PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Department of Player Safety, the possibility of compliance buyouts, a creative Arizona trade idea, teams that could be heading for a sizable shakeup, Nashville’s regular season struggles, Philadelphia’s offseason, and NHL officiating.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

pawtucket: How would you fix the Department of Player Safety and its obvious flaws and inconsistencies?

When it comes to its flaws, I’m not sure everyone in the league and the NHL Players Association necessarily sees it that way.  I’m not going to weigh in on the Tom Wilson incident which is what I suspect led to this question aside from noting that the view of general managers who were willing to speak off the record about it was hardly unanimous.  I’m fairly confident the same can be said of the players as well.  If someone wants to see stiffer discipline handed out, there is someone else who likes things the way there are now.  That makes meaningful changes hard to accomplish.

The fine system has largely been ridiculed given its lack of teeth but that’s how both sides (the NHL and NHLPA) seem to want it.  The threshold for levying a fine without a disciplinary hearing is $5K and is collectively bargained (Section 18 for anyone who wants to look up the details).  That’s why most fines have been for that amount; it’s the most they can give without calling a hearing.  It can actually be higher (up to $15K for multiple fines in a 12-month period) but a hearing would have to happen each time.  If they want it to be higher, it needs to be agreed upon in the CBA.  They just extended the CBA and didn’t touch it.  Until a large percentage of players and league executives believe things need to change, they’re not going to change.

As to what I might change?  That’s a hard one as the ideas I have certainly have flaws to them but here they are.  Having an independent party make the decision could be more objective than an NHL employee but that would cost more money and chances are, the league would be more hesitant to refer matters to that independent person which would mean even more of the current system.  Maybe some sort of panel makes a ruling – one with a league representative, an NHLPA representative, and one other party (perhaps a former player).  Each makes their ruling and the suspension or fine becomes the average or median amount of those three.  I’ll admit, that’s not a great system either but in terms of changes that I can think of, those are the ones that come to mind.

Joe422: With so many teams up against the salary cap… is there any chance the league allows a compliance buyout this offseason? And if yes, we know Ladd, Neal, etc will be bought out but what surprise names could we see?

If there was going to be a compliance buyout that was allowed, it would have been last year when teams were caught off guard by the cap flattening out instead of continuing to increase.  Everyone has now had a season to operate under the new system and have signed contracts knowing what the new economic reality is.  And while there are some large-market, cap-strapped teams that would welcome the ability for a cap-exempt buyout, there are others that want to see those teams suffer, for lack of a better term.  I’d be surprised if one was allowed this summer.

But, just for fun, a name that came to mind that might be viewed as a surprise when I saw this question was Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky.  He has not fared well with the Panthers; a .902 SV% wasn’t what they were expecting when they gave him $10MM a year for seven years.  They have Spencer Knight who is their goalie of the future.  Clearing Bobrovsky’s deal off the books would also allow them to be able to afford to re-sign pending UFA Chris Driedger, bring in a veteran backup/platoon option, and still come out with cap and real dollar savings.  GM Bill Zito isn’t the GM who gave Bobrovsky the contract so there’s no situation where the GM isn’t willing to admit his mistake – it was Dale Tallon who made it.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Arizona expose Phil Kessel for the draft, then give up an asset to trade to get him back after the $5MM signing bonus has been paid?

Technically, this is legal, sort of.  In the Vegas draft, teams were allowed to trade back for the players that they lost and a few of those teams went down that road but couldn’t work something out.  However, as Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic noted back in 2017 (Twitter link), it can’t be part of a pre-arranged transaction.  Assuming that the purpose of this is to have Seattle repay Kessel’s July 1 signing bonus to Arizona (which is how it technically would work), that certainly feels like a pre-arranged transaction.  They’d have to get a little creative as a result.

For a deal to not appear as pre-arranged, some time would need to elapse before Arizona would re-acquire Kessel.  I’m thinking a couple of months or more with the deal coming just before (or during) training camp.  By then, the Coyotes could plausibly argue that they were unable to replace him in free agency or the trade market and having had time to re-assess their team, now believe that they need to bring him back (and would be paying a fairly significant cost to do so).  Is losing a good pick/prospect or two and potentially drawing the ire of the league worth saving $5MM in costs?  Even with their financial situation, I’m not sure they’d see it that way but I like the creative thinking.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What teams if they are eliminated in Round 1 can you see making big changes this offseason?

For example, if Edmonton is eliminated in Round 1, do they shake up their core outside of Leon, Connor and Darnell?

Edmonton certainly seems like the obvious choice to be bolder in their team building.  The forward depth isn’t the greatest which is a by-product of having players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on their roster.  Their defense isn’t elite by any stretch either.  I don’t think they’d move one of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Darnell Nurse but I don’t think there would be many untouchables beyond those three either.  If they go down to Winnipeg with the offense continuing to sputter, GM Ken Holland will have a hard time justifying keeping things the way they are now.

Washington also stands out as a possibility and with them down 3-1 to Boston, them losing also stands out as a possibility.  It has been a weird year for them and it certainly feels like Evgeny Kuznetsov’s time with them could be in jeopardy.  Any time a center of his caliber becomes available, that’s shaking up the core.  If they wind up exposing and losing T.J. Oshie to Seattle as some have speculated, that would be another big change to their core group.

Gbear: Despite getting into the playoffs, the Predators have been awful at shot suppression, shot creation and special teams throughout John Hynes’ tenure as coach. Is merely squeezing into the playoffs reason to allow him to keep his job in Nashville?

Related to that, it would seem that if any team needed to make a play for Jack Eichel, it would be Nashville. Would it not be reasonable for GM Poile to offer up two first-rounders, and any of their prospects not named Tomasino or Farrance for him?

Speaking of a team that could try to shake things up with a first-round exit, Nashville would certainly qualify as well.  They’ve been sputtering for a while now and it’s clear the composition of players they have don’t work in terms of maximizing their individual talents.  A swap of high-priced underachievers is one of the ways that teams can make moves without creating cap problems as long as the deals are similarly priced and the Predators look like a prime candidate to do that.

The hiring of Hynes was a little surprising at the time and frankly was underwhelming as nothing he had done in New Jersey suggested he was a ‘must-hire before anyone else gets a chance to get him’ coach.  But it wouldn’t be fair to just lay it at his feet as the core wasn’t exactly doing much under Peter Laviolette either.  I think it’s more of a roster composition issue than a coaching one at this point.  And for what it’s worth, Hynes has only been behind the bench for 84 regular season games, barely one full season.  Coaches, especially ones that they moved quickly to get like they did, typically get a longer leash than that, playoff success or not.

As for targeting Eichel, sure, they’d be wise to show interest in him.  However, the cost to get a franchise player is going to be considerably higher than a couple of first-round picks that will be near the middle of the round and some prospects that aren’t at the top of their pool.  Eichel will be looked at in more detail next week but if Buffalo isn’t getting elite talent in return, they shouldn’t be moving him.  That package isn’t going to yield elite talent.

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The playoffs have begun, even though the 2020-21 regular season isn’t actually over for the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames. Still, those games are more like tryouts for young players than competitive NHL action, meaning the focus is on the postseason from here on out.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. The first part looked at the future for Taylor Hall, some expansion draft complications, and the Selke Trophy vote. The second discussed the unproven goaltending situation in Pittsburgh, Seattle’s first star, and which dark horses could make a run during the playoffs.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Pittsburgh’s goalies, Colorado’s decision to not add a more prominent backup goalie, some Seattle side deal speculation, a quick look a Boston’s expansion situation, what sleeper teams could make some noise in the playoffs, a junior player that hasn’t received much NHL interest, and some comments on some young NHL forwards that haven’t quite found their way offensively.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

One More JAGR: Do the Penguins have the goaltending tandem to make it to the big show or is the lack of experience going to be an Achilles’ heel?

The tandem of Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith (when healthy; both are currently hurt) is certainly far from the top tandem in the league but teams have gone deep with lesser starters before.  Both goalies have shown they can get hot for stretches and in the playoffs, a hot streak can win a round or two so I think they’re capable of being good enough to do some damage if one gets going at the right time.

However, I’m not overly confident that they will be able to do that.  Pittsburgh is the top-scoring team in the league this season which is great but scoring rates typically go down instead of up in the playoffs.  That puts more pressure on the goalies to try to limit teams to two or less.  Jarry has allowed three or more goals in 20 of 39 appearances this season and DeSmith in nine of 20.  That’s basically a 50/50 split on allowing three or more.  It’s hard to go deep in the playoffs with those types of odds and with them looking like they’ll line up against the Islanders, the games are definitely going to be lower-scoring.  One of them will need to get going right away to avoid an upset.

Eaton Harass: Why would Sakic go out and get two questionable backups instead of getting one solid one?

I think part of the problem was the uncertainly with Pavel Francouz’s injury.  At the time they went and got Jonas Johansson, I suspect they were still holding out hope for Francouz to return.  If they thought he was going back, then just getting a short-term bridge guy made some sense and to Johansson’s credit, he has been better than I thought he was going to be.

Devan Dubnyk’s addition was a bit of a surprise though.  I thought Jonathan Bernier was going to be their target, someone who had played there before and while he’s not a true starter, he’s an above-average backup.  Dubnyk hasn’t been that for a couple of years now so him being targeted was odd and I wonder if he was the fallback plan.  Landing on the COVID Protocol Related Absences List certainly hasn’t helped things either.

However, the goalie trade market never really materialized.  Florida held onto Chris Driedger and Detroit kept Bernier, taking the two top options off the market in the process which limited their options to add more of an impact goalie.  The Panthers wanted the goalie insurance for their playoff run and I suspect the Red Wings are going to try to re-sign Bernier.  GM Joe Sakic doesn’t strike me as someone that’s going to push all of the chips to the table either.  They know they need some cost-effective players over the next couple of years and holding onto their top picks gives them a better chance to develop some of those.

Incremental upgrades were the name of the game for the Avs at the deadline as Sakic supplemented the depth instead of the core.  I think they should have been willing to pay a bit more to get a more reliable option but with most of the notable names not moving, I can’t say for certain that they didn’t try either.  If Philipp Grubauer can stay healthy though, who backs him up in the playoffs should ultimately be a moot point anyway.  But with what happened last year, I can certainly understand why there’s a bit more emphasis on the backup this time around.

pawtucket: Who (or what) will Seattle’s biggest acquisitions be?

This is really hard to predict when we’re more than two months away from protection lists being released.  Trades will be made, players will be injured in the playoffs which could shift them from protected to unprotected, and there may be another GM change or two on the horizon which could also affect things.  As a result, at this point, the best I can offer is a couple of vague predictions on side deals.

Tampa Bay needs to dump money and Seattle has the ability to absorb it better than anyone else can.  Tyler Johnson’s $5MM AAV needs to come off the books.  I suspect that Seattle is going to receive a significant package in exchange for selecting Johnson.  Given their free agent situation up front and a need for several low-cost forwards, I suspect the incentive is going to come from the back end where Cal Foote, a 2017 first-round pick, seems like a player that could be part of that package as someone that can start on Seattle’s third pairing and ideally work his way up a bit.

Right now, Washington’s goaltenders seem like the logical target as they can’t protect both Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov.  Neither are ready for full-time number one duty but both are young and cost-controllable.  Combined, that tandem certainly could work for the Caps for a few years.  With that in mind, I expect GM Brian MacLellan to work out a side deal to keep them around.  That shouldn’t cost a top prospect but their upcoming second-round pick seems like something Kraken GM Ron Francis may be asking for.

As the offseason gets going, we’ll certainly be diving deeper into the situations for the 30 teams that will lose players (Vegas is exempt) where we’ll be able to put together better pictures of what could happen so I’m sure we’ll be able to come up with some predictions as we get closer to the expansion draft.

case7187: With the exp draft coming who should the Bruins protect? We know the Big 3 and Coyle (NMC) while they should trade DeBrusk; they should’ve done that last season when he had value. The 3 D are Carlo McAvoy and Grzelcyk (IMO they should look to move him as well with his long list of injuries) but goalie not sure and not really worried about some of the other guys this season has shown me the need to blow up the bottom nine.

I’m going to go a little out of order and talk about Jake DeBrusk first.  I don’t see there being much of a viable trade market for him this summer.  The year he is having has hurt his trade value considerably and his back-loaded contract only makes things worse as his $4.85MM salary is far from desirable.  I’ll take it a step farther and say there’s a better chance he’s bought out than traded.  As he’s under 25, it’s only a one-third cost and the back-loading of the deal would make for a pretty low cap charge.  (Per CapFriendly, doing so would give Boston a cap credit of $366K next year and a cap charge of $808K in 2022-23).  To me, that’s more desirable than trying to move him for another bad contract.

Now let’s look at the forwards.  As you noted, Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and Charlie Coyle are locked in with no-move clauses and David Pastrnak is an obvious choice.  I’m going to put Nick Ritchie and Craig Smith as my next two picks; Ritchie remains young enough to still improve and has been a lot better than he was in limited action last year after being acquired while Smith is on a pretty good contract.  That leaves one spot for Trent Frederic and Zach Senyshyn, two prospects who haven’t done much with their chances.  Frederic gets the spot as he has at least mostly established himself as a regular while Senyshyn is more on the fringes.  For anyone checking, that leaves DeBrusk, Ondrej Kase (injuries make him a safe bet to not be picked), Curtis Lazar, and Chris Wagner as unprotected forwards and they would be in compliance with the requirement to have at least two signed players unprotected that have played in 27 games this year or 54 over the last two years with this list.

I agree with the defense although it leaves Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon exposed and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those two get picked by Seattle.  I kicked around the idea of leaving Matt Grzelcyk exposed with his contract but Boston’s back end can’t take any more hits in terms of losing established talent.  As for goalies, Jeremy Swayman is exempt while Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak are UFAs and aren’t at any risk of being signed and picked.  That puts it between Daniel Vladar and Callum Booth and of those two, I’d protect Vladar.  It means that Booth needs a qualifying offer when he hasn’t earned it but they’re not going to be the only team qualifying a goalie for that very reason.

wreckage: Whom are the biggest sleepers entering the postseason? Everyone expects big things from Tampa, Colorado, Vegas, and Toronto. Could a Minnesota, Edmonton, Montreal, or Florida surprise and make a run?

I think Minnesota’s the team to watch for here.  They’ve given Vegas fits this season winning five of eight games with two of the three losses coming in overtime.  They’ve also been alright against Colorado who right now lines up as their more probable first-round matchup.  They’re scoring at a good clip but have a fairly balanced attack and both Cam Talbot and Kaapo Kahkonen have shown themselves to be capable of playing quite well for a long stretch.

I’m not as bullish on the other three you listed.  Edmonton’s still largely the same team that got upset in the bubble a year ago and no matter how well Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl do, they probably can’t carry the load alone while having success in the playoffs.  Montreal is supposed to be built for the playoffs but they haven’t looked good outside of the first ten games of the season.  If they’re healthy by then, they’re good enough to give a team a scare but I don’t see them going deep.  I give Florida a ton of credit for turning things around but I can’t pick them to beat a Tampa Bay team that’s going to get captain Steven Stamkos and top winger Nikita Kucherov back.

I’m going to add the Islanders to the list as well.  They’ve shown that they can have playoff success with good defense and goaltending and those elements are definitely still in place.  Their offense is a bit deeper than it was a year ago and it would not surprise me much at all if they were the team that comes out of the East Division.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the latest on Chicago’s captain, Carolina’s quiet trade deadline, Taylor Hall’s next destination, Colorado’s goaltending situation for expansion, potential Selke Trophy candidates, targets for New Jersey in free agency, and many projections.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

realsox: What is the current status of Jonathan Toews?

Toews has missed the entire season due to an illness and with it being a sensitive health matter, it’s nice to see that there hasn’t been a lot of ill-founded speculation on his situation.  The original announcement was that he was experiencing symptoms that left him feeling drained and lethargic and quite frankly, that can be quite a few things and there’s no point guessing on what it could be.  He hasn’t skated lately and isn’t coming back this season, even if Chicago makes a miracle run to get to the playoffs.

The good news is that last month, TSN’s Darren Dreger reported that Toews’ health is improving and that as things stand, he’s expected to be available for next season which is great news.  That means that the Blackhawks won’t be able to put his $10.5MM on LTIR for next year but with Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw’s playing days done, they’ll still have a lot of money on there and if all goes well, they’ll have their captain back which would give them a huge boost at center, a position that has been a problem spot all season.

mikedickinson: Is Waddell’s lack of a move at the deadline going to hurt the Canes? With Jesper Fast out last night they dressed seven defensemen and the third and fourth lines weren’t anything great.

I know GM Don Waddell had suggested that they weren’t going to be anywhere near as active at the trade deadline as they were a year ago but I was expecting more from them than swapping out sixth defenders (Haydn Fleury for Jani Hakanpaa and a sixth-rounder).  I thought they’d have moved out a goalie but that market didn’t materialize as much as some thought it would (and with Petr Mrazek banged up again, that may wind up working out for them in the end).

I would have liked to see them add some more forward depth, especially since they had the cap space to add where a lot of other contenders didn’t but there may have been a budgetary element to that as well.  Having said that, a depth winger shouldn’t make or break their chances in the playoffs.  Carolina’s top six is what will make the difference and that has been bolstered with Teuvo Teravainen’s long-awaited return.  Teams often go as far as their top players will take them when it comes down to crunch time, so to speak and as long as those guys stay healthy, they should be in good shape regardless of their third and fourth lines.

M34: Where does Taylor Hall fail next season?

At this point, I don’t see a reason to think why it won’t be Boston.  Following the trade, Hall confirmed that he used his no-move clause to push a deal to the Bruins and that he had interest in joining them last fall but the money couldn’t come together.  Unless things go really poorly, it’s hard to see him opting to go elsewhere.

What works for Hall is that he’s now in a role that’s better suited for him.  At this point of his career, he’s not a 20-minute player that’s going to be counted on to get the key goal at the crucial moment.  He wasn’t that at the end of his time in New Jersey, he wasn’t that in Arizona, and he certainly wasn’t that in Buffalo this season.  If he decides to hit the open market this summer in a search for a role where he can be that number one guy, he will probably struggle once again.  But he doesn’t need to be that in Boston where he’s clearly behind Brad Marchand in the pecking order and Marchand isn’t giving up that role anytime soon.  He can get the secondary defensive matchups playing alongside David Krejci and take advantage of those which he has so far.

Also working in Boston’s favor is their cap situation moving forward.  Krejci’s $7.25MM comes off the books this summer and while there’s a very good chance he re-signs, it’ll be at a lower rate than what he’s getting now.  Some of those savings can go towards Hall – who is on Boston’s books at $4MM with Buffalo retaining the rest – while not drastically hurting their financial flexibility with moves still to make in terms of solidifying the defense and retaining or replacing Tuukka Rask.  Lots can change over the next few months but if I’m picking where he signs right now, it’s Boston.

coachdit: If you were in Joe Sakic’s shoes, what would you do with goalie regarding the expansion draft? Dubnyk and Gruby are UFA after the season, Johansson and Francouz are in their second season and I believe that means they are exempt.

Let’s look at the eligibility situation first.  This is Jonas Johansson’s fourth season on an NHL contract so he is eligible to be taken (but he’s a pending UFA at no risk of being picked).  It’s technically Pavel Francouz’s third year but he hasn’t played this season.  Unless he comes back, he won’t accrue a year of service time which makes him exempt.  Hunter Miska is also eligible for selection.

I don’t think there’s much of a decision to make here.  If they can re-sign Philipp Grubauer by then, he gets protected.  If they think there’s a chance to re-sign him after expansion, he gets protected.  If he goes to them and says he’s testing the open market, I’d still probably protect him as there’s no risk of Miska getting picked even with him on an AAV that’s below the league minimum salary for 2021-22; the Avs will have better players left unprotected to pick from than him.

The only way I don’t see Grubauer being protected is if his demands are so high that Colorado goes out and trades for a goalie.  In that case, whoever they get becomes protected.  Otherwise, signed or not, they may as well just protect Grubauer.

KAR 120C: Who are the Selke trophy candidates? I ask as Draisaitl is looking good, but wonder about all of the variables in play. It feels like there are always the incumbents.

Honestly, I don’t think Leon Draisaitl is in the conversation.  Regardless of how good someone’s defensive game is, if you’re battling for a scoring title, you’re probably getting overlooked for a defensive award.  He may get some fourth and fifth place votes but I doubt he sees more than that.

Yes, there are the usual suspects that are in it regularly.  Patrice Bergeron is always going to be in the mix.  So too is Ryan O’Reilly.  Last year’s winner (Sean Couturier) would have been in the mix had it not been for injuries.  Mark Stone dropped to fifth last year after finishing second three years in a row and has to be given strong consideration as well.

If you’re looking for a darkhorse candidate, I’ll toss out Aleksander Barkov.  He has been thought of as underrated for so long that he really isn’t underrated anymore so he’s on the radar for voters.  He logs heavy minutes including late-game defensive situations and takes a regular turn on the penalty kill.  He’s well above average at the faceoff dot.  If you look at possession and expected goals for stats (which some voters do), he stands out there as well.  And with the award seemingly gravitating towards the best two-way forward in the league instead of the best defensive one, Barkov certainly has the offensive numbers to stand out too.  You can never count out the regulars for this award but this may be the year for Barkov.

SpeakOfTheDevil: You mentioned in prior mailbags that the Devils lack an identity (which I sort of agree with you about).  That being said, name three free agents the Devs should go after this offseason to complement the pieces that we do have and that start acquiring that identity.

With the cap space New Jersey has entering a market that has few teams with big money to spend, I’m going to dream big here with a couple of these.  I don’t see them landing three big fish but here is who I’d target if I was GM Tom Fitzgerald.

Dougie Hamilton – With Ty Smith and Damon Severson already on the roster plus P.K. Subban, there’s a puck-rushing component to build off of.  Hamilton can add to that.  With the young group of forwards they have, Lindy Ruff is trying to get a team that plays more up-tempo.  Hamilton fits that playing style.  And with Subban being a year away from unrestricted free agency, there’s a pending hole to be filled and what better way to fill it than the best UFA blueliner out there that already fits the direction they seem to want to go?

Gabriel Landeskog – There is a lot of finesse in New Jersey’s young core but not a lot of high-end sandpaper.  Landeskog plays with enough of a physical edge to make him stand out among New Jersey’s options and is talented enough offensively to fit alongside Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and really bring another dimension to that line while also providing some much-needed scoring on the wing.  He’d be a huge boost on their top line.

Zach Hyman – Is he a big fish compared to these two?  Not really but he’d be a nice consolation prize nonetheless.  He has shown in Toronto that he is a perfect complementary piece for skill players and fits in an up-tempo environment.  That’s what New Jersey has and is hoping to build upon.  If the plan is to build around Hughes and Hischier anchoring the top two lines, they need someone that’s willing to do the dirty work around the boards and more specifically, someone that’s good at it.  Hyman checks those boxes.  With his price point coming in lower than some of the top free agents out there, he’s going to have plenty of interest but the Devils have the ability to outbid them all.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Jaden Schwartz’s future in St. Louis, what’s next for Toronto, Patrik Laine’s struggles in Columbus, some player predictions for next season, the next step for the Rangers’ rebuild, Quinn Hughes’ defensive struggles in Vancouver, what happens to NHL staff who are fired before the end of their deal, and what Boston could be up to in the coming days.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

vincent k. mcmahon: Considering Jaden Schwartz is going to be a UFA this offseason, do the Blues hold on to him and try for an extension or try and trade him at the deadline?

It has been an odd few days for St. Louis who have gone from a potential seller to one that may be looking to buy by Monday’s trade deadline.  But even having said that, I don’t think they’ll look to move Schwartz even if they opt to sell.  Instead, I expect their plans are going to be to keep him regardless and it’s worth noting that he can block a trade to half the league.

That doesn’t mean that an extension will happen by Monday.  I’d be surprised if it did.  There’s a comfort level between the two sides and what appears to be a mutual desire to get a deal done.  They have cap space opening up this summer with Tyler Bozak and Mike Hoffman off the books; between those and Schwartz’s $5.35MM expiring deal, there’s plenty of financial wiggle room to get a deal done.  I expect they will eventually get an extension worked out although it may need to come in a bit cheaper than his current rate for it to happen.

@nelson_fran_: Who do the Leafs pick up? Winger or d-man?

Even after adding Riley Nash yesterday – a tidy piece of business for GM Kyle Dubas – to give them a capable center for the playoffs, I expect Toronto to keep their sights focused on adding forward depth.

They’ve been linked to Alex Iafallo for a while now and that’s who I think they’ll ultimately end up with as long as he doesn’t sign a last-minute extension with Los Angeles.  He’d fit nicely into their top six alongside John Tavares and William Nylander and if the Kings retain half the money as Toronto would likely require them to, he’d only cost just over $1.2MM into their LTIR room which they should be able to afford even when Frederik Andersen returns.

It’s also worth noting that Dubas and Kings GM Rob Blake have a clear history of making moves with the Jake Muzzin and Jack Campbell trades in recent years.  That type of trust and familiarity certainly comes in handy and in such a strange season, that could be even more important as player agent Allan Walsh suggested on Twitter last night.  They’ve combined on a move the last two years and I think they’ll do it again.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Is Laine the problem or did CBJ just try and fit a square peg into a round hole and it backfired?

It’s some of each.  Let’s look at the second half first and talk about Columbus.  When Laine was successful in Winnipeg, he had other quality offensive players on his line that were above average at playmaking.  The Blue Jackets don’t really have that, especially down the middle.  John Tortorella’s rapid line change frequency also makes it hard to develop any sort of chemistry.  Laine was moved around a bit with the Jets but nowhere near as frequently as he has with Columbus.  That’s not the best type of environment for him to succeed in.

As for Laine, the same criticisms that existed during his time with Winnipeg are showing here.  He can score but when he’s not doing that, he’s not bringing much else to the table.  He has been rightly criticized for a lack of engagement at times and an infrequent willingness to try to play in the defensive zone.  No one is saying he needs to become an elite two-way presence or anything but a scorer that isn’t scoring isn’t worth playing much.  A scorer that can do some other things earns a much longer leash and better opportunities to play his way out of a slump.  That’s what he needs to realize.

When this deal was made, it felt like Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen was effectively kicking the can down the road, so to speak.  He received good short-term value on paper for Pierre-Luc Dubois (Jack Roslovic has impressed since joining the Blue Jackets as well) but Laine didn’t feel like the best fit in terms of helping them win now.  Accordingly, the fact that it hasn’t worked out all that well so far isn’t all that surprisingly.

The Duke: Crystal Ball visions for Seth Jarvis vs Alex Newhook (goals/assists only); Top-2 D-men in 2021 draft, scoring-wise; short- and long-term futures of Adin Hill and Laurent Brossoit (chosen by Seattle?); and does Laine get it straightened out, either in Columbus or elsewhere?

Jarvis/Newhook: Jarvis looks like the better goal scorer of the two and Carolina has to be extremely encouraged with what he was able to do in limited action in the AHL this season before returning to the WHL where he has lit it up again.  Newhook has been more of a playmaker throughout his career and should beat Jarvis in that regard in the NHL.  Both profile as good second-liners; give me a 25 goal, 20 assist average for Jarvis and a 20 goal, 25 assist one for Newhook.  Those would be nice returns for players selected in the middle of the first round.

2021 Defensemen: Picking the top two is tricky as there are three that are really ahead of the rest of the group.  Owen Power is one of the contenders to go first overall so let’s put him in there.  That puts it between Brandt Clarke and Luke Hughes, brother of Jack and Quinn.  I can see family bloodlines giving Hughes a boost that could make him the second one off the board although I believe Clarke will have the better career of the two as more of a two-way player but still contributes enough offensively to possibly fit on a top pairing.

Goalies: I don’t see Hill being particularly attractive to Seattle unless they want him as the third-string goalie.  There will be more proven netminders available to give the Kraken a quality one-two punch and I don’t think Hill’s viewed favorably enough around the league to draft him and then flip him elsewhere.  Brossoit is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season and again, isn’t at the level of some of the veterans that are going to be made available.  I don’t think he’d be good enough to be their backup and he’d be too expensive to serve as their third goalie.

Laine: I touched on him in the last question but while I do believe he’ll get things turned around, I don’t believe his long-term future is with Columbus.  He needs to be in a situation where he’s playing with a dynamic playmaker to set up his shot and the Blue Jackets aren’t that team.  I wouldn’t be shocked if there was a quiet trade request this offseason but even if not, I don’t think either side wants to do a long-term contract.  That means probably a one-year pact before a final call has to be made by the 2022 summer.

pitmanrich: As the season has provided more questions than answers what realistically do the Rangers need to do to take the next step in their rebuild? Trade for a top centre like Eichel if available? Change coach? And what do they do with Strome who continues to put points up, trade him or keep him?

For them to take the next step forward, they need that elite center.  Mika Zibanejad can be a number one but him behind a better one would greatly bolster their fortunes.  They have considerable depth on the wing that they can consolidate to try to make a move and with several of them being recent first-round picks – Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, and Vitali Kravtsov – they will carry considerable value.  If Jack Eichel is available, of course he’d fit the bill although making the money work in terms of trying to keep Zibanejad after may be a bit tricky.

Failing that, they need to upgrade on Strome.  I know he’s arguably having a better season than 2019-20 when he had a career year.  He fits with Artemi Panarin but the problem is that he hasn’t fit particularly well with anyone else on the Rangers for any extended period of time.  Having a top-six pivot that’s reliant on a certain winger to have success is far from ideal.  The challenge GM Jeff Gorton has is that every other team knows that too which makes getting fair value in a trade tricky.  As a result, he’s either salary ballast in a trade for an upgrade down the middle or he sticks around for the final year of his deal.

I am not a big proponent of changing coaches in general as more often than not, the warts of the roster will come back to bite whoever is behind the bench.  We’ve seen it with the changes made in Montreal and Calgary, in particular, as their records are no better than what they were before the moves.

David Quinn was brought in to bring the team through the rebuild and I’m not sure they’re there yet.  I think expectations were too high, too quick coming into the year which doesn’t help things.  But at the same time, Kakko and Lafreniere have underachieved in the early going.  If I’m Gorton, the question I’m asking myself is does Kris Knoblauch or someone else bring out more from those two?  If yes, make the change but if not, stick with Quinn.

bigguccisosa300: What do you think about Quinn Hughes going forward? He puts up points and is great on the power play but his plus/minus is kinda disturbing. Also, do you think Travis Green and/or Benning will be back next year?

I think he has basically been as advertised.  Coming out of college, the book on him was that he can certainly drive the play offensively and he has certainly done that.  However, he was also not viewed as a strong player in his own end and that has also come true, contributing to the -17 mark you referenced.  I think Vancouver was comfortable with the style of player they were getting when they picked him but I’m sure they’d like him to be a bit more conscientious in his own end.

I don’t see them having any reservations about committing to him on a long-term basis; someone that is capable of driving the offense as much as he can is going to get paid and there’s no denying that he is a key part of their future plans.

As for who will sign them to that contract, I wrote a couple of months back in a previous mailbag that Benning’s future will basically be tied to whether or not he gets permission to work on extensions for Hughes and Elias Pettersson.  If ownership has concerns about Benning’s performance, he wouldn’t be allowed to work on deals for his two key cogs.  The fact that he’s discussing those deals tells me he’s safe for next season and in that case, Green should be back as well.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what the Islanders may try to do at the trade deadline, possible returns for New Jersey’s trade options, Colorado’s goaltending situation, Peter Laviolette, Pittsburgh’s deadline goals, what the Flyers should do by the deadline, and Winnipeg’s weakened back end.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Y2KAK: Who do you think the Islanders pursue at the trade deadline?

redsfanken: What are the Islanders plans? Is really like to see some type of sniper like Patrik Laine, any chance?

Kyle Palmieri seems to be close to the perfect fit aside from the fact he plays the right wing and the player he’d effectively be replacing (Anders Lee) plays the left side.  I don’t think that would be enough to scuttle a deal either.  He’s a rental player with a proven track record of success that would immediately give their top six a boost.  They wouldn’t necessarily need New Jersey to retain half of the cap hit and salary which gives them a small edge that most of his other potential suitors don’t have.

Failing that, the focus will be on other rentals.  Taylor Hall would have to be considered with the usual retention caveat applying.  If Columbus opts to sell, Nick Foligno is the type of player that would fit New York’s playing style and given GM Lou Lamoriello’s affinity for Travis Zajac, I’m sure there will be a cursory inquiry if their options on the wing all fall through.

A sniper like Laine would help every team but acquiring him would really complicate things for the Islanders on the salary cap front next season.  A restricted free agent, Laine is owed a $7.5MM qualifying offer and he will likely be seeking more than that with salary arbitration eligibility.  The Isles have nearly $75MM in commitments already for next season per CapFriendly to just 15 players.  Even backing out Johnny Boychuk’s $6MM as he’ll be LTIR-eligible once again, they don’t have enough cap room to take on Laine’s expected contract, fill out the rest of their roster, and stay cap-compliant.  The focus needs to be on rental players as a result with Lee expected to be ready to return next season.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Realistically what could the returns be for the Devils players rumored to be on the block?

Palmieri, Kulikov, Murray, Subban, Gusev

Kyle Palmieri – Based on his history of being a consistent scorer, GM Tom Fitzgerald would probably like to see a first-round pick for Palmieri’s services.  I’m not overly confident he’ll get it though.  With just eight goals this season in 34 games, he’s not exactly playing at the top of his game which is going to hurt.  A second-round pick seems low but that coupled with a decent prospect should be doable.  If they have to retain money, the quality of the prospect should increase.

Dmitry Kulikov – I took a closer look at him last weekend so I won’t rehash that here.  He’s worth a mid-round pick or comparable prospect.

Ryan Murray – He’s someone that probably isn’t cracking the top four of a playoff-bound team and at $4.6MM, he’s expensive for a third-pairing player.  He’s worth a mid-round pick as long as New Jersey retains half of the money and probably takes some sort of salary offset back.

P.K. Subban – He’s having a better year than last season but that’s not saying much.  His price tag is way too expensive for teams to fit in and it’s hard to imagine the Devils being willing to retain half which they’d need to if they wanted to make a deal.  I don’t see a feasible trade for him by the deadline.

Nikita Gusev – Gusev cleared waivers yesterday so the ‘give him away for free’ option is off the table.  It has been a dreadful year for him and I doubt there is much if any interest in him around the league.  If there’s a swap of bad contracts in a change of scenery type of trade, perhaps he moves but he probably stays and a buyout in the summer shouldn’t be ruled out.

kales1206: Do you think the Avalanche will be making some moves to improve their goaltending depth because I know Johansson isn’t the answer?

They certainly would benefit from such a move.  While I understand the idea behind targeting Jonas Johansson, playing in front of a better team has not made him a better goalie.  Is he an upgrade on what Hunter Miska was providing?  A bit but he also isn’t going to be reliable enough to be the full-fledged backup if Pavel Francouz doesn’t return which is something that seems like a real possibility at this point.  There was a reason that Buffalo parted with him for so little as they had clearly given up on him.  It was worth a shot they would be wise to take a better one…if they can afford it.

A lot is going to depend on Francouz’s outlook over the next ten days.  If they think he’s done for the season, they’ll be able to spend his money on a replacement – perhaps Jonathan Bernier with Detroit retaining some money?  To me, that makes the most sense.  But if they believe that Francouz will be back, that complicates things as they’d need to get back into cap compliance to activate Francouz.  That’s doable if Erik Johnson doesn’t come back and stays on LTIR for the rest of the season but he has been week to week for many weeks now; there’s a lot of uncertainty with him as well.

Adding a veteran upgrade to help Philipp Grubauer should be high on GM Joe Sakic’s wish list as long as Francouz can’t return for the rest of the year.  If that determination is made, then yes, I do believe they’ll add a goalie.  But if they can’t reach that conclusion on him or Johnson, it becomes a lot more complicated to try to make a move, a hurdle that could be too tricky to overcome cap-wise.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Any chance Francis tries to pry Laviolette from Washington? Could make an expansion draft like deal but for a coach.

I know there’s a brief connection between Seattle GM Ron Francis and Washington head coach Peter Laviolette from their days in Carolina when Francis was still playing but is Laviolette so much better than any other current head coaching candidate that isn’t currently with a team to justify ‘trading’ for him?  I don’t think that’s the case, especially with Gerard Gallant, who helped lead the last expansion team to a better-than-expected start, still out there.

There’s also the matter of being unable to trade coaches like Quebec did with Michel Bergeron back in 1987 when they traded him to the Rangers for a first-round pick or Toronto including the negotiating rights to Marc Crawford as part of the Mats Sundin trade seven years later, also involving Quebec.  That makes it really difficult to try to do things on the up and up, so to speak.

For something like this to happen, the Capitals would have to fire Laviolette, then Laviolette would have to go on an interview tour to show that this wasn’t a pre-arranged deal before being hired for the same or higher rate than he’s getting now, and lastly, Seattle would have to make a trade that is in Washington’s favor but not by enough to raise the eyebrows of the league who could probably piece it together anyway.  It’s a creative idea but I don’t think it’s doable and with how the Caps are doing this year, I don’t see Washington wanting to let Laviolette go anyway even with some sort of compensation.

gozurman1: What would you do, if anything, if you were the Penguins? It appears Jarry is coming back within the next game or two. Same with Blueger. If Malkin and Kapanen are both good to go, would you mess with altering the team that seems to have been playing well since February when the defensemen all got healthy?

I’d definitely be trying to add if I was GM Ron Hextall.  They don’t need to make several trades and ship players out to shake things up but if they can afford to add a veteran piece or two to improve the depth on the roster, they should be doing so.  These types of players shouldn’t be drastically altering team chemistry by any stretch.

As for what they should be trying to add, I’d be looking down the middle.  Evgeni Malkin is nearing a return but between him and Jared McCann both missing considerable time, an insurance policy would definitely be ideal.  Someone that could fill the role that Matt Cullen did in the past where he could kill penalties and be decent enough offensively to be able to slide onto the third line if someone gets hurt.  Team president Brian Burke has indicated that they’re looking for more grit so that’s an element they’ll probably want to target as well.

Of course, cap space is at a premium, especially with Malkin set to come off LTIR somewhat soon.  Per CapFriendly, they can only add about $1.1MM on deadline day so it’s going to take a bit of creativity to add to the roster.  Pittsburgh can afford a depth upgrade and that’s about it; a move like that shouldn’t create any concerns of disrupting team chemistry.

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The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away and activity is starting to pick up around the league.  However, with this being a unique year in terms of so many teams being up against the salary cap, it’s likely to be a unique deadline.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.  If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. The first discussed Jake DeBrusk’s struggles in Boston and his potential to be moved, what New Jersey needs to, plus some thoughts on the upcoming UFA goalie market.  The second looked at the idea that the Sharks could be buyers at the deadline, what Dougie Hamilton’s next contract might look like, and the never-ending search for a top-line center in Columbus.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.  The mailbag will run this weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago’s surprising first half, San Jose’s trade deadline plans, an emerging line for Toronto, Carolina’s top pending UFA, trade options for Detroit, goaltending forecasts, Boston’s potential for a big addition, what’s next for Jim Rutherford, and Columbus’ never-ending quest for help down the middle.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

parx: What is to be made of the Blackhawks? I honestly thought they would be awful but I’m enjoying this season more than past few, are they good or decent? Is this a mirage? What the hell is going on?

I think decent is the right word here.  They’ve had a few things go their way including Patrick Kane stepping up his game to another level, Kevin Lankinen at least temporarily solving the goaltending question, and some unheralded newcomers (Pius Suter, Philipp Kurashev, and even Mattias Janmark) all probably exceeding expectations.  Give GM Stan Bowman some credit, these under-the-radar moves have all worked out.

But at the same time, I have trouble thinking that Chicago is a top-ten team offensively over a full season (they currently sit seventh).  Lankinen has tailed off a bit lately and Malcolm Subban isn’t the solution in that number one role.  They’re also benefiting from Columbus underachieving, Nashville falling off the proverbial cliff, and Dallas scuffling with their injuries plus the starts and stops to their season.  A lot has gone better than expected.

The good news is that they’re somewhat comfortably in a playoff spot without a lot of pressure at the moment.  Kirby Dach is skating and should be back before the season is out which would be a nice addition up front.  It’s definitely a positive season for them but I’d caution against elevating expectations too much or thinking that their plans have been accelerated.  They’re on the rise but I wouldn’t call them good just yet.

mz90gu: The Sharks almost always make trades at the deadline. They do have some cap space; do you see them as buyer/seller maybe take on a contract for an additional pick?

It’s hard to see them being a buyer in the traditional sense given that they are nine points out of a playoff spot with three teams to leapfrog in the West Division.  But it wouldn’t surprise me to see them add a veteran player.

Cap space is at a premium this season and as you rightly note, that’s something they have a lot of.  As things stand, they could add nearly $9MM on deadline day, per CapFriendly.  While they probably shouldn’t be adding to try to make a failed run, how valuable is that space to other teams?  Taking on a contract to pick up an extra draft pick or prospect makes a lot of sense for San Jose whose system isn’t exactly the strongest.  Even acting as a third-party retainer in a trade while adding another asset (much like Toronto did in the Robin Lehner trade at the deadline last year) would be useful as long as it’s an expiring contract.

Of course, in a year like this, there are budgetary considerations at play and majority owner Hasso Plattner may not be thrilled about the idea of spending more money in a year where they’re probably not making the playoffs.  But if he’s okay with it, I think San Jose would be wise to add a player or two but more importantly, pick up the younger assets that would go along with facilitating the opportunity to help another team make a move.  Having said that, I wouldn’t be shocked if they look to move out a pending UFA or two as well.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Thoughts on the Maple Leafs’ new MEH line. Mikheyev, Engvall and Hyman?

I’ll resist the temptation to say the obvious but that line has been quite strong since it has been put together though it’s not one that is always together from shift to shift.  Zach Hyman, in particular, is having another strong season to the point where he may very well be playing his way off the team in that he’ll be too expensive to keep around.

This is what Toronto needed with their collection of lower-salaried players.  They need a few of them to develop some chemistry to create a reliable unit that’s greater than the sum of its individual parts.  This line does that.

I’d caution to enjoy it while it lasts, however.  At some point, Hyman will spend more time on the top line than with these two (yesterday’s game had him back with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner) and when Wayne Simmonds returns, I’m not sure they’ll be able to afford to carry Pierre Engvall on the roster anymore.  Simmonds is on LTIR and right now, Toronto isn’t in cap compliance to be able to activate him.  They have no regulars that are waiver exempt so someone is getting exposed and with most of Engvall’s $1.25MM price tag being able to come off the books if he was to clear, he may wind up being the casualty.

mikedickinson: Dougie Hamilton. What do the Canes pay their third-best defenseman, especially with how well Jake Bean is playing?

This is going to be an interesting case.  Hamilton has been great for Carolina and even with his offensive numbers taking a dip relative to last year, he’s still playing at a 63-point pace over a full 82-game season (compared to a 70-point pace last year).  His minutes are still that of a top-pairing player which is how his agent J.P. Barry will undoubtedly try to market him.  That Carolina plays others ahead of him and has Bean having a good season is largely irrelevant to Hamilton’s case.  His numbers show he’s a top-pairing defenseman which are hard to come by, he’s in the prime of his career at 27, and is a right-shot player (the harder to get side).  If the Hurricanes want to pay him relative to his role on the depth chart, a deal probably doesn’t get done.

Last week when word came out that talks between the two sides had stalled, Alex Pietrangelo ($8.8MM) and Torey Krug ($6.5MM) were suggested as the potential targets for each side.  I think the likeliest outcome is a bit lower than the midpoint, something around $7.4MM to $7.5MM.  We saw in October’s free agent market that top blueliners still got paid so even with a flattened salary cap, Hamilton will get a big raise from his $5.75MM price tag.  Can GM Don Waddell justify that price tag with nearly $20MM in commitments to defense already for next season and several other key pieces needing new contracts?  I think it should be.  Their success comes from having an elite back end and Hamilton is a big part of it.  Re-signing him may force them to part with Brady Skjei or try to entice a taker for Jake Gardiner’s deal but it’d be awfully tough to let a top-quality blueliner walk for free in a few months.

tigers22: Which Red Wings player would bring back the biggest return at the trade deadline and what kind of package would they get Mantha or Bertuzzi?

Anthony Mantha’s value this year has taken a tumble.  Last season, a reasonable asking price would have been a first-round pick, a high-quality prospect, and probably some sort of cap filler.  But this season has been a struggle and that’s putting it lightly.  His point per game production is at the lowest rate of his career (beyond his rookie year where he played in just 10 games) and his trade value is probably at its lowest point.  With three years left after this at a $5.7MM cap hit, the teams that would be calling GM Steve Yzerman at this point would be ones looking to swap similarly underachieving $5MM-plus forwards.  That wouldn’t make any sense for Detroit.

So by default, the answer here would be Tyler Bertuzzi even though he hasn’t played a game since the end of January due to an upper-body injury.  He’s a bit cheaper and the injury is going to limit his earning ceiling through arbitration this summer so that’s at least somewhat palatable to some teams.  But no one is giving up any sort of top-end value for someone who hasn’t played in six weeks and doesn’t appear to be anywhere near close to returning so Yzerman has no reason to even consider a Bertuzzi trade at this time.  If he was inclined to move him for whatever reason, the offseason would be the time.

In terms of who actually fetches the best return for Detroit between now and next month’s trade deadline, I think it’s Luke Glendening.  He has been in deadline speculation for a few years now but with his contract expiring, this is the time to make a move.  He’s still elite at the faceoff dot and there will be contenders willing to pay for that while his $1.8MM AAV will be easier to work in to a cap-strapped roster than someone like Mantha.  It won’t be a package of high picks and prospects (a second-rounder is about the top end of what they could try to ask for) but they can still add more assets.

The Duke: Any Crystal Ball visions for Jamie Drysdale, Rasmus Sandin and Arizona’s, Winnipeg’s and Nashville’s goaltending into the next few seasons?

Drysdale: Let me first say that I like that Anaheim is holding him in the minors and not bringing him up.  Could he help the Ducks now?  Sure, but I don’t want to burn an entry-level year in a season where they’re not going anywhere.  The AHL is still a good level to develop at and if they hold him down there long enough, they could conceivably recall him to the NHL roster if and when the OHL starts without being on the roster (active or healthy scratch) for enough games to accrue a season of service time.  He will be a top-pairing defender in the near future but while he may get there quicker if he was up now, he’ll be well worth the wait.

Sandin: This season is quickly turning into a write-off after he suffered a foot injury in his first AHL contest of the year.  This will slow his development but it shouldn’t hurt too much in the long run.  Toronto’s cap situation could force Sandin onto their roster next season anyway but he’s someone that will need to be developed a bit slower than Drysdale as Sandin doesn’t have the all-around game that the Anaheim blueliner does.  I don’t think he has top-pairing upside but if he became a 20-minute per game player with some offensive punch, the Maple Leafs would be quite pleased with that outcome.

Coyotes: The goaltending is a bit concerning beyond next season.  It’s hard to imagine Antti Raanta (UFA this summer) returns next season while Adin Hill (pending RFA) could be a backup but isn’t going to push for the number one role.  That leaves Darcy Kuemper as the only other and he’s just signed through 2021-22 and given his injury trouble, it’s hard to see him being the long-term starter though they’d probably like to have him as a 1B option.  I expect they will be shopping on the 2021-22 market for their longer-term option.

Jets: Connor Hellebuyck has three years left on his deal at a more than fair $6.167MM AAV and at this point, I see no reason to think why they wouldn’t offer an extension.  Of the three goalies they have on NHL deals in the system, I don’t see an NHL option out of any of them so they’ll be playing the UFA roulette market for backups.  Laurent Brossoit is doing well enough to earn another contract but given his inconsistency year-to-year, I wouldn’t go more than a year at a time with him.

Predators: Long term, Yaroslav Askarov is their guy, at least they hope he is but he’s a few years away.  Juuse Saros’ season has not been one to inspire confidence that he can be the full-fledged starter next year so I believe they’ll inquire if Pekka Rinne wants to retire or perhaps push that back a year.  Failing that, a short-term veteran platoon goalie (Raanta, Jonathan Bernier, or even David Rittich if they want a bit of upside) would be a likely target in July.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for the Flames, an underachieving winger in Boston, rebuilding New Jersey, projecting the most prominent player moved at the trade deadline, the futures of Ralph Krueger and Jared Bednar, thoughts a Minnesota forward who has produced in the minors yet hasn’t had much of an opportunity, looking at the free agent goalie market, and a first in the history of this mailbag column (spanning more than four years).  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s piece.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What do you do if you’re the Flames? I know the Markstrom injury is unfortunate but this season must be a disappointment as of now.

Clearly, this question came before Thursday night’s coaching change but I can safely say my answer wouldn’t have been hiring Darryl Sutter on a three-year contract though his style may wind up being the kick that the team ultimately needs.  But with that having now been done, let’s look ahead past that.

I’d like to see their top four defensemen get a bit more playing time; they don’t have anyone at 22 minutes a game.  Having some balance isn’t necessarily a bad thing but I don’t think giving Nikita Nesterov 16 minutes a game is the best usage for him, especially with his struggles in his own end.  On the flip side, the fourth line has been underused; bringing Glenn Gawdin in to play less than six minutes a game is really pointless.  The fourth line can’t be that much of a liability nowadays.

Unfortunately, this is not a season where Canadian teams will be able to trade their way out of their troubles.  The two-week quarantine for players coming from the other 24 teams is going to act as more of a deterrent now than it did earlier in the year and while it doesn’t make a trade impossible, it doesn’t make one likely.  What they have now is what they’re going to need to work with moving forward but if they can make a small move, I’d look for a third-pairing blueliner and some upgraded forward depth by the deadline.

I’m intrigued to see how Sam Bennett fares under Sutter; I think he will benefit a lot from the change.  They’ll play with more of an edge now and I think that will suit Bennett just fine.  Jacob Markstrom returning will certainly help as well.  This isn’t a year where Calgary is going to contend but at the same time, they’re within striking distance of a playoff spot and the teams directly ahead of them have their own flaws.  After this coaching change, it’ll just be small tweaks and that may very well be enough to get in.

@jrice521: I don’t see how the Bruins keep DeBrusk at the trade deadline. His production is virtually nothing. One goal to date on the season. Shouldn’t they try to pry Virtanen out of Vancouver? They probably both need a change of scenery!

There’s no denying that Jake DeBrusk is having a tough year and he is definitely a change of scenery candidate as a result.  So too is Jake Virtanen and in theory, the idea has a bit of merit.

From Boston’s perspective, Virtanen has the weaker track record and a lengthier history of inconsistent play so there is some risk.  But they also would benefit from the cheaper cap hit in terms of freeing up a bit more flexibility to add another piece and also would appreciate the cheaper qualifying offer in the 2022 offseason.

However, that same reason is why Vancouver doesn’t do the deal.  Virtanen’s $3.4MM price tag next season (in terms of salary plus signing bonus) was a big reason the trade talks with Anaheim didn’t go anywhere and DeBrusk’s pay checks in at $4.85MM next year.  I suspect Vancouver’s interest in Danton Heinen was more centered around the expiring contract where he could be non-tendered with the team then getting out of that final year of Virtanen’s obligation.  While DeBrusk is the more proven player, that extra cost in terms of real money and cap space isn’t going to go over well, especially since big-ticket deals for Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes are on the immediate horizon.

This is a season where quite a few of the trades made in the coming weeks will likely involve swapping change of scenery players so this type of move makes some sense on paper but the economic element probably stops it from happening, at least straight up.

SpeakOfTheDevil: What sort of adjustments do the Devils need to make to finally get out of this ongoing rebuild? I honestly want to know how you would make this team better.

Most teams in the league have some sort of identity.  Some are defense-first that rely on the goaltending, others have high-end offenses.  Some really like to push the pace.  I honestly have no idea what New Jersey’s identity is.  They’ve been trying to make incremental upgrades to deepen their roster which is an okay starting spot but at some point, you have to pick a direction and build around that.  They seem to want to build around their attack so I’ll make my plan based on that.

Goaltending – There isn’t much I’d do here.  I liked the Corey Crawford signing to give Mackenzie Blackwood some insurance and it’s not New Jersey’s fault that Crawford had a last-minute change of heart.  Adding another similar veteran next year would be ideal.

Defense – Having puck-movers that can accelerate the attack is all well and good but they need someone who can actually defend in their own end as well.  I liked the Ryan Murray addition for that reason and leveraging their cap room to do something like that again would work.  Will Butcher is an expensive extraneous piece right now; if they’re content with their puck-movers, try to flip him for a more stable defensive defender.  Their atrocious penalty kill (which sits at 62.5% heading into Saturday’s game) will improve as a result.

Forwards – Sell out for high-end skill on the wing.  It’s great to have seven or eight wingers capable of scoring double-digit goals.  But those players shouldn’t be on the top two lines.  Unfortunately, their only true top-six winger is Kyle Palmieri, a pending UFA.  They’re set down the middle with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Pavel Zacha.  But for them to truly reach their ceiling, they need wingers that are capable of producing consistently and they don’t have that.  I recognize that they’re not a free agent destination but in this cap environment, them having more cap room than most counts for a lot.  And if they can’t add an impact UFA, then leverage that cap space into adding an impact player; don’t settle for another Andreas Johnsson.

There’s a decent young core foundation in place with their centers, Blackwood, and Ty Smith.  That’s a good start but until they can supplement them with impact wingers and not just above-average role players, they’re going to spin their tires.  Unfortunately for GM Tom Fitzgerald, accomplishing that is something that’s easier said than done but they can’t have another offseason of incremental upgrades if they want to take that next step.

DarkSide830: Biggest name dealt at the deadline?

I know Taylor Hall is open to staying in Buffalo and the Sabres would like to have him back but I think it’s Hall that will be the biggest name moved.  Given how much the 29-year-old has struggled this season, it’s hard to see the two sides agreeing on a price point for a long-term extension that both sides will be happy with.  Hall went to the Sabres in part to try to prove that he’s still a top-line player with an eye on securing the lucrative long-term contract he couldn’t get in October.  Now, he needs to get out of Buffalo to accomplish the very thing he signed there to do.

From Buffalo’s perspective, they’re almost certainly missing the playoffs again so there’s no reason to hold onto him if there’s no extension in place.  If they’re willing to retain, they should be able to land a decent return (not quite what the Devils got a year ago, however) as $4MM for a second-liner which is more of where he should be valued isn’t impossible.  The Sabres will need to take a contract back but there’s a suitable trade to be made.

LarryJ4: Does it look as clear to you as it does to me that the Sabres GM Kevyn Adams is completely handcuffed by Pegula when it comes to Krueger? If you had to choose between the next coach for Buffalo, who would it be? I’m hearing more Gallant than Boudreau but I think with the mix we have Boudreau would be better. Oh, and a goalie is needed as a stop-gap?

I don’t think Adams is being handcuffed by ownership when it comes to Krueger.  Adams has been on the job for all of 22 games and doesn’t have the prior front office experience to have a better feel for things.  When you’re wading through your first experiences, the logical step is to ere on the side of caution.  In this case, it’s keeping Krueger around and trying to be patient.  He can wait to make the move in the offseason if he needs to where he’d have a slightly better foundation to draw from or if things keep going off the rails, sometime between now and then.

I’m not sure Gerard Gallant takes the Buffalo job if it was to be offered to him.  This is not a situation that looks overly desirable from the outside given the turnover they’ve had and the fact they’re perpetually not improving.  He can afford to be selective.  Bruce Boudreau does make some sense though.  This team can’t score and he has been known to get his teams to at least average in that regard.  Even that would be an improvement.  Is Boudreau the coach to take Buffalo back to the promised land?  No, but he’d lay a better foundation for whoever comes after him.  If the Sabres were to make a coaching move, he would make some sense.

If Adams thinks they can stay in the playoff race, then yes, a stopgap goalie needs to be added.  I was shocked that they passed on Alex Stalock as he felt like the perfect fit though given what he just went through, maybe there were some lingering health concerns on Buffalo’s end.  But if they’re going to throw in the towel and sell, I’d give Jonas Johansson a longer look.  Can he be the future backup?  Now is as good a time as any to try and find out.

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