PHR Mailbag

The frenzy of free agency has slowed considerably in the last several days as teams try to figure out how all the pieces fit together. Alex Pietrangelo is headed to the strip, while Torey Krug takes his place in St. Louis. There are still several difference-makers available on the open market, but who knows when they’ll actually decide on a place to play next season. Months remain before training camps even open, with no expectation of games before the end of the year.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.

If you missed our last one before the offseason began, it was split into two parts you can read here and here. In the first, Brian gave some predictions for some of the Western Conference contenders, while also giving his thoughts on the state of officiating in the NHL. In the second, he correctly predicted that Nikita Zadorov would be elsewhere when the 2020-21 season began, before discussing the future of the NHL and the potential of having a full season with no fans in the buildings.

Topics in this edition of PHR Mailbag include Nikita Zadorov’s future in Colorado, Taylor Hall’s next deal, a struggling Panthers back end, the defensive situation for the Rangers, Detroit’s rebuild, and the uncertainty of next season.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

M34: What’s the future look like for Nikita Zadorov?

This feels like it’s an almost annual question as Zadorov has seemingly been on thin ice in Colorado for a while.  Yet, each time, he winds up staying with the Avs in the same role that he has basically had since he got there – splitting time between a fourth and fifth defensive spot.  This time, it at least feels a bit different.

For starters, Ryan Graves has established himself as a good partner with Cale Makar.  Ian Cole is still signed and Bowen Byram is likely to push for a full-time spot as well.  Those are three left-shot blueliners like Zadorov.  Graves and Cole are clearly ahead of Zadorov on the depth chart and while Byram could start in the minors which would keep Zadorov’s spot on the third pairing open, they probably won’t want to be in a situation where Zadorov winds up starting as the seventh defender either.

The 25-year-old is owed a $3.2MM qualifying offer which is a bit pricey for someone in his role and in this marketplace.  But at the same time, it’s one that they can afford to tender for this season as they have plenty of short-term cap room so I think that option is unlikely.  They’re not in a spot where they have to trade Zadorov but if Byram beats him out for a spot in the lineup in training camp, it’ll be a lot harder to move him then than it is now.  And one year from now with Makar and Gabriel Landeskog needing new deals, Zadorov will become a luxury that they can’t afford.  Accordingly, between that and a relatively soft UFA crop of left-shot defenders, the time is right for Colorado to try to move him out and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him somewhere else when the puck drops on 2020-21.

aloop: It’s highly doubtful that Hall winds up in Arizona, with the internal cap + the Yotes current cap issues. Do you think Hall takes a lower one year salary to join a contender in hopes of a deep playoff run and winning a cup? Or does he sign a longer contract with a team on the rise in hopes that they can make the playoffs consistently and win the Cup during the duration of his contract?

A top free agent (and Hall is the top forward available) rarely signs a short-term contract so I’d put the odds on that happening as fairly low.  But there certainly is a case to be made that Hall could go that route, especially with his comments about how a winning environment will be quite important to him.  If it was to happen though, I could see him signing with a team like Colorado with a higher AAV than he’d get on a long-term deal as there has to be some sort of trade-off for foregoing the job security that a long-term contract would provide.

It’s worth noting that Hall’s value has taken a hit lately as well.  He’s only two years removed from his Hart Trophy in 2017-18 but those two seasons have been underwhelming and the change of scenery from New Jersey to Arizona didn’t exactly give him a boost either.

Let’s say he does the one-year deal with a contender and he winds up in the 50-60 point range again.  Now, Hall enters the 2021 market heading into his age-30 year with three straight seasons of fringe front line production.  The salary cap will still probably be $81.5MM and more teams will be in cap trouble than there are now.  The earnings potential in that situation will be quite a bit lower than it is now so there would certainly be some risk by going that route.  On the other hand, a stronger season with a contender could restore some value so there is a potential benefit to that approach as well.

In the end, it’s hard to pass up the type of security that a long-term deal can provide.  Hall can probably get a max-term deal next month at a rate that’s still a lot higher than the $6MM he had as a cap hit for the past seven years, even in this marketplace.  Maybe he takes a bit less than top dollar to land in a more competitive environment but that’s about the only ‘cut’ he’ll take in free agency.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: What is up with Florida’s defense; on paper it seems like they should be at least average. Is this a problem where each individual part does not fit well together or are there more factors at play?

I’ve wondered that myself for a while now and look no further than the recently-traded Mike Matheson.  At one point, he looked like a long-term fixture on their second pairing but he wound up being used on the wing at times this season and was even healthy scratched to the point where they had to trade him in a swap of cap dumps.

It’s hardly just him either.  Aaron Ekblad is a solid blueliner but hasn’t ascended to that true number one defenseman role that his draft status (first overall in 2014) suggested he’d become.  He’s a top-pairing player but in an ideal situation, he’s more of a number two than a number one.  Keith Yandle remains strong offensively but his play in his own end has always been shaky while Anton Stralman made some sense as someone that could try to stabilize things but that didn’t exactly happen.  The parts are there but it feels like adding one good complementary player could make a huge difference.

Of course, they’re hardly the only team that would want to do something like that this offseason and amidst rumors that the team is trying to cut payroll, acquiring that particular piece could be tricky for new GM Bill Zito.  But if the Panthers want to get out of the middle zone where they’re not good enough yet to contend, they’re going to need to find a way to get that done.

pitmanrich: How do you see Jacques Martin doing as an assistant coach for the defense on the Rangers? Lindy Ruff got a lot of stick but most of their talented d-men are young offensive players plus Staal and Smith’s best days are long gone.  Do they need to sign a veteran stay at home d-man to help suppress the number of shots they give up which surely played a part in Lundqvist’s dramatic loss of form over the last 18 months?

When it comes to assistant coaches, I don’t think they move the needle all that much unless there’s a drastic system change that accompanies it.  Ruff’s departure came from him leaving to take the New Jersey job and not as an overhaul of New York’s coaching staff.  David Quinn is still calling the shots so their system probably isn’t going to change enough for Martin to have any significant effect on them one way or the other.

Are the Rangers ready to push themselves back into legitimate playoff contention now?  That’s the question that needs to be answered to answer the second part of your query.  If they think their time is now, the answer is yes, they should be looking to add a veteran that can shore up their top four.  Staal is better in a limited role and Smith is a possible buyout candidate to free up a bit of cap space this offseason.  Getting someone capable of logging 20 or more minutes a night on the left side would be a huge boost to their playoff chances.

But if the answer is no and they think they’re still a year away with top youngsters Igor Shesterkin, Kaapo Kakko, and Alexis Lafreniere (it’s pretty safe to slot him in here even though he won’t be a Ranger for another week and a half) needing some more development before contention, then I wouldn’t add a veteran defender.  Use next season to get a better read on Ryan Lindgren’s upside as well as K’Andre Miller, Yegor Rekov, and Libor Hajek.  Over the long haul, they’d be better off for it.

CoachWall: Do the Rangers trade high on Anthony DeAngelo? He will cost some big bucks and is blocking younger players. They have so much young talent on defense, they could turn him into a number two center.

Last offseason, the Rangers held all the cards with DeAngelo and basically forced him into taking just above his qualifying offer.  A 53-point season was quite a response and with salary arbitration eligibility now, he has put himself in a great situation to land a pricey contract that New York may have difficulty fitting into their current salary structure.  Trading high would make some sense but I’m not sure the market for him is going to be all that strong.

Was his season a sign of things to come or a situation where everything broke his way and his production will dip closer to his 30-point year in 2018-19?  That may give some teams some pause.  He’s also someone that two other teams had already given up on him (Tampa Bay and Arizona) which will have some teams wondering what happened.  That’s not to say that a deal won’t happen and there will be some interest but his market might be as robust as it might seem.  At the very least, DeAngelo’s fate will probably have to be decided after Minnesota makes as a decision on Mathew Dumba.  With the longer track record and his ability to play a bit higher in the lineup than DeAngelo, he will be the prime target for teams looking to upgrade the right side of their defense.

I’m also not certain that he’s blocking anyone at the moment.  While the Rangers have Miller, Rekov, and Hajek that could make a push for playing time next season, they’re all left-shot defenders so DeAngelo’s presence shouldn’t necessarily affect them too much.  Yes, Nils Lundkvist is in the system as well but he’s staying there for the upcoming season.  Once he signs, then DeAngelo may be blocking him (with Jacob Trouba and Adam Fox being the other righties) but we’re at least a year away from that happening.

There isn’t a pressing need to move DeAngelo but if they can use him to fill their second center spot, it would probably be a deal worth making for GM Jeff Gorton.

tigers22: Would a trade of Montreal’s #1 draft pick to Detroit for Anthony Mantha work for both teams? Give Montreal another scorer and Detroit another draft pick for the rebuild.

I like the deal from Montreal’s perspective but I don’t see a great case from Detroit’s point of view unless Mantha’s asking price is way too high.  The Canadiens briefly held the ninth-overall pick but that’s no longer the case.  Instead, they’re picking 16th having upset Pittsburgh in the Qualifying Round.

Mantha’s free agent case is a bit of a tricky one considering he has missed a lot of time due to injury over the last two seasons.  He has been quite productive when healthy but making a long-term commitment to someone that has missed a fair bit of time lately does carry some risk.  And while the 26-year-old produced like a top liner this season, his numbers have been closer to that of a second liner.

So let’s put Mantha in a 45-60 point range to allow for a bit of improvement still if he stays healthy (he played at a 72-point pace this season so the top end may even be a bit low).  Is Detroit going to get someone better than that with the 16th pick?  Chances are that a player or two picked after that will get to that level but the odds of getting a top-six forward in the middle of the first round aren’t great.  Now if you’re Detroit, you’re looking at a talent downgrade which isn’t ideal.

Mantha’s still young enough to be part of Detroit’s core group when they come out of this rebuilding phase so he’s someone they should be building around, not sending away for a lottery ticket that will be a long away from getting to Mantha’s level.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Winnipeg’s upcoming offseason, underachieving veterans in Philadelphia, Steven Stamkos’ future in Tampa Bay, what’s next for Tuukka Rask, big game shopping for Colorado, Vancouver’s free agents, and the consistent inconsistency of officiating.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

Dougster: What do you see the Winnipeg Jets doing?

I don’t think they’re going to do a whole lot.  I know that seeing Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers in trade speculation has some thinking that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is going to make some big changes to his roster but that goes against his general philosophy.  Since going to Winnipeg, slow and steady has been the mantra with trying to add a key rental when the time is right.  I can’t see that changing and with Laine’s contract expiring next offseason, they’re probably going to try to limit their multi-year commitments.

So with that in mind, I think their top priority will be trying to add some center insurance.  Bryan Little’s future is murky at best and while Blake Wheeler can shift to the middle, doing so takes him off their top line.  Andrew Copp and Adam Lowry have shown flashes of being ready for a bigger role but they’d feel a lot better with someone more proven in there.  A rental player makes a lot of sense here and I wouldn’t be surprised if they inquired about Paul Stastny.  He’s familiar with Winnipeg’s system and had some success there before while Vegas will likely need to clear money if they extend Robin Lehner.  If they add a veteran and Little is able to play after all, too much center depth is a ‘problem’ that every team would like to have.

If they’re going to add anyone on a multi-year deal, it’s probably on the back end.  While Neal Pionk had a strong first season, he was effectively the only impact replacement for Jacob Trouba, Ben Chiarot, Tyler Myers, and Dustin Byfuglien.  The Jets patched things together this season but some more stability there would go a long way.

Beyond that, I think they’ll try to clear Mathieu Perreault’s deal (perhaps as salary ballast in a trade for one of the above elements) but with many other teams wanting to clear money, that’s far from a guarantee.  They’ll need to sign a new backup goalie (there are plenty of pure backups available in free agency) and fill out the bottom of their forward group.  I think they can do that without taking a core player away and that’s how Cheveldayoff will likely try to play it.

ripaceventura30: What is a realistic return for Shayne Gostisbehere and who might be interested in turning his career back around? Is JVR a buyout candidate or do the Flyers hang onto him for one more year and hope he gets back to his scoring ways/gets dangled as an expansion draft piece?

Gostisbehere’s case is a tough one.  Moving a high-priced player in this current marketplace is going to be tricky.  Moving a high-priced player (Gostisbehere has a $4.5MM AAV) with three years left on his deal that couldn’t crack their regular lineup down the stretch and in the playoffs is going to be much tougher.  There is definitely offensive upside and his mobility is a plus as more teams look to have their defenders join the rush so this isn’t a situation where no one would want him.  But the return Chuck Fletcher would probably have to settle for would be underwhelming.  A second-round pick and a depth defender (to offset some salary) would be my guess at a best-case scenario and their cap situation is going to make it difficult to try to hold onto him in the hopes that he rebuilds his value next season.  I could see New Jersey and Detroit being among the teams with interest, ones with vacancies on the back end and enough cap room to take on what’s currently a bad contract without too much concern.

I don’t see Philadelphia buying out James van Riemsdyk.  He hasn’t lived up to his contract but he still has 46 goals over his two seasons which isn’t terrible by any stretch either.  A buyout would cost them over $2.77MM for two seasons, then over $4.77MM in 2022-23 before dropping to $1.778MM for three years after that.  Can they sign a 25-goal winger for the difference between his buyout cost and his $7MM cap hit?  I know they want to free up some money but that’d be a tough way to do it.  At this point, they either trade him with significant retention or, more likely, hold onto him and hope he rebuilds his value.  If he doesn’t, he’ll be left unprotected next summer.

@warrenchris: Where will Stamkos be playing next year?

It’s well-known that Tampa Bay has to cut some significant salary for next season and whoever they want to move is going to have some form of trade protection.  While players like Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde, and Tyler Johnson have been the speculative casualties, I suppose it’s possible that they could look at how they’ve performed without Stamkos and try to move him instead.  Anthony Cirelli would step into a bigger role down the middle behind Brayden Point and they’d probably still be contenders.

But from a value standpoint, there probably isn’t a worse time to try to move him.  Moving expensive contracts is going to be tough this offseason given the current landscape and he’s signed at an $8.5MM cap hit for four more years.  The mystery surrounding this injury that has kept him out for the entire postseason doesn’t help either.  Original indications were that he was to have been back by now but he’s not progressing as well as anyone would have hoped.  That’s a major red flag for other teams.  If you’re going to commit to a pricey player, you at least want to know that he’s healthy and that there’s no danger of recurrence down the road.  He’s now skating with the team at least but that’s not the same as game action.

In a situation where they simply have to move some players out, nothing can be ruled out entirely.  But even though they’ve done well without him, it’s hard to imagine Stamkos being anywhere other than Tampa Bay next season.

sovietcanuckistanian: is Rask done in Beantown? Publicly, team/players have come out in support, but you get the feeling there is some angst/animosity from some people partly feeling that he might have bailed. I mean he’s still a top-5 goalie (I think), but his cap hit is a bit high. Do you think he gets moved or do they just run out the Halak/Rask tandem again and let their contracts run out? Thanks in advance.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some in the organization would like to see him moved despite their public proclamations to the contrary but doing so would be trickier than it might seem.  For starters, he has a 15-team no-trade list which takes half of the league out of the equation right there.

Let’s look at Rask’s numbers from the past two seasons.  And I’m not talking about his sterling GAA and SV% from 2019-20 but rather his games played totals.  This season, he played in 41 regular season games before the pandemic hit.  The year before that, he played in 46 contests.  That’s not a lot of appearances for a starting goalie, especially one that has a $7MM price tag.  The tandem works for Boston with Jaroslav Halak because he’s someone that’s considered an above-average backup.  Not many other teams with a potential vacancy between the pipes are in that situation and of those, how many have $7MM to spend?  2020-21 feels like it’s going to have a lot of back-to-backs with the NHL wanting to play 82 games even with a delayed start so I don’t think there would be a huge market for his services.

Let’s look at the other side for a minute.  Who would replace Rask?  It’s not as if there are a lot of starters available in free agency nor are there legitimate number ones available on the trade market.  They could flip Rask for Marc-Andre Fleury to change things up for the sake of change but I don’t think that makes them a better team and they’re in win-now mode.  Unless they can land a legitimate starter that’s going to be around for a few years (such as Jacob Markstrom in free agency), they’re probably best off sticking with a tandem that they know works for them.

Eric Lord: Do you think the Colorado Avalanche will make a run at Alex Pietrangelo? They really struggled defensively against Dallas after Johnson went down in Game One. They have the cap space and he would provide them with an experienced, top pair defenseman that could lead them to a Cup.

In terms of a fit, Pietrangelo to Colorado makes a ton of sense and he’d undoubtedly vault them into contenders.  But while you mention that they have the cap space, it’s only in the short term and that’s going to limit them in this pursuit.

Let’s jump ahead a year to the 2021 offseason.  They currently have $40.45MM in commitments to eight players which is manageable.  But Gabriel Landeskog needs a new deal that will check in considerably higher than his $5.571MM cap hit.  Cale Makar’s contract is up and at this point, you can probably add a zero to the end of his current $880K price tag.  Philipp Grubauer’s deal is up which means they’ll need a starting goalie as well.  Can they afford to do those three things, sign Pietrangelo, and fill out the rest of the roster under a cap that’s probably going to be around the $81.5MM it is now?  I don’t think they can.

If Pietrangelo is willing to sign a one-year deal at an inflated price tag (think more than $10MM) to go to a contender and then go for a long-term contract in 2021, Colorado has a chance.  In that scenario, I’d probably make them the contender for his services.  But that’s a lot of risk on Pietrangelo’s end as an injury could cost him millions.  Even in a deflated cap environment, he should be able to command a max-term, top-dollar contract next month; he’s that talented of a blueliner and those rarely hit the open market.  He’d fit in great with Colorado but I don’t think they can fit him in beyond 2020-21 without taking away another core piece first.

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The Stanley Cup Finals are right around the corner and the offseason will follow quickly. With finances devastated over the last few months and teams looking at either the flat league-mandated salary cap or an even lower internal one, there should be plenty of player movement over the next few months. With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.

If you missed our last one, it was split into two parts which you can read here and here. The first was focused solely on the New York Rangers given they had just won the first-overall pick and answered questions regarding the future of Henrik Lundqvist and potential second-line center targets. The second part was more wide-reaching, with topics including Ottawa’s potential cap space, Alex Pietrangelo’s future and the Detroit Red Wings offseason plans.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. We’ll try to get to everything when the mailbag runs this weekend.

After last week’s mailbag focused on the Rangers, topics in this edition include postseason contenders, the Hurricanes, playoff overtime, Ottawa’s cap space, the captaincy in St. Louis,  Detroit’s willingness to leverage their cap room, the short-term future of the NHL’s signature in-season events, and free agency.

DarkSide830: Cup favorite as things now stand?

Whoever comes out of the West.  I have concerns about each team in the East – Boston for their goaltending with Tuukka Rask gone, Philadelphia for their struggles against Montreal, the Islanders for their lack of firepower, and Tampa Bay for how things went last year.  Don’t get me wrong, they’re all strong teams but I don’t think they match up as well against the top two teams in the West in Vegas and Colorado.

The Golden Knights don’t have many weaknesses.  Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury are a solid goaltending tandem, their back end was very quietly bolstered at the trade deadline with Alec Martinez.  They still don’t have that elite scorer but they have multiple lines that are strong offensive threats at all times.  That was a recipe for success just two years ago and they’re better now than they were then so they should get by Vancouver this round.

As for the Avalanche, their goalies (Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz) aren’t as well-known but are solid while they also have a strong back end.  They have the top-end firepower while Nazem Kadri has been quite sharp so far to deepen their attack.  Dallas might be able to slow them down for a bit like Arizona did but as they did against the Coyotes, their offense will come around and take over.

That would set up a very interesting Western Conference Final with the winner being my pick for the Stanley Cup favorite.  Right now, I’d give a slim edge to Vegas but both would be justifiable contenders.

mikedickinson: The Canes now pick 13th thanks to the Patrick Marleau trade. Do they trade that for an established guy? Gotta figure Justin Williams will retire and will need to be replaced.

I don’t see them trading that pick.  They’ve already moved their own first-round pick this season to pick up Brady Skjei at the trade deadline and he’s an established player.  If they still had both picks, I’d think that one would be in play but I suspect the Skjei trade was done knowing that they’d have another first-rounder at their disposal to use at the draft table.  (They probably didn’t think it’d be as early as 13th though.)

If Williams retires (a reasonable expectation), they don’t have to get a top forward to replace him.  Instead, they can look to the open market and go bargain shopping.  The 30-35-point players that bounce between the second and third lines could be squeezed out as teams look to sign/keep their top players and fill out of the rest of their roster with cheaper options.  That could push the price tag of those depth wingers down and present a chance for Carolina to nab one at a reasonable rate and get a replacement for Williams at a reasonable price.  Failing that, Ryan Dzingel would get a chance to earn back his full-time spot in the lineup.

crosseyedlemon: Could anything be more idiotic than having teams play 3 or more OT periods in early playoff rounds? One OT period followed by a shootout should be the format for every round with the exception of the championship finals.

I understand where this is coming from given how crazy the Tampa Bay-Columbus game was and how it postponed Carolina-Boston.  If there was ever a year to do such a proposal, it was this one given the constraints of only using one arena per conference.  It wouldn’t have been a popular choice but it would have been understandable.

Personally speaking, I don’t ever want to see a shootout in the playoffs.  I could do without them in the regular season, to be honest.  A quick skills competition should not be dictating the outcome of a game, especially when the stakes are higher in the playoffs.  If teams have to drag it out for multiple overtimes, it’s their own fault for not scoring earlier.  From a fairness perspective, it’s the same teams that are punished; it’s not like it hurts one more than the other.

I should mention that I enjoy the games that drag on and on.  As a baseball game gets deeper and deeper into extra innings, I’m hooked.  If a basketball game gets to multiple OT’s, sign me up.  They occur rarely enough that they’re special when they happen.  That’s to be celebrated, not legislated out of the game by bringing the shootout into the playoffs.

JDGoat: Does Ottawa use their cap space to bring in other teams RFA’s or do they just look to bring in bad contracts with assets attached? What could some targets be for these scenarios?

I don’t see them targeting restricted free agents via offer sheet or trade unless they’re getting someone that they think can be a part of their long-term core.  They know their crop of young players and prospects are going to get expensive fairly quickly so adding another potentially expensive player to the mix for the long haul may not be the best move.  They need to see how the likes of Erik Brannstrom, Josh Norris, and company pan out and they’re a couple of years away from getting a legitimate read on those players.

I think the better target for the Sens is transition players.  Adding a veteran or two that can work with their young core in the short term and can be eventually flipped is probably the better way to go.  The prospects that are on the cusp get some more time with AHL Belleville (assuming the AHL gets up and running) and the veterans, while likely overpaid, can still contribute.

Loui Eriksson in Vancouver is a logical target.  His salary is lower than his cap hit (which is notable given their payroll parameters) and the Canucks will be motivated sellers.  He’s not worth his $6MM AAV but he can still kill penalties and chip in a bit offensively, especially if he gets a bit more playing time.  If Anaheim needs to part with David Backes ($4.5MM with Boston retaining $1.5MM) to free up money, he’d give them some extra grit and would only be a one-year commitment.

Of course, the intention here is that the assets to take on those contracts is the key to the trade, not the veterans themselves.  If Ottawa can pick up a key pick or prospect for doing so and then potentially flip the veteran down the road for a small something, that would be a good use of their cap room.

vincent k. mcmahon: If Petro doesn’t resign with the Blues who do see being the next captain? Or do you think they would roll with 3 assistant captains?

It’s certainly going to be difficult for St. Louis to re-sign Alex Pietrangelo.  Yes, the flattening of the salary cap may ultimately limit the number of suitors that can go after him in free agency but it’s also going to make it even harder for the Blues to free up the cap space to sign him.  I expect there will be mutual interest in getting something done but they will have to part with a couple of regulars to do so.  With a lot of teams looking to shed salary, it may be tough to get value for whoever they part with.  While it doesn’t seem possible on the surface, I have a hunch they’ll find a way to get something done which would make the question moot.

However, if Pietrangelo does move on, Ryan O’Reilly makes sense as a logical replacement.  Looking at their other two alternates, Vladimir Tarasenko’s future seems to be in question with his recurring shoulder issues while Alex Steen is a candidate to be one of the veterans getting moved out to free up cap space.  Meanwhile, O’Reilly still has three years left on his deal and has fit in seamlessly over his two years with St. Louis.  I think they’d be comfortable bestowing the ‘C’ on him if they wind up having to make a captaincy change.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include financial sustainability during the pandemic, what Ottawa might do with their multitude of draft picks, potential upsets in during the NHL’s return, and the top offensive threat beyond the potential top two picks in the draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, look back at last weekend’s mailbag.

Gbear: How long can the NHL realistically stay financially viable in all of its markets if fans cannot attend games in person even heading into the 20/21 season and thus not able to provide NHL teams with gate revenues?

I think we’re a while away from teams starting to show significant financial cracks.  While the NHL has shown a willingness to get back to playing now without fans, there’s a big difference between biting the bullet to finish the season and award the Stanley Cup and starting up 2020-21 without fans.  I don’t sense there’s a willingness from a lot of owners to try to get next season going in front of empty buildings.  That’s not viable for even the teams with the best financial backing.

If there aren’t any games for a while, the payroll costs are naturally going to be significantly reduced.  As part of the new CBA Memorandum of Understanding, teams will be required to pay 8.1% (15/186ths) of a players’ salary by the end of October if there aren’t any games scheduled before November 15th and it appears we’re heading in that direction.  But until there are games to play, that’s it for player payroll which is by far the steepest cost.

This situation is far from sustainable and is hardly ideal which is why this postseason is going to be a one-off, not a sign of things to come.  Once it finishes, I wouldn’t expect NHL play to resume until at least some fans are allowed in the building.  With that will come some revenues to offset the payroll expenses and teams should be able to scrape by until then.  They have early access to this season’s escrow to help bridge the two gaps in the meantime.  It won’t be pretty for a while but the viability of franchises shouldn’t be in jeopardy for a little while yet.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Do you see the Sens making any draft day trades with their draft capital? I know many are hoping for 3&5 to be packaged for #1 which I don’t see but could they move the Islanders pick (assuming it ends up being this year’s) for a roster player? With the cap crunch, that or one of their many 2nd’s could land them a decent roster piece.

When it comes to their top couple of picks, I don’t see Ottawa doing anything with those.  They didn’t get the lucky draw in the lottery but two top-five picks is still quite good.  They’re going to land two core pieces to their promising crop of youngsters and with them focusing on the long-term picture, doing anything to try to shortcut that isn’t a great idea.

The Sens are in a position where they can leverage their cap room to add other assets but with 13 picks in the draft, they can also part with some to add younger players that fit better with their core.  I wouldn’t entirely rule out the Islanders pick being moved in the right trade like I would their other two firsts but I suspect GM Pierre Dorion would like to hold onto that as well.

However, they have four second-round picks and it’s hard to see them using them all.  Perhaps they package two to move up to the back of the first round and land someone that’s high on their list but sliding.  It’s possible that they trade out with one although it’s worth noting they already have three second-rounders next year which lessens that likelihood a bit.

But even more likely would be using one of those as part of a deal to land a player.  While the speculative focus of cap casualties is on the higher-priced players now, there are likely to be others moved for what seems like below-market value because of a potential cap crunch down the road, because they can’t move out a high-priced player, or even expansion planning a year from now.  Second-round picks seem like a good currency for those moving in that situation and four of them gives the Sens plenty of ammunition if they want to try to make that type of move.

acarneglia: What teams should be on upset watch?

In terms of the Qualifying Round matchups, there aren’t many that would be truly considered as upsets if the underdog won.  Nonetheless, I think Nashville is vulnerable in the West in their matchup against Arizona.  The Coyotes are a strong team defensively and the Predators’ offense has been hit or miss this season.  Arizona also has the edge in goal and with the benefit of rest and the abbreviated training camp, Taylor Hall may be able to produce closer to expectations; with him, Phil Kessel, and Clayton Keller, they have enough firepower to do some damage.

Out East, I’ve talked about the Rangers being a threat before which would make Carolina vulnerable.  Having covered that a few times recently, let’s look at the 7-10 matchup between the Islanders and Panthers.  On paper, Florida should have been a lot better than they were this season and Sergei Bobrovsky showed a year ago that he’s capable of stepping up and playing well in a series.  If he can do that here, New York could be in some trouble, even if their defensive structure can keep Florida’s attack largely at bay.

In terms of top-four seeds that will be playing round-robin games to determine their positioning for the postseason, Dallas could be a team that is ripe for an upset depending on the matchup.  Their offense is talented on paper but struggled mightily during the regular season.  Their goaltending was good enough to keep the Stars at the top end of the conference during the year but in a short series, continued sluggish performances from their top scorers could be problematic in a hurry.

Pieters: For our dynasty league I have the misfortune of having the 4th pick. One through three are expected to be Lafreniere, Askarov (goalies are gold) and Byfield. Scoring cats for skaters are Goals (G), Assists (A), Points (P), Plus/Minus (+/-), Penalty Minutes (PIM), Powerplay Points (PPP), Shots on Goal (SOG), Hits (HIT). Trying to figure out which of the following would be best at 4th, Marco Rossi, Lucas Raymond, Tim Stutzle, or Alexander Holtz? All of the top prospects from previous drafts were picked up. The only one that might be worth considering is Victor Soderstrom.

First, let’s rule Soderstrom out of consideration.  While he showed a bit more offensive upside with Brynas this season, he’s not going to be a big point producer in the NHL and hits alone won’t be enough to offset that.

Rossi may very well wind up with the most points out of the four draft-eligibles you listed but there are some drawbacks to consider.  He’s not the most physical of players and he’s a pure playmaker which will keep his shot total a little lower.  Raymond may not have quite the upside in terms of overall points that Rossi might but he’s a more gifted shooter although again, he’s on the smaller size which limits the hit potential.  Holtz is a little bigger but the overall upside isn’t as high as those two so I’d take him out of the mix.

That leaves Stutzle.  Like Rossi, he’s more of a playmaker for now but he has the frame to put on enough extra strength to make his shot more of a weapon and he has shown no hesitance shooting in the DEL.  I also think he’s more likely to be deployed in all top offensive situations unlike someone like Byfield who may be most valuable as an all-around player which isn’t as important in most fantasy leagues.  I’d go with Stutzle in this situation as he is going to get to the NHL quickly and should pad plenty of stat categories when he gets there.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Chicago-Edmonton series, Jack Eichel’s future in Buffalo, forecasting the television picture for the NHL’s Return to Play, and Lindy Ruff’s hiring in New Jersey.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s mailbag.

Mark L: When play stopped, the Oilers offense was looking very strong while the Blackhawks defense was a mess. Because of the long suspension of play, Chicago will have Calvin de Haan back for sure and could have Brent Seabrook back as well.

They also have some younger, talented players who won’t have played a gruelling campaign before jumping into a playoff. If Corey Crawford can stay healthy and in net, what are the chances this is a more competitive series, perhaps one Chicago can steal, than it looks to be at first glance?

With teams being off for as long as they have been, every series has a chance to be more competitive than it may seem on paper.  Good teams can come out of the gate slow in the regular season and this is a longer layoff than a typical summer so there are bound to be some surprises along the way.

It’s interesting that you mention Crawford as I think goaltending will be a huge part of this series but it’s Edmonton’s goaltending that could very well dictate the outcome.  When he’s on his game, Mikko Koskinen can be a real difference-maker.  On the flip side, when he’s off, he’s really off.  If he’s not sharp out of the gate, that’s one area that Chicago can exploit.  Mike Smith is a capable backup that can steady things in that instance but he’s probably not going to steal games at this point of his career.

Crawford’s top level isn’t as good as Koskinen’s but the inconsistency isn’t as sharp either (which is good as turning to Malcolm Subban wouldn’t be ideal given the year he had).  If Chicago can get the better goaltending, they’ll have a decent chance in this series unless Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl steal the show and with how they performed during the regular season, they can win games on their own even if Crawford outperforms Koskinen.

Getting de Haan back will certainly help defensively and on the penalty kill but I don’t know if they’d want to risk putting Seabrook back in.  He’s just starting to skate now after being off since mid-December and he was struggling before being taken out.  Even if Seabrook does play, it’s hard to see him getting more than a spot on the third pairing which will limit his chances of making any sort of tangible impact in this series.

Baji Kimran: Do you think Buffalo is considering moving Jack Eichel? If so, what would they want in return, High-end talent that is already in the NHL or a slew of draft picks (#1’s, #2’s)? Finally, if they were open to moving Eichel, don’t you think the team that wins the Alexis Lafreniere sweepstakes would be smart to try to acquire Eichel?

Eichel’s comments back in May where he indicated that he is “fed up with losing” certainly raised some eyebrows around the league and evidently caught the attention of Sabres ownership as they decided to change course with the firing of Jason Botterill as GM with Kevyn Adams taking over as his replacement.  I think Adams’ mandate is now to change things up while still building around Eichel, not moving him out though.

With all due respect to Adams who has clearly done enough to impress ownership to give him the nod, this will be his first crack at being a part of management.  Having a raw rookie in the GM role is risky enough let alone asking him to try to find the right trade for your franchise player, disgruntled as he may be at the moment.  It’s not a good time to move him, especially with his AAV of $10MM being near the top of the league at a time where teams are going to be in tough for cap space.

But for the sake of discussion, let’s say Adams was considering it.  Moving him for another established top talent doesn’t really move the needle much – now you’d have a different top player with a supporting cast that still needs some work.  So about the only way moving Eichel would make some sense is if Buffalo decided to do yet another rebuild with the target return being two or three core assets (top draft pick, top prospects, or young NHL players with top-half potential) plus some veteran salary ballast similar to what Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Sobotka were in the Ryan O’Reilly trade with St. Louis.  That doesn’t seem like a particularly appealing route for the Sabres to take at the moment so I’d be very surprised if Eichel is on the move.

M34: Are all the remaining games going to be nationally televised?

This is something that is being discussed now that the ratification is done with a schedule being set and an answer is expected in the very near future.  So with the risk of this being proven incorrect in a hurry, here is my prediction.

Exhibition games, the play-in round, and the round-robin games for the top four teams in each conference will be shown regionally with national networks being allowed to convert a handful to the wider coverage level.  The league has gone out of its way to call these games non-playoff contests and I suspect part of the reason is that they want to use this for inventory for regional sports networks to make up for some of the lost games as a result of the effective cancellation of the rest of the regular season.  (Of course, the stats are counting as playoff stats which goes against their long-stated assertion that these aren’t playoff games but let’s play along with the league here anyway.)

I also wouldn’t be shocked if some RSNs will get the ability to show games in the first round to also help make up the lost game inventory.  I could also see those games getting national coverage and while that seems somewhat redundant, it wouldn’t be that hard to do.  A world feed will be produced with individual networks doing their own graphics.  Accordingly, it would be easy enough for NBC (in the United States) or Sportsnet (in Canada) to have their own commentators doing the game nationally while the RSN has the same video feed but with the local broadcast team.  It’s a bit of a compromise and there has been plenty of that lately with the CBA MOU and Return to Play protocols getting finalized.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Thoughts on the Lindy Ruff signing by NJ and where do you think some of the more prominent names could end up going?

I was a bit surprised by the hire as I figured he’d be behind some of the more prominent names but I don’t mind it.  Ruff is not the long-term coach that’s going to steer New Jersey out of their rebuild, into contention, and onto a Stanley Cup championship.  Instead, he’s what I call a ‘transitional coach’.

Ruff’s reputation is that he gets the best offensively out of teams although the defensive play leaves something to be desired.  But right now, that’s okay.  I’d rather have that than the opposite even though that would normally be the smarter route for a team in their situation.

The strong point of this roster is their offense.  They have a pair of top picks in Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes who have plenty of skill but have been hit or miss at times in their early NHL careers.  Their top priority in a coaching search should have been finding someone who is best equipped to help these two develop.  Ruff should be able to help do that.

Are they going to struggle defensively?  Sure.  But that was going to be the case no matter who they installed as head coach unless they went to a pure trapping system and tried to win games 2-1.  That wouldn’t have been ideal for their two hopeful franchise cornerstones though.  The Devils have some talent on their back end but some of those defenders are more offensive-minded than defensive-minded so a change to a more up-tempo style may benefit them as well.

A few years from now, Hughes and Hischier have established themselves as offensive stars in an ideal world and the focus can then shift towards really shoring up the back end.  (By then, they’ll also hope to have their goaltending situation figured out as either Mackenzie Blackwood has established himself as a starter or someone else will be in that role.)  By then, they should be back in the mix for a playoff spot and will probably have made it once or twice.  That will be the time to look for the longer-term coaching option but by then, Ruff should have helped steer the franchise in the right direction.

It’s difficult to forecast where some of the other prominent names will end up as right now, there aren’t any vacancies.  With cash flows being much more limited in the short term, it’s quite possible that there aren’t any openings for coaches like Gerard Gallant, Mike Babcock, and Peter Laviolette to pursue until sometime in 2021.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.