PHR Mailbag

The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away and activity is starting to pick up around the league.  However, with this being a unique year in terms of so many teams being up against the salary cap, it’s likely to be a unique deadline.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.  If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. The first discussed Jake DeBrusk’s struggles in Boston and his potential to be moved, what New Jersey needs to, plus some thoughts on the upcoming UFA goalie market.  The second looked at the idea that the Sharks could be buyers at the deadline, what Dougie Hamilton’s next contract might look like, and the never-ending search for a top-line center in Columbus.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.  The mailbag will run this weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago’s surprising first half, San Jose’s trade deadline plans, an emerging line for Toronto, Carolina’s top pending UFA, trade options for Detroit, goaltending forecasts, Boston’s potential for a big addition, what’s next for Jim Rutherford, and Columbus’ never-ending quest for help down the middle.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

parx: What is to be made of the Blackhawks? I honestly thought they would be awful but I’m enjoying this season more than past few, are they good or decent? Is this a mirage? What the hell is going on?

I think decent is the right word here.  They’ve had a few things go their way including Patrick Kane stepping up his game to another level, Kevin Lankinen at least temporarily solving the goaltending question, and some unheralded newcomers (Pius Suter, Philipp Kurashev, and even Mattias Janmark) all probably exceeding expectations.  Give GM Stan Bowman some credit, these under-the-radar moves have all worked out.

But at the same time, I have trouble thinking that Chicago is a top-ten team offensively over a full season (they currently sit seventh).  Lankinen has tailed off a bit lately and Malcolm Subban isn’t the solution in that number one role.  They’re also benefiting from Columbus underachieving, Nashville falling off the proverbial cliff, and Dallas scuffling with their injuries plus the starts and stops to their season.  A lot has gone better than expected.

The good news is that they’re somewhat comfortably in a playoff spot without a lot of pressure at the moment.  Kirby Dach is skating and should be back before the season is out which would be a nice addition up front.  It’s definitely a positive season for them but I’d caution against elevating expectations too much or thinking that their plans have been accelerated.  They’re on the rise but I wouldn’t call them good just yet.

mz90gu: The Sharks almost always make trades at the deadline. They do have some cap space; do you see them as buyer/seller maybe take on a contract for an additional pick?

It’s hard to see them being a buyer in the traditional sense given that they are nine points out of a playoff spot with three teams to leapfrog in the West Division.  But it wouldn’t surprise me to see them add a veteran player.

Cap space is at a premium this season and as you rightly note, that’s something they have a lot of.  As things stand, they could add nearly $9MM on deadline day, per CapFriendly.  While they probably shouldn’t be adding to try to make a failed run, how valuable is that space to other teams?  Taking on a contract to pick up an extra draft pick or prospect makes a lot of sense for San Jose whose system isn’t exactly the strongest.  Even acting as a third-party retainer in a trade while adding another asset (much like Toronto did in the Robin Lehner trade at the deadline last year) would be useful as long as it’s an expiring contract.

Of course, in a year like this, there are budgetary considerations at play and majority owner Hasso Plattner may not be thrilled about the idea of spending more money in a year where they’re probably not making the playoffs.  But if he’s okay with it, I think San Jose would be wise to add a player or two but more importantly, pick up the younger assets that would go along with facilitating the opportunity to help another team make a move.  Having said that, I wouldn’t be shocked if they look to move out a pending UFA or two as well.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Thoughts on the Maple Leafs’ new MEH line. Mikheyev, Engvall and Hyman?

I’ll resist the temptation to say the obvious but that line has been quite strong since it has been put together though it’s not one that is always together from shift to shift.  Zach Hyman, in particular, is having another strong season to the point where he may very well be playing his way off the team in that he’ll be too expensive to keep around.

This is what Toronto needed with their collection of lower-salaried players.  They need a few of them to develop some chemistry to create a reliable unit that’s greater than the sum of its individual parts.  This line does that.

I’d caution to enjoy it while it lasts, however.  At some point, Hyman will spend more time on the top line than with these two (yesterday’s game had him back with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner) and when Wayne Simmonds returns, I’m not sure they’ll be able to afford to carry Pierre Engvall on the roster anymore.  Simmonds is on LTIR and right now, Toronto isn’t in cap compliance to be able to activate him.  They have no regulars that are waiver exempt so someone is getting exposed and with most of Engvall’s $1.25MM price tag being able to come off the books if he was to clear, he may wind up being the casualty.

mikedickinson: Dougie Hamilton. What do the Canes pay their third-best defenseman, especially with how well Jake Bean is playing?

This is going to be an interesting case.  Hamilton has been great for Carolina and even with his offensive numbers taking a dip relative to last year, he’s still playing at a 63-point pace over a full 82-game season (compared to a 70-point pace last year).  His minutes are still that of a top-pairing player which is how his agent J.P. Barry will undoubtedly try to market him.  That Carolina plays others ahead of him and has Bean having a good season is largely irrelevant to Hamilton’s case.  His numbers show he’s a top-pairing defenseman which are hard to come by, he’s in the prime of his career at 27, and is a right-shot player (the harder to get side).  If the Hurricanes want to pay him relative to his role on the depth chart, a deal probably doesn’t get done.

Last week when word came out that talks between the two sides had stalled, Alex Pietrangelo ($8.8MM) and Torey Krug ($6.5MM) were suggested as the potential targets for each side.  I think the likeliest outcome is a bit lower than the midpoint, something around $7.4MM to $7.5MM.  We saw in October’s free agent market that top blueliners still got paid so even with a flattened salary cap, Hamilton will get a big raise from his $5.75MM price tag.  Can GM Don Waddell justify that price tag with nearly $20MM in commitments to defense already for next season and several other key pieces needing new contracts?  I think it should be.  Their success comes from having an elite back end and Hamilton is a big part of it.  Re-signing him may force them to part with Brady Skjei or try to entice a taker for Jake Gardiner’s deal but it’d be awfully tough to let a top-quality blueliner walk for free in a few months.

tigers22: Which Red Wings player would bring back the biggest return at the trade deadline and what kind of package would they get Mantha or Bertuzzi?

Anthony Mantha’s value this year has taken a tumble.  Last season, a reasonable asking price would have been a first-round pick, a high-quality prospect, and probably some sort of cap filler.  But this season has been a struggle and that’s putting it lightly.  His point per game production is at the lowest rate of his career (beyond his rookie year where he played in just 10 games) and his trade value is probably at its lowest point.  With three years left after this at a $5.7MM cap hit, the teams that would be calling GM Steve Yzerman at this point would be ones looking to swap similarly underachieving $5MM-plus forwards.  That wouldn’t make any sense for Detroit.

So by default, the answer here would be Tyler Bertuzzi even though he hasn’t played a game since the end of January due to an upper-body injury.  He’s a bit cheaper and the injury is going to limit his earning ceiling through arbitration this summer so that’s at least somewhat palatable to some teams.  But no one is giving up any sort of top-end value for someone who hasn’t played in six weeks and doesn’t appear to be anywhere near close to returning so Yzerman has no reason to even consider a Bertuzzi trade at this time.  If he was inclined to move him for whatever reason, the offseason would be the time.

In terms of who actually fetches the best return for Detroit between now and next month’s trade deadline, I think it’s Luke Glendening.  He has been in deadline speculation for a few years now but with his contract expiring, this is the time to make a move.  He’s still elite at the faceoff dot and there will be contenders willing to pay for that while his $1.8MM AAV will be easier to work in to a cap-strapped roster than someone like Mantha.  It won’t be a package of high picks and prospects (a second-rounder is about the top end of what they could try to ask for) but they can still add more assets.

The Duke: Any Crystal Ball visions for Jamie Drysdale, Rasmus Sandin and Arizona’s, Winnipeg’s and Nashville’s goaltending into the next few seasons?

Drysdale: Let me first say that I like that Anaheim is holding him in the minors and not bringing him up.  Could he help the Ducks now?  Sure, but I don’t want to burn an entry-level year in a season where they’re not going anywhere.  The AHL is still a good level to develop at and if they hold him down there long enough, they could conceivably recall him to the NHL roster if and when the OHL starts without being on the roster (active or healthy scratch) for enough games to accrue a season of service time.  He will be a top-pairing defender in the near future but while he may get there quicker if he was up now, he’ll be well worth the wait.

Sandin: This season is quickly turning into a write-off after he suffered a foot injury in his first AHL contest of the year.  This will slow his development but it shouldn’t hurt too much in the long run.  Toronto’s cap situation could force Sandin onto their roster next season anyway but he’s someone that will need to be developed a bit slower than Drysdale as Sandin doesn’t have the all-around game that the Anaheim blueliner does.  I don’t think he has top-pairing upside but if he became a 20-minute per game player with some offensive punch, the Maple Leafs would be quite pleased with that outcome.

Coyotes: The goaltending is a bit concerning beyond next season.  It’s hard to imagine Antti Raanta (UFA this summer) returns next season while Adin Hill (pending RFA) could be a backup but isn’t going to push for the number one role.  That leaves Darcy Kuemper as the only other and he’s just signed through 2021-22 and given his injury trouble, it’s hard to see him being the long-term starter though they’d probably like to have him as a 1B option.  I expect they will be shopping on the 2021-22 market for their longer-term option.

Jets: Connor Hellebuyck has three years left on his deal at a more than fair $6.167MM AAV and at this point, I see no reason to think why they wouldn’t offer an extension.  Of the three goalies they have on NHL deals in the system, I don’t see an NHL option out of any of them so they’ll be playing the UFA roulette market for backups.  Laurent Brossoit is doing well enough to earn another contract but given his inconsistency year-to-year, I wouldn’t go more than a year at a time with him.

Predators: Long term, Yaroslav Askarov is their guy, at least they hope he is but he’s a few years away.  Juuse Saros’ season has not been one to inspire confidence that he can be the full-fledged starter next year so I believe they’ll inquire if Pekka Rinne wants to retire or perhaps push that back a year.  Failing that, a short-term veteran platoon goalie (Raanta, Jonathan Bernier, or even David Rittich if they want a bit of upside) would be a likely target in July.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for the Flames, an underachieving winger in Boston, rebuilding New Jersey, projecting the most prominent player moved at the trade deadline, the futures of Ralph Krueger and Jared Bednar, thoughts a Minnesota forward who has produced in the minors yet hasn’t had much of an opportunity, looking at the free agent goalie market, and a first in the history of this mailbag column (spanning more than four years).  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s piece.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What do you do if you’re the Flames? I know the Markstrom injury is unfortunate but this season must be a disappointment as of now.

Clearly, this question came before Thursday night’s coaching change but I can safely say my answer wouldn’t have been hiring Darryl Sutter on a three-year contract though his style may wind up being the kick that the team ultimately needs.  But with that having now been done, let’s look ahead past that.

I’d like to see their top four defensemen get a bit more playing time; they don’t have anyone at 22 minutes a game.  Having some balance isn’t necessarily a bad thing but I don’t think giving Nikita Nesterov 16 minutes a game is the best usage for him, especially with his struggles in his own end.  On the flip side, the fourth line has been underused; bringing Glenn Gawdin in to play less than six minutes a game is really pointless.  The fourth line can’t be that much of a liability nowadays.

Unfortunately, this is not a season where Canadian teams will be able to trade their way out of their troubles.  The two-week quarantine for players coming from the other 24 teams is going to act as more of a deterrent now than it did earlier in the year and while it doesn’t make a trade impossible, it doesn’t make one likely.  What they have now is what they’re going to need to work with moving forward but if they can make a small move, I’d look for a third-pairing blueliner and some upgraded forward depth by the deadline.

I’m intrigued to see how Sam Bennett fares under Sutter; I think he will benefit a lot from the change.  They’ll play with more of an edge now and I think that will suit Bennett just fine.  Jacob Markstrom returning will certainly help as well.  This isn’t a year where Calgary is going to contend but at the same time, they’re within striking distance of a playoff spot and the teams directly ahead of them have their own flaws.  After this coaching change, it’ll just be small tweaks and that may very well be enough to get in.

@jrice521: I don’t see how the Bruins keep DeBrusk at the trade deadline. His production is virtually nothing. One goal to date on the season. Shouldn’t they try to pry Virtanen out of Vancouver? They probably both need a change of scenery!

There’s no denying that Jake DeBrusk is having a tough year and he is definitely a change of scenery candidate as a result.  So too is Jake Virtanen and in theory, the idea has a bit of merit.

From Boston’s perspective, Virtanen has the weaker track record and a lengthier history of inconsistent play so there is some risk.  But they also would benefit from the cheaper cap hit in terms of freeing up a bit more flexibility to add another piece and also would appreciate the cheaper qualifying offer in the 2022 offseason.

However, that same reason is why Vancouver doesn’t do the deal.  Virtanen’s $3.4MM price tag next season (in terms of salary plus signing bonus) was a big reason the trade talks with Anaheim didn’t go anywhere and DeBrusk’s pay checks in at $4.85MM next year.  I suspect Vancouver’s interest in Danton Heinen was more centered around the expiring contract where he could be non-tendered with the team then getting out of that final year of Virtanen’s obligation.  While DeBrusk is the more proven player, that extra cost in terms of real money and cap space isn’t going to go over well, especially since big-ticket deals for Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes are on the immediate horizon.

This is a season where quite a few of the trades made in the coming weeks will likely involve swapping change of scenery players so this type of move makes some sense on paper but the economic element probably stops it from happening, at least straight up.

SpeakOfTheDevil: What sort of adjustments do the Devils need to make to finally get out of this ongoing rebuild? I honestly want to know how you would make this team better.

Most teams in the league have some sort of identity.  Some are defense-first that rely on the goaltending, others have high-end offenses.  Some really like to push the pace.  I honestly have no idea what New Jersey’s identity is.  They’ve been trying to make incremental upgrades to deepen their roster which is an okay starting spot but at some point, you have to pick a direction and build around that.  They seem to want to build around their attack so I’ll make my plan based on that.

Goaltending – There isn’t much I’d do here.  I liked the Corey Crawford signing to give Mackenzie Blackwood some insurance and it’s not New Jersey’s fault that Crawford had a last-minute change of heart.  Adding another similar veteran next year would be ideal.

Defense – Having puck-movers that can accelerate the attack is all well and good but they need someone who can actually defend in their own end as well.  I liked the Ryan Murray addition for that reason and leveraging their cap room to do something like that again would work.  Will Butcher is an expensive extraneous piece right now; if they’re content with their puck-movers, try to flip him for a more stable defensive defender.  Their atrocious penalty kill (which sits at 62.5% heading into Saturday’s game) will improve as a result.

Forwards – Sell out for high-end skill on the wing.  It’s great to have seven or eight wingers capable of scoring double-digit goals.  But those players shouldn’t be on the top two lines.  Unfortunately, their only true top-six winger is Kyle Palmieri, a pending UFA.  They’re set down the middle with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Pavel Zacha.  But for them to truly reach their ceiling, they need wingers that are capable of producing consistently and they don’t have that.  I recognize that they’re not a free agent destination but in this cap environment, them having more cap room than most counts for a lot.  And if they can’t add an impact UFA, then leverage that cap space into adding an impact player; don’t settle for another Andreas Johnsson.

There’s a decent young core foundation in place with their centers, Blackwood, and Ty Smith.  That’s a good start but until they can supplement them with impact wingers and not just above-average role players, they’re going to spin their tires.  Unfortunately for GM Tom Fitzgerald, accomplishing that is something that’s easier said than done but they can’t have another offseason of incremental upgrades if they want to take that next step.

DarkSide830: Biggest name dealt at the deadline?

I know Taylor Hall is open to staying in Buffalo and the Sabres would like to have him back but I think it’s Hall that will be the biggest name moved.  Given how much the 29-year-old has struggled this season, it’s hard to see the two sides agreeing on a price point for a long-term extension that both sides will be happy with.  Hall went to the Sabres in part to try to prove that he’s still a top-line player with an eye on securing the lucrative long-term contract he couldn’t get in October.  Now, he needs to get out of Buffalo to accomplish the very thing he signed there to do.

From Buffalo’s perspective, they’re almost certainly missing the playoffs again so there’s no reason to hold onto him if there’s no extension in place.  If they’re willing to retain, they should be able to land a decent return (not quite what the Devils got a year ago, however) as $4MM for a second-liner which is more of where he should be valued isn’t impossible.  The Sabres will need to take a contract back but there’s a suitable trade to be made.

LarryJ4: Does it look as clear to you as it does to me that the Sabres GM Kevyn Adams is completely handcuffed by Pegula when it comes to Krueger? If you had to choose between the next coach for Buffalo, who would it be? I’m hearing more Gallant than Boudreau but I think with the mix we have Boudreau would be better. Oh, and a goalie is needed as a stop-gap?

I don’t think Adams is being handcuffed by ownership when it comes to Krueger.  Adams has been on the job for all of 22 games and doesn’t have the prior front office experience to have a better feel for things.  When you’re wading through your first experiences, the logical step is to ere on the side of caution.  In this case, it’s keeping Krueger around and trying to be patient.  He can wait to make the move in the offseason if he needs to where he’d have a slightly better foundation to draw from or if things keep going off the rails, sometime between now and then.

I’m not sure Gerard Gallant takes the Buffalo job if it was to be offered to him.  This is not a situation that looks overly desirable from the outside given the turnover they’ve had and the fact they’re perpetually not improving.  He can afford to be selective.  Bruce Boudreau does make some sense though.  This team can’t score and he has been known to get his teams to at least average in that regard.  Even that would be an improvement.  Is Boudreau the coach to take Buffalo back to the promised land?  No, but he’d lay a better foundation for whoever comes after him.  If the Sabres were to make a coaching move, he would make some sense.

If Adams thinks they can stay in the playoff race, then yes, a stopgap goalie needs to be added.  I was shocked that they passed on Alex Stalock as he felt like the perfect fit though given what he just went through, maybe there were some lingering health concerns on Buffalo’s end.  But if they’re going to throw in the towel and sell, I’d give Jonas Johansson a longer look.  Can he be the future backup?  Now is as good a time as any to try and find out.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Ottawa’s slow start, Philadelphia’s defensive concerns, Boston’s trade deadline approach, comments on several young centers, David Quinn’s future with the Rangers, plus Pittsburgh’s defense situation and their quiet start to the season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

JDGoat: Who is on the hotter seat right now, D.J. Smith or Pierre Dorion?

Can I choose neither of them?  What has played out in Ottawa so far this season can’t be considered all that surprising.  Yes, Matt Murray’s struggles early on were a bit odd which contributed to them getting run out of the rink a few too many times but he has been better since then and the Sens have been more competitive the last couple of weeks.

Heading into this season, everyone knew there were going to be growing pains.  There are six teams in the North Division that have win-now aspirations with Ottawa being the one with an eye on the future.  The divisional reshuffling didn’t do them any favors, that’s for sure.  Dorion has been able to get this far in his rebuilding plan so there’s not much point in changing course now.  Smith has been the head coach for less than 100 games with a roster that isn’t up to par with that of the top teams in the division.  That’s hardly enough time to assess whether he’s really the right fit for the job.

It’s not all doom and gloom for the Senators though.  I think they can be one of the more under-the-radar teams in the second half of the season as their many youngsters settle in and start getting adjusted to day-to-day NHL life.  I expect they’ll win more than many expect down the stretch.  That will be a better measuring stick for Smith’s coaching ability and how Dorion’s long-term plan is coming along.

DarkSide830: What’s Philly’s best solution to their defense issues?

Short of dragging Matt Niskanen away from his ice fishing in retirement, you mean?  When everyone is healthy, I’d try to limit the number of games that Erik Gustafsson and Shayne Gostisbehere play.  They’re both capable offensive weapons but neither are particularly adept in their own end.  You can get away with one in but if both are, they run the risk of some defensive issues (against the upside of a bit more production).

I don’t think there is much they necessarily can do.  Travis Sanheim and Philippe Myers are still pretty young and there are going to be growing pains.  Even Ivan Provorov’s 24, the same age as Myers.  There’s still some defensive development that’s going to come when the core of the back end is as young as it is.  They basically have to ride it out.

What will help is that Sean Couturier’s back.  He’s not a defenseman but any time you add a Selke winner to your lineup, good things are going to happen.  Couturier knows the defensive coverages and knows where to be but perhaps more importantly, where others should be and he can call that out on the ice.  There’s a lot of value in that.  Philadelphia undoubtedly missed his offensive production while he was out but he’ll be a huge difference-maker defensively as well which will give the Flyers a big boost.

VonBrewski: Much to my surprise, the Bruins have done well out of the gate. So, I have two questions. Can they trade John Moore to free up cap space? And who do they target at the trade deadline? Thank you for what you do.

You’re not going to like the answer to the first question.  No, they can’t move Moore to free up cap space.  He’s best utilized as a sixth or seventh option.  In this marketplace, that’s someone making $1MM or so, not $2.75MM for this year plus two more.  That’s just too much money for a depth player and even if they retained half of the contract, they’re not going to find many takers.  Could they move him for another similarly-priced underachiever?  There’s a slightly higher chance of that happening but the likeliest scenario is he sticks around.

As for who they target at the deadline, that’s hard to call at this point considering how few teams are out of the playoff picture at this point.  There’s Ottawa, Detroit, and, well, that’s about it.  Every other team is within five points of a playoff spot so right now, we don’t know who most of the sellers will be.

In terms of what I’d be expecting GM Don Sweeney to look for, I’d still have a proven left defenseman at the top of the list.  They’re getting good results from Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon which lessens the short-term need but if you’re a team with eyes on a long playoff run, can you have two near-rookies in big roles?  I’m sure they’d feel more confident with a more proven option.  Beyond that, there’s still a need for secondary scoring help despite the fact they’ve tried to address it so many times already.

One element that really works in Boston’s favor is the salary cap.  Many contenders are right up against it while they are pegged to be nearly $3MM under it.  Come trade deadline time, that’s worth roughly $13MM in full-season cap hits which would give them a huge boost in terms of being able to actually afford a big-ticket acquisition without having to offset money somehow.  Lots can change and injuries can cut into that in a hurry but the benefit to not adding much in the offseason is that they’ll have the ability to make some in-season pickups without much difficulty.

The Duke: What are your short- and long-term thoughts regarding PLD, Kotkaniemi, Necas and Ingram/Nashville’s goaltending?

Pierre-Luc Dubois – I don’t think this was the preferred destination he had in mind when he wanted out but I like the fit with Winnipeg.  He was pushed into the 1C role by default in Columbus but would have been better served with a more proven option in front of him to help him develop.  He’ll get that benefit now with Mark Scheifele ahead of him on the depth chart.  It may not be great for his short-term numbers but in the long run, he’ll be better prepared for his next chance at being the top center.  I don’t expect that opportunity will be with the Jets though.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi – The exploits of his linemate in Tyler Toffoli have helped keep the spotlight off of him in what has been a fairly quiet start to the season with just a goal and six assists in 14 games.  He has progressed a bit from last season’s disaster which Montreal has to be content with although they quietly were likely hoping for a bigger leap on the offensive front.  He’s still one of the youngest players in the league despite this being his third season (he’s still only 20) so there is plenty of development to go.  I’m not overly confident that he can become Montreal’s top center of the future which they were hoping for when they drafted him third overall in 2018 but with the acquisition and emergence of Nick Suzuki, there’s at least a bit less pressure on Kotkaniemi.  If Suzuki eventually becomes that 1C and Kotkaniemi falls in behind him, the Canadiens should be in good shape.

Martin Necas – He has slowly and steadily progressed so Carolina has to be pleased with what they’re getting from him early on with his ice time up around 18 minutes per game.  A player four years removed from being a first-round pick being in the top six is a more than acceptable development timeline.  I do, however, wonder about his long-term position.  He was supposed to be a key center of the future but things have changed since then.  Sebastian Aho has adapted perfectly to playing down the middle, Jordan Staal is still around, and they added Vincent Trocheck at the trade deadline.  While the latter came at a price tag that was too good to pass up on, there’s an opportunity cost in that it takes away reps at center for Necas.  I’d like to see them find a way to move him to center at times this season, even if it means dropping him down to the third line as, from a long-term development standpoint, they’d be better off if he’s at least comfortable at center in the NHL.

Connor Ingram – While not having him as their insurance policy hurts (he’s in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program), I don’t think it changes much in the short-term.  Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros were going to be the tandem one way or the other this season.  Long term, Yaroslav Askarov is the starter of the future and that still hasn’t changed.  I suspect they were hoping Ingram could be the backup next year and that could still happen – these program entries don’t come with defined absence times so it is possible that he’s back at some point this season.  If not, it pushes them to ask Rinne to stick around for another year or they turn to free agency for a veteran replacement.

MZ311: If NYR ends up firing Quinn (big mistake if they do), who do you see as the long-term successor?

First, I don’t expect David Quinn to be let go.  While the acquisition of Artemi Panarin and the late-season playoff push have raised expectations, this is still not a team that’s quite ready to contend just yet.  There are still plenty of young players going through the ups and downs of developing at the NHL level.  That’s not necessarily a coaching flaw but a reality that most young players face, even the higher-end prospects.  I believe John Davidson and Jeff Gorton are patient enough to recognize that and if they are, there’s little reason to make a coaching change.

But for the sake of the question, let’s say they do.  Is a veteran like Mike Babcock or Bruce Boudreau a good fit for a team that’s still developing a lot of youngsters?  Probably not.  Gerard Gallant is still out there but even he’s a coach that probably benefits from a more veteran-laden team.  None have particularly long shelf lives either and the Rangers will want someone for longer than that instead of a quick fix.  I believe Kris Knoblauch, their coach at AHL Hartford, is their preferred eventual replacement for Quinn but this is only his second season and neither of them are full campaigns.  With Knoblauch not being ready though, it’s hard to see Quinn being let go anytime soon.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the COVID-19 situation around the league, Carolina’s goaltending situation, what’s next for Anthony DeAngelo, Ottawa’s early defensive struggles, surprises in Chicago, and Jim Benning’s future in Vancouver.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

MoneyBallJustWorks: When does the NHL start to get concerned about the # of COVID cases and rescheduling of games?

aloop: Is the league okay with (should it happen) having teams who have played less than 56 games in the playoffs?  Or if the Olympics get nixed again (as was the rumor a few weeks ago) are they okay with extending the season, so long as they can get the 2021-2022 season started on time?

I think they’re already starting to get concerned.  It’s one thing to have a team or two being in a situation where games are being missed but we’re currently at four (Buffalo, Colorado, Minnesota, and New Jersey) and Vegas only ended their pause just yesterday.  It’s not good from a health and safety standpoint both in terms of having more players getting the virus but also in terms of having those teams trying to complete their schedule in a shortened timeframe.  Even with reduced travel, that’s not ideal.  While they undoubtedly knew this was a possibility, they’re certainly not happy with the current state of things.

With regards to the number of games played, the goal, of course, remains for everyone to play 56 games and it’s believed they feel they have a buffer of a week or so after the season that they can reschedule games if necessary.  What helps is that the playoffs are divisional so it’s not as if there is a crossover/Wild Card possibility as there typically is.  Teams in a division where everyone plays all of their games won’t be affected if another division doesn’t unless the league uses that buffer week and delays the start of the playoffs.  If they can’t get all of the games in, they could go by points percentage or even a play-in series in that buffer week.  We’re still more than three months out from the end of the season so this is a decision they hope they won’t need to make for a while.

The rumor of the Olympics being cancelled again for this summer has been debunked and all indications are that they’re going to try to hold them.  Of course, in this environment, things can change in a hurry.  In your scenario, I suppose that could buy them a bit more time to fill out the regular season if need be if teams need to get games in but otherwise, they’re going to stick with the plan.  The priority is getting 2021-22 underway at close to the usual start time and it already looks like a very quick offseason schedule.  Compressing that any further is going to result in some pushback so I don’t see the league wanting to go further in the summer even if they’re able to.

SpeakOfTheDevil: How could things have gotten so bad for the Devils who now have 14 players in COVID protocol? Does the league make adjustments to the protocol now? Who loses their job for this epic blunder?

We’re up to 16 now for New Jersey although they’ve had two come off in recent days.  We highlight it in each of our daily CPRA pieces but I’ll mention it here as well – someone’s presence on this list doesn’t necessarily mean they have the virus.  Of the 16 the Devils have, there’s a pretty good chance most don’t.  Instead, they’re a close contact of someone who does have it so erring on the side of caution, those players are also quarantining.  Optics-wise, it’s not pretty, but this probably isn’t costing anyone their job.  They knew this was a possibility when they decided to make the list available to the public.

From a protocol standpoint, we’ve seen some tweaks in recent days with regards to removing the glass behind the benches to create more of an open environment, further restrictions on in-person team meetings, and even arrival time in an attempt to limit in-arena player interactions though that last one didn’t go over well with the players.  Rapid tests in addition to the usual PCR ones are also under investigation.  More modifications are almost certain to come in the weeks and months ahead as more information is gathered.

mikedickinson: Mrazek out for a bit in Raleigh. Do they make a move or roll with Reimer and Ned in net? The team has been great this season and really think they can make a run.

I don’t think they’ll make a move for a few reasons.  One, things are going well and they could certainly stand to get a longer look at Alex Nedeljkovic to see if he could realistically be the number two option for next season with both Petr Mrazek and James Reimer set to hit unrestricted free agency next season.

The second reason is that Carolina’s system doesn’t exactly allow a lot of shots.  They’re 29th in the league in shots allowed per game at just 26.0 with Vegas and Boston allowing fewer.  The Hurricanes aren’t a team that really needs goaltenders to steal a lot of games of them; they just need adequate goaltending most nights.  Since joining them, Reimer has been capable of giving them that most of the time.

And even if they really could benefit from adding another netminder, there isn’t really anyone available that makes any sense for Carolina.  The waiver market the first three weeks has seen every goalie get plucked up to the point where more teams are just biting the bullet and carrying three on the active roster.  Knowing it’s that much harder to add that depth, the cost is going to be even more prohibitive.

Surgery went well for Mrazek and while there’s no timetable for his return, it certainly sounds like he’s expected back this season.  In the meantime, they’ll have to ride it out with what they’ve got.

met man: Who do you think will eventually wind up with DeAngelo and what type of return, if any will the Rangers get?

I know there was a report earlier this week suggesting something could be done sooner than later but I don’t see it happening.  It’s not that I don’t think there’s anyone interested – there clearly are – but in a normal year, finding a trade for someone with a $4.8MM price tag for multiple years is tricky.  This season, with half the league in LTIR already and others shuffling players back and forth to and from the taxi squad to stay compliant, there are so few realistic trade options out there.

The Rangers certainly don’t have much leverage to command much of a return but they have the right to be very picky.  As DeAngelo is just 24, a buyout on the final year would only be at a one-third rate, not the usual two-thirds.  If they went that route, his cap hit in 2021-22 would only be $383K and 2022-23 would be $883K.  Knowing that, GM Jeff Gorton probably isn’t going to have much interest in putting any significant amount of retention on DeAngelo’s contract to move him knowing the buyout is in his back pocket.  That will also limit their willingness to take a pricey contract back beyond this season to offset money.

When this all happened, Detroit was the team that came to my mind as a realistic trade candidate.  They have ample cap space and DeAngelo is young enough to conceivably become part of their core if everything went well.  And if it didn’t go well, the buyout cost isn’t that prohibitive.  They also have Marc Staal who was DeAngelo’s partner last season when he had a career year so reuniting the two could certainly make a lot of sense for them.  They have some expiring veteran contracts that could eliminate (or at least reduce) the request for New York to retain salary as well; someone like Darren Helm ($3.95MM) comes to mind.  Something like DeAngelo and a few hundred thousand of retention (up to or near what next season’s buyout cost would be) for Helm would at least give New York a roster forward in return which is a little better than having him sit out the rest of the year while waiting for a buyout and Detroit would get a possible short-term upgrade on the back end for a minimal cost.  If a trade happens, that’s the type of move I’d expect.

JDGoat: How do you see the Senators fixing their defence moving forward?. Everybody brought in this past offseason has failed miserably. Do they just have to wait and pray on Sanderson, Bernard-Docker, and the rest of their prospect pool or are there external options that make sense?

They’re off to the right start with Artem Zub starting to play now and Erik Brannstrom finally being recalled.  Are those players long-term fixtures?  Maybe, maybe not.  (They’re certainly hoping Brannstrom is given he was the centerpiece in the Mark Stone trade.)  But I can tell you that Braydon Coburn certainly isn’t in the long-term plans so there was no reason to have him in the lineup ahead of one of those two, especially in a year where they’re expected to go through some developmental growing pains.  They finally saw the writing on the wall when they waived him earlier this week.

I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Pierre Dorion has kicked the tires on more of an impact defender going back to the offseason with an eye on making a trade that’s similar to the Matt Murray one where they brought in a core piece while using some of their pick and prospect surplus although the fact nothing happened tells me they didn’t find the right match.  I expect that to continue to be explored – even if they stay in the North Division basement – as they’re not in a spot where they can be picky about when they can acquire that player.  If they can get a core defender in a trade, they need to do it even if they’re looking at high draft lottery odds.

The long-term plan is to have some of those younger prospects eventually graduate and form a back end with Thomas Chabot, Brannstrom, probably Nikita Zaitsev since he’s signed through 2023-24, and one external trade or free agent signing.  Between now and then, they’re probably just going to use this season to evaluate some of their ‘fringe’ options in players like Zub, Josh Brown, and Mike Reilly to see if any of them are worth keeping around to put with that planned group for a few years from now.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the winners and losers of the NHL’s realignment, players that benefitted the most from offseason trades, Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s scoring record, predictions for several players and the potential for fans to be allowed in arenas this season, what’s next for Boston’s back end, and how one of the top-scoring OHL players last season went undrafted.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

acarneglia: Biggest winners and losers of proposed 2021 divisions?

St. Louis and Colorado find themselves in a nice spot in the West Division.  While they now have to contend with Vegas, that’s the only other team in that group that was in the top eight in the Western Conference.  The battle for the top two spots and home ice in the first round will be tight but there are more games against weaker opponents than there would be with the normal alignment.  I’d also put Columbus and Carolina in the winner category as they get to avoid the gauntlet that is the East Division and move into a group that has more weaker opponents.  Tampa Bay and Dallas are there too but those last two spots should be easier to get than had they been assigned with the other teams in the East.

As for teams that aren’t so fortunate, I have to put Buffalo at the top of the list.  They added Taylor Hall and Eric Staal and while their team has improved, they get to play most of the top teams from the Metropolitan and don’t get to escape Boston while they’re at it.  The three Canadian teams from the Pacific Division lose the opportunity to play against some of the rebuilding and likely less competitive teams and now get to face a potent Toronto team, Montreal who improved considerably, and Winnipeg who is always in the playoff mix instead while playing a higher percentage of games outside of their time zone.  (Even Ottawa has shown improvement although their playoff hopes took a hit with this format as well.)

Eaton Harass: Which player do you feel will benefit most since changing teams this offseason? And how many times do you think Devon Toews said “thank you God” after his trade to the Avs?

I’d go with Max Domi.  He leaves a situation in Montreal where he was being squeezed out of his preferred position to one where it looks as if he’ll have a defined role as their second-line center in Columbus behind Pierre-Luc Dubois.  I could see his ice time moving up to a new career-high as well and he should get plenty of power play time.  On top of that, he wound up signing what amounts to a second bridge deal, one that walks him to unrestricted free agency two years from now.  Assuming he can improve upon his performance with the Canadiens last season (and he’ll have ample opportunity to do so), he should be able to position himself quite nicely for an even bigger payday two years from now.  He probably wouldn’t have had that chance with Montreal.

I’ll toss out a couple of under the radar names as well.  Minnesota’s addition of Nick Bjugstad for next to nothing didn’t garner much attention but he’s going to go from a situation where he would have had a limited role to probably being a middle-six center.  If he can stay healthy and produce, he should be able to restore some value quickly.  The other is Pittsburgh’s pickup of Mike Matheson.  I think moving to a winning environment will help as well as lower expectations.  They can also afford to work him in slowly on the third pairing.  I expect that he should benefit a fair bit from that particular combination.

As for Toews, there are definitely worse situations to be traded to but it’s not like he was leaving a terrible one with the Islanders.  He had just emerged as an impact defender with them and may have even had a bigger role this coming season.  They’ve also been quite competitive despite a roster that isn’t the strongest on paper so it’s not as if he’s leaving a perennial non-playoff team either.  It worked out well for him in the end – he got a long-term deal from a top team – but I think he’d have been just fine sticking around where he was had they been able to afford him cap-wise.

2012orioles: Will Ovechkin lose his chance to catch Gretzky with another shortened season?

It certainly doesn’t help his odds.  He sits 188 away from matching the record so 189 is the target.  Here’s some quick math to come up with some projections.

Ovechkin is averaging 0.61 goals per game in his career and while that has dipped slightly over the last four years, it has only gone down to 0.58 goals per game which still represents a 47-goal pace over a full 82-game season.  He’s going to slow down at some point but that time isn’t now and even when he eventually does slow down, he’ll still be producing at a pretty good clip.

Let’s forecast his goal per game average at 0.5 for this next four-year stint (assuming his next deal runs that long considering he has made it clear that he intends to play in Russia again before his career is over).  That’s a bigger drop-off than before but I don’t think that’s unrealistic as he’s still a top scorer.  Assuming the NHL gets back to an 82-game schedule after 2020-21, that would give him 302 games to work with, or 151 goals.  That’s assuming he stays healthy but it’s worth noting that he has only missed six games over the last six years combined and not all of those were due to injuries.  As far as players go, Ovechkin is quite durable.

That would put him around 35-40 goals behind Gretzky and at that point of his career, it may take two years to get there.  Had 2020-21 been a full season, that target could be shaved by 10-15 goals which could have shortened the number of years to catch him by one which is significant.

For me, it all depends on Ovechkin’s desire to get the record.  If he wants it, he’ll stick around long enough to get it, even if it means him staying with Washington for an extra year than it may have taken otherwise.  But if he wants to go back to the KHL before he’s in his early 40s, then this abbreviated campaign could be the difference.  I don’t think it will be though – Ovechkin will either get it or be more than 10-15 goals behind Gretzky when he decides that his time in North America has come to an end.

The Duke: Crystal Ball Scoutings (e.g., annual goals/points; PP unit; top- or bottom-6, etc.) please for Mssrs. Veleno, Lindblom, Tolvanen, Zadina, Rasmus Sandin & Adin Hill. Thanks in advance.

Joe Veleno: I know he was a prolific scorer in the QMJHL but I don’t see him being a big point producer in the NHL.  Detroit would be happy with him cracking the second line but I like him more as a two-way third-line center with secondary special teams time.  He should be a valuable player for them but that won’t necessarily translate to a ton of production – maybe 15 goals, 35 points per season.  He’s a couple of years from being in that role, however.

Oskar Lindblom: Assuming he is able to get back to the level he was at before his cancer diagnosis (and the contract he got from the Flyers suggests they believe he can), he should settle in around the 20-25 goal mark and around 40-45 points.  (He was on pace for more than that last season but that shooting percentage probably wasn’t sustainable.)  I’m not sure he’ll be able to get number one minutes (which could also push him to the second power play unit more often than not) but he should quickly work his way back onto the second line.

Eeli Tolvanen – I thought he was a sure-fire top-six player when he was drafted but I’m not as sure now after his first two seasons with AHL Milwaukee.  Maybe he’s someone that ultimately plays a lot better with more talented players but at this stage, it’s hard to forecast a top-six role down the road.  He’ll be eased in when he gets to Nashville full time so it’ll be a while yet before he reaches his ceiling.  Right now, 10-15 goals and 25-30 points with secondary power play time would be my projection.

Filip Zadina – Can he drive a line or is he more of a complementary scorer?  That’s the big question and there are two different statlines depending on the answer.  One is a 30-plus goal-getter with consistency, the other is closer to 20-25 per year that could get to 30 once or twice if all goes well.  I’m leaning towards the latter category but he’ll see plenty of top-six minutes and top unit power play time either way.

Rasmus Sandin – A lot depends on Morgan Rielly’s future.  If Toronto can’t afford to re-sign him, Sandin could very well become the lynchpin to their offense from the back end.  That would mean plenty of power play time and with the firepower they have, 45-50 points (10 or so goals) wouldn’t be out of the question.  If Rielly re-signs, however, Sandin becomes more of a secondary power play threat which could dip him more towards the 30-35-point territory.

Adin Hill – He should get his first real NHL opportunity in 2021-22 once Antti Raanta likely moves elsewhere in free agency but I’m not sure he’s a starter down the road.  I’d have him around the 25-30 start mark as his ceiling as a result.

Baji Kimran: What are the chances fans will be allowed in the arenas this season? I’m a full season ticket holder for the Columbus Blue Jackets and I’m starting to think I’ll be watching all the games on television. I’m hoping you’ll tell me I’m wrong.

I’d put the odds at 100% that fans will be allowed in some arenas this season as there are a handful of teams that will have limited capacity to start the season.  A lot will depend on how things go with the virus over the next few months.  Will the number of positive tests start to decrease sharply; how quickly will vaccinations make a difference?  And, of course, each jurisdiction’s respective health authorities have various levels of tolerance for risk; what one city thinks is risky could be considered acceptable in others.

I’m not as bullish that things are going to drastically change in the next couple of months.  While there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, progress is still going to be gradual.  As a result, I expect quite a few teams will ultimately go without fans for the entire year.  And if Columbus happens to be a state that allows some fans, I imagine it would be with limited capacity and with it, perhaps some sort of lottery to determine which season ticket holders get to attend which games.  You could get a chance at watching a handful in-person if all goes well but I suspect you’ll be watching most of the games on television.

VonBrewski: I hear the Bruins are not taking Chara back. So, what does Boston do on the left-side D?

I wouldn’t rule out Zdeno Chara returning to Boston just yet.  While team president Cam Neely has spoken about the desire to get a look at some of their younger options, they haven’t ruled out the veteran returning yet.  Earlier this week, his agent also indicated that Chara’s focus at this time is returning to the Bruins although other teams have reached out as well.

But let’s assume he doesn’t come back for the purpose of this question.  I expected someone to be brought in to try to replace Torey Krug but that clearly hasn’t happened and with less than $3MM in cap room, there isn’t a top-four option available.  I expect Matt Grzelcyk will be tasked with taking on a bigger role and after hovering between 18-19 minutes a night the last two years, he’ll probably come in closer to 22 minutes per game or so.  They’ll also hope that John Moore can hold down a regular spot in the lineup after playing a sparing role last season.

After that, youngsters like Urho Vaakanainen and Jakub Zboril are likely to get a long look with the hopes that one of them can take hold of a regular spot.  It also wouldn’t be shocking for one of their right-shot options to be asked to change sides and a lefty or two could be brought in on a PTO (they were linked to Karl Alzner a couple of months ago) to give them some more options.  It’d be a patchwork fix no matter what though which is why I don’t think they’ve entirely closed the door on Chara just yet.  While he’s not the top-pairing player he once was, he’s still better than some of the options here.

bigalval: Pavel Gogolev was not drafted again and had to sign overseas. I don’t get this because his stats a were great in the OHL. Why did no one draft him or sign him as a player who was not drafted, I watched a lot of video on this kid, he could be a steal. Could have signed him for next to nothing. Any ideas?

There’s no denying that Gogolev’s numbers were quite impressive last season – 45 goals and 51 assists in 63 games with Guelph, good for sixth in league scoring.  But there are a few factors that I think contributed to him being passed on again, aside from simply being Russian which still tends to scare some teams off (even though he moved to Canada early on).

As you alluded to, it wasn’t Gogolev’s first draft-eligible year and his performance in his prior years of eligibility weren’t particularly strong.  Was his jump in production due to him putting everything together, simply being a year older and stronger, or due to chemistry with a particular linemate?  The last two are almost certainly factors and that would have worked against him.

Gogolev has shown that he can score at the junior level but players with that type of production that get passed up on are often viewed as highly flawed in other areas.  It’s safe to infer that the fact he went unpicked again means that teams have similar concerns here.  Yegor Sokolov, another 2000-born prospect, had a similar jump in the QMJHL last year and was picked in the second round by Ottawa.  It’s the all-around game that was the difference.

It’s worth noting that while he has been passed up again in the draft, he did spend time at camps in Detroit and Vegas in the past so he is on the NHL radar for some teams and perhaps down the road he’ll be able to land an entry-level deal as an undrafted free agent.

Interestingly enough, Gogolev was able to find a place to play just yesterday as Vasby of the Allsvenskan in Sweden announced that they’ve signed him.  A good showing there would certainly bolster his value around the NHL.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Rangers’ chances of contention, Tampa Bay’s cap situation, Anaheim’s future, fits for Aleksander Barkov if he wants to leave Florida, World Juniors predictions, who could replace Alex Steen in St. Louis, and what the trade market may look like in this unique season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

gg24: Are the Rangers a true contender?

This season?  I’d say no.  The short-term divisional realignment does not work in their favor.  Boston should still contend while Pittsburgh and Washington always seem to get near the top of the division as well.  Philadelphia is certainly a team on the rise and their fellow New York rivals in the Islanders have shown that even without an overly strong roster on paper, they’ll be in the mix as well.  The Rangers would have to jump two of those teams simply to make the playoffs (assuming they use divisional playoffs without a Wild Card system which would be needed due to the Canadian division).  Then they’d need to knock out two more to get to the final four which would be contender status for this season.  I don’t see that happening.

As much as they surpassed expectations last season, it’s important to remember that a lot of their core is still young and some have very little experience.  A lot went right down the stretch last year but a step back for some of their players isn’t entirely unrealistic.  There is a core in place that eventually should be able to get them to take another step or two forward (if they can keep them all in place as the players on entry-level deals sign richer second contracts) to get to that potential contender status.  But with everything mentioned here, I have a hard time thinking that they get to that tier this season.

decaghuard: Zetterberg contract to Tampa Bay rumor: if true, would this help Tampa Bay gain cap space?

First, a bit of background on where this is coming from for those that aren’t aware of it.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman cited it on a Sportsnet 960 appearance (audio link), noting that it came from Europe and that the speculation is that Tyler Johnson would be involved.  I’ll add that a one-for-one swap of those two contracts doesn’t make any sense for Detroit so I would expect the Lightning to have to add to do that deal.

To answer your question, yes, it effectively would give them some extra cap flexibility eventually, even with adding a little over $1MM in a cap hit with Henrik Zetterberg being on the books for $6.083MM while Johnson is at $5MM.  The kicker is that they still would need to move out another contract of note to try to avoid having to into offseason LTIR.  A deal like this would put them about $3MM over the Upper Limit and that’s why Alex Killorn’s name has been out there in trade speculation for most of the offseason.  If they can move him out and get back into compliance, they can then put Zetterberg on LTIR and have up to $6.083MM to use there.  (Their LTIR space would be that amount less whatever existing cap room they have at the time; they don’t automatically get the full amount.)

That money might be enough to get short-term deals for Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak done which would solve the cap problem for this season.  Of course, moving money at this time has proven to be difficult so even with that possible road map, it’s still much easier said than done.

JustPete: The Anaheim Ducks appear to be a mess this year. Over the cap, lacking a backup goalie, need help on offense and defense, facing the upcoming expansion draft – and the bright spots they do have are young and at least a year or two away.

Is it time for a new GM to lead the team into and out of the seemingly inevitable rebuilding year(s)?

I’m not too worried about Anaheim’s salary cap situation.  Yes, they’re a bit over but they can cut down some roster spots with waiver-exempt players at the start of the season, have Anthony Stolarz as a short-term backup, and then transfer Ryan Kesler to LTIR to free up cap room to bring in a better backup.  At least, that’s the ideal plan although at this point, there aren’t a whole lot of quality backups available; re-signing Ryan Miller may actually be their best option at this point.  There should be enough money left over to add help up front or on the back end as well (but not both).

Clearly, Anaheim’s ownership is content with the state of their retooling at this point considering things are where they are now so I don’t foresee Bob Murray being let go.  But if they decide to change their mind, this season would be the time to do so.

Ryan Getzlaf and David Backes will be unrestricted free agents next offseason while Corey Perry’s buyout cap hit drops back down.  Between those three, that’s over $17MM in savings and there aren’t any pending restricted free agents that will be looking at a big raise that year either.  That will give them ample cap space at a time where few teams have cap room.  They’re well-positioned to try to address some of those issues at that time so there is light at the end of the tunnel.  Between that and their younger players continuing to progress, there’s a path towards getting back to at least playoff contention.

Eaton Harass: Which team is the best fit for Barkov once he inevitably wants out of South Florida?

I certainly don’t expect Aleksander Barkov to ask for a trade even if the Panthers have a tough season.  His contract is up in 2022 and he’ll be eligible for unrestricted free agency at that time so if he wants a change of scenery, he could very well wait to hit the open market and take his pick from what would certainly be no shortage of suitors.  Teams will be in a bit better shape cap-wise by that time and even if they’re not, adding a player of his caliber in free agency is worth the risk of going over in the summer and figuring out how to make it work later.

Of the 32 teams in the league at that time, there are only a handful that wouldn’t be a good fit.  The only ones that wouldn’t are teams that have a lot of spending down the middle with one of the top centers in the league (or two higher-priced ones on long-term contracts).

In the West, Calgary comes to mind.  Johnny Gaudreau (UFA), Mark Giordano (UFA), and Matthew Tkachuk (RFA) are among the expiring contracts at that time with Sean Monahan a year away from UFA eligibility.  Barkov would be a big upgrade down the middle and would allow them to potentially flip Monahan for a good return with Mikael Backlund remaining on the second line and Elias Lindholm staying on the wing.  The 2022 offseason figures to be when that roster undergoes that big change and adding an elite center would certainly bolster their future.

As for the East, my initial thought was Philadelphia with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier among the pending UFAs that summer but if those two re-sign, it probably takes them out of the market.  Instead, I’ll say Detroit.  By then, their young core will be more ready to make an impact and while they’ve added some decent young pivots in Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno, they won’t be top-tier centers in the NHL.  A true number one is one of the big holes they still need to fill.  Adding Barkov would certainly accomplish that.

Barkov, a high-end two-way center, is the type of player that would fit in extremely well just about anywhere though so there may not be a true ‘best’ fit but rather a whole lot of great ones.

@bk656: Who do you think is going to win the 2021 World Junior Championships (assuming there are no issues with players testing positive or anything like that)?

Well, that second part didn’t even hold up long enough for me to attempt to comment on it.  The IIHF revealed yesterday that eight players from Germany tested positive which has forced them into quarantine until the day before the tournament begins.  But with due respect to them, that shouldn’t have any sort of significant effect on the outcome of the tournament.

On paper, it’s hard to go against Canada’s roster which is loaded with a whopping 20 first-round picks among their 22 skaters.  That’s unheard of in this tournament.  There are a couple of concerns, however.  A lot of their players haven’t played in a competitive setting at all this season and their goaltending isn’t the strongest on paper.  But if their defense is as good as it is on paper, they shouldn’t be relying on their goalies to win.

I’m intrigued by Russia.  I expect Yaroslav Askarov to be the best goalie in the tournament and they have some firepower up front, led by Rodion Amirov and Vasili Podkolzin.  The fact that their players have been playing for months now might also help give them a boost early on and offset their typical slow start.

Sweden has been hit by positive tests but they still have a very strong back end.  Their attack isn’t as deep as it could have been and that could hurt them while the USA is down a couple of important forwards that they were hoping to have available.  Both of those teams are still good enough to contend even without their full complement of top players but assuming Canada isn’t hurt by being off as long as they have been, I think it’s their tournament to lose.

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