Almost as soon as the Buffalo Sabres formally transitioned to a new regime led by Jarmo Kekäläinen, trade speculation had increased around winger Alex Tuch. On last night’s rendition of TSN’s OverDrive, the crew reported that Tuch is seeking a larger extension than what winger Adrian Kempe signed with the Los Angeles Kings.
Understandably, that report only served to increase speculation around the possibility of Tuch being moved from his hometown franchise by this year’s trade deadline. Michael Augello of The Hockey News believes that if the Sabres aren’t interested in going beyond an eight-year, $85MM ($10.625MM AAV) extension for Tuch, they should move on sooner rather than later.
In fairness, if that is where the market is at for top-six wingers, Kempe is the best comparable for Tuch to use. Each player is 29 years old and has averaged around 0.85 points per game since the 2021-22 campaign. Still, unless other moves are made, Buffalo will enter the summer months with just over $21MM in cap space, meaning if they gave Tuch what he wants, they would have already used more than half of their financial resources.
Other notes from the Atlantic Division:
- Staying in Buffalo, on Monday’s episode of Oilersnation Everyday, David Pagnotta of TheFourthPeriod asserted that Kekäläinen wasn’t necessarily the Sabres’ first choice last summer. Pagnotta shared that Buffalo reached out to longtime front office leaders: Ken Holland and Lou Lamoriello. Obviously, neither executive moved forward with the Sabres, as Holland joined the Kings as Vice President and General Manager. At the same time, Lamoriello has yet to find a new job after being ousted by the New York Islanders.
- According to George Richards of Florida Hockey Now, defenseman Gustav Forsling wasn’t on the ice with the Florida Panthers this morning for practice. The belief is that Forsling is nursing an arm or hand injury after blocking a shot during Monday’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Fortunately, given the line rushes the team was using, there’s no expectation that Forsling will be out long, if at all.
- In the AHL, the Belleville Senators, affiliate of the Ottawa Senators, are making a move at head coach. TSN’s Bruce Garrioch reported that Belleville fired head coach David Bell and has promoted Andrew Campbell in the interim. Bell had been the Senators’ head coach for the last three years, managing a record of 83-69-12-8. The team didn’t qualify for the postseason last year and is currently in fifth place in the North Division.
Tuch is no where near worth a Kempe type contract.
Since 2022-23:
Kempe:
272 GP
243 PTS
+62
Tuch:
262 GP
233 PTS
+41
Both wingers have above average possession metrics, both defensively sound, both near the top of their teams’ quality of competition metrics, both 29 years old. Their contracts should be in the same ballpark, yeah.
Jarmo should extend Tuch. Not to try and change the narrative of players leaving Buffalo but because he’s a really good player.
It proves the Kings overpaid Kempe.
That’s certainly possible.
Kempe’s cap percentage will be 10.2% in 2026-27 and 9.4% in 2027-78. That’s in line with top line player salaries in the Stone/Meier/Guentzel mold the last couple years. So maybe a little high but something he could’ve commanded as a UFA in July.
I think @fljay73 makes a valid argument against re-signing Tuch and leaning into a youth movement. A totally defensible path forward for Jarmo. I just think AAVs for players like Tuch and Kempe in the coming years will easily be over $10-11MM with the cap going up. There’s still sticker shock now but that’ll be the new normal.
If you believe that they overpaid, then you must think that they could have signed him for less. Please let us know what they could have paid him and why they chose not to. Thanks.
Pass. Buffalo has many young recently drafed 1st round forwards that will need playing time in the top 9. Also upcoming RFAs that will need extensions-
Byram
Benson
Ostlund
Doan
Ellis? (New GM)
Levi? (New GM)
Ostlund
Rosen? (Numbers crunch. He might be moved)
Kulich
Kesselring?
Quinn?
Some will get bridge deals. Some will get long-term deals. Some could get dealt.
Zucker is coming back within a month. Kulich sometime early next year. Buffalo has other needs and with $21 million in offseason cap space (more the next offseason) with Benson being offer sheet eligible they can only move out or buyout UPL/Greenway for substantial cap savings. Owen Power I don’t see the Sabres moving on from. Tuch and his demands will stick the Sabres with a dead weight contract at some point within 4 or 5 years. Reports are Tuch wants eight figures and most of it tied to signing bonuses making it buyout proof. That contract will be another Jeff Skinner albatross for the Sabres where a buyout will not be in the cards. Tuch is next off-season’s “unicorn” top 6 forward. His demand can allow the Sabres to address other roster needs. The Sabres should trade him. You do not want to be in a position where you have under 1st round offer sheet available cap space compensation on a Benson offer sheet. I prefer to have $10mil available until a Benson contract is done.
Agreed. I like Tuch, he’s a good player, but does anyone think he’s going to be a perennial 35 goal scorer deep into his thirties? $10 million might look good for two or three years, but it’s one of my mantras: teams who hand out max term/max dollar to guys hovering around thirty get badly burned far more often than otherwise. Especially with the dearth of quality UFA forwards this coming summer, someone’s going to offer him $11-12 MM.
Nope, trade him for what the market will bear. Someone will give the Sabres a first rounder and a decent player around the deadline.
+ I forgot to mention Helenius above.
Buffalo dealing Tuch, one of their goalies on the NHL roster, possible 2026 1st & Rosen(?) can allow Jarmo to make improvements to the backend of the roster to get the team to allow less goals. They have to get that goals allowed number to below 220 a season.
Haha they have two #1 overall pics on D and also added Bynam and still need improvements on the backend?
Power is still developing. He is around 22/23yo where as Dahlin was around 23/24yo when he started to establish himself more physically on the backend. I didn’t say top 3 dman I said veteran dman. To help shore up the D and be a positive influence on everyone else. Byram has not a good start to the season but he can play better the rest of the way. Power is more like Tage where it might take him to around 24/25yo to fully grow into his body.
It is kinda funny to me that LouLam would rather be unemployed than work in Buffalo.
The guy’s 83 freaking years old. Who in their right minds would consider him?
Lou isn’t exactly young anymore. Jarmo is a better fit for Buffalo.
“Pagnotta shared that Buffalo reached out to longtime front office leaders Ken Holland and Lou Lamoriello…”
…and this, in a nutshell, tells you everything you need to know about why the Sabres are the Sabres.
I wonder if he also reached out to Scotty Bowman…
Or Harry Sinden?
Sabres cannot handcuff themselves with a comfort signing. A serious analysis of the upside of a 8-10 yr deal must be done objectively. The Rochester Amerks have been consistently near the top of the AHL. This needs to start materializing into contributing young players who can play for a lower salary and have an impact on the team. Then specific anchor players need to be inserted into that young roster to provide the right balance of young and energy with experience and knowledge.
“Sabres cannot handcuff themselves with a comfort signing.” Well said!
Tuch along with one or 2 of his goalies should allow Jarmo a avenue to do a 3 team trade to make improvements on the Sabres for the next few seasons.