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Jacob Trouba

RFA Notes

September 28, 2016 at 11:37 am CDT | by Brett Barrett 1 Comment

It’s been an unusual off-season in the NHL, with seven high profile Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) remaining a week into training camp. Compared to last off-season, when teams moved quickly to sign or trade players to avoid the threat of offer sheets.

In a series of tweets, TSN’s Bob McKenzie sent out the latest in negotiations from across the league.

Anaheim Ducks – Hampus Lindholm and Rickard Rakell – The Ducks are using Morgan Rielly and Seth Jones as comparable contracts, while Lindholm’s camp is pointing to Aaron Ekblad’s $7.5MM AAV. McKenzie clarifies that Lindholm isn’t asking for $7.5MM, more in the $6MM-plus range. McKenzie hasn’t been able to determine the range of numbers from the Rakell negotiations yet.

Arizona Coyotes – Tobias Rieder – The two sides are less than $500K apart. Rieder is currently looking for two years at $2.5MM per season, while the Coyotes aren’t budging on their offer of two years in the low $2MM range. Rieder does have KHL offers to consider, or McKenzie suggests he could ask for a trade or hold out.

Buffalo Sabres – Rasmus Ristolainen – The Sabres and Ristolainen are in the same situation as the Ducks and Lindholm, according to McKenzie. The two sides are at least $1MM apart, with each side standing firm with their comparables.

Calgary Flames – Johnny Gaudreau – This is likely the most fascinating case, as Gaudreau isn’t technically an RFA because he falls under the 10.2(c) CBA clause. Because Gaudreau hasn’t accrued three years experience, he isn’t eligible for an offer sheet and therefore has basically no power, other than holding out. McKenzie believes the Flames want Gaudreau to sign in the same range as Sean Monahan (six-years, $6.375MM per) and no higher than captain Mark Giordano ($6.75MM per), while Gauderau is looking for more than $8MM per season. The two sides have not negotiated recently, according to McKenzie, who called the situation “bit of a Cold War”.

Tampa Bay Lightning – Nikita Kucherov – If not Gaudreau, then Kucherov is definitely the most complex RFA situation due to the Lightning’s cap issues. While Kucherov has a long list of comparable contracts in the six-year, $36MM range, that’s not possible in the Lightning’s current state. They’ll need to move someone to accommodate another $6MM; McKenzie believes Ben Bishop will be traded sometime this season, but expects he’ll start the season in Tampa.

Winnipeg Jets – Jacob Trouba – There has been plenty of digital ink spilled on Trouba’s trade request, but the only new information from McKenzie was that Trouba is not interested in signing an offer sheet, because the Jets would not be allowed to trade him for a calendar year, should they match. That defeats the purpose of wanting to be traded.

It is still early in the season, but there is a firm deadline coming up: December 1st. Should an RFA not be signed by then, then he will be ineligible to play for the remainder of the season.

This is likely only a consideration for Trouba, with the Jets’ habit of slow-playing trade requests and waiting out poor trade offers.

Anaheim Ducks| Buffalo Sabres| Calgary Flames| RFA| Tampa Bay Lightning| Utah Mammoth| Winnipeg Jets Bob McKenzie| Hampus Lindholm| Jacob Trouba| Johnny Gaudreau| Nikita Kucherov| Rasmus Ristolainen| Rickard Rakell| Tobias Rieder

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Snapshots: World Cup Buzz, Shaw, Trouba

September 28, 2016 at 10:18 am CDT | by Brett Barrett Leave a Comment

Team Canada is one game away from winning the World Cup of Hockey after defeating Team Europe in Game One of the Finals on Tuesday night, but there was something noticeably missing in Toronto: a loud crowd.

Canada won 3-1 against Team Europe’s “best game of the tournament”, despite playing “nonchalant” according to TSN’s Frank Seravalli. However, the lack of a natural rivalry between them and a mixture of eight smaller European countries, combined with the relative ease with which Canada has rolled through this tournament lead to empty seats and a less-than-enthusiastic atmosphere.

Canadian defenseman Alex Pietrangelo told Greg Wyshnyski that “once the game got going, the excitement was there. But you play against the Americans, you play against the Russians, and it’s obviously different.”

Steven Stamkos noticed it too, saying the team’s other games had “away fans that were creating some noise. This was probably the team that had the least amount of support, just because of the makeup of the team in the tournament to start with.”

It’s unfortunate to see the relative lack of interest surrounding the final, especially after the buzz generated by Team North America earlier in the tournament.

In other news from around the hockey world:

  • Newly-acquired Montreal Canadiens forward Andrew Shaw has only played one game for his new team, and is already garnering attention from the NHL Department of Player Safety. Shaw hit Capitals’ rookie Connor Hobbs from behind after feeling he was slew-footed by Caps forward Jay Beagle. Shaw subsequently fought another rookie in Nathan Walker, and tried to pump up crowd mid-fight before landing the decisive blow.
  • With the news that Jacob Trouba has wanted out of Winnipeg since May, many analysts have wondered why the Oilers didn’t move Taylor Hall for Trouba, instead of Adam Larsson. However, Bob McKenzie gave TSN 1050 two reasons why a trade centered around Hall for Trouba didn’t materialize (transcribed by Chris Nichols from Today’s Slapshot). First, the Jets weren’t interesting in spending $6MM on Hall when they knew they would have Nik Ehlers, Patrik Laine, and Kyle Connor patrolling the port side for a considerably lower cost. Secondly, McKenzie believes the Oilers like Trouba, but doesn’t believe they are one of the frontrunners for his services. He points to Oilers coach Todd McLellan’s usage of Trouba at the World Cup for the U-24 team; Trouba didn’t crack the lineup until Aaron Ekblad was injured. The Oilers clearly rank Larsson as a better NHL defenseman today.

Edmonton Oilers| Snapshots| Team Canada| Team Europe| Todd McLellan| Winnipeg Jets Andrew Shaw| Bob McKenzie| Jacob Trouba| Taylor Hall| World Cup

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Jacob Trouba Not Happy With Winnipeg’s Defense Jam

September 26, 2016 at 6:41 pm CDT | by Mike Furlano 3 Comments

Jacob Trouba’s agent Kurt Overhardt spoke to TSN 1290 Winnipeg’s Hustler and Lawless today to expand on his client’s trade request. Among the clarifications offered the by the agent, the most significant was that Trouba does not feel that he can progress as a right-handed shot in the Jets’ lineup.

Overhardt told the radio hosts that his client was dissatisfied with the current roster situation and cited the fact that Trouba does not want to play on the left side just to garner adequate playing time. The agent states that Trouba cannot realize his potential in this system because he cannot play his natural position. The Jets have two significant right-handed defenseman in Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers, and Trouba thinks that those two are stifling his playing time on the right side.

More telling, however, is that the agent referenced a move to bring in a skilled defenseman last year that created the problem. That move is most likely the Evander Kane trade with Buffalo that brought back Tyler Myers. Trouba was likely asked to change sides to accomodate Myers, and that may have hampered his production. Overhardt then alluded that Trouba’s exit interviews last season exacerbated the situation—most likely by refusing to move Myers to the left side.

Some defenseman can play both sides, but most have a definite preference. Trouba’s production noticeably suffered since Myers’s arrival. The defenseman scored only 6P in 24 games in 2014-15 after Myers arrived on March 12, and then scored 8 less points in 16 more games than in his rookie season. It is possible that Trouba is just not developing as anticipated, but the player thinks the club and its roster situation is hampering his production, and that is why he is asking for a trade.

Winnipeg Jets Jacob Trouba

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Jets’ High Asking Price For Trouba

September 26, 2016 at 10:02 am CDT | by Brett Barrett Leave a Comment

TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie discussed Jacob Trouba’s trade request out of Winnipeg on TSN 690 in Montreal on Monday morning, saying, based on the asking price of a similar caliber left-shot defenseman, “not all that many teams that are positioned well to get him.”

On Sunday, Pro Hockey Rumors’ Zach Leach explored some of the teams that would have interest in the young Trouba.

The asking price has lead to names like Hampus Lindholm and Darnell Nurse being floated about. McKenzie doesn’t believe the Ducks are willing to move Lindholm for Trouba, as Lindholm is more proven at this time.

TSN’s Ryan Rishaug appeared on TSN 1260 in Edmonton later on Monday morning, saying if he was the Oilers he wouldn’t be willing to move Nurse to acquire Trouba, because the money wouldn’t make sense for someone who hasn’t shown an ability to produce on the power-play. Nurse has “home-run potential”, and Rishaug couldn’t guarantee that Trouba would be better than Nurse in four years.

Rishaug would be more willing to move young left-handed defenseman Brandon Davidson, who blossomed into a top-four defenseman last season, while adding draft picks.

The Jets have to ask for the moon initially, as a public trade request has a certain way of tanking a player’s perceived trade value. It’s why the Lightning ultimately didn’t trade Jonathan Drouin; the trade offers that come in for players publicly on the trading block are dramatically lower than what the team is willing to accept.

However, the Jets are right to ask for a major haul in exchange for Trouba according to Travis Yost, analytics columnist for TSN. Yost wrote that Trouba’s advanced stats are a “recipe to earmark a young player for a long career as a first-pairing type in the NHL.”

Anaheim Ducks| Edmonton Oilers| Winnipeg Jets Bob McKenzie| Darnell Nurse| Hampus Lindholm| Jacob Trouba

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Trouba Asks Out Of Winnipeg

September 24, 2016 at 8:20 pm CDT | by Glen Miller 4 Comments

Update (8:05pm): The Jets have indeed released a statement, which Custance shared via Twitter. In it, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff calls Trouba, “an important part of the long-term future of our club.” He continued by saying: “any decisions made regarding Jacob Trouba will be in the best interest interest of the Winnipeg Jets Hockey Club.”

Cheveldayoff also stated they would “continue to work dilligently to resolve this matter.”

It seems clear the Jets would much rather keep the young blue liner and the team holds nearly all of the cards in this situation. The only two options open to Trouba as a free agent are to sit out and not collect a paycheck or to sign in the KHL. Neither scenario is likely to hold much appeal for Trouba. The Jets might be open to moving Trouba but it sounds as if Cheveldayoff is ready to dig his heels in and only execute a deal if it makes sense for Winnipeg.

(7:04pm): Jacob Trouba’s agent, Kurt Overhardt, released a statement this afternoon officially asking the Winnipeg Jets to trade the restricted free agent defenseman. According to Darren Dreger, who just spoke with Trouba, the request has nothing to do with his feelings for the organization or the city of Winnipeg, but rather about opportunity and ice time. The Jets are deep in right-handed defensemen with Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers and Paul Postma all on the roster and capable of playing the right side.

Trouba was quoted by Dreger, again via tweet, saying: “I didn’t want it to get to this point. To not play is not what I want. This has nothing to do with money…it never has.”

Dreger later tweeted that several teams are unsurprisingly already interested in possibly acquiring Trouba. The Jets are expected to release a statement on the situation “shortly.”

Earlier today we updated the Trouba situation with Winnipeg with club executives saying they expected to sit down with the RFA defender and try to hammer out a new deal. Clearly Trouba’s trade request changes that outlook significantly.

It’s not clear what Winnipeg would demand from interested clubs in exchange for Trouba, but the price is likely to be high. Craig Custance of ESPN suggests the team could look for a comparable, young left-side defender in return. If not a fellow blue liner, perhaps the Jets would want to add a young goal-scorer as the team is returning just three wingers who topped 30 points or 15 goals, though that’s just my own speculation.

Trouba is coming off a 21-point campaign and averaged 22:04 of ice time per game for the Jets. Curiously, he ranked third among Winnipeg blue liners in ice time, just :33 less than Myers, which would seem to contradict part of Overhardt’s statement indicating the request was based on Trouba’s desire to be a top-four blue liner.

 

Newsstand| RFA| Winnipeg Jets Dustin Byfuglien| Jacob Trouba| Tyler Myers

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Latest On Jacob Trouba’s RFA Situation

September 24, 2016 at 3:08 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 2 Comments

Quite a bit of digital ink has been spilled this summer over restricted free agent defenseman Jacob Trouba, and his continuing negotiations with the Winnipeg Jets for his next contract. While speculation has been rampant around a possible trade (at one point he was linked to Boston on an offer sheet) or other transaction, the team has continued to try and re-sign him long term.

Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun caught up with Jets’ GM Kevin Cheveldayoff today to talk about Trouba, and he said just as much.

For us, Jacob is a big part of our organization. He’s someone we drafted and really believe in, long-term and moving forward.

Wiebe also says that talks are ongoing, and now that Trouba is back from the World Cup the two sides will try even harder to get something done before the beginning of the season. We profiled Trouba’s RFA case back in August, and examined his contemporaries and comparable players.

It’s tough for Winnipeg to work something out long-term when they’re unsure of what Trouba is eventually going to become. While his advanced stats profile out to a top-pairing defenseman, he can battle consistency at times (like many young players) and is clearly third or fourth on the depth chart. With almost $20MM tied up already in Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom and Tyler Myers through 2018, extending a long-term deal at a high cap hit will be difficult.

For every day a contract isn’t done, Trouba loses time to work with his teammates and build up towards this season. While he’s already expected to be in good shape due to his stint at the World Cup, every minute of a missed training camp can effect how you perform on the ice in the first few months. If the Jets plan on pushing for a playoff spot this season, they need their entire compliment of defensemen playing at the top of their game from night one.

Players| RFA| Winnipeg Jets Dustin Byfuglien| Jacob Trouba| World Cup

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Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Wennberg, DeHaan, Zibanejad

September 23, 2016 at 4:52 pm CDT | by Glen Miller Leave a Comment

Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.

Alexander Wennberg (Columbus) – Wennberg was the Blue Jackets first-round pick in 2013, selected 14th overall. He debuted in the NHL during the 2014-15 season and finished with 20 points in 68 contests. He bumped his production up significantly in year two, recording 40 points in 69 games and flashing top-six potential.

Wennberg is more playmaker than goal scorer as his career 4-to-1 assist-to-goal ratio suggests. Washington’s Marcus Johansson posted similar career numbers through the expiration of his ELC with 33 goals and 62 assists in 183 contests; good for a points-per-game rate of 0.52. Johansson would sign a two-year contract worth $4MM total following the 2012-13 campaign.

The career production numbers between the two pivots should look similar given Wennberg tallies 40-plus points in close to a full slate of games in 2016-17 and would therefore be looking at a bridge deal right around the $2MM mark annually. Given Johansson’s second contract will be four years old, inflation could take that figure closer to $2.5MM per year. A longer term would appear unlikely as the Jackets will still have several inflated contracts on the books, including those of Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson and Brandon Dubinsky.

Calvin de Haan (New York Islanders) – Now 25, de Haan is now at the age many defensemen peak in terms of production. Originally the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft, de Haan has already established himself as one of the Islanders best defenders and will once again fill a spot in the club’s top-four. If he can stay healthy for a full slate of games and perhaps contribute a touch more in the offensive end, de Haan could set himself up for a nice raise on the $1.97MM AAV his current contract calls for.

Teammate Travis Hamonic, drafted by the Islanders in the second-round in 2008, is a bit more prolific offensively but should help us gauge de Haan’s potential value as a top-four defender. Upon the expiration of his ELC, Hamonic signed a seven-year, $27MM deal with an AAV of $3.857MM. By that time, Hamonic was already averaging better than 22 minutes of ice time and 0.33 points-per-game. If the two parties explore a long-term arrangement, it’s likely de Haan can point to Hamonic’s deal as a comparable.

Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) – As part of their overall team commitment to get younger and quicker this summer, the Rangers acquired the 23-year-old pivot from Ottawa in exchange for fellow center, Derick Brassard. Zibanejad, the Senators first-round pick in 2011, sixth overall, has steadily improved his offensive production since debuting as a regular during the strike-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Last season was Zibanejad’s best, with the Swede compiling 21 goals and 51 points in 81 contests.

A player with a similar pedigree, former high first-round choice and relatively consistent point-producer, Nazem Kadri, inked a six-year extension worth $27MM in April and that deal should serve as a reasonable target for Zibanejad. Kadri has averaged 0.59 points-per-game over the three seasons prior to his extension – 134 points in 227 games. Zibanejad, meanwhile, has averaged 0.57 points-per-contest the last three years – 130 points in 230 games.

Zibanejad is entering the final season of the two-year bridge deal he signed with Ottawa, paying the five-year veteran $2.625MM per season. A repeat of his 2015-16 performance this upcoming season should give Zibanejad a good chance to match the level of Kadri’s extension. But, if Kadri takes the next step in his development and makes a push for the 60-point threshold, he could see his value escalate to $5MM and up per season.

Columbus Blue Jackets| Free Agency| NHL| New York Islanders| New York Rangers| Ottawa Senators| Players| RFA Derick Brassard| Jack Johnson| Jacob Trouba| Johnny Gaudreau| Marcus Johansson| Mika Zibanejad| Nazem Kadri| Nikita Kucherov

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Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Johansen, Parayko, Teravainen

September 22, 2016 at 3:15 pm CDT | by Glen Miller Leave a Comment

Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish with the Central Division and move to the Metro.

Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – In Ryan Johansen, the Predators finally have that elusive #1 center they have lacked since the organization’s inception nearly two decades ago. In a rare “hockey trade” that benefited both parties, Nashville acquired Johansen from Columbus in exchange for Seth Jones, a potential franchise defenseman and something the Blue Jackets have sorely needed.

Johansen has tallied at least 60 points in each of the last three seasons and scored a career-best 71 as a 22-year-old during the 2014-15 campaign. On the downside, his goal scoring output has decreased from a career-high 33 in 2013-14 to 26 the following season and to just 14 in 2015-16. That’s likely the direct result of a shooting percentage of just 7.6%, a figure which was more than five points below the combined shooting percentage the two previous seasons. Simply converting shots at his normal rate would have resulted in a 24 – 25 goal campaign.

The Predators have done a marvelous job of locking up their core pieces to bargain long-term deals. Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Craig Smith and Mattias Ekholm have all recently inked extensions with Nashville at AAVs below what each player could have received on the open market. The trade-off for higher salaries during RFA years is cost-certainty and buying out free agent years below market value. Expect Nashville to employ the same strategy with Johansen.

Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon have each established themselves as 60-point producers and received extensions with an AAV in excess of $6MM. Aleksander Barkov, coming off a career-best 59-point season, signed a six-year, $35.4MM deal with Florida. All three, however, were coming off their ELCs while Johansen is entering the final season of his second contract. That means any long-term deal would buy out more free agent seasons and typically that tends to be more expensive. Based on the comparable deals and his proximity to free agency, a long-term contract for Johansen could well approach or even reach $7MM annually.

Colton Parayko (St. Louis) – Parayko came out of nowhere to earn a regular job on the Blues blue line and posted a solid scoring line of 9-24=33 in 79 contests as a rookie. He boasts a hard shot from the point and tremendous size at 6-foot-6 and 226 pounds. Currently, Parayko is skating in the World Cup as a member of Team North America, flashing his abilities on the international stage.

With only a single season of NHL experience, gauging Parayko’s potential value is difficult. However, if he approximates his 2015-16 production levels this upcoming season, the four-year, $19.5MM contract awarded to Sami Vatanen by the Ducks could prove to be a reasonable comparable.

Vatanen posted campaigns of 37 and 38 points in 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively before inking his current deal. Like Parayko, Vatanen is also a right-handed defenseman, which is more difficult to find than their counterparts on the left side.

St. Louis could counter with Ryan Ellis as a comparable. Ellis signed a five-year, $12.5MM contract in October of 2014 following a 27-point campaign with the Predators. But most would argue Ellis is worth more than that AAV and consequently Parayko would be too. It’s also possible the Blues would prefer to go with a bridge contract with a lower AAV than Parayko would be able to get on a long-term deal.

Teuvo Teravainen (Carolina) – The Hurricanes took advantage of Chicago’s salary cap woes and in exchange for agreeing to take on the final season of Bryan Bickell’s $4MM-a-year-deal, were rewarded with the skilled Teravainen. Much was expected from the young Finn following the 2014-15 postseason that saw Teravainen record 10 points in 18 games as the Hawks won their third Stanley Cup in six seasons. While a 35-point campaign as a 21-year-old is solid, Teravainen’s skill suggests there is even more scoring potential.

It makes sense to stick with the Hurricanes when looking for a comparable since doing so offers insight to how the club values their RFAs. Earlier this summer, Carolina agreed to a six-year, $24MM extension with Swedish center Victor Rask. Rask was coming off a breakout campaign which saw the 23-year-old pivot post career-highs in both goals (21) and assists (27). More importantly, his first NHL season mirrored Teravainen’s in terms of production as Rask netted 11 goals and 33 points in 80 games for the Canes in 2014-15. If Teravainen follows the same path and boosts his offensive production into the 45-point range, a contract similar to that of Rask’s would seem a safe bet.

Anaheim Ducks| Carolina Hurricanes| Columbus Blue Jackets| Free Agency| NHL| Nashville Predators| Players| RFA| St. Louis Blues| Team North America Bryan Bickell| Colton Parayko| Filip Forsberg| Jacob Trouba| Johnny Gaudreau| Nathan MacKinnon| Nikita Kucherov| Salary Cap| World Cup

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2016-17 Season Preview: Winnipeg Jets

September 18, 2016 at 7:52 pm CDT | by Brett Barrett Leave a Comment

With the NHL season just weeks away, PHR is looking at each team, in-depth. Today: the Winnipeg Jets.

Last Season: 35-39-8 (78 points), 7th place in the Central Division. Did not qualify for the playoffs.

Cap Space Remaining: $9.37MM  via CapFriendly.

Key Newcomers: Patrik Laine (LW/ RW) – NHL Draft (2nd overall in 2016); Shawn Matthias(LW) – free agency (Colorado); Kyle Connor (C/ LW) – NHL Draft (17th overall in 2015)

Key Departures: none

Key RFAs: Jacob Trouba – The two sides appear far apart on everything: money, term, and usage. Right now, Trouba is blocked on the right side by Dustin Byfuglien (who is set to begin a new five-year extension worth $7.6MM per season) and Tyler Myers. It will be interesting to see how the Jets proceed; they have the salary space to sign him but also have depth at the position, which gives them the upper hand. There has been some trade rumors surrounding Trouba, but those have been repeatedly shot down by those who cover the team.

Player to Watch: Patrik Laine – The Jets lucked out at the draft lottery, jumping for 6th overall to second and the chance to take Laine. There was even talk of the Maple Leafs selecting Laine over Auston Matthews, but that never materialized. Laine has been compared to Alex Ovechkin for his explosive release. Laine should be able to step in immediately and give the Jets a great second line. Expect 20+ goals and plenty of flash.

Key Storyline: Can the Jets young core avoid growing pains? With Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Laine, and Trouba all expected to play big roles this season, will they be able to use their skill to overcome relative inexperience? And in net, can one of Ondrej Pavelec, Michael Hutchinson, or Connor Hellebuyck step up and take over the number one job? The three netminders split the net pretty evenly last season, so the door is open for one to grab the reigns and run with it.

Jets’ Depth Chart

Winnipeg Jets Connor Hellebuyck| Jacob Trouba| Michael Hutchinson| Ondrej Pavelec| Patrik Laine| Season Previews

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Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Panarin, Faksa, Niederreiter

September 16, 2016 at 6:33 pm CDT | by Glen Miller 1 Comment

Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. We move on to the Central Division.

Artemi Panarin (Chicago) – The 2015-16 Calder Trophy recipient can set himself up for a monster payday with another 30-goal, 70-point campaign in 2016-17. Panarin surprised many by quickly acclimating to North America and putting up huge offensive numbers right away. He kicked off the season with a goal in game one against the Rangers and remained consistent throughout the campaign finishing just one month – February – with fewer than 10 points.

The first name that comes to mind as a potential comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who netted 37 goals and totaled 73 points before receiving an eight-year extension from St. Louis with an AAV of $7.5MM. Another possibility would be Filip Forsberg, who averaged 30 goals and nearly 64 points in each of the two full seasons prior to inking his new $6MM-a-year deal.

As they do every summer, seemingly, Chicago will be confronted with a cap crunch and will be looking to try to save as much money as possible on Panarin’s next contract. A trade is always a possibility, as they did with Brandon Saad, but it’s hard to imagine the Hawks dealing away two dynamic young talents just two years apart. Best guess is Chicago pushes for something closer to $6MM per on a long term deal and Panarin’s camp asking for something closer to $7MM.

Radek Faksa (Dallas) – Ordinarily, a five-goal, 12-point rookie debut wouldn’t generate much interest but with another season to go before reaching restricted free agency, and all of the offensive firepower the Stars have accumulated, it’s possible the big and skilled Faksa enjoys a real breakout campaign in 2016-17. Faksa is 22, set to turn 23 in January. He’s at an age where players tend to hit their stride and with well over 100 professional games on his resume, Faksa now has invaluable experience to go along with his skill.

The other factor that will make this a potentially interesting negotiation is the Stars cap situation. The team should have around $25MM in available space but with only 11 players signed for 2017-18, the Stars will have to be judicious with their spending. A big sophomore campaign for Faksa will complicate matters for the Stars and their ability to replace other veteran players likely to depart after the season.

At this point, the best guess is likely a bridge deal for Faksa. Even presuming a productive 2016-17 season, he won’t have much of a track record to bank on. Depending on the quality of Faksa’s 2016-17 campaign, a contract comparable to the one-year deals inked by Zemgus Girgensons or Mikhail Grigorenko – for $1.15MM and $1.3MM respectively – could be a fair compromise. Girgensons had a solid 2014-15 season, scoring 15 goals and 30 points before struggling to an 18-point year in 2015-16. Grigorenko posted a scoring line of 6-21=27 for Colorado this past season as a 22-year-old.

If Faksa enjoys a better platform year, then perhaps the two-year, $5.5MM pact J.T. Miller and the Rangers settled on this summer is something the Czech center can shoot for. Miller bested his previous career highs in goals by 12 and points by 20 during the 2015-16 campaign and earned roughly a 300% bump in pay as a result. Faksa has the talent and may get the opportunity in Dallas to post that same type of breakout performance for the Stars.

Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota) – Niederreiter has quietly put together consecutive 20-goal campaigns and established a career best with 43 points in 2015-16 for the Minnesota Wild. He is entering the final season of a two-year, bridge contract that comes with an AAV of $2.67MM.

Niederreiter’s previous two seasons compare favorably to those of New York Rangers winger Chris Kreider. Kreider has tallied back-to-back 21-goal campaigns and combined for 89 points over that span. The big Swiss winger, on the other hand, has totaled 44 goals and 80 points over the last two years. Kreider finished his two-year bridge deal – AAV of $2.475 – and signed a four-year contract worth $18.5MM. That might represent a solid blue print for Niederreiter’s next pact.

Dallas Stars| Free Agency| Minnesota Wild| New York Rangers| Players| RFA| Uncategorized Artemi Panarin| Chris Kreider| Filip Forsberg| J.T. Miller| Jacob Trouba| Johnny Gaudreau| Mikhail Grigorenko| Nikita Kucherov

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