Looking At Five 2023 Non-Qualified UFA Targets
The 2023 unrestricted free agent class may be disappointing, especially with some high-profile names like Stanley Cup champions Ivan Barbashev and Adin Hill coming off the board in recent days. However, the market did get a bit of a boost in the last 24 hours thanks to a slew of buyouts and the qualifying offer deadline, which saw over 100 restricted free agents get released by their teams to unrestricted status tomorrow. With that being said, it’s time to take a look at some of the more intriguing targets now available for teams to sign.
Each player’s former team is listed in parentheses. You can find the full list of RFAs that went unqualified here.
D Ethan Bear (VAN)
The summer will likely end with Bear re-signing in Vancouver, but there’s nothing stopping him from heading elsewhere if a team comes calling. He could last a bit into the summer as he recovers from a shoulder injury sustained while playing at the IIHF Men’s World Championship, though.
After not really finding a role in the Carolina Hurricanes lineup, Bear had a very solid season with the Canucks, posting 16 points in 61 games and providing high-end two-way play for a team that desperately needed it. Add in the fact he’s a right shot and still only 26 years old, and he makes for a rather appealing target that would have landed on our top 50 unrestricted free agents list for 2023.
He’s likely to earn a two-to-three-year deal, probably slightly under his $2.2MM qualifying offer. If so, all signs point to it being one of the better value signings of a summer poised to see some overpayments out of need in a weak UFA class.
F Denis Gurianov (MTL)
Things have been downhill for the 2015 12th overall pick since he logged 20 goals in his rookie season, a feat he hasn’t matched since. After sliding back out of a consistent top-nine role with the Dallas Stars, he was dealt to the Montreal Canadiens at the deadline in exchange for Evgenii Dadonov, a move that may have paid dividends for both sides. Gurianov did show a bit of a resurgence with the Habs, scoring five goals and eight points in 23 games, looking more engaged than he did with the Stars. The Habs will likely attempt to get a deal done here, but he wasn’t worth the $2.9MM qualifying offer he was due.
This is not a case of analytics suggesting a breakout, though, in fact, it’s the opposite. There are red flags nearly everywhere in his profile, suggesting he’s a liability in isolation. There is still some obvious raw skill with Gurianov, though, and for a cheap cost, he could put up some higher point totals with picture-perfect chemistry. It remains to be seen whether he’ll ever find that.
D Caleb Jones (CHI)
The counting stats here aren’t the prettiest, but advanced metrics have long tabbed Jones as an effective player for his role. Last season, Jones’ -19 rating may not have been pretty, but he also logged nearly 20 minutes a night on a lottery team. In fact, Jones logged a career-high relative Corsi for percentage at even strength of 4.8%, and his 16 points in 73 games were a career-high.
He’ll never break the bank offensively from the blue line, nor should you expect him to, but he’s got an underrated ability to drive play and proved this season he can take on more serious minutes against tougher competition. Add in the fact he can play both the left and right side, and he should be quite a good value signing for a team looking to bolster their third pair (or potentially second).
At 26, though, Jones was nearing retirement age on a very youthful Chicago blueline, and they decided to cut ties to make room for more of their future talent. He shouldn’t cost much more than $2MM on a one-year offer.
F Daniel Sprong (SEA)
Sprong easily jumps out as the most tantalizing target here. Quickly overtaking Dale Weise for the “Dutch Gretzky” title (sorry, Canadiens fans), Sprong has grown into one of the most efficient per-minute scorers in the league. He’s notched at least 13 goals in four of the last five seasons, never averaging more than 13 minutes per game – in fact, he scored 21 goals (and 46 points) in just 66 games with the Kraken this year despite staying squarely in a fourth-line role, averaging 11:25 per game. He was 17th in the NHL in goals per 60 minutes this season among skaters with at least 25 games.
With that, he’s set himself up for more ice time and more money. He was eligible for arbitration and likely would’ve garnered a rich reward for his production – a number Seattle didn’t want to pay. That doesn’t mean another team won’t, although an underwhelming playoff performance may scare some teams off. For a fringe team looking to add a high-octane option to its top nine, though, look no further than the 26-year-old Sprong.
He could very well command above the $3MM mark on a short-term but multi-year deal, especially from a team slated toward the bottom of the league standings. He jumps out as an attractive option for teams like the Arizona Coyotes, who could bank on Sprong’s production maintaining (or even increasing) with a slight bump in minutes, parlaying it into a valuable trade at next year’s deadline. Signing him to a two- or three-year deal with cost certainty as the salary cap rises would only add to his trade value.
F Sam Steel (MIN)
Steel is the only unqualified RFA who can say they were a number-one center last year. However, it was by necessity – with the Minnesota Wild needing Joel Eriksson Ek to round out their top-six on their second line, it was an in-and-out swap all year between Steel and Ryan Hartman between their pair of star wings in Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. Steel did have a career-high 10 goals and 28 points in 65 games, but you’d expect more for someone who spent over 350 minutes with Kaprizov and Zuccarello this season – especially from a former first-round pick.
That being said, you could do worse for a third-line center. Steel isn’t a liability defensively, and while he may not be able to translate his offensive acumen to the scoresheet in the NHL, he won’t take points away from those around him and can survive as a complementary player.
Still, with uninspiring production in Minnesota, he wasn’t a candidate to stick around, as the team needs every dollar available to them to stay in playoff contention. He’s flashed the least upside at the NHL level of any of the five players listed, although he does carry some certainty in terms of his defensive impacts and offensive production that others here don’t offer.
Other targets to watch: F Nathan Bastian (NJD), G Mackenzie Blackwood (SJS), F Max Comtois (ANA), F Morgan Geekie (SEA), F Tyson Jost (BUF), F Klim Kostin (DET), F Denis Malgin (COL), F Michael McLeod (NJD), F Jesse Puljujarvi (CAR)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Free Agency Notes: Kings, Kurashev, Merkley
The Los Angeles Kings have been busy over the last couple of months, shipping out Calvin Petersen and Sean Walker to the Philadelphia Flyers, as well as acquiring and extending Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets most recently. After those moves, the Kings have a little over $4.5MM in cap space, with only 15 roster spots filled, according to CapFriendly. Due to the nature of their cap situation, it is more than unlikely that trade deadline acquisition, Joonas Korpisalo, will be retained by the team.
Los Angeles, who currently only has Pheonix Copley under contract to mind the net, will be looking for another goalie to pair with him next season. Dennis Bernstein of The Fourth Period has shed some light on how exactly the Kings are looking to fill that hole in their lineup, reporting that Los Angeles is looking for a goalie in the $1MM-$1.5MM range. It is unknown at the time if the Kings are planning on using Copley as their main starter next year, but it will be tough to find a goalie better than him at that price.
Many teams still have time to qualify their eventual restricted free agents, so Los Angeles may have some options available to them after that list is more well-known. At the time, in that range of salary, the Kings will likely be looking at goalies such as Alex Stalock or David Rittich, and even a potential bounce-back candidate in Alex Nedeljkovic.
Other notes:
- Charlie Roumeliotis of NBC Chicago reports that the only restricted free agent on the Chicago Blackhawks to receive a qualifying offer will be Philipp Kurashev. This means that Anders Bjork, Austin Wagner, and Caleb Jones will all go to the open market on Saturday. Jones is one of the more surprising players not to receive a qualifying offer, as he was originally brought in from the Edmonton Oilers to play with his brother, Seth Jones. Caleb is not a game-breaking player by any means but did eat just over 19 minutes a night for Chicago this season while also bringing quite the physical presence to their back end. Given that his qualifying offer would have been $1.35MM, and the Blackhawks are not in a cap crunch, it is likely that he will be playing for another team next season.
- The Colorado Avalanche did not issue a qualifying offer to defenseman Ryan Merkley, as reported by Peter Baugh of The Athletic. Merkley was originally acquired by the Avalanche along with Matthew Nieto from the San Jose Sharks for Martin Kaut and Jacob MacDonald. Coming into the 2018 NHL Draft, Merkley was one of the most talented players in the draft, but questions about his attitude and work ethic led to his slide to 21st overall. Failing to turn a corner in his professional career, Merkley will head to unrestricted free agency this Saturday.
Blackhawks Activate Tyler Johnson Off IR
The Blackhawks will welcome a veteran forward back into their lineup tonight as the team announced that center Tyler Johnson has been activated off injured reserve and will suit up against Washington.
The 32-year-old had gotten off to a nice start to his season with two goals and four assists in his first six games. However, in that sixth contest back in late October, he suffered an ankle injury, one that has kept him out for the last 20 contests.
With Chicago certainly isn’t looking to make a push for the playoffs, getting Johnson back and into game shape will help give them some stability in their middle six while he should be able to at least slightly bolster an offense that comes into tonight’s action ranked last in the league in goals scored. He’ll start on the third line for the time being.
While the Blackhawks will be sellers over the next few months, Johnson almost certainly won’t be among those that they’re able to move. He has another year left on his contract after this one with a $5MM AAV plus partial no-trade protection. In this market, with so many teams lacking cap space, that’s not a deal they’re easily going to be able to move.
The team also confirmed that goaltender Petr Mrazek was activated off IR and he will get the start against the Caps. Jaxson Stauber has been returned to AHL Rockford in a corresponding move. However, it’s not all good news on the injury front when it comes to players returning as Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times notes (Twitter link) that defenseman Caleb Jones isn’t quite ready to come back from his hip injury.
Injury Updates: McCabe, Jones, Hagg, Sundqvist, Dubois
Blackhawks defenseman Jake McCabe has been cleared for contact after undergoing cervical spine surgery in the offseason, reports NBC Sports Chicago’s Charlie Roumeliotis. However, he’ll still need time to get into game conditioning and at this point, it seems unlikely that he’ll be ready to play during their three-game road trip to start the season. However, a return for their first home game on October 21st appears to be a realistic possibility. While Chicago certainly isn’t planning on contending this season, getting a veteran back that’s capable of playing 20 minutes a night can only help. Meanwhile, Roumeliotis adds (Twitter link) that blueliner Caleb Jones is also unlikely to play in Wednesday’s opener but should play later on in the trip.
Other injury news from around the NHL:
- Red Wings defenseman Robert Hagg had a rough start to his Detroit career, taking a puck to the head that has kept him out of preseason action so far. However, he told reporters including Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press that he has been cleared to play although he won’t play in tonight’s preseason finale. Hagg signed a one-year deal after fellow offseason acquisition Mark Pysyk underwent Achilles surgery but might have to settle for starting as an extra defender to start with no exhibition action under his belt.
- Still with Detroit, center Oskar Sundqvist is expected to be ready for Friday’s season-opener against Montreal, relays Ted Kulfan of The Detroit News (Twitter link). He has been battling an undisclosed injury throughout training camp and has yet to see any preseason action. The 28-year-old was acquired from St. Louis near the trade deadline last season and did relatively well in his first stint with the Red Wings, collecting four goals and four assists in 18 games down the stretch.
- Jets forward Pierre-Luc Dubois exited yesterday’s game after the first period but the injury is not believed to be a serious one, notes Scott Billeck of the Winnipeg Sun. Head coach Rick Bowness indicated that the 24-year-old had a minor lower-body issue that flared up so they pulled him out as a precaution. Despite leaving early, Dubois had his first two goals of the preseason on Friday and should be ready to return for their season opener on Friday.