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Central Notes: Binnington, Zuccarello, Avalanche

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The St. Louis Blues have spent the afternoon celebrating at their downtown parade, but soon will have to deal with eight unrestricted free agents and another 12 restricted free agents. While there are few major deals the team must negotiate, there is one unique case in Jordan Binnington, who will be a restricted free agent this summer.

In fact, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun (subscription required) writes that it’s quite a unique case. The 25-year-old walked onto the scene midway through the season and immediately became a sensation, putting up 1.89 GAA and a .927 save percentage in 32 regular season games and then led the Blues to the Stanley Cup with a 2.46 GAA and a .914 save percentage. All this while making $650K last season, while his backup, Jake Allen, makes $4.35MM.

However, with a half-year of experience, how much does he deserve to get? He has only two years before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, so term is critical as a short-term deal could cause even more problems. However, if he can’t repeat his amazing season, the team could be stuck with him if they sign him to an expensive long-term deal.

  • On his 31 Thoughts article, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman notes that there is mutual interest between the Dallas Stars and winger Mats Zuccarello to get a deal done. Dallas acquired Zuccarello at the trade deadline for a 2019 second-round pick and a 2020 conditional third-round pick, which would turn into a first-round pick if Dallas signs the 31-year-old to a new deal. Zuccarello only played two regular-season games after suffering an arm injury after one game, but was an integral piece to the team’s playoff run, when he tallied four goals and 11 points in 13 games. Friedman writes that the negotiations are taking its time, but there is a good chance that Dallas ends up keeping Zuccarello who made quite a difference to the team’s second line.
  • The Colorado Avalanche aren’t expected to retain unrestricted goaltender Semyon Varlamov this offseason as the team intends to annoit Philipp Grubauer as the team’s No. 1 starter next season. However, the Denver Post’s Mike Chambers writes the team might choose to sign a veteran backup, even though they have AHL all-star, Pavel Francouz, signed to a one-year, $950K guaranteed deal. Due to his lack of NHL experience (two games), Chambers writes it wouldn’t be surprising if the team goes after veteran Curtis McElhinney or former No. 2 Calvin Pickard for next year.
  • Sticking with the Avalanche, A.J. Haefele of BSN Denver reports that the Avalanche will not be buying out anyone this week. That’s not a big surprise, considering the team has few long-term deals with few veteran players making too much money. The team also has $37MM in cap room to work with even though they have to sign several key restricted free agents, including forward Mikko Rantanen, J.T. Compher and Alexander Kerfoot.

Draft Notes: Blackhawks, Avalanche, Golden Knights

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While the first two picks of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft are considered simple enough for the New Jersey Devils and the New York Rangers who have to claim the top two players in the draft in Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko, the real draft gets started at No. 3 where the Chicago Blackhawks must wade through a bevy of prospects and decide who is the best of the rest.

Many scouts have suggested the next obvious player to be taken could be defenseman Bowen Byram, who Chicago head scout Mark Kelley compared to Paul Coffey. However, would the Blackhawks take a defenseman in the first round after selecting Adam Boqvist and Nicolas Beaudin in the first round last year and Henri Jokiharju in the first round in 2017 (plus taking Ian Mitchell in the second round that year as well).

Even if Chicago is willing to take the plunge to draft another defenseman in the first round, The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus (subscription required) writes that the team is banking on success as quickly as possible while Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are on top of their game, leaving little time to sit around and develop their first-rounders. Lazerus writes that the team needs the most NHL-ready player to take over and defenseman rarely fit that bill as forwards develop much quicker and produce more quickly than defensemen.

  • Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Colorado Avalanche will find themselves watching what the Blackhawks will do at the draft. The Avalanche, who own the No. 4 pick in the draft, also would be interested in drafting Byram, but could have more pressing needs as well. The team has a number of top defensemen in Tyson Barrie, Cale Makar, Samuel Girard and Connor Timmins, which would make Byram a luxury, especially considering they could have a bigger need on offense. While the team has a number of young NHL players in Tyson Jost, J.T. Compher and Alexander Kerfoot that could fill the team’s second line, none of them have taken that next step in their development. All have done well, but none look like top-six players yet. That could still happen, but the team also has interest in Alex Turcotte, who could help the team out quickly as well.
  • With a need to bring in a future franchise goaltender and the top goaltending prospect, Spencer Knight, likely to be available when the Vegas Golden Knights pick at No. 17, it would look to be a great fit. Even his last name fits perfectly in Vegas. However, Sinbin.vegas’ Ken Boehlke writes that while Marc-Andre Fleury was a major success when he was drafted in the first round back in 2003, there have been 18 goaltenders selected in the first round and few of those have been successful as only five of them have made more than 10 starts in the NHL with only two of them having become franchise goalies for the teams that drafted them in Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy, suggesting the team would be better off going after a skater than taking a major risk with their first-round pick.

Avalanche To Be “Aggressive” With Top Free Agents

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Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic is a fan of the upcoming free agent class. Speaking at the team’s final media availability of the season, Sakic said of the impending market that “It’s a pretty good class this year…We see positions of need, of what we’re looking to do. There’s a few guys that we’re gonna want to talk to if they become available. We’ll be more aggressive this year.” The Avalanche went out and added defenseman Ian Cole and forward Matt Calvert last summer, who are solid complementary players, but aren’t the major game-changers that can alter a franchise. After a surprising postseason run, Colorado now knows that their championship window is open and those game-changers appear to be exactly what Sakic has his sights set on this off-season to support his team’s pursuit of the Stanley Cup. And he’s also not willing just add anyone if he misses out on his top targets, adding “if it doesn’t work out with the players that we want to talk to we’re not just gonna go spend on anybody. We want the right players and the right fit.”

Fortunately for Sakic and the Avs, the team’s salary cap structure allows the GM to back up his comments as well. With Semyon Varlamov, Patrik Nemeth, and Derick Brassard – three players who contributed little to nothing this postseason – coming off the books, Colorado will shed more than $11MM. The team could opt to re-sign the likes of Colin Wilson, Gabriel Bourque, and Pavel Francouz, but none of that trio would likely take up much cap space. Right now, the team has an estimate of nearly $32MM in cap space entering the off-season. Some of that will need to be reserved for re-upping restricted free agents Alexander Kerfoot, J.T. Compher, Nikita Zadorov, and most of all Mikko Rantanen. However, it should still leave the Avs with at least double-digit cap space to explore the market with.

So which top free agents could the Avalanche pursue? You can cross off the tandem of Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky for a number of reasons and it’s hard to imagine Matt Duchene returning to Denver. However, the team’s need for secondary scoring could lead Sakic to make pitches for many of the other elite forwards. Jeff Skinner, Joe Pavelski, and Anders Lee may not hit the market, but expect the Avs to be in the mix if they do. More ascertainable targets could be Ryan Dzingel, Jordan Eberle, Kevin Hayes, Gustav Nyquist, Marcus Johansson, and Mats Zuccarello, any of whom would provide an immediate boost to the team’s scoring depth. Adding two of those forwards would give the team a totally different look up front next season. Colorado may also have their eye on an established backup for Philipp Grubauer and could chase the likes of Mike Smith or Cam Talbot, among others. 

Given the talent already on the Colorado roster, an aggressive off-season plan should be an interesting topic to follow along with this summer. Sakic and company have seen what their team can do as an 8-seed in the playoffs and surely are imagining what might happen if they are instead a top seed. A division title and more is certainly in the realm of possibility next season if the Avalanche succeed in adding a couple of the aforementioned players.

Colorado Avalanche Could Be Ideal Destination For Andre Burakovsky

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After another loss last night, the Colorado Avalanche are win-less in their last eight games. Normally, this would send a team plummeting down the standings, but in this season’s Western Conference “turtle derby”, the Avs are tied for tenth-place in the West and just four points back of a wild card spot with a game in hand on the Minnesota Wild. Colorado doesn’t have the best odds of making the playoffs – The Athletic model puts them at 32% – but they certainly still have a chance. It puts GM Joe Sakic in a difficult position as the NHL Trade Deadline approaches; he knows that his team, which held a playoff spot for much of the first half, has the talent to make the postseason, but he also lacks the confidence in the current standings to be a true buyer. Sakic stated last week that he would not move first-round picks or top prospects at the deadline, but without a win since then, he may have ruled out giving up any trade capital of value for a rental.

Where a move does still make sense for the Avalanche is in acquiring a forward with term or team control. The lack of secondary scoring that has plagued the team this season is not going to magically correct itself next year, so it makes sense for Sakic to target forwards that could help down the stretch this year and moving forward. The best case scenario would be a deal where the Colorado does not have to give up futures to acquire such a player. Few of these opportunities exist, but the Avs are reportedly looking into one of them. Appearing on TSN 1050 in Toronto yesterday, Pierre LeBrun reported that the Avalanche are in on young Washington Capitals forward Andre Burakovsky. Burakovsky, 24, has fallen out of favor in Washington and has been on the trade block for much of the season. The talented winger is an impending restricted free agent this summer and due a qualifying offer of $3.25MM, but Colorado has both the cap space and the need for depth to accommodate a contract extension. Burakovsky, who is on pace for 24 points this season behind a drop-off in ice time and shooting percentage, has otherwise scored at a half point-per-game clip and logged strong possession numbers in his previous four years with the Caps. He could be the exact type of buy-low, high upside forwards that Sakic and company need. With a change of scenery, Burakovsky could make an impact this year and become a core piece for the Avs next season and beyond.

Yet, what makes Colorado and Washington ideal trade partners is what the Capitals want in return. Like many contenders who are willing to move a young roster player, Washington will need a replacement. According to The Athletic’s Scott Burnside, the asking price for Burakovsky is another top-nine forward who can out-perform him in his stead this season. Washington GM Brian MacLellan has very little cap room to work with at the deadline – approximately $1.1MM in salary – and is almost exclusively looking to upgrade via hockey trade as a result. The Capitals’ best chance of improving at the deadline is likely in their return for Burakovsky. So what do the Avalanche have to offer as the centerpiece of a package for Burakovsky? Colin Wilson, an impending free agent with a cap hit just under $4MM, makes a lot of sense. Wilson has out-produced Burakovsky this season and brings an added element of experience and a hard-working style that would be a major boost to the Capitals’ bottom six. Matthew Nieto is another option; the 26-year-old has similar numbers to Burakovsky albeit with less potential, but does carry a team-friendly $1.975MM hit through next season. If the Avs are really high on Burakovsky, they may even consider swapping out one of their own RFA scorers in Alexander Kerfoot or J.T. Compher. Perhaps the most intriguing option though, and one that could likely up the price on the Capitals’ side, is veteran forward Carl Soderberg. After two down years, Soderberg is again on pace for a 50-point season and would be a major addition for the Caps. He does have a $4.75MM cap hit through next season that would require some retention on the part of the Avalanche, but if MacLellan is willing to sweeten the offer beyond just Burakovsky, Sodeberg could be a difference maker for the team. With good potential fits on both sides and rumored mutual interest, a Burakovksy-to-the-Avs trade could be coming down the line in the next twelve days.

Deadline Primer: Colorado Avalanche

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? Next up is a look at the Colorado Avalanche.

The Colorado looked to be clearly the third best team in the Central Division until recently, but the team has struggled in December and even more so in January with a record of 7-14-3. However, despite that, the team has 52 points, tied with Dallas and is right in the mix for a playoff spot. However, despite their top line and team’s surrounding success over the past couple of seasons, the team is continuing build their team and remains a young squad. The team has the Ottawa Senators’ first-round pick in 2019 which could provide them with a superstar prospect and general manager Joe Sakic has made it clear the team isn’t going to trade away future assets to add temporary help for this team.

Record

22-20-8, fifth in the Central Division

Deadline Status

Moderate Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$58.142MM in a full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 47/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: OTT 1st, COL 1st, COL 2nd, OTT 3rd, COL 3rd, COL 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th
2020: COL 1st, COL 2nd, COL 3rd, COL 4th, COL 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th

Trade Chips

It’s actually hard picturing the Avalanche selling anything from their team as well, but they do have some assets they could move in the right deal. While the team might never consider to move Ottawa’s No. 1 pick, they might be more open to moving their own first-round pick, which would likely be late lottery to mid-level first-rounder.

However, among current assets, the team could consider moving some of their unrestricted free agents like Colin Wilson and Patrik Nemeth, two players who the team must decide whether they intend to keep them after this season. The team also is likely to lose starting goaltender Semyon Varlamov in the offseason after picking up Philipp Grubauer, so the team could consider sending Varlamov off to a team in need of a rental starter, although it’s far more likely the team will keep Varlamov for the remainder of the year in hopes of pushing for a playoff spot.

 

Five Players To Watch For: F Sven Andrighetto, D Patrik Nemeth, G Semyon Varlamov, F Colin Wilson, D Nikita Zadorov

Team Needs

1) Secondary Scoring: The team’s top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog has been impressive all year, but the team needs to build up their second line and has received little help from any of the players they have put there other than Carl Soderberg, who was meant to be more of a third-line player. Prospect Tyson Jost was sent to the AHL to work on his game, while many of their other young talents like J.T. Compher and Alexander Kerfoot haven’t shown enough consistency so far. The team could use a solid impact player that can be the offensive focus of the second line. Whether the team is willing to pay for that at this point in the team’s development is another question.

2) More young talent: One thing that Sakic has done over the past few years is he has avoided handing out too many bad contracts with the possible exception of defenseman Erik Johnson’s seven-year, $42MM contract he signed back in 2015. In fact, the one given to MacKinnon seems like a bargain at $6.3MM for another four years after this one. While the team will have to lock up Rantanen this summer, the team has an awful lot of cap space they could use to bring in future assets. They did this last summer when they took on the contract of Brooks Orpik and was able to bring in Grubauer to help the team in goal. They could be that team that helps some of those cap-challenged teams to bring in more picks or young players to further invest in Colorado’s long-term development.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Colorado Avalanche

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads past the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. Let’s take a look at what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Colorado Avalanche. 

What are the Avalanche most thankful for?

The continued improvement. Last season the Colorado Avalanche had an incredible season, going from one of the worst teams in the league to just squeaking into the playoffs. Colorado found themselves matched up with the top team in the league in the Nashville Predators and while no one gave the Avalanche any chance to beat the powerhouse squad, but the team still managed to take two games from them. This year has only gotten better for the franchise as they are currently tied for first place with the Predators in the Central Division and have started to show that they have an impressive team that is only getting better.

Who are the Avalanche most thankful for?

Their top line. Colorado’s top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog was impressive last year, but they have only gotten better this year. MacKinnon, who had a breakout season last year after posting 39 goals last year, already has 18 goals and is on pace for an even bigger year. MacKinnon, the runner-up for the Hart Trophy, could take the award this year with the way he is playing as he has 41 points already and he’s not even at the half-way point of the season.

Rantanen already has 11 goals and 43 points in just 26 games as he’s on pace for an even bigger season. He could be one of MacKinnon’s biggest challengers for the Hart Trophy if the 22-year-old continues to play the way he has. Landeskog, on the other hand, is playing well with 15 goals already, which likely has him headed for a career-high. While they were a very good line a year ago, the pairing has become one of the top lines in the NHL now. With Landeskog only being 26 and the veteran of the group, the line could be together for a long time.

What would the Avalanche be even more thankful for?

Secondary scoring. One of the team’s biggest problems is getting more scoring from its other lines. Many people felt that Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher might step up as well as other players, including Alexander Kerfoot and Colin Wilson. While they each have made some contributions, none of them have taken the next step. Jost has shown to be impressive when moved to the second line, yet he has just four goals and 10 points this season. Compher could be the answer, but has been out with a head injury. However, he has seven goals in the 10 games he’s played this year. Kerfoot has 18 points in 26 games, but only four of those are goals, while Wilson has seven goals and 10 points in 26 games.

The team needs one or two of these players (and preferably everyone) to take that next step and start providing the team with secondary scoring so when the first line gets shut down, the team doesn’t get shutout.

What should be on the Avalanche’s Holiday Wish List?

A young impact player. The team is quite young, but there is more talent on the way. The team could get a significant boost from 2017 first-round pick Cale Markar. The 20-year-old defenseman has been lighting up the college scene this year with the University of Massachusetts – Amherst. After posting respectable numbers as a freshman of five goals and 21 points in 34 games for the Minutemen, he has already topped those numbers in just 13 appearances. He already has six goals and 18 points with more than half a season to go. If the team can convince him to turn pro after the season, there is a good chance the fourth-overall pick could step right onto the ice during the stretch-run of the season and give the team another impact player on their defense.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $67,318,095 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alexander Kerfoot (one year, $925K)
F Dominic Toninato (one year, $925K)
F J.T. Compher (one year, $925K)
F Mikko Rantanen (one year, $894K)
F Tyson Jost (two years, $886K)
F Vladislav Kamenev (one year, $833K)
F A.J. Greer (one year, $741K)
D Samuel Girard (two years, $728K)
D Anton Lindholm (one year, $718K)

Potential Bonuses:

Rantanen: $850K
Jost: $850K
Kerfoot: $213K
Girard: $183K
Lindholm: $183K
Compher: $100K
Greer: $75K

Total: $2.47MM

For a successful team that made it into the playoffs and gave the Nashville Predators a run for their money, it’s a bit surprising that the team got quite a bit of contributions from entry-level players, with Rantanen probably at the top of the list of contributors. After a 20-goal season in his first full season on the team, the 21-year-old took that next step and benefitted from playing with Nathan MacKinnon on the first line, breaking out with a 29-goal, 84-point season. With the top line expected to return this season, don’t be surprised if the winger puts up another big season right before he becomes a restricted free agent and could get rewarded with a long-term contract.

The team expects similar success from Kerfoot, who arrived in Colorado as a four-year college free agent from Harvard University. The 24-year-old posted a 19-goal, 43-point rookie campaign last year as a member of the team’s third line and now is expected to move up a notch and battle Jost for the second-line center position, with the loser moving to right wing on the same line. Jost, scored 12 goals last season in his rookie season, but the 2016 first-rounder is expected to break out if he can earn a spot on that second line as well. Both are likely to have promising seasons.

The 23-year-old Compher is another young talent who will be given every chance to fight for a spot as the left wing on the second line. In his first full season, Compher posted 13 goals and could be in line for a bigger season next year. The team also has high expectations for Girard on the defense. One of the key pieces of the Matt Duchene trade, the then 19-year-old defenseman was able to stay in the NHL, averaging 17:39 ATOI once he was traded from Nashville and posted 20 points in his rookie season and should be able to improve on that as he will likely assume a top-four role already next season.

One interesting prospect is Kamenev, who also came over with Girard in the Duchene deal, but the 22-year-old center was injured one game into his Colorado career, and he missed most of the season. Now healthy, Kamenev has a good chance to earn a role on the team’s third line in hopes of putting up good numbers next year. Toninato may also be an interesting addition as he has a chance to pick up the fourth-line center spot after signing last season out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Semyon Varlamov ($5.9MM, UFA)
F Colin Wilson ($3.94MM, UFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($2.15MM, RFA)
F Sven Andrighetto ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Gabriel Bourque ($950K, UFA)

With cap room at a premium, general manager Joe Sakic had the opportunity to use that to his advantage as he was able to acquire the bloated contract of Brooks Orpik from Washington to acquire their future goaltender in Grubauer, who has posted two straight seasons of .923 save percentages or higher. The Capitals’ backup goalie looks ready for a chance to take a starting role and while he might split time with Varlamov early on, the team’s hopes is that Grubauer steals the job away from him. Varlamov and his $5.9MM contract is set to expire next year, meaning the Avalanche are likely going to allow him to walk.

The team has a pair of defensive players in Zadorov and Nemeth, who will be fighting for contract extensions next season. Zadorov has been a key defensive player for the team, posting 278 hits as well as blocking 106 shots. He even posted a career high in both goals (7) and points (20). Nemeth came over to Colorado from Dallas and immediately jumped into the rotation and led the team with a plus-27 rating and was crucial to the team’s penalty kill and likely will take a third-pairing role once again.

Wilson could be pushed down to the team’s third line or provide a veteran presence on the second line depending if one of the youngsters fails to impress in camp. However, the 28-year-old is coming off of one of his worst-ever seasons as he posted just six goals and 18 points last season. Andrighetto will be another youngster who should get some time in the team’s bottom-six.

Two Years Remaining

D Tyson Barrie ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Soderberg ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Matthew Nieto ($1.98MM, UFA)
D Mark Barberio ($1.45MM, UFA)
D Mark Alt ($725K, UFA)

The 27-year-old took that next step for the Avalanche, putting up career numbers in both goals and points as he posted 14 goals and 57 points last season as he’s proven to be a No. 1 defenseman that the franchise really needs. The team must find a way to lock him up to an extension in July next year.

Soderberg doesn’t post big offensive numbers, but is viewed as a critical shutdown defender, who the Avalanche put up against other teams’ top players. The 32-year-old did put up 16 goals and 37 points last year, but his main responsibility is to center the team’s third line. Nieto will likely end up there with him, who also produced at a career-high as he posted a 15-goal season last year.

Three Years Remaining

F Gabriel Landeskog ($5.57MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($4.25MM, UFA)
G Philipp Grubauer ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Calvert ($2.85MM, UFA)

Landeskog has become an integral part of the Avalance’s top line as he posted numbers that are comparable to his best seasons of his career as he posted 25 goals and 62 points. The 25-year-old has added excellent balance to that top line since the team moved on from Duchene. The second-overall pick in 2011 might be able to start meeting the high expectations of his draft status if the chemistry between Rantanen and MacKinnon continue.

Cole, Grubauer and Calvert were all recent additions this offseason with Grubauer having already been discussed. However, the team hopes to get some solid value out of both Cole and Calvert at their respective positions. Cole should provide veteran depth to developing defense and if he plays well enough could beat out Girard or Zadorov for a top-four spot, but is more likely to settle into a third-line pairing. Calvert should be able to provide third or fourth-line depth since his lack of offensive skills would likely prevent him from earning a second-line role.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM through 2022-23)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM through 2022-23)

The amazing thing is that Colorado only has two players locked up long-term and considering that MacKinnon was one of the top vote-getters for the Hart Trophy last season after the 23-year-old posted 39 goals and 97 points, the team has a steal of a deal with him. With the rising salaries of star players, the fact that Colorado has MacKinnon locked up for five more years at just $6.3MM only makes their situation better and should allow the team to add even more talent over the next couple of years.

The team also has five more years of Johnson at $6MM, which isn’t as good. While Johnson is a solid defensive defenseman, the 30-year-old is injury-prone and hasn’t been able to play 80 games just once in his 10 NHL seasons. He managed nine goals and 25 points in 62 games last season and still remains the team’s second-best defenseman.

Buyouts

D Brooks Orpik ($2.5MM in 2018-19; $1.5MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: MacKinnon
Worst Value: Johnson

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

The Avalanche is a young team that just a year ago many considered to be one of the worst in the NHL. Thanks to the superb play of many of their young players, the team should be in good hands. Colorado has plenty of cap space to handle long-term deals that will need to be given to their many youngsters with Rantanen the most likely to be handed a long-term extension and the team may even have the ability to go after a big-name free agent in a year or two if they continue to improve and show they are the most intriguing team in the Central Division.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

An Avalanche Is Beginning In Colorado

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Over the last year, the Colorado Avalanche—and GM Joe Sakic in particular—have taken a lot of heat from media and fans for their performance on and off the ice. Heading into 2017 with a 12-23-1 record, they would go 10-33-3 over the last few months of the 2016-17 season to finish what was a historically bad campaign. Their players seemed to quit on the ice, and rumors of discontent in Jared Bednar’s locker room were rampant. Matt Duchene, one of the long-time faces of the franchise asked for a fresh start elsewhere, but was forced to finish the year and wasn’t promised anything going forward.

Cale MakarIn June, the team lost a young goaltender in Calvin Pickard to the expansion Vegas Golden Knights and were bumped all the way out of the top-3 in the draft lottery despite their last-place finish. Duchene trade rumors persisted, but Sakic wouldn’t lower his high asking price. Still, on the draft floor the Avalanche would be able to select exactly what they needed at fourth-overall. Cale Makar, an undersized defenseman whose most noticeable flaw was that he hadn’t played against high-level competition, dropped into their laps.

They’d be even more excited when Conor Timmins, a more traditional two-way defenseman from the OHL would slip out of the first round entirely. Timmins had climbed to 18th on the CSS rankings among North American skaters—and fourth among North American defensemen—by the end of the 2016-17 season, and yet still fell all the way to Colorado at 32nd-overall.

The rest of the summer went relatively uneventful, with all eyes still on Duchene, and the season began with a relatively similar Avalanche squad. The on-ice performance wouldn’t look anything like the end of the previous year though, as Colorado would go 8-5-0 through their first 13 games, led by a determined Duchene and energized Nathan MacKinnon. Then, on November 5th against the New York Islanders, Blake Comeau would be helped off the ice and down the tunnel to assess an injury. Behind him, Duchene would slip away as well, just informed that he’d been traded to the Ottawa Senators mid-game.

That deal, the one that Sakic had been pursuing for months, came about by involving both Ottawa and the Nashville Predators. The Avalanche finally received their asking price of a young NHL-ready defenseman (Samuel Girard), top prospect (Vladislav Kamenev) and first-round pick. Amazingly, they also added another top prospect in Shane Bowers, and two additional draft picks (Nashville’s 2018 second-round pick, and Ottawa’s 2019 third-round pick). It’s more than anyone expected Sakic would get for a player that now had fewer than two years remaining on his contract.

Colorado would lose that game against the Islanders, and the next two against the Duchene-led Senators while in Sweden. But since then, the team has gone 11-9-2 and is still in the playoff mix in the Western Conference. Their 41 points puts them at the bottom of the Central Division, but only three points behind the Anaheim Ducks for the final wildcard spot. That’s a huge step forward for a team that finished with only 48 points total in 2016-17.

It’s not going to end there.

While Girard is showing that he’s ready for a full-time role in the NHL at the tender age of 19, Makar and Timmins are starring for Team Canada at the World Junior tournament. Makar started as the team’s seventh defenseman, but has shone as Canada deals with injuries to several older and more experienced players. Both defensemen scored today against Switzerland, skating together at even-strength. Timmins is part of a powerhouse Sault Ste. Marie team in the OHL that has lost just three games in regulation, and could be in line for a Memorial Cup berth.

Suddenly, when you start imagining a blueline patrolled by those three and an offense led by MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, only 22 and 21 respectively, the future doesn’t look so bleak in Colorado. Add in other high-upside players like Tyson Jost (19) and Alexander Kerfoot (23), a captain in Gabriel Landeskog who just turned 25, and four selections in the top two rounds in what is shaping up to be an incredible draft class, and it might not be very long until there is more than just hope in the Avalanche dressing room.

Avalanche Notes: Duchene, Compher, Bourque, Recalls

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While many have expected the Avalanche to deal center Matt Duchene with him being in the rumor mill dating back to last season, some general managers around the league now believe that GM Joe Sakic is trying to convince Duchene to stick it out in Colorado, TSN’s Darren Dreger reported on a segment with WGR 550 in Buffalo (audio link).  Duchene’s preference to be dealt has been well-known for a while now so on the surface, it would feel like a longshot for the team to convince him to rescind his trade request now after everything that has transpired; Dreger adds that he still expects a trade to happen at some point.  Assuming Sakic could persuade him to stick it out with the Avs, Duchene still wouldn’t be able to sign a contract extension until July.

Despite his unhappiness with his situation, Duchene is off to a nice start this season with eight points (3-5-8) through ten games which have him tied for the team lead with blueliner Tyson Barrie.  That will certainly allow Sakic to keep the asking price as high as it has been dating back to last season and afford him the time to try to convince Duchene to have a change of heart if that is indeed the route they’re now trying to go.

More from Colorado:

  • Winger J.T. Compher is two-to-three weeks away from returning to the lineup as he continues his recovery from a broken thumb, head coach Jared Bednar told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. The 22-year-old continues to skate daily which should help in terms of conditioning when he gets the green light to return.  In eight games this season, Compher has a goal and three assists while averaging a little over 15 minutes per night.
  • Compher’s replacement now finds himself banged up as well as winger Gabriel Bourque suffered an upper-body injury last night, notes Betsy Helfand of the Denver Post. He left Friday’s loss against Vegas in the first period and did not return.  Alexander Kerfoot also left the game in the third period.  Bednar didn’t have an immediate update on either player.
  • With those two injuries, the Avs announced (Twitter link) that they’ve promoted forwards Rocco Grimaldi and Andrew Agozzino from AHL San Antonio. The undersized Grimaldi has seen NHL action in each of the last three seasons while Agozzino is their top scorer at the minor league level with eight points through the first seven games of 2017-18.  To make room for them on the roster, Mike Chambers of the Denver Post reports (Twitter link) that Bourque and Colin Wilson have been placed on IR.

Alex Kerfoot Signs With Colorado Avalanche

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Thursday: The Avalanche have announced the signing, bringing in Kerfoot on a two-year entry-level contract worth $832K in the NHL.

Wednesday: In a stunning turn, NCAA free agent Alex Kerfoot has decided to sign with the Colorado Avalanche according to Darren Dreger of TSN. Dreger had included Colorado in Kerfoot’s “final five” last night, but not many people seemed to believe that he would end up with the Avalanche. The young center could step right into an NHL role with the club, though as we addressed last night there is likely a move to follow.

The 23-year old Kerfoot was selected in the fifth round by the New Jersey Devils in 2012, but became a free agent on August 16th when he failed to sign with the team. In four years at Harvard, he put up 123 points and captained the team during his senior season. A gifted playmaker, it’s still to be seen whether he can carry his offensive gifts to the professional level. A natural center he’ll have to fight for minutes along with Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher, as well as Matt Duchene if a trade isn’t reached before the season begins.

Dreger tweets that GM Joe Sakic “did a great job selling Kerfoot on his fit with the [Avalanche]” and that he could have a big role if a trade does go down. While MacKinnon and Jost were listed in Sakic’s untouchable group earlier this year, Compher is also expected to have a big role on the team going forward. There is always the possibility that Kerfoot or one of the others moves to the wing, but this does give them more depth should a Duchene move occur.

Like any NCAA free agent, excitement over Kerfoot should be limited until he shows that he has another level of play ready for the NHL. While his potential is promising, skating against players several years younger than you and with a much wider talent gap can hide deficiencies that will be exploited at the next level. Kerfoot will sign a two-year entry-level contract, and try to prove that he is one of the exceptions that was just underestimated in his draft year.

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