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Nikita Kucherov

Atlantic Division Notes: Richards, Foligno, Carlo, Heinen

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Many pundits consider the Tampa Bay Lightning roster to be among the deepest and most talented in the league. The team boasts a franchise player in Steven Stamkos along with plenty of skilled skaters – Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin to name a few – joining him up front. They have Victor Hedman to anchor the blue line with Anton Stralman to provide support. In goal Tampa Bay has two netminders capable of carrying a team through a lengthy playoff run.

If the Lightning have one weakness that could derail their Stanley Cup plans it could be an ineffective power play. Tampa Bay ranked 28th in the NHL in power play efficiency, converting just 15.8% of their opportunities. While the team elected to essentially avoid signing outside free agents in order to save their limited cap space for their own, one addition could go a long way toward fixing their power play, as Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes.

Smith notes that since joining the team as head coach, Jon Cooper oversaw the man-advantage unit but he has ceded those duties to newly hired assistant coach Todd Richards. Richards of course was head coach in Columbus before losing his job on the heels of an 0 – 7 start to the 2015-16 season. Cooper expects Richards to provide a “fresh look and fresh face” to the power play.

In Richards’ last full season at the helm in Columbus, the Blue Jackets tied for fifth in power play efficiency with a 21.7% success rate. While Smith reports Richards won’t be making too many changes with regard to system or personnel, the players have noted some subtle changes including an emphasis on shooting the puck.

A more potent power play could go a long way to helping the Lightning over the hump and Richards’ solid showing in that area while with the Jackets offers hope he can help in Tampa.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • It’s taken the better part of five seasons but it finally appears as if winger Marcus Foligno has found his niche with the Buffalo Sabres, writes John Vogl of The Buffalo News. After a rough start to the 2015-16 campaign, Foligno finished the year strong scoring eight goals and 16 points in his final 40 contests. He credited a mid-season conversation with the Buffalo coaching staff as helping him find consistency with his game: “I voiced my frustration a little bit. I remember talking to the coaches about ‘What can I do?’ and things like that. It was good. It was positive criticism, and then from there I never looked back. You’ve got to look at the man in the mirror sometimes, and that’s what I did.” Foligno, now 25, is expected to fill a spot in the Sabres top-nine and to provide leadership, grit and toughness. For his part, head coach Dan Bylsma noted the change in Foligno: “In the past, there was some fluctuation in his game, there was some inconsistencies from game to game and week to week. Marcus’ game can’t change and fluctuate. He has to be a hard guy to play against. He has to be a big, physical presence. He’s got to be a guy who plays on the inside. Marcus grew into that, and in the last 45 games delivered that on a consistent basis.”
  • A few Boston prospects are making a case to stick with the big club to start the campaign, as Joe Haggerty of CSNNE writes. As Haggerty reports, Bruins head coach Claude Julien and his staff are looking at a roster scenario that would include rookies Brandon Carlo, Danton Heinen and Austin Czarnik making the club. With an aging and thin blue line, the fact Carlo, a 19-year-old, right-shot defender is closing in on a roster spot should be of little surprise. But for Heinen, a 2014 fourth-round pick, to be on the verge of securing a regular job in the team’s bottom six is somewhat surprising. Czarnik’s chances likely hinge on whether or not the Bruins use David Backes on the RW on one of the top two lines or as the team’s third-line pivot. Though a strong performance for Providence in the AHL that saw Czarnik tally 61 points in 68 contests, suggests the Miami of Ohio graduate is close to, if not fully ready for NHL action.

Snapshots: Kucherov, Wild, Dumoulin

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While TSN’s Bob McKenzie noted yesterday that Tampa Bay RFA Nikita Kucherov is the most likely of the remaining restricted free agents to receive an offer sheet, he told TSN 690 in Montreal today (via Chris Nichols of Today’s Slapshot) that he doesn’t expect the Lightning to make him available in trade talks:

“Steve Yzerman is not, I don’t believe, going to make a conscious decision to trade him. Because I think of all of those guys, some of them that he signed recently like (Alex) Killorn – we’ll keep Hedman out of the equation because he’s a lynchpin on defense – but when you’ve got all of those guys… Palat is up next year, Tyler Johnson is up next year, you’ve got Killorn. Let’s be honest. The guys that you would think Steve Yzerman would be most interested in moving are guys like Val Filppula and some of the other guys up front, not Kucherov.”

On top of Killorn and Palat needing new deals next year, so too does Jonathan Drouin while Ben Bishop will be an unrestricted free agent.  The team has roughly $5.5MM in cap space to work with this season according to Cap Friendly and have just over $55MM committed to 13 players already for 2017-18.  While Yzerman has suggested in the past that he shouldn’t have to trade anyone to get Kucherov signed for this season, someone inevitably will have to go sooner rather than later.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • The Wild have a quartet of players drafted in the first two rounds back in 2009 that will be crucial to their success this season, writes Michael Russo of the Star-Tribune. Forwards Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, and Jason Zucker are all 24, which in the eyes of GM Chuck Fletcher is a key year as it often represents the time that players have their breakthrough.  The team didn’t change much up front over the summer and will be counting on those four to take another step forward offensively under new head coach Bruce Boudreau.
  • After spending 2015-16 in a shutdown role, Pittsburgh defenseman Brian Dumoulin is looking to get more involved in the attack this season, notes Bill West of the Pittsburgh Tribune. After starting last year on the third pairing, he slowly worked his way up the lineup, finishing the postseason on the top pair while averaging nearly 22 minutes per night.  He made a mark at the offensive end late in the postseason and wound up scoring in the Stanley Cup-clinching game which also was just his second goal in 103 games.  With Olli Maatta now healthy, Dumoulin is in a battle in training camp to retain his top pairing spot alongside Kris Letang.

RFA Update: Gaudreau, Trouba, and Kucherov

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News and notes concerning the NHL’s remaining unsigned restricted free agents:

  • Johnny Gaudreau and the Flames are inching toward a deal, says TSN Insider Darren Dreger. Dreger refrained from saying that a deal is imminent, but that he expects an agreement within the week. The latest reports on negotiations from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, however, paints a bleaker picture. Friedman interviewed Gaudreau’s agent Lewis Gross and uncovered that the Flames had not talked to Gaudreau’s camp since September 9th. That was around the time that the Calgary Sun’s Eric Francis reported that Gaudreau was looking for something in the $8MM range while the Flames wanted to keep the contract under $6.75MM. It is important to note that Gaudreau lacks leverage in these negotiations because he is not eligible for an offer sheet.
  • A deal for Jacob Trouba is no closer to happening, says Darren Dreger on TSN 1040 Vancouver. Winnipeg is still looking for a 22-23 year old left shooting defenseman in return, and are not budging from that position. Dreger points to an ideal trade partner in Detroit, but the lack of that type of defenseman has stymied any potential deal. Expect Winnipeg to wait this out just like Tampa Bay did with Jonathan Drouin.
  • TSN’s Bob MacKenzie opined on a Nikita Kucherov offer sheet, stating that of all the unsigned RFAs, Kucherov is the most attractive offer sheet candidate. The Lightning are tight against the cap—both this year and in the future—and may not be able to pay Kucherov market value. MacKenzie gauges Kucherov’s market value at around $6-7MM, but the Lightning only have around $5.5MM in cap space. Even if they move players around to fit a matched contract this year, contracts to impending RFAs Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat, and Tyler Johnson next summer pose serious cap consideration.

2016-17 Season Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning

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With the NHL preseason underway, PHR continues to look at every team prior to the regular season. Today, we look at the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Last season: 46-31-5 (97 points), Finished 2nd in NHL Atlantic Division. Defeated Detroit 4-1 in the first round; Defeated New York Islanders 4-1 in the second round; Lost to Pittsburgh 4-3 in Eastern Conference Finals.

Cap Space Remaining: $5.55MM via CapFriendly.

Key Newcomers: None

Key Departures: None

Player to Watch: Ben Bishop. There are so many players to keep an eye on (namely Nikita Kucherov), but Bishop is intriguing because of what general manager Steve Yzerman will do as the netminder enters the final year of his contract. With Andrei Vasilevskiy waiting patiently behind him, Bishop has become a valuable commodity. Does Yzerman hold onto him for insurance purposes and unbelievable goaltending depth? Will he peddle him at the trade deadline or even before that, trying to pick up additional depth for a deep Stanley Cup run? While many wonder what he’ll do, Yzerman has proven to be the master negotiator and a front office executive who will do whatever it takes to strengthen the team. With Bishop coming off of a stellar season, it will be interesting to see if Bishop can replicate the performance, and if so, whether it will be with the Bolts or another team starved for a great goaltender.

Key Storylines: Is this the season Tampa Bay puts it all together and wins the Cup? Tampa is one of the deepest, if not the deepest team in the NHL, and a major contributor to that is Yzerman. As problem after problem faced the team, Yzerman barely broke a sweat navigating every issue. Jonathan Drouin demands a trade? No problem. Yzerman remained firm, let the situation blow over, and when trouble brewed in the way of injuries, Drouin was brought back to the big club and amazingly, peace was restored. Drouin also went on to be a major factor in the Bolts’ return to the conference final.

Steve Stamkos had a number of suitors lining up for what could have been the biggest free agency bonanza since Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, and Yzerman locked him up before free agency could even begin. He then re-upped with Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov, J.T. Brown, Cedric Paquette, Victor Hedman, and Vasilevskiy. While they didn’t add or subtract any major players, Yzerman locked up significant pieces with the exception of Kucherov, who is holding out for a new contract. If there’s anything to be said, it’s that Yzerman will find a way to solve the problem, be it through a trade (think the Martin St. Louis deal that Yzerman won) or a new contract–though the latter will be more difficult to maneuver. If Yzerman does trade Bishop down the road, expect him to find a defenseman to help shore up the blueline.

Should the Lightning stay healthy, there are few teams that could rival them in the regular season or playoffs. This could be the season that Yzerman, Jon Cooper and company bring a second Stanley Cup back to Tampa.

Tampa Bay Depth Chart

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Gostisbehere, Dumoulin

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.

Shayne Gostisbehere (Philadelphia): Gostisbehere exploded upon the scene in 2015-16, netting 17 goals and 46 points – in just 64 games – to lead all rookies in those categories. The former Union College defenseman quickly became one of the league’s most exciting blue liners and earned a spot on the Team North America entry in the World Cup.

The agents for this year’s top remaining unsigned RFA defenders – Hampus Lindholm and Rasmus Ristolainen – are pointing to the recently-signed and massive extension signed by Aaron Ekblad as the target. Ekblad of course inked an eight-year, $60MM deal with Florida and while Lindholm and Ristolainen are probably not at the level the Panthers blue liner is, they will still likely pocket something in the vicinity of $6MM annually when they finally sign.

Chances are Gostisbehere is also going to use the Ekblad deal as a comparable. Ekblad hasn’t produced offense at the same rate as Gostisbehere (0.72 PPG for “The Ghost” versus 0.47 PPG for Ekblad) but is a former #1 overall pick and projects as a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.

It’s likely the Lindholm and Ristolainen deals will actually serve as a better framework for a new contract for Gostisbehere. Assuming they each get something close to $6MM per, it’s fair to guess the Flyers young blue liner will also land in the same neighborhood.

Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh): Dumoulin tallied just 16 points in 79 contests and failed to net a single goal in 2015-16. Ordinarily those numbers wouldn’t be reflective of a guy who is going to cash in but Dumoulin showed in the postseason he has more to offer the Penguins. In 24 playoff games, Dumoulin scored two goals and eight points while averaging 21:31 of ice time per game. If he can carry over that level of play into the 2016-17 regular season, Dumoulin will surely be rewarded handsomely on his next contract.

A similar comparable could be Dmitry Orlov, who eventually signed a one-year deal with Washington worth $2.57MM. Orlov has clearly been a superior offensive producer, averaging 0.30 PPG during his career while Dumoulin has averaged just 0.19. But at 25, Dumoulin is just entering his prime and as we saw in the playoffs, he is capable of producing more offense in the right role. Currently he is listed opposite Kris Letang on the Penguins top blue line pair which could result in a higher point total for Dumoulin.

Even if Dumoulin doesn’t produce much offensively, there is still plenty of value in a steady and reliable performer on the back end. If both team and player elect for a one or two-year bridge deal, an AAV close to $2.5MM would seem fair. A long-term deal buying out free agent years could take the price up north of $3MM annually.

Atlantic Notes: Ristolainen, Kucherov, Mantha, MacArthur, Matthews

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Sabres RFA defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen has reported to the team despite being unsigned, notes John Vogl of the Buffalo News.   Both Ristolainen and his agent Mike Liut asked for the 21 year old to be allowed to skate with the team, which has been approved by GM Tim Murray.

Despite this development, it should not be construed as a sign that the two sides are close on a contract.  TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported on Wednesday that the two sides are at least $1MM apart per season on a new deal.  It does, however, remain noteworthy as it is very rare that an RFA will skate with a team despite being unsigned.  Most players simply stay away until a new deal is done.

Last season, Ristolainen had a career year, scoring nine goals while adding 32 assists while playing all 82 games for the first time.  He also logged an average of 25:17 per game in ice time, ranking first on the team.  He is expected to once again by Buffalo’s top blueliner once a new contract is signed.

More news out of the Atlantic Division:

  • Tampa Bay RFA right winger Nikita Kucherov will not report to camp without a contract like Ristolainen is, reports Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. GM Steve Yzerman remains “very hopeful” that a deal will get done although the two sides appear to still be a ways apart on a new deal.  The Lightning have roughly $5.5MM in cap space according to Cap Friendly but it will likely take more than that to get the 23 year old re-signed.
  • Red Wings prospect winger Anthony Mantha was asked to put on weight this offseason and a result, he often ate seven or eight times per day, writes Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. Mantha, Detroit’s first round pick (20th overall) in 2013, completed his second pro season last year, spending most of it with their AHL affiliate in Grand Rapids.  He did get into ten games with the Red Wings though, scoring twice while adding an assist.  The 22 year old is expected to contend for a roster spot this season but his waiver exemption could potentially work against him if someone else who is waiver eligible stands out.
  • Despite missing most of last season with concussion problems and suffering another concussion over the weekend, Senators left winger Clarke MacArthur has no plans to retire, reports Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun. In a statement released today, the 31 year old stated that he intends to return to the lineup at some point this season.   MacArthur has four years remaining on a five year deal signed back in August of 2014 with a cap hit of $4.65MM.  If he is expected to miss considerable time (which seems likely at this point), he would be eligible to be placed on Long-Term Injury Reserve.
  • 2016 first overall pick Auston Matthews is expected to make his Toronto preseason debut on Friday, notes the Toronto Sun’s Lance Hornby. Matthews recently joined the team after suiting up for Team North America at the World Cup of Hockey, where he had three points (2-1-3) in three games.

RFA Notes

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It’s been an unusual off-season in the NHL, with seven high profile Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) remaining a week into training camp. Compared to last off-season, when teams moved quickly to sign or trade players to avoid the threat of offer sheets.

In a series of tweets, TSN’s Bob McKenzie sent out the latest in negotiations from across the league.

Anaheim Ducks – Hampus Lindholm and Rickard Rakell – The Ducks are using Morgan Rielly and Seth Jones as comparable contracts, while Lindholm’s camp is pointing to Aaron Ekblad’s $7.5MM AAV. McKenzie clarifies that Lindholm isn’t asking for $7.5MM, more in the $6MM-plus range. McKenzie hasn’t been able to determine the range of numbers from the Rakell negotiations yet.

Arizona Coyotes – Tobias Rieder – The two sides are less than $500K apart. Rieder is currently looking for two years at $2.5MM per season, while the Coyotes aren’t budging on their offer of two years in the low $2MM range. Rieder does have KHL offers to consider, or McKenzie suggests he could ask for a trade or hold out.

Buffalo Sabres – Rasmus Ristolainen – The Sabres and Ristolainen are in the same situation as the Ducks and Lindholm, according to McKenzie. The two sides are at least $1MM apart, with each side standing firm with their comparables.

Calgary Flames – Johnny Gaudreau – This is likely the most fascinating case, as Gaudreau isn’t technically an RFA because he falls under the 10.2(c) CBA clause. Because Gaudreau hasn’t accrued three years experience, he isn’t eligible for an offer sheet and therefore has basically no power, other than holding out. McKenzie believes the Flames want Gaudreau to sign in the same range as Sean Monahan (six-years, $6.375MM per) and no higher than captain Mark Giordano ($6.75MM per), while Gauderau is looking for more than $8MM per season. The two sides have not negotiated recently, according to McKenzie, who called the situation “bit of a Cold War”.

Tampa Bay Lightning – Nikita Kucherov – If not Gaudreau, then Kucherov is definitely the most complex RFA situation due to the Lightning’s cap issues. While Kucherov has a long list of comparable contracts in the six-year, $36MM range, that’s not possible in the Lightning’s current state. They’ll need to move someone to accommodate another $6MM; McKenzie believes Ben Bishop will be traded sometime this season, but expects he’ll start the season in Tampa.

Winnipeg Jets – Jacob Trouba – There has been plenty of digital ink spilled on Trouba’s trade request, but the only new information from McKenzie was that Trouba is not interested in signing an offer sheet, because the Jets would not be allowed to trade him for a calendar year, should they match. That defeats the purpose of wanting to be traded.

It is still early in the season, but there is a firm deadline coming up: December 1st. Should an RFA not be signed by then, then he will be ineligible to play for the remainder of the season.

This is likely only a consideration for Trouba, with the Jets’ habit of slow-playing trade requests and waiting out poor trade offers.

Lightning Re-Sign Nikita Nesterov

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The Tampa Bay Lightning announced that they have re-signed restricted free agent defenseman Nikita Nesterov to a one year, $725K contract.  The deal actually represents a small pay cut for Nesterov, who made just under $800K last year although he was previously on a two-way deal while this is a one-way pact.

Last season, Nesterov played in 57 games with Tampa Bay, recording three goals and six assists while averaging 14:53 of ice time per game.  He also got into nine postseason contests, picking up a single assist but saw his ice time drop nearly three minutes down to 11:59 per night.

[Related: Lightning Depth Chart]

Nesterov was the Lightning’s fifth round pick (148th overall) back in 2011.  In 84 career NHL games, all with the Bolts, he has five goals and 11 assists.

The 23 year old was named to Team Russia at the World Cup of Hockey and got into Russia’s semi-final game against Canada, recording a single shot on goal in 6:47 of ice time as their seventh defenseman.

With the signing, the Lightning have just over $5.5MM in remaining cap space according to Cap Friendly.  Of course, the team still needs to re-sign fellow RFA and leading scorer Nikita Kucherov, who remains one of 11 remaining restricted free agents.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Wennberg, DeHaan, Zibanejad

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.

Alexander Wennberg (Columbus) – Wennberg was the Blue Jackets first-round pick in 2013, selected 14th overall. He debuted in the NHL during the 2014-15 season and finished with 20 points in 68 contests. He bumped his production up significantly in year two, recording 40 points in 69 games and flashing top-six potential.

Wennberg is more playmaker than goal scorer as his career 4-to-1 assist-to-goal ratio suggests. Washington’s Marcus Johansson posted similar career numbers through the expiration of his ELC with 33 goals and 62 assists in 183 contests; good for a points-per-game rate of 0.52. Johansson would sign a two-year contract worth $4MM total following the 2012-13 campaign.

The career production numbers between the two pivots should look similar given Wennberg tallies 40-plus points in close to a full slate of games in 2016-17 and would therefore be looking at a bridge deal right around the $2MM mark annually. Given Johansson’s second contract will be four years old, inflation could take that figure closer to $2.5MM per year. A longer term would appear unlikely as the Jackets will still have several inflated contracts on the books, including those of Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson and Brandon Dubinsky.

Calvin de Haan (New York Islanders) – Now 25, de Haan is now at the age many defensemen peak in terms of production. Originally the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft, de Haan has already established himself as one of the Islanders best defenders and will once again fill a spot in the club’s top-four. If he can stay healthy for a full slate of games and perhaps contribute a touch more in the offensive end, de Haan could set himself up for a nice raise on the $1.97MM AAV his current contract calls for.

Teammate Travis Hamonic, drafted by the Islanders in the second-round in 2008, is a bit more prolific offensively but should help us gauge de Haan’s potential value as a top-four defender. Upon the expiration of his ELC, Hamonic signed a seven-year, $27MM deal with an AAV of $3.857MM. By that time, Hamonic was already averaging better than 22 minutes of ice time and 0.33 points-per-game. If the two parties explore a long-term arrangement, it’s likely de Haan can point to Hamonic’s deal as a comparable.

Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) – As part of their overall team commitment to get younger and quicker this summer, the Rangers acquired the 23-year-old pivot from Ottawa in exchange for fellow center, Derick Brassard. Zibanejad, the Senators first-round pick in 2011, sixth overall, has steadily improved his offensive production since debuting as a regular during the strike-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Last season was Zibanejad’s best, with the Swede compiling 21 goals and 51 points in 81 contests.

A player with a similar pedigree, former high first-round choice and relatively consistent point-producer, Nazem Kadri, inked a six-year extension worth $27MM in April and that deal should serve as a reasonable target for Zibanejad. Kadri has averaged 0.59 points-per-game over the three seasons prior to his extension – 134 points in 227 games. Zibanejad, meanwhile, has averaged 0.57 points-per-contest the last three years – 130 points in 230 games.

Zibanejad is entering the final season of the two-year bridge deal he signed with Ottawa, paying the five-year veteran $2.625MM per season. A repeat of his 2015-16 performance this upcoming season should give Zibanejad a good chance to match the level of Kadri’s extension. But, if Kadri takes the next step in his development and makes a push for the 60-point threshold, he could see his value escalate to $5MM and up per season.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Johansen, Parayko, Teravainen

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish with the Central Division and move to the Metro.

Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – In Ryan Johansen, the Predators finally have that elusive #1 center they have lacked since the organization’s inception nearly two decades ago. In a rare “hockey trade” that benefited both parties, Nashville acquired Johansen from Columbus in exchange for Seth Jones, a potential franchise defenseman and something the Blue Jackets have sorely needed.

Johansen has tallied at least 60 points in each of the last three seasons and scored a career-best 71 as a 22-year-old during the 2014-15 campaign. On the downside, his goal scoring output has decreased from a career-high 33 in 2013-14 to 26 the following season and to just 14 in 2015-16. That’s likely the direct result of a shooting percentage of just 7.6%, a figure which was more than five points below the combined shooting percentage the two previous seasons. Simply converting shots at his normal rate would have resulted in a 24 – 25 goal campaign.

The Predators have done a marvelous job of locking up their core pieces to bargain long-term deals. Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Craig Smith and Mattias Ekholm have all recently inked extensions with Nashville at AAVs below what each player could have received on the open market. The trade-off for higher salaries during RFA years is cost-certainty and buying out free agent years below market value. Expect Nashville to employ the same strategy with Johansen.

Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon have each established themselves as 60-point producers and received extensions with an AAV in excess of $6MM. Aleksander Barkov, coming off a career-best 59-point season, signed a six-year, $35.4MM deal with Florida. All three, however, were coming off their ELCs while Johansen is entering the final season of his second contract. That means any long-term deal would buy out more free agent seasons and typically that tends to be more expensive. Based on the comparable deals and his proximity to free agency, a long-term contract for Johansen could well approach or even reach $7MM annually.

Colton Parayko (St. Louis) – Parayko came out of nowhere to earn a regular job on the Blues blue line and posted a solid scoring line of 9-24=33 in 79 contests as a rookie. He boasts a hard shot from the point and tremendous size at 6-foot-6 and 226 pounds. Currently, Parayko is skating in the World Cup as a member of Team North America, flashing his abilities on the international stage.

With only a single season of NHL experience, gauging Parayko’s potential value is difficult. However, if he approximates his 2015-16 production levels this upcoming season, the four-year, $19.5MM contract awarded to Sami Vatanen by the Ducks could prove to be a reasonable comparable.

Vatanen posted campaigns of 37 and 38 points in 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively before inking his current deal. Like Parayko, Vatanen is also a right-handed defenseman, which is more difficult to find than their counterparts on the left side.

St. Louis could counter with Ryan Ellis as a comparable. Ellis signed a five-year, $12.5MM contract in October of 2014 following a 27-point campaign with the Predators. But most would argue Ellis is worth more than that AAV and consequently Parayko would be too. It’s also possible the Blues would prefer to go with a bridge contract with a lower AAV than Parayko would be able to get on a long-term deal.

Teuvo Teravainen (Carolina) – The Hurricanes took advantage of Chicago’s salary cap woes and in exchange for agreeing to take on the final season of Bryan Bickell’s $4MM-a-year-deal, were rewarded with the skilled Teravainen. Much was expected from the young Finn following the 2014-15 postseason that saw Teravainen record 10 points in 18 games as the Hawks won their third Stanley Cup in six seasons. While a 35-point campaign as a 21-year-old is solid, Teravainen’s skill suggests there is even more scoring potential.

It makes sense to stick with the Hurricanes when looking for a comparable since doing so offers insight to how the club values their RFAs. Earlier this summer, Carolina agreed to a six-year, $24MM extension with Swedish center Victor Rask. Rask was coming off a breakout campaign which saw the 23-year-old pivot post career-highs in both goals (21) and assists (27). More importantly, his first NHL season mirrored Teravainen’s in terms of production as Rask netted 11 goals and 33 points in 80 games for the Canes in 2014-15. If Teravainen follows the same path and boosts his offensive production into the 45-point range, a contract similar to that of Rask’s would seem a safe bet.

Pro Hockey Rumors is not affiliated with National Hockey League, NHL or NHL.com

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