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NHL Trade Deadline Trends

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With two (albeit minor) trades today, it seems as if the annual pre-NHL Trade Deadline flurry of activity is underway. NHL analytics guru Rob Vollman was ready for it yesterday, releasing some new, interesting statistics related to trade deadline trends. With the last day to make deals this season coming up on Monday, February 26th, these correlations may indicate what we can expect in the coming weeks.

Vollman’s first chart shows the distribution of deals made in the month leading up to the trade deadline. On average, there have been close to 41 trades in the month leading up to the deadline since 2005. There tends to be nearly a trade per day beginning 30 days prior to the deadline and going throughout the month, with the numbers increasing exponentially in the final three days. In 2016-17, there were five trades made in the month of January, which slowed down the early February pace somewhat. However, deals came with a more torrid pace beginning in the middle of the month, leading to a total of 41 trades made in the month – on par with the trend over the last decade plus. On average, one can expect 12 trades over the next month leading up to 29 swaps over the final two days prior and deadline day combined. On the 26th, it would be reasonable to see more than 20 trades made, as that has been the trend of late.

So who will be making those deals? Vollman’s second chart shows the frequency that each NHL team has made trades since 2005. The Anaheim Ducks stand out as having made far more deals in that time than any other team in the league, including quite a few deals prior to deadline day. Could the Ducks make a deal this deadline season? Of course, although GM Bob Murray and company may need some more clarity on the Western Conference playoff picture before deciding to be buyers or sellers. The last-place Arizona Coyotes, also common deal-makers, aren’t in that position, but with no impending free agent rentals outside of Brad Richardson, Luke Schenn, and maybe Antti Raanta, there may not be many trade options for GM John Chayka unless he makes some bigger splashes. Eastern Conference contenders Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Washington have all been known to make a few trades, so don’t expect anything different this season. On the other hand, the Red Wings, Stars, and Predators have a history of being hesitant to make moves. If Dallas does make a deal, expect it to come early, as they have far more trades made earlier in February than at the deadline. Conversely, the Avalanche often wait until the last minute, which should be no different in 2017-18 with Colorado being a team that could benefit from a clear look at the Western race.

The trading mania is about to begin, so even if John Ramage, Jeff Zatkoff, or even Anthony Duclair don’t interest you, don’t fret, more moves are on their way.

Columbus Blue Jackets Acquire Jeff Zatkoff

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After trading away one minor league contract earlier today, the Columbus Blue Jackets have acquired another. The team has acquired goaltender Jeff Zatkoff from the Los Angeles Kings in exchange for future considerations.

With Jack Campbell and Cal Petersen splitting the net for the Ontario Reign of the AHL, Zatkoff hasn’t actually played in a single game this season. It’s not entirely clear where he’ll fit into the AHL picture for Columbus either, though they’ve experienced struggles from all of their goaltenders this season for the Cleveland Monsters.

Zatkoff of course brings with him plenty of experience, as the 30-year old has 48 games under his belt in the NHL including 13 last season with the Kings. A third-round pick in 2006, he has repeatedly put up healthy save percentages in the minor leagues and could provide some stability in Cleveland.

The goaltender pushes Columbus back up to 46/50 contract slots filled, and actually will cost them a relatively large amount of money to play in the minor leagues this season. Zatkoff is in the second year of a two-year, one-way contract that earns him $900K regardless of whether he’s in the NHL or minor leagues.

Options In Net For The Edmonton Oilers

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Things went from bad to worse for the Edmonton Oilers’ 2017-18 season when dependable starting goaltender Cam Talbot went down with and upper body injury and landed on IR and could remain out through December. His replacement, Laurent Brossoit, is struggling and that’s putting it gently. In 8 appearances, Brossoit has one win, an .872 save percentage, and a 3.80 GAA. Neither of the backup options, Nick Ellis or Eddie Pasquale, has any NHL experience, nor has either been given a chance to gain any just yet, nor has either played remarkably well in the AHL as well. It’s a dire situation for a team that is desperate for wins, or else the face a familiar possibility of finishing as one of the league’s worst teams this season.

So what are the options? TSN’s Frank Servalli believes that Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli is scouring the trade market for help in net. Servalli lists Buffalo’s Chad Johnson, Winnipeg’s Michael Hutchinson, Philadelphia’s Michal Neuvirth, Toronto’s Calvin Pickard, and Detroit’s Petr Mrazek as the top targets for Edmonton.

Johnson, of course, is known to be on the trade block courtesy of the Sabres’ own struggles and seems to be the best fit of these options as a reliable veteran on a one-year deal. Servalli even states that Johnson, along with Neuvirth, were among the Chiarelli’s free agency targets to be Talbot’s backup. However, as Servalli points out, there could be other suitors for Johnson, which could drive the price up.

More affordable assets to acquire could be Hutchinson or Pickard, due to their teams’ depth in goal. The Maple Leafs acquired Pickard from the Vegas Golden Knights earlier this year, but with Frederik Andersen playing well, a veteran backup in Curtis McElhinney, and other promising young goalies in Garret Sparks and Kasimir Kaskisuo in line, Pickard is expendable. So too could be McElhinney or Sparks as well, if Chiarelli favors those Toronto alternatives. In Winnipeg, the thriving Jets are doing just fine with Connor Hellebuyck, rookie Eric Comrie, and expensive free agent acquistion Steve Mason as their net rotation. A solid goaltender with ties to Chiarelli from the Boston Bruins, fourth-string Hutchinson seems like a likely target.

Mrazek and Neuvirth less so. Mrazek is still young, is making $4MM, and will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season. It is likely that he would be costly to acquire and costly to re-sign, when the Oilers really just need a stopgap. Neuvirth, who has a year remaining at $2.5MM, could replace Brossoit as the long-term backup to Talbot if Chiarelli so chooses, but also seems like an unlikely acquisition. AHL goaltenders from both the Red Wings and Flyers – Jared Coreau and Alex Lyon – might actually make more sense.

Other options: Eddie Lack or David Rittich from the rival Calgary Flames, Colorado’s Andrew Hammond, Anaheim’s Reto Berra, L.A.’s Jack Campbell or Jeff Zatkoff, and several more. The options are there, so the pressure is on Chiarelli to find a fair deal and to do it soon. Edmonton may simply lose upcoming games regardless of who is in net, but if the team continues forward with only Brossoit, the blame will fall on the front office for not doing something to at least increase their chances.

Kings Sign Goalie Darcy Kuemper

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Speculated upon for some time, and confirmed by the L.A. Times’ Helene Elliot, the Los Angeles Kings have signed Darcy Kuemper to be a backup goalkeeper next season. The contract is for only one season and comes in at the league minimum $650,000 AAV. Kuemper has struggled mightily after being the most promising goaltending prospect in Minnesota for years. The 6’5 tender is still only 27, and will look to rebound in a new location. In 102 games NHL games, he’s posted 42 wins alongside a .910 save percentage and 2.60 goals against average.

Kuemper had a down season for the Wild as Devan Dubnyk was forced to start 63 contests. Considering Jonathan Quick’s injury troubles, Kuemper will likely have a larger workload this season as L.A. coach John Stevens tries to reduce the strain on the athletic starter. Kuemper will need to do better than his .902 last season, and he certainly seems capable of doing so. After trading Ben Bishop to Dallas, it was a possibility that the Kings would look for another goaltender on the cheap. Jeff Zatkoff is still on the squad, but general manager Rob Blake was apparently looking for more security in between the pipes.

Kuemper still has a bit of upside to his game, as his is athletic and mobile. He was the top keeper of the CHL in 2011, so the talent is there. His confidence seemed to take a major hit this last season in Minnesota, and he never seemed to fully recover back to form. Kuemper is surely not the biggest name acquired today, but he could be a high-reward pickup with only minimal risk on Los Angeles’ part.

Kings Activate Quick, Nolan From IR

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Two-time Stanley Cup winning goalie Jonathan Quick has been activated from LTIR by the Los Angeles Kings, as first reported by TSN’s Frank Seravalli, and is scheduled to make his first appearance in more than four months this afternoon as the team prepares to play host to the Anaheim Ducks. Quick has been sidelined due to a groin injury suffered in the first period of the 2016-17 season opener. It’s hoped the return of the veteran netminder will help propel the Kings, currently five points behind Nashville for the second wild card spot in the Western Conference, back into a postseason slot.

The Kings have relied primarily on veteran backup backstop Peter Budaj with Quick sidelined. Budaj has more than held his own in 51 starts, tying his career high in Save % with a 0.917 mark and posting a career-best 2.12 GAA. He also leads the league in both shutouts (7) and losses (20).

It’s hard to fault the goaltending for the team’s struggles given Budaj’s strong performance but Quick’s return will certainly provide a boost for the Kings down the stretch. Additionally, any idea the Kings may have entertained about acquiring a veteran backstop at the trade deadline can be shelved and the club can instead focus their efforts and resources on upgrading other areas of the roster.

In addition to Quick, forward Jordan Nolan was also activated from IR by the team, according to Helene Elliot of the LA Times. Nolan, who has missed the last three weeks due to a lower-body injury, has four goals and eight points in 41 contests this season. While not much of an offensive threat, the gritty pivot adds size and physicality to the team’s fourth line.

With Quick’s return, the Kings have reassigned Jeff Zatkoff to Ontario of the AHL. Zatkoff, who cleared waivers earlier this week, has struggled between the pipes for L.A., winning just two of eight starts and compiling a Save % of just 0.879 and a GAA of nearly three.

 

 

Jeff Zatkoff Placed On Waivers, Brooks Laich Clears

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According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, the Los Angeles Kings have decided to put Jeff Zatkoff on waivers today, perhaps signalling a callup of Jack Campbell from the AHL or the return of Jonathan Quick a little earlier than expected. Zatkoff hadn’t performed as the Kings had hoped this season, and never seemed to fully recover from an early injury. His .879 save percentage is just simply not good enough for a team trying to make the playoffs.

Campbell on the other hand is playing well at the AHL, finally putting together what was supposed to be a promising career. Drafted 11th overall in 2010, he has spent time in the ECHL as recently as last season. His .913 save percentage for the Ontario Reign isn’t all-star worthy, but it is at least consistent for a player who has often lacked it.

Quick has been out since opening night but has been practicing with the team lately. It wasn’t clear that he was ready to return to game action, but perhaps the club is just waiving Zatkoff in preparation for his return. Quick would be quite a boost to the Kings, who find themselves just out of the playoff picture at the moment.

Brooks Laich has also cleared waivers after being placed on them yesterday. He is currently playing in a game for the Toronto Marlies, and continues to honor his contract there. Laich spoke out about how he wanted to play for another team if the Leafs weren’t going to bring him up, and it seems as though GM Lou Lamoriello was trying to see if someone would take him.

As we wrote about yesterday, retaining 50% of Laich’s salary in any trade for the veteran would actually cause a larger cap-hit on the Maple Leafs than just keeping him buried in the minors, thus he stays down. It seems the biggest chance for Laich would be a rash of injuries to the Maple Leafs down the stretch, forcing them to bring up experience instead of youth from their AHL team. He, Milan Michalek and Colin Greening are all a built in security blanket for the young Maple Leafs.

Peter Budaj And The Comeback Kids

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Peter Budaj was done. Finished. Washed-up. On his way out. Lost at sea.

Then, suddenly he wasn’t.

When Jonathan Quick and Jeff Zatkoff both sustained injuries within the first two weeks of the season, many believed the Kings would panic and overpay for a replacement netminder. Ben Bishop, Jimmy Howard, Marc-Andre Fleury were all names that were expected to be linked to the west-coast royalty, but nothing materialized. The team immediately said that they weren’t going to overpay for a goaltender when they weren’t sure how long Quick would be out, and believed their team was good enough to hold down a playoff spot until his return. What they didn’t expect, was that they would get all-star level goaltending from a guy who had never given it before, and who was rapidly approaching the back half of his thirties.

Peter Budaj made his first start for the Los Angels Kings this season on October 20th, and allowed three goals on 20 shots. Here we go, thought Kings’ fans who expected an .850 save percentage was about all they would get from a 34-year old journeyman. After all, Budaj had played in just one NHL game the last two seasons, and had a career .903 save percentage. Their season was lost unless they went out and got another goaltender, but how could they afford it?

And then, magic. Budaj would find another gear and lead the Kings to a 24-14-3 record while recording a .923 save percentage. His seven shutouts lead the league (ahead of some household names in Braden Holtby, Devan Dubnyk and Tuukka Rask) and he’s recorded a goals against average 0.7 less than his career average. In short, he’s been great.

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Jonathan Quick Injury Update

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Los Angeles Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick gets closer and closer to a return, reports LA Kings insider Jon Rosen. Quick took to the ice in full gear this morning for the first time since injuring his groin midway through the season opener. He’s spent the last four months recovering off-ice, respecting the injury and wary of progressing too fast. Kings GM Dean Lombardi has gone back and forth on a planned return date, at times stating early March or mid-February. Having Quick on ice in full equipment by February 1st is right on schedule, at least according to Kings coach Darryl Sutter.

Quick’s injury initially spelled doom for the Kings as the organization had no viable backup ready to take the reins. They had signed former Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Jeff Zatkoff—who was relegated in Pittsburgh to a third-string role after Matt Murray’s surprise success—but his play quickly indicated that he was not ready for the starting role.

Luckily for the Kings however, veteran Peter Budaj stepped up and manned the crease admirably. Budaj is putting up the best numbers of his career this season. In 44 games Budaj is 24-14-3 with a .922 SV% , a 2.01 GAA, and 6 shutouts. Not bad for a goaltender on the brink of retirement. Budaj’s performance has kept the Kings in playoff contention, and Quick’s return could solidify its ticket down the stretch.

Budaj’s strong performance also allowed Quick to rehabilitate properly and not rush back to action too soon. Groin injuries are incredibly tricky for goaltenders as they rely heavily on lateral side to side movement. Ensuring that Quick is 100% before starting him significantly reduces the chances of him relapsing.

 

Pacific Division Snapshots: Kings, Meier, Coyotes

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Like many teams in the league, the Los Angeles Kings have battled their fair share of injuries. Star sniper Marian Gaborik has appeared in just nine games this season and has posted just one goal and four points. Anze Kopitar, one of the league’s top, two-way centers has missed some time. And perhaps most importantly, Jonathan Quick has been out since season’s first game, forcing the team to rely on a combination of Jeff Zatkoff and Peter Budaj to hold down the fort until he returns. It’s not an ideal situation but the Kings have hung tough in the standings, as Helene Elliott of the Los Angeles Times writes, and currently hold one of two wild card slots in the Western Conference.

Because of injuries to Zatkoff, it’s been Budaj that has seen most of the action between the pipes for L.A. Originally signed to be the team’s third goalie, Budaj has posted a career-best 2.17 GAA while winning 14 of his 26 starts. While he’s had his ups and downs, Budaj has been good enough most nights to keep the Kings in games.

As Elliott notes, the team has managed to stay afloat thanks in large part to their work ethic. Now, the Kings are close to full health, though Quick is still expected to be out until February, and are just five points behind the San Jose Sharks for first place in the Pacific Division with one game in hand. Assuming Budaj can continue to play adequately enough, or the team finds a better stopgap option, and Gaborik can rediscover his scoring touch, the Kings have a good chance to again qualify for the postseason. Once there, anything can happen.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:

  • Highly-touted rookie Timo Meier made his debut with the San Jose Sharks last season and by all accounts it was a huge success, as Curtis Pashelka of the Mercury News recounts. Meier scored his first career NHL goal on his first shot last night and the Sharks erupted for three goals in the first period of their 4 – 2 victory over the Montreal Canadiens. Meier would finish with three shots on net in just more than 10 minutes of ice time. That’s exactly the type of spark the Sharks were hoping for when calling up the 2015 first-round draft pick. Meier’s insertion into the lineup pushed veteran forward Joel Ward to the press box last night and while it’s certain the first-year pro will remain in the San Jose lineup for the immediate future, it’s less clear how that fact will impact the rest of the Sharks forward group. As long as Meier produces, DeBoer will undoubtedly find a way to mix and match his forwards.
  • Desperate for help up the middle, the Arizona Coyotes recently acquired Peter Holland via trade from Toronto and added Josh Jooris off of waivers from the New York Rangers. Veteran center Brad Richardson is out indefinitely with multiple fractures in his right leg while rookie Dylan Strome failed to find consistency at the NHL level; two factors which created a need for Arizona. While it’s only a small sample, just two appearances for each player, the additions are already paying off for Arizona, writes Sarah McLellan of The Arizona Republic. Holland tallied two helpers in his Coyotes debut and scored the shootout winner in his return to Toronto. Again, it’s only to games but Holland’s play has helped the team to their first winning streak since late November; a stretch which saw the Coyotes earn just five of a possible 16 standings points.

Jonathan Quick Out Until Mid-February, Kings Not Willing To Overpay For Goaltender

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12:45pm: Lombardi is now telling Elliott that he misspoke today and though the worst case is still March, he actually expects Quick back in mid-February. While this lines up closer to what Sutter said on Monday, it still is a long-time for Quick to be sidelined.

11:45pm: The continuing saga of Jonathan Quick got another chapter today, as Los Angeles Kings GM Dean Lombardi told Helene Elliott of the LA Times that he’d be out until March. This comes after head coach Darryl Sutter said just two days ago that it’d be a month before the next step was even revealed.

Lombardi also told Elliott that he’s “not willing to throw the kitchen sink” at his goaltending situation, meaning that he doesn’t want to part with important assets to fix it. The team has been riding Peter Budaj this season to mixed success, as the 34-year old started hot but has struggled recently. Last night Budaj allowed four goals on 22 shots, marking four out of five games where he’s recorded a save percentage under .900. Jeff Zatkoff, brought in this offseason to be the backup, has struggled with injury and ineffectiveness himself, carrying an .882 save percentage through Wednesday.

The Kings, 14-12-2, are sitting fifth in the Pacific Division just outside a wild card spot but are in danger of slipping further and further should they not fix their goaltending situation. If Budaj can get back to the level he started the season at, perhaps the team would not need to find a solution outside the organization.

While there are talented options on the trade market – namely, Ben Bishop and Jimmy Howard – the Kings would have to take on a large amount of salary or give up substantial assets to get them. Though the team has a good amount of cap space currently due to Quick’s designation on LTIR, the team would be left unable to make any additional moves at the deadline for a playoff run, or in trouble should Quick make a return any earlier than expected.

A lesser option – like Ondrej Pavelec or Jonathan Bernier – comes with substantial risks as well and may not be any more effective than the Budaj-Zatkoff duo in the long run. For the Kings, it’s likely a game of trying to improve the team in front of them than spending assets for an answer in net.

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