls are more preferable so having Friedman come up allowed them to save money and keep Smith playing big minutes in the AHL.

This wasn’t the only reason, however.  After two full NHL campaigns, Smith was sent down to dominate and he didn’t quite do that.  He was above-average on the farm, no doubt, but he also didn’t become the go-to number one I think they were hoping he would.  And in his limited action with Pittsburgh, you’re right, he didn’t fare all that poorly although he benefitted from some sheltered matchups when he was in there.

The good news for Smith is that he’s now waiver-eligible.  It stands to reason that the Penguins aren’t going to risk waiving him to send him back to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton so his days of being buried in the minors should be over.  Now, it’s going to be a matter of cracking their regular lineup, something that should completely be in his hands.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include the potential fit in Boston for a pair of key rental centers, fair expectations for a new-look Blue Jackets squad, rules surrounding bonuses, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while there will also be one that runs tomorrow.

PyramidHeadcrab: Considering the changes brought by the draft and UFA day, what are some teams you see making the playoffs in 2024 that weren’t really in the picture in 2023? And what are some teams you see missing the playoffs?

And who are your favorite three teams to finish with the highest draft lottery odds?

I tackled a similar question to this one last month before free agency so let’s check in on those teams and see what has changed.

In the East, I had Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo as playoff candidates among those that missed a year ago.  As things stand, I’m not as bullish on the Sens now as I was then as I’m not overly confident that Joonas Korpisalo is going to move the needle enough in goal and their offense has taken a step back for the time being.  The Penguins have improved its roster this summer so I still expect them to jump back in and while the Sabres haven’t done much, they’ve added to their back end and can rely on internal growth up front to bolster their chances.  I think they still get in.

As for my candidates to miss, I had Florida, the Islanders, and possibly Tampa Bay.  The Panthers have added some depth which helps but their question will be how impactful their early-season injuries will be.  I’m leaning more toward them being in now, however.  New York didn’t exactly improve or get worse so they’ll probably be just in or just out.  The Lightning are definitely weaker and while I’m not ready to proclaim they’re a non-playoff team yet, I think they’re vulnerable.  I could see Boston missing out now unless their goaltending tandem is able to play at a similar level next season; that would be the great equalizer after losing a lot of firepower.

As for the West, I had Vancouver getting in and maybe St. Louis.  The Canucks have mostly stayed quiet this summer and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.  On paper, they’re a better team than their record has been and if they play up to their potential, they’re a playoff-caliber squad.  I like what the Blues have done, getting Kevin Hayes on the cheap and adding Oskar Sundqvist for the minimum.  I’m still skeptical that they’ll get in but they’re better than they were a few weeks ago.

My main candidate to miss from the West a few weeks ago was Winnipeg and that hasn’t really changed.  They’re a weaker team than they were before with an expectation of two more key players moving between now and the trade deadline.  That’s probably not a good recipe to make the playoffs.  Since I had to pick two teams a month ago, my other one was Seattle.  They haven’t done much one way or the other so they’re still a bubble team in my books.

On the other end of the scale, I have Philadelphia in the bottom three as they’re going to go through some growing pains.  San Jose doesn’t have a great roster and if they move Erik Karlsson in a trade that likely won’t bring back much win-now help, they’re going to struggle.  As for the third team, I’m not really too confident in this one but I’ll say Anaheim with the assumption that John Gibson gets moved.  With weak goaltending, that will offset some improvements from their young core, keeping them near the bottom again.

SkidRowe: What would it take to bring Mark Scheifele or Elias Lindholm to the Bruins?

For the purposes of this answer, I’m going to operate under the assumption that it’s an extend-and-trade agreement for both players.  As straight rentals, I don’t think Boston should be pursuing them, at least at this point.

For Scheifele, I think their best shot at getting him is if (or when, perhaps) Connor Hellebuyck gets moved.  Winnipeg is looking for win-now pieces in the hopes of avoiding a rebuild.  I don’t think they’d have a lot of interest in Linus Ullmark (who might have the Jets on his partial no-trade list anyway) but Jeremy Swayman would be an intriguing piece.  If the two moves are made concurrently, the team that gets Hellebuyck could theoretically move the center back for Hellebuyck with Boston’s package for Scheifele being headlined by a controllable young starter in Swayman.

Cap-wise, another piece needs to be in there, likely Derek Forbort or Matt Grzelcyk, both on expiring contracts.  That makes the money work when you factor in the budgeted contract for Swayman.  But there probably needs to be another headline piece in there and that’s where it gets tricky.  Would they move Fabian Lysell?  If I’m Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, I’m asking for him in that package as Swayman for an extended Scheifele slants too heavily in Boston’s favor.  That’s at least where I see the foundation of a move for him.

As for Lindholm, talk about pretty much the ideal replacement for Patrice Bergeron, at least on paper.  Finding a trade match will be a lot trickier, however, as they’re not going to have interest in one of Boston’s goalies.  They also have less cap flexibility than Boston does so now we’re talking about basically a straight money match which limits options.  There aren’t a lot of combinations that work; the closest money-wise might be Jake DeBrusk and either Ian Mitchell or Jakub Zboril.  The problem is a package headlined by those two isn’t getting Lindholm as a rental let alone as an extended player and the Bruins simply lack the draft pick and prospect capital to put a viable package together.  There’s an outside shot to do something with Scheifele but I don’t see a fit for a trade for Lindholm even though he’d basically be the perfect on-ice fit for them.

Brassroo: Robby Fabbri is a decent player when healthy, but I’d like to see younger players get their chances. Any likelihood that he gets bought out or traded?

We can cross off the buyout option as the time that Detroit could have done that has come and gone.  I’d also put the odds of a trade somewhere between slim and nil.  I doubt there’s a team out there that’s willing to trade an asset for Fabbri when they can go sign a similar free agent for less than the two years at $4MM per season.  Meanwhile, the Red Wings aren’t in a spot where they need to free up a roster spot or cap space so it doesn’t make much sense for them to either pay down the contract with retention or give up an asset to get a team with cap room to take on Fabbri’s deal.

There is another option that could achieve your objective though – waivers.  If it gets to a point where Detroit needs a roster spot up front for a younger player that’s forcing their hand, they can just waive Fabbri and send him to Grand Rapids when he clears.  They only clear $1.15MM off the cap in doing so but they’re far enough under where that’s not a problem.  GM Steve Yzerman isn’t afraid to take that route either – Alex Nedeljkovic, Adam Erne, and Jakub Vrana all had AHL stints last season on one-way deals.  That might be the best way for them to accomplish the goal of opening a spot for a prospect without waiting for an injury to arise.

Devil Shark: Which team do you think has the best bottom 6 in the league?

Which team do you think has the best 5th and 6th D pair in the league?

Which team do you think has the best league ready depth playing in the AHL and ready to call up?

Subject to change since there’s bound to be a lot of bottom-six activity in the next two months but I’ll go with Dallas as things stand.  There’s a mixture of youth (Ty Dellandrea and maybe Wyatt Johnston; otherwise veteran Matt Duchene might be in there), scoring depth (at least two of Evgenii Dadonov, Mason Marchment, Duchene, and Tyler Seguin), and some capable veterans in Craig Smith and Radek Faksa.  Sam Steel is also in that group and has proven to be serviceable and I wouldn’t be shocked if a prospect like Logan Stankoven forces his way into the mix.  That’s a group with a fair bit of firepower and versatility.

For the best third pairing, I’ll go with Vegas.  Assuming Alec Martinez plays up at five-on-five with Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore stay intact, that has the third pairing at Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud.  Both players can move onto the second pairing without an issue if injuries arise which also means they can carry heavier minutes than a typical third duo.  They’re also young enough that there’s still room for improvement.  That’s a third pairing a lot of teams would love to have for themselves.

The last one is a bit of an eye of the beholder question.  When I think of NHL-ready depth, I’m looking for players that can easily be slotted in depth roles.  Based on that definition, Pittsburgh stands out as they should have multiple players with NHL experience in AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, assuming they get through waivers to get there.  Columbus has a bit of a roster crunch which could result in them sending some younger players down that are capable of playing bigger roles; they might not be as proven as some of Pittsburgh’s options but the upside is better which might be more appealing depending on what it is you’re looking for from a depth perspective.

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Topics in this edition of the mailbag include last month’s draft, a discussion on if the Kings have loaded up too early, the KHL salary cap, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back next weekend when we’ll run two more mailbags based on the questions from our most recent callout.

Gbear: Which teams’ draft selections did you really like and which did you really not like?

I liked Chicago’s draft and not just because they got a franchise player in Connor Bedard.  Oliver Moore slipping to them at 19 was nice for them and as a result, it’s quite possible that their top two centers of the future will come from this class.  Adam Gajan is one of the higher-projected goalies from this draft class and while I’m not certain there’s a true starter out of the bunch, he could be an option for them in a few years.  They have a shot at three impact players out of this draft class which would be a great outcome.

Buffalo also did well.  Zach Benson slipping outside of the top ten was certainly fortuitous for them and Anton Wahlberg was rated by some as a first-round talent that they got in the second round.  I think Maxim Strbak could play on an NHL back end in the future while Scott Ratzlaff is someone I mentioned in a previous mailbag as an under-the-radar goalie prospect that could see his stock rise next season.

It’s harder to pick classes that I didn’t like as much as there are several teams that didn’t have great drafts simply because they didn’t have many picks.  It’s hard to hold that performance against them.

But one team that puzzled me was Arizona.  It’s not that Dmitri Simashev and Daniil But weren’t first-round caliber players.  They certainly were.  But it’s fair to say that those were pretty sizable reaches at six and twelve.  As we now have heard in several reports, there were teams looking to trade up and I feel the Coyotes might have lost out on an opportunity to gain some extra assets.  Yes, they have plenty of picks already but just because they did doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have looked at the trade-down scenarios where they still likely would have got their desired players.

Emoney123: After signing Cates and York this week, will the Flyers score enough to compete this season?

What is the status of the Flyers goalie chart? They seem to like drafting Russian goalies with Fedotov, Kolosov, and Zavragin… will any make it to the NHL with the Flyers? Will Sandstrom and Ersson start the season at Lehigh Valley while Maier at Reading and Bjarnson staying in the WHL? Hart as the presumed starter with Petersen as backup or does Briere dive headfirst and trade Hart to continue the rebuild? What would a probable return for Hart look like?

I don’t get the sense that the Flyers are looking to compete next season…at least in the traditional sense.  The moves they’ve made are that of a team that has an eye on bottoming out and trying to become a contender in the Macklin Celebrini sweepstakes.  So, are they going to score enough to compete at the top end of the standings?  No, but they’ll score enough to compete at the bottom of them.  Next season should be about giving their young forwards extended looks in key roles to see how many of them can realistically be a part of their long-term core.  With that approach will come some scoring droughts.

Of the three Russian goalies, Ivan Fedotov has the best shot at making it to the NHL.  He can play at this level now.  Of course, there’s the latest issue to navigate with the KHL registering a contract for Fedotov even though his NHL agreement is tolled.  I don’t think we’ve heard the last of things on that front.  If he winds up in the NHL after all is said and done, he’s the backup for Carter Hart and Calvin Petersen is once again an expensive third-string option.  Of the others you listed, I think you have the desired Lehigh Valley tandem if Felix Sandstrom clears waivers, Carson Bjarnason will stay in junior, and Nolan Meier isn’t currently under contract for next season.

I could be completely wrong on this but I think the idea of trading Hart has come and gone.  Connor Hellebuyck is in play.  So is John Gibson.  I don’t think it’s entirely impossible that Boston has to trade one of their goalies if an opportunity to add another piece arises.  This is not a marketplace to go into and command top value for Hart’s services.  If they can’t get top value, they shouldn’t be moving him at this time.

Schwa: With rumors that Tarasenko wants to stay with the Rangers, so you see them moving Goodrow and Vlad taking a discount? What does it take to move Goodie’s contract out?

Considering that Vladimir Tarasenko fired his agent earlier this month, I’m not certain that he’s willing to sign for a significant discount.  If that was the case, he’d have advised his old agent to get a deal done with the Rangers.  Instead, his new agency is starting the process all over again.  Is it possible that he’s open to a discount?  Perhaps.  But his recent actions suggest that it’s not his Plan A.  I’m intrigued to see where he lands as I think he’s one of the dominoes that needs to come off the board before we start to see a bit of activity on the trade front.

As for what it’d take to move Goodrow’s contract out?  My initial thought is more than what New York would be willing to part with.  In this market with so few teams willing or able to take on money (and even less willing to take on term), I think it would start with a first-round pick with a decent prospect on top of it.  Is that a price worth paying to keep Tarasenko?  I suppose it could be but it’d depend on how long he’d be willing to sign for.  As a rental on a discount contract, probably not.  For multiple years on a below-market deal though?  I suppose it could be a consideration.

Goodrow is a capable bottom-six player and he certainly fills some needs on the Rangers.  But an AAV of over $3.6MM is on the high side when most role players are signing for half of that or less.  Four more years of that contract is also a longer term than most free agents have been getting.  That’s a double whammy that will make him tough to move as effective as he is.

rpoabr: Did the Kings push their chips in too soon to try to take advantage of Kopitar and Doughty still being productive? Traded away a lot of draft capital and upside players over the last year.

I remember having that same thought last year around the time they traded for Kevin Fiala.  It’s not that it was a bad trade but it seemed like they were fast-tracking just a little bit.  Safe to say that one has worked out so far.  At least at the deadline last season, they addressed the goaltending temporarily and with getting Vladislav Gavrikov to extend on a short-term contract, they’ll get some value out of the first-rounder they gave up there.

I don’t mind the package they gave up for Pierre-Luc Dubois, however, one that was more quantity than true quality.  Alex Iafallo and Gabriel Vilardi are good supporting-cast players but if they’re the anchor pieces for a long-term center, take it and run.  Rasmus Kupari’s stock has been sliding so moving him out isn’t the end of the world either.  Impact centers are hard to trade for and this wasn’t an overpayment so I think it was a good move for them to make.

Fundamentally speaking, I understand why they’re pushing in their chips now.  Drew Doughty is still at the top of his game and Anze Kopitar is still a high-end center.  Some of their younger players are on club-friendly contracts so their window is now.  At this point, my biggest concern for them is that they basically ignored the goaltending position.  A Cam Talbot–Pheonix Copley tandem isn’t good enough in my view to contend in the playoffs.  I expect they’ll be trying to address that in-season if they want to best position themselves for a long postseason run.

Gmm8811: Wondering if you can share any info on how the salaries work in the KHL? Cap? Minimum salary? Top pay? Any info on AHL salaries also? Does a player on a non-NHL contract have a minimum?

For the KHL, I can give you numbers from recent seasons at least.  Their cap in 2022-23 was 900 million rubles (around $12.8MM US) with a floor of 315 million rubles (roughly $4.8MM US).  Last June, Championat in Russia revealed the top-13 salaries in the league from the year before.  Blackhawks ‘prospect’ Max Shalunov was the highest in 2021-22 at 90 million rubles (around $1MM US).  A 2011 draft pick, Shalunov is still property of Chicago should he decide to try his hand in the NHL.  I assume there’s a minimum salary in that league although I wasn’t able to find what it was.

As for the AHL, I can fill in some blanks.  There is a CBA for that league (which expires in August 2024) and the minimum salary for the upcoming season is $52,725 US for players on one-way AHL contracts.  For players on two-way deals with the ECHL as well, the minimum is $41,625 for US-based teams or $54,100 for Canadian-based clubs paying in that currency.  There is no salary cap or maximum salary for that league.  Players on AHL-only contracts seldom have the financial terms released but we’ve seen some recent NHL two-way contracts around the $500K mark in AHL salary (or at least a guaranteed portion).

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago and their goaltending, way-too-early predictions for new playoff teams next season, Sergei Bobrovsky’s volatility, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbags.

Unclemike1526: The Blackhawks have Mrazek and Soderblom-Stauber for this year. We’re stuck with Mrazek. So Commesso, and maybe Basse in the system. I think the Hawks should draft Hrabal, however they need to. I saw one mock draft saying the Hawks would draft Trey Augustine in the second round. What is your opinion of Hrabal and Augustine? I think the Hawks stay put at 1 and 19. Then they take their high second-round pick and package it with a player or more picks to get back into the late 1st round and take Hrabal or if he’s gone, Gauthier. I think that would be a great scenario for the Hawks. I think you can never have enough good goalies. Thoughts?

I like Michael Hrabal but it feels to me like his stock is soaring a bit too high right now.  Yes, he’s big and big is good for a goalie but I’m not convinced he’s a 1A starter down the road.  He’s raw and rangy and those players don’t always pan out.  Size allows him to get to more shots but he still needs to be technically sound and by most accounts, that’s something that still needs a lot of work.  If he’s a platoon player, he can still have a long and productive career but is a platoon goalie worth a first-rounder?  I don’t think it is.  I wouldn’t be shocked if someone picks him in the first round but I’m not convinced that it’s a good idea.  In your scenario, I like the idea of trading up for Ethan Gauthier more than I do for Hrabal.  If Hrabal is there at 35, grab him then.

As for Augustine, I think he might be the better goalie of the two but while Hrabal’s size has sent his stock soaring, Augustine’s size has lowered him in the rankings.  He’s more of a technically-sound netminder and in a structured system, I think he can do quite well, at least as a platoon option.  Chicago is anything but structured right now but any goalie being taken is going to be four years or more away from being NHL-ready.  I’m betting that by then, the Blackhawks’ defense will be much better than it is now.

As for the philosophical idea of never having enough good goalies, I tend to agree if a team is trending toward a platoon as many are.  The value in that approach is saving money relative to having a true starter and a backup but it also means that you need to have a few netminders in the system.  As soon as one of those platoon pieces gets too expensive, the next in-house option needs to be ready for this to work as planned.

Generally speaking, there are only around 20 goalies that are picked in a typical draft year.  With more teams going to a platoon system, that number should be higher.  We’ll find out soon enough if that trend continues or if teams get more aggressive in getting netminders into their prospect pools.

random comment guy: I would like to piggyback off this, with the Hawks needing to reach the cap floor (roughly $16M or so), what teams will be calling to get high-salary players off their roster? I assume the Hawks will want 1-2 year contracts as it will fit their timeline. Also, do you feel that the return should be more draft picks or prospects/players?

There are a few groups of teams in the category of needing to move money.  There are those that have a high-priced contract for an underachieving player that are just looking to get out of the deal.  Think the Islanders and Josh Bailey.  There are those that wouldn’t mind offloading an LTIR-bound contract such as the Maple Leafs and Jake Muzzin.  Then there are teams that don’t want to move a player but whose cap situations are going to force their hand.  Boston and to a lesser extent Edmonton are among those.  Vancouver is sort of here as well although they don’t have to make a move, they just might prefer to.

I agree that Chicago – or any team acting as a clearinghouse – will be looking for short-term contracts.  Why take on a long-term agreement that could be problematic down the road if it can be avoided?  Sure, there could be more futures coming their way as compensation but there’s a limit to how much a team is going to pay to offload an unwanted contract and it probably won’t be enough to justify a long-term acquisition.

I’d put the Blackhawks in a spot where they should be targeting prospects.  They’re not ready to push for a playoff spot yet, even with Connor Bedard giving them a big boost offensively.  They’ve just gutted too much of the core to turn it around in a year.  But getting more draft picks that are years away from playing doesn’t make sense either.  The sweet spot for them should be drafted players between 19 and 22 (give or take a year) that are on the cusp of being ready.  Those will be the core pieces that align with Bedard’s timeline and part of the core that eventually helps lead them back into contention.  A year or two from now when it’s time to flip the switch, then go after the win-now players who will then be augmented by this prospect core.

M34: Waaaay too early predictions. Two or three teams from each conference’s playoff picture, that won’t make the playoffs next year. And who takes their spots?

The next couple of weeks could make me look silly on this but here goes nothing.

East: Even with Alex DeBrincat likely to be moved, the Senators can still do some damage next season.  A full season from Josh Norris will help.  I think they’re going to get a goalie.  And with the cap space they free up from a DeBrincat swap, they’re likely to add a piece or two of note in free agency or by taking on a player in a trade.  I also expect the Penguins to find a way to get back in.  They have some cap flexibility this summer and while they have a few holes to fill with that money, I think they’ll be able to add a piece or two to help get them over the hump for a Wild Card position.  It wouldn’t shock me to see Buffalo get in there as well as their roster continues to improve and likely has a move or two to be made in the coming weeks.

In terms of who misses out, the Panthers come to mind.  I had this same concern with Boston last summer (and boy, was I wrong there) but I figured their injuries would cause them to struggle out of the gate and even though they’d be a playoff-caliber team, they’d have too much of a hill to climb by the time the team got healthy.  I could see this happening with Florida.  I’ll say the Islanders also just miss out.  Their desired style of play is good for keeping things close but they still lack an above-average attack and their back end could be weakened if Scott Mayfield can’t be retained.  They’ll be competitive but just miss out.  If Boston really has to blow things up, it wouldn’t shock me if they just missed out.  It also wouldn’t shock me if Tampa Bay, bereft of even more depth next season, gets bit by the injury bug and with a weaker roster, ultimately comes up short.

West: I have one team that I have a bit of confidence in that could get in and that’s Vancouver.  Thatcher Demko should be better.  Their offense is already strong.  I don’t think they’re going to leave their back end as is.  On paper, that roster should be a playoff-caliber group.  Calgary is going to be forced to sell, Nashville might be bottoming out, Arizona and Chicago should be better but not playoff-ready and Anaheim and San Jose aren’t close.  I guess St. Louis is my second team by default since I have to pick at least two but let’s just say I’m not typing this with much conviction.

Winnipeg is the logical team to be replaced as it sure feels like they, too, are heading for at least some sort of step back.  It’d be tough to move that much of their core and improve.  And if I have to pick a team for St. Louis to knock out, I guess it’d be Seattle.  There’s a fine line to navigate for teams built like they are.  When it works, they can be a handful but if a couple of players take a step back offensively, that could be the difference, especially with their question marks between the pipes.

PyramidHeadcrab: So what’s the deal with Sergei Bobrovsky? Every player has ups and downs, but this guy seems to swing wildly from Vezina caliber to $10MM paperweight. Has any other goalie in NHL history been so wildly inconsistent? And what might you surmise the reasoning behind it is? Injury? Personality? Poor coaching?

There’s a 33-point gap between Bobrovsky’s best year and worst in terms of save percentage.  That’s definitely on the high side.  My first instinct when I saw the comparables question was Ilya Bryzgalov but as erratic as he was, the gap in the prime of his career wasn’t anywhere close.  Tim Thomas also has a 33-point difference but I wouldn’t put him on the same scale of wild inconsistency.  Mike Smith went from .899 one year to .930 and then within a few years, was down to .904.  Objectively speaking, there’s probably someone whose year-to-year volatility is comparable to Bobrovsky but one doesn’t come to mind right away.  And even so, Bobrovsky’s game-to-game and even period-to-period variances still could make him unique.

He has had enough goalie coaches over his career that it’s probably not that.  I don’t think it’s injury-related either.  I think it’s a confidence thing.  Some players rattle easy and he might be one of them; a bad goal bugs him and eventually it nosedives into another bad one, then another, etc.  On the flip side, a few big saves beget a few more big saves and then he gets on a roll.  Goaltending is just a weird position and there isn’t necessarily a lot of predictability involved other than to say there shouldn’t be much in the way of predictability.  This JFresh article from 2020 (Bobrovsky’s first season with Florida) better describes the volatility of the position.  Bobrovsky manages to take that to a whole other level.

The Duke: Crystal Ball – Goaltenders Edition: Where do Gibson, Saros, UPL, and Hill play next season – and how successful will each be?

John Gibson – I guess the ball doesn’t get to say Anaheim anymore, does it?  Let’s go with Pittsburgh with the Ducks retaining a small percentage of the deal to get the net cost closer to $5.5MM.  Playing behind a better team with playoff aspirations, he adds 13 points to his save percentage of .899, giving the Penguins a net gain on their team save percentage and that’s enough of a difference to get them a few more wins in the standings.

Juuse Saros – Nashville is moving a lot of players but this is one of those cases where they’re not going to get a max return if they move him now.  Not with Connor Hellebuyck out there; there are only a handful of teams that will be willing to pay up for a true starter.  He might not finish the season there but he should start it there.  With a weaker group in front of him, he loses a few points off the .919 SV% he put up last season.  That’s still well above average but it probably won’t be enough to get a bunch of wins unless they wind up buying big after selling big.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – There’s a definite case to be made for Buffalo to add a goaltender and if they do, Luukkonen is probably going elsewhere.  But the ball sees them investigating the market and then deciding to go with Luukkonen and Levi to start, believing that if they need to make an in-season move to get a stabilizer between the pipes, they’ll be able to do so.  After putting up an .891 SV% this past season, Luukkonen winds up closer to the NHL average (which should be somewhere in the .905 range).

Adin Hill – Staying in Vegas seems like the most probable scenario, especially since it appears that he’s nearing an extension.  With a heavier workload than he’s used to having during the regular season, Hill’s SV% dips a few points from .915 to .911.

Red Wings: Panthers should have some cap space this summer. If they add one piece, should they target Bertuzzi or Orlov?

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion about the impending spending frenzy, Roman Josi’s future in Nashville, next week’s draft, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.  We also have one more to run from the most recent call for questions so it might be in there too.

jason830: Is Clayton Keller an option for the Blackhawks to trade for if he is available? Also, would pick 19 plus some prospects entice the Coyotes to trade him?

It’s fair to wonder if Arizona might be inclined to move Keller.  GM Bill Armstrong has said previously that he envisions the team being about halfway through the rebuild.  In other words, they’re a few years away from trying to contend.  Keller has five years left on his contract so three more non-playoff seasons would mean they’d be holding onto him for two years of hopeful contention.  Logically, you could sway me on moving him for someone that better fits their timeline.

That said, they wouldn’t be looking for draft picks to trade for him.  If they were, I expect they’d be aiming considerably higher.  Remember the Alex DeBrincat move from the draft last year?  I fully expect they’d be asking for more than that if they were moving Keller.

Chicago isn’t at the point yet where it’s time for them to start moving draft picks and trying to contend.  That’s the time for them to go after someone like Keller.  Arizona, meanwhile, is probably looking for players more than picks so I don’t think there’s a mutual fit for a trade.

NSco1996: Do you think the NHL will address the LTIR/No Salary Cap loophole to add better quality/more expensive depth at the deadline for the future playoffs? As a Blackhawks fan, it more notably seemed to have started with them in 2015 with Kane, 2021 Kucherov and Stamkos, 2023 Mark Stone. All three teams added good quality depth that they otherwise couldn’t afford with their high-price star not counting against the cap.

First, this isn’t just an NHL decision.  The salary cap and the rules that pertain to it are collectively bargained between the league and the NHLPA so any changes would need joint approval.  At first glance, I don’t think this a topic that’s going to be remotely near the top of the list for new Executive Director Marty Walsh to look at.  Frankly, I don’t think they’re upset about the loophole either as it allows players to go to a Cup contender that wouldn’t be able to otherwise which some would be quite happy about.

I also don’t think there’s much of an appetite from the teams to do something about it.  Yes, it’s a tiny loophole (which isn’t so small now as it has been exploited enough that you can drive an 18-wheeler through it) but at a time when many teams are cap-strapped, they’re probably not going to want to close something that they might need to rely on depending how their injury situation goes.  So if the league isn’t getting pushed to look at it and the NHLPA isn’t inclined to change it, it’s not going to get addressed.

For fun, though, let’s say they’re open to the idea.  How do you do it?  Do you put a rule in that says if a player is on LTIR after the trade deadline, they have to miss a certain number of playoff games?  That might seem like the easiest way to do it but what about the player who legitimately suffers a two-month injury right before the trade deadline, lining them up for a first-round return?  Such a rule might help eliminate some of the more overt exploitation but it might punish the teams who are legitimately in that situation with a valid injury timeline that matches the start of the postseason.  That probably isn’t going to get the support from NHL teams at the least.  As far as fixing it goes, it’s easier said than done.

WilfPaiement: Why do GMs continue to be their own worst enemy when it comes to a player’s worth? The latest example would potentially be Tyler Bertuzzi who reportedly is looking for term and $7 million a season.  His resume thus far tells me he would be 3 at 3 at best.  Anything after that is just plain dumb!!!!! Don Waddell recently stated he’s not against bringing back Pacioretty, just ridiculous. What kind of bad money will they throw at Toews and Kane?

This is pretty commonplace around professional sports.  Managers want to improve their team and when you have the same teams bidding for the same impact players, dumb moves are going to happen.  Add that to the expectation of a higher salary cap in the near future and it’s a guarantee that there are bad signings on their way next weekend.

As for Bertuzzi, your valuation of him would actually represent a cut in pay compared to what he has made in the past three seasons.  That’s probably not going to happen.  Yes, injuries are a valid concern and that will probably prevent him from getting what he’s asking.  But he’s asking for a contract that’s high enough to justify him not seeing what’s on the open market (where he’ll be one of the more sought-after players, no less).  He’s not taking himself off the free agent list for an underpayment; he might not even do it for a fair-market deal.  I don’t think there’s any chance he gets $7MM and I’m skeptical that he gets max term.  But right now, why not see if Boston is willing to play ball on one of those ends?  There isn’t much risk to doing so.

I have no problem with Waddell saying he’d be open to bringing back Max Pacioretty.  He didn’t say he’s open to bringing him back at $7MM again, just that they won’t close the door.  If Pacioretty winds up signing a one-year, bonus-laden contract, Carolina is a team that makes a lot of sense for him with the short-term cap space they have before so many regulars are up heading into 2023-24.  For the right price, that might be worth pursuing.

I don’t expect Toews to get a big-ticket contract.  If he decides to play next season, I think it will be a situational choice, one that allows him to play closer to home or try to chase one more Stanley Cup.  Those situations lend themselves toward a cheaper contract.  As for Kane, we’re in the middle of finalizing our upcoming Top 50 UFA list and while I won’t spoil the final number, I suspect you’ll find it above the value you think he should get.

GBear: If the Preds are going in a rebuild phase, doesn’t it make sense to move Josi? He’ll be on the downside of his career once the team becomes above average again, so why waste his prime years in a rebuild when you could get a huge return for him now?

Not every rebuild has to be a strip-it-down one with an extended buildup after that.  Going the route of trading Roman Josi would be the Predators tearing it down and starting a long-term rebuild.  Is that really what Barry Trotz signed up for when he takes over as GM next weekend?  I don’t know about that.  I’m not even certain that today’s trade is a sign in that direction; they might just be opening up flexibility to make a splash on the trade front at their hometown draft.

I’m also not convinced that the return would be as high as you might think it would be.  Look at San Jose and Erik Karlsson.  They’re the same age (born one day apart), are the top-scoring blueliners from the last two seasons, and are on long-term contracts.  And yet, what is the scuttlebutt around Karlsson?  To move him, the Sharks will need to retain a significant chunk of the deal and probably settle for an underwhelming return.

Yes, Karlsson makes roughly $2.5MM more but Josi has one more year left on his contract which doesn’t help his trade value.  If Nashville was going to consider seriously moving him, they’d be asked to retain a sizable chunk.  Even at $2MM per, that’s $10MM they’re paying for him not to play for the Preds.  Are they going to want to do that and tie up another retention slot long-term?  I’m not sure about that.  Even if they were, I think they’d get better offers than San Jose is for Karlsson but this is not a cap environment to move big money for big value.

If you’re moving big-ticket contracts right now, the cap space is a big part of the return, likely bigger than the asset value you’re getting back.  And if that’s all you’re going to get for Josi, holding onto him might be the smarter play.  There are only so many teams that can afford to be in on Karlsson and when goes, that list will get even smaller.  Accordingly, this might not be the best spot to move him.

Schwa: With speculation of Konecny being moved by Flyers, and it seeming like they are willing to retain salary, could you see the Rangers making an offer here/the teams working out an in-division move? Konecny plays a scrappy two-way game and is a solidified top-6 RW. Seems to fit Rangers’ needs if he can be had for the right price. 1st and a prospect for Konecny with 30% retained by PHI? Thanks!

I don’t think Philadelphia is in a spot to turn down better offers just to avoid moving him to a division rival, especially if they’re looking to bottom out for the remaining term of Travis Konecny’s contract.  If the Rangers were to make an offer and it was the best one, they’d do it.

Having said that, I’m not sure that New York would make a legitimate offer for him.  They have around $11.7MM to work with right now, per CapFriendly.  With that, they need to re-sign Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller, sign a backup goalie, and probably another defenseman and at least three more forwards.  As it is, they probably need to try to offload Barclay Goodrow just to accomplish that, let alone add Konecny, even at a reduced rate.  (And no, putting Goodrow into the trade won’t solve that problem as the Rangers would need to incentivize the Flyers to take that deal on.)

As for your proposal, it depends on the prospect.  From Philadelphia’s perspective, if they’re retaining 30% for two years, it better be an ‘A’ player, one of New York’s best.  Otherwise, they’re probably going to pass on an offer like that in search of a stronger one.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include finding a way for Vegas to try to re-sign Ivan Barbashev, goalies to watch for in the upcoming draft, and much more.  With so many questions being submitted (thanks, as always, for sending them in), we’ll run two more mailbags from our recent callout.  They’ll be run between now and the end of next weekend so if your question doesn’t appear here, be sure to check those ones when they come out.

Emoney123: Petersen making $5MM as a backup to Hart’s $3MM? Two #1 picks this year and next with Gauthier, Brink, Foerster hopefully coming up and a relatively young roster, are brighter days right around the corner? Flyers back in the Playoffs next season!

I’m intrigued to see if Cal Petersen gets a real shot to be Carter Hart’s backup or if they’ll treat him as a sunk cost and bury him in Lehigh Valley.  I think he can be a lot better than he was this past season and if they are able to get him performing at the NHL level next season, perhaps there’s a chance to salvage a bit of value from him in 2024-25.

Are brighter days ahead?  Sure.  Their prospect pool is improving and as you noted, they’re getting two more first-rounders in a week and a half that’s going to make it stronger.  If they choose correctly with those selections, they could have a good foundation to work off of in a few years.

But making the playoffs next season feels like a bit of a pipe dream.  They just moved one of their better defensemen in Ivan Provorov for futures.  By all accounts, Travis Konecny is in play, their leading scorer.  Kevin Hayes seems like a strong trade candidate.  Hart has been drawing interest.  These are not statements that should be associated with a team looking to make the playoffs next season.  These are statements about a team that’s looking to finish at or near the bottom of the standings.

jchancel: Given the NY Rangers’ cap issues, what are the alternatives? Give up Goodrow, Mikkola, Motte. Keeping one of Kane or Tarasenko?

Promote Othmann and Cullye? Does that alleviate some of the problem?

I mentioned the importance of moving Barclay Goodrow in their recent Offseason Checklist.  It’s not that he’s a bad player, he’s just a luxury they can no longer afford at just over $3.64MM for the next four seasons.  They have around $11.7MM in cap space per CapFriendly but more than half of that is going to be allocated to re-signing Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller.  That leaves enough to sign a bunch of players for close to the minimum to round out the roster but that is also going to result in a significant talent drain.

Among the UFAs, I expect Niko Mikkola will go elsewhere to a team that will be able to afford him.  I’m not certain Tyler Motte walks though.  His market wasn’t great last summer which frankly surprised me.  His performance this past season wasn’t significantly better either so it stands to reason his market won’t be the strongest this time either.  If that’s the case, would he accept a multi-year deal around the $1MM range, getting some stability after being on the move a lot in recent years?  I think New York could find a way to make that work.  I’d be stunned if either of Patrick Kane or Vladimir Tarasenko return unless a significant contract is on the way out.

I do expect both Brennan Othmann and William Cullye to see regular action next season.  Othmann had a nice playoff and Memorial Cup run and plays a rugged style that makes him work in the bottom six to start, allowing him to potentially ease into a more important role over time.  Cullye had a fine rookie year in Hartford and also fits nicely into a bottom six group that I anticipate will have a physical edge to it.  Perhaps they’re not full-timers (especially if GM Chris Drury wants them to see some time in scoring roles) but they’ll be factors on the roster next season.

@HolgerStolzen1: Hey Brian,

I’m trying to figure out a way for the Golden Knights to re-sign Ivan Barbashev in the off-season, but not sure it’s possible. I’m already going with the assumption that they re-sign Adin Hill and find a way to move out Lehner. Any chance we can bring back Barbashev?

Hey Holger, always nice to hear from a former PHR teammate.

Let’s dig into those assumptions first.  Adin Hill’s strong playoff run is going to earn him a nice raise.  Let’s peg him at $4MM.  I’m not as optimistic as you are that they’ll find a way to move Robin Lehner but I’ll play along.  Him coming off the books saves them $5MM which gives them a little over $4MM in cap room, per CapFriendly’s numbers.  That’s not going to be enough to keep Ivan Barbashev.

However, there are two options where they can trim payroll.  The first is trying to incentivize a team to take on Alec Martinez’s contract.  The 35-year-old can still play but his days as a core blueliner are probably done.  His trade protection dips to eight teams on July 1st so there might be a move to be made on that front.  That would more than free up enough cap space to re-sign Barbashev and pending RFA Brett Howden between his $5MM and their existing space.  That’s Plan A.

Plan B might come as a bit of a surprise but I’d kick the tires on the trade market for Nicolas Roy.  $3MM for a third center isn’t bad by any stretch but it is a luxury in this cap environment.  Some teams can afford it and with the market for middlemen not being great, I think Vegas would get a good return in a trade.  Take half of that money added to their cap room and that might get Barbashev done.  The other half goes to Howden with Ben Hutton being waived in training camp to make up the rest of Howden’s money.  Kaedan Korzcak then near-daily appearances on this site in shuffles to and from Henderson to bank some cap space and give them a bit of in-season room.  They’d be carrying a minimum-sized roster, however, though they’re certainly used to that.

So, yeah, I think there’s a chance they can bring him back and the fact they can offer an eighth year certainly helps on that front.  I’m not sure I’d predict that particular outcome but there’s a pathway to do it.

aka.nda: Semi-related.. thinking about Logan Thompson.. // Brossoit.. Hill. What’s Vegas gonna do with their goalie situation?

Let’s do the easy ones first.  Logan Thompson stays.  He’s on a contract that’s below the league minimum AAV making him arguably the best bargain contract for any NHL goalie next season.  They’re not moving him.  As for Laurent Brossoit, I don’t think he comes back.  Has he really helped his value since joining them two years ago?  I don’t think so.  There are teams that will view him more as a third-string option and while he might get a one-way deal backing up somewhere, I think Vegas needs someone more capable of playing a heavier workload.

Let’s talk about the one not on this list, Lehner.  If he’s going to be ruled healthy to play next season, I think he stays in Vegas and that his trade market would be next to non-existent.  Generally speaking, if a goalie misses the entire year and is suddenly declared healthy, I think teams are going to react one way – ‘prove it’.  To have trade value, he needs to play and if he’s on their active roster, there’s no possible way that they can afford to bring Hill back.  At that point, you’re pivoting to an above-average third-stringer and paying him $1MM to start in Henderson and be available in case Lehner isn’t healthy.

But if Lehner can’t recover and is heading for LTIR, then I suspect the Golden Knights will take a serious run at trying to keep Hill.  I mentioned $4MM as a rough price point in the previous question so I’ll stick with that here.  Maybe three years at that cost gets it done?  With just 101 regular season games under his belt, he doesn’t have a long-term track record that will push him into true number one money and that deal feels like a reasonable one for both sides.  It would give Hill some stability while allowing Vegas to keep their goalie costs in check knowing that Chandler Stephenson is heading for a big-ticket deal next summer while Thompson will need a new contract as well.

SkidRowe: What could the Bruins get for Linus Ullmark? A soon to be 30 yo Vezina trophy winner signed for 2 more years at a reasonable $5 million?

The additions of Connor Hellebuyck and even John Gibson to the trade market don’t help Boston here if this is the route they’re going to go.  Ullmark had a great year, no question and is absolutely well-deserving of the Vezina should he get it as expected.  But will teams call his performance a byproduct of their system?  If so, he won’t be viewed as highly.

Will teams view Ullmark as a top-ten goalie in their system?  I’m not certain they will and the offers will be lower accordingly.  Could they get a first-round pick for him?  Possibly, but it would be at the back of the first round.  Not a lot of netminders have fetched first-round picks recently.  They’d probably need to take a goalie back which would limit the cap savings.  Maybe there’s a prospect involved but it wouldn’t be an ‘A’ player.

In a follow-up comment, you noted you wouldn’t move him unless you were getting a pair of first-rounders or a young top-six center.  As well as Ullmark played this season, I don’t think he gets that.  I don’t think Jeremy Swayman would yield a pair of first-rounders either (and I feel he’d have the higher trade value being younger with more years of team control).  I don’t expect an extended Hellebuyck to bring that type of return and even though his cap hit will be higher, his track record would look better in the eyes of interested teams which might make him more sought-after than Ullmark.

I like the player and I like the contract.  But it has been a long time since a goalie has yielded a return that makes people go ‘wow’ in terms of the haul being significantly strong.  I don’t think Ullmark will buck that trend if he’s made available.

joebad34: Who are the next potential goalies coming into this year’s draft that may be targeted as a future starter?

Let’s get this out of the way first.  I’m not a particularly strong scout when it comes to watching skaters.  When it comes to goalies, it’s even worse.  Just keep that in mind as you read this answer.

I’m not sure there is a true number one goalie in this draft class.  By number one goalie, I mean a 50-plus game starter year after year that is the undisputed go-to guy in the playoffs.  But, frankly, how many of those are around nowadays?  As teams gravitate more toward platoons as cost-saving options, they will find value in those netminders.  And I think there are certainly a few of those platoon/1B players in this draft.

At the top, there’s Michael Hrabal, a very tall goalie, one element scouts really love in their netminders.  His stock has steadily been on the rise but I think his development path will be a bit slower than others on this list.  Adam Gajan is a re-entry player that hasn’t gone a traditional route but I really liked him at the World Juniors and I could see him having some pro success.  Trey Augustine is on the smaller side for a goalie (6’1) but based on how he has fared in the US NTDP, I see no reason to think he can’t succeed in the NHL.  Carson Bjarnason is probably the top option from Canada after a decent showing in his first season as a full-fledged starter.

Hrabal, Augustine, and Bjarnason should all go in the second round; I’ve seen some speculate that Hrabal could crack the late first round.  Gajan is a bit of a wild card given his second-time status but he should go fairly early among the goalies.  I’m curious to see where Scott Ratzlaff goes, he wound up as the backup in WHL Seattle this season behind Thomas Milic (a third-year eligible who’s also on the smaller side for a goalie) but I could see him being a value pick as Ratzlaff will take over as the starter next season on a team that’s likely to allow a lot of shots as a lot of their Memorial Cup roster will move on.  but I think he could be one of the better goalies from this class even though he’s not among the top few options on most lists.

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