PHR Mailbag

PHR Mailbag: Keller, Salary Cap, Free Agents, Josi, Konecny, Draft, Rulebook

June 24, 2023 at 2:53 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion about the impending spending frenzy, Roman Josi’s future in Nashville, next week’s draft, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag. We also have one more to run from the most recent call for questions so it might be in there too.

jason830: Is Clayton Keller an option for the Blackhawks to trade for if he is available? Also, would pick 19 plus some prospects entice the Coyotes to trade him?

It’s fair to wonder if Arizona might be inclined to move Keller. GM Bill Armstrong has said previously that he envisions the team being about halfway through the rebuild. In other words, they’re a few years away from trying to contend. Keller has five years left on his contract so three more non-playoff seasons would mean they’d be holding onto him for two years of hopeful contention. Logically, you could sway me on moving him for someone that better fits their timeline.

That said, they wouldn’t be looking for draft picks to trade for him. If they were, I expect they’d be aiming considerably higher. Remember the Alex DeBrincat move from the draft last year? I fully expect they’d be asking for more than that if they were moving Keller.

Chicago isn’t at the point yet where it’s time for them to start moving draft picks and trying to contend. That’s the time for them to go after someone like Keller. Arizona, meanwhile, is probably looking for players more than picks so I don’t think there’s a mutual fit for a trade.

NSco1996: Do you think the NHL will address the LTIR/No Salary Cap loophole to add better quality/more expensive depth at the deadline for the future playoffs? As a Blackhawks fan, it more notably seemed to have started with them in 2015 with Kane, 2021 Kucherov and Stamkos, 2023 Mark Stone. All three teams added good quality depth that they otherwise couldn’t afford with their high-price star not counting against the cap.

First, this isn’t just an NHL decision. The salary cap and the rules that pertain to it are collectively bargained between the league and the NHLPA so any changes would need joint approval. At first glance, I don’t think this a topic that’s going to be remotely near the top of the list for new Executive Director Marty Walsh to look at. Frankly, I don’t think they’re upset about the loophole either as it allows players to go to a Cup contender that wouldn’t be able to otherwise which some would be quite happy about.

I also don’t think there’s much of an appetite from the teams to do something about it. Yes, it’s a tiny loophole (which isn’t so small now as it has been exploited enough that you can drive an 18-wheeler through it) but at a time when many teams are cap-strapped, they’re probably not going to want to close something that they might need to rely on depending how their injury situation goes. So if the league isn’t getting pushed to look at it and the NHLPA isn’t inclined to change it, it’s not going to get addressed.

For fun, though, let’s say they’re open to the idea. How do you do it? Do you put a rule in that says if a player is on LTIR after the trade deadline, they have to miss a certain number of playoff games? That might seem like the easiest way to do it but what about the player who legitimately suffers a two-month injury right before the trade deadline, lining them up for a first-round return? Such a rule might help eliminate some of the more overt exploitation but it might punish the teams who are legitimately in that situation with a valid injury timeline that matches the start of the postseason. That probably isn’t going to get the support from NHL teams at the least. As far as fixing it goes, it’s easier said than done.

WilfPaiement: Why do GMs continue to be their own worst enemy when it comes to a player’s worth? The latest example would potentially be Tyler Bertuzzi who reportedly is looking for term and $7 million a season. His resume thus far tells me he would be 3 at 3 at best. Anything after that is just plain dumb!!!!! Don Waddell recently stated he’s not against bringing back Pacioretty, just ridiculous. What kind of bad money will they throw at Toews and Kane?

This is pretty commonplace around professional sports. Managers want to improve their team and when you have the same teams bidding for the same impact players, dumb moves are going to happen. Add that to the expectation of a higher salary cap in the near future and it’s a guarantee that there are bad signings on their way next weekend.

As for Bertuzzi, your valuation of him would actually represent a cut in pay compared to what he has made in the past three seasons. That’s probably not going to happen. Yes, injuries are a valid concern and that will probably prevent him from getting what he’s asking. But he’s asking for a contract that’s high enough to justify him not seeing what’s on the open market (where he’ll be one of the more sought-after players, no less). He’s not taking himself off the free agent list for an underpayment; he might not even do it for a fair-market deal. I don’t think there’s any chance he gets $7MM and I’m skeptical that he gets max term. But right now, why not see if Boston is willing to play ball on one of those ends? There isn’t much risk to doing so.

I have no problem with Waddell saying he’d be open to bringing back Max Pacioretty. He didn’t say he’s open to bringing him back at $7MM again, just that they won’t close the door. If Pacioretty winds up signing a one-year, bonus-laden contract, Carolina is a team that makes a lot of sense for him with the short-term cap space they have before so many regulars are up heading into 2023-24. For the right price, that might be worth pursuing.

I don’t expect Toews to get a big-ticket contract. If he decides to play next season, I think it will be a situational choice, one that allows him to play closer to home or try to chase one more Stanley Cup. Those situations lend themselves toward a cheaper contract. As for Kane, we’re in the middle of finalizing our upcoming Top 50 UFA list and while I won’t spoil the final number, I suspect you’ll find it above the value you think he should get.

GBear: If the Preds are going in a rebuild phase, doesn’t it make sense to move Josi? He’ll be on the downside of his career once the team becomes above average again, so why waste his prime years in a rebuild when you could get a huge return for him now?

Not every rebuild has to be a strip-it-down one with an extended buildup after that. Going the route of trading Roman Josi would be the Predators tearing it down and starting a long-term rebuild. Is that really what Barry Trotz signed up for when he takes over as GM next weekend? I don’t know about that. I’m not even certain that today’s trade is a sign in that direction; they might just be opening up flexibility to make a splash on the trade front at their hometown draft.

I’m also not convinced that the return would be as high as you might think it would be. Look at San Jose and Erik Karlsson. They’re the same age (born one day apart), are the top-scoring blueliners from the last two seasons, and are on long-term contracts. And yet, what is the scuttlebutt around Karlsson? To move him, the Sharks will need to retain a significant chunk of the deal and probably settle for an underwhelming return.

Yes, Karlsson makes roughly $2.5MM more but Josi has one more year left on his contract which doesn’t help his trade value. If Nashville was going to consider seriously moving him, they’d be asked to retain a sizable chunk. Even at $2MM per, that’s $10MM they’re paying for him not to play for the Preds. Are they going to want to do that and tie up another retention slot long-term? I’m not sure about that. Even if they were, I think they’d get better offers than San Jose is for Karlsson but this is not a cap environment to move big money for big value.

If you’re moving big-ticket contracts right now, the cap space is a big part of the return, likely bigger than the asset value you’re getting back. And if that’s all you’re going to get for Josi, holding onto him might be the smarter play. There are only so many teams that can afford to be in on Karlsson and when goes, that list will get even smaller. Accordingly, this might not be the best spot to move him.

Schwa: With speculation of Konecny being moved by Flyers, and it seeming like they are willing to retain salary, could you see the Rangers making an offer here/the teams working out an in-division move? Konecny plays a scrappy two-way game and is a solidified top-6 RW. Seems to fit Rangers’ needs if he can be had for the right price. 1st and a prospect for Konecny with 30% retained by PHI? Thanks!

I don’t think Philadelphia is in a spot to turn down better offers just to avoid moving him to a division rival, especially if they’re looking to bottom out for the remaining term of Travis Konecny’s contract. If the Rangers were to make an offer and it was the best one, they’d do it.

Having said that, I’m not sure that New York would make a legitimate offer for him. They have around $11.7MM to work with right now, per CapFriendly. With that, they need to re-sign Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller, sign a backup goalie, and probably another defenseman and at least three more forwards. As it is, they probably need to try to offload Barclay Goodrow just to accomplish that, let alone add Konecny, even at a reduced rate. (And no, putting Goodrow into the trade won’t solve that problem as the Rangers would need to incentivize the Flyers to take that deal on.)

As for your proposal, it depends on the prospect. From Philadelphia’s perspective, if they’re retaining 30% for two years, it better be an ‘A’ player, one of New York’s best. Otherwise, they’re probably going to pass on an offer like that in search of a stronger one.

mhaftman7: Who falls the furthest in the draft? Who is taken early?

I’m going to assume this question pertains to who falls and goes early relative to their recent rankings. Otherwise, the top few picks are pretty well known and I might have a better chance at picking lottery numbers than guessing who the final few picks will be.

For who goes earlier than expected, Swedish defenseman Tom Willander comes to mind. Several of the rankings (which can be seen by clicking his profile link) have him around the 20s. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the second defenseman off the board in the 10-13 range. Then there’s Danish middleman Oscar Fisker Molgaard. Many rankings have him in the middle of the second round but he turned some heads last month at the World Championship. Even though he didn’t put up any points, he didn’t look out of place either. It wouldn’t shock me to see him go in the 20s.

As for the fallers, I’ll stick to first-round options. Russian blueliner Dmitri Simashev seems like a candidate for this category. Some rankings have him as a top-ten prospect but with the extra uncertainty surrounding players from Russia, he could slide to the back of the first round if not out of the round altogether. (Mikhail Gulyayev is another candidate in that situation.) Then there’s Eduard Sale. The Czech winger came into the season as a possible top-five selection but things have gone the wrong way since then. Some rankings have him in the late lottery but it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s within the final ten picks of the round.

aka.nda: So, what’s the current status of throwing rats and water bottles onto the ice, rules-wise? I kinda dig the rats after the game or maybe on an actual hat trick, but isn’t it “banned” during the game? I agree with Eddie about the water bottles.

Let’s look at the Rulebook, section 63.5:

In the event that objects are thrown on the ice that interfere with the progress of the game, the Referee shall blow the whistle and stop the play and the puck shall be faced-off at a face-off spot in the zone nearest to the spot where play is stopped. When objects are thrown on the ice during a stoppage in play, including after the scoring of a goal, the Referee shall have announced over the public address system that any further occurrences will result in a bench minor penalty being assessed to the home Team. Articles thrown onto the ice following a special occasion (i.e. hat trick) will not result in a bench minor penalty being assessed. Refer also to Rule 53.7 when spectator interference occurs during a breakaway.

Officially, it’s not really banned, just not encouraged. They’ll blow the whistle and issue a warning from there and only if it’s repeated could it result in a penalty. I’ve seen the warning be issued before but I can’t recall ever seeing a penalty called for it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Flyers, Rangers, Golden Knights, Ullmark, Draft, UFA Leverage

June 17, 2023 at 1:43 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include finding a way for Vegas to try to re-sign Ivan Barbashev, goalies to watch for in the upcoming draft, and much more. With so many questions being submitted (thanks, as always, for sending them in), we’ll run two more mailbags from our recent callout. They’ll be run between now and the end of next weekend so if your question doesn’t appear here, be sure to check those ones when they come out.

Emoney123: Petersen making $5MM as a backup to Hart’s $3MM? Two #1 picks this year and next with Gauthier, Brink, Foerster hopefully coming up and a relatively young roster, are brighter days right around the corner? Flyers back in the Playoffs next season!

I’m intrigued to see if Cal Petersen gets a real shot to be Carter Hart’s backup or if they’ll treat him as a sunk cost and bury him in Lehigh Valley. I think he can be a lot better than he was this past season and if they are able to get him performing at the NHL level next season, perhaps there’s a chance to salvage a bit of value from him in 2024-25.

Are brighter days ahead? Sure. Their prospect pool is improving and as you noted, they’re getting two more first-rounders in a week and a half that’s going to make it stronger. If they choose correctly with those selections, they could have a good foundation to work off of in a few years.

But making the playoffs next season feels like a bit of a pipe dream. They just moved one of their better defensemen in Ivan Provorov for futures. By all accounts, Travis Konecny is in play, their leading scorer. Kevin Hayes seems like a strong trade candidate. Hart has been drawing interest. These are not statements that should be associated with a team looking to make the playoffs next season. These are statements about a team that’s looking to finish at or near the bottom of the standings.

jchancel: Given the NY Rangers’ cap issues, what are the alternatives? Give up Goodrow, Mikkola, Motte. Keeping one of Kane or Tarasenko?

Promote Othmann and Cullye? Does that alleviate some of the problem?

I mentioned the importance of moving Barclay Goodrow in their recent Offseason Checklist. It’s not that he’s a bad player, he’s just a luxury they can no longer afford at just over $3.64MM for the next four seasons. They have around $11.7MM in cap space per CapFriendly but more than half of that is going to be allocated to re-signing Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller. That leaves enough to sign a bunch of players for close to the minimum to round out the roster but that is also going to result in a significant talent drain.

Among the UFAs, I expect Niko Mikkola will go elsewhere to a team that will be able to afford him. I’m not certain Tyler Motte walks though. His market wasn’t great last summer which frankly surprised me. His performance this past season wasn’t significantly better either so it stands to reason his market won’t be the strongest this time either. If that’s the case, would he accept a multi-year deal around the $1MM range, getting some stability after being on the move a lot in recent years? I think New York could find a way to make that work. I’d be stunned if either of Patrick Kane or Vladimir Tarasenko return unless a significant contract is on the way out.

I do expect both Brennan Othmann and William Cullye to see regular action next season. Othmann had a nice playoff and Memorial Cup run and plays a rugged style that makes him work in the bottom six to start, allowing him to potentially ease into a more important role over time. Cullye had a fine rookie year in Hartford and also fits nicely into a bottom six group that I anticipate will have a physical edge to it. Perhaps they’re not full-timers (especially if GM Chris Drury wants them to see some time in scoring roles) but they’ll be factors on the roster next season.

@HolgerStolzen1: Hey Brian,

I’m trying to figure out a way for the Golden Knights to re-sign Ivan Barbashev in the off-season, but not sure it’s possible. I’m already going with the assumption that they re-sign Adin Hill and find a way to move out Lehner. Any chance we can bring back Barbashev?

Hey Holger, always nice to hear from a former PHR teammate.

Let’s dig into those assumptions first. Adin Hill’s strong playoff run is going to earn him a nice raise. Let’s peg him at $4MM. I’m not as optimistic as you are that they’ll find a way to move Robin Lehner but I’ll play along. Him coming off the books saves them $5MM which gives them a little over $4MM in cap room, per CapFriendly’s numbers. That’s not going to be enough to keep Ivan Barbashev.

However, there are two options where they can trim payroll. The first is trying to incentivize a team to take on Alec Martinez’s contract. The 35-year-old can still play but his days as a core blueliner are probably done. His trade protection dips to eight teams on July 1st so there might be a move to be made on that front. That would more than free up enough cap space to re-sign Barbashev and pending RFA Brett Howden between his $5MM and their existing space. That’s Plan A.

Plan B might come as a bit of a surprise but I’d kick the tires on the trade market for Nicolas Roy. $3MM for a third center isn’t bad by any stretch but it is a luxury in this cap environment. Some teams can afford it and with the market for middlemen not being great, I think Vegas would get a good return in a trade. Take half of that money added to their cap room and that might get Barbashev done. The other half goes to Howden with Ben Hutton being waived in training camp to make up the rest of Howden’s money. Kaedan Korzcak then near-daily appearances on this site in shuffles to and from Henderson to bank some cap space and give them a bit of in-season room. They’d be carrying a minimum-sized roster, however, though they’re certainly used to that.

So, yeah, I think there’s a chance they can bring him back and the fact they can offer an eighth year certainly helps on that front. I’m not sure I’d predict that particular outcome but there’s a pathway to do it.

aka.nda: Semi-related.. thinking about Logan Thompson.. // Brossoit.. Hill. What’s Vegas gonna do with their goalie situation?

Let’s do the easy ones first. Logan Thompson stays. He’s on a contract that’s below the league minimum AAV making him arguably the best bargain contract for any NHL goalie next season. They’re not moving him. As for Laurent Brossoit, I don’t think he comes back. Has he really helped his value since joining them two years ago? I don’t think so. There are teams that will view him more as a third-string option and while he might get a one-way deal backing up somewhere, I think Vegas needs someone more capable of playing a heavier workload.

Let’s talk about the one not on this list, Lehner. If he’s going to be ruled healthy to play next season, I think he stays in Vegas and that his trade market would be next to non-existent. Generally speaking, if a goalie misses the entire year and is suddenly declared healthy, I think teams are going to react one way – ‘prove it’. To have trade value, he needs to play and if he’s on their active roster, there’s no possible way that they can afford to bring Hill back. At that point, you’re pivoting to an above-average third-stringer and paying him $1MM to start in Henderson and be available in case Lehner isn’t healthy.

But if Lehner can’t recover and is heading for LTIR, then I suspect the Golden Knights will take a serious run at trying to keep Hill. I mentioned $4MM as a rough price point in the previous question so I’ll stick with that here. Maybe three years at that cost gets it done? With just 101 regular season games under his belt, he doesn’t have a long-term track record that will push him into true number one money and that deal feels like a reasonable one for both sides. It would give Hill some stability while allowing Vegas to keep their goalie costs in check knowing that Chandler Stephenson is heading for a big-ticket deal next summer while Thompson will need a new contract as well.

SkidRowe: What could the Bruins get for Linus Ullmark? A soon to be 30 yo Vezina trophy winner signed for 2 more years at a reasonable $5 million?

The additions of Connor Hellebuyck and even John Gibson to the trade market don’t help Boston here if this is the route they’re going to go. Ullmark had a great year, no question and is absolutely well-deserving of the Vezina should he get it as expected. But will teams call his performance a byproduct of their system? If so, he won’t be viewed as highly.

Will teams view Ullmark as a top-ten goalie in their system? I’m not certain they will and the offers will be lower accordingly. Could they get a first-round pick for him? Possibly, but it would be at the back of the first round. Not a lot of netminders have fetched first-round picks recently. They’d probably need to take a goalie back which would limit the cap savings. Maybe there’s a prospect involved but it wouldn’t be an ‘A’ player.

In a follow-up comment, you noted you wouldn’t move him unless you were getting a pair of first-rounders or a young top-six center. As well as Ullmark played this season, I don’t think he gets that. I don’t think Jeremy Swayman would yield a pair of first-rounders either (and I feel he’d have the higher trade value being younger with more years of team control). I don’t expect an extended Hellebuyck to bring that type of return and even though his cap hit will be higher, his track record would look better in the eyes of interested teams which might make him more sought-after than Ullmark.

I like the player and I like the contract. But it has been a long time since a goalie has yielded a return that makes people go ‘wow’ in terms of the haul being significantly strong. I don’t think Ullmark will buck that trend if he’s made available.

joebad34: Who are the next potential goalies coming into this year’s draft that may be targeted as a future starter?

Let’s get this out of the way first. I’m not a particularly strong scout when it comes to watching skaters. When it comes to goalies, it’s even worse. Just keep that in mind as you read this answer.

I’m not sure there is a true number one goalie in this draft class. By number one goalie, I mean a 50-plus game starter year after year that is the undisputed go-to guy in the playoffs. But, frankly, how many of those are around nowadays? As teams gravitate more toward platoons as cost-saving options, they will find value in those netminders. And I think there are certainly a few of those platoon/1B players in this draft.

At the top, there’s Michael Hrabal, a very tall goalie, one element scouts really love in their netminders. His stock has steadily been on the rise but I think his development path will be a bit slower than others on this list. Adam Gajan is a re-entry player that hasn’t gone a traditional route but I really liked him at the World Juniors and I could see him having some pro success. Trey Augustine is on the smaller side for a goalie (6’1) but based on how he has fared in the US NTDP, I see no reason to think he can’t succeed in the NHL. Carson Bjarnason is probably the top option from Canada after a decent showing in his first season as a full-fledged starter.

Hrabal, Augustine, and Bjarnason should all go in the second round; I’ve seen some speculate that Hrabal could crack the late first round. Gajan is a bit of a wild card given his second-time status but he should go fairly early among the goalies. I’m curious to see where Scott Ratzlaff goes, he wound up as the backup in WHL Seattle this season behind Thomas Milic (a third-year eligible who’s also on the smaller side for a goalie) but I could see him being a value pick as Ratzlaff will take over as the starter next season on a team that’s likely to allow a lot of shots as a lot of their Memorial Cup roster will move on. but I think he could be one of the better goalies from this class even though he’s not among the top few options on most lists.

dano62: Who are the next players after Dubois to flex their impending UFA status to force a trade? Do you see Pettersson as doing that during this season (he’s an RFA after 2024, UFA after 2025)

There are two other players who are effectively doing this right now, Ottawa’s Alex DeBrincat and Calgary’s Noah Hanifin. DeBrincat has given the Senators a list of teams he’d be willing to do a long-term contract with and is basically following the playbook of Matthew Tkachuk last summer. Ottawa protected themselves a little bit by electing for cut-down arbitration which could save them a bit of money if he’s still on the roster next season and if it comes to an in-season trade, the lower the AAV, the easier it is to make a move. But it sure seems like the long-term contract that’s eventually coming will be from someone other than the Sens.

As for Hanifin, recent reports indicate that he is unwilling to sign an extension with the Flames. He’s not exactly in the same situation as Dubois, DeBrincat, or Tkachuk last year who were entering their last RFA-eligible year as next season will be his second of what would have been UFA-eligible campaigns but still, close enough. This feels like another situation where he will give GM Craig Conroy a shortlist of teams that he’d sign long-term with and from there, it’ll be up to Conroy to extract the most value.

I don’t think Elias Pettersson will go that route. Things haven’t gone great for Vancouver lately but his agent mentioned on the Got Yer Back podcast (audio link) a couple of weeks ago that they’re going to engage on extension talks this summer. That’s not what someone looking to force a trade would be willing to do. Now, if those discussions go sideways and it’s another year to forget for the Canucks, perhaps that changes but I’m expecting a max-term extension around the $10MM mark to come down the pipe for him.

Gmm8811: Just wondering what the latest news is on the Hockey Canada investigation into the alleged 2018 sexual assault is and where the investigation stands? Has the NHL become involved? Thoughts on ramifications if accusations are proven true?

Black Ace57: My question too is if there is a lot of trade talk/activity around players who were on that team is that any indication that they have been cleared or there is an idea behind the scenes they will be?

WilfPaiement: Latest news on Alex Formenton, is he going to be in the NHL this season? Is Ottawa going to sign him?

Let’s group these three together as they’re all related. In May, Hockey Canada turned over its findings of the third-party report to the London Police Services. As of yet, I don’t think London’s subsequent investigation has been completed. Meanwhile, the NHL’s independent investigation has been concluded, according to Gary Bettman at his press conference at the Stanley Cup Final. That report is expected to be presented to the league early this summer.

Until all investigations and reports are completed, I don’t expect any sort of trade activity involving players from that team (including Formenton). If the evidence and testimonials are compelling enough to the point of being actionable (either through charges being laid and/or discipline being handed down by the league), it would likely have a material impact on the value of those players. Teams will want to see the outcome of those investigations before deciding about potentially acquiring them (or in Ottawa’s case, re-signing Formenton after he spent the second half of the season in Switzerland).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

June 14, 2023 at 6:45 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 46 Comments

The Vegas Golden Knights ended the playoffs on Tuesday with a 9-3 win over Florida, giving them their first Stanley Cup in their short franchise history.

With the offseason now officially underway, it’s time for a final edition of the #PHRMailbag before the draft and free agency begin. Teams are already gearing up to participate in the trade market, and the news cycle is getting busier each day.

Our last mailbag covered what the Detroit Red Wings could do to push themselves over the hump next season, how the Edmonton Oilers move forward from here, and the Central Division trade market.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

PHR Mailbag: Red Wings, Oilers, Predators, Addison, Hellebuyck, Senators, Draft, Injuries

May 28, 2023 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 6 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some possible targets for Detroit this summer, what’s next for Ottawa, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbags.

gowings2008: Could Ryan O’Reilly be a realistic top 6C option for Detroit on a short 2-3-year deal?

This is a scenario I briefly talked about in a mailbag last month. It makes a lot of sense on a few fronts. First, the UFA market isn’t great, especially if the Boston veterans either re-sign with the Bruins or retire; it’d be stunning to see either of them go elsewhere. With them out of the picture, O’Reilly is one of the top middlemen available on the open market.

Second, he fits the type of veteran that GM Steve Yzerman seems to like – players that I call bridge veterans. These are short-term additions that provide a short-term improvement to the roster while allowing prospects more time in the minors to develop. Throughout his tenure in Detroit, these have largely been the types of players that Yzerman has targeted.

The question is whether O’Reilly will accept a short-term agreement or if he uses the market to his advantage and can secure a longer-term pact. At 32, it’s not unthinkable that he could get a five-year contract and if the bidding drives the deal to that length, Detroit would be wise to stay away. O’Reilly fits for Detroit as long as it’s a short-term contract. Otherwise, he shouldn’t get much consideration.

tigers22 2: Which players will be available for trade during the offseason that the Red Wings could look to acquire to put some more pucks in the net?

It’s a pretty long list, probably longer than I can get into here. With a lot teams likely looking to get out of a contract or two, there could be some pretty good forwards made available at a discount. That’s the market I’d be looking in which again ties in nicely with their bridge veteran approach. Here are a few names to keep an eye on out of that group.

Brock Boeser (Vancouver) – While Boeser has made it known that he wants to stay, his contract is one that the Canucks would likely want to get out of. He has two years left at $6.65MM and has four seasons of 20-plus goals under his belt while just coming up short of that this season. Vancouver simply has to move someone out to free up money and if Detroit is willing to absorb that contract (and they certainly have the cap space to do so), then he’d be a nice buy-low add that would immediately bolster their winger depth.

Andrew Mangiapane (Calgary) – It’s unclear if new GM Craig Conroy will want to move Mangiapane but he has just one 20-goal year, a 35-tally effort in 2021-22. Aside from that, he’s typically in the high teens. That’s still a useful player but at $5.8MM, he’s an expensive one. The Flames also need to clear out money and if they feel he’s more of an 18-goal player moving forward and not a 35-goal one, it wouldn’t be surprising if they look to move him.

Taylor Hall (Boston) – Hall’s in his early 30s now and isn’t the top liner he was in his prime. However, he’s still a capable secondary scorer and had a strong showing in Boston’s first-round loss to Florida. The Bruins need to create some cap flexibility and while Hall might not be their first choice to move, the two years at $6MM per season remaining on it means it’s something they might have to consider.

Anthony Mantha (Washington) – Why not? Mantha showed some strong flashes with Detroit but hasn’t been able to bring that to the Capitals with any sort of consistency. If they want to be active in free agency (perhaps trying to bring back Dmitry Orlov), they’re going to need some cap room. Mantha’s on an expiring deal at $5.7MM and if could get back to his 20-goal form with the Red Wings, he’d be a worthwhile acquisition.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Edmonton – what do they do this offseason?

I don’t expect them to do a ton this summer. They made a big swing at the deadline to bring in Mattias Ekholm and that was their big core move. Now, this summer should be about some tweaks around the edges while trimming payroll to get cap-compliant.

On the back end, while they’d like to keep both Brett Kulak and Cody Ceci, I’m not sure they can afford to do so. The two combine for a $6MM cap hit which is fine when you have cap flexibility but not so much when you need space. With Evan Bouchard proving he’s ready for a top-four role, there’s room for one of those players but not so much both of them. Philip Broberg is also in the mix for a full-time spot which could push one of Ceci or Kulak out.

Speaking of Bouchard, while they’d probably want to sign him to a long-term deal, that’s just not practical based on their current roster. They’ll bridge him for two years and hope the anticipated increase to the salary cap will allow them to afford to sign him to a long-term contract at that time.

Up front, I could see them moving on from Kailer Yamamoto. He’s someone I’m going to cover in more detail in a separate piece in the next week or so I won’t go into much detail here but that’s a salary slot they can’t really afford, especially if they want to re-sign pending UFA Nick Bjugstad who fit in nicely after being acquired. Klim Kostin and Ryan McLeod will get short-term contracts to keep the AAV down.

If they can move out a contract or two by July 1st, it could give them a chance to go after a bottom-six forward or two that they like. If not, they might be forced to do their shopping closer to training camp when players are looking for a soft landing spot with the hopes of bolstering their value for another crack at the market a year from now. Edmonton would be very appealing for those players which could yield some good value additions if they’re patient.

Bradley B: Since the Predators became sellers at the deadline, and with a GM change coming, do you see them aiming for a rebuild/retool? Are they likely to try and move some more of their players this summer?

Rumors surround MIN defense prospect Calen Addison. Are there any similar prospects (hopefully centers) out there who need a change of scenery and seem like a close value swap?

Where will Connor Hellebuyck be playing next season?

Full disclosure, my track record of making accurate predictions with Nashville hasn’t been great so keep that in mind reading this answer. With the state of their roster, I think they should take a step back for a year or two and continue moving out some veterans. In terms of shooting for longer-term success and not just being a bubble team, that’s their best chance to do it. But is rebuilding really in their DNA? Barry Trotz was a win-now coach; is he really going to start his tenure as GM by diving head-first into a rebuild? With the cap room they have, they can flip the switch and add a few quality veterans. Add that to their core and they could very well be back in the playoffs next year. They don’t typically walk away from that chance with regularity so I’m skeptical they’re going to start now.

I know the speculation is out there with Addison but that might be a move that they regret. His value isn’t the greatest right now so I don’t think there are many promising young middlemen that they’d be able to get in return for him. Maybe Joe Veleno if Detroit thinks he maxes out in his current role? A move like that would yield a replacement for Filip Hronek at least. I could see Carolina moving Jack Drury this summer and a swap of younger players would make sense for them so that could be another possibility. If Wild GM Bill Guerin thinks highly of Liam Foudy, that could be another option but I think they’d be better off keeping Addison between those two. Frankly, I think they’d be better off keeping him period. The best is yet to come from him and Minnesota shouldn’t be rushing to move him as a result.

In yesterday’s mailbag, I talked about the possibility of Winnipeg giving this core one more partial year and seeing if they get a different outcome. If that happens, then it’s possible that Hellebuyck stays. But I’ll go a bit off the board and say Carolina. Pyotr Kochetkov is their goalie of the future but that future isn’t 2023-24. They’ve been doing fine with mid-tier goalies but those players don’t win too many games on their own. Hellebuyck can and in the playoffs, we’ve seen the difference that a strong goalie can make. This is a win-now core and Hellebuyck is definitely a win-now goalie.

jawman74: Where do you see the Senators going from here? Obviously, it seems as if their goal was to try and compete for the playoffs this season but they fell short. Do you think they run it back with this current team, try and retool, or something else? How do guys like DeBrincat or Chychrun fit into the mix? Who’s in net on opening night, is it Forsberg or Sogaard, or someone else? When is their contending window?

A lot of what happens next will be determined by new ownership. If they maintain GM Pierre Dorion (and by extension, D.J. Smith), they’re going to try to keep building with this group or at least most of it. If a change is made, then all bets are off. That scenario is too hard to predict so let’s assume it’s the status quo moving forward.

I think Dorion’s extension is to run it back with this group. Let’s not forget that with the exception of Claude Giroux, their core forwards are all 25 or younger. That’s a group that has room to improve organically which should provide reason for optimism to stay the course. Now, Alex DeBrincat can change that course to an extent. If he doesn’t want to sign a long-term deal, Dorion might turn around and trade him and they’re probably not getting an equivalent scorer in return while there isn’t one like him available in free agency. Losing him would hurt, no doubt, but even in that scenario, I still see them pushing for a playoff spot and trying to build this roster up.

Defensively, the addition of Jakob Chychrun gives them two top-pairing players and rounds out their top four nicely so I see him sticking around for sure. They have decisions to make on some of their younger guys (Erik Brannstrom is arbitration-eligible while Lassi Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker are waiver-eligible) and I could see one of them being moved with a veteran like Travis Hamonic sticking around. Most of the heavy lifting there is done, for now at least.

Ottawa needs a viable starting goalie. Anton Forsberg isn’t a 1A and Mads Sogaard needs time in the minors. That said, I don’t think they’re going to pursue one and instead, will look for another Cam Talbot-like acquisition. Semyon Varlamov makes sense on paper; he’d get a chance to play a bit more while being on a team that should be on the rise. Their opening night starter should be someone not currently in the organization, I’ll say that much.

As for their contending window, it might be now. Chychrun has two years left on his below-market deal and with a higher cap at that time, he could cost what Thomas Chabot costs now ($8MM). Can they afford another deal in that range on their books? Giroux is up two years from now as well so that’s the soft closing point. The good news is that their young core is good enough to keep them in it for a while but having moved out some good draft picks and prospects lately, they may not have the pieces to trade for another player like Chychrun down the road. But if they can land an impact free agent in 2025 or 2026, that window could swing back open.

astoria_lol: What players if any could be considered busts in the upcoming draft? And could any teams trade up for a higher pick by moving reasonable assets?

Matvei Michkov is quite a talented player, so much so that if he was in the same situation as the other top prospects in this draft, he could very well go second overall. Clearly, he’s not. With three years left on his deal in Russia and the overall uncertainty associated with Russians right now, it’s possible that Michkov is an NHL bust simply if he chooses not to (or is unable) to come over.

There are some questions about Eduard Sale as well. Regarded as a top-ten prospect coming into the season, he has fallen out of the first round entirely on some boards. The common indicator is that he has the skill to play at the top level but there are questions about if he’ll be able to withstand the physicality and play more of a North American game. Accordingly, some team will draft him based on his skills and hope he can learn the rest but it’s possible that the development of the other elements doesn’t happen.

There will certainly be others that don’t make it but, in fairness, it’s way too early to start making predictions on who could be a bust from this draft class. As for trading up, sure, the potential is there in theory. But straight pick swaps are happening less and less at the top of the draft. I’m sure there will be one or two in the first round but most of the moving up is likely to take place later as the draft goes on.

WilfPaiement: If players have to be cleared to return from injury, then why are there so many injury reveals by players after they are eliminated from the playoffs? Is a player or players really helping their team’s odds of winning by playing injured? It just all seems like a Neanderthal approach. Perfect example. Gabriel Landeskog.

When a player is cleared to return to the lineup, they’re seldom 100% healthy. They’ve recovered reasonably well from that injury or to a point where they can’t re-injure it (or make it any worse). Anyone playing a sport at a high level is bound to have wear and tear throughout the year and in hockey, those get exacerbated in the playoffs when their bodies take even more of a pounding from a physicality standpoint.

The challenge is that by mid-April when the playoffs start, the list of players not playing through some sort of issue is usually smaller than the list of the ones that are playing through something. That also extends to the minors. If a team sat everyone that was dealing with some sort of injury, they wouldn’t make it very far in the postseason so they can’t sit them all. The end result is players playing through an injury and a long list of injury reveals after elimination.

Some players at 80% could very much be better than a fourth liner or minor leaguer that’s at close to full health. It depends on their spot on the depth chart. If it’s a fourth liner, then sure, sit that player for someone else but if it’s one of your top scorers, you’ll take them that less than full strength. The longer the playoffs go, the fewer players there are at full strength. That’s just the nature of a physical sport that gets a lot more physical for Game 83 and beyond.

I wouldn’t call it a Neanderthal approach. When a team is playing deep into the playoffs, they’re going to get hurt at times, injured at others. But when the options are sit and be replaced by a weaker player that would further hurt your chances at winning or try to play through it, most are going to opt for the latter, especially with there being no guarantee they’ll get back to that point of the postseason again.

You mention Landeskog. I don’t think he really has any regrets from playing through his injury. I don’t think Shea Weber and Carey Price have any regrets from trying to play through their career-ending injuries either (and they didn’t win the Stanley Cup like Colorado did). They made the choice to play through it and I assume they were given the information to help them understand the potential ramifications of their decisions. As long as they know the risks, I’m okay with them making the calls to play through those injuries and teams feel the same way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Sabres, Jets, Bruins, Draft, Flyers, Officiating

May 27, 2023 at 2:37 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include discussion on Buffalo’s goaltending situation, Philadelphia’s new front office, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our mailbag from this weekend; there will also be one that runs tomorrow where your question might be answered.

sabres3277: As the Sabres approach the NHL Draft do you think they will address the goaltending position via a trade/free agent to ensure that D. Levi has a veteran partner and mentor? I believe the Sabres need to acquire a solid veteran defenseman to bolster the young defense. Thoughts?

When it comes to the goaltending, I’m a little on the fence. I think they’d like to do something but there’s a fine needle to thread here. John Gibson might be available but he has four years left. I don’t think Buffalo wants to do that. Connor Hellebuyck is on an expiring deal next season but I don’t believe the Sabres would want to pay the freight of a long-term contract. Maybe Nashville moves Juuse Saros if they’re going to head into a rebuild but that’s hardly a guarantee. I don’t see another trade option that makes enough of a difference to matter.

In free agency, Tristan Jarry is out there but he’s not taking a short-term contract in all likelihood unless his market completely tanks. (And if it does, a pillow deal in Buffalo would actually be pretty intriguing.) It thins out pretty quickly after that. Maybe Semyon Varlamov would be of interest with the idea of being a platoon goalie instead of a strict backup and he wouldn’t need a long-term commitment. He might make the most sense to me to partner with either Devon Levi or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (it wouldn’t shock me if Levi got some run in Rochester where he could start the bulk of the games over Eric Comrie) and he could be an upgrade on what Craig Anderson brought to the table this season.

As for the defenseman, I certainly agree with you. I had that as one of the items on their Offseason Checklist last weekend. They have a decent top four that should continue to improve but getting one extra second-pairing-caliber blueliner would be a big hedge against injuries and inconsistency from their youngsters while also letting them balance out the ice time a little bit. That could pay dividends down the stretch next season.

joebad34: Sabres question: It is obvious V. Olofsson will be on the trading block. His upside is 25-30 potential goals. His downside is business decisions heading into corners; that being said, can he be moved for a right-shot d-man or just a draft pick or two? What would the value be?

Frankly, I don’t think Victor Olofsson’s trade value is going to be all that high. Here’s a player in the prime of his career with a strong offensive game…that is seeing his ice time dip each year to the point of being a healthy scratch at times. This is called not moving Olofsson at his high point in value, especially when he carries a $4.75MM cap charge.

Quality right-shot defenders are in short supply in high demand. Wingers with a decent scoring touch but some warts in their all-around game are in much greater supply and much lower demand. If Buffalo was to get a quality right-shot defender in a trade here, it’d be surprising unless Olofsson is merely salary ballast with the Sabres sending out a strong pick and/or prospect in the deal as well. As for moving him for draft picks? I don’t see that happening; a team with $4.75MM in cap space is likely to decide that they’d be better off spending that on a free agent than trading assets for Olofsson unless it was a later-round selection which wouldn’t be a great return for him by any stretch.

If the Sabres decide that they need to move on from Olofsson, I think the likeliest scenario is a swap of ‘change of scenery’ players. They’d get someone else on an expiring contract at a similar price tag with the hope that the other player will fit in better than Buffalo and Olofsson will do better with the other team. I don’t think he has much more value than that in this cap-strapped marketplace.

rdiddy75: Do the Jets get rid of trio of Dubois, Scheifele, and Wheeler and retool the team?

It certainly feels like they need to do something, doesn’t it? The way they went out in the playoffs followed by Rick Bowness’ pointed comments would seem to suggest they can’t just run it back. But GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has made it known that he believes in this core group and seemingly indicated in his press conference that as long as they get to the playoffs, they’ve accomplished something. (At least, that was one of my takeaways from his comments.)

With that in mind, I don’t think the Jets are going to choose to blow up the core just yet. I suspect they’re willing to move on from Blake Wheeler but how much of a trade market is there going to be for him at $8.25MM? As a small market team, I’m not sure paying him $5.5MM over two years not to play for them is a move they’re going to want to make. Maybe there’s a swap with them retaining up to half of his contract available but the return still won’t be great.

As for Pierre-Luc Dubois, I think they might hold onto him. If you’re a team interested in acquiring him, how much are you willing to pay up if you believe there’s a strong chance he tests free agency? Probably a first-rounder, a decent prospect, and either another pick or salary ballast. But they can do that deal at the trade deadline where Winnipeg can retain half the contract, allowing the acquiring team to be able to afford another player they’d have had to clear out if they acquiring Dubois now. Again, it comes back to my belief that Cheveldayoff thinks this core is good enough to be in the mix. If he can get the same types of offers in February than he can now, why not run it back and hope for a hot start that convinces some pending free agents (even if it’s not Dubois) to re-sign?

Mark Scheifele is an interesting case. The run-it-back logic for Dubois applies here somewhat although with Scheifele, is he willing to sign a long-term extension this summer with Winnipeg or elsewhere? If so, that changes the picture. With the UFA market not being strong, if Scheifele is willing to sign a new deal now, he becomes the top middleman available and Winnipeg should be able to get a significant return, one that would justify moving him now. But if Cheveldayoff thinks that a strong first half could persuade Scheifele to stay in Winnipeg, it wouldn’t shock me if he holds on to him as well.

Long story short, yes, I think there’s a shakeup coming in Winnipeg and it wouldn’t shock me if none of those players are around a year from now. I’m just not convinced it’s happening this summer but rather closer to the trade deadline unless they can get a king’s ransom for their two centers in the next six weeks or so.

SkidRowe: 1) If you were the Bruins’ GM, how would you approach the future?

2) The Bruins’ long-term core (three or more years remaining) is Pastrnak, Zacha, Coyle, McAvoy, Lindholm, Carlo. Is that good enough to rebuild around?

1) What’s the saying, all good things must come to an end? That’s where things are for Boston. They don’t have many draft picks, nor do they have a particularly strong prospect pool. Frankly, that’s to be expected from a team that has tried to contend for this long. So in the short term, I’d be looking at trying to recover some of those futures.

Matt Grzelcyk and Derek Forbort are on expiring contracts and should have some value. I talked about in a recent mailbag the hypothetical trade value of Jeremy Swayman but if you’re going to take a short-term step back, maybe it’s Linus Ullmark that they should look to sell high on. As noted earlier, there isn’t a great free agent market for goaltenders nor are there a lot of viable starters that could be traded for. Coming off a likely Vezina-winning year, he’d bring back some quality futures as well. Up front, I’d explore moving Taylor Hall who doesn’t really fit their long-term core plans. If Jake DeBrusk isn’t part of those long-term plans, he’d be on the sell list too. Making some of those moves would help free up some cap flexibility to round out the rest of their roster while stockpiling some much-needed futures.

If they had a bit more cap space and a first-round pick in the next couple of years, I could make a case to justify trying to trade for someone like Scheifele and extending him even though it runs counter to everything I just wrote as a key center is something they really need. If they could get that, do it and figure out the rest later. However, I don’t think they have the trade assets to do that right now. But make some of these seller moves and maybe they’ll have a shot at a move like that a year from now.

2) It depends on what you mean by good enough. Is that the future core of another perennial contender? Probably not. For me, the true core would be David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Hampus Lindholm with Swayman (under team control for three more years) part of it if he’s still around next season. That’s a foundation that should be good enough to hang around the Wild Card mix but they need a true impact center if they want a shot at returning to contender status.

Unclemike1526: With the talent in this year’s draft, I don’t see the possibility of the Hawks trading up far from 19. Maybe a couple of spaces even with four 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders. How far do you think they can realistically move up? Obviously, they’re not trading Bedard, But I’m sure they would love to move up from 19. Barring that, who are some guys they could use those picks to trade for players already in the NHL, that they might like?

It has gotten awfully difficult to trade up lately, especially last year where the only pick swap in the first round was 11 for 27, 34, and 45 with San Jose deciding that they were better off with adding some extra picks to a prospect pool that isn’t the deepest. That was in a weak draft. In a strong one, I could see teams being more protective of those early selections. If Chicago wanted to move up a few spots, I think there’s a way to do it that would get them to somewhere between 14-18 but it would be dependent on one of those teams losing out on the player that they were hoping to get. Every year, we hear GMs talk about how they were trying to trade up (or back into the late first round) and just couldn’t find anyone willing to do so. That could very well happen here.

Honestly, I’m not sure that their best asset to try to move up is their extra picks. Instead, I think their cap space could be. For example, Pittsburgh (at 14) is a team that could benefit from creating some cap room. If the Blackhawks were willing to take on Mikael Granlund’s remaining two years, for example, would that be good enough for the Penguins to slide down to 19; is the extra cap space worth dropping down? I suppose Calgary at 16 could be an option as well as they’re quite capped out although there isn’t an obvious contract to fit into a framework like this. Vancouver at 11 could be a possibility as well although Chicago would probably have to take a sizable deal back for the Canucks to slide eight spots.

As for flipping those second-rounders for players, there are too many players to list. With so many teams being tight to the cap, they could get some good players if they wanted to flip those picks. I just don’t think they’re intending to do that. Getting the top pick isn’t going to flip the switch and end the rebuild. They’re not a player or two away from being a playoff contender so why deviate from the course now? Get those prospects in the system and then when they are ready to start adding to their roster again, they can deal from their picks or their prospect pool for those players. I could see Chicago trading out from 55 outright to get a 2024 second-rounder, giving them a possible chip to move for a player at that time if they think they’re ready to flip that switch next offseason.

Black Ace57: What do you make of the Flyers’ new front office approach? I personally think Briere and Jones will do a good job helping rebuild the Flyers brand, but what are the chances of power struggles between the FO and Tortorella with this setup?

I wasn’t a big fan of the Keith Jones hiring, to be honest. If you’re going to go with a first-time GM as they did in Daniel Briere, having someone with legitimate front office experience to go with him seemed like something they should have been looking for. Granted, Jones knows the Philadelphia market better than any other external candidate that would have been considered and that counts for something, especially from a marketing standpoint. But he doesn’t have a real background in contract negotiation, agent relations, etc. They’re going to need an experienced assistant GM to help fill some of those gaps.

I don’t think there’s going to be much of a power struggle, to be honest. John Tortorella knows that he doesn’t have a lot of years left in this league, that’s just a reality of a veteran coach nowadays. If he tries to go over Briere’s head when there’s a disagreement on personnel moves, I’d think the franchise would side with the up-and-comer and Tortorella would be out of a job. I don’t mind the idea of him having some say. All coaches do to an extent and Tortorella has been around long enough that he knows a lot of players and can help fill in some gaps with an inexperienced front office. As I noted with Jones, this isn’t the exact route I’d have gone if it were up to me but I think it’ll work out well enough.

FearTheWilson: I’ve been a diehard hockey fan since I saw my 1st hockey game in 1992. I’ve never lived in one place long enough to ever like one team more than another. I just love the game and everything about it. It’s the greatest sport on earth by far and the playoffs are so intense that if you can’t enjoy them, I can’t even respect you. That said, I’m done watching. It used to be the best team wins. Now it comes down to which team gets the benefit of the refs’ horrible calls. I understand that the game is played at an extremely high pace and human error is unavoidable. Bad calls happen and it’s just part of the game. But these officials get worse every year. The refs miss so many obvious calls yet they’re so quick to call the softest infraction. They can’t even get the call right after reviewing it on their tablets for 10 minutes. Each linesman calls icing differently. The Department of Player Safety is so clueless its comical. It all blows my mind. The only consistency the officials display is their inconsistency. It’s truly pathetic.

Hockey is a sport with a culture like no other. These guys play through injuries that would send most people to the ER. The softest player in the NHL would still be the toughest player in the MLB, NBA, or MLS. It’s just so sad that a sport as great as this is way too often decided by the flakes in zebra stripes.

I read everyone’s comments about how the refs or the league are against your team. But you’re wrong. The officials are so clueless I’m pretty sure they don’t even know which teams are on the ice. They’re not biased they’re useless!

So my question is… am I wrong?

I won’t bother getting into the usual platitudes as you’ve summed them up nicely already.

To me, the current state of officiating is a by-product of two things. One of them is the improvement in technology where it’s so much easier to see mistakes. As viewers, we have the ability to pause and slow things down with a crystal-clear picture. One network that has regional rights for a few teams has a rotatable camera that can be viewed on a second screen where viewers can even get their own angles, ones that aren’t even available on the broadcast. A generation of officiating ago, you were lucky to get one or two replays if the game happened to be televised and it wasn’t exactly in high definition. Of course more mistakes are going to be found now. To take nothing away from the now-retired officials, I think they made plenty as well, but a lot of them didn’t get noticed.

The other is a trickle-down effect from the change to two referees. If things were still under the old system, half the referees up now would be in the AHL. Those in the AHL would be in the ECHL or major junior, and so forth. Now, by necessity, officials are moving up the ranks quickly to the point where I think some of them are getting into the NHL quicker than they probably should be. This is a job that’s in high demand but clearly isn’t the easiest to fill (and with the grief they get, perhaps not the most desirable at the lower levels either). Some consistently inconsistent referees is the end result.

Unfortunately, I don’t see much of a solution. Hockey isn’t an easy sport to officiate. That’s not a cop-out answer either, that’s just the way it is. There are few black-and-white plays to call during a game; a lot is open to interpretation. Yes, hammering home more of a uniform standard for offside and icing would be nice but I’m pretty sure they’re already trying to do that. But I think these are the best officials available, especially compared to how things are being called at the World Championship where the inconsistency on a game-to-game basis is considerably more noticeable than an NHL contest. This is something where there just isn’t a quick fix.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Devils, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Wild, Wright, Robertson, Thunderbirds, Top Pick

May 20, 2023 at 1:30 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include New Jersey’s goaltending situation, Jason Robertson’s quiet start to the playoffs, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back later on as due to the volume of questions submitted, we’ll be running two more mailbags between now and next weekend.

SpeakOfTheDevils: What do the Devils do at the goalie position this summer? Obviously, Bernier retires, Blackwood isn’t qualified, do we run a Vanecek/Schmid platoon or trade Vanecek for someone like Saros or Hellebuyck?

First, I’ll agree with you on the first two. Jonathan Bernier has been out for over a year and a half so he clearly isn’t returning. I still think Mackenzie Blackwood can be a good NHL goalie but after being relegated to third-string status for the playoffs plus his $3.36MM qualifying offer, he’s not coming back either.

I’ll start my answer to your question with another question. Do the Devils think they can re-sign both Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier? Neither are goaltenders obviously but they’re going to have an impact on what does – or doesn’t – happen between the pipes.

There’s only so much cap space to go around and a lot of what they have is going to have to go to those two, probably somewhere around $18MM, give or take. If those two sign and they have big contracts on the books already in Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Dougie Hamilton, can they afford another big one? Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck aren’t on contracts at that level yet but will be soon enough and I’m not sure it’s justifiable to make a move for one of them without being prepared to pay up for their next, much more expensive, deal.

Right now, I think New Jersey’s intention is to re-sign both wingers and that will more or less force their hand into going cheap between the pipes with Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid so that’s what I’ll go with as an answer. But if talks with one of them fall through and they wind up getting moved, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were to take a run at a goaltending upgrade.

PyramidHeadcrab: What’s the long-term plan for the Arizona Coyotes and Columbus Blue Jackets?

Arizona has become a dumping ground for bad contracts, and they trade away every quality asset they develop. They’re playing in an OHL-sized arena and icing a team that has no chance of competing. Are they built to serve other teams? I don’t see the goal here.

Columbus has flirted with the playoffs and hosted some genuine star talent at points, but they seem to be cursed with injuries and mediocre depth/prospects. Does Columbus ever pull it all together and reliably compete, or do they simply continue to exist in perpetual suffering?

This is certainly a topical question with the arena proposal for the Coyotes getting voted down earlier this week (and it was particularly timely as it came before the news broke). Franchise-wise, I do think the team is going to take a serious look at trying to find a Plan B that works in the desert over the next eight-to-ten months. If nothing presents itself, then relocation could very well be on the table with a new owner in place.

But as you noted in your follow-up comment, you were looking at more of the on-ice element for both teams. For Arizona, they’ve made it clear that they haven’t had much desire to win for the last several years and based on GM Bill Armstrong’s comments earlier about where they are in that process, probably a few more. I don’t think they’re concerned about not having an overly competitive team; their goal is competing a few years from now with a bunch of promising prospects growing together into a sustainable contender. Taking on injured players allows them to keep net payroll costs down (they’re paying considerably less than the AAV after insurance) which is particularly important playing in the arena they’re currently in. There’s an end game for this, it just won’t be seen for a little while longer.

As for Columbus, I’m not particularly bullish on their future. I get that landing Johnny Gaudreau resulted in them trying to expedite things but clearly, it didn’t work. They’re going to get a high-end talent with the third pick next month at least and they have some quality youngsters headlined by David Jiricek and Kent Johnson. With them, Gaudreau, and Patrik Laine, there’s a good foundation. But unless their new head coach can elevate their play to another level, this feels like a franchise whose peak might be a second-round exit or two. That’s not terrible but while I wouldn’t necessarily say they’ll be perpetually suffering, I don’t see them getting over the proverbial hump anytime soon.

Zakis: What youngsters make the Wild opening day roster next year and what kind of impact do you think they can make? To piggyback on a comment, what is the role of a POHO? More focused on the on-ice product or business side? Thanks as always.

Let’s start with Brock Faber. He didn’t look out of place in the playoffs and with Mathew Dumba and John Klingberg heading for unrestricted free agency in July, there should be a spot in the lineup for him. Next season, I don’t think he’s going to make a huge impact right away but I could see his ATOI getting into the 16-18-minute range which would be a solid rookie year.

Up front, I think Marco Rossi breaks camp at least with Minnesota. Now with basically two full AHL seasons under his belt, they need to get a feel for where he is development-wise. If he winds up back on the fourth line eventually, then they can send him back down but I suspect he’ll get a look. His impact might wind up being negligible, however.

I see the Wild being a team that could be active in free agency in September. There are always free agent bargains to be had at that point and they might bring in a veteran or two that could push someone like Samuel Walker or Adam Beckman back to Iowa to start. If you want a dark horse forward to break camp, I’ll throw out Caedan Bankier. If they go young on the fourth line, his defensive game is good enough to stick while providing some offensive upside. A good camp could have him in the mix.

As for the role of a President of Hockey Operations (or POHO), it varies from team to team. Some are really involved in the day-to-day operations to the point where they could have the final say on strategy and personnel moves with the GM then going out and executing them. Some teams don’t have a President of Hockey Operations, they just have a President (Minnesota is one of those with Matt Majka). Some have a POHO on paper but in reality, they’re not overly involved with on-ice elements. In those instances, they’re heavily involved in business strategy, marketing, and revenue growth.

aka.nda: Been wondering about Shane Wright’s next few seasons. Would a trade scenario be unconscionable? If not, what is his value like? Who would be a good fit and why?

It would be a bit of a shock to see a fourth-overall pick traded one year later but I suppose it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility. For it to happen, Seattle would need to be convinced that he’s not going to pan out as they hoped a year ago which frankly, would be a particularly aggressive conclusion to draw for someone who has less than 30 games of professional experience under his belt. GM Ron Francis is patient and this would be the opposite of that. The other element required here would be another team would need to feel the other way, that he is still a high-quality center prospect. That one is easier to see happening as I’m sure plenty of teams would want to get their hands on him.

From a trade value perspective, I’d peg it somewhere around what the tenth pick would fetch in a trade. Last year wasn’t the deepest of drafts and his post-draft year wasn’t great (though it wasn’t bad either, by any stretch) so I think his value would be down slightly relative to a year ago. From the fit side of things, anyone who needs a young center would be a fit on paper. That’s a lot of teams.

I’m trying to think of a scenario that could make Francis pull the trigger and this is the best I could come up with. A team makes a promising young center that’s 21 or 22 and either already in the NHL (or should be next season) available. That player doesn’t fit the trading team’s timeline as they’re in a rebuild but Wright does. I’m not sure there’s a team in a rebuild right now with someone that age with that much control and upside that could be made available in this scenario. But that’s my guess on what it would take for them to move Wright that quickly.

jacl: What the hell is going on with Jason Robertson? This is two years in a row he has disappeared in the playoffs.

As much as Robertson has struggled to score, he still sat second on the Stars in points heading into the start of their series against Vegas at just under a point per game. That’s not terrible. I’d suggest that he has been better this year than 2022, his first taste of postseason action so that’s a step in the right direction, if nothing else.

It’s a simple answer but sometimes, it takes players a while to adapt to the different way that playoff hockey is played. In particular, smaller offensive players can deal with some challenges with the tighter checking and greater physicality; look no further than Dallas’ first-round opponent in Minnesota who didn’t get a lot from Kirill Kaprizov that series. Robertson enters this series with 19 playoff games under his belt which isn’t a whole lot. There’s still a lot of time for him to figure out the nuances of playoff hockey, not just this year but beyond. But it looks like it’s going to take him a bit longer to play at his regular season level in the postseason.

Gmm8811: I’m hearing serious rumors about Drew Bannister moving up from the Springfield Thunderbirds to an assistant spot behind the Blues bench. If that happens, who do you think gets a shot at the T-Birds HC position? Daniel Tkaczuk or Jordan Smith?

Bannister makes sense to take Mike Van Ryn’s vacated spot on St. Louis’ staff. He had a long pro career playing under a lot of coaches in different leagues. With five years of coaching in the pros under his belt now, a spot on an NHL bench is the next logical step for him to take. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him get that position on Craig Berube’s staff and then have the Blues go outside the organization to fill Craig MacTavish’s vacancy.

As for who would move to the top role in Springfield if they promote from within, I would think it’d be Tkaczuk. He has been the associate coach for the last two years, a role that’s often created to elevate one of the assistants into a bit more of a prominent role. He has seven years of experience coaching in the pros as well. Smith, meanwhile, has only been out of major junior for a single year. Yes, he has been a head coach in the past unlike Tkaczuk (going back to his NOJHL days) but I think they’d value Tkaczuk’s longer track record when it comes to making their choice.

astoria_lol: Is there a possibility a team ends up convincing the Blackhawks to trade the 1st Overall Pick? If so who would it be and what could a possible return be?

What’s the old saying? If Wayne Gretzky could be traded, so could anyone? I suppose that could be applied here. But Connor Bedard has been touted as a generational talent for a while now so why would Chicago want to even entertain the possibility of trading him? Heck, he’s even helping the franchise financially; ESPN’s Emily Kaplan reported earlier this month that the team sold $5.2MM in tickets in the 24 hours following the Draft Lottery victory. That isn’t the type of player (or financial windfall) a team should willingly be walking away from.

It’s not as if they’re on the verge of contention and moving him could net them several young win-now pieces to really bolster their team for next season. With the way GM Kyle Davidson has blown things up, it’s going to take them a few years to build back up, even with Bedard. He’ll be the centerpiece of that retooled franchise in a couple of seasons so I just don’t see a reason why they’d consider moving that draft pick.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

May 17, 2023 at 6:20 pm CDT | by Ethan Hetu 29 Comments

With the second round of the NHL playoffs set to conclude tonight, more and more fanbases are re-focusing onto their team’s offseason work, while a lucky four markets will have the chance to see their teams remain in contention for a Stanley Cup.

Keeping that in mind, it’s time for another edition of the #PHRMailbag as many teams’ trajectories have either become a bit clearer with the second round behind us, or, in some markets, far murkier after another playoff disappointment.

Our last mailbag featured topics such as the upcoming Vegas Golden Knights offseason, second-line center options for the Detroit Red Wings, offseason offer-sheet possibilities, the futures of Alexis Lafreniere and Jeremy Swayman, and more.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

PHR Mailbag: Golden Knights, Red Wings, Offer Sheets, Lafreniere, Swayman, Coyotes, Conn Smythe

April 30, 2023 at 6:26 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 10 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the potential for an offer sheet this summer, Alexis Lafreniere’s future with the Rangers, Jeremy Swayman’s trade value, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

aka.nda: What wizardry does the Golden Knights’ offseason have in store for us?

Rarely has there been a dull summer for Vegas since they joined the league but I think this offseason could be the exception. They’re not in a spot where they have to dump salary to be compliant with the salary cap. I’m sure they’d like to try to re-sign Ivan Barbashev but depending on what happens with other areas, they might not even need to clear money to make that happen.

A lot of their offseason activity this summer will revolve around Robin Lehner. Is he able to come back? If yes, then they might want to look to trim some money if they want to realistically try to keep Barbashev in the fold. Otherwise, they can put him back on LTIR and use his $5MM. Some of that will go towards a backup to Logan Thompson (likely Adin Hill, Laurent Brossoit, or another veteran netminder) but that won’t cost $5MM alone; they can use some of that plus their cap space and try to keep Barbashev that way.

If they do decide they want to move some money out, Alec Martinez is the logical choice. He’ll be on an expiring deal next season and isn’t the impact defender he was when he first joined the Golden Knights. Accordingly, his $5.25MM AAV is on the high side. They probably won’t be able to clear that full deal without either paying part of it down or giving up other assets but they could take back a forward making a bit less to fill one of the vacancies that will be created in free agency.

Vegas likes to chase down the big deal, I get it. But there isn’t an elite free agent out there and let’s face it, they probably don’t have the prospect pool and draft capital to make the top offer in the bidding for an impact player on the trade market. Years of moving picks and prospects will do that to a team. So perhaps this summer will be a quiet one for Vegas, one that sees them lose a few players but keep the core largely intact. In other words, the type of summer that befits a strong contender.

gowings2008: What are some 2nd line center options for Detroit heading into next season?

I have some bad news for any team looking for help down the middle this summer – there isn’t much in free agency to get excited about. Is Max Domi worthy of a long-term commitment to play on the second line? Maybe but I’m not sure Detroit is the right team to give him that deal. Has J.T. Compher shown enough to be a legitimate second-liner? I’m not sold that he’s a 50-point player on the Red Wings. Ryan O’Reilly (the established veteran, not the Detroit center prospect with the same name) could fit as a short-term option and fits the bridge veteran approach GM Steve Yzerman has taken with some of his pickups in recent years so perhaps he’s an option. Assuming that Boston’s middlemen re-sign or retire, those three are the top options on the open market.

On the trade front, is the time right for Detroit to push a bunch of chips in to make a big splash and add an impact center? That’s not typically what a non-playoff team does so I’m not sure they really are too active on this front. Without many long-term commitments on the books, I wouldn’t be shocked if they kicked the tires on Kevin Hayes in Philadelphia, especially if the Flyers are willing to pay that deal down a little bit. Then that becomes another bridge veteran approach, someone that can hold a spot while they hope to draft and develop a future impact center.

Honestly, I think the answer to this question is the same player as this year, Andrew Copp. I like him more as a third-liner but I don’t think Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno are true top-six options at this point in time. As a result, I think it’s Copp’s spot to lose.

Josh2831: Any players you see that could get a serious offer sheet this summer and could the Predators be the team to make the offer?

Generally speaking, offer sheets are so rare that my answer to a question like this will almost automatically be no. In most cases, the offer has to be so high above market value to deter the team from matching and when you look at the thresholds, it’s hard to find a price point for a player that the signing team is comfortable with and the other team won’t match. I don’t think anyone goes above the $8.58MM level and unless the player isn’t that good, whichever team is offer sheeted will match. Frankly, I think the lower end of the market is where there could be so much more activity (in the third-round range or less) but everyone plays nice on that front so I don’t expect anything to happen there either.

But there is one player who could theoretically be a bigger risk to sign an offer sheet, Pierre-Luc Dubois. He’s a year away from unrestricted free agency and if Winnipeg was to match a one-year offer sheet, they wouldn’t be able to trade him. The Jets would then be faced with accepting the draft pick compensation as a return or walking him straight to the open market in 2024. And if he really wanted to make it interesting, he’d opt for the top of the grid where the compensation is a first-round pick and a third-rounder ($6.435MM). Doing so probably leaves money on the table but anything higher than that is a punitive price for the signing team for what’s likely to be a one-year rental and Winnipeg would happily take the picks and run and Dubois shouldn’t want to hurt his potential new team.

At that lower price point, it’s a harder call to make, especially if GM Kevin Cheveldayoff wants to give some of this core group one more chance, perhaps with a couple of changes based on how the playoffs went. Dubois probably wouldn’t sign a multi-year offer as doing so means Winnipeg could match and he’d have to stay longer than he might want to, assuming his end goal is still to move elsewhere.

By the way, I don’t think it would be Montreal, his speculative desired destination, giving him that offer sheet as with where they are in their rebuild, moving an unprotected first-round pick isn’t a good idea, especially if they think they could get him in free agency a year later. For a contender with some cap space though, that pick is going to be much lower in the first round and such a move becomes more justifiable.

Now, for Nashville specifically, my answer is a question back to you. Why would they get in on an offer sheet? They’re a team that appears to be in transition right now, the type of team that shouldn’t be willing to part with unprotected draft picks to sign a player at above-market value. I don’t see the incentive for them to get in on any offer sheets this summer.

Jasen: With the Rangers being in win-now mode, and the Canadiens being in a rebuild, any chance at all that the Canadiens might be able to trade for Lafreniere? And if yes, would a 1st and A prospect be enough to get the deal done?

Philosophically speaking, a team that’s rebuilding probably shouldn’t be parting with first-round picks but Montreal technically did last year, flipping the first-rounder they got for Alexander Romanov to get Kirby Dach. So, I suppose it’s possible they could kick the tires, especially since they have an extra pick in the first round in June. I don’t think they’d go that high with an offer, however, considering he hasn’t been able to consistently crack New York’s top six and the fact that Montreal isn’t at the point yet where they should be moving their top prospects or their first-round pick which will be no worse than seventh overall. An offer that has Florida’s first-round pick this year (assuming it lands at 17th overall) and a couple of ‘B’ prospects (or equivalent pick) is around as high as I think they’d go right now. And unless New York has soured on him that much, I don’t think they should take that offer.

As for the Rangers’ side of things, I don’t think the idea of moving Lafreniere is necessarily a bad one. They’re going to have some tough decisions to make this summer from a cap perspective and while they could try to bridge the 21-year-old to keep the short-term cost down, it’s only kicking the cap problem down the road for a year or two. Are they better off taking a futures-based return now and using that money to put on a long-term K’Andre Miller contract instead? I think there’s a case to be made for that approach, especially if New York is hesitant in thinking that Lafreniere will break out and become that top-level talent that made him the first-overall selection back in 2020. Moving on that quickly from a top pick would sting but if they can get a first-round pick plus an ‘A’ prospect like your proposal suggests, it might be the right move for them to make. I just don’t see the Canadiens being the team to offer the top package.

SkidRowe: If he’s too expensive to re-sign, what can the Bruins get for Jeremy Swayman in the offseason?

Whenever I get a goalie trade value question, I usually take the answer that comes up in my head and dial it down a peg or two since recent history suggests that goalie trade values aren’t very good. But I’m not going to do so here.

Here are two quick stat lines to consider before reading further.

Swayman: 88 GP, 2.27 GAA, .920 SV%
Mystery Player: 98 GP, 2.20 GAA, .927 SV%

The mystery player is Cory Schneider and those are his career numbers at the time he was traded at the draft back in 2013 in a deal that saw Vancouver pick up the ninth-overall pick. Schneider’s numbers are a bit better but Swayman is younger and has more team control (three years) than Schneider did at the time (two years). If I’m Boston GM Don Sweeney, a first-round pick in that range is what I’m looking for. Pittsburgh at 14 is the only team that stands out so an equivalent drafted prospect could also be an option, if not potentially preferable if they’re looking to stay in the mix next season.

Granted, there are many teams that eschew the idea of drafting a goalie in the first round. But there’s a difference between drafting one and getting one who has already shown himself to be an above-average goaltender. At a time when a lot of teams are looking for quality goaltending, a young, controllable option with an early good track record sounds pretty appealing, even if it costs a first-rounder or equivalent prospect. It has been a while since a goalie has brought that type of return but I think Swayman can be the exception.

Coyotes1: Hello, what do you think the Coyotes are gonna be doing during the offseason? Are they going to trade for players with bad contracts? Like Mike Reilly and Josh Bailey, is there anyone else you can think of? Or do they just focus on re-signing their players? Thank you and have a great day!!!

With Arizona acquiring the contracts of Shea Weber and Jakub Voracek, they’re not in a spot where they have to do anything to get to the cap floor. By the time they re-sign their players and fill out their roster, they’ll be well over the Lower Limit.

The biggest factor in answering this question is one that none of us have access to and that’s how much money the team lost this season playing at a college facility. If revenues were down substantially and not made up for in other ways, there might not be much budget room for them to work with; it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if their actual payroll budget in terms of actual dollars is below the minimum. They just get away with it with insurance covering sizable parts of the contracts for the injured players.

Having said that, I think there will be an openness to taking on a contract or two in the right situation. One is a high AAV, low salary expiring deal. Another is something they think they can pump up the value of and flip for an asset, kind of like what they did with Shayne Gostisbehere. Reilly fits in that category. Bailey could be an option for the first category although a $3.5MM salary might deter them a little. I could see them taking Tyler Myers from Vancouver once his signing bonus is paid in mid-September if the Canucks are angling to create some late space since the cash outlay would be down to $1MM at that time.

The challenge here for Arizona is that a lot of the recent deals signed were backloaded to mitigate the escrow risk. With a declining escrow rate in this CBA, players were more willing to get more money later knowing they’d be able to keep it. As a result, there aren’t as many Andrew Ladd-like deals out there anymore to be made where they can keep the salary cost down, a restriction that isn’t in place for a team like, say, Chicago who has to spend to get to the floor. That’s going to make it hard for the Coyotes to add notable assets on this front.

Having said that, it wouldn’t shock me if they went and added another LTIR player. Toronto’s Jake Muzzin would be a top target along those lines as his salary after his signing bonus drops to $2MM and as long as that contract is insured, they’d only pay a chunk of that. Brent Seabrook (Tampa Bay) is in a similar situation. The trade returns on players like this aren’t great as evidenced by the Weber and Voracek moves but assets are assets and I don’t think they have a lot of budget room to work with.

Nha Trang: Who will be this year’s John Druce: the guy who comes from nowhere to light it up and make a stab at the Smythe?

Based on how things have gone in the first round so far, the best answer I can think of here is Laurent Brossoit. My one concern for Vegas in their series against Winnipeg was goaltending but Brossoit more than got the job done. The Golden Knights are a deep team and if Brossoit does well enough to help them keep moving on, he’d probably at least garner some consideration if they made it to the Stanley Cup Final and he was still between the pipes.

I know the situations aren’t the best from a direct comparison – Brossoit is a veteran and Druce had his breakout performance in his sophomore year. But Brossoit was in the minors less than three months ago, basically a complete afterthought. If you’re not even in the league as of a few months ago, that’s good enough for me to qualify as coming out of nowhere.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Kuznetsov, Sabres, Predators, Maple Leafs, Coaches

April 23, 2023 at 8:02 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, Toronto’s recent history of first-round exits, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

2012orioles: Do the Capitals look to shop Kuznetsov?

First, GM Brian MacLellan needs to sit down with Kuznetsov’s new agents at Newport to see what the center’s preference is. It’s no secret that they were listening to offers on him a couple of years ago although nothing came to fruition in terms of a deal. Since then, the 30-year-old has had one strong season (78 points in 79 games in 2021-22) and one underwhelming campaign (55 points in 81 games this season).

Kuznetsov only has two years left on his deal after this one which actually helps Washington a bit if they do look to move him. Yes, his price tag of $7.8MM is on the high end, especially if he keeps hovering in the 50-60-point range but a team that’s looking for a short-term stopgap until a prospect is ready for that role could find him more desirable than someone who’s signed long-term, even if that player has a lesser AAV. I’m not saying they’d get a premium return or anything but I think there would be a decent trade market.

But at the end of the day, the answer to this question is likely dictated by MacLellan’s intentions for next season. If they’re rebuilding, he probably goes. If they’re looking for a quick retool and to get back in the playoff picture next season, I think Kuznetsov stays, barring a public trade request that might force their hand. With Nicklas Backstrom no longer the player he once was and their young middlemen (Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre) not ready for tough NHL minutes yet, they need Kuznetsov if they’re aiming for a Wild Card spot or better next season.

joebad34: Do the Sabres move on from Okposo and Girgensons? What defenseman would they potentially look to pursue in a trade or free agency to fill a top-four spot? Is Dumba a fit?

Let’s start with the forwards. If Kyle Okposo wants to come back, I think Buffalo will have a spot for him. It might not be particularly high on the depth chart but I suspect they’d like to keep their captain in the fold as this is still a pretty young roster overall. This is a group that will have playoff aspirations next season so having a veteran that has the respect of the team wouldn’t hurt. Plus, Okposo can still be effective in a limited role.

I don’t expect Zemgus Girgensons to be back though. If they want to make a push for a postseason spot, they’ll need to upgrade their roster this summer and that’s one roster spot they can upgrade on. Girgensons is a capable fourth-line pivot but after nine years with Buffalo, a change of scenery wouldn’t hurt.

As for the defensemen, Mathew Dumba is a logical target on the free agent market. He’s capable of logging big minutes and plays on the right side which is where their depth is a bit weak. I also think there’s a bit of an upside play in signing him if he can get back to his old form. The one question I have though is how much does Buffalo want to spend long-term on the back end? Rasmus Dahlin is going to be very expensive in 2024-25 as will Owen Power. Mattias Samuelsson is already on a long-term deal. You’re probably looking at well over $20MM for those three at that time; can they afford another bigger-ticket deal in their salary structure and if they can, do they want to?

As for other free agent targets, Damon Severson is also in Dumba’s tier but the same questions exist. If they want to go for a shorter-term pickup, Kevin Shattenkirk and John Klingberg are veteran right-shot players that could give them an offensive boost, take a regular shift, and balance out the lineup without being a long-term commitment on the books. If they’re shopping in the short-term tier, Anthony DeAngelo could be a trade target and if Nashville sticks with the rebuild, Tyson Barrie should be available as well. They’re both on expiring deals which might be appealing.

Gbear: Does new Preds GM Barry Trotz keep John Hynes behind the bench or move on from him?

Jakeattack: Do you think Trotz will try to move either Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene this summer?

Let’s combine the Nashville queries. Two months ago, I would have leaned toward a coaching change. The fire sale was on and if a new era was beginning, why not do so with a new coach? But then the Predators had quite a run down the stretch with the team coming to life. If Trotz thinks there’s any chance of that being sustainable, it’d be hard to move on from Hynes.

He has one year left on his deal which gives Trotz an easy option to kick the can down the road. Let him start on an expiring contract and if things go sideways early on, make an in-season change for an interim option and at that point, it’s probably heading toward a rebuild. If things go well, let the season play out and re-assess 12 months from now. I think he stays but I will say this, I am not doing well at predicting what happens in Nashville this season and if recent history repeats itself, this prediction might not hold up for long.

Unlike that coaching prediction, I’m actually confident in this next one. Yes, Trotz will try to move those two, Johansen especially. At $8MM apiece for at least two more years (Johansen is signed through 2024-25, Duchene 2025-26), they’re not getting a great return on those deals. Neither has emerged as a capable top center and while Duchene’s a capable number two, that’s a big price tag for someone in that role. That money could likely be more efficiently spent elsewhere.

Of course, 31 other teams around the league know that. The time to move Duchene was probably a year ago when he had 43 goals and 86 points. His performance this season only dipped his value. Johansen, meanwhile, is coming off a 28-point campaign, albeit one that saw him miss 27 games due to injuries. Unless they’re swapping a bad contract for another bad contract (and in a market where so many teams are capped out, that can’t entirely be ruled out), I don’t expect there to be any interest in him. Trotz I’m sure will try to move these contracts but it’ll be much easier said than done.

W H Twittle: Is there a rational explanation for the Leafs’ playoff successes?

Assuming you mean their lack of playoff success, I think there is. In those series, they lost the goaltending battle. In 2017, it was Braden Holtby allowing two goals or fewer in three games, all Toronto losses. In 2018, Tuukka Rask wasn’t great in that series but he outplayed Frederik Andersen. The next year, Rask was much better.

In the bubble, Columbus’ goalies picked two shutouts in five games. A year later, Carey Price did just enough to outduel Jack Campbell to kickstart Montreal’s improbable run to the Final. And last season, Andrei Vasilevskiy was between the pipes. All in all, three future Hall of Famers, another goalie who led his team to the Stanley Cup, and Columbus’ netminders shining.

One can discuss the coaching and the underachieving stars and that’s fine. But if you’re looking for a quick, simple, rational explanation, Toronto got ‘goalied’ in several of their recent quick playoff exits.

Gmm8811: Who do you see as up-and-coming AHL coaches? Have you heard of any recent former players that want to make the jump to coaching?

If you’re asking about up-and-coming AHL coaches that could soon make the jump to the NHL, Mitch Love (Calgary) should be the first to come to mind. He just won Coach of the Year there for the second season in a row and had a good run with WHL Saskatoon before that. Just 38, he’s the type of young coach that someone should take a chance on. I’d also put Marco Sturm in that mix. He’s the coach of the Kings’ affiliate in Ontario. With his experience there plus internationally as a coach, I think he’ll get a chance at some point.

As for recent former players, those that want to coach somewhere typically are able to do so, either at the junior or minor league level. Accordingly, I don’t really have a list of former players that are looking to join those ranks; if they want to, they’re probably already there. I’ll give you one name to keep an eye on though in Marc Savard, head coach with OHL Windsor. While they were a surprisingly quick exit in the playoffs this year, that franchise has done pretty well in his limited time there and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone offers him an AHL head coaching job or an assistant spot on an NHL bench for next season.

hunterdog: Any NHL coaching spots opening up for Rand Pecknold after leading Quinnipiac to the National Championship?

Generally speaking, it’s not very often that a coach goes directly from college to the NHL as his first professional coaching experience. I think it’s only happened four times, five if you want to count David Quinn who went from Boston University to the Rangers but he had some AHL assistant time beforehand. Jim Montgomery and Dave Hakstol are the others to do so within the last decade.

Is it possible that Pecknold joins that list? Sure. But there aren’t a lot of vacancies out there and of the ones that are, the only one that seems like a semi-realistic possibility would be Anaheim, a team that’s still firmly in their rebuild. (Columbus struggled but that’s a team that I think will be looking to get back in the playoff race before long and might not want a first-time pro coach.) A list of one team that he might fit with doesn’t give him great odds.

For those not familiar with Pecknold, he has been at Quinnipiac for nearly 30 years dating back to when they were playing at the Division II level. He has coached internationally at the junior and men’s levels which certainly helps. But if he wants a shot at an NHL coaching job, I think he’ll need to go somewhere as an assistant first and then, after a couple of years, he might have a better shot than he would now.

The Duke: Switching gears from the Crystal Ball this time: I’m wondering if you (or any reader) knows of a website or two where one can “build” their own fantasy hockey keeper league scoring mechanism (only need goals/assists/GA stats)? Thanks in advance.

Admittedly, I’m not a big poolie so I might not be the best one to ask here. I play in a couple of leagues, one of which I run through Yahoo. That one has customizable scoring settings where you can pick your scoring categories and it does have a keeper option. But that site (or ESPN, another fairly popular one) is typically for a league with a draft every year. I know there is an import roster option in Yahoo so maybe that’s one to try either way. Officepools is one I’ve heard some good things about but have never tried for myself. Readers, if you know of others out there, please post them in the comments.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

April 20, 2023 at 6:15 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 31 Comments

We’re at the time of year when the field of focus for NHL fans splits evenly into two, with some eagerly watching postseason hockey while others look ahead to next season. Keeping that in mind, it’s time for another edition of the #PHRMailbag as teams’ trajectories have become clearer with the regular season behind us.

Our last mailbag focused on the future in Philadelphia, potential roster decisions in Pittsburgh, and what might happen with Toronto management.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

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Extending Jack Eichel Will Be A Top Priority For Golden Knights

Ryane Clowe Steps Down From Sharks’ Assistant GM Role

Hurricanes Sign Kevin Labanc To Professional Tryout

Flames Sign Connor Zary To Three-Year Contract

Ken Dryden Passes Away At 78

Sharks Acquire Carey Price’s Contract From Canadiens

Derek Ryan Announces Retirement

2025 NHL Training Camp Rosters

Marco Scandella Confirms Retirement

Changes To LTIR Will Take Effect For 2025-26, Other CBA Changes Moved Up

Summer Synopsis: Pittsburgh Penguins

Snapshots: Evangelista, Barzal, Jarvis, Luypen

Predators Sign Dylan Gambrell To PTO

Afternoon Notes: Trenton, Bruins, Senators, Flames

Kings In No Rush To Shop Brandt Clarke

Adam Fantilli’s Camp Wants To Wait On Extension Talks With Blue Jackets

Prospect Notes: Luchanko, Yurov, Marrelli

Brad Hunt Expected To Sign In Finland

Rangers Hire Ryane Clowe, Promote Jim Sullivan And Ryan Martin

Rangers Hire Blake Wheeler, Three Others To Hockey Operations Roles

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