PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Ottawa’s slow start, Philadelphia’s defensive concerns, Boston’s trade deadline approach, comments on several young centers, David Quinn’s future with the Rangers, plus Pittsburgh’s defense situation and their quiet start to the season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

JDGoat: Who is on the hotter seat right now, D.J. Smith or Pierre Dorion?

Can I choose neither of them?  What has played out in Ottawa so far this season can’t be considered all that surprising.  Yes, Matt Murray’s struggles early on were a bit odd which contributed to them getting run out of the rink a few too many times but he has been better since then and the Sens have been more competitive the last couple of weeks.

Heading into this season, everyone knew there were going to be growing pains.  There are six teams in the North Division that have win-now aspirations with Ottawa being the one with an eye on the future.  The divisional reshuffling didn’t do them any favors, that’s for sure.  Dorion has been able to get this far in his rebuilding plan so there’s not much point in changing course now.  Smith has been the head coach for less than 100 games with a roster that isn’t up to par with that of the top teams in the division.  That’s hardly enough time to assess whether he’s really the right fit for the job.

It’s not all doom and gloom for the Senators though.  I think they can be one of the more under-the-radar teams in the second half of the season as their many youngsters settle in and start getting adjusted to day-to-day NHL life.  I expect they’ll win more than many expect down the stretch.  That will be a better measuring stick for Smith’s coaching ability and how Dorion’s long-term plan is coming along.

DarkSide830: What’s Philly’s best solution to their defense issues?

Short of dragging Matt Niskanen away from his ice fishing in retirement, you mean?  When everyone is healthy, I’d try to limit the number of games that Erik Gustafsson and Shayne Gostisbehere play.  They’re both capable offensive weapons but neither are particularly adept in their own end.  You can get away with one in but if both are, they run the risk of some defensive issues (against the upside of a bit more production).

I don’t think there is much they necessarily can do.  Travis Sanheim and Philippe Myers are still pretty young and there are going to be growing pains.  Even Ivan Provorov’s 24, the same age as Myers.  There’s still some defensive development that’s going to come when the core of the back end is as young as it is.  They basically have to ride it out.

What will help is that Sean Couturier’s back.  He’s not a defenseman but any time you add a Selke winner to your lineup, good things are going to happen.  Couturier knows the defensive coverages and knows where to be but perhaps more importantly, where others should be and he can call that out on the ice.  There’s a lot of value in that.  Philadelphia undoubtedly missed his offensive production while he was out but he’ll be a huge difference-maker defensively as well which will give the Flyers a big boost.

VonBrewski: Much to my surprise, the Bruins have done well out of the gate. So, I have two questions. Can they trade John Moore to free up cap space? And who do they target at the trade deadline? Thank you for what you do.

You’re not going to like the answer to the first question.  No, they can’t move Moore to free up cap space.  He’s best utilized as a sixth or seventh option.  In this marketplace, that’s someone making $1MM or so, not $2.75MM for this year plus two more.  That’s just too much money for a depth player and even if they retained half of the contract, they’re not going to find many takers.  Could they move him for another similarly-priced underachiever?  There’s a slightly higher chance of that happening but the likeliest scenario is he sticks around.

As for who they target at the deadline, that’s hard to call at this point considering how few teams are out of the playoff picture at this point.  There’s Ottawa, Detroit, and, well, that’s about it.  Every other team is within five points of a playoff spot so right now, we don’t know who most of the sellers will be.

In terms of what I’d be expecting GM Don Sweeney to look for, I’d still have a proven left defenseman at the top of the list.  They’re getting good results from Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon which lessens the short-term need but if you’re a team with eyes on a long playoff run, can you have two near-rookies in big roles?  I’m sure they’d feel more confident with a more proven option.  Beyond that, there’s still a need for secondary scoring help despite the fact they’ve tried to address it so many times already.

One element that really works in Boston’s favor is the salary cap.  Many contenders are right up against it while they are pegged to be nearly $3MM under it.  Come trade deadline time, that’s worth roughly $13MM in full-season cap hits which would give them a huge boost in terms of being able to actually afford a big-ticket acquisition without having to offset money somehow.  Lots can change and injuries can cut into that in a hurry but the benefit to not adding much in the offseason is that they’ll have the ability to make some in-season pickups without much difficulty.

The Duke: What are your short- and long-term thoughts regarding PLD, Kotkaniemi, Necas and Ingram/Nashville’s goaltending?

Pierre-Luc Dubois – I don’t think this was the preferred destination he had in mind when he wanted out but I like the fit with Winnipeg.  He was pushed into the 1C role by default in Columbus but would have been better served with a more proven option in front of him to help him develop.  He’ll get that benefit now with Mark Scheifele ahead of him on the depth chart.  It may not be great for his short-term numbers but in the long run, he’ll be better prepared for his next chance at being the top center.  I don’t expect that opportunity will be with the Jets though.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi – The exploits of his linemate in Tyler Toffoli have helped keep the spotlight off of him in what has been a fairly quiet start to the season with just a goal and six assists in 14 games.  He has progressed a bit from last season’s disaster which Montreal has to be content with although they quietly were likely hoping for a bigger leap on the offensive front.  He’s still one of the youngest players in the league despite this being his third season (he’s still only 20) so there is plenty of development to go.  I’m not overly confident that he can become Montreal’s top center of the future which they were hoping for when they drafted him third overall in 2018 but with the acquisition and emergence of Nick Suzuki, there’s at least a bit less pressure on Kotkaniemi.  If Suzuki eventually becomes that 1C and Kotkaniemi falls in behind him, the Canadiens should be in good shape.

Martin Necas – He has slowly and steadily progressed so Carolina has to be pleased with what they’re getting from him early on with his ice time up around 18 minutes per game.  A player four years removed from being a first-round pick being in the top six is a more than acceptable development timeline.  I do, however, wonder about his long-term position.  He was supposed to be a key center of the future but things have changed since then.  Sebastian Aho has adapted perfectly to playing down the middle, Jordan Staal is still around, and they added Vincent Trocheck at the trade deadline.  While the latter came at a price tag that was too good to pass up on, there’s an opportunity cost in that it takes away reps at center for Necas.  I’d like to see them find a way to move him to center at times this season, even if it means dropping him down to the third line as, from a long-term development standpoint, they’d be better off if he’s at least comfortable at center in the NHL.

Connor Ingram – While not having him as their insurance policy hurts (he’s in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program), I don’t think it changes much in the short-term.  Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros were going to be the tandem one way or the other this season.  Long term, Yaroslav Askarov is the starter of the future and that still hasn’t changed.  I suspect they were hoping Ingram could be the backup next year and that could still happen – these program entries don’t come with defined absence times so it is possible that he’s back at some point this season.  If not, it pushes them to ask Rinne to stick around for another year or they turn to free agency for a veteran replacement.

MZ311: If NYR ends up firing Quinn (big mistake if they do), who do you see as the long-term successor?

First, I don’t expect David Quinn to be let go.  While the acquisition of Artemi Panarin and the late-season playoff push have raised expectations, this is still not a team that’s quite ready to contend just yet.  There are still plenty of young players going through the ups and downs of developing at the NHL level.  That’s not necessarily a coaching flaw but a reality that most young players face, even the higher-end prospects.  I believe John Davidson and Jeff Gorton are patient enough to recognize that and if they are, there’s little reason to make a coaching change.

But for the sake of the question, let’s say they do.  Is a veteran like Mike Babcock or Bruce Boudreau a good fit for a team that’s still developing a lot of youngsters?  Probably not.  Gerard Gallant is still out there but even he’s a coach that probably benefits from a more veteran-laden team.  None have particularly long shelf lives either and the Rangers will want someone for longer than that instead of a quick fix.  I believe Kris Knoblauch, their coach at AHL Hartford, is their preferred eventual replacement for Quinn but this is only his second season and neither of them are full campaigns.  With Knoblauch not being ready though, it’s hard to see Quinn being let go anytime soon.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the COVID-19 situation around the league, Carolina’s goaltending situation, what’s next for Anthony DeAngelo, Ottawa’s early defensive struggles, surprises in Chicago, and Jim Benning’s future in Vancouver.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

MoneyBallJustWorks: When does the NHL start to get concerned about the # of COVID cases and rescheduling of games?

aloop: Is the league okay with (should it happen) having teams who have played less than 56 games in the playoffs?  Or if the Olympics get nixed again (as was the rumor a few weeks ago) are they okay with extending the season, so long as they can get the 2021-2022 season started on time?

I think they’re already starting to get concerned.  It’s one thing to have a team or two being in a situation where games are being missed but we’re currently at four (Buffalo, Colorado, Minnesota, and New Jersey) and Vegas only ended their pause just yesterday.  It’s not good from a health and safety standpoint both in terms of having more players getting the virus but also in terms of having those teams trying to complete their schedule in a shortened timeframe.  Even with reduced travel, that’s not ideal.  While they undoubtedly knew this was a possibility, they’re certainly not happy with the current state of things.

With regards to the number of games played, the goal, of course, remains for everyone to play 56 games and it’s believed they feel they have a buffer of a week or so after the season that they can reschedule games if necessary.  What helps is that the playoffs are divisional so it’s not as if there is a crossover/Wild Card possibility as there typically is.  Teams in a division where everyone plays all of their games won’t be affected if another division doesn’t unless the league uses that buffer week and delays the start of the playoffs.  If they can’t get all of the games in, they could go by points percentage or even a play-in series in that buffer week.  We’re still more than three months out from the end of the season so this is a decision they hope they won’t need to make for a while.

The rumor of the Olympics being cancelled again for this summer has been debunked and all indications are that they’re going to try to hold them.  Of course, in this environment, things can change in a hurry.  In your scenario, I suppose that could buy them a bit more time to fill out the regular season if need be if teams need to get games in but otherwise, they’re going to stick with the plan.  The priority is getting 2021-22 underway at close to the usual start time and it already looks like a very quick offseason schedule.  Compressing that any further is going to result in some pushback so I don’t see the league wanting to go further in the summer even if they’re able to.

SpeakOfTheDevil: How could things have gotten so bad for the Devils who now have 14 players in COVID protocol? Does the league make adjustments to the protocol now? Who loses their job for this epic blunder?

We’re up to 16 now for New Jersey although they’ve had two come off in recent days.  We highlight it in each of our daily CPRA pieces but I’ll mention it here as well – someone’s presence on this list doesn’t necessarily mean they have the virus.  Of the 16 the Devils have, there’s a pretty good chance most don’t.  Instead, they’re a close contact of someone who does have it so erring on the side of caution, those players are also quarantining.  Optics-wise, it’s not pretty, but this probably isn’t costing anyone their job.  They knew this was a possibility when they decided to make the list available to the public.

From a protocol standpoint, we’ve seen some tweaks in recent days with regards to removing the glass behind the benches to create more of an open environment, further restrictions on in-person team meetings, and even arrival time in an attempt to limit in-arena player interactions though that last one didn’t go over well with the players.  Rapid tests in addition to the usual PCR ones are also under investigation.  More modifications are almost certain to come in the weeks and months ahead as more information is gathered.

mikedickinson: Mrazek out for a bit in Raleigh. Do they make a move or roll with Reimer and Ned in net? The team has been great this season and really think they can make a run.

I don’t think they’ll make a move for a few reasons.  One, things are going well and they could certainly stand to get a longer look at Alex Nedeljkovic to see if he could realistically be the number two option for next season with both Petr Mrazek and James Reimer set to hit unrestricted free agency next season.

The second reason is that Carolina’s system doesn’t exactly allow a lot of shots.  They’re 29th in the league in shots allowed per game at just 26.0 with Vegas and Boston allowing fewer.  The Hurricanes aren’t a team that really needs goaltenders to steal a lot of games of them; they just need adequate goaltending most nights.  Since joining them, Reimer has been capable of giving them that most of the time.

And even if they really could benefit from adding another netminder, there isn’t really anyone available that makes any sense for Carolina.  The waiver market the first three weeks has seen every goalie get plucked up to the point where more teams are just biting the bullet and carrying three on the active roster.  Knowing it’s that much harder to add that depth, the cost is going to be even more prohibitive.

Surgery went well for Mrazek and while there’s no timetable for his return, it certainly sounds like he’s expected back this season.  In the meantime, they’ll have to ride it out with what they’ve got.

met man: Who do you think will eventually wind up with DeAngelo and what type of return, if any will the Rangers get?

I know there was a report earlier this week suggesting something could be done sooner than later but I don’t see it happening.  It’s not that I don’t think there’s anyone interested – there clearly are – but in a normal year, finding a trade for someone with a $4.8MM price tag for multiple years is tricky.  This season, with half the league in LTIR already and others shuffling players back and forth to and from the taxi squad to stay compliant, there are so few realistic trade options out there.

The Rangers certainly don’t have much leverage to command much of a return but they have the right to be very picky.  As DeAngelo is just 24, a buyout on the final year would only be at a one-third rate, not the usual two-thirds.  If they went that route, his cap hit in 2021-22 would only be $383K and 2022-23 would be $883K.  Knowing that, GM Jeff Gorton probably isn’t going to have much interest in putting any significant amount of retention on DeAngelo’s contract to move him knowing the buyout is in his back pocket.  That will also limit their willingness to take a pricey contract back beyond this season to offset money.

When this all happened, Detroit was the team that came to my mind as a realistic trade candidate.  They have ample cap space and DeAngelo is young enough to conceivably become part of their core if everything went well.  And if it didn’t go well, the buyout cost isn’t that prohibitive.  They also have Marc Staal who was DeAngelo’s partner last season when he had a career year so reuniting the two could certainly make a lot of sense for them.  They have some expiring veteran contracts that could eliminate (or at least reduce) the request for New York to retain salary as well; someone like Darren Helm ($3.95MM) comes to mind.  Something like DeAngelo and a few hundred thousand of retention (up to or near what next season’s buyout cost would be) for Helm would at least give New York a roster forward in return which is a little better than having him sit out the rest of the year while waiting for a buyout and Detroit would get a possible short-term upgrade on the back end for a minimal cost.  If a trade happens, that’s the type of move I’d expect.

JDGoat: How do you see the Senators fixing their defence moving forward?. Everybody brought in this past offseason has failed miserably. Do they just have to wait and pray on Sanderson, Bernard-Docker, and the rest of their prospect pool or are there external options that make sense?

They’re off to the right start with Artem Zub starting to play now and Erik Brannstrom finally being recalled.  Are those players long-term fixtures?  Maybe, maybe not.  (They’re certainly hoping Brannstrom is given he was the centerpiece in the Mark Stone trade.)  But I can tell you that Braydon Coburn certainly isn’t in the long-term plans so there was no reason to have him in the lineup ahead of one of those two, especially in a year where they’re expected to go through some developmental growing pains.  They finally saw the writing on the wall when they waived him earlier this week.

I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Pierre Dorion has kicked the tires on more of an impact defender going back to the offseason with an eye on making a trade that’s similar to the Matt Murray one where they brought in a core piece while using some of their pick and prospect surplus although the fact nothing happened tells me they didn’t find the right match.  I expect that to continue to be explored – even if they stay in the North Division basement – as they’re not in a spot where they can be picky about when they can acquire that player.  If they can get a core defender in a trade, they need to do it even if they’re looking at high draft lottery odds.

The long-term plan is to have some of those younger prospects eventually graduate and form a back end with Thomas Chabot, Brannstrom, probably Nikita Zaitsev since he’s signed through 2023-24, and one external trade or free agent signing.  Between now and then, they’re probably just going to use this season to evaluate some of their ‘fringe’ options in players like Zub, Josh Brown, and Mike Reilly to see if any of them are worth keeping around to put with that planned group for a few years from now.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the winners and losers of the NHL’s realignment, players that benefitted the most from offseason trades, Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s scoring record, predictions for several players and the potential for fans to be allowed in arenas this season, what’s next for Boston’s back end, and how one of the top-scoring OHL players last season went undrafted.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

acarneglia: Biggest winners and losers of proposed 2021 divisions?

St. Louis and Colorado find themselves in a nice spot in the West Division.  While they now have to contend with Vegas, that’s the only other team in that group that was in the top eight in the Western Conference.  The battle for the top two spots and home ice in the first round will be tight but there are more games against weaker opponents than there would be with the normal alignment.  I’d also put Columbus and Carolina in the winner category as they get to avoid the gauntlet that is the East Division and move into a group that has more weaker opponents.  Tampa Bay and Dallas are there too but those last two spots should be easier to get than had they been assigned with the other teams in the East.

As for teams that aren’t so fortunate, I have to put Buffalo at the top of the list.  They added Taylor Hall and Eric Staal and while their team has improved, they get to play most of the top teams from the Metropolitan and don’t get to escape Boston while they’re at it.  The three Canadian teams from the Pacific Division lose the opportunity to play against some of the rebuilding and likely less competitive teams and now get to face a potent Toronto team, Montreal who improved considerably, and Winnipeg who is always in the playoff mix instead while playing a higher percentage of games outside of their time zone.  (Even Ottawa has shown improvement although their playoff hopes took a hit with this format as well.)

Eaton Harass: Which player do you feel will benefit most since changing teams this offseason? And how many times do you think Devon Toews said “thank you God” after his trade to the Avs?

I’d go with Max Domi.  He leaves a situation in Montreal where he was being squeezed out of his preferred position to one where it looks as if he’ll have a defined role as their second-line center in Columbus behind Pierre-Luc Dubois.  I could see his ice time moving up to a new career-high as well and he should get plenty of power play time.  On top of that, he wound up signing what amounts to a second bridge deal, one that walks him to unrestricted free agency two years from now.  Assuming he can improve upon his performance with the Canadiens last season (and he’ll have ample opportunity to do so), he should be able to position himself quite nicely for an even bigger payday two years from now.  He probably wouldn’t have had that chance with Montreal.

I’ll toss out a couple of under the radar names as well.  Minnesota’s addition of Nick Bjugstad for next to nothing didn’t garner much attention but he’s going to go from a situation where he would have had a limited role to probably being a middle-six center.  If he can stay healthy and produce, he should be able to restore some value quickly.  The other is Pittsburgh’s pickup of Mike Matheson.  I think moving to a winning environment will help as well as lower expectations.  They can also afford to work him in slowly on the third pairing.  I expect that he should benefit a fair bit from that particular combination.

As for Toews, there are definitely worse situations to be traded to but it’s not like he was leaving a terrible one with the Islanders.  He had just emerged as an impact defender with them and may have even had a bigger role this coming season.  They’ve also been quite competitive despite a roster that isn’t the strongest on paper so it’s not as if he’s leaving a perennial non-playoff team either.  It worked out well for him in the end – he got a long-term deal from a top team – but I think he’d have been just fine sticking around where he was had they been able to afford him cap-wise.

2012orioles: Will Ovechkin lose his chance to catch Gretzky with another shortened season?

It certainly doesn’t help his odds.  He sits 188 away from matching the record so 189 is the target.  Here’s some quick math to come up with some projections.

Ovechkin is averaging 0.61 goals per game in his career and while that has dipped slightly over the last four years, it has only gone down to 0.58 goals per game which still represents a 47-goal pace over a full 82-game season.  He’s going to slow down at some point but that time isn’t now and even when he eventually does slow down, he’ll still be producing at a pretty good clip.

Let’s forecast his goal per game average at 0.5 for this next four-year stint (assuming his next deal runs that long considering he has made it clear that he intends to play in Russia again before his career is over).  That’s a bigger drop-off than before but I don’t think that’s unrealistic as he’s still a top scorer.  Assuming the NHL gets back to an 82-game schedule after 2020-21, that would give him 302 games to work with, or 151 goals.  That’s assuming he stays healthy but it’s worth noting that he has only missed six games over the last six years combined and not all of those were due to injuries.  As far as players go, Ovechkin is quite durable.

That would put him around 35-40 goals behind Gretzky and at that point of his career, it may take two years to get there.  Had 2020-21 been a full season, that target could be shaved by 10-15 goals which could have shortened the number of years to catch him by one which is significant.

For me, it all depends on Ovechkin’s desire to get the record.  If he wants it, he’ll stick around long enough to get it, even if it means him staying with Washington for an extra year than it may have taken otherwise.  But if he wants to go back to the KHL before he’s in his early 40s, then this abbreviated campaign could be the difference.  I don’t think it will be though – Ovechkin will either get it or be more than 10-15 goals behind Gretzky when he decides that his time in North America has come to an end.

The Duke: Crystal Ball Scoutings (e.g., annual goals/points; PP unit; top- or bottom-6, etc.) please for Mssrs. Veleno, Lindblom, Tolvanen, Zadina, Rasmus Sandin & Adin Hill. Thanks in advance.

Joe Veleno: I know he was a prolific scorer in the QMJHL but I don’t see him being a big point producer in the NHL.  Detroit would be happy with him cracking the second line but I like him more as a two-way third-line center with secondary special teams time.  He should be a valuable player for them but that won’t necessarily translate to a ton of production – maybe 15 goals, 35 points per season.  He’s a couple of years from being in that role, however.

Oskar Lindblom: Assuming he is able to get back to the level he was at before his cancer diagnosis (and the contract he got from the Flyers suggests they believe he can), he should settle in around the 20-25 goal mark and around 40-45 points.  (He was on pace for more than that last season but that shooting percentage probably wasn’t sustainable.)  I’m not sure he’ll be able to get number one minutes (which could also push him to the second power play unit more often than not) but he should quickly work his way back onto the second line.

Eeli Tolvanen – I thought he was a sure-fire top-six player when he was drafted but I’m not as sure now after his first two seasons with AHL Milwaukee.  Maybe he’s someone that ultimately plays a lot better with more talented players but at this stage, it’s hard to forecast a top-six role down the road.  He’ll be eased in when he gets to Nashville full time so it’ll be a while yet before he reaches his ceiling.  Right now, 10-15 goals and 25-30 points with secondary power play time would be my projection.

Filip Zadina – Can he drive a line or is he more of a complementary scorer?  That’s the big question and there are two different statlines depending on the answer.  One is a 30-plus goal-getter with consistency, the other is closer to 20-25 per year that could get to 30 once or twice if all goes well.  I’m leaning towards the latter category but he’ll see plenty of top-six minutes and top unit power play time either way.

Rasmus Sandin – A lot depends on Morgan Rielly’s future.  If Toronto can’t afford to re-sign him, Sandin could very well become the lynchpin to their offense from the back end.  That would mean plenty of power play time and with the firepower they have, 45-50 points (10 or so goals) wouldn’t be out of the question.  If Rielly re-signs, however, Sandin becomes more of a secondary power play threat which could dip him more towards the 30-35-point territory.

Adin Hill – He should get his first real NHL opportunity in 2021-22 once Antti Raanta likely moves elsewhere in free agency but I’m not sure he’s a starter down the road.  I’d have him around the 25-30 start mark as his ceiling as a result.

Baji Kimran: What are the chances fans will be allowed in the arenas this season? I’m a full season ticket holder for the Columbus Blue Jackets and I’m starting to think I’ll be watching all the games on television. I’m hoping you’ll tell me I’m wrong.

I’d put the odds at 100% that fans will be allowed in some arenas this season as there are a handful of teams that will have limited capacity to start the season.  A lot will depend on how things go with the virus over the next few months.  Will the number of positive tests start to decrease sharply; how quickly will vaccinations make a difference?  And, of course, each jurisdiction’s respective health authorities have various levels of tolerance for risk; what one city thinks is risky could be considered acceptable in others.

I’m not as bullish that things are going to drastically change in the next couple of months.  While there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, progress is still going to be gradual.  As a result, I expect quite a few teams will ultimately go without fans for the entire year.  And if Columbus happens to be a state that allows some fans, I imagine it would be with limited capacity and with it, perhaps some sort of lottery to determine which season ticket holders get to attend which games.  You could get a chance at watching a handful in-person if all goes well but I suspect you’ll be watching most of the games on television.

VonBrewski: I hear the Bruins are not taking Chara back. So, what does Boston do on the left-side D?

I wouldn’t rule out Zdeno Chara returning to Boston just yet.  While team president Cam Neely has spoken about the desire to get a look at some of their younger options, they haven’t ruled out the veteran returning yet.  Earlier this week, his agent also indicated that Chara’s focus at this time is returning to the Bruins although other teams have reached out as well.

But let’s assume he doesn’t come back for the purpose of this question.  I expected someone to be brought in to try to replace Torey Krug but that clearly hasn’t happened and with less than $3MM in cap room, there isn’t a top-four option available.  I expect Matt Grzelcyk will be tasked with taking on a bigger role and after hovering between 18-19 minutes a night the last two years, he’ll probably come in closer to 22 minutes per game or so.  They’ll also hope that John Moore can hold down a regular spot in the lineup after playing a sparing role last season.

After that, youngsters like Urho Vaakanainen and Jakub Zboril are likely to get a long look with the hopes that one of them can take hold of a regular spot.  It also wouldn’t be shocking for one of their right-shot options to be asked to change sides and a lefty or two could be brought in on a PTO (they were linked to Karl Alzner a couple of months ago) to give them some more options.  It’d be a patchwork fix no matter what though which is why I don’t think they’ve entirely closed the door on Chara just yet.  While he’s not the top-pairing player he once was, he’s still better than some of the options here.

bigalval: Pavel Gogolev was not drafted again and had to sign overseas. I don’t get this because his stats a were great in the OHL. Why did no one draft him or sign him as a player who was not drafted, I watched a lot of video on this kid, he could be a steal. Could have signed him for next to nothing. Any ideas?

There’s no denying that Gogolev’s numbers were quite impressive last season – 45 goals and 51 assists in 63 games with Guelph, good for sixth in league scoring.  But there are a few factors that I think contributed to him being passed on again, aside from simply being Russian which still tends to scare some teams off (even though he moved to Canada early on).

As you alluded to, it wasn’t Gogolev’s first draft-eligible year and his performance in his prior years of eligibility weren’t particularly strong.  Was his jump in production due to him putting everything together, simply being a year older and stronger, or due to chemistry with a particular linemate?  The last two are almost certainly factors and that would have worked against him.

Gogolev has shown that he can score at the junior level but players with that type of production that get passed up on are often viewed as highly flawed in other areas.  It’s safe to infer that the fact he went unpicked again means that teams have similar concerns here.  Yegor Sokolov, another 2000-born prospect, had a similar jump in the QMJHL last year and was picked in the second round by Ottawa.  It’s the all-around game that was the difference.

It’s worth noting that while he has been passed up again in the draft, he did spend time at camps in Detroit and Vegas in the past so he is on the NHL radar for some teams and perhaps down the road he’ll be able to land an entry-level deal as an undrafted free agent.

Interestingly enough, Gogolev was able to find a place to play just yesterday as Vasby of the Allsvenskan in Sweden announced that they’ve signed him.  A good showing there would certainly bolster his value around the NHL.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Rangers’ chances of contention, Tampa Bay’s cap situation, Anaheim’s future, fits for Aleksander Barkov if he wants to leave Florida, World Juniors predictions, who could replace Alex Steen in St. Louis, and what the trade market may look like in this unique season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

gg24: Are the Rangers a true contender?

This season?  I’d say no.  The short-term divisional realignment does not work in their favor.  Boston should still contend while Pittsburgh and Washington always seem to get near the top of the division as well.  Philadelphia is certainly a team on the rise and their fellow New York rivals in the Islanders have shown that even without an overly strong roster on paper, they’ll be in the mix as well.  The Rangers would have to jump two of those teams simply to make the playoffs (assuming they use divisional playoffs without a Wild Card system which would be needed due to the Canadian division).  Then they’d need to knock out two more to get to the final four which would be contender status for this season.  I don’t see that happening.

As much as they surpassed expectations last season, it’s important to remember that a lot of their core is still young and some have very little experience.  A lot went right down the stretch last year but a step back for some of their players isn’t entirely unrealistic.  There is a core in place that eventually should be able to get them to take another step or two forward (if they can keep them all in place as the players on entry-level deals sign richer second contracts) to get to that potential contender status.  But with everything mentioned here, I have a hard time thinking that they get to that tier this season.

decaghuard: Zetterberg contract to Tampa Bay rumor: if true, would this help Tampa Bay gain cap space?

First, a bit of background on where this is coming from for those that aren’t aware of it.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman cited it on a Sportsnet 960 appearance (audio link), noting that it came from Europe and that the speculation is that Tyler Johnson would be involved.  I’ll add that a one-for-one swap of those two contracts doesn’t make any sense for Detroit so I would expect the Lightning to have to add to do that deal.

To answer your question, yes, it effectively would give them some extra cap flexibility eventually, even with adding a little over $1MM in a cap hit with Henrik Zetterberg being on the books for $6.083MM while Johnson is at $5MM.  The kicker is that they still would need to move out another contract of note to try to avoid having to into offseason LTIR.  A deal like this would put them about $3MM over the Upper Limit and that’s why Alex Killorn’s name has been out there in trade speculation for most of the offseason.  If they can move him out and get back into compliance, they can then put Zetterberg on LTIR and have up to $6.083MM to use there.  (Their LTIR space would be that amount less whatever existing cap room they have at the time; they don’t automatically get the full amount.)

That money might be enough to get short-term deals for Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak done which would solve the cap problem for this season.  Of course, moving money at this time has proven to be difficult so even with that possible road map, it’s still much easier said than done.

JustPete: The Anaheim Ducks appear to be a mess this year. Over the cap, lacking a backup goalie, need help on offense and defense, facing the upcoming expansion draft – and the bright spots they do have are young and at least a year or two away.

Is it time for a new GM to lead the team into and out of the seemingly inevitable rebuilding year(s)?

I’m not too worried about Anaheim’s salary cap situation.  Yes, they’re a bit over but they can cut down some roster spots with waiver-exempt players at the start of the season, have Anthony Stolarz as a short-term backup, and then transfer Ryan Kesler to LTIR to free up cap room to bring in a better backup.  At least, that’s the ideal plan although at this point, there aren’t a whole lot of quality backups available; re-signing Ryan Miller may actually be their best option at this point.  There should be enough money left over to add help up front or on the back end as well (but not both).

Clearly, Anaheim’s ownership is content with the state of their retooling at this point considering things are where they are now so I don’t foresee Bob Murray being let go.  But if they decide to change their mind, this season would be the time to do so.

Ryan Getzlaf and David Backes will be unrestricted free agents next offseason while Corey Perry’s buyout cap hit drops back down.  Between those three, that’s over $17MM in savings and there aren’t any pending restricted free agents that will be looking at a big raise that year either.  That will give them ample cap space at a time where few teams have cap room.  They’re well-positioned to try to address some of those issues at that time so there is light at the end of the tunnel.  Between that and their younger players continuing to progress, there’s a path towards getting back to at least playoff contention.

Eaton Harass: Which team is the best fit for Barkov once he inevitably wants out of South Florida?

I certainly don’t expect Aleksander Barkov to ask for a trade even if the Panthers have a tough season.  His contract is up in 2022 and he’ll be eligible for unrestricted free agency at that time so if he wants a change of scenery, he could very well wait to hit the open market and take his pick from what would certainly be no shortage of suitors.  Teams will be in a bit better shape cap-wise by that time and even if they’re not, adding a player of his caliber in free agency is worth the risk of going over in the summer and figuring out how to make it work later.

Of the 32 teams in the league at that time, there are only a handful that wouldn’t be a good fit.  The only ones that wouldn’t are teams that have a lot of spending down the middle with one of the top centers in the league (or two higher-priced ones on long-term contracts).

In the West, Calgary comes to mind.  Johnny Gaudreau (UFA), Mark Giordano (UFA), and Matthew Tkachuk (RFA) are among the expiring contracts at that time with Sean Monahan a year away from UFA eligibility.  Barkov would be a big upgrade down the middle and would allow them to potentially flip Monahan for a good return with Mikael Backlund remaining on the second line and Elias Lindholm staying on the wing.  The 2022 offseason figures to be when that roster undergoes that big change and adding an elite center would certainly bolster their future.

As for the East, my initial thought was Philadelphia with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier among the pending UFAs that summer but if those two re-sign, it probably takes them out of the market.  Instead, I’ll say Detroit.  By then, their young core will be more ready to make an impact and while they’ve added some decent young pivots in Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno, they won’t be top-tier centers in the NHL.  A true number one is one of the big holes they still need to fill.  Adding Barkov would certainly accomplish that.

Barkov, a high-end two-way center, is the type of player that would fit in extremely well just about anywhere though so there may not be a true ‘best’ fit but rather a whole lot of great ones.

@bk656: Who do you think is going to win the 2021 World Junior Championships (assuming there are no issues with players testing positive or anything like that)?

Well, that second part didn’t even hold up long enough for me to attempt to comment on it.  The IIHF revealed yesterday that eight players from Germany tested positive which has forced them into quarantine until the day before the tournament begins.  But with due respect to them, that shouldn’t have any sort of significant effect on the outcome of the tournament.

On paper, it’s hard to go against Canada’s roster which is loaded with a whopping 20 first-round picks among their 22 skaters.  That’s unheard of in this tournament.  There are a couple of concerns, however.  A lot of their players haven’t played in a competitive setting at all this season and their goaltending isn’t the strongest on paper.  But if their defense is as good as it is on paper, they shouldn’t be relying on their goalies to win.

I’m intrigued by Russia.  I expect Yaroslav Askarov to be the best goalie in the tournament and they have some firepower up front, led by Rodion Amirov and Vasili Podkolzin.  The fact that their players have been playing for months now might also help give them a boost early on and offset their typical slow start.

Sweden has been hit by positive tests but they still have a very strong back end.  Their attack isn’t as deep as it could have been and that could hurt them while the USA is down a couple of important forwards that they were hoping to have available.  Both of those teams are still good enough to contend even without their full complement of top players but assuming Canada isn’t hurt by being off as long as they have been, I think it’s their tournament to lose.

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The second half of our mailbag is a busy one with topics including coaching candidates around the league, Nashville’s goaltending situation, the slow free agent market, the future of Kyle Dubas in Toronto, Colorado’s salary cap planning, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

@michiganroman: Who are the top-5 ex-NHLer head coaching candidates?

Gerard Gallant certainly has to be at or near the top of the list.  While it’s notable that his stints with Florida and Vegas didn’t last too long, it’s also important to note that those teams did well after he took over.  The purpose of a coaching change is usually to give a jolt to the current roster in the hopes of improving things and he has shown that he can have an early impact.  Given Gallant’s expansion experience with the Golden Knights, he’d certainly make sense for Seattle.

Mike Babcock and Bruce Boudreau could make sense depending on what a team is looking for.  A team looking for some structure and discipline could turn to Babcock while one that is seeking an offensive boost could look at Boudreau.  John Stevens’ stock may be up after the strong season Dallas had as well.

I know the question asks for five but I have two other names I want to highlight.  One is Jim Montgomery, the former coach of the Stars.  His firing was related to an off-ice issue and following a stint in rehab, he’s back in the game as an assistant with St. Louis.  I could see someone giving him a second chance at some point.

The other one is a bit more off the radar in Kevin Dineen.  He’s currently the head coach of AHL San Diego (the second time Anaheim has hired him to run their farm team) while he has head and assistant coaching experience in the NHL as well as some international experience with Canada’s under-18 team and their 2014 women’s Olympic team.  That’s a rather rare combination to have so I’m a little surprised his name doesn’t surface as often for coaching vacancies.

gg24: Will the Rangers be a contender after just this year’s FA and draft acquisitions?

pitmanrich: How do you judge David Quinn’s first two years as Rangers head coach? How much credit does he deserve for the likes of Strome, DeAngelo, Zibanejad and Panarin’s career years and how much is awful defensive play down to him? Rangers are definitely heading in the right direction under Gorton despite little added this offseason but if they miss the playoffs, will coach Quinn be on the hot seat or does he deserve more time?

There’s one way that the Rangers are a contender this season and that’s if Igor Shesterkin plays like he did in a brief stint last year over the full 2020-21 season.  If that happens and the offense holds up (or even improves with Alexis Lafreniere), they could do some damage.  Having said that, I wouldn’t have them in the contender tier just yet.

I also wouldn’t have them in a spot where Quinn is coaching for his job either.  When the team said they were doing a full-scale rebuild, that typically takes longer than three years even though they’ve been able to take some shortcuts along the way by getting Artemi Panarin and lucking out in the lottery to get Lafreniere.  Unless they take a huge step back, Quinn’s job should be safe.

Mika Zibanejad may be the only one where I’d give Quinn a fair bit of credit for ‘unlocking’ his potential.  He was a good second center before but now, he’s one that appears to be a franchise cornerstone.  Panarin helped Ryan Strome to his career numbers and it’s not as if Panarin’s offensive prowess came out of nowhere.  Anthony DeAngelo certainly has emerged since Quinn took over but it also coincides with DeAngelo getting his first real opportunity.  As for their poor defensive showing, their back end isn’t full of high-quality defenders so I think roster composition and not system problems is more to blame there.

acarneglia: How do you project the Metropolitan Division to shake out? Any surprises? Dark horses?

This one is tough to call now as we have no idea who will actually be in the Metropolitan Division or even if there is a Metropolitan Division following the expected re-alignment to accommodate the all-Canadian grouping that is likely to be required.  So instead, here is some general commentary of how things look.

In terms of the regular teams, I could see Carolina pushing for the top spot.  It’s going to be a year of platooning goalies and they’re used to that structure already while the core they have now is better than the one they had for most of last year.  Philadelphia will be up there and if Tristan Jarry can hold up as the full-fledged starter, Pittsburgh should be as well and Washington can’t be counted out.  I could see the Islanders taking a step back but a Barry Trotz-coached team is always going to be in the thick of things.  The Rangers may not quite be at that level yet, Columbus seems vulnerable after their moves, and New Jersey still has a ways to go, even with some stability between the pipes now.

The Duke: Can you please make long- and short-term sense of Nashville’s goaltending? Thanks.

The Predators seem to be in decent shape on both fronts.  Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros are both signed for next season only and will probably platoon regardless of what format the schedule winds up being.  At that point, Saros will be eligible for restricted free agency and arbitration and will likely get the higher payday and take over as the 1A role unless he really struggles next season.  I wouldn’t necessarily call him a starter but they don’t really need him in that role for too long either way.  Rinne can either take a pay cut to stick around or walk.  If it’s the latter, Connor Ingram moves up and if last season wasn’t an aberration, he could push for a decent-sized workload right away.

Long-term, Yaroslav Askarov is their goalie of the future.  He may be three or four years away from moving into that role so GM David Poile’s hope at this time is that one of Saros or Ingram is the other netminder when Askarov is ready to make the jump.

I wouldn’t put Nashville near the top of the league in goaltending for next season but their tandem is good enough to get the job done most nights.  I believe Askarov has the potential to be one of the top goalies down the road so I’d say they’re in good shape in terms of their long-term situation.

DarkSide830: Updated predictions on top remaining FAs?

There are five top-20 players from our top-50 rankings that are still unsigned so I’ll use that as the cutoff point for ‘top’ players.

Mike Hoffman (4) – He’s willing to take a one-year deal although he may not wind up with top dollar when it’s all said and done.  Something around $4.5MM is possible with Nashville looking like a strong fit.  They have the money and the roster spot to fill while he’d be a huge boost to a power play that wasn’t very good a year ago.

Mikael Granlund (9) – I like New Jersey here for him.  The long-term, big-money deal isn’t happening but a two or three-year pact for him to serve as a veteran mentor and bridge to some of their younger talent makes some sense, especially with his positional versatility.  The Devils can afford to pay more than most teams but the AAV should check in somewhere near the $4MM mark.

Travis Hamonic (13) – I’ve liked Winnipeg as his landing spot going back to the start of free agency and I’m not changing that one now.  He takes a PTO to go to camp with them with an agreement in hand to sign a deal closer to $3MM once Bryan Little is placed on LTIR.

Sami Vatanen (14) – If Philadelphia can get Philippe Myers to take a one-year deal, I think Vatanen on a one-year, $2.75MM or so contract makes a lot of sense for both sides.  If they opt for a multi-year deal for Myers, they price themselves out of signing Vatanen at which point he’d have to look elsewhere.  I could see the Kings looking at him on a one-year deal as well with an eye on moving him at the deadline.

Erik Haula (16) – I’m surprised he’s still out there given that there are quite a few teams that could use help down the middle.  Returning to Florida may make the most sense for him – their depth chart at center isn’t great and they’ve lost some offense in free agency.  A one-year deal around $2MM or so would sting in the short-term but he’d have a chance to boost his offensive numbers and try again next summer with a better platform year to work off of.

lapcheung39: The Chicago Blackhawks spend only under $2MM on both their goalies. Do you think they will add a veteran like Anderson, Howard?

If there was a veteran goaltender out there that could really make a difference, I’d say that Chicago should go and get that goalie.  Craig Anderson and Jimmy Howard aren’t difference-makers at this stage of their respective careers though.  They’re fringe backups and the Blackhawks already have that with Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia who are the early contenders to serve as their goalie tandem next season.

Kevin Lankinen’s name isn’t getting enough attention though.  I may be swayed a bit too much by his performance at the 2019 World Championships but he’s a goalie that can win his team some games on his own which is something that can’t be said for the other two.  While some have him being the odd man out, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he winds up as Chicago’s starter when all is said and done.  Justified or not (and I’m inclined to call it the latter), this is the route that GM Stan Bowman opted to take with his goaltenders.  With what’s left, they may as well see it through with what they have.

jimmertee: How long does Kyle Dubas keep his job?

I think his leash is still pretty long.  The direction that this team has gone isn’t just solely his vision and it seems pretty evident that team president Brendan Shanahan is fully onboard with it.  They’ve fully committed to going the way they have with so much of their cap space tied up in four forwards so unless things really go completely off the rails next season, I don’t sense his job is in any jeopardy.

I also don’t expect things to go off the rails.  I like the addition of T.J. Brodie into their top four defensively and while they’ve certainly gotten older and slower up front, guys like Wayne Simmonds, Joe Thornton, and Jason Spezza don’t have to do much to provide value on their deals.  Considering the minimal cap room they had to work with, Toronto has assembled a relatively good bottom-six group.  If it winds up being an all-Canadian division as it appears it’s going to be, they’re going to be right in the mix.

At some point, yes, the core is going to have to show they can get the job done in the playoffs but I think that breaking point is still a couple of years away.  At that point, Dubas will have had to re-sign or replace Frederik Andersen and Morgan Rielly and that will have a big impact on the roster composition at that time.  If they’re still not over the hump by then, then it may be time to wonder about his future but that’s not on the immediate horizon.

Dtownwarrior78: At the pace they are going now, how long do you see it taking for the Red Wings to truly become potential Cup challengers again? Anytime within the next 3 years or longer? At least competitive for a playoff spot?

It wouldn’t shock me if they’re three years away from a playoff spot, let alone Cup contention.  While lottery luck hasn’t landed them a top pick, there’s a decent core emerging with Lucas Raymond, Filip Zadina, Moritz Seider, and even Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno.  None of them is a franchise player but that’s the making of a solid group, especially with Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha in the fold as well.

My concern is their defense and goaltending, however.  Seider should be good and Filip Hronek is quite underrated.  But after that, there are a lot of question marks.  Between the pipes, there’s no starter of the future in the system.  That’s at least a piece that can be signed in free agency but if they’re envisioning Thomas Greiss as their starter while he’s under contract, they’re not going to be a significant postseason threat.  Until they add another core defender and a proven number one goalie, they’re not going to be in contention, even as their young group of forwards develops and improves.

M34: Avs defense. After the sure-fire big-time contract that Makar is going to get, and with Byram and Timmins expected to take big steps forward this season or next, then adding in the flat or potentially decreasing cap situation, how does Sakic make this work, both on the books and on the ice?

Let’s tackle the second part first.  Conor Timmins could very well start in the minors if Ian Cole shifts over to his off side which isn’t going to help his contract demands.  Bowen Byram is also good enough to start in the NHL but playing time on the left side behind Samuel Girard, Devon Toews, and Ryan Graves is going to be hard to come by.  So in the short-term, the on-ice solution is simply to send them down – Timmins to the Eagles and Byram back to junior.  Eventually, they’ll have to trade someone out (even with Cole’s deal expiring next offseason) but that’s something to ponder next offseason at the earliest.

Timmins is a restricted free agent next offseason like Cale Makar and is probably looking at a one-year deal near the qualifying offer amount or a two-year contract just over $1MM.  That’s not hard to fit in either way.  Byram is three years away from his next contract (four if his deal slides next season) and by then, Erik Johnson and his $6MM will be coming off the books although a big chunk of his money is heading for Nathan MacKinnon.

The biggest question in the short-term is can they afford to re-sign Makar and still have enough to keep Gabriel Landeskog around plus have room to pay a starting goalie?  (Brandon Saad may want to stay there long term but that doesn’t appear palatable unless the captain leaves.)   That will take some careful financial planning but in terms of their other young defenders, Colorado is in good shape for eventually bringing them into the fold and fitting them in under their cap structure.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Philadelphia’s back end, what’s next for New Jersey, Mike Hoffman’s market, the Blue Jackets and LTIR, Washington’s goaltending situation, schedule and playoff discussion (including the oft-speculated all-Canadian division), and how Vegas can navigate through their cap issues.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

ripaceventura30: Did the Flyers do enough to replace the surprisingly retired Niskanen? Myers, Provorov, and Hagg really impressed last year, but are those guys plus Gostisbehere, Braun, Gustafsson, and Sanheim enough of a top-7 to keep this team in Cup contention?

I suspect they’ve done all they’re going to do about Matt Niskanen’s retirement.  I like Erik Gustafsson although his fit on this particular roster is a bit of a headscratcher, especially with Shayne Gostisbehere’s tough season.  Adding a player with a similar profile as Gostisbehere wasn’t something I was expecting but he’ll help.

What will help more is the continued development of youngsters Philippe Myers, Travis Sanheim, and Robert Hagg.  Myers, in particular, has shown signs of being ready for a larger role and he’ll get that opportunity.  Philadelphia’s back end is set up to be more of a by-committee group (with the exception of Ivan Provorov) so despite losing Niskanen and his nearly 22 minutes a game, I think they’ll be okay without him.

Is what they’ve done enough?  I’d have liked to see more of an impact veteran behind Myers than the re-signing of Justin Braun but in terms of preserving flexibility in this particular cap environment, Chuck Fletcher has navigated this reasonably well.  They still have the ability to try to lock Myers up long term and if that doesn’t happen, they may be able to add to their roster either in free agency or by an in-season move.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Do you see the Devils making any other moves this offseason? Perhaps offer sheeting someone as has been rumored?

I think they should have another move or two left in them.  Cap space isn’t an issue (though budgetary restrictions could very well be in play) but they’re a team that could appeal to some free agents looking for a soft landing with the hopes of having more success on the open market a year from now.  There are definitely openings on the wing and there are some good options available at those spots.

As for the offer sheet, my inclination is no.  Yes, prospective GMs were reportedly asked if they’d be willing to go that route so it’s certainly on the radar but there’s a reason they rarely occur.  Players actually have to sign the agreement and that in itself usually puts an end to any talks quickly as they often don’t want to do so.  From there, doing one only makes sense if the amount is low enough for the signing team to justify the cost but high enough to deter the other team from matching.  That’s what hurt Montreal’s offer sheet for Sebastian Aho last summer as it wasn’t high enough to scare Carolina off.

There are definitely vulnerable teams but about the only one I could see getting hit is Tampa Bay if they’re not able to clear out money.  And with all due respect to New Jersey, I just don’t see one of their young players wanting to leave a Cup-winning team for one that’s still in a rebuild.  I do believe the Devils have another move (a free agent signing or a trade to take on a bad contract) to make but it won’t be an offer sheet.

DVail1979: I know the back story for the most part but just how toxic is Mike Hoffman considered? If it isn’t his off the ice issues why else wouldn’t Hoffman be signed already? He is a high-end scorer that could help out most teams. Is he just unwilling to take the Taylor Hall one-year route? Where (if anywhere) do you see him ending up and what kind of contract?

I don’t think that particular incident from his time in Ottawa is really playing much of a factor with Hoffman’s situation.  There has been plenty of interest and he has indicated a willingness to do like Hall and sign for a year.  But if he’s doing that, he’s not taking a bargain price and it needs to be a situation where he’s well-positioned for a good year statistically.

Right now, the market has slowed to a crawl and about the only deals that are getting signed are bargains.  That should change as the schedule information is released as the start of training camp will act as a soft deadline for free agents.  Eventually, trade activity will increase as well which could open up other options.

As for a prediction of what he signs for, I’m going to say a one-year deal in the $4.5MM to $5MM range.  That’s still a small drop from what he made a year ago but that’s second line money and a team would find some value at that price point.  Two teams come up as good fits for me – Nashville if he wants to go to a team with an eye on contending for a playoff spot and New Jersey if he’s looking for a pillow deal at top dollar.  He’d slide in as a top-six winger on either team and would get lots of power play opportunities to try to pad his stats in the hopes of having better luck on the open market a year from now.

Baji Kimran: Why are the Blue Jackets waiting to place Brandon Dubinsky on LTIR? You’d think they’d want to free up the cap space. Is there some sort of advantage to waiting?

Let’s do a quick refresher on the rules before jumping into this one.  In a nutshell, placing a player on LTIR allows a team to spend up to that AAV over the Upper Limit, minus already-existing cap room.  That’s why teams often recall players to get as tight to the cap as possible before putting a player on LTIR to maximize how much they’re actually eligible for.  It’s also why teams like Ottawa and other low-spenders never need to use it even though they have players that can be placed on it.

Now let’s look at the Blue Jackets.  With Pierre-Luc Dubois unsigned, they have a little over $9MM in cap room, per CapFriendly.  If they placed Dubinsky on LTIR now (and offseason LTIR does exist, though rarely used), they wouldn’t actually gain any cap space as their current cap room is greater than Dubinsky’s $5.85MM AAV.

For Columbus to best utilize it, they first have to get Dubois signed.  Assuming it’s a long-term deal that eats up the majority of that cap room, then they can pad their 23-player roster to make it as expensive as possible to get as close to $81.5MM as they can.  Then they can put Dubinsky (along with Gustav Nyquist who is out for several months) on LTIR and send down the extra players that were used to artificially inflate their spending to maximize their cap room.  That’s the advantage of waiting.

Having said that, there’s definitely a scenario where it’s not used at all.  If Dubois only signs a bridge deal that leaves them with a few million in cap room, they won’t need to use LTIR as they’ll still be comfortably under.  They have the option to put Dubinsky on LTIR but they have to need to be in that position first and we’re six weeks or so away from that happening at a minimum.

2012Orioles: Am I not worried enough about Ilya Samsonov being the starting goalie now with Holtby leaving in free agency? He played well last year but will he be able to transfer that performance to more games?

It’s definitely a bit concerning, especially with Samsonov not being able to play in the playoffs.  It’s risky handing the reins to an unproven goaltender and for all of the hype that he has, he has just 26 games of NHL experience.  Unfortunately, their cap situation made signing a top veteran (or re-signing Braden Holtby) a non-starter so it’s a risk they have to take.

I think GM Brian MacLellan did well to mitigate that risk with the addition of Henrik Lundqvist.  Yes, he’s on the downside of his career but he was a starter until the back half of last season.  At the very least, the 38-year-old can handle a platoon workload but if Samsonov falters, Lundqvist could conceivably hold his own playing a bit more than that.  Given the limited money they had available, that’s a pretty good backup plan.

It’s worth noting that Samsonov’s playing time back home was even limited so there’s definitely a question mark on his ability to handle a number one workload.  But with 2020-21 shaping up to be a shortened season and Lundqvist in the fold, it’s not a situation where he’ll be asked to make 50 or more starts so the risk is at least somewhat limited.  If he can get close to 40 starts, I think that’s a workload he can handle without it hurting his performance while being a step up from what he’s used to getting.  I suspect the Capitals would happily take that from Samsonov next year.

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