Michael Bunting

2:30 a.m.: The trade call is now complete with the Hurricanes also receiving Ty Smith as part of the trade, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman confirms. The Penguins will receive Bunting, forward prospects Ville Koivunen, Vasiliy Ponomarev, and Cruz Lucius, a conditional 2024 first-round pick, and a conditional 2024 fifth-round pick. If the Hurricanes don’t make the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, the first-round pick downgrades to the Flyers’ 2024 second-round pick. The fifth-round pick only transfers if the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup. The Penguins are also retaining 25% of Guentzel’s $6MM cap hit. A previous report indicated that defense prospect Scott Morrow was headed to Pittsburgh in the deal; this is false.

5:26 p.m.: The Hurricanes and Penguins are close to a trade that would send star winger Jake Guentzel to Carolina, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports. Forward Michael Bunting is expected as part of the return to Pittsburgh. Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic adds that both teams being in action tonight may delay the final trade call but that “all signs point to Guentzel going to Carolina.”

This is the first major splash at this year’s deadline for Hurricanes GM Don Waddell, who’s largely held out of making big moves late in the season throughout his time at the helm in Carolina. He notably didn’t swing for a forward upgrade at last year’s trade deadline, and his Metropolitan Division-winning squad ended up bowing out to the Panthers in an Eastern Conference Final sweep. The Hurricanes have seemingly beaten out four other teams – the Canucks, Golden Knights, Panthers, and Rangers all remained in contact with Pittsburgh today – for Guentzel’s services.

Guentzel, 29, has been a first-line staple in Pittsburgh alongside Sidney Crosby since making his debut in 2016, memorably scoring on his first NHL shot. After leading Pittsburgh in playoff goals during their run to the Stanley Cup in 2017 and breaking out for a 40-goal regular season two years later, Guentzel inked a five-year, $30MM contract that will expire this summer. There was little reason to believe Guentzel wouldn’t extend in Pittsburgh after he hovered around the point-per-game mark yet again last year with 73 in 78 games, but a disappointing season for the Penguins in the standings has caused the organization to shift to retool mode.

This year, Guentzel is back above the point-per-game mark, notching 22 goals and 52 points in 50 games. He’s missed the last few weeks with an upper-body injury and, until the trade goes through, remains on the Penguins’ LTIR list. However, he’s not expected to miss much more time and skated in a full-contact jersey today for the first time since the mid-February injury. Averaging 20:53 per game, his possession metrics across the board are strong, logging a +9 rating, a career-high 56.3 CF% at even strength, and a spectacular 57.1 xGF%, per Hockey Reference.

Surely, Guentzel’s career numbers have benefitted from so much ice time with one of the best players in league history. Hurricanes number-one center Sebastian Aho may not fall into the generational category, but he’s still among the league’s elite and should form a mutually beneficial relationship with Guentzel down the stretch and into the postseason. There’s no reason to believe Guentzel won’t slot into a top-line role immediately, allowing 23-year-old Andrei Svechnikov to drop down to the second line and receive some easier 5-on-5 matchups.

That addition will cause some domino effects, although the pressing issue of an upgrade on Jack Drury or Jesperi Kotkaniemi as a second-line center remains. While depth scoring wingers like Stefan Noesen have been a revelation, posting 31 points in 60 games for the ‘Canes despite logging under 12 minutes a night, he’s no Svechnikov. The 23-year-old is playing some of the best hockey of his career and is scoring at a career-best 0.93 point-per-game clip, and he and Martin Necas anchoring Carolina’s second line offers much more insulation to the overtaxed Drury as a true strong secondary scoring unit behind the Aho line. Noesen could then slot into a more comfortable fourth-line role, boosting their bottom unit alongside Kotkaniemi and Jesper Fast to be more well-rounded offensively.

While there won’t be an extension for Guentzel as part of this deal, it’s certainly possible before he reaches free agency on July 1. Bunting was signed for two more seasons with a $4.5MM cap hit, so moving him to the Penguins opens up a fair amount of cap space to devote to what could very well be a Guentzel extension that comes in north of $8MM per year. The Hurricanes will have $36.15MM in projected cap space next year after the trade, assuming no other players are coming from Pittsburgh to Carolina, with a roster size of 11. They have multiple impact players unsigned for next season, though, including Necas, Seth Jarvis, Teuvo Teräväinen, and Brett Pesce.

For the Penguins, this confirms the start of GM Kyle Dubas’ retooling to give the team a third wind in the twilight years of Crosby’s, Evgeni Malkin‘s, Erik Karlsson‘s, and Kris Letang‘s careers. They still have an incredibly formidable core but lack much speed, depth, youth, or skill among their secondary. Guentzel’s departure tonight could signal the departure of other assets, such as winger Reilly Smith and netminder Alex Nedeljkovic, before tomorrow’s deadline.

Bunting will provide a slightly younger and cheaper option in Pittsburgh’s top six compared to Smith, Rickard Rakell, or Bryan Rust. It marks the second time Dubas has moved to acquire him – his former GM with the OHL’s Soo Greyhounds was responsible for his big major-league chance by signing him in Toronto as a UFA, where he broke out as a top-line threat alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Even away from Toronto’s stars, Bunting maintained a decent level of production in Carolina, scoring 13 goals and 36 points through 60 games while averaging 15:07 per game. His possession impacts have nosedived away from Matthews and Marner, though, posting a 49.2 xGF% this year compared to his 58.2 mark throughout his two years with the Maple Leafs.

A first look at the futures the Pens acquired looks like a rocky start to the Dubas-led retool. Despite interest from multiple teams with deep prospect pools, Pittsburgh failed to secure a guaranteed first-round pick or a first-round-caliber prospect in the swap, opting for a trio of U-22 players instead.

The most notable prospect heading to the Penguins is Koivunen, who the Hurricanes selected in the mid-second round of the 2021 draft. A 20-year-old who can play both wing and center, Koivunen has dominated the Finnish Liiga in a proper breakthrough campaign this year, tied for first in points with Oulun Kärpät with 21 goals and 55 points in 57 games. He represented Finland at the 2022 and 2023 World Juniors and scored once in 12 games with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves last season, his only North American professional experience. Koivunen signed his entry-level contract in August 2021, but the deal slid twice due to his European Assignment Clause kicking in for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. As such, his contract only began in earnest this season and doesn’t expire until 2026, when he’ll be an RFA.

Ponomarev, 21, is the only prospect picked up by Pittsburgh with NHL experience. Another mid-second round pick of the Canes, selected one year before Koivunen, the Russian center notched a goal and an assist in his first two NHL games earlier this season. On assignment to the AHL at the time of the deal, he’s expected to join the Penguins’ affiliate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton after spending time with both the Tuscon Roadrunners and Chicago Wolves earlier this year. A Calder Cup champion with the Wolves in 2022, Ponomarev has eight goals, 29 points, and a -17 rating in 41 minor-league games this year. He’s in the second active season of his entry-level contract and will be an RFA in the summer of 2025.

Lucius, 19, was the latter of the Canes’ two fourth-round picks in 2022 and has not yet signed his ELC. The Lawrence, Kansas, native plays right wing and is in his sophomore season at the University of Wisconsin, where he’s been highly productive with 23 goals and 65 points in 66 games since 2022. He missed a solid chunk of his draft year due to injury, limiting his stock, so he does have a higher likelihood of cracking the NHL than his fourth-round billing suggests. The Penguins have until Aug. 15, 2026, to sign him to a deal before losing his exclusive signing rights.

While the Penguins may have technically added a second first-round pick in the upcoming draft, their selections are conditional. Pittsburgh could end up with no first-round selections this year if Carolina doesn’t reach the Final and their own first-round pick ends up outside of the top 10. The Pens dealt their 2024 first-rounder to the Sharks in last summer’s Erik Karlsson trade, but the pick is top-10 protected and would defer to 2025 if Pittsburgh ends up with a top-10 pick after this year’s draft lottery.

By removing Guentzel from LTIR, the Penguins now exceed the cap by $2.275MM, according to CapFriendly. They must clear space via additional trades, placing another player on LTIR, or reassigning players to the minors by 4 p.m. CT Friday.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.