Blackhawks Won’t Hire New Coach Until Offseason
The Chicago Blackhawks removed Jeremy Colliton from his position as head coach yesterday, meaning they are now dealing with interim hires at the general manager and coaching positions. Kyle Davidson is serving as interim GM after Stan Bowman‘s resignation, while Derek King who had been with the Rockford IceHogs is taking over behind the bench for the time being. Today, both men spoke with the media and Davidson explained to reporters including Mark Lazerus of The Athletic that the organization will not hire a new coach until after this season is completed. He believes it will allow for a more thorough search, giving the Blackhawks access to all available candidates.
Davidson will add an assistant to the current coaching staff at some point, though he noted that King will be leaning heavily on Marc Crawford during this transition. Crawford was not let go with the rest of the previous staff.
The Blackhawks have gone through a complete overhaul to hockey leadership over the last few weeks and are now 1-9-2 on the season after another embarrassing loss on Friday night. The team has allowed 47 goals through their first 12 games, second only to the Arizona Coyotes for worst in the league. This comes after an offseason with several blockbuster acquisitions, including Seth Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury. Jones cost the organization a substantial package of future assets and was signed to an eight-year, $76MM contract by Bowman in July.
Davidson noted that he “is not Stan” and that there will likely be philosophical differences in how he runs the team moving forward. He has the support of ownership and full power of the general manager position, even if he is still carrying the interim tag for the time being.
Delaying the coaching search until the offseason means that King will have control of the Blackhawks for the remaining 70 games, his first NHL coaching opportunity. A veteran of more than 800 games as a player, King had been the head coach of the IceHogs since partway through the 2018-19 season, taking over when Colliton was promoted to the NHL job. He had previously been an assistant coach with the Toronto Marlies and Owen Sound Attack.
Petr Mrazek Placed On Injured Reserve
The Toronto Maple Leafs hoped to take a cautious approach to the health of their goaltenders this season, signing Petr Mrazek to help insulate Jack Campbell so that neither one was overworked. Instead, it appears as though Campbell will need to carry the load for the next while. Mrazek has been placed on injured reserve retroactive to November 4 and is expected to miss approximately four weeks.
Mrazek, 29, suffered a groin injury in his first appearance of the season, stretching to stop a shot at the end of the second period. He didn’t finish that game, and was out for more than two weeks, forcing the Maple Leafs to go with Michael Hutchinson once again as the backup. Mrazek returned on October 30 and recorded his first win for Toronto, only to reaggravate the injury over the last week. It will now likely be December before he appears in his third game of the season, certainly not the situation the team was hoping for when they signed him to a three-year deal this summer.
In fact, for a team like Toronto that is constantly dancing around the salary cap ceiling, Mrazek’s $3.8MM hit was a substantial investment. While Campbell has performed incredibly well in his time as a Maple Leaf, he too has a long injury history and has never played more than 31 games in a single season. The 29-year-old is already up to ten this year, with many more to come while Mrazek recovers.
Instead of Hutchinson this time, the Maple Leafs recalled prospect, Joseph Woll, to serve as the team’s backup last night. Woll had been dealing with an injury of his own last time they needed a netminder, but it’s unclear if he’ll actually make his NHL debut or just sit on the bench while Campbell plays every game. The Maple Leafs do have a back-to-back situation coming up next week, playing the Calgary Flames on Friday and then traveling to Buffalo for Saturday night.
AHL Shuffle: 11/07/21
Just five games are on tap for this evening, but that will include the final team without a regulation win. After last night’s Arizona Coyotes victory, the Dallas Stars are the only team in the league that hasn’t managed to finish a game in the first 60 minutes, though they have secured two points on four occasions. The Stars will take on the Vancouver Canucks this evening. As they and others prepare for action, we’ll keep track of all the minor league shuffling:
Atlantic Division
- After their latest win, the Florida Panthers have made a swap, sending Chase Priskie to the AHL and recalling Lucas Carlsson. The 24-year-old Carlsson has six points in eight games for the Charlotte Checkers this season, showing once again that he can be a top performer at the minor league level. Since arriving from the Chicago Blackhawks, he has yet to get into a game with the Panthers.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs recalled forwards Joey Anderson and Kirill Semyonov from the Toronto Marlies to give the team some extra bodies. The team has some additional roster flexibility after it was announced today that netminder Petr Mrazek will be placed on injured reserve with a groin injury. Anderson is off to a slow-ish start with the Marlies with just four points in nine games, but Semyonov is impressing with a goal and eight assists in his first season of North American hockey.
- According to a team tweet, the Detroit Red Wings assigned center Joe Veleno to the Grand Rapids Griffins in order to make room for defenseman Gustav Lindstrom, who the team activated from injured reserve. Veleno had two points in four games during his call-up, looking impressive in a top-six role.
Metropolitan Division
- After the team activated Ryan Reaves for last night’s game, the New York Rangers have officially sent Greg McKegg back to the AHL. The 29-year-old McKegg has played in eight games this season but has been held scoreless. He cleared waivers before the season began, but was still eligible to be sent down without having to clear again.
- The Carolina Hurricanes recalled netminder Alex Lyon from the Chicago Wolves today, according to head coach Rod Brind’Amour. Goalie Antti Raanta left Saturday’s game against the Florida Panthers after colliding with forward Ryan Lomberg.
- Defenseman Nick Seeler was loaned to the Lehigh Valley Phantoms by the Philadelphia Flyers today, per the team. The move leaves Philadelphia with only six defensemen on the active roster, meaning that Ryan Ellis is likely to return to the lineup Wednesday night against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
- The Washington Capitals recalled forward Axel Jonsson-Fjallby from the Hershey Bears Sunday. Jonsson-Fjallby found himself in the news prior to the season’s start after being claimed by the Buffalo Sabres on waivers but was reclaimed by Washington less than a week after the fact. Jonsson-Fjallby could make his NHL debut after posting seven points in nine games with Hershey to start the year.
Central Division
- The Minnesota Wild re-assigned Adam Beckman and Connor Dewar to the Iowa Wild. The team needed to free up roster space for Mats Zuccarello and Rem Pitlick, who the team activated from the COVID-19 Protocol list today.
Pacific Division
- Daniil Miromanov was recalled from the Henderson Silver Knights today, per the Vegas Golden Knights media site. A versatile youngster who can play both forward and defense, he was added to the roster after Alex Pietrangelo who was roughed up in Vegas’ Saturday night game against the Montreal Canadiens.
- In addition to waiving Kyle Capobianco today, the Arizona Coyotes also re-assigned forward Ben McCartney and defenseman Victor Soderstrom to the Tucson Roadrunners, per PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan. McCartney went without a point during his two-game call-up, while Soderstrom has yet to find the scoresheet in nine games this season.
- The Vancouver Canucks assigned forward Nic Petan to Abbotsford today, activating Justin Dowling in a corresponding move. Petan has hopped up and down between the NHL and AHL this season but has yet to get into a game with the Canucks.
This page will be updated throughout the day
Injury Notes: Hayes, Sabres, Raanta
While Philadelphia Flyers forward Kevin Hayes is eligible to come off long-term injured reserve for Philadelphia’s game on Wednesday against the Toronto Maple Leafs, it sounds like the forward isn’t quite ready to return from an injury that’s kept him out all season up until this point. Head coach Alain Vigneault won’t rule it out but says that “Wednesday is an outside chance, more on the outside than on the inside” in terms of Hayes’ availability. If Hayes does return, it will be ahead of schedule. He was expected to miss roughly two months after being placed on injured reserve in late September as he continued to recover from offseason core muscle surgery.
Other injury notes from around the NHL:
- While the Sabres have dealt with some injuries to key players lately, it sounds like there’s good news on the horizon. Forward Victor Olofsson is close to returning, while a day-to-day injury that’s keeping goalie Craig Anderson out of the lineup isn’t serious enough to warrant placing him on injured reserve, per Sabres head coach Don Granato. Olofsson’s been a pleasant surprise, jumping out to lead the team in scoring with nine points in just eight games while playing over 17 minutes a night. The injury looks to be a bump in the road on a real breakout season for the Swedish forward, who’s often been chastised for his lack of production at even-strength.
- Carolina Hurricanes goalie Antti Raanta left Saturday’s game after colliding with Florida Panthers forward Ryan Lomberg, and the team’s public relations team tweeted that he won’t return to the game with an upper-body injury. Raanta’s lengthy injury history gives serious cause for concern here, and it appears as though Frederik Andersen could need to continue shouldering the load for the next little while. Lomberg was assessed a five-minute major penalty on the play.
Pittsburgh Penguins Activate Bryan Rust Off Injured Reserve
The Pittsburgh Penguins continue to slowly work their way back towards full health, activating right wing Bryan Rust from injured reserve today per a team release.
Rust was placed on injured reserve on October 16 after playing in just two games. He’ll undoubtedly return to the team’s top line, which currently consists of Jake Guentzel and Jeff Carter as captain Sidney Crosby remains in COVID-19 protocol.
It’s been a rocky start to the season for Pittsburgh, who have dealt with injuries to every single one of their core players this season. Evgeni Malkin has yet to play, Crosby’s played in just one game, Carter’s played only six, Kris Letang has played five, and Guentzel has missed one game out of a possible nine.
They’ve been buoyed early by a resurgent start from goaltender Tristan Jarry, who’s managed a .930 save percentage in seven games this season.
Dominik Simon, who’s averaged just 10:40 per game this season despite scoring four points in eight games, is a likely candidate to sit in the press box to make room for Rust in the lineup.
Rust returns to full health aiming to score 20 goals for the third straight season as he enters the final season of a four-year deal paying him $3.5MM per season. He’s set to earn a sharp raise on that deal, regardless of his home next season.
Aleksander Barkov Out For Saturday’s Game With Lower-Body Injury
Per the Florida Panthers public relations team, center Aleksander Barkov is out for Saturday’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes with a lower-body injury. His status is day-to-day.
Forward Ryan Lomberg will enter the lineup in his place, according to Florida Hockey Now’s George Richards. Their game against the Hurricanes is a battle of the league’s current titans, as the Hurricanes (9-0-0) attempt to remain undefeated while Florida (9-0-1) enters the game without a regulation loss.
23-year-old Eetu Luostarinen, who has three goals through seven games this season, could center the top line between Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair in Barkov’s absence.
The Panthers continue to stretch their center depth thin with injuries this season, as Sam Bennett, Joe Thornton, and Noel Acciari are all on injured reserve. A strong start from rookie Anton Lundell is helping to soften the blow, and the team has also shifted offseason acquisition Sam Reinhart back to center from the wing to compensate for the slew of injuries.
Barkov has been undeniably spectacular as the Panthers continue to bank points early in the season. Fresh off receiving an eight-year, $80MM extension, he’s tallied 12 points in 10 games while playing over 22 minutes per game.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Florida Panthers
Current Cap Hit: $82,014,416 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
G Spencer Knight (two years, $925K)
F Anton Lundell (three years, $925K)
F Eetu Luostarinen (one year, $890K)
F Owen Tippett (one year, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Knight: $1.85MM
Lundell: $850K
Tippett: $850K
Total: $3.55MM
Lundell has impressed in his early NHL action. Despite being used in a heavy defensive role, he has chipped in offensively and held his own in his own end. The fact he’s in this important of a spot on the depth chart now will certainly help his cause for his second deal; three years of being a key piece certainly looks better than being up and down which is where Tippett finds himself. Another first-round pick, Tippett hasn’t produced with much consistency in the NHL and has been up and down in the lineup with some time in the minors as well. Between that and their cap situation, he’s a strong candidate for a two-year bridge contract that buys both sides more time. Luostarinen doesn’t have the numbers to command much of a raise although his playing time (over 13 minutes a game in his two seasons with Florida) should be enough to push him over the $1MM mark.
Knight has done well since joining the Panthers late last season and it’s clear he’s their goalie of the future. Can he get enough playing time over the next two years to command starter money though? That may be iffy, especially being behind a high-priced netminder on the depth chart. Making the finances work on a long-term pact two years from now seems difficult given that Sergei Bobrovsky has five years left. As a result, a two-year bridge deal to keep the combined cost down makes sense for both sides, allowing Knight to get a bigger payday after that while Florida gets only the one season of a very pricey goalie tandem (assuming Bobrovsky is still around by then).
Both Knight and Lundell have a chance to hit some of their bonuses which is worth remembering with how tight they are to the salary cap; it creates the possibility of a carryover overage for next season.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Noel Acciari ($1.667MM, UFA)
D Kevin Connauton ($825K, UFA)
D Olli Juolevi ($750K, RFA)
F Ryan Lomberg ($725K, UFA)
F Maxim Mamin ($975K, UFA)
F Mason Marchment ($800K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($2.7MM, UFA)
F Joe Thornton ($750K, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($2.533MM, UFA)
Vatrano has scored at least 16 goals in each of the last three seasons which certainly helps to justify his price tag but he has struggled early on this year, playing largely on the fourth line. That’s never a good sign in a walk year and could shift him from a chance of earning similar money on his next contract to having to take a bit less. That recent track record should still give him a decent market though. Acciari isn’t really the 20-goal player he was in 2018-19 but, when healthy, he’s a capable energy player but he hasn’t played this season due to an upper-body injury. The longer he sits, the more his value takes a hit. Mamin got pretty good money to come back from the KHL but has spent most of the season in the minors. He’s up now and with a one-way contract, he’s someone that could be a trade candidate if he can’t secure a regular spot. At this point, a return overseas seems likely. Marchment has turned into a bargain and is off to a nice start offensively while chipping in with plenty of physicality. While he’s a late bloomer, there will be a lot of interest if he gets to the open market and something in the $2MM range could be doable. Lomberg and Thornton are cheap end-of-roster pieces and will either be retained or replaced with someone at a similar price point next season. In Thornton’s case, it’ll probably be the latter.
Nutivaara’s value has dipped since joining Florida last year. He has been on the third pairing when healthy and is in his second stint on IR already this season. That’s a high price for a player that’s sixth or seventh on the depth chart and his next deal will reflect that and could check in at half of his current AAV. Connauton’s value is what it is at this point, a two-way contract that’s close to the minimum salary while Juolevi needs to establish himself as an NHL regular before having a chance at getting into the seven-figure range.
Two Years Remaining
D Radko Gudas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9MM, UFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($3.25MM, UFA)
Huberdeau has very quietly produced more than a point per game in each of the last three seasons and is above that rate again in the early going this season. That’s impressive production for someone that is basically being paid second-line money. With some of the recent deals handed out to elite wingers, Huberdeau could push for more than $10MM a year although it wouldn’t be surprising if Florida tries to get him slightly below the $10MM that their captain just got. Hornqvist had a bounce-back 2020-21 campaign although he’s off to a tough start this season. The style he has played over the years tends to catch up with players as they age and considering he’ll be 36 when his next contract kicks in, it’s likely to be for considerably less than his current price tag as a result.
Weegar has worked his way up from being a role player on the third pairing to a very important part of Florida’s back end. He’s logging more than 24 minutes per game early on this season – top-pairing minutes – and his offensive game has shown considerable improvement as well. This has quickly become a very team-friendly contract and if he continues at the pace he’s on, he could be looking at coming close to doubling his price tag on the open market. Gudas is the player he was when he signed this contract – a third-pairing defensive player whose intimidation factor increases his value. As long as those two things remain true, there’s no reason to think his next contract will be much different than this one.
Three Years Remaining
F Anthony Duclair ($3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($2.667MM, UFA)
D Brandon Montour ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Sam Reinhart ($6.5MM, UFA)
Reinhart was Florida’s big addition over the offseason from Buffalo although they weren’t able to come to terms on a long-term agreement. Instead, he signed what amounted to another bridge deal, one that bought a couple of years of team control and both sides time to see how he fits in. Speculatively, his future could be tied to Huberdeau’s; if they re-sign him, it may be hard to fit Reinhart in as well. If he gets to the open market, he’ll be well-positioned to earn another raise. Duclair has found a home in Florida after bouncing around. As a secondary scorer, he’s in a role that suits him more than a primary piece and the offensive environment that Florida has now gives him a chance to provide some good value on that deal.
Montour bounced back last season and did well in his limited time with Florida which earned him some job security. His role has dropped this season as he’s primarily been on the third pairing but as long as he can contribute offensively, he’ll still provide a reasonable return even if he winds up being more limited at even strength than anticipated. Still just 27, there’s still time for him to work his way up the depth chart as well. Forsling has been a nice waiver claim for the Panthers as he has gone from being a depth piece to one of their top blueliners. Considering he was on waivers back in January, the price tag may seem expensive but he is outperforming that new deal so far.
Blackhawks Fire Jeremy Colliton
The Blackhawks have decided to make a change behind the bench as the team announced that head coach Jeremy Colliton along with assistants Tomas Mitell and Sheldon Brookbank have been relieved of their duties effective immediately. Derek King, who had been coaching with AHL Rockford, will take over as interim head coach while Marc Crawford remains on as an assistant coach. Anders Sorenson, meanwhile, replaces King as the head coach with the IceHogs. Interim GM Kyle Davidson released the following statement:
Our on-ice goal remains the same: to build an elite system of hockey – and we have not delivered on that. The fact is our play and competitiveness must improve. Every game, every shift. Today’s coaching changes are difficult, especially given the incredible personal connections Jeremy and others have made with our players in their development. We appreciate Jeremy’s contributions to the organization over the last three seasons, and we wish him and his family the best.
We appreciate Derek’s willingness to step in behind the bench as we embark on our search for our next permanent head coach. His NHL experience as a player and work with our younger players in Rockford over the last four years gives us great confidence in his ability to lead the Chicago Blackhawks in this interim role.
The dismissal comes three years to the day that Colliton took over from former head coach Joel Quenneville. Over that stretch, Chicago hasn’t really progressed. The team posted a 87-92-26 record with the 36-year-old behind the bench with their only playoff appearance coming in 2019-20 where they lost in five games to Vegas in the first round. That, of course, was the season that the postseason was expected in the summer bubble; their record wouldn’t have been good enough to qualify otherwise.
After a tough showing last season, now-former GM Stan Bowman tried to bolster the roster, adding Seth Jones and Jake McCabe to their back end, Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes, and Tyler Johnson up front while welcoming Jonathan Toews back to the fold as well. At a minimum, they were expected to be considerably better if not contending for a playoff spot. Instead, they struggled mightily as Chicago has just a 1-9-2 record this season while they’ve allowed the most goals in the league with 47. Clearly, something wasn’t working and Davidson has decided that a fresh voice is needed to try to turn things around.
While King is quite familiar with several players on Chicago’s roster having worked with them with the IceHogs since 2016-17 (including as the head coach since 2018-19), it will be his first coaching role at the NHL level of any kind. That, coupled with the hole they’ve dug themselves in the standings, puts the 54-year-old in a tough situation, not entirely dissimilar to the one Colliton was in when he took over for Quenneville.
The fact that Davidson, himself only in the GM role on an interim basis, was given the green light to make this significant switch is noteworthy. CEO Danny Wirtz indicated in a statement that Davidson has “our full confidence and autonomy to make hockey decisions” which certainly suggests he’ll be given consideration for the full-time GM position. In the meantime, Chicago will be conducting parallel searches with the team looking to determine Bowman’s replacement and Davidson likely heading up the search for the full-time head coach. It’s not too often that a team has both an interim head coach and general manager but that’s the situation that the Blackhawks now find themselves in moving forward.
ESPN’s Emily Kaplan was the first to report that Colliton had been let go with King taking over.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Atlantic Notes: Campbell, Lightning, Foligno
There were reports earlier this week that the Maple Leafs had started extension talks with goaltender Jack Campbell. However, his agent Kurt Overhardt told Postmedia’s Michael Traikos that no such discussions have taken place:
That’s so inaccurate. I can tell you that there’s been no material discussions (with the Leafs). Jack just wants to play hockey. That’s it.
The 29-year-old is in the second and final season of a deal that pays $1.65MM, a bargain considering he has posted a 2.16 GAA with a .923 SV% since coming over in a trade from Los Angeles back in February of last year. The Kings made that move in part to open up a spot for Calvin Petersen. Interestingly enough, Petersen’s recent contract – a three-year, $15MM pact – may be an attainable contract for Campbell but with Toronto’s cap situation, it’s unlikely the Maple Leafs will be able to afford to bring him back at a price tag anywhere near that amount.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
- The Lightning did show interest in bringing back defenseman Luke Schenn this summer, notes Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription link). However, Schenn opted to go to Vancouver which paved the way for Tampa Bay to add Zach Bogosian on a three-year deal worth less than $1MM per season which should work out even better for them once he’s able to return from his lower-body injury later this month.
- Bruins winger Nick Foligno returned to practice on Friday, relays Boston Hockey Now’s Joe Haggerty. The veteran has been dealing with an upper-body injury that sidelined him in the second game of the season and while he has been ruled out for tonight’s game against Toronto, he could be an option to return soon after that, perhaps as early as Tuesday versus Ottawa.
PHR Mailbag: Red Wings Defense, Hertl, Maple Leafs, Sleepers, Finances
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Detroit’s back end, what Tomas Hertl’s next contract could look like, Toronto’s roster composition, under the radar minor leaguers who could make an NHL impact over the next few years, and a note on teams who may have needed financial help last season. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.
Johnny Z: Filip Hronek was healthy scratched for two games. He has been the Wings’ leader in TOI for two years and logged big minutes for the first four games. Is Stevie about to trade him? It seems plausible as his value seems very good and has three years left on his deal.
Benching a player at this time of the season is rarely for a trade. A few days before the trade deadline, sure, it’s protecting the asset but in the first few weeks, it’s to send a message. Obviously, Jeff Blashill wasn’t overly impressed with Hronek’s play and decided to get that point across early on. It seems to have worked as Hronek has been better since coming back.
You’re absolutely correct in that he would have a lot of trade value. Few others on their team have the type of value that Hronek does. But at the same time, he’s someone that should be viewed as part of their future core. On the back end, Moritz Seider looks promising, but he’s about the only one other than Hronek on the current roster that plausibly has a shot at being an impact piece when they come out of their rebuild. (Gustav Lindstrom could factor in as well but as more of a depth player than an impact one.) With that in mind, they should be looking to hold onto Hronek.
YzerPlan19: With the hole on the right side in LA and the ton of young assets they have could the Kings be a potential trade partner?
The fit that I see isn’t one that would yield one of those young assets. Hronek and Seider aren’t moving. Lindstrom is too young to be moved just yet. That takes three of the four righties on the NHL roster off the table.
Then there’s Troy Stecher, a player who has felt like a placeholder from the moment he signed with the Red Wings. He’s someone that can play on the second pairing if needed or be a minute-eater on the third pairing. That’s more of what the Kings are looking for to replace Sean Walker (since they can’t do a lot to replace Drew Doughty as he’s expected back six weeks or so from now). He’s a rental and at $1.7MM, he’s cheap enough that it would leave them enough wiggle room to afford to recall someone from the minors into the rest of Walker’s LTIR space. The on-ice fit is there and the cap fit is there.
But here’s the thing. The return isn’t going to be overly significant. I don’t think he’d land a second-rounder at the deadline so that sort of sets the baseline of a third-rounder or equivalent prospect here with maybe a late pick tacked on. That’s not the type of young asset you may have been hoping for but if they want to give Lindstrom a longer look, it’s a move that is probably worth making from Detroit’s perspective.
mz90gu: What kind of contract can Hertl expect?
This is the type of question that should probably get its own article at some point closer to free agency. Hertl has a lot going for him – he’ll only be 28 (so a max-term deal is realistic), he plays a premium position that is in high demand and short supply, and he’s played around a 70-point pace for the last few years. That’s a great combination to have heading into a walk year.
At first glance, I think Sean Couturier’s extension with Philadelphia is the ballpark of where Hertl’s deal will fall. They’re a year apart age-wise and have produced at similar extrapolated numbers over the past few seasons. Couturier has a Selke Trophy which Hertl doesn’t (and won’t get) so it’s not a perfect comparison but he’s going to get a premium if he makes it to the open market.
Couturier signed for eight years and $62MM, a $7.75MM AAV. I think Hertl’s range sandwiches that amount, falling between $7.5MM and $8MM. If he re-signs with the Sharks, the ability to add an eighth year to the contract could push the cap hit towards the lower part of that range. That said, making the cap situation work with a raise like that will be easier said than done for GM Doug Wilson.
KAR 120C: Odds that Dubas either trades one of his four or loses his job. As a result of putting 50% of the cap into four players and it not working out well (imho).
@Darrell_Samuels: ‘Simple’ question – how do you fix the Toronto Maple Leafs?
I’m going to combine these as the answers sort of go together.
Dubas will eventually lose his job – all general managers do; it’s part of the business. So I’m going to put odds on one of those things happening this season. I’ll set it at around 10%. I don’t think Toronto will move one of their ‘core four’ up front during the regular season and it’s difficult to move big contracts for full value in-season. And unless things fall completely off the rails over the next couple of months, there probably isn’t going to be an in-season GM change either.
A lot depends on whether they can get out of the first round. That’s the barometer for success this year; numbers during the regular season aren’t going to matter if they’re quickly bounced again. Before the season, I predicted they’d win a round so I’ll stick by that and if that happens, Dubas will likely stick around.
But since these questions came out, Morgan Rielly signed his new deal, one that puts another big contract on the books. I’m not sure they should try the same approach of rounding out the roster with a bunch of low-cost deals and hoping that the end result is different this time but it’s not as if they have a lot of options as their top two centers aren’t being moved.
It sounds a little counter-intuitive to say that moving a top forward is how to fix things but with how their cap is structured, it’s the only way to really change things; swapping sub-$1MM players isn’t going to move the needle much. If Mitch Marner is moved for a top-six winger making half as much as he is plus some futures, there’s the cap space to keep Jack Campbell and maybe have a bit left over to put towards upgrading one of their cheaper forwards. If they want to risk going with Petr Mrazek as the full-fledged starter and go cheap on the backup goalie, then the Marner move would give them a chance to add another middle-six piece to deepen the roster and a bit more quality depth up front.
Long term, their hope is that players like Nicholas Robertson, Rodion Amirov, and maybe someone like Alex Steeves can come in and play a regular role and lengthen the lineup. At that time, that extra offensive depth could push them over the proverbial hump; at least, that’s the plan.
Is that truly fixing things though? Not really but they’ve made this commitment and it’s a hard one to get out of. If Auston Matthews decides to walk in free agency in 2024, that would be the next opportunity to dramatically change the shape and structure of the roster. Until then, they either stick with their current direction or move a winger to give themselves a bit of wiggle room to fill other areas of the roster. If I had to guess right now, I’d lean towards sticking with the current plan so I’d put the odds of moving a winger at 45% or close to a coin flip. The next few months will be interesting on that front.