Red Wings Roster Crunch: Analyzing the Forwards
What will the Detroit Red Wings do as the exhibition season only has one week left? General manager Ken Holland had a lot of people scratching their heads when it came to his offseason signings, no one more than Steve Ott, who adds an element of grit, but already irritated the Red Wings faithful with his hit on teammate Tomas Nosek during a scrimmage. Holland made it a priority to get “tougher” and while that’s certainly a sure bet with Ott in Detroit, head coach Jeff Blashill wants to feature speed in his lineup, which favors the younger players.
So what to expect if you’re a Red Wings fan? Seasons past certainly favors the veterans, but with Anthony Mantha having a solid preseason and Andreas Athanasiou picking up where he left off, it would certainly behoove the Wings to watch those two younger players closer than just sending them back to Grand Rapids because they’re safe getting through waivers. Three seasons ago, the Wings did just that with Gustav Nyquist, who when finally given the chance, went on a torrential scoring binge that helped the Wings into the playoffs.
Sure Bets
Henrik Zetterberg, Dylan Larkin, Justin Abdelkader, Tomas Tatar, Frans Nielsen, Gustav Nyquist, Thomas Vanek, Darren Helm, Riley Sheahan, Luke Glendening, Steve Ott.
These guys are all in, though Zetterberg is still iffy based on his knee. Should he not play, it would open up a spot for one of the younger kids to get a chance to stick longer with the big club. Nielsen is looking like a great pickup after he had a terrific World Cup of Hockey performance, along with teammate Tomas Tatar. Larkin has looked strong on his skates and made immediate contributions upon his return from the World Cup. He will also move to center, relinquishing Zetterberg from a heavier workload. Abdelkader, Helm, and Glendening will be counted on to grit out scoring chances and chip in with goals. Detroit is hoping Vanek will have a bounce back year with at least 20 goals. Sheahan, who has also been strong in the preseason, is also being looked upon to add more in scoring.
This is where it gets interesting. Miller and Ott’s contracts can be buried in the AHL because of the minimal amount they’re making: Ott at $800K and Miller at $1.025MM. Ott will most assuredly be on the opening night roster, but isn’t guaranteed to stay there. Ott will make the roster only because the team is in love with the grit narrative that doomed Team USA in the World Cup.
Though it bothers Red Wings fans that the loyalty is shown to players like Miller, who despite supposed penalty killing prowess, adds very little in terms of productivity on the ice at full strength. Going off of previous trends, it’s a safe bet that Miller will most likely end up on the Detroit roster, which if it sends Athanasiou and Mantha to Grand Rapids, will cause the fanbase to howl with disgust.
Finally, should Nyquist get the ice time he deserves, he should have no problem reaching the 20 goal plateau and in theory, should get close to his first 30 goal campaign.
Bubble players:
Martin Frk, Tomas Nosek, Tyler Bertuzzi Anthony Mantha, and Andreas Athanasiou.
With Mantha and Athanasiou making strong cases, it should give Holland pause as to going with his “over ripen” strategy and sending younger players to the minors. Mantha beefed up in the offseason and has been a force on the ice, netting goals in consecutive games. Athanasiou has been his usual disruptive self, using his speed to force turnovers and make plays on the offensive side of the ice. But basing it off previous Detroit decision making, no matter what the younger players do, unless they prove them indispensible as Larkin did last preseason, they will end up in the AHL because of the “Red Wings way” of favoring veterans.
Frk is an interesting case. After struggling and going back to the ECHL to retool his game, he has been steady and making his case during the preseason. The problem is Frk is not waiver exempt and would likely be claimed should he be exposed.
Bertuzzi is scrappy and has a knack to find the net, but needs just a little more seasoning before making the final roster–not to mention that Mantha and Athanasiou will block his path.
Nosek will start the season in the AHL with chances to make appearances in Detroit should there be injuries.
Injured: Teemu Pulkkinen and Tomas Jurco.
Jurco is not expected back until November while Pulkkinen is projected to play later this week.
Long Term Injured Reserve: Johan Franzen and Joe Vitale.
2016-17 Season Preview: Detroit Red Wings
With the NHL preseason underway, PHR continues to look at every team prior to the regular season. Today, we look at the Detroit Red Wings.
Last season: 41-30-11 (93 points); Finished 3rd in the Atlantic; Lost 4-1 to Tampa Bay in the first round.
Cap Space Remaining: -$4.24MM via CapFriendly.
Key Newcomers: F Thomas Vanek (signed as free agent); F Frans Nielsen (signed as free agent from New York Islanders); F Steve Ott (signed as free agent from St. Louis), F Dylan Sadowy (acquired from San Jose).
Key Departures: D Kyle Quincey (signed with New Jersey).
Player to Watch: Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar: Both saw their numbers fall last season, but a lot of that, after looking at advanced stats and ice time, show a difference in terms of how the two were utilized. Not having two players on the ice who have a knack to score goals is detrimental to their development, confidence, and ultimately, the team’s success. Both Tatar and Nyquist were supposed to have the baton handed to them as Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk slowed. But head coach Jeff Blashill, who admitted his own culpability in their regression, has to be better in deploying the two goal scorers. Nyquist and Tatar, should they see the ice time they were afforded in the past, should return to their true form. Blashill has promised more minutes and a greater insistence on them.
Key Storylines: Will the Red Wings entrust this team to younger, faster, and hungrier players? Looking at teams who have seen success by allowing their younger players to play, the Red Wings are at a critical juncture in the salary cap era. Ken Holland is being scrutinized by fans and analysts for his summer of “the same” where he brought back familiar faces at much higher prices–Darren Helm immediately comes to mind. This makes some fans leery as Holland promised big changes–though he did add Vanek, and Nielsen, players who should improve the scoring woes. Reports from Darren Dreger cite that Holland balked at the asking price for Jacob Trouba and while it can be speculated that either Anthony Mantha or Dylan Larkin were asked for, Holland felt comfortable enough with his defense, though others aren’t as sure. Much was written about the Wings’ need for defense, but Holland apparently is happy with what already sits in the pipeline.
The mindset for the Wings brass seems to be one that is fine limping into the playoffs only to be bounced early. It’s a team that has for too long, relied on veterans in a league that favors the younger, speedier player. Training camp will reveal clues early should Andreas Athanasiou and Mantha both be sent down, or be healthy scratches while Drew Miller, Luke Glendening and Steve Ott play on the fourth line. Will this team learn from the sins of season’s past? Or will the organization still continue its “just do enough” strategy to make the playoffs instead of looking ahead to what could be a very painful future?
Roster Crunch: Atlantic Division
Over the past few days, we’ve looked at the final few spots on the roster for both the Pacific and Central divisions. This time, we’ll turn our attention to the East starting with the Atlantic. This division will be in turmoil over the next few years, with clubs like the Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs going through slow, deliberate rebuilds, and perennial contending squads like the Detroit Red Wings finally starting to slow down.
Florida Panthers – While the Panthers have pretty much accomplished everything they set out to do this off-season – improving the blueline with Keith Yandle and Jason Demers, getting a capable replacement for Roberto Luongo in James Reimer, and locking up their young core – they failed in one, big $5.5MM way. Dave Bolland failed his physical and therefor couldn’t be bought out. He’ll try to prove he deserves some playing time this season, but may find himself buried in the AHL to make room for Jared McCann, the prize Florida received when they dealt Erik Gudbranson to the Canucks.
Are The Red Wings In Hockey Limbo?
The Hockey News’ Matt Larkin writes an interesting piece on the status of the Detroit Red Wings–a quarter of a century perennial playoff participant who seems to be at a crossroads. There hasn’t been much written about it though there are the obligatory “will the Red Wings finally miss the playoffs” prediction columns every season since Nick Lidstrom retired. And there’s good reason for that.
Since the retirement of Lidstrom, the Red Wings have been stuck in neutral. Though a “tough out” in 2013 and 2015, the Red Wings were bounced quickly in 2014 and 2016. Worse, they haven’t been viewed a legitimate contender since at best, the 2011-2012 NHL season–where they lost in five games to the Nashville Predators in the first round.
Larkin argues that the only person who can answer the question of the Wings’ Limbo status is architect and general manager Ken Holland. The Wings’ GM had a busy summer trading Pavel Datsyuk‘s contract and adding several players in Frans Nielsen, Thomas Vanek, and Steve Ott while re-signing Darren Helm, Petr Mrazek, Luke Glendening, Danny DeKeyser, and Drew Miller. But the moves were critiqued, especially the long term deals for players who were hardly setting the world afire on the stat sheet.
Larkin writes that Holland has a point when he says the Red Wings are not scraping the bottom of the barrel. They have a number of young core players, but with Ott, Vanek, and Miller all taking up roster space, it makes the margin of error thin for those young players in Andreas Athanasiou and Anthony Mantha. Larkin also reports that Holland feels that if a few breaks went the Wings way, perhaps they beat the Blackhawks in 2013 or the Lightning in 2015.
But that misses the point. Hockey is a sport that often comes down to luck. Many would argue that the Wings received their share of fortunate bounces during the years they won the Cup.
The point, made by many fans, is that the Red Wings haven’t been in a spot to even challenge for a Cup. Further, there has been a loyalty given to players in the Wings system or past-their-prime veterans that makes Holland feel like it’s 1999 again. In many ways, it appears that the Wings are committed to a “just barely make the playoffs” mentality and then hoping for the best. Several of Holland’s quotes all but support this.
Larkin takes a bullish view, saying that the Wings have an upside to them. But a prominent voice of Red Wings fans has made a strong point several times this summer–wondering if the financial decisions combined with the insistence on keeping veterans at the expense of younger, hungrier players will doom the team to the very long rebuild Holland loathes. Simply put: what’s the plan and even more terrifying to some fans–what will the result be?
We’ll all see soon.
Snapshots: Predators, Strome, Athanasiou
The Nashville Predators are gearing up for an exciting season writes Adam Vingan of the Tennessean. Vingan makes his case for a trio of predictions as the season approaches. He writes that the over/under should be set at 35 goals for Filip Forsberg, but sees him falling short of 40. As for newly acquired defenseman P.K. Subban, Vingan bets that Subban will easily break 60 points. Vingan sees Pekka Rinne‘s as playing better than last season, but cautions that it may not be significant enough to warrant a dramatic improvement. He also points out that it was Rinne’s up and down play that made the Predators inconsistent.
In other NHL news:
- Arizona Coyotes forward Dylan Strome says he’s done with junior hockey and the timing couldn’t be more impeccable. With the Coyotes buying out the contract of Antoine Vermette earlier today, the path seems clear for the 19-year-old forward. Craig Hagerman writes that the 2015 third overall pick is ready for the next step in his career after posting consecutive 100+ point seasons in the OHL. One of the final roster cuts last Fall, Hagerman reports that another year of seasoning and strong performance has Strome hopeful for a shot with the big club.
- Speedy Detroit Red Wings forward Andreas Athanasiou isn’t concerned about his starting place this fall the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James reports. Despite dazzling when given some ice time late in the regular season and then the playoffs, Athanasiou might be an odd man out when the Red Wings head into the 2016-17 season. With the addition of forwards Thomas Vanek, Frans Nielsen, and Steve Ott, roster space is limited, but Athanasiou says that he won’t let if affect him. St. James writes that along with Anthony Mantha, Athanasiou cannot be claimed on waivers. While this may not prove popular with the Red Wings fanbase, Athanasiou seems more concerned about building on last year’s successes.
Red Wings Notes: Pulkkinen, Athanasiou, Mantha, Glendening
Detroit Red Wings beat writer Ansar Khan answered questions from readers on a range of topics. Here are some of the highlights from Khan’s column:
- On the chance of Teemu Pulkkinen seeing more ice time, Khan writes that the AHL scoring machine, aside from being injured, missed a chance to secure a regular roster spot. A constant cry from several fan blogs and even analysts who use advanced metrics argue that Pulkkinen, Anthony Mantha, Tomas Jurco, and Andreas Athanasiou have not been given the proper ice time or chance to succeed. Khan does acknowledge this claim, but argues that it falls on the individual player to “seize” the moment. With the signings of Thomas Vanek, and Steve Ott, it pushes out a number of bubble players. But Khan states that Ott will not be a reason Mantha doesn’t see more ice time.
- More on Athanasiou and Mantha: Khan predicts that Mantha will begin the season in Grand Rapids while Athanasiou could get the 2013 Gustav Nyquist treatment that saw the dynamic forward bottled up in Grand Rapids until injuries forced his call up. Khan states that burying Athanasiou in Grand Rapids would be a mistake should he show the same speed and offensive prowess he did during the latter half of last season.
- On Luke Glendening‘s new contract: Khan claims that the feedback he has received from fans has been mixed regarding Glendening’s new four-year, $7.2MM deal. Many fans bristled at the long term, and higher dollar amount for Glendening. Carolyn Wilke created a number of graphs that shows the value of players through a number of metrics. Wilke’s quantitative work reveals the irritation that many Wings fans had with the signing. Khan argues that Glendening “brings more to the table than people give him credit for.” While he points out that former coach Mike Babcock, current coach Jeff Blashill, and general manager Ken Holland like his work, the Red Wings are known for their loyalty to certain players.–often to a fault.
- On trades and Jimmy Vesey: Khan indicates that the Red Wings, like every other organization except Nashville, will certainly be in on pursuing Hobey Baker winner and free agent Jimmy Vesey. Additionally, he says to watch Colorado’s Tyson Barrie as another possible defensive target should the Avalanche make him available via trade.