PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the winners and losers of the NHL’s realignment, players that benefitted the most from offseason trades, Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s scoring record, predictions for several players and the potential for fans to be allowed in arenas this season, what’s next for Boston’s back end, and how one of the top-scoring OHL players last season went undrafted.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

acarneglia: Biggest winners and losers of proposed 2021 divisions?

St. Louis and Colorado find themselves in a nice spot in the West Division.  While they now have to contend with Vegas, that’s the only other team in that group that was in the top eight in the Western Conference.  The battle for the top two spots and home ice in the first round will be tight but there are more games against weaker opponents than there would be with the normal alignment.  I’d also put Columbus and Carolina in the winner category as they get to avoid the gauntlet that is the East Division and move into a group that has more weaker opponents.  Tampa Bay and Dallas are there too but those last two spots should be easier to get than had they been assigned with the other teams in the East.

As for teams that aren’t so fortunate, I have to put Buffalo at the top of the list.  They added Taylor Hall and Eric Staal and while their team has improved, they get to play most of the top teams from the Metropolitan and don’t get to escape Boston while they’re at it.  The three Canadian teams from the Pacific Division lose the opportunity to play against some of the rebuilding and likely less competitive teams and now get to face a potent Toronto team, Montreal who improved considerably, and Winnipeg who is always in the playoff mix instead while playing a higher percentage of games outside of their time zone.  (Even Ottawa has shown improvement although their playoff hopes took a hit with this format as well.)

Eaton Harass: Which player do you feel will benefit most since changing teams this offseason? And how many times do you think Devon Toews said “thank you God” after his trade to the Avs?

I’d go with Max Domi.  He leaves a situation in Montreal where he was being squeezed out of his preferred position to one where it looks as if he’ll have a defined role as their second-line center in Columbus behind Pierre-Luc Dubois.  I could see his ice time moving up to a new career-high as well and he should get plenty of power play time.  On top of that, he wound up signing what amounts to a second bridge deal, one that walks him to unrestricted free agency two years from now.  Assuming he can improve upon his performance with the Canadiens last season (and he’ll have ample opportunity to do so), he should be able to position himself quite nicely for an even bigger payday two years from now.  He probably wouldn’t have had that chance with Montreal.

I’ll toss out a couple of under the radar names as well.  Minnesota’s addition of Nick Bjugstad for next to nothing didn’t garner much attention but he’s going to go from a situation where he would have had a limited role to probably being a middle-six center.  If he can stay healthy and produce, he should be able to restore some value quickly.  The other is Pittsburgh’s pickup of Mike Matheson.  I think moving to a winning environment will help as well as lower expectations.  They can also afford to work him in slowly on the third pairing.  I expect that he should benefit a fair bit from that particular combination.

As for Toews, there are definitely worse situations to be traded to but it’s not like he was leaving a terrible one with the Islanders.  He had just emerged as an impact defender with them and may have even had a bigger role this coming season.  They’ve also been quite competitive despite a roster that isn’t the strongest on paper so it’s not as if he’s leaving a perennial non-playoff team either.  It worked out well for him in the end – he got a long-term deal from a top team – but I think he’d have been just fine sticking around where he was had they been able to afford him cap-wise.

2012orioles: Will Ovechkin lose his chance to catch Gretzky with another shortened season?

It certainly doesn’t help his odds.  He sits 188 away from matching the record so 189 is the target.  Here’s some quick math to come up with some projections.

Ovechkin is averaging 0.61 goals per game in his career and while that has dipped slightly over the last four years, it has only gone down to 0.58 goals per game which still represents a 47-goal pace over a full 82-game season.  He’s going to slow down at some point but that time isn’t now and even when he eventually does slow down, he’ll still be producing at a pretty good clip.

Let’s forecast his goal per game average at 0.5 for this next four-year stint (assuming his next deal runs that long considering he has made it clear that he intends to play in Russia again before his career is over).  That’s a bigger drop-off than before but I don’t think that’s unrealistic as he’s still a top scorer.  Assuming the NHL gets back to an 82-game schedule after 2020-21, that would give him 302 games to work with, or 151 goals.  That’s assuming he stays healthy but it’s worth noting that he has only missed six games over the last six years combined and not all of those were due to injuries.  As far as players go, Ovechkin is quite durable.

That would put him around 35-40 goals behind Gretzky and at that point of his career, it may take two years to get there.  Had 2020-21 been a full season, that target could be shaved by 10-15 goals which could have shortened the number of years to catch him by one which is significant.

For me, it all depends on Ovechkin’s desire to get the record.  If he wants it, he’ll stick around long enough to get it, even if it means him staying with Washington for an extra year than it may have taken otherwise.  But if he wants to go back to the KHL before he’s in his early 40s, then this abbreviated campaign could be the difference.  I don’t think it will be though – Ovechkin will either get it or be more than 10-15 goals behind Gretzky when he decides that his time in North America has come to an end.

The Duke: Crystal Ball Scoutings (e.g., annual goals/points; PP unit; top- or bottom-6, etc.) please for Mssrs. Veleno, Lindblom, Tolvanen, Zadina, Rasmus Sandin & Adin Hill. Thanks in advance.

Joe Veleno: I know he was a prolific scorer in the QMJHL but I don’t see him being a big point producer in the NHL.  Detroit would be happy with him cracking the second line but I like him more as a two-way third-line center with secondary special teams time.  He should be a valuable player for them but that won’t necessarily translate to a ton of production – maybe 15 goals, 35 points per season.  He’s a couple of years from being in that role, however.

Oskar Lindblom: Assuming he is able to get back to the level he was at before his cancer diagnosis (and the contract he got from the Flyers suggests they believe he can), he should settle in around the 20-25 goal mark and around 40-45 points.  (He was on pace for more than that last season but that shooting percentage probably wasn’t sustainable.)  I’m not sure he’ll be able to get number one minutes (which could also push him to the second power play unit more often than not) but he should quickly work his way back onto the second line.

Eeli Tolvanen – I thought he was a sure-fire top-six player when he was drafted but I’m not as sure now after his first two seasons with AHL Milwaukee.  Maybe he’s someone that ultimately plays a lot better with more talented players but at this stage, it’s hard to forecast a top-six role down the road.  He’ll be eased in when he gets to Nashville full time so it’ll be a while yet before he reaches his ceiling.  Right now, 10-15 goals and 25-30 points with secondary power play time would be my projection.

Filip Zadina – Can he drive a line or is he more of a complementary scorer?  That’s the big question and there are two different statlines depending on the answer.  One is a 30-plus goal-getter with consistency, the other is closer to 20-25 per year that could get to 30 once or twice if all goes well.  I’m leaning towards the latter category but he’ll see plenty of top-six minutes and top unit power play time either way.

Rasmus Sandin – A lot depends on Morgan Rielly’s future.  If Toronto can’t afford to re-sign him, Sandin could very well become the lynchpin to their offense from the back end.  That would mean plenty of power play time and with the firepower they have, 45-50 points (10 or so goals) wouldn’t be out of the question.  If Rielly re-signs, however, Sandin becomes more of a secondary power play threat which could dip him more towards the 30-35-point territory.

Adin Hill – He should get his first real NHL opportunity in 2021-22 once Antti Raanta likely moves elsewhere in free agency but I’m not sure he’s a starter down the road.  I’d have him around the 25-30 start mark as his ceiling as a result.

Baji Kimran: What are the chances fans will be allowed in the arenas this season? I’m a full season ticket holder for the Columbus Blue Jackets and I’m starting to think I’ll be watching all the games on television. I’m hoping you’ll tell me I’m wrong.

I’d put the odds at 100% that fans will be allowed in some arenas this season as there are a handful of teams that will have limited capacity to start the season.  A lot will depend on how things go with the virus over the next few months.  Will the number of positive tests start to decrease sharply; how quickly will vaccinations make a difference?  And, of course, each jurisdiction’s respective health authorities have various levels of tolerance for risk; what one city thinks is risky could be considered acceptable in others.

I’m not as bullish that things are going to drastically change in the next couple of months.  While there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, progress is still going to be gradual.  As a result, I expect quite a few teams will ultimately go without fans for the entire year.  And if Columbus happens to be a state that allows some fans, I imagine it would be with limited capacity and with it, perhaps some sort of lottery to determine which season ticket holders get to attend which games.  You could get a chance at watching a handful in-person if all goes well but I suspect you’ll be watching most of the games on television.

VonBrewski: I hear the Bruins are not taking Chara back. So, what does Boston do on the left-side D?

I wouldn’t rule out Zdeno Chara returning to Boston just yet.  While team president Cam Neely has spoken about the desire to get a look at some of their younger options, they haven’t ruled out the veteran returning yet.  Earlier this week, his agent also indicated that Chara’s focus at this time is returning to the Bruins although other teams have reached out as well.

But let’s assume he doesn’t come back for the purpose of this question.  I expected someone to be brought in to try to replace Torey Krug but that clearly hasn’t happened and with less than $3MM in cap room, there isn’t a top-four option available.  I expect Matt Grzelcyk will be tasked with taking on a bigger role and after hovering between 18-19 minutes a night the last two years, he’ll probably come in closer to 22 minutes per game or so.  They’ll also hope that John Moore can hold down a regular spot in the lineup after playing a sparing role last season.

After that, youngsters like Urho Vaakanainen and Jakub Zboril are likely to get a long look with the hopes that one of them can take hold of a regular spot.  It also wouldn’t be shocking for one of their right-shot options to be asked to change sides and a lefty or two could be brought in on a PTO (they were linked to Karl Alzner a couple of months ago) to give them some more options.  It’d be a patchwork fix no matter what though which is why I don’t think they’ve entirely closed the door on Chara just yet.  While he’s not the top-pairing player he once was, he’s still better than some of the options here.

bigalval: Pavel Gogolev was not drafted again and had to sign overseas. I don’t get this because his stats a were great in the OHL. Why did no one draft him or sign him as a player who was not drafted, I watched a lot of video on this kid, he could be a steal. Could have signed him for next to nothing. Any ideas?

There’s no denying that Gogolev’s numbers were quite impressive last season – 45 goals and 51 assists in 63 games with Guelph, good for sixth in league scoring.  But there are a few factors that I think contributed to him being passed on again, aside from simply being Russian which still tends to scare some teams off (even though he moved to Canada early on).

As you alluded to, it wasn’t Gogolev’s first draft-eligible year and his performance in his prior years of eligibility weren’t particularly strong.  Was his jump in production due to him putting everything together, simply being a year older and stronger, or due to chemistry with a particular linemate?  The last two are almost certainly factors and that would have worked against him.

Gogolev has shown that he can score at the junior level but players with that type of production that get passed up on are often viewed as highly flawed in other areas.  It’s safe to infer that the fact he went unpicked again means that teams have similar concerns here.  Yegor Sokolov, another 2000-born prospect, had a similar jump in the QMJHL last year and was picked in the second round by Ottawa.  It’s the all-around game that was the difference.

It’s worth noting that while he has been passed up again in the draft, he did spend time at camps in Detroit and Vegas in the past so he is on the NHL radar for some teams and perhaps down the road he’ll be able to land an entry-level deal as an undrafted free agent.

Interestingly enough, Gogolev was able to find a place to play just yesterday as Vasby of the Allsvenskan in Sweden announced that they’ve signed him.  A good showing there would certainly bolster his value around the NHL.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Rangers’ chances of contention, Tampa Bay’s cap situation, Anaheim’s future, fits for Aleksander Barkov if he wants to leave Florida, World Juniors predictions, who could replace Alex Steen in St. Louis, and what the trade market may look like in this unique season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

gg24: Are the Rangers a true contender?

This season?  I’d say no.  The short-term divisional realignment does not work in their favor.  Boston should still contend while Pittsburgh and Washington always seem to get near the top of the division as well.  Philadelphia is certainly a team on the rise and their fellow New York rivals in the Islanders have shown that even without an overly strong roster on paper, they’ll be in the mix as well.  The Rangers would have to jump two of those teams simply to make the playoffs (assuming they use divisional playoffs without a Wild Card system which would be needed due to the Canadian division).  Then they’d need to knock out two more to get to the final four which would be contender status for this season.  I don’t see that happening.

As much as they surpassed expectations last season, it’s important to remember that a lot of their core is still young and some have very little experience.  A lot went right down the stretch last year but a step back for some of their players isn’t entirely unrealistic.  There is a core in place that eventually should be able to get them to take another step or two forward (if they can keep them all in place as the players on entry-level deals sign richer second contracts) to get to that potential contender status.  But with everything mentioned here, I have a hard time thinking that they get to that tier this season.

decaghuard: Zetterberg contract to Tampa Bay rumor: if true, would this help Tampa Bay gain cap space?

First, a bit of background on where this is coming from for those that aren’t aware of it.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman cited it on a Sportsnet 960 appearance (audio link), noting that it came from Europe and that the speculation is that Tyler Johnson would be involved.  I’ll add that a one-for-one swap of those two contracts doesn’t make any sense for Detroit so I would expect the Lightning to have to add to do that deal.

To answer your question, yes, it effectively would give them some extra cap flexibility eventually, even with adding a little over $1MM in a cap hit with Henrik Zetterberg being on the books for $6.083MM while Johnson is at $5MM.  The kicker is that they still would need to move out another contract of note to try to avoid having to into offseason LTIR.  A deal like this would put them about $3MM over the Upper Limit and that’s why Alex Killorn’s name has been out there in trade speculation for most of the offseason.  If they can move him out and get back into compliance, they can then put Zetterberg on LTIR and have up to $6.083MM to use there.  (Their LTIR space would be that amount less whatever existing cap room they have at the time; they don’t automatically get the full amount.)

That money might be enough to get short-term deals for Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak done which would solve the cap problem for this season.  Of course, moving money at this time has proven to be difficult so even with that possible road map, it’s still much easier said than done.

JustPete: The Anaheim Ducks appear to be a mess this year. Over the cap, lacking a backup goalie, need help on offense and defense, facing the upcoming expansion draft – and the bright spots they do have are young and at least a year or two away.

Is it time for a new GM to lead the team into and out of the seemingly inevitable rebuilding year(s)?

I’m not too worried about Anaheim’s salary cap situation.  Yes, they’re a bit over but they can cut down some roster spots with waiver-exempt players at the start of the season, have Anthony Stolarz as a short-term backup, and then transfer Ryan Kesler to LTIR to free up cap room to bring in a better backup.  At least, that’s the ideal plan although at this point, there aren’t a whole lot of quality backups available; re-signing Ryan Miller may actually be their best option at this point.  There should be enough money left over to add help up front or on the back end as well (but not both).

Clearly, Anaheim’s ownership is content with the state of their retooling at this point considering things are where they are now so I don’t foresee Bob Murray being let go.  But if they decide to change their mind, this season would be the time to do so.

Ryan Getzlaf and David Backes will be unrestricted free agents next offseason while Corey Perry’s buyout cap hit drops back down.  Between those three, that’s over $17MM in savings and there aren’t any pending restricted free agents that will be looking at a big raise that year either.  That will give them ample cap space at a time where few teams have cap room.  They’re well-positioned to try to address some of those issues at that time so there is light at the end of the tunnel.  Between that and their younger players continuing to progress, there’s a path towards getting back to at least playoff contention.

Eaton Harass: Which team is the best fit for Barkov once he inevitably wants out of South Florida?

I certainly don’t expect Aleksander Barkov to ask for a trade even if the Panthers have a tough season.  His contract is up in 2022 and he’ll be eligible for unrestricted free agency at that time so if he wants a change of scenery, he could very well wait to hit the open market and take his pick from what would certainly be no shortage of suitors.  Teams will be in a bit better shape cap-wise by that time and even if they’re not, adding a player of his caliber in free agency is worth the risk of going over in the summer and figuring out how to make it work later.

Of the 32 teams in the league at that time, there are only a handful that wouldn’t be a good fit.  The only ones that wouldn’t are teams that have a lot of spending down the middle with one of the top centers in the league (or two higher-priced ones on long-term contracts).

In the West, Calgary comes to mind.  Johnny Gaudreau (UFA), Mark Giordano (UFA), and Matthew Tkachuk (RFA) are among the expiring contracts at that time with Sean Monahan a year away from UFA eligibility.  Barkov would be a big upgrade down the middle and would allow them to potentially flip Monahan for a good return with Mikael Backlund remaining on the second line and Elias Lindholm staying on the wing.  The 2022 offseason figures to be when that roster undergoes that big change and adding an elite center would certainly bolster their future.

As for the East, my initial thought was Philadelphia with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier among the pending UFAs that summer but if those two re-sign, it probably takes them out of the market.  Instead, I’ll say Detroit.  By then, their young core will be more ready to make an impact and while they’ve added some decent young pivots in Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno, they won’t be top-tier centers in the NHL.  A true number one is one of the big holes they still need to fill.  Adding Barkov would certainly accomplish that.

Barkov, a high-end two-way center, is the type of player that would fit in extremely well just about anywhere though so there may not be a true ‘best’ fit but rather a whole lot of great ones.

@bk656: Who do you think is going to win the 2021 World Junior Championships (assuming there are no issues with players testing positive or anything like that)?

Well, that second part didn’t even hold up long enough for me to attempt to comment on it.  The IIHF revealed yesterday that eight players from Germany tested positive which has forced them into quarantine until the day before the tournament begins.  But with due respect to them, that shouldn’t have any sort of significant effect on the outcome of the tournament.

On paper, it’s hard to go against Canada’s roster which is loaded with a whopping 20 first-round picks among their 22 skaters.  That’s unheard of in this tournament.  There are a couple of concerns, however.  A lot of their players haven’t played in a competitive setting at all this season and their goaltending isn’t the strongest on paper.  But if their defense is as good as it is on paper, they shouldn’t be relying on their goalies to win.

I’m intrigued by Russia.  I expect Yaroslav Askarov to be the best goalie in the tournament and they have some firepower up front, led by Rodion Amirov and Vasili Podkolzin.  The fact that their players have been playing for months now might also help give them a boost early on and offset their typical slow start.

Sweden has been hit by positive tests but they still have a very strong back end.  Their attack isn’t as deep as it could have been and that could hurt them while the USA is down a couple of important forwards that they were hoping to have available.  Both of those teams are still good enough to contend even without their full complement of top players but assuming Canada isn’t hurt by being off as long as they have been, I think it’s their tournament to lose.

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The second half of our mailbag is a busy one with topics including coaching candidates around the league, Nashville’s goaltending situation, the slow free agent market, the future of Kyle Dubas in Toronto, Colorado’s salary cap planning, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

@michiganroman: Who are the top-5 ex-NHLer head coaching candidates?

Gerard Gallant certainly has to be at or near the top of the list.  While it’s notable that his stints with Florida and Vegas didn’t last too long, it’s also important to note that those teams did well after he took over.  The purpose of a coaching change is usually to give a jolt to the current roster in the hopes of improving things and he has shown that he can have an early impact.  Given Gallant’s expansion experience with the Golden Knights, he’d certainly make sense for Seattle.

Mike Babcock and Bruce Boudreau could make sense depending on what a team is looking for.  A team looking for some structure and discipline could turn to Babcock while one that is seeking an offensive boost could look at Boudreau.  John Stevens’ stock may be up after the strong season Dallas had as well.

I know the question asks for five but I have two other names I want to highlight.  One is Jim Montgomery, the former coach of the Stars.  His firing was related to an off-ice issue and following a stint in rehab, he’s back in the game as an assistant with St. Louis.  I could see someone giving him a second chance at some point.

The other one is a bit more off the radar in Kevin Dineen.  He’s currently the head coach of AHL San Diego (the second time Anaheim has hired him to run their farm team) while he has head and assistant coaching experience in the NHL as well as some international experience with Canada’s under-18 team and their 2014 women’s Olympic team.  That’s a rather rare combination to have so I’m a little surprised his name doesn’t surface as often for coaching vacancies.

gg24: Will the Rangers be a contender after just this year’s FA and draft acquisitions?

pitmanrich: How do you judge David Quinn’s first two years as Rangers head coach? How much credit does he deserve for the likes of Strome, DeAngelo, Zibanejad and Panarin’s career years and how much is awful defensive play down to him? Rangers are definitely heading in the right direction under Gorton despite little added this offseason but if they miss the playoffs, will coach Quinn be on the hot seat or does he deserve more time?

There’s one way that the Rangers are a contender this season and that’s if Igor Shesterkin plays like he did in a brief stint last year over the full 2020-21 season.  If that happens and the offense holds up (or even improves with Alexis Lafreniere), they could do some damage.  Having said that, I wouldn’t have them in the contender tier just yet.

I also wouldn’t have them in a spot where Quinn is coaching for his job either.  When the team said they were doing a full-scale rebuild, that typically takes longer than three years even though they’ve been able to take some shortcuts along the way by getting Artemi Panarin and lucking out in the lottery to get Lafreniere.  Unless they take a huge step back, Quinn’s job should be safe.

Mika Zibanejad may be the only one where I’d give Quinn a fair bit of credit for ‘unlocking’ his potential.  He was a good second center before but now, he’s one that appears to be a franchise cornerstone.  Panarin helped Ryan Strome to his career numbers and it’s not as if Panarin’s offensive prowess came out of nowhere.  Anthony DeAngelo certainly has emerged since Quinn took over but it also coincides with DeAngelo getting his first real opportunity.  As for their poor defensive showing, their back end isn’t full of high-quality defenders so I think roster composition and not system problems is more to blame there.

acarneglia: How do you project the Metropolitan Division to shake out? Any surprises? Dark horses?

This one is tough to call now as we have no idea who will actually be in the Metropolitan Division or even if there is a Metropolitan Division following the expected re-alignment to accommodate the all-Canadian grouping that is likely to be required.  So instead, here is some general commentary of how things look.

In terms of the regular teams, I could see Carolina pushing for the top spot.  It’s going to be a year of platooning goalies and they’re used to that structure already while the core they have now is better than the one they had for most of last year.  Philadelphia will be up there and if Tristan Jarry can hold up as the full-fledged starter, Pittsburgh should be as well and Washington can’t be counted out.  I could see the Islanders taking a step back but a Barry Trotz-coached team is always going to be in the thick of things.  The Rangers may not quite be at that level yet, Columbus seems vulnerable after their moves, and New Jersey still has a ways to go, even with some stability between the pipes now.

The Duke: Can you please make long- and short-term sense of Nashville’s goaltending? Thanks.

The Predators seem to be in decent shape on both fronts.  Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros are both signed for next season only and will probably platoon regardless of what format the schedule winds up being.  At that point, Saros will be eligible for restricted free agency and arbitration and will likely get the higher payday and take over as the 1A role unless he really struggles next season.  I wouldn’t necessarily call him a starter but they don’t really need him in that role for too long either way.  Rinne can either take a pay cut to stick around or walk.  If it’s the latter, Connor Ingram moves up and if last season wasn’t an aberration, he could push for a decent-sized workload right away.

Long-term, Yaroslav Askarov is their goalie of the future.  He may be three or four years away from moving into that role so GM David Poile’s hope at this time is that one of Saros or Ingram is the other netminder when Askarov is ready to make the jump.

I wouldn’t put Nashville near the top of the league in goaltending for next season but their tandem is good enough to get the job done most nights.  I believe Askarov has the potential to be one of the top goalies down the road so I’d say they’re in good shape in terms of their long-term situation.

DarkSide830: Updated predictions on top remaining FAs?

There are five top-20 players from our top-50 rankings that are still unsigned so I’ll use that as the cutoff point for ‘top’ players.

Mike Hoffman (4) – He’s willing to take a one-year deal although he may not wind up with top dollar when it’s all said and done.  Something around $4.5MM is possible with Nashville looking like a strong fit.  They have the money and the roster spot to fill while he’d be a huge boost to a power play that wasn’t very good a year ago.

Mikael Granlund (9) – I like New Jersey here for him.  The long-term, big-money deal isn’t happening but a two or three-year pact for him to serve as a veteran mentor and bridge to some of their younger talent makes some sense, especially with his positional versatility.  The Devils can afford to pay more than most teams but the AAV should check in somewhere near the $4MM mark.

Travis Hamonic (13) – I’ve liked Winnipeg as his landing spot going back to the start of free agency and I’m not changing that one now.  He takes a PTO to go to camp with them with an agreement in hand to sign a deal closer to $3MM once Bryan Little is placed on LTIR.

Sami Vatanen (14) – If Philadelphia can get Philippe Myers to take a one-year deal, I think Vatanen on a one-year, $2.75MM or so contract makes a lot of sense for both sides.  If they opt for a multi-year deal for Myers, they price themselves out of signing Vatanen at which point he’d have to look elsewhere.  I could see the Kings looking at him on a one-year deal as well with an eye on moving him at the deadline.

Erik Haula (16) – I’m surprised he’s still out there given that there are quite a few teams that could use help down the middle.  Returning to Florida may make the most sense for him – their depth chart at center isn’t great and they’ve lost some offense in free agency.  A one-year deal around $2MM or so would sting in the short-term but he’d have a chance to boost his offensive numbers and try again next summer with a better platform year to work off of.

lapcheung39: The Chicago Blackhawks spend only under $2MM on both their goalies. Do you think they will add a veteran like Anderson, Howard?

If there was a veteran goaltender out there that could really make a difference, I’d say that Chicago should go and get that goalie.  Craig Anderson and Jimmy Howard aren’t difference-makers at this stage of their respective careers though.  They’re fringe backups and the Blackhawks already have that with Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia who are the early contenders to serve as their goalie tandem next season.

Kevin Lankinen’s name isn’t getting enough attention though.  I may be swayed a bit too much by his performance at the 2019 World Championships but he’s a goalie that can win his team some games on his own which is something that can’t be said for the other two.  While some have him being the odd man out, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he winds up as Chicago’s starter when all is said and done.  Justified or not (and I’m inclined to call it the latter), this is the route that GM Stan Bowman opted to take with his goaltenders.  With what’s left, they may as well see it through with what they have.

jimmertee: How long does Kyle Dubas keep his job?

I think his leash is still pretty long.  The direction that this team has gone isn’t just solely his vision and it seems pretty evident that team president Brendan Shanahan is fully onboard with it.  They’ve fully committed to going the way they have with so much of their cap space tied up in four forwards so unless things really go completely off the rails next season, I don’t sense his job is in any jeopardy.

I also don’t expect things to go off the rails.  I like the addition of T.J. Brodie into their top four defensively and while they’ve certainly gotten older and slower up front, guys like Wayne Simmonds, Joe Thornton, and Jason Spezza don’t have to do much to provide value on their deals.  Considering the minimal cap room they had to work with, Toronto has assembled a relatively good bottom-six group.  If it winds up being an all-Canadian division as it appears it’s going to be, they’re going to be right in the mix.

At some point, yes, the core is going to have to show they can get the job done in the playoffs but I think that breaking point is still a couple of years away.  At that point, Dubas will have had to re-sign or replace Frederik Andersen and Morgan Rielly and that will have a big impact on the roster composition at that time.  If they’re still not over the hump by then, then it may be time to wonder about his future but that’s not on the immediate horizon.

Dtownwarrior78: At the pace they are going now, how long do you see it taking for the Red Wings to truly become potential Cup challengers again? Anytime within the next 3 years or longer? At least competitive for a playoff spot?

It wouldn’t shock me if they’re three years away from a playoff spot, let alone Cup contention.  While lottery luck hasn’t landed them a top pick, there’s a decent core emerging with Lucas Raymond, Filip Zadina, Moritz Seider, and even Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno.  None of them is a franchise player but that’s the making of a solid group, especially with Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha in the fold as well.

My concern is their defense and goaltending, however.  Seider should be good and Filip Hronek is quite underrated.  But after that, there are a lot of question marks.  Between the pipes, there’s no starter of the future in the system.  That’s at least a piece that can be signed in free agency but if they’re envisioning Thomas Greiss as their starter while he’s under contract, they’re not going to be a significant postseason threat.  Until they add another core defender and a proven number one goalie, they’re not going to be in contention, even as their young group of forwards develops and improves.

M34: Avs defense. After the sure-fire big-time contract that Makar is going to get, and with Byram and Timmins expected to take big steps forward this season or next, then adding in the flat or potentially decreasing cap situation, how does Sakic make this work, both on the books and on the ice?

Let’s tackle the second part first.  Conor Timmins could very well start in the minors if Ian Cole shifts over to his off side which isn’t going to help his contract demands.  Bowen Byram is also good enough to start in the NHL but playing time on the left side behind Samuel Girard, Devon Toews, and Ryan Graves is going to be hard to come by.  So in the short-term, the on-ice solution is simply to send them down – Timmins to the Eagles and Byram back to junior.  Eventually, they’ll have to trade someone out (even with Cole’s deal expiring next offseason) but that’s something to ponder next offseason at the earliest.

Timmins is a restricted free agent next offseason like Cale Makar and is probably looking at a one-year deal near the qualifying offer amount or a two-year contract just over $1MM.  That’s not hard to fit in either way.  Byram is three years away from his next contract (four if his deal slides next season) and by then, Erik Johnson and his $6MM will be coming off the books although a big chunk of his money is heading for Nathan MacKinnon.

The biggest question in the short-term is can they afford to re-sign Makar and still have enough to keep Gabriel Landeskog around plus have room to pay a starting goalie?  (Brandon Saad may want to stay there long term but that doesn’t appear palatable unless the captain leaves.)   That will take some careful financial planning but in terms of their other young defenders, Colorado is in good shape for eventually bringing them into the fold and fitting them in under their cap structure.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Philadelphia’s back end, what’s next for New Jersey, Mike Hoffman’s market, the Blue Jackets and LTIR, Washington’s goaltending situation, schedule and playoff discussion (including the oft-speculated all-Canadian division), and how Vegas can navigate through their cap issues.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

ripaceventura30: Did the Flyers do enough to replace the surprisingly retired Niskanen? Myers, Provorov, and Hagg really impressed last year, but are those guys plus Gostisbehere, Braun, Gustafsson, and Sanheim enough of a top-7 to keep this team in Cup contention?

I suspect they’ve done all they’re going to do about Matt Niskanen’s retirement.  I like Erik Gustafsson although his fit on this particular roster is a bit of a headscratcher, especially with Shayne Gostisbehere’s tough season.  Adding a player with a similar profile as Gostisbehere wasn’t something I was expecting but he’ll help.

What will help more is the continued development of youngsters Philippe Myers, Travis Sanheim, and Robert Hagg.  Myers, in particular, has shown signs of being ready for a larger role and he’ll get that opportunity.  Philadelphia’s back end is set up to be more of a by-committee group (with the exception of Ivan Provorov) so despite losing Niskanen and his nearly 22 minutes a game, I think they’ll be okay without him.

Is what they’ve done enough?  I’d have liked to see more of an impact veteran behind Myers than the re-signing of Justin Braun but in terms of preserving flexibility in this particular cap environment, Chuck Fletcher has navigated this reasonably well.  They still have the ability to try to lock Myers up long term and if that doesn’t happen, they may be able to add to their roster either in free agency or by an in-season move.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Do you see the Devils making any other moves this offseason? Perhaps offer sheeting someone as has been rumored?

I think they should have another move or two left in them.  Cap space isn’t an issue (though budgetary restrictions could very well be in play) but they’re a team that could appeal to some free agents looking for a soft landing with the hopes of having more success on the open market a year from now.  There are definitely openings on the wing and there are some good options available at those spots.

As for the offer sheet, my inclination is no.  Yes, prospective GMs were reportedly asked if they’d be willing to go that route so it’s certainly on the radar but there’s a reason they rarely occur.  Players actually have to sign the agreement and that in itself usually puts an end to any talks quickly as they often don’t want to do so.  From there, doing one only makes sense if the amount is low enough for the signing team to justify the cost but high enough to deter the other team from matching.  That’s what hurt Montreal’s offer sheet for Sebastian Aho last summer as it wasn’t high enough to scare Carolina off.

There are definitely vulnerable teams but about the only one I could see getting hit is Tampa Bay if they’re not able to clear out money.  And with all due respect to New Jersey, I just don’t see one of their young players wanting to leave a Cup-winning team for one that’s still in a rebuild.  I do believe the Devils have another move (a free agent signing or a trade to take on a bad contract) to make but it won’t be an offer sheet.

DVail1979: I know the back story for the most part but just how toxic is Mike Hoffman considered? If it isn’t his off the ice issues why else wouldn’t Hoffman be signed already? He is a high-end scorer that could help out most teams. Is he just unwilling to take the Taylor Hall one-year route? Where (if anywhere) do you see him ending up and what kind of contract?

I don’t think that particular incident from his time in Ottawa is really playing much of a factor with Hoffman’s situation.  There has been plenty of interest and he has indicated a willingness to do like Hall and sign for a year.  But if he’s doing that, he’s not taking a bargain price and it needs to be a situation where he’s well-positioned for a good year statistically.

Right now, the market has slowed to a crawl and about the only deals that are getting signed are bargains.  That should change as the schedule information is released as the start of training camp will act as a soft deadline for free agents.  Eventually, trade activity will increase as well which could open up other options.

As for a prediction of what he signs for, I’m going to say a one-year deal in the $4.5MM to $5MM range.  That’s still a small drop from what he made a year ago but that’s second line money and a team would find some value at that price point.  Two teams come up as good fits for me – Nashville if he wants to go to a team with an eye on contending for a playoff spot and New Jersey if he’s looking for a pillow deal at top dollar.  He’d slide in as a top-six winger on either team and would get lots of power play opportunities to try to pad his stats in the hopes of having better luck on the open market a year from now.

Baji Kimran: Why are the Blue Jackets waiting to place Brandon Dubinsky on LTIR? You’d think they’d want to free up the cap space. Is there some sort of advantage to waiting?

Let’s do a quick refresher on the rules before jumping into this one.  In a nutshell, placing a player on LTIR allows a team to spend up to that AAV over the Upper Limit, minus already-existing cap room.  That’s why teams often recall players to get as tight to the cap as possible before putting a player on LTIR to maximize how much they’re actually eligible for.  It’s also why teams like Ottawa and other low-spenders never need to use it even though they have players that can be placed on it.

Now let’s look at the Blue Jackets.  With Pierre-Luc Dubois unsigned, they have a little over $9MM in cap room, per CapFriendly.  If they placed Dubinsky on LTIR now (and offseason LTIR does exist, though rarely used), they wouldn’t actually gain any cap space as their current cap room is greater than Dubinsky’s $5.85MM AAV.

For Columbus to best utilize it, they first have to get Dubois signed.  Assuming it’s a long-term deal that eats up the majority of that cap room, then they can pad their 23-player roster to make it as expensive as possible to get as close to $81.5MM as they can.  Then they can put Dubinsky (along with Gustav Nyquist who is out for several months) on LTIR and send down the extra players that were used to artificially inflate their spending to maximize their cap room.  That’s the advantage of waiting.

Having said that, there’s definitely a scenario where it’s not used at all.  If Dubois only signs a bridge deal that leaves them with a few million in cap room, they won’t need to use LTIR as they’ll still be comfortably under.  They have the option to put Dubinsky on LTIR but they have to need to be in that position first and we’re six weeks or so away from that happening at a minimum.

2012Orioles: Am I not worried enough about Ilya Samsonov being the starting goalie now with Holtby leaving in free agency? He played well last year but will he be able to transfer that performance to more games?

It’s definitely a bit concerning, especially with Samsonov not being able to play in the playoffs.  It’s risky handing the reins to an unproven goaltender and for all of the hype that he has, he has just 26 games of NHL experience.  Unfortunately, their cap situation made signing a top veteran (or re-signing Braden Holtby) a non-starter so it’s a risk they have to take.

I think GM Brian MacLellan did well to mitigate that risk with the addition of Henrik Lundqvist.  Yes, he’s on the downside of his career but he was a starter until the back half of last season.  At the very least, the 38-year-old can handle a platoon workload but if Samsonov falters, Lundqvist could conceivably hold his own playing a bit more than that.  Given the limited money they had available, that’s a pretty good backup plan.

It’s worth noting that Samsonov’s playing time back home was even limited so there’s definitely a question mark on his ability to handle a number one workload.  But with 2020-21 shaping up to be a shortened season and Lundqvist in the fold, it’s not a situation where he’ll be asked to make 50 or more starts so the risk is at least somewhat limited.  If he can get close to 40 starts, I think that’s a workload he can handle without it hurting his performance while being a step up from what he’s used to getting.  I suspect the Capitals would happily take that from Samsonov next year.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include PTO candidates, St. Louis’ now-vacated captaincy, the state of the back end for the Rangers, Zdeno Chara’s future, and the recently-completed 2020 NHL Entry Draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last week’s mailbag.

lapcheung39: Which player will most likely get a contract or PTO from teams that are dealing with a depleted roster?

There are going to be a lot of teams looking for players on PTO agreements between now and training camp.  Some teams will be looking to try to fill the last roster spot or two while others may have interest in bringing some in for a potential taxi squad in case the NHL does like MLB did this past season in an effort to try to reduce the amount of shuffling with the farm teams.  On the flip side, many players will be looking for one of those in a last-ditch effort to try to catch on somewhere, especially with opportunities overseas largely dried up at the moment.  It’s hard to single out a particular player who might get one as there will undoubtedly be dozens handed out but here are a few that could be in that situation among players that suited up at in least 50 NHL games last season.

Madison Bowey – Detroit opted to non-tender him this offseason to avoid the arbitration process and the fact he hasn’t signed elsewhere yet is notable.  Bowey’s only 25 and is a right-shot option while his price tag should be low.  Given the dearth of righties with experience out there, it’s reasonable to think he should have signed already.  Since he hasn’t, it seems like teams will be waiting to see if he’ll accept a tryout first instead of committing guaranteed money now.

Michael Frolik – The winger had a really tough year with both Calgary and Buffalo (especially when compared to his then-$4.3MM price tag) but he’s only one season removed from a 34-point campaign.  There has been overseas interest but by all accounts, Frolik wants to take another run at an NHL spot and if he’s willing to take a lesser role, there should be some takers.

Tim Schaller – Another one that was overpaid on his last deal, Schaller has quietly spent most of the past four years in the NHL (241 games played in that span), mostly in a fourth line role.  If he wants to hang around and fight for a 12th or 13th forward spot on a roster, he will quite likely have to do it via the PTO route as it’s hard to see him getting a guaranteed contract with quite a few players still unsigned.

Again, the PTO market is very likely going to be busier than normal and with the state of the market being what it is at the moment, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a notable player or two be forced to go that route.

vincent k. mcmahon: With Alex Pietrangelo now gone, who will be the new Blues captain? I think Ryan O’Reilly should be at the top of the pecking order.

That seems like the logical choice.  Alex Steen was the other alternate captain and he’s unlikely to have much of a role next season and almost certainly won’t be brought back as a free agent after that so there’s no point in going that route.  The injury factor would take Vladimir Tarasenko out of the equation as well even though he’s been there for a while.

Naming a captain isn’t something a team wants to do every couple of years so you either name a budding star that you’re building around or a veteran that’s signed for a while.  They don’t really have anyone in the first category and among the veterans, it’s hard to see them handing it to one of Pietrangelo’s replacements in Justin Faulk or Torey Krug.  Up front, there are only three veterans signed for three years (or more) in O’Reilly, Brayden Schenn, and Oskar Sundqvist.  It’s safe to rule Sundqvist out so that leaves Schenn who is signed for six more years instead of just three for O’Reilly.

Considering O’Reilly already wears the ‘A’, he’s the front-runner for the spot.  Beyond him, Schenn is the only other one that seems somewhat likely to get that role (if they opt to name a new captain at all).

acarneglia: What’s next for the Rangers rebuild?

@Sully_from: How do you see the Rangers D playing out, Trouba, Fox, DeAngelo, Ryan Lindgren, Libor Hajek, K’Andre Miller, and Nils Lundkvist are eight players for six spots not to mention Brendan Smith. Who gets traded, position changed?

Getting a long-term second center would be ideal but it’s probably not going to be Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil isn’t ready for that role yet.  I’d like to see him get eased into that role a bit next year to help try to see if he can fill that hole in the future so that’s one thing I think they could do next season.

The other hole of note is on the left side of their back end.  As the second question notes, the strength of New York’s defense both in terms of quality and quantity is right-shot defenders.  It’s great to have that much depth on that side (especially given the fact it’s the harder of the two sides to get quality depth for) but at some point, that needs to be spun off to fill a weakness.  If it’s not a new 2C, flipping an impact righty for an impact left on the blueline is a logical next step to take for GM Jeff Gorton.

As for the current state of their back end, I don’t think much of anything is going to happen unless the RD for LD trade comes up.  Lundkvist is signed with SHL Lulea for the entire season and while that presents the opportunity for him to join New York midseason potentially given the later start to the NHL season, that won’t affect anything now.  Miller will likely need some time with AHL Hartford as well.  They’ve hedged their bets with adding veterans Jack Johnson and Anthony Bitetto who will likely serve as placeholders for the youngsters (which could include Hajek if he needs more time).  Having Smith as someone that can play on the third pairing or the wing will be handy and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him shift between the two roles again.  Lindgren will get a bigger role next season and Johnson may have to play more than a nominal role until one of Miller or Hajek is ready to push him down a pairing.

bigalval: Chara signs with the Kings on a one-year deal and a coaching job when he retires?

I have to admit, when I thought of possible non-Boston landing spots for Chara, Los Angeles was not on my radar but the idea does make some sense.  There are definitely openings on their back end and having him around to work with some of their youngsters like Michael Anderson and Tobias Bjornfot would certainly be beneficial.  As those two improve, then Chara could be slid down into a lesser role which is probably more ideal for him at this stage of his career.

The question I have is that if he decides to leave Boston (and I’m only saying if to that one as it’s quite possible he stays in the end), does he really want to go to a rebuilding team that doesn’t seem to have an eye on making the playoffs next season?  Or would he rather go to a contender, even if it means more of a restricted role?

If this was to happen, I wonder if Chara would go in to the deal knowing that he’d be likely to be traded closer to the trade deadline where he could give the Kings a shortlist of teams he’d be willing to go to.  (If there is enough interest in him, some sort of no-trade clause would seemingly be likely.)  If that’s something either side isn’t open to doing, then it’d be difficult to see a path for Chara to play there next season.

backhandinbaptist: Is there a reason Noel Gunler fell out of the first round? Fantasy-wise Dobber has him in top 10, and central scouting has him as #9 among EU skaters, but Dobber did mention there were perceived (but mainly false according to them) attitude issues. Any reasons he won’t turn into a top-level offensive talent as many scouts have him pegged as?

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Who were the biggest steals in the draft? Yes, I know we won’t be able to adequately judge for years but come on it’s October and there is no hockey!

There are some prospects where scouts are split on the overall upside and Gunler fits into that category.  Rankings were all over the board with him (his CSB rating when coupled with the others put him in a late 1st/early 2nd range) and while there is some offensive upside (I wouldn’t go as far as calling it top-level though), the rest of his game (defense, skating, and shift-to-shift consistency) seems to be questioned.  Not having a chance to play in the World Juniors may have raised a few eyebrows as well and presented one of those ‘what do they know that we don’t’ type of situations that can send a player dropping.  Having said that, getting him at 41 was a great pick in my books and Carolina getting him and Seth Jarvis with their top two selections was a fantastic start to their draft.

As for steals, Hendrix Lapierre at 22 qualifies if he can stay healthy.  It’s a big if considering everything he went through last year but he went in looking like a top-ten talent.  Assuming he does stay healthy, that should be a good value selection for Washington and with their top centers locked up for a while, they can afford to bring him along slowly.

A little further down is Florida’s selection of Ty Smilanic at 74.  He’s another player that was limited by injuries but profiled to be a higher pick than that heading into the season.  He needs a fair bit of development still and going the college route will afford him the longer opportunity to do so.  If he can get back to that better level, he could be a middle-six forward which would be a nice pickup near the middle of the third round.

I’d also throw Martin Chromiak at 128 to the Kings in there.  There is a lot of uncertainly with him having only played half a year in the OHL having played in the Extraliga before that.  That wasn’t a great developmental environment for him and likely caused part of his drop but he’s someone that I thought was going to be off the board well before that spot.  In the fifth round, it’s not even a gamble at that point but there is certainly some upside.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Buffalo defensemen, Don Sweeney’s tenure in Boston, the new voice of NBC hockey, the relative inactivity in Columbus after freeing up cap room, Mike Hoffman’s fit with a rebuilding team, and Nashville’s need for forward help.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

LarryJ4: What is the holdup for Buffalo moving Ristolainen or Miller? Gotta think this is what is delaying a move for a more capable goalie (Varlamov, Korpisalo, Kuemper) to pair up with Ullmark.

I have to admit, I don’t see a goalie move for them coming this offseason.  There’s definitely a need to upgrade on the Linus Ullmark–Carter Hutton tandem but I believe they still think that Ullmark has some untapped upside yet.  The challenge is that Hutton and his $2.75MM cap hit need to go in any trade.  If Arizona wanted to move Darcy Kuemper, part of the impetus for doing so would be considerable cap savings.  They can’t get that by taking Hutton back.  That takes a trade with Columbus out of the equation as well and it’s doubtful that the Islanders would move Semyon Varlamov until they see if Ilya Sorokin is indeed ready to be a starter in the NHL.  He hasn’t played a second in this league yet though so the time isn’t right to trade him.

Let’s look at the defensemen now, beginning with Miller.  His name has been in trade speculation dating back to last year when it was clear he wasn’t a great fit with Buffalo.  They didn’t find a taker then when teams believed they had more flexibility than they do now.  Perhaps there’s a lateral swap for another defenseman but I’d put better odds on him finding his bearings in his season year with the Sabres than landing a considerable upgrade.  At the very least, a third-pairing defenseman isn’t going to be a centerpiece of a trade for a starting goalie.

Ristolainen’s a bit more interesting in that he is such a polarizing player.  He has unquestionable offensive skill but while his play in his own end was better last year under Ralph Krueger, it still wasn’t great.  I suspect they believe he’ll improve in his second season with Krueger behind the bench so I don’t think they want to move him even though there may be some teams that look at Ristolainen and think they can ‘fix’ his defensive issues.  But again, that would be more of a lateral swap than a move for a goalie.

Long story short, I expect Buffalo to give Ullmark a bigger portion of the workload next season and decide if he’s part of their long-term plans or if they have to change things up for 2021-22 where they may want to try their hand at the free agent market to fill that spot.

FireDonny: How is it possible for a GM to strike out on SO many high first-round picks, late 1st reaches (unskilled Trent Frederic) and not be fired? Not to mention his genius plan to sign bottom roster filler at the start of free agency while others sign stars. I’m sick of Dommy Moore’s, McKegg’s, the ghost of Kevan Miller, etc. Smith signing not enough.

Do you think Sweeney needs to make a real move to save his job? Or did Jacobs taking a bath on some property handcuff him? They can all go but Don can’t draft or trade.

VonBrewski: Is Don Sweeney the worst GM in Hockey? They supposedly have a lot more cap space than most teams. Neely says after they are eliminated that they need to get tougher and they need more scoring. They were ready to change the roster to compete for a cup.

Free agency comes and (sorry Smith, I like you as a player) *POOF* no one traded, re-signing most players, Krug gone (knew it and was ok with it) But where is the change? Where is the infusion? I have been a Bruins fan since the ’70s and I swear we are back to the Harry Sinden/Mike O’Connell days….suck, suck, suck!!!

It hasn’t been a particularly fun offseason for Boston, to say the least.  I like the addition of Craig Smith – he’s a capable middle-six forward and $3.1MM is a nice price tag.  But it goes downhill after that with nothing being done to replace Torey Krug on the left side of their back end while Zdeno Chara is unsigned as well (though he could return).  And then there are the questions regarding the availability of Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak to start next season after their recent surgeries.  I think they have a move of note left in them (not a huge splash but an impact player being added) and they’ll need to go short-term with Jake DeBrusk to make that happen and stay cap-compliant.  They’ll be near the Upper Limit when all is said and done.

I haven’t been a big fan of their draft strategy either going back to their three straight first-round picks in 2015.  DeBrusk is a decent player but they needed to hit on two of those at least.  And to be fair, they’ve only had one first-round pick in the last three years while being short on picks in general which has contributed to a weakening farm system.  I can’t lay all of that on Sweeney as while general managers select the scouting staff, it’s usually the scouts that call the shots on the draft picks or at least have heavy influence.  And avoiding the CHL altogether in four of their last five drafts is a bit of a strange strategy although it does afford more time to get a better feel for who to sign and who to let go.

I wouldn’t call Sweeney the worst GM in hockey but I do think it’s fair to suggest that he should be feeling a little pressure.  The cap levelling out sealed their fate with Krug but this is a core that’s built to win now.  Once their window closes and the focus shifts to the next group of players to build around, is Sweeney the one to be calling the shots on that?  He’ll need some better success in player development over the next couple of years to help make his case.  In the meantime, he needs to find a notable player to add to their roster and I think he’ll accomplish that.

PensJacksCanes: The biggest free agent who is the best at his position is still unsigned. With Mike Emrick retiring will UFA John Forslund become the voice of the NHL?

First off, a tip of the hat to Emrick who had an outstanding career and as a writer, I appreciate how he incorporated so many different synonyms into his calls.  I know his phraseology for calling routine plays with some variety wasn’t for everyone but between that, his overall game-calling skills, and his energy, he was one of a kind and his shoes will be tough to fill.

My first thought upon hearing the news was that Forslund makes sense.  He already had a notable role on national broadcasts and he’s no longer the voice of the Hurricanes which still feels odd typing.  He’s a contender if nothing else although it wouldn’t shock me either if there wasn’t an immediate full-time replacement.  They have a good stable of broadcasters to draw from and it’s possible that they just go with those without naming a successor.

Maybe it’s just me trying to think outside of the box but I don’t think it’s just NBC that will have a say in this.  The national TV deal in the United States is up soon and there will be more contenders for those rights than in past negotiations given the value of live sports content.  If the NHL has a certain preference for someone in the number one spot, I could see NBC going with whoever that is in the hopes of currying favor in talks for those national TV rights.

Baji Kimran: I’m a Blue Jackets fan and I can’t see them acquiring Patrik Laine. They are in a position where they must take care of Pierre-Luc Dubois first and signing him may take a while. They must make sure that if any club extends Dubois an offer sheet that they are in a position to match it. Save for maybe signing Mikael Granlund if he’s still available, I think they’re done for the time being. I think once the Jackets are in a position to address Laine, he will be long gone. Does my assessment seem reasonable to you?

I think you’re on the right track.  I know that GM Jarmo Kekalainen has suggested that part of the impetus for clearing up cap room with their recent moves was to hedge against an offer sheet for Dubois but I think that threat has come and gone.  How many teams have enough cap space left to make a real push?  Of those, how many have the budget to do so?  Do they have their own picks and a deep enough prospect pool to justify going that route?  There was a time where the possibility of an offer sheet for Dubois was plausible but I think that time has passed.  If anyone is eyeing one now, the focus should be squarely on Tampa Bay.

Depending on what Vladislav Gavrikov gets as he’s also unsigned, I agree that they’re basically done other than maybe one more cheap depth upgrade.  By the time Dubois and Gavrikov are signed, most of the $12.9MM in projected cap space they’ll have left (per CapFriendly) will be gone.  Accordingly, I’m not sure they’ll have the space to bring Granlund in without moving someone else out first which is something that’s a lot easier said than done in this marketplace.

Laine with the Blue Jackets would be interesting.  He’d certainly give them a boost offensively but he and John Tortorella could be a risky match.  However, I don’t think Laine is fit for them from a financial perspective.  I expect Kekalainen to try to set Dubois’ deal as the ceiling for Columbus forwards.  Laine, a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next summer, is almost certainly going to come in higher than what Dubois will get.  It’s hard to make that case to Dubois with Laine in the fold and if they were to acquire him after getting that contract done, it’d be a bit of an insult to their top center.  Having said all that, I’m still not certain that Laine winds up moving; I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s still with Winnipeg next season.

tigers22: Would the Red Wings be better off giving Mike Hoffman a one-year, $6MM deal and see what they can get at the deadline rather than trading for Tyler Johnson and a pick?

It’d be much better from Detroit’s perspective.  They’d get a better half-season contribution from Hoffman than they would from Johnson and if they were willing to retain on the deal at the deadline, getting him at $3MM would be very appealing, especially when a lot of contenders will have minimal cap space.  They could land a pretty good return in that scenario.

The question, for me, is if Hoffman would be willing to sign somewhere where he knows he’s going to be dealt a few months later.  He’s certainly willing to take a one-year contract but I think his preference would be to sign with a team that will keep him around all year.  Hoffman would certainly get a chance to put up some good numbers in a big role with the Red Wings which might help his case a year from now but a sign and eventual trade scenario is probably not one he wants to take unless talks with other teams stall out.

Johnson’s a nice player but with Tampa Bay needing a team to assume the four years remaining on his deal with a $5MM AAV in full, it would require quite the inducement to do so.  Give me the better player on a short-term deal anytime in that scenario.

@bwiz77: The Preds need a proven top-six winger to play with Duchene. Do you think that is coming via a UFA signing or trade?

I agree that there’s a need but unless it’s Hoffman, I’m not convinced that there’s an upgrade move coming.  The other free agent forward options aren’t exactly proven other than Granlund who has been ruled out of returning already.  GM David Poile has said that he wants to give his prospects a chance and I think their best-case scenario is that Eeli Tolvanen eventually steps into that role, even if there are some growing pains along the way.

Assuming Nashville is able and willing to use their full remaining cap space, the trade market may be the better way to go.  While teams looking to shed money would prefer not to move impact players to do so, that could change as we get closer to the start of next season, whenever that winds up being.  Deadlines force activity and GMs often want to wait until the last minute before pulling the trigger.

If the Predators can land Hoffman, that would fill the void, albeit for the short term since it doesn’t sound like a lucrative long-term deal is on the horizon for him.  But if he goes elsewhere, patience may be key here in terms of either waiting out the trade market or hoping that a prospect steps up during the season and fills that spot from within.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The frenzy of free agency has slowed considerably in the last several days as teams try to figure out how all the pieces fit together. Alex Pietrangelo is headed to the strip, while Torey Krug takes his place in St. Louis. There are still several difference-makers available on the open market, but who knows when they’ll actually decide on a place to play next season. Months remain before training camps even open, with no expectation of games before the end of the year.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.

If you missed our last one before the offseason began, it was split into two parts you can read here and here. In the first, Brian gave some predictions for some of the Western Conference contenders, while also giving his thoughts on the state of officiating in the NHL. In the second, he correctly predicted that Nikita Zadorov would be elsewhere when the 2020-21 season began, before discussing the future of the NHL and the potential of having a full season with no fans in the buildings.

Topics in this edition of PHR Mailbag include Nikita Zadorov’s future in Colorado, Taylor Hall’s next deal, a struggling Panthers back end, the defensive situation for the Rangers, Detroit’s rebuild, and the uncertainty of next season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

M34: What’s the future look like for Nikita Zadorov?

This feels like it’s an almost annual question as Zadorov has seemingly been on thin ice in Colorado for a while.  Yet, each time, he winds up staying with the Avs in the same role that he has basically had since he got there – splitting time between a fourth and fifth defensive spot.  This time, it at least feels a bit different.

For starters, Ryan Graves has established himself as a good partner with Cale Makar.  Ian Cole is still signed and Bowen Byram is likely to push for a full-time spot as well.  Those are three left-shot blueliners like Zadorov.  Graves and Cole are clearly ahead of Zadorov on the depth chart and while Byram could start in the minors which would keep Zadorov’s spot on the third pairing open, they probably won’t want to be in a situation where Zadorov winds up starting as the seventh defender either.

The 25-year-old is owed a $3.2MM qualifying offer which is a bit pricey for someone in his role and in this marketplace.  But at the same time, it’s one that they can afford to tender for this season as they have plenty of short-term cap room so I think that option is unlikely.  They’re not in a spot where they have to trade Zadorov but if Byram beats him out for a spot in the lineup in training camp, it’ll be a lot harder to move him then than it is now.  And one year from now with Makar and Gabriel Landeskog needing new deals, Zadorov will become a luxury that they can’t afford.  Accordingly, between that and a relatively soft UFA crop of left-shot defenders, the time is right for Colorado to try to move him out and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him somewhere else when the puck drops on 2020-21.

aloop: It’s highly doubtful that Hall winds up in Arizona, with the internal cap + the Yotes current cap issues. Do you think Hall takes a lower one year salary to join a contender in hopes of a deep playoff run and winning a cup? Or does he sign a longer contract with a team on the rise in hopes that they can make the playoffs consistently and win the Cup during the duration of his contract?

A top free agent (and Hall is the top forward available) rarely signs a short-term contract so I’d put the odds on that happening as fairly low.  But there certainly is a case to be made that Hall could go that route, especially with his comments about how a winning environment will be quite important to him.  If it was to happen though, I could see him signing with a team like Colorado with a higher AAV than he’d get on a long-term deal as there has to be some sort of trade-off for foregoing the job security that a long-term contract would provide.

It’s worth noting that Hall’s value has taken a hit lately as well.  He’s only two years removed from his Hart Trophy in 2017-18 but those two seasons have been underwhelming and the change of scenery from New Jersey to Arizona didn’t exactly give him a boost either.

Let’s say he does the one-year deal with a contender and he winds up in the 50-60 point range again.  Now, Hall enters the 2021 market heading into his age-30 year with three straight seasons of fringe front line production.  The salary cap will still probably be $81.5MM and more teams will be in cap trouble than there are now.  The earnings potential in that situation will be quite a bit lower than it is now so there would certainly be some risk by going that route.  On the other hand, a stronger season with a contender could restore some value so there is a potential benefit to that approach as well.

In the end, it’s hard to pass up the type of security that a long-term deal can provide.  Hall can probably get a max-term deal next month at a rate that’s still a lot higher than the $6MM he had as a cap hit for the past seven years, even in this marketplace.  Maybe he takes a bit less than top dollar to land in a more competitive environment but that’s about the only ‘cut’ he’ll take in free agency.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: What is up with Florida’s defense; on paper it seems like they should be at least average. Is this a problem where each individual part does not fit well together or are there more factors at play?

I’ve wondered that myself for a while now and look no further than the recently-traded Mike Matheson.  At one point, he looked like a long-term fixture on their second pairing but he wound up being used on the wing at times this season and was even healthy scratched to the point where they had to trade him in a swap of cap dumps.

It’s hardly just him either.  Aaron Ekblad is a solid blueliner but hasn’t ascended to that true number one defenseman role that his draft status (first overall in 2014) suggested he’d become.  He’s a top-pairing player but in an ideal situation, he’s more of a number two than a number one.  Keith Yandle remains strong offensively but his play in his own end has always been shaky while Anton Stralman made some sense as someone that could try to stabilize things but that didn’t exactly happen.  The parts are there but it feels like adding one good complementary player could make a huge difference.

Of course, they’re hardly the only team that would want to do something like that this offseason and amidst rumors that the team is trying to cut payroll, acquiring that particular piece could be tricky for new GM Bill Zito.  But if the Panthers want to get out of the middle zone where they’re not good enough yet to contend, they’re going to need to find a way to get that done.

pitmanrich: How do you see Jacques Martin doing as an assistant coach for the defense on the Rangers? Lindy Ruff got a lot of stick but most of their talented d-men are young offensive players plus Staal and Smith’s best days are long gone.  Do they need to sign a veteran stay at home d-man to help suppress the number of shots they give up which surely played a part in Lundqvist’s dramatic loss of form over the last 18 months?

When it comes to assistant coaches, I don’t think they move the needle all that much unless there’s a drastic system change that accompanies it.  Ruff’s departure came from him leaving to take the New Jersey job and not as an overhaul of New York’s coaching staff.  David Quinn is still calling the shots so their system probably isn’t going to change enough for Martin to have any significant effect on them one way or the other.

Are the Rangers ready to push themselves back into legitimate playoff contention now?  That’s the question that needs to be answered to answer the second part of your query.  If they think their time is now, the answer is yes, they should be looking to add a veteran that can shore up their top four.  Staal is better in a limited role and Smith is a possible buyout candidate to free up a bit of cap space this offseason.  Getting someone capable of logging 20 or more minutes a night on the left side would be a huge boost to their playoff chances.

But if the answer is no and they think they’re still a year away with top youngsters Igor Shesterkin, Kaapo Kakko, and Alexis Lafreniere (it’s pretty safe to slot him in here even though he won’t be a Ranger for another week and a half) needing some more development before contention, then I wouldn’t add a veteran defender.  Use next season to get a better read on Ryan Lindgren’s upside as well as K’Andre Miller, Yegor Rekov, and Libor Hajek.  Over the long haul, they’d be better off for it.

CoachWall: Do the Rangers trade high on Anthony DeAngelo? He will cost some big bucks and is blocking younger players. They have so much young talent on defense, they could turn him into a number two center.

Last offseason, the Rangers held all the cards with DeAngelo and basically forced him into taking just above his qualifying offer.  A 53-point season was quite a response and with salary arbitration eligibility now, he has put himself in a great situation to land a pricey contract that New York may have difficulty fitting into their current salary structure.  Trading high would make some sense but I’m not sure the market for him is going to be all that strong.

Was his season a sign of things to come or a situation where everything broke his way and his production will dip closer to his 30-point year in 2018-19?  That may give some teams some pause.  He’s also someone that two other teams had already given up on him (Tampa Bay and Arizona) which will have some teams wondering what happened.  That’s not to say that a deal won’t happen and there will be some interest but his market might be as robust as it might seem.  At the very least, DeAngelo’s fate will probably have to be decided after Minnesota makes as a decision on Mathew Dumba.  With the longer track record and his ability to play a bit higher in the lineup than DeAngelo, he will be the prime target for teams looking to upgrade the right side of their defense.

I’m also not certain that he’s blocking anyone at the moment.  While the Rangers have Miller, Rekov, and Hajek that could make a push for playing time next season, they’re all left-shot defenders so DeAngelo’s presence shouldn’t necessarily affect them too much.  Yes, Nils Lundkvist is in the system as well but he’s staying there for the upcoming season.  Once he signs, then DeAngelo may be blocking him (with Jacob Trouba and Adam Fox being the other righties) but we’re at least a year away from that happening.

There isn’t a pressing need to move DeAngelo but if they can use him to fill their second center spot, it would probably be a deal worth making for GM Jeff Gorton.

tigers22: Would a trade of Montreal’s #1 draft pick to Detroit for Anthony Mantha work for both teams? Give Montreal another scorer and Detroit another draft pick for the rebuild.

I like the deal from Montreal’s perspective but I don’t see a great case from Detroit’s point of view unless Mantha’s asking price is way too high.  The Canadiens briefly held the ninth-overall pick but that’s no longer the case.  Instead, they’re picking 16th having upset Pittsburgh in the Qualifying Round.

Mantha’s free agent case is a bit of a tricky one considering he has missed a lot of time due to injury over the last two seasons.  He has been quite productive when healthy but making a long-term commitment to someone that has missed a fair bit of time lately does carry some risk.  And while the 26-year-old produced like a top liner this season, his numbers have been closer to that of a second liner.

So let’s put Mantha in a 45-60 point range to allow for a bit of improvement still if he stays healthy (he played at a 72-point pace this season so the top end may even be a bit low).  Is Detroit going to get someone better than that with the 16th pick?  Chances are that a player or two picked after that will get to that level but the odds of getting a top-six forward in the middle of the first round aren’t great.  Now if you’re Detroit, you’re looking at a talent downgrade which isn’t ideal.

Mantha’s still young enough to be part of Detroit’s core group when they come out of this rebuilding phase so he’s someone they should be building around, not sending away for a lottery ticket that will be a long away from getting to Mantha’s level.

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