PHR Mailbag

There were plenty of questions to get to in this edition of the PHR Mailbag.  Topics include Rick Tocchet’s coaching candidacy, expansion rules, a possible fit for Philadelphia’s back end, Jack Eichel’s future, the coaching search in Buffalo, Toronto’s past GM move, the recent Rasmus Ristolainen to New Jersey rumor, the offseason ahead for Columbus and Calgary, and a Boston free agent scenario.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

pitmanrich: What has Rick Tocchet done in his head coaching career to warrant the interviews he’s had so far? (Rangers, Columbus, and Seattle.) His teams regularly miss the playoffs, he’s got an overall losing record, am I missing something? Surely there are more deserving coaches out there.

I am a little surprised that Tocchet has had the interest he has since parting ways with Arizona.  As you note, his track record wasn’t great with Tampa Bay or Arizona; a 178-200-60 record over six seasons with one bubble playoff appearance isn’t inspiring on the surface.

However, his reputation is that of being a good communicator and that is something that teams are showing more and more interest in.  The days of one approach fits all are dwindling fast and in both of his head coaching stints, Tocchet was lauded for how he can relate to players.  The same was said for his time as an assistant which helped him get that opportunity with the Coyotes.

It’s also worth noting that he’s coming from an environment that has leaned heavy on analytics.  Seattle appears to be a team that’s highly investing on that front so someone like Tocchet that is familiar with some of those concepts would be a bit more appealing.  And considering he has now had three interviews with them per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link), he has to be considered as a legitimate contender for that position.

If you’re a team that’s looking for experience but don’t want one of the ‘old school’ veterans like Mike Babcock, Claude Julien, John Tortorella, or Bruce Boudreau (to name a few), Tocchet is in that next range.  He has a different reputation than those bench bosses but still has a fair bit of experience – six years as a head coach and six more as an assistant.  That’s typically enough to garner some interviews.  If he doesn’t wind up with one of the remaining vacancies, he will undoubtedly come up as a strong candidate to take over a team midseason or next summer as a result.

mz90gu: How many games does an RFA have to play to be ineligible to be picked by the Kraken?

Free agency status doesn’t actually have an impact here.  Any unsigned draft pick or players with two years or less on an NHL contract are exempt while everyone else is eligible.  If you’re thinking about the games played criterion we’ve been citing in our Expansion Primer series, at least two signed forwards and one signed defenseman must have played either 27 games this season or 54 over the past two years combined.

However, players that have been signed for more than two years that haven’t played that many games are still eligible for selection; it doesn’t exempt them.  Teams merely have to expose that many players under contract.  As long as they’ve been under contract for longer than two seasons, restricted free agents are eligible to be picked by the Kraken.

Black Ace57: Is there any way to make a Seth Jones to the Flyers trade work?

It depends on how hesitant Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen is on trading a core player within the division.  If he doesn’t want to send a top defender to a division rival, that’s pretty much the end of that idea.  But that’s not very fun for a mailbag answer, is it?

On the surface, Jones isn’t a great fit considering that the Flyers have pretty good depth on the left side.  But it stands to reason that some of that depth would probably need to go the other way.  I don’t see Ivan Provorov being available in this scenario but Travis Sanheim is the type of player that should be of some interest to the Blue Jackets, a young defender with a couple of years of team control left.  That’d be an interesting piece.

I also wonder if they’d be open to moving Morgan Frost who hasn’t pushed his way into a regular role just yet.  A lot depends on if they can get extensions done for Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier; if they got them done early, Frost would potentially be expendable.  With the Blue Jackets’ situation down the middle, Frost would be of some interest.

Is that enough to get a trade done?  Perhaps not but that should be a reasonable starting point.  I suspect that they’re not looking for long-term future talent and instead would prefer guys that are ready now or close to being ready.  A rebuild is on the horizon but I don’t think they plan to go deep enough into one where a first-rounder that’s four or five years away fits the timeline.

We saw Carolina give Dougie Hamilton permission to talk to teams early about a sign-and-trade.  Jones is in a bit of a different situation in that he has one more year left at $5.4MM but since he doesn’t want to entertain an extension, he’s heading for an eventual exit.  If an extended Jones brought a better return, it would be prudent for Kekalainen to at least explore that option.

Busta607: Malkin and a 1st round pick for Eichel?

jeffh: What are the chances of the Ducks landing Eichel? I feel like they have the assets, but will them not being willing to move Zegras or Drysdale remove the possibility?

Also, who do you think the Ducks go for if they don’t land Eichel?

Let’s combine the Eichel questions together.  For the Pittsburgh proposal, there are a couple of hiccups.  The first is that is that they don’t have a first-round pick this year, particularly an early one which seems to be the expectation.  The second is that Evgeni Malkin has a no-move clause and there’s no reason for him to waive it to go to a bottom-feeder in the Eastern Conference.

On top of that, Malkin is only a year away from free agency and turns 35 next month.  Is that what a rebuilding team should be trading their franchise forward for?  Pittsburgh isn’t a great fit for Eichel; he’ll be heading somewhere else.

As for Anaheim, they definitely seem to be in the mix and have the high first-round pick (third overall) that gives them an edge on other potential suitors.  It will be difficult to do it with Jamie Drysdale or Trevor Zegras but that first rounder should yield a similar caliber of player if they’re willing to part with it.  If not, I don’t think they have much of a chance.  There are some other young pieces that should still have some value as a secondary element (Sam Steel, Isac Lundestrom, and Max Jones come to mind) and then some cap ballast (someone like Adam Henrique at $5.825MM).  If that third pick is in play, they have to be considered one of the contenders for Eichel.

As for who else they might go after?  It’s a pretty broad list – basically anyone that can score.  Anaheim needs several top-six upgrades and they’re not in a position to be too selective.  If a top-six player is available, they’ll be inquiring.

sabres3277: At this point, the Sabres coaching search seems to be centered on keeping Don Granato or hiring former Ranger coach David Quinn. Any thoughts on what direction they should take?? It is desperation time in Buffalo.

I don’t think either would necessarily be a bad choice given their situation.  Let’s face it, the Sabres aren’t looking for someone who is magically going to turn things around.  At least, they shouldn’t be.  They’re no closer to becoming contenders than they were years ago.  There are pieces in place but one of them looks like he’s about to be moved and it’s unlikely they’ll want win-now players in return.  What they need is someone that can raise the floor for the group and work on individual skill development.  A few years from now when they’re ready to contend (if all goes well), they’d probably be looking for that win-now coach at the same time.

Granato did a nice job down the stretch but it has to come with the caveat that it came at the end of the year when the games were meaningless.  Quinn, meanwhile, had some good moments with the Rangers but it’s telling that several of their youngsters didn’t progress as much as they would have hoped which is part of the reason they missed the playoffs and he’s on the look for another job.  That might be a bit of a red flag but he had success in college developing young players so that has to be kept in mind as well.  I’d lean towards Granato but I think Quinn would certainly help their program as well.

KAR 120C: When comparing Lou Lamoriello to Kyle Dubas, was it a mistake for Toronto to try new analytics versus old experience?  Considering where the Islanders are and the Leafs are not.

I can’t say it was a huge mistake based on analytics.  Not every team can be built the same way and who knows, a couple of years from now, the tide could have shifted drastically towards skill and they’ll be sitting pretty while the Isles are languishing a bit.

For me, the biggest difference would have been salary cap management.  I can’t see Lamoriello giving any of Toronto’s top-four forwards the contracts they have now, ones that are viewed as more player-friendly.  I think John Tavares wouldn’t have been signed and the savings between that and cheaper short-term contracts for the other three would have given them the cap flexibility to bolster their back end and lengthen out their forward corps.  In hindsight, that might have given them a better shot at playoff success than what they’ve had since then.  To me, that’s a bigger issue than the usage of analytics.

Having said that, it’s also important to keep in mind that other teams were sniffing around Dubas; he wasn’t going to stay an assistant GM for much longer.  Lamoriello’s GM contract was up and he was 75 at the time.  Dubas was 32.  Mark Hunter was also in the mix as well at the time.  From an asset management standpoint, the safer play was to keep the up-and-coming executive which is what they did.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a prediction of the Stanley Cup winner, Alexandar Georgiev’s future with the Rangers, a thought on Mark Messier in New York, Jack Eichel trade talk, power forward prospects, and an early mock draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

lapcheung39: Do you see Tampa Bay will repeat as champion this year; if not, who do you see as a dark horse to win it all?

First, that was quite an entertaining series they had against Florida.  The fact that the Lightning played well against a team that really mixed it up physically bodes well for them, a team that is tacitly viewed as more of a finesse group.  However, even though I see them squeaking by Carolina in the second round, I don’t think they’re the favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

I suspect I’m hardly the only one in this camp but whoever wins the Colorado-Vegas series is my pick to win it all.  Those two teams are in win-now mode with rosters that don’t have many flaws and they know that their best chance is now with the flat cap and pending free agents.  (I know Tampa Bay is in a similar boat as well.)  I have the Avalanche getting through the Golden Knights so they’d be my pick.  I know that’s hardly a dark horse but I don’t think there is one.

CoachWall: Any chance the Rangers include Georgiev in a trade for a center and bring “The King” back to mentor/back up Igor? It would give Henry a way to get a proper send-off before #30 takes its rightful place in the rafters.

Let’s address a quick CBA note here in that there is nothing preventing New York from doing this if they wanted to.  Players that are bought out can sign back with the team that bought them out (Calgary’s Michael Stone being the most recent example).

But even though they can, I don’t think they want to do that, nor should they.  If the inclusion of Georgiev helps land an impact center, that’d be great.  I don’t think he carries enough value to be a key piece of such a trade but in a bigger deal, I could see him being included.

But that doesn’t mean Lundqvist should be the target.  He hasn’t played this season after undergoing open-heart surgery which means he will have gone about 14 months between game action between the bubble and the start of next year.  It’s also important to remember that his numbers in his final season with New York weren’t particularly great and were below average for a backup.

I agree that Igor Shesterkin could benefit from a veteran backup who can help mentor him but the Rangers need someone that’s a little more reliable and doesn’t come with as many question marks in terms of health.  For as talented as Shesterkin is, he has all of 48 career NHL games under his belt and we appear to be heading for an 82-game season in 2021-22.  If I’m GM Chris Drury, I’m looking for someone that I’m comfortable handing 35-40 starts to next season.  It’d make for a fantastic story but I don’t think that Lundqvist can handle that workload at the age of 39, at least to the point of giving them above-average backup goaltending.

The good news is that a lot of the other veteran free agent goalies out there should be able to handle that type of action so if they do move Georgiev this summer, there will be several viable options to turn to.

@flaguy12: Any chance if the Rangers interviewing Mark Messier for their head coaching job?

Is there a chance they’re interviewing Messier?  Sure.  I’d even go as far as saying they’re likely to talk to him considering his comments earlier this month when he said he was “standing by ready to help out” following the firings of Jeff Gorton and John Davidson.  But as a head coach?  I’d be shocked.

Messier dabbled in coaching a decade ago, heading up Canada’s entries into the Deutschland and Spengler Cups.  He also has a couple of stints as an assistant coach with peewee teams.  That’s the extent of his coaching background.  That’s not enough to make him a credible candidate to be an NHL coach, let alone a head coach.

If they do speak with Messier, I wouldn’t be surprised if a role similar to the Senior Advisor post he held a decade ago with the team.  If he had any intention of being in a full-time NHL role somewhere, his name would have popped up for opportunities somewhere over the past several years.  Accordingly, a part-time role makes more sense for him which would be as an advisor or some sort of player development coach.

sabres3277: Do you believe that the Sabres will trade Eichel? If so, what team would be the best landing spot to bring the Sabres the best return? And what kind of return are the Sabres looking at?

It has been a tough stretch in Buffalo for the past several years and to be honest, I don’t see a lot of hope on the horizon for them.  That’s not at all a shot at Jack Eichel either but the supporting cast isn’t good enough and the rotating door of coaches and general managers doesn’t help either.  He’s one more season away from having the ability to veto a move when his no-move clause kicks in.  I don’t get the sense he’s going to be happier with the Sabres a year from now, especially with the current issue of wanting surgery that the team won’t sign off on.  Even with that lingering procedure, it certainly feels as if they have a better shot at getting more for him this summer than next offseason when he can limit the market.  Accordingly, I do believe that Eichel will be on the move.

I don’t know how willing the Kings are to commit to three players making at least $10MM on their payroll when they’re a non-playoff team but on paper, they match up well.  Buffalo needs a top young center in a trade.  Los Angeles has Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, and Gabriel Vilardi as recent first-round picks.  They don’t have extra first-round picks but have extra picks in the next two rounds this summer which makes it a bit easier to part with their top selection.  They also have ample cap space which means they don’t have to match money.  That’s a strong foundation of a deal right there.

The Rangers have been long speculated as a landing spot but their package would have to be based on young defensemen more than a center as part of the reason New York would be in the hunt here is that youngsters like Filip Chytil and Brett Howden haven’t established themselves as top-six fits.  I don’t know if the fit is as good and it’s a deal where money would need to be matched beyond the inclusion of Ryan Strome.  I’ll toss in a dark horse team as well, the Blue Jackets.  If Buffalo really likes one of Joonas Korpisalo or Elvis Merzlikins and that goalie is willing to sign, that could give them their starter for the foreseeable future, a core piece.  They have three first-round picks at their disposal and could add someone like Max Domi to give him another fresh start although they don’t need to match money either.  There are some pieces to work with for an offer there.

I can see this being a four or five-piece package.  A young core player that’s either signed long-term or under team control for four or five years (Eichel has five years left on his deal).  There needs to be a top prospect in there and probably a first-round pick or comparable prospect.  The rest will be taking a player or two back for cap purposes.  That’s a higher price than Ryan O’Reilly but Eichel is in a higher tier.  O’Reilly is quite good but Eichel is a franchise player.  They need to demand a huge return and even in a flat-cap market, they should be able to get it.

Pieters: Which prospects would have the best chance of being the next Brady Tkachuk (i.e., scoring forward that’s not afraid to mix it up)?

That’s a very rare combination to try to match which is part of the reason Tkachuk went as high as he did (fourth overall in 2016).  There frankly hasn’t been one like him since then which makes this rather challenging to answer.

I think players like Matt Boldy (MIN) and Samuel Poulin (PIT) could fit the bill offensively.  Boldy hasn’t had a chance to throw his weight around much in college but I think as he fills out, he’ll have a bigger willingness to get engaged physically.  I’m not sure that means he’ll drop the gloves a ton but there should be a physicality element in time and he should score enough to be in the top six.  Poulin has shown the offensive skill in junior that could translate to the pros but he already is a particularly physical player and undoubtedly will be highly valued by Pittsburgh’s new management team.  If he puts it all together, he could fit that bill.

One other wildcard that comes to mind is Jake Neighbours (STL).  I’m not convinced that his offensive ceiling is as high as Tkachuk’s but he could be a 15-20-goal player that drops the gloves from time to time while being able to mix it up in the corners.

If you’re looking at this and thinking that none of these players are like Tkachuk, you’re right.  They’re not.  But part of what makes Tkachuk or any other power forward of that ilk (think Milan Lucic and Wayne Simmonds in their primes) is that the combination of physicality and offensive skill is so hard to get; they don’t come around often.  There are players with similar offensive games but don’t throw their weight around as much.  There are more players willing to engage in the corners and play rough but lack the offensive upside to play in the top six.  Rarely do you see both in the same player.

Tkachuk may not have the overall offensive upside as some of the others that went behind him in that draft but with everything else he brings to the table, the Sens believed he’d be more valuable.  That belief has been rewarded so far.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Department of Player Safety, the possibility of compliance buyouts, a creative Arizona trade idea, teams that could be heading for a sizable shakeup, Nashville’s regular season struggles, Philadelphia’s offseason, and NHL officiating.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

pawtucket: How would you fix the Department of Player Safety and its obvious flaws and inconsistencies?

When it comes to its flaws, I’m not sure everyone in the league and the NHL Players Association necessarily sees it that way.  I’m not going to weigh in on the Tom Wilson incident which is what I suspect led to this question aside from noting that the view of general managers who were willing to speak off the record about it was hardly unanimous.  I’m fairly confident the same can be said of the players as well.  If someone wants to see stiffer discipline handed out, there is someone else who likes things the way there are now.  That makes meaningful changes hard to accomplish.

The fine system has largely been ridiculed given its lack of teeth but that’s how both sides (the NHL and NHLPA) seem to want it.  The threshold for levying a fine without a disciplinary hearing is $5K and is collectively bargained (Section 18 for anyone who wants to look up the details).  That’s why most fines have been for that amount; it’s the most they can give without calling a hearing.  It can actually be higher (up to $15K for multiple fines in a 12-month period) but a hearing would have to happen each time.  If they want it to be higher, it needs to be agreed upon in the CBA.  They just extended the CBA and didn’t touch it.  Until a large percentage of players and league executives believe things need to change, they’re not going to change.

As to what I might change?  That’s a hard one as the ideas I have certainly have flaws to them but here they are.  Having an independent party make the decision could be more objective than an NHL employee but that would cost more money and chances are, the league would be more hesitant to refer matters to that independent person which would mean even more of the current system.  Maybe some sort of panel makes a ruling – one with a league representative, an NHLPA representative, and one other party (perhaps a former player).  Each makes their ruling and the suspension or fine becomes the average or median amount of those three.  I’ll admit, that’s not a great system either but in terms of changes that I can think of, those are the ones that come to mind.

Joe422: With so many teams up against the salary cap… is there any chance the league allows a compliance buyout this offseason? And if yes, we know Ladd, Neal, etc will be bought out but what surprise names could we see?

If there was going to be a compliance buyout that was allowed, it would have been last year when teams were caught off guard by the cap flattening out instead of continuing to increase.  Everyone has now had a season to operate under the new system and have signed contracts knowing what the new economic reality is.  And while there are some large-market, cap-strapped teams that would welcome the ability for a cap-exempt buyout, there are others that want to see those teams suffer, for lack of a better term.  I’d be surprised if one was allowed this summer.

But, just for fun, a name that came to mind that might be viewed as a surprise when I saw this question was Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky.  He has not fared well with the Panthers; a .902 SV% wasn’t what they were expecting when they gave him $10MM a year for seven years.  They have Spencer Knight who is their goalie of the future.  Clearing Bobrovsky’s deal off the books would also allow them to be able to afford to re-sign pending UFA Chris Driedger, bring in a veteran backup/platoon option, and still come out with cap and real dollar savings.  GM Bill Zito isn’t the GM who gave Bobrovsky the contract so there’s no situation where the GM isn’t willing to admit his mistake – it was Dale Tallon who made it.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Arizona expose Phil Kessel for the draft, then give up an asset to trade to get him back after the $5MM signing bonus has been paid?

Technically, this is legal, sort of.  In the Vegas draft, teams were allowed to trade back for the players that they lost and a few of those teams went down that road but couldn’t work something out.  However, as Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic noted back in 2017 (Twitter link), it can’t be part of a pre-arranged transaction.  Assuming that the purpose of this is to have Seattle repay Kessel’s July 1 signing bonus to Arizona (which is how it technically would work), that certainly feels like a pre-arranged transaction.  They’d have to get a little creative as a result.

For a deal to not appear as pre-arranged, some time would need to elapse before Arizona would re-acquire Kessel.  I’m thinking a couple of months or more with the deal coming just before (or during) training camp.  By then, the Coyotes could plausibly argue that they were unable to replace him in free agency or the trade market and having had time to re-assess their team, now believe that they need to bring him back (and would be paying a fairly significant cost to do so).  Is losing a good pick/prospect or two and potentially drawing the ire of the league worth saving $5MM in costs?  Even with their financial situation, I’m not sure they’d see it that way but I like the creative thinking.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What teams if they are eliminated in Round 1 can you see making big changes this offseason?

For example, if Edmonton is eliminated in Round 1, do they shake up their core outside of Leon, Connor and Darnell?

Edmonton certainly seems like the obvious choice to be bolder in their team building.  The forward depth isn’t the greatest which is a by-product of having players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on their roster.  Their defense isn’t elite by any stretch either.  I don’t think they’d move one of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Darnell Nurse but I don’t think there would be many untouchables beyond those three either.  If they go down to Winnipeg with the offense continuing to sputter, GM Ken Holland will have a hard time justifying keeping things the way they are now.

Washington also stands out as a possibility and with them down 3-1 to Boston, them losing also stands out as a possibility.  It has been a weird year for them and it certainly feels like Evgeny Kuznetsov’s time with them could be in jeopardy.  Any time a center of his caliber becomes available, that’s shaking up the core.  If they wind up exposing and losing T.J. Oshie to Seattle as some have speculated, that would be another big change to their core group.

Gbear: Despite getting into the playoffs, the Predators have been awful at shot suppression, shot creation and special teams throughout John Hynes’ tenure as coach. Is merely squeezing into the playoffs reason to allow him to keep his job in Nashville?

Related to that, it would seem that if any team needed to make a play for Jack Eichel, it would be Nashville. Would it not be reasonable for GM Poile to offer up two first-rounders, and any of their prospects not named Tomasino or Farrance for him?

Speaking of a team that could try to shake things up with a first-round exit, Nashville would certainly qualify as well.  They’ve been sputtering for a while now and it’s clear the composition of players they have don’t work in terms of maximizing their individual talents.  A swap of high-priced underachievers is one of the ways that teams can make moves without creating cap problems as long as the deals are similarly priced and the Predators look like a prime candidate to do that.

The hiring of Hynes was a little surprising at the time and frankly was underwhelming as nothing he had done in New Jersey suggested he was a ‘must-hire before anyone else gets a chance to get him’ coach.  But it wouldn’t be fair to just lay it at his feet as the core wasn’t exactly doing much under Peter Laviolette either.  I think it’s more of a roster composition issue than a coaching one at this point.  And for what it’s worth, Hynes has only been behind the bench for 84 regular season games, barely one full season.  Coaches, especially ones that they moved quickly to get like they did, typically get a longer leash than that, playoff success or not.

As for targeting Eichel, sure, they’d be wise to show interest in him.  However, the cost to get a franchise player is going to be considerably higher than a couple of first-round picks that will be near the middle of the round and some prospects that aren’t at the top of their pool.  Eichel will be looked at in more detail next week but if Buffalo isn’t getting elite talent in return, they shouldn’t be moving him.  That package isn’t going to yield elite talent.

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The playoffs have begun, even though the 2020-21 regular season isn’t actually over for the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames. Still, those games are more like tryouts for young players than competitive NHL action, meaning the focus is on the postseason from here on out.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. The first part looked at the future for Taylor Hall, some expansion draft complications, and the Selke Trophy vote. The second discussed the unproven goaltending situation in Pittsburgh, Seattle’s first star, and which dark horses could make a run during the playoffs.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Pittsburgh’s goalies, Colorado’s decision to not add a more prominent backup goalie, some Seattle side deal speculation, a quick look a Boston’s expansion situation, what sleeper teams could make some noise in the playoffs, a junior player that hasn’t received much NHL interest, and some comments on some young NHL forwards that haven’t quite found their way offensively.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

One More JAGR: Do the Penguins have the goaltending tandem to make it to the big show or is the lack of experience going to be an Achilles’ heel?

The tandem of Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith (when healthy; both are currently hurt) is certainly far from the top tandem in the league but teams have gone deep with lesser starters before.  Both goalies have shown they can get hot for stretches and in the playoffs, a hot streak can win a round or two so I think they’re capable of being good enough to do some damage if one gets going at the right time.

However, I’m not overly confident that they will be able to do that.  Pittsburgh is the top-scoring team in the league this season which is great but scoring rates typically go down instead of up in the playoffs.  That puts more pressure on the goalies to try to limit teams to two or less.  Jarry has allowed three or more goals in 20 of 39 appearances this season and DeSmith in nine of 20.  That’s basically a 50/50 split on allowing three or more.  It’s hard to go deep in the playoffs with those types of odds and with them looking like they’ll line up against the Islanders, the games are definitely going to be lower-scoring.  One of them will need to get going right away to avoid an upset.

Eaton Harass: Why would Sakic go out and get two questionable backups instead of getting one solid one?

I think part of the problem was the uncertainly with Pavel Francouz’s injury.  At the time they went and got Jonas Johansson, I suspect they were still holding out hope for Francouz to return.  If they thought he was going back, then just getting a short-term bridge guy made some sense and to Johansson’s credit, he has been better than I thought he was going to be.

Devan Dubnyk’s addition was a bit of a surprise though.  I thought Jonathan Bernier was going to be their target, someone who had played there before and while he’s not a true starter, he’s an above-average backup.  Dubnyk hasn’t been that for a couple of years now so him being targeted was odd and I wonder if he was the fallback plan.  Landing on the COVID Protocol Related Absences List certainly hasn’t helped things either.

However, the goalie trade market never really materialized.  Florida held onto Chris Driedger and Detroit kept Bernier, taking the two top options off the market in the process which limited their options to add more of an impact goalie.  The Panthers wanted the goalie insurance for their playoff run and I suspect the Red Wings are going to try to re-sign Bernier.  GM Joe Sakic doesn’t strike me as someone that’s going to push all of the chips to the table either.  They know they need some cost-effective players over the next couple of years and holding onto their top picks gives them a better chance to develop some of those.

Incremental upgrades were the name of the game for the Avs at the deadline as Sakic supplemented the depth instead of the core.  I think they should have been willing to pay a bit more to get a more reliable option but with most of the notable names not moving, I can’t say for certain that they didn’t try either.  If Philipp Grubauer can stay healthy though, who backs him up in the playoffs should ultimately be a moot point anyway.  But with what happened last year, I can certainly understand why there’s a bit more emphasis on the backup this time around.

pawtucket: Who (or what) will Seattle’s biggest acquisitions be?

This is really hard to predict when we’re more than two months away from protection lists being released.  Trades will be made, players will be injured in the playoffs which could shift them from protected to unprotected, and there may be another GM change or two on the horizon which could also affect things.  As a result, at this point, the best I can offer is a couple of vague predictions on side deals.

Tampa Bay needs to dump money and Seattle has the ability to absorb it better than anyone else can.  Tyler Johnson’s $5MM AAV needs to come off the books.  I suspect that Seattle is going to receive a significant package in exchange for selecting Johnson.  Given their free agent situation up front and a need for several low-cost forwards, I suspect the incentive is going to come from the back end where Cal Foote, a 2017 first-round pick, seems like a player that could be part of that package as someone that can start on Seattle’s third pairing and ideally work his way up a bit.

Right now, Washington’s goaltenders seem like the logical target as they can’t protect both Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov.  Neither are ready for full-time number one duty but both are young and cost-controllable.  Combined, that tandem certainly could work for the Caps for a few years.  With that in mind, I expect GM Brian MacLellan to work out a side deal to keep them around.  That shouldn’t cost a top prospect but their upcoming second-round pick seems like something Kraken GM Ron Francis may be asking for.

As the offseason gets going, we’ll certainly be diving deeper into the situations for the 30 teams that will lose players (Vegas is exempt) where we’ll be able to put together better pictures of what could happen so I’m sure we’ll be able to come up with some predictions as we get closer to the expansion draft.

case7187: With the exp draft coming who should the Bruins protect? We know the Big 3 and Coyle (NMC) while they should trade DeBrusk; they should’ve done that last season when he had value. The 3 D are Carlo McAvoy and Grzelcyk (IMO they should look to move him as well with his long list of injuries) but goalie not sure and not really worried about some of the other guys this season has shown me the need to blow up the bottom nine.

I’m going to go a little out of order and talk about Jake DeBrusk first.  I don’t see there being much of a viable trade market for him this summer.  The year he is having has hurt his trade value considerably and his back-loaded contract only makes things worse as his $4.85MM salary is far from desirable.  I’ll take it a step farther and say there’s a better chance he’s bought out than traded.  As he’s under 25, it’s only a one-third cost and the back-loading of the deal would make for a pretty low cap charge.  (Per CapFriendly, doing so would give Boston a cap credit of $366K next year and a cap charge of $808K in 2022-23).  To me, that’s more desirable than trying to move him for another bad contract.

Now let’s look at the forwards.  As you noted, Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and Charlie Coyle are locked in with no-move clauses and David Pastrnak is an obvious choice.  I’m going to put Nick Ritchie and Craig Smith as my next two picks; Ritchie remains young enough to still improve and has been a lot better than he was in limited action last year after being acquired while Smith is on a pretty good contract.  That leaves one spot for Trent Frederic and Zach Senyshyn, two prospects who haven’t done much with their chances.  Frederic gets the spot as he has at least mostly established himself as a regular while Senyshyn is more on the fringes.  For anyone checking, that leaves DeBrusk, Ondrej Kase (injuries make him a safe bet to not be picked), Curtis Lazar, and Chris Wagner as unprotected forwards and they would be in compliance with the requirement to have at least two signed players unprotected that have played in 27 games this year or 54 over the last two years with this list.

I agree with the defense although it leaves Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon exposed and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those two get picked by Seattle.  I kicked around the idea of leaving Matt Grzelcyk exposed with his contract but Boston’s back end can’t take any more hits in terms of losing established talent.  As for goalies, Jeremy Swayman is exempt while Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak are UFAs and aren’t at any risk of being signed and picked.  That puts it between Daniel Vladar and Callum Booth and of those two, I’d protect Vladar.  It means that Booth needs a qualifying offer when he hasn’t earned it but they’re not going to be the only team qualifying a goalie for that very reason.

wreckage: Whom are the biggest sleepers entering the postseason? Everyone expects big things from Tampa, Colorado, Vegas, and Toronto. Could a Minnesota, Edmonton, Montreal, or Florida surprise and make a run?

I think Minnesota’s the team to watch for here.  They’ve given Vegas fits this season winning five of eight games with two of the three losses coming in overtime.  They’ve also been alright against Colorado who right now lines up as their more probable first-round matchup.  They’re scoring at a good clip but have a fairly balanced attack and both Cam Talbot and Kaapo Kahkonen have shown themselves to be capable of playing quite well for a long stretch.

I’m not as bullish on the other three you listed.  Edmonton’s still largely the same team that got upset in the bubble a year ago and no matter how well Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl do, they probably can’t carry the load alone while having success in the playoffs.  Montreal is supposed to be built for the playoffs but they haven’t looked good outside of the first ten games of the season.  If they’re healthy by then, they’re good enough to give a team a scare but I don’t see them going deep.  I give Florida a ton of credit for turning things around but I can’t pick them to beat a Tampa Bay team that’s going to get captain Steven Stamkos and top winger Nikita Kucherov back.

I’m going to add the Islanders to the list as well.  They’ve shown that they can have playoff success with good defense and goaltending and those elements are definitely still in place.  Their offense is a bit deeper than it was a year ago and it would not surprise me much at all if they were the team that comes out of the East Division.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the latest on Chicago’s captain, Carolina’s quiet trade deadline, Taylor Hall’s next destination, Colorado’s goaltending situation for expansion, potential Selke Trophy candidates, targets for New Jersey in free agency, and many projections.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

realsox: What is the current status of Jonathan Toews?

Toews has missed the entire season due to an illness and with it being a sensitive health matter, it’s nice to see that there hasn’t been a lot of ill-founded speculation on his situation.  The original announcement was that he was experiencing symptoms that left him feeling drained and lethargic and quite frankly, that can be quite a few things and there’s no point guessing on what it could be.  He hasn’t skated lately and isn’t coming back this season, even if Chicago makes a miracle run to get to the playoffs.

The good news is that last month, TSN’s Darren Dreger reported that Toews’ health is improving and that as things stand, he’s expected to be available for next season which is great news.  That means that the Blackhawks won’t be able to put his $10.5MM on LTIR for next year but with Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw’s playing days done, they’ll still have a lot of money on there and if all goes well, they’ll have their captain back which would give them a huge boost at center, a position that has been a problem spot all season.

mikedickinson: Is Waddell’s lack of a move at the deadline going to hurt the Canes? With Jesper Fast out last night they dressed seven defensemen and the third and fourth lines weren’t anything great.

I know GM Don Waddell had suggested that they weren’t going to be anywhere near as active at the trade deadline as they were a year ago but I was expecting more from them than swapping out sixth defenders (Haydn Fleury for Jani Hakanpaa and a sixth-rounder).  I thought they’d have moved out a goalie but that market didn’t materialize as much as some thought it would (and with Petr Mrazek banged up again, that may wind up working out for them in the end).

I would have liked to see them add some more forward depth, especially since they had the cap space to add where a lot of other contenders didn’t but there may have been a budgetary element to that as well.  Having said that, a depth winger shouldn’t make or break their chances in the playoffs.  Carolina’s top six is what will make the difference and that has been bolstered with Teuvo Teravainen’s long-awaited return.  Teams often go as far as their top players will take them when it comes down to crunch time, so to speak and as long as those guys stay healthy, they should be in good shape regardless of their third and fourth lines.

M34: Where does Taylor Hall fail next season?

At this point, I don’t see a reason to think why it won’t be Boston.  Following the trade, Hall confirmed that he used his no-move clause to push a deal to the Bruins and that he had interest in joining them last fall but the money couldn’t come together.  Unless things go really poorly, it’s hard to see him opting to go elsewhere.

What works for Hall is that he’s now in a role that’s better suited for him.  At this point of his career, he’s not a 20-minute player that’s going to be counted on to get the key goal at the crucial moment.  He wasn’t that at the end of his time in New Jersey, he wasn’t that in Arizona, and he certainly wasn’t that in Buffalo this season.  If he decides to hit the open market this summer in a search for a role where he can be that number one guy, he will probably struggle once again.  But he doesn’t need to be that in Boston where he’s clearly behind Brad Marchand in the pecking order and Marchand isn’t giving up that role anytime soon.  He can get the secondary defensive matchups playing alongside David Krejci and take advantage of those which he has so far.

Also working in Boston’s favor is their cap situation moving forward.  Krejci’s $7.25MM comes off the books this summer and while there’s a very good chance he re-signs, it’ll be at a lower rate than what he’s getting now.  Some of those savings can go towards Hall – who is on Boston’s books at $4MM with Buffalo retaining the rest – while not drastically hurting their financial flexibility with moves still to make in terms of solidifying the defense and retaining or replacing Tuukka Rask.  Lots can change over the next few months but if I’m picking where he signs right now, it’s Boston.

coachdit: If you were in Joe Sakic’s shoes, what would you do with goalie regarding the expansion draft? Dubnyk and Gruby are UFA after the season, Johansson and Francouz are in their second season and I believe that means they are exempt.

Let’s look at the eligibility situation first.  This is Jonas Johansson’s fourth season on an NHL contract so he is eligible to be taken (but he’s a pending UFA at no risk of being picked).  It’s technically Pavel Francouz’s third year but he hasn’t played this season.  Unless he comes back, he won’t accrue a year of service time which makes him exempt.  Hunter Miska is also eligible for selection.

I don’t think there’s much of a decision to make here.  If they can re-sign Philipp Grubauer by then, he gets protected.  If they think there’s a chance to re-sign him after expansion, he gets protected.  If he goes to them and says he’s testing the open market, I’d still probably protect him as there’s no risk of Miska getting picked even with him on an AAV that’s below the league minimum salary for 2021-22; the Avs will have better players left unprotected to pick from than him.

The only way I don’t see Grubauer being protected is if his demands are so high that Colorado goes out and trades for a goalie.  In that case, whoever they get becomes protected.  Otherwise, signed or not, they may as well just protect Grubauer.

KAR 120C: Who are the Selke trophy candidates? I ask as Draisaitl is looking good, but wonder about all of the variables in play. It feels like there are always the incumbents.

Honestly, I don’t think Leon Draisaitl is in the conversation.  Regardless of how good someone’s defensive game is, if you’re battling for a scoring title, you’re probably getting overlooked for a defensive award.  He may get some fourth and fifth place votes but I doubt he sees more than that.

Yes, there are the usual suspects that are in it regularly.  Patrice Bergeron is always going to be in the mix.  So too is Ryan O’Reilly.  Last year’s winner (Sean Couturier) would have been in the mix had it not been for injuries.  Mark Stone dropped to fifth last year after finishing second three years in a row and has to be given strong consideration as well.

If you’re looking for a darkhorse candidate, I’ll toss out Aleksander Barkov.  He has been thought of as underrated for so long that he really isn’t underrated anymore so he’s on the radar for voters.  He logs heavy minutes including late-game defensive situations and takes a regular turn on the penalty kill.  He’s well above average at the faceoff dot.  If you look at possession and expected goals for stats (which some voters do), he stands out there as well.  And with the award seemingly gravitating towards the best two-way forward in the league instead of the best defensive one, Barkov certainly has the offensive numbers to stand out too.  You can never count out the regulars for this award but this may be the year for Barkov.

SpeakOfTheDevil: You mentioned in prior mailbags that the Devils lack an identity (which I sort of agree with you about).  That being said, name three free agents the Devs should go after this offseason to complement the pieces that we do have and that start acquiring that identity.

With the cap space New Jersey has entering a market that has few teams with big money to spend, I’m going to dream big here with a couple of these.  I don’t see them landing three big fish but here is who I’d target if I was GM Tom Fitzgerald.

Dougie Hamilton – With Ty Smith and Damon Severson already on the roster plus P.K. Subban, there’s a puck-rushing component to build off of.  Hamilton can add to that.  With the young group of forwards they have, Lindy Ruff is trying to get a team that plays more up-tempo.  Hamilton fits that playing style.  And with Subban being a year away from unrestricted free agency, there’s a pending hole to be filled and what better way to fill it than the best UFA blueliner out there that already fits the direction they seem to want to go?

Gabriel Landeskog – There is a lot of finesse in New Jersey’s young core but not a lot of high-end sandpaper.  Landeskog plays with enough of a physical edge to make him stand out among New Jersey’s options and is talented enough offensively to fit alongside Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and really bring another dimension to that line while also providing some much-needed scoring on the wing.  He’d be a huge boost on their top line.

Zach Hyman – Is he a big fish compared to these two?  Not really but he’d be a nice consolation prize nonetheless.  He has shown in Toronto that he is a perfect complementary piece for skill players and fits in an up-tempo environment.  That’s what New Jersey has and is hoping to build upon.  If the plan is to build around Hughes and Hischier anchoring the top two lines, they need someone that’s willing to do the dirty work around the boards and more specifically, someone that’s good at it.  Hyman checks those boxes.  With his price point coming in lower than some of the top free agents out there, he’s going to have plenty of interest but the Devils have the ability to outbid them all.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Jaden Schwartz’s future in St. Louis, what’s next for Toronto, Patrik Laine’s struggles in Columbus, some player predictions for next season, the next step for the Rangers’ rebuild, Quinn Hughes’ defensive struggles in Vancouver, what happens to NHL staff who are fired before the end of their deal, and what Boston could be up to in the coming days.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

vincent k. mcmahon: Considering Jaden Schwartz is going to be a UFA this offseason, do the Blues hold on to him and try for an extension or try and trade him at the deadline?

It has been an odd few days for St. Louis who have gone from a potential seller to one that may be looking to buy by Monday’s trade deadline.  But even having said that, I don’t think they’ll look to move Schwartz even if they opt to sell.  Instead, I expect their plans are going to be to keep him regardless and it’s worth noting that he can block a trade to half the league.

That doesn’t mean that an extension will happen by Monday.  I’d be surprised if it did.  There’s a comfort level between the two sides and what appears to be a mutual desire to get a deal done.  They have cap space opening up this summer with Tyler Bozak and Mike Hoffman off the books; between those and Schwartz’s $5.35MM expiring deal, there’s plenty of financial wiggle room to get a deal done.  I expect they will eventually get an extension worked out although it may need to come in a bit cheaper than his current rate for it to happen.

@nelson_fran_: Who do the Leafs pick up? Winger or d-man?

Even after adding Riley Nash yesterday – a tidy piece of business for GM Kyle Dubas – to give them a capable center for the playoffs, I expect Toronto to keep their sights focused on adding forward depth.

They’ve been linked to Alex Iafallo for a while now and that’s who I think they’ll ultimately end up with as long as he doesn’t sign a last-minute extension with Los Angeles.  He’d fit nicely into their top six alongside John Tavares and William Nylander and if the Kings retain half the money as Toronto would likely require them to, he’d only cost just over $1.2MM into their LTIR room which they should be able to afford even when Frederik Andersen returns.

It’s also worth noting that Dubas and Kings GM Rob Blake have a clear history of making moves with the Jake Muzzin and Jack Campbell trades in recent years.  That type of trust and familiarity certainly comes in handy and in such a strange season, that could be even more important as player agent Allan Walsh suggested on Twitter last night.  They’ve combined on a move the last two years and I think they’ll do it again.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Is Laine the problem or did CBJ just try and fit a square peg into a round hole and it backfired?

It’s some of each.  Let’s look at the second half first and talk about Columbus.  When Laine was successful in Winnipeg, he had other quality offensive players on his line that were above average at playmaking.  The Blue Jackets don’t really have that, especially down the middle.  John Tortorella’s rapid line change frequency also makes it hard to develop any sort of chemistry.  Laine was moved around a bit with the Jets but nowhere near as frequently as he has with Columbus.  That’s not the best type of environment for him to succeed in.

As for Laine, the same criticisms that existed during his time with Winnipeg are showing here.  He can score but when he’s not doing that, he’s not bringing much else to the table.  He has been rightly criticized for a lack of engagement at times and an infrequent willingness to try to play in the defensive zone.  No one is saying he needs to become an elite two-way presence or anything but a scorer that isn’t scoring isn’t worth playing much.  A scorer that can do some other things earns a much longer leash and better opportunities to play his way out of a slump.  That’s what he needs to realize.

When this deal was made, it felt like Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen was effectively kicking the can down the road, so to speak.  He received good short-term value on paper for Pierre-Luc Dubois (Jack Roslovic has impressed since joining the Blue Jackets as well) but Laine didn’t feel like the best fit in terms of helping them win now.  Accordingly, the fact that it hasn’t worked out all that well so far isn’t all that surprisingly.

The Duke: Crystal Ball visions for Seth Jarvis vs Alex Newhook (goals/assists only); Top-2 D-men in 2021 draft, scoring-wise; short- and long-term futures of Adin Hill and Laurent Brossoit (chosen by Seattle?); and does Laine get it straightened out, either in Columbus or elsewhere?

Jarvis/Newhook: Jarvis looks like the better goal scorer of the two and Carolina has to be extremely encouraged with what he was able to do in limited action in the AHL this season before returning to the WHL where he has lit it up again.  Newhook has been more of a playmaker throughout his career and should beat Jarvis in that regard in the NHL.  Both profile as good second-liners; give me a 25 goal, 20 assist average for Jarvis and a 20 goal, 25 assist one for Newhook.  Those would be nice returns for players selected in the middle of the first round.

2021 Defensemen: Picking the top two is tricky as there are three that are really ahead of the rest of the group.  Owen Power is one of the contenders to go first overall so let’s put him in there.  That puts it between Brandt Clarke and Luke Hughes, brother of Jack and Quinn.  I can see family bloodlines giving Hughes a boost that could make him the second one off the board although I believe Clarke will have the better career of the two as more of a two-way player but still contributes enough offensively to possibly fit on a top pairing.

Goalies: I don’t see Hill being particularly attractive to Seattle unless they want him as the third-string goalie.  There will be more proven netminders available to give the Kraken a quality one-two punch and I don’t think Hill’s viewed favorably enough around the league to draft him and then flip him elsewhere.  Brossoit is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season and again, isn’t at the level of some of the veterans that are going to be made available.  I don’t think he’d be good enough to be their backup and he’d be too expensive to serve as their third goalie.

Laine: I touched on him in the last question but while I do believe he’ll get things turned around, I don’t believe his long-term future is with Columbus.  He needs to be in a situation where he’s playing with a dynamic playmaker to set up his shot and the Blue Jackets aren’t that team.  I wouldn’t be shocked if there was a quiet trade request this offseason but even if not, I don’t think either side wants to do a long-term contract.  That means probably a one-year pact before a final call has to be made by the 2022 summer.

pitmanrich: As the season has provided more questions than answers what realistically do the Rangers need to do to take the next step in their rebuild? Trade for a top centre like Eichel if available? Change coach? And what do they do with Strome who continues to put points up, trade him or keep him?

For them to take the next step forward, they need that elite center.  Mika Zibanejad can be a number one but him behind a better one would greatly bolster their fortunes.  They have considerable depth on the wing that they can consolidate to try to make a move and with several of them being recent first-round picks – Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, and Vitali Kravtsov – they will carry considerable value.  If Jack Eichel is available, of course he’d fit the bill although making the money work in terms of trying to keep Zibanejad after may be a bit tricky.

Failing that, they need to upgrade on Strome.  I know he’s arguably having a better season than 2019-20 when he had a career year.  He fits with Artemi Panarin but the problem is that he hasn’t fit particularly well with anyone else on the Rangers for any extended period of time.  Having a top-six pivot that’s reliant on a certain winger to have success is far from ideal.  The challenge GM Jeff Gorton has is that every other team knows that too which makes getting fair value in a trade tricky.  As a result, he’s either salary ballast in a trade for an upgrade down the middle or he sticks around for the final year of his deal.

I am not a big proponent of changing coaches in general as more often than not, the warts of the roster will come back to bite whoever is behind the bench.  We’ve seen it with the changes made in Montreal and Calgary, in particular, as their records are no better than what they were before the moves.

David Quinn was brought in to bring the team through the rebuild and I’m not sure they’re there yet.  I think expectations were too high, too quick coming into the year which doesn’t help things.  But at the same time, Kakko and Lafreniere have underachieved in the early going.  If I’m Gorton, the question I’m asking myself is does Kris Knoblauch or someone else bring out more from those two?  If yes, make the change but if not, stick with Quinn.

bigguccisosa300: What do you think about Quinn Hughes going forward? He puts up points and is great on the power play but his plus/minus is kinda disturbing. Also, do you think Travis Green and/or Benning will be back next year?

I think he has basically been as advertised.  Coming out of college, the book on him was that he can certainly drive the play offensively and he has certainly done that.  However, he was also not viewed as a strong player in his own end and that has also come true, contributing to the -17 mark you referenced.  I think Vancouver was comfortable with the style of player they were getting when they picked him but I’m sure they’d like him to be a bit more conscientious in his own end.

I don’t see them having any reservations about committing to him on a long-term basis; someone that is capable of driving the offense as much as he can is going to get paid and there’s no denying that he is a key part of their future plans.

As for who will sign them to that contract, I wrote a couple of months back in a previous mailbag that Benning’s future will basically be tied to whether or not he gets permission to work on extensions for Hughes and Elias Pettersson.  If ownership has concerns about Benning’s performance, he wouldn’t be allowed to work on deals for his two key cogs.  The fact that he’s discussing those deals tells me he’s safe for next season and in that case, Green should be back as well.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what the Islanders may try to do at the trade deadline, possible returns for New Jersey’s trade options, Colorado’s goaltending situation, Peter Laviolette, Pittsburgh’s deadline goals, what the Flyers should do by the deadline, and Winnipeg’s weakened back end.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Y2KAK: Who do you think the Islanders pursue at the trade deadline?

redsfanken: What are the Islanders plans? Is really like to see some type of sniper like Patrik Laine, any chance?

Kyle Palmieri seems to be close to the perfect fit aside from the fact he plays the right wing and the player he’d effectively be replacing (Anders Lee) plays the left side.  I don’t think that would be enough to scuttle a deal either.  He’s a rental player with a proven track record of success that would immediately give their top six a boost.  They wouldn’t necessarily need New Jersey to retain half of the cap hit and salary which gives them a small edge that most of his other potential suitors don’t have.

Failing that, the focus will be on other rentals.  Taylor Hall would have to be considered with the usual retention caveat applying.  If Columbus opts to sell, Nick Foligno is the type of player that would fit New York’s playing style and given GM Lou Lamoriello’s affinity for Travis Zajac, I’m sure there will be a cursory inquiry if their options on the wing all fall through.

A sniper like Laine would help every team but acquiring him would really complicate things for the Islanders on the salary cap front next season.  A restricted free agent, Laine is owed a $7.5MM qualifying offer and he will likely be seeking more than that with salary arbitration eligibility.  The Isles have nearly $75MM in commitments already for next season per CapFriendly to just 15 players.  Even backing out Johnny Boychuk’s $6MM as he’ll be LTIR-eligible once again, they don’t have enough cap room to take on Laine’s expected contract, fill out the rest of their roster, and stay cap-compliant.  The focus needs to be on rental players as a result with Lee expected to be ready to return next season.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Realistically what could the returns be for the Devils players rumored to be on the block?

Palmieri, Kulikov, Murray, Subban, Gusev

Kyle Palmieri – Based on his history of being a consistent scorer, GM Tom Fitzgerald would probably like to see a first-round pick for Palmieri’s services.  I’m not overly confident he’ll get it though.  With just eight goals this season in 34 games, he’s not exactly playing at the top of his game which is going to hurt.  A second-round pick seems low but that coupled with a decent prospect should be doable.  If they have to retain money, the quality of the prospect should increase.

Dmitry Kulikov – I took a closer look at him last weekend so I won’t rehash that here.  He’s worth a mid-round pick or comparable prospect.

Ryan Murray – He’s someone that probably isn’t cracking the top four of a playoff-bound team and at $4.6MM, he’s expensive for a third-pairing player.  He’s worth a mid-round pick as long as New Jersey retains half of the money and probably takes some sort of salary offset back.

P.K. Subban – He’s having a better year than last season but that’s not saying much.  His price tag is way too expensive for teams to fit in and it’s hard to imagine the Devils being willing to retain half which they’d need to if they wanted to make a deal.  I don’t see a feasible trade for him by the deadline.

Nikita Gusev – Gusev cleared waivers yesterday so the ‘give him away for free’ option is off the table.  It has been a dreadful year for him and I doubt there is much if any interest in him around the league.  If there’s a swap of bad contracts in a change of scenery type of trade, perhaps he moves but he probably stays and a buyout in the summer shouldn’t be ruled out.

kales1206: Do you think the Avalanche will be making some moves to improve their goaltending depth because I know Johansson isn’t the answer?

They certainly would benefit from such a move.  While I understand the idea behind targeting Jonas Johansson, playing in front of a better team has not made him a better goalie.  Is he an upgrade on what Hunter Miska was providing?  A bit but he also isn’t going to be reliable enough to be the full-fledged backup if Pavel Francouz doesn’t return which is something that seems like a real possibility at this point.  There was a reason that Buffalo parted with him for so little as they had clearly given up on him.  It was worth a shot they would be wise to take a better one…if they can afford it.

A lot is going to depend on Francouz’s outlook over the next ten days.  If they think he’s done for the season, they’ll be able to spend his money on a replacement – perhaps Jonathan Bernier with Detroit retaining some money?  To me, that makes the most sense.  But if they believe that Francouz will be back, that complicates things as they’d need to get back into cap compliance to activate Francouz.  That’s doable if Erik Johnson doesn’t come back and stays on LTIR for the rest of the season but he has been week to week for many weeks now; there’s a lot of uncertainty with him as well.

Adding a veteran upgrade to help Philipp Grubauer should be high on GM Joe Sakic’s wish list as long as Francouz can’t return for the rest of the year.  If that determination is made, then yes, I do believe they’ll add a goalie.  But if they can’t reach that conclusion on him or Johnson, it becomes a lot more complicated to try to make a move, a hurdle that could be too tricky to overcome cap-wise.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Any chance Francis tries to pry Laviolette from Washington? Could make an expansion draft like deal but for a coach.

I know there’s a brief connection between Seattle GM Ron Francis and Washington head coach Peter Laviolette from their days in Carolina when Francis was still playing but is Laviolette so much better than any other current head coaching candidate that isn’t currently with a team to justify ‘trading’ for him?  I don’t think that’s the case, especially with Gerard Gallant, who helped lead the last expansion team to a better-than-expected start, still out there.

There’s also the matter of being unable to trade coaches like Quebec did with Michel Bergeron back in 1987 when they traded him to the Rangers for a first-round pick or Toronto including the negotiating rights to Marc Crawford as part of the Mats Sundin trade seven years later, also involving Quebec.  That makes it really difficult to try to do things on the up and up, so to speak.

For something like this to happen, the Capitals would have to fire Laviolette, then Laviolette would have to go on an interview tour to show that this wasn’t a pre-arranged deal before being hired for the same or higher rate than he’s getting now, and lastly, Seattle would have to make a trade that is in Washington’s favor but not by enough to raise the eyebrows of the league who could probably piece it together anyway.  It’s a creative idea but I don’t think it’s doable and with how the Caps are doing this year, I don’t see Washington wanting to let Laviolette go anyway even with some sort of compensation.

gozurman1: What would you do, if anything, if you were the Penguins? It appears Jarry is coming back within the next game or two. Same with Blueger. If Malkin and Kapanen are both good to go, would you mess with altering the team that seems to have been playing well since February when the defensemen all got healthy?

I’d definitely be trying to add if I was GM Ron Hextall.  They don’t need to make several trades and ship players out to shake things up but if they can afford to add a veteran piece or two to improve the depth on the roster, they should be doing so.  These types of players shouldn’t be drastically altering team chemistry by any stretch.

As for what they should be trying to add, I’d be looking down the middle.  Evgeni Malkin is nearing a return but between him and Jared McCann both missing considerable time, an insurance policy would definitely be ideal.  Someone that could fill the role that Matt Cullen did in the past where he could kill penalties and be decent enough offensively to be able to slide onto the third line if someone gets hurt.  Team president Brian Burke has indicated that they’re looking for more grit so that’s an element they’ll probably want to target as well.

Of course, cap space is at a premium, especially with Malkin set to come off LTIR somewhat soon.  Per CapFriendly, they can only add about $1.1MM on deadline day so it’s going to take a bit of creativity to add to the roster.  Pittsburgh can afford a depth upgrade and that’s about it; a move like that shouldn’t create any concerns of disrupting team chemistry.

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