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High Likelihood Of Free Agent Class Shrinking Further

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Let’s state the facts: the 2017 unrestricted free agent class is really weak. Even before the season started it wasn’t full of household names, but with Brent Burns, Patrik Berglund, and, most recently, Ben Bishop agreeing to extensions already, the list has shrunk even further. The 2017 class has few impact players available, so much so that the New York Islanders easily have single-handedly deprived the rest of the league of three of the top fifty free agents simply by re-signing the likes of Thomas Greiss, Dennis Seidenberg, and Cal Clutterbuck.

Unfortunately, the trend of teams retaining their own talent and further forecasting a dull summer may not be done. The Washington Capitals have four of the best free agent names out there in T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner, and Justin Williams and even given their tight cap space, it is reasonable to assume that at least one or two of that group will re-up with the President’s Trophy winners. Initially, many felt that the San Jose Sharks would not bring back both of their aging stars, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, and possibly even neither. However, after a strong season from career-Shark Marleau, the team will likely look to retain him, and with Thornton turning 38 soon and facing significant injury questions, he simply might take a hometown discount to stay in San Jose as well. In Montreal, revelation Alexander Radulov and key veteran Andrei Markov are impending free agents, but many assume in name only as handshake agreements seem to have been made on new deals following the Expansion Draft. Anaheim Ducks trade deadline acquisition Patrick Eaves has been a great fit and has expressed an interest in extending his stay. Same goes for Drew Stafford and the Boston Bruins. Even veterans like Radim Vrbata, Mike Fisher, and Jaromir Jagr seem likely to stay put in their current homes.

This does seem to be an awful lot of deals to be made in less than two months before free agency opens on July 1st, but don’t rule it out. Many teams are wary of the Expansion Draft ramifications of re-signing their impending free agents too early and may instead act swiftly in the waning days of June. Most, if not all, of these names could be off the table by the time free agency opens. Could we be looking at a free agent class highlighted by the likes of Sam Gagner, Martin Hanzal, and Michael Del Zotto? Let’s hope not.

Capitals Have Four Of Top Eight Unrestricted Free Agents

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The 2017 free agency class may not be the strongest, but the Washington Capitals have the most to gain (or more likely lose) if free agency doesn’t go their way. The Capitals, currently on the ropes, down 3-1, to the Pittsburgh Penguins (Game 5 tonight), have four of the top eight unrestricted free agents, according to Matt Larkin of the Hockey News, as he posts his Top-30 unrestricted free agents this summer.

Unlike previous years, Larkin writes that this year’s class falls short of firepower, which the scribe points out is bad news for the expansion Las Vegas Golden Knights, who get a 48-hour window to negotiate with any free agents before any other teams. Regardless, it’s the Capitals who will find themselves on the clock as defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk is listed as the number one free agent on the list, while winger T.J. Oshie is third. Defenseman Karl Alzner is ranked fifth, while veteran wing Justin Williams is eighth on their list.

Larkin adds that he believes the Capitals will only be able to ink two of those players and will be forced to let two go. Shattenkirk, who was acquired in a February trade from the St. Louis Blues for their playoff run, has struggled in the playoffs this year, but is listed first due to the fact that blueliners in the prime of their careers, who can play 20 minutes a night, are always rewarded. Whether Washington can keep him at a high price tag is the tough question.

The team is likely to do everything to sign Oshie, however. The 30-year-old winger has had a breakout season with Washington on the first line with Alex Ovechkin and Niklas Backstrom. He has tallied 59 regular-season goals in the two seasons he has played for the Capitals since being acquired by trade from the Blues.

The Capitals then have to look at Alzner, a rugged blueliner who at age 28, could get a large contract in a weak year of free agent defensemen, while Williams playoff success could make him a well-paid second-liner as well. The Capitals have to decide what priorities they have as it’s unlikely they can afford to keep all four players.

Montreal Canadiens veteran winger Alexander Radulov, who returned to the NHL last year after a long stint in the KHL, is ranked second on the list, although he has said he would like to resign with the Canadiens. Goaltender Ben Bishop is listed fourth on that free agent list and the 30-year-old netminder should be in high demand. Veterans Martin Hanzal (No. 6), Joe Thornton (No. 7), Radim Vrbata (No. 9) and Patrick Eaves (No. 10) round out the first ten on that list.

 

Injury Notes: Gaborik, Thornton, Bergeron

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The Los Angeles Kings released a list of players who went through medical procedures following the year, and while Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez and Derek Forbort all underwent minor procedures that shouldn’t take long to heal, Marian Gaborik is said to be “questionable” for training camp. Gaborik had an “in-depth” procedure on his left knee, likely the same one that GM Rob Blake announced just yesterday. That announcement came with the addendum that the team would not buyout the declining star, and perhaps we now know why.

Teams cannot buy out injured players, and with the first window to perform such a transaction opening in less than a month, Gaborik clearly won’t be healthy. The Kings will likely receive a second window after their arbitration cases are resolved—there is no guarantee they get this window, but with 11 players currently eligible for arbitration are good candidates for it—but that will likely still be much too soon for Gaborik’s health.

  • When it was reported yesterday that Joe Thornton had been playing on one knee and would need surgery, it threw his free agency into question. If the 37-year old was headed for major knee surgery, which team would be willing to spend a hefty amount of money to add him to their team. Well, the Sharks announced today that Thornton underwent successful surgery and is expected to be ready for the start of the 2017-18 season, at least assuaging those reservations somewhat. His market value will still be contingent on medical results of his recovery, but he should be expected to garner quite a bit of interest.
  • Patrice Bergeron told media today that he had been dealing with a sports hernia all year, and that he and the medical staff are considering surgery to fix the problem. While it’s extremely impressive that Bergeron put up 53 points and another Selke-worthy season with a hernia, surgery shouldn’t be considered just an off-season clean up. Often players take quite a bit of time to recover fully from hernia procedures, even when they’re able to get back into games. His performance at the beginning of next season will be interesting to watch as he heads into his age-32 season.

Joe Thornton Played With Torn MCL And ACL

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San Jose Sharks coach Peter DeBoer spoke with the media today about their series loss against the Edmonton Oilers, and revealed that Joe Thornton had been playing with a torn MCL and ACL. He also says that Tomas Hertl had been playing with a broken foot, while Patrick Marleau had a broken finger. It likely means there is surgery in the near future for Thornton, which could drastically affect his free agency.

As he heads into the summer, Thornton is one of the top free agents on the market in what is a light year up front. Along with Alexander Radulov and T.J. Oshie, Thornton is one of the only proven top-six contributors available even as he approached 38 years old. His 50 points this season were a considerable step backwards, but he is just a year removed from an 82 point season in 2015-16. If his knee injury is further debilitating, he could be looking at a much lower cap-hit for someone to take a chance on him.

Though the Sharks would like to retain both Thornton and Marleau, it may be time to move on from the legends and try to build around Hertl and some of the other young players they have. Melker Karlsson, Marcus Sorensen, Joonas Donskoi and Chris Tierney are all restricted free agents this summer and deserve raises, while the team already has quite a bit of money tied up in their over-30 crowd, including the new $64MM extension for Brent Burns that kicks in next year.

Should Thornton make a full recovery, several teams may bite the bullet on the risks that his age and health pose, and offer a two-year deal to give him one last chance at the Stanley Cup. If it was his last stint in San Jose, skating with a “floating” knee seems like a loyal way to pay off a fan base that has cheered him for years, even if it did result in a first round exit.

Snapshots: Thornton, Marleau, Krejci, Schmaltz

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The big questions reporters seemed to ask veterans Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau when in the locker room Saturday after the San Jose Sharks had been eliminated in Game 6 of the playoffs first-round series was whether this was their last games as Sharks. The questions are justified. The Sharks boast one of the oldest cores in the NHL and couldn’t even win at home when they needed it.

Both Thornton and Marleau are both unrestricted free agents and have the option to look elsewhere this offseason. The two are both 37 years old, but are still going strong. Thornton finished with seven goals, but 43 assists this season for 50 points. Marleau is coming off a year in which he scored 27 goals to go with 19 assists for 46 points.

Despite their value, the question remains is the Sharks’ plan working? The knockout by a young Edmonton team that looks like it might control the Western Conference for a while with Connor McDavid and company may force San Jose to consider other options during the offseason.

NBC Sports Ray Ratto suggests this might be the end. The writer suggests the window has already closed and if it wasn’t for the team’s phenomenal playoff run last year that took them to the Stanley Cup Finals, it might have ended even earlier. Both veterans were still under contract a year ago, but as free agents, their demand will be high and their price tags will not come cheap. Many teams that are much closer to a Stanley Cup would love to add either veteran.

The team also must factor in the expansion draft as well. It is loaded with defensemen, so the team is likely to use the four forward, four defensemen and a goalie strategy. Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Dylan DeMelo and Brenden Dillon are likely keepers on defense. At forward, the team will likely keep Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture and youngster Tomas Hertl and will have to make a hard decision from there for that final spot. Goaltender Martin Jones is an obvious keeper.

  • Boston Bruins center David Krejci will not play in Game 6 today. The veteran center went down with a lower body injury in the first period of Friday’s Game 5 and never returned. He is out for today. Left wing Matt Beleskey will replace him, which will likely force a wing to move to the center position.
  • The St. Louis Blues have assigned Jordan Schmaltz to the Chicago Wolves. Schmaltz is the Blues’ seventh defenseman and was sent down earlier last week to help the Wolves’ playoff run and now returns. 22-year-old Tommy Vannelli was promoted in his place. This will be the defenseman’s first call-up to the big-league club.

Afternoon Notes: Vrbata, Fontaine, Khaira

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Radim Vrbata is an interesting case this summer, as he heads into free agency once again following a very successful bounce-back campaign. In 81 games for the Arizona Coyotes, Vrbata scored 20 goals and 55 points showing that he is still a capable offensive player even at his advanced age. He’ll be 36 this summer, and told Craig Morgan of AZ Sports today that if he came back to the Coyotes it would be on a one-year deal.

It’s unclear whether that means he would consider a multi-year deal somewhere else, but after not trading him at the deadline it was clear that Arizona hoped he would stay past this season. The winger would be an early candidate for trade deadline fodder again, as the Coyotes will have a hard time competing again next season as they continue their rebuild.

  • The New York Rangers have signed Gabriel Fontaine to an entry-level contract, despite him still being deep in a playoff run with the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies. The sixth-round pick had 52 points in 59 games this season and projects and will likely join the Rangers’ AHL affiliate next season. Though he has the size to make the NHL one day, it is still a long way away for Fontaine as he’ll need to perfect his two-way game. Without the high-end skill that would allow him to play in the top-six, he will make it in professional hockey by continuing to play solid defensively and improve in the faceoff dot. The Huskies will continue their series against Chicoutimi tomorrow night.
  • Edmonton has brought  Jujhar Khaira back up prior to their playoff series against the San Jose Sharks. The 22-year old forward played 10 games for the Oilers this season, registering just a single goal. Khaira represents some center depth for the Oilers and a heavy forward who could be inserted onto the fourth line if the team feels it needs a change.
  • According to Dan Rosen of NHL.com, the Los Angeles Kings have sent Adrian Kempe, Jonny Brodzinski and Paul LaDue back to the AHL for the Ontario Reign’s playoff run. The three have all played the majority of the season in the minors and will be a big part of any Calder Cup aspirations the Reign may have.
  • In a similar move, the Tampa Bay Lightning have sent Cory Conacher, Jake Dotchin, Gabriel Dumont, Adam Erne and Yanni Gourde all back down to the Syracuse Crunch to help the AHL team in the playoffs. The sheer amount of players that Tampa Bay had pulled from their minor league team shows how decimated they were by injury this year, while still only missing the playoffs by one point. The Crunch were in first place for much of the season, but after losing almost half their starting lineup to the NHL slipped slightly in the last month. They’ll go in as one of the favorites now that they have this group back.
  • Both Joe Thornton and Logan Couture were back at San Jose Sharks’ practice today according to Kevin Kurz of NBC. The two centermen were both in regular sweaters, though Couture skated with a full cage on his helmet. It wouldn’t be surprising to see both of them suit up for game one of their series on Wednesday night, which would be a huge boost to a Sharks team that struggled down the stretch.

Snapshots: Jagr, Lightning, Martenet, Sharks

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While he has stated that he fully plans to play next season, there have been no discussions between right winger Jaromir Jagr and the Panthers regarding a potential contract extension, reports George Richards of the Miami Herald.  Instead, the two sides plan to sit down following the season to see if they can work out a new deal.

The 45 year old Jagr has been on one year contracts for the last six seasons and undoubtedly will be signing another one wherever he winds up landing.  In his second season with Florida, his numbers have taken a dip but he sits fourth in team scoring with 16 goals and 27 assists in 79 games.  He may have to take a pay cut to remain with the team, however, as the Panthers already have over $61MM in payroll committed for next season.  Jagr is carrying a $4MM cap hit this season but has already reached an additional $1.5MM in games played bonuses.

Other notes from around the league:

  • After agreeing to terms on an entry-level deal with prospect goalie Connor Ingram earlier today, the Lightning also announced (via Twitter) that they’ve inked forward prospect Dennis Yan to an amateur tryout agreement and assigned him to their AHL affiliate in Syracuse. Joining them is 2015 first rounder Brett Howden who is now eligible to be sent down after his junior team was eliminated from the postseason.  The trio represent some reinforcements for a Crunch team who has been hit hard by injuries in Tampa Bay and are in a battle for top spot in the AHL’s North Division heading into the final two weeks of the season.
  • Also heading to the pros for the first time is Dallas defensive prospect Chris Martenet. The AHL’s Stars announced that he has been assigned to the team following his junior team, the Ottawa 67’s, was eliminated from the playoffs.  The 20 year old tied a career high in points at the OHL level with 16 in 55 games split between London and Ottawa.
  • Sharks head coach Peter DeBoer provided a brief injury update on forwards Logan Couture and Joe Thornton, classifying each as day-to-day, notes CSN Bay Area’s Kevin Kurz. He wouldn’t specify when either would be back, only saying that they’re expected back “at some point”.  Couture has been out since taking a puck to the mouth on March 25th while Thornton suffered a knee injury on Sunday against the Canucks.

Joe Thornton Suffers Knee Injury, Leaves Game

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Toward the end of the first period in tonight’s San Jose Sharks contest against the Vancouver Canucks, Sharks veteran Joe Thornton collided with Canucks forward Michael Chaput and injured his left knee. As you can see, Thornton’s knee appeared to bend backward and then buckle under his weight. Thornton was helped to the bench and labored toward the tunnel. Thornton reportedly “crawled” toward the locker room, unable to put any weigh on his left leg. There is no word yet on the specifics or severity of the damage, but as of now it looks to be a serious injury. The Shark announced that Thornton’s return was questionable, but the optics of the hit suggest that, at the very least, Thornton is done for the night.

Thornton, likely a future Hockey Hall of Famer, has still been putting up big numbers at age 37, with 50 points through 78 games thus far. However, at 6’4″, 220 lbs., “Jumbo Joe” has less margin for error when it comes to injury relative to his aging peers. With a big frame and a powerful stride, Thornton can ill-afford to have a lower body injury, but that is certainly how things appear as of now. Serious injury or not, Thornton can expect to miss some time as a result of the collision. The defending Western Conference champions normally have the depth to deal with a loss up front, even one as major as Thornton, but with Logan Couture already sidelined, things may become difficult in San Jose. The Sharks have already been struggling of late, with just two wins in their last ten games, and Thornton missing time won’t help the matter. Rather than battling the Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers atop the Pacific Division, the Sharks may now be using their stretch run to fend off the Calgary Flames and to jostle for position with the St. Louis Blues and Nashville Predators in hopes of not playing the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round. Regardless of their final position, the Sharks Stanley Cup hopes would take a major hit if Thornton’s season is over.

Beyond just 2016-17, a serious injury for Thornton could raise major concerns over his future and the Sharks’ off-season plans. Thornton is an unrestricted free agent this summer, previously ranked third overall of the class by PHR, and many expected the Sharks to retain their star veteran at all cost. However, a heavy forward in his late 30’s coming off a career-low in goals already has some red flags, and adding a major knee injury could take extending Thornton off the table for San Jose and could potentially make it hard for him to find a job this summer. For Thornton and all Sharks fans, the hope is that the injury is not that serious and this scenario never comes to fruition. For now, the assumption is otherwise.

The Case For T.J. Oshie As This Summer’s Top Free Agent

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Earlier this year, PHR put together our first draft of the 2017 unrestricted free agent class. Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie finished a respectable fourth on that list, behind Joe Thornton, Alexander Radulov, and, of course, Oshie’s new teammate Kevin Shattenkirk. Those mid-season power rankings were just that, a list based on career performance and the first half of the season. Yet, free agancy often reflects “what have you done for me lately?” rather than a complete analysis of a player’s full body of work, and the second half of the season has been a windfall for Oshie. Is he now the top player on the market this summer?

After last night’s hat trick against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Oshie is now the Capitals leading goal-scorer. Yes, that’s right, Oshie leads the best team in the league in goals, not Alexander Ovechkin. The last time that any player led Washington in goal scoring at this point in the season and wasn’t Ovechkin: Robert Lang in 2003-04. Not only that, Oshie’s 49 points in 58 games makes him the most efficient scorer on the team behind Nicklas Backstrom. Oshie is sniping at a career rate in 2016-17, with a 24.2% shooting percentage, which explains his career-high in goals as well. He also has a career-best +26 rating right now, a function of the Capital’s success but also of the more careful, refined game he has shown this season.

So Oshie is having an excellent year; does that make him the top free agent? No one behind Oshie on our initial list has played significantly better, so it comes down to comparing him against Thornton, Radulov, and Shattenkirk. The first thing that should stick out between Oshie and Thornton is age. Oshie will be 30 years old at the start of the 2017-18 season, whereas Thornton will be 38. Radulov will be just 31, but has just returned to the NHL this season after a long hiatus in the KHL. Oshie and Thornton thus have him beat in terms of career consistency and dependability. If 2016-17 scoring is the main criteria, it’s a close race with Oshie at 49 points, Thornton at 48 points, and Radulov at 47 points, but Oshie has played in fewer games than the others. With an age advantage over Thornton and a consistency advantage over Radulov packaged with a scoring advantage over both, it’s fair to say that Oshie has moved into the top spot among impending free agent forwards. Making that call easier is the fact that both Thornton and Radulov are expected by many to re-sign with their current teams following the Expansion Draft in June and may not even hit the open market with Oshie on July 1st.

So that leaves Oshie vs. Shattenkirk. Especially if Washington wins their first ever Stanley Cup on the backs of these two players, both Oshie and Shattenkirk will be highly sought-after and handsomely paid on July 1st. However, can you make the case that Oshie has surpassed his new teammate in free agent value? Back in January, the PHR writers were in universal agreement that Shattenkirk was the top player available. However, when it came time for the St. Louis Blues to move him at the Trade Deadline, rumors began circulating that many teams saw Shattenkirk as a second-pair guy, were unwilling to part with top prospects and multiple high picks to acquire him, and were not planning on handing him a contract worth $7MM+ per year this summer. The Capitals ended up parting with a package that surprised many as being relatively cheap in return for the star defenseman. Shattenkirk is still the best blue liner on the market and will get his money somewhere, but no such word has come out about Oshie’s free agency prospects. It appears that teams are ready to give the skilled winger whatever he asks, as Oshie has proved time and time again that he is one of the most consistent scorers in the NHL, as well as a powerplay dyanamo and shootout specialist. The simple fact that scoring defense is always in higher demand than scoring forwards may dictate that Shattenkirk remains the top free agent this summer, but don’t be surprised to see Oshie get a similar deal to his teammate and go on to have greater success than Shattenkirk with his new team in the future.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic Wants To Stay In San Jose

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After taking up four different thoughts in Elliotte Friedman’s latest column on Sportsnet, Marc-Edouard Vlasic spoke to Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News about his desire to stay a San Jose Shark for his entire career. Marc-Edouard Vlasic

I like the team, I like the area. We’re competitive every year, and at the end of my contract next year, I’ll have been here 12 years. I guess I do like it here if I’ve been here 12 years. Yeah, if [staying in San Jose] works out, that’d be great. It’s a priority.

Vlasic’s contract is up after next season, when he’ll be 31. Earning only $4.25MM per season on his current deal, Vlasic has been one of the best bargains in the league for the Sharks. A model of consistency, Vlasic has never averaged less than 20 minutes per night for the Sharks, including his rookie season when he was just 19-years old. He draws the tough assignments night in and night out, allowing other players—namely Brent Burns—to feast on the easier matchups.

While Vlasic still will garner very few headlines, his relatively low cap-hit has allowed the Sharks to build a defense corps that is one of the best in the league. Next season when Burns’ eight-year, $64MM extension kicks in the team may need to rework their group if they have any chance of signing Vlasic long-term. Both Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are unrestricted free agents, and may have to settle for one-year deals if they want to stay in San Jose. If Vlasic is starting a new contract in 2018-19 at the same time Tomas Hertl, Dylan DeMelo and Martin Jones all need raises, there won’t be room for the pair of 37-year olds.

It’s not many players who complete their whole career with one team, but if the Sharks do offer Vlasic a five or six year deal perhaps he will be one of them. His steady presence has been a big part of their success over the past decade, missing the playoffs just once during his tenure. If he ever did hit free agency, there would likely be 30 other teams waiting to knock on his door and bring him into the fold.

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