Islanders Notes: Nelson, AHL Goalie Depth, Salo
The past few seasons have been a bumpy ride for the New York Islanders, plagued by injuries and inconsistency. It’s kept them from making any deep playoff runs, something they did with relatively high frequency throughout the late 2010s and early 2020s.
One player who hasn’t let any outside noise affect him is center Brock Nelson. He’s recorded career-best offensive totals in each of the last two seasons, eclipsing the 35-goal mark for the first time in 2021-22 and the 70-point mark for the first time in 2022-23. With Nelson locked in for just two more seasons at a rather affordable $6MM cap hit, some had wondered if his name could be in trade talks with the Islanders’ roster tight to the salary cap. Today, however, The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz shut down all speculation of a move in his latest mailbag, calling any trade rumors involving Nelson “utter nonsense.”
Many people didn’t have Nelson transforming into a number-one center overnight in his 30s on their bingo cards, but that’s exactly what’s happened. He’s one of the team’s most valuable forwards, often overlooked in favor of higher-profile names like Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal. His role next season will be to help boost the production of the team’s better secondary scorers like Kyle Palmieri and Pierre Engvall, a line that was rather effective down the stretch of the 2022-23 regular season.
More from Kurz on some pressing Islanders topics today:
- The Islanders’ weakest position when it comes to organizational depth is inarguably goaltending. While the team boasts one of the best NHL-level tandems in Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, their minor-league netminding leaves much to be desired, and Kurz notes the Islanders are absolutely still in the market for a veteran third-string goaltender. Currently, the starting job in AHL Bridgeport is slated for 23-year-old Jakub Skarek, who’s yet to post above a .896 save percentage throughout four seasons in the minors. Kurz names Jaroslav Halak, Brian Elliott, Martin Jones, and Alex Stalock as options with notable NHL experience still looking for a home who may have to settle for a minor-league role.
- One player who went into last season with high expectations was defenseman Robin Salo, the team’s 2017 second-round pick. He made the Islanders out of camp but didn’t stick, recording four points in 11 games throughout the first part of the season before the team assigned him to Bridgeport permanently in January. He posted just 14 assists in 38 games with Bridgeport, though, failing to score a goal throughout the entire season. After a rough year, Kurz says he’d be surprised to see Salo make the opening night roster again next season and thinks he’s slipped pretty far down the team’s depth chart of left-shot defenders. He also went so far as to call Salo a trade candidate and that if he’s not moved, the team may not issue him a qualifying offer next offseason.
Anaheim Ducks’ Isac Lundeström Sustains Achilles Injury
Anaheim Ducks center Isac Lundeström sustained an Achilles injury during offseason training in Sweden earlier this month and will miss the start of next season as a result, according to a report from Swedish outlet NSD translated by The Sporting Tribune’s Derek Lee.
Lee notes Lundeström suffered the injury about three weeks ago and has already undergone surgery, meaning he’s still got five to six months of recovery time ahead of him. That puts Lundeström’s season debut around mid-January 2024, potentially keeping him out for over half the season.
It’s a tough break for the 23-year-old Swede, who the Ducks hoped could take a major step in his development, at least offensively. Selected 23rd overall in the 2018 NHL Draft, Lundeström has been a star defensively on a team that’s struggled heavily to keep the puck out of their own net. He’s also averaged nearly two minutes per game on the penalty kill over the past three years and posted good results in the process.
If he stops developing now, he’s a perfectly fine third-line center, even on a contending team. That being said, Anaheim would love for him to display point production more in line with the 16 goals he put up in 2021-22, not the four goals and 14 points he posted in 61 games last season.
He’s a young player that often flies under the radar when talking about Anaheim’s next-generation core, which includes players like Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson. Still, he’s a promising long-term piece for the Ducks. It’s not like Lundeström’s received terribly sheltered minutes, either – he skated an average of 14:20 per game last season and still managed to keep his head above water defensively.
His absence opens up a hole for some other prospects, potentially Benoit-Olivier Groulx or Nikita Nesterenko, to get some more ice time with the Ducks out of the gate. Groulx, who’s posted double-digit goal totals on the AHL’s San Diego Gulls for three consecutive seasons, was selected 31 picks after Lundeström in the 2018 draft.
Lundeström is in the second season of a two-year, $3.6MM contract signed following an arbitration filing in 2022. He’s eligible for arbitration once again next offseason, though missing a good chunk of the year due to injury certainly won’t help his case.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Drew O’Connor, Avoid Arbitration
The Pittsburgh Penguins have re-signed winger Drew O’Connor to a two-year deal worth $925K per season, according to a team announcement Wednesday morning.
O’Connor was Pittsburgh’s last unsigned RFA and one of two unsettled arbitration cases remaining league-wide. Anaheim Ducks winger Troy Terry, whose hearing is scheduled for today, is now the only unsettled case. Pittsburgh and O’Connor were headed for a hearing on Friday, August 4, the last day on this year’s arbitration calendar.
The 25-year-old forward continues working toward a full-time NHL role, which the team hopes he can achieve in 2023-24. Many expected O’Connor to lock down an everyday role in the team’s bottom six last season, and while he did skate in a career-high 46 games with Pittsburgh, he didn’t avoid AHL assignment either. O’Connor started last season in the minors, recording 22 points in 20 games with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins before he was permanently called up to Pittsburgh in December 2022.
Those scoring totals in WBS are closely aligned with what he posted the previous two seasons, meaning he clearly has nothing left to prove in the minors after scoring at around a point-per-game clip for three years. His five goals and 11 points in 46 games in Pittsburgh last season seem more impressive when you consider he was playing just 9:49 per game.
O’Connor also had quite a strong end to the 2022-23 season, doing well with the United States at the 2023 IIHF World Championship in Finland and Latvia. He was among the team’s best offensive players, ranking fourth with eight points in ten games.
Since signing in Pittsburgh as an undrafted free agent out of Dartmouth College at the end of the 2019-20 season, O’Connor’s posted eight goals, nine assists and 17 points in 78 games with the Pens. They’re totals he’ll undoubtedly build significantly on next season, with him currently penciled in on the team’s fourth line.
While Pittsburgh may have their last necessary signing done, their offseason is far from over. Per CapFriendly, the team currently sits roughly $3.2MM over the $83.5MM salary cap Upper Limit after signing O’Connor. However, their roster projection at the time of writing includes 13 forwards, eight defensemen and three goalies – putting them one player over the maximum 23-player roster. Some of that cap overrun will be cleared by assigning one of Casey DeSmith or Alex Nedeljkovic to the minors, depending on who wins the backup spot to starting goalie Tristan Jarry out of training camp.
This won’t fix everything, though, as neither of their cap hits ($1.8MM and $1.5MM, respectively) are fully buriable in the minors. That means they’ll still carry some cap penalty if they’re not on the active roster. Given the maximum buriable threshold next season is $1.15MM, this would mean Nedeljkovic would still carry a $350K cap hit if assigned to the AHL, while DeSmith would carry a $650K cap hit.
Don’t forget the Penguins remain deep in trade rumors to acquire San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson, who’s fresh off a Norris Trophy-winning season and a 100-point campaign. While getting O’Connor locked into a six-figure contract for two years is a nice bit of work for interim general manager Kyle Dubas, the team is far from having their ducks in a row ahead of next season.
Some cap relief could come soon, though. Settling with O’Connor has opened up a second buyout window for Pittsburgh, which opens in three days and will last for 48 hours. As a reminder, post-arbitration settlement buyouts are subject to strict regulations: the player must have been on the team’s reserve list at the time of the 2023 trade deadline, and they must have a cap hit of at least $4MM. Two potential targets for Pittsburgh are forward Mikael Granlund and defenseman Jeff Petry, who are both locked in through the next two seasons at rather extravagant cap hits of $5MM and $6.25MM, respectively.
Signing O’Connor to a two-year deal buys up his remaining RFA years and walks him directly to unrestricted free agency in 2025, as CapFriendly notes.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Edmonton Oilers Reach Deal With Ryan McLeod
Ryan Rishaug of TSN is reporting that the Edmonton Oilers have reached an agreement with restricted free agent center Ryan McLeod. The Oilers and McLeod were set to go to arbitration on August 4th, but have now reached a settlement without the help of an arbitrator. Rishaug is reporting that the deal is a two-year contract worth $2.1MM per season.
Last night, it was reported that the Oilers and McLeod were close to a deal but some recent developments around the league had changed the calculus. It is not yet known what changed today, but the Oilers took care of a big piece of business as they look to sign their final restricted free agents to new deals for the 2023-24 season.
McLeod just finished his third season in the NHL and has established himself as a good depth center who can provide some offense and play up in the lineup if needed. McLeod just finished a year in which he produced 11 goals and 12 assists in 57 games and posted good analytics as well. McLeod will still be a restricted free agent when his contract expires in two seasons and will remain in the driver’s seat if he continues to improve from year to year.
With this deal in place, it gives both sides certainty and security. For the Oilers it allows them to have a better understanding of the cap space they have available while they negotiate with defenseman Evan Bouchard. For McLeod, he gets to cash in on his first contract in the seven figures and gets the added security of having next year’s money guaranteed.
Examining The Boston Bruins Salary Cap Situation
Earlier today, an independent arbitrator settled the contract for goaltender Jeremy Swayman and the Boston Bruins, awarding the young goaltender a one-year, $3.475MM contract for the 2023-24 NHL season. Now that Swayman has a contract for next year and much of the heavy lifting of the offseason is already concluded, the Bruins currently find themselves with roughly $429k in cap space to start the season.
Boston has already used one buyout this offseason, buying out the final one-year, $3MM left on the contract of defenseman Mike Reilly‘s contract. The team will now have a second buyout window opening in three days, which the team may utilize, but is incredibly unlikely due to the eligible player requirements. The player must have been on the team’s reserve list at last year’s trade deadline, and must also have a cap hit of $4MM or more on their current contract. Of the current roster on the Bruins currently carrying a cap hit of $4MM or more, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Charlie Coyle, Pavel Zacha, Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Carlo, and Linus Ullmark are the only ones that make the cut.
Given that Boston is unlikely to cut ties with one of the players listed above for absolutely nothing in return, the team might have to look to the trade market to free up more salary. This notion has already been backed up by recent reporting, given that General Manager Cam Neely has already mentioned the team would be looking to bolster their center depth after legendary center Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement and a similar outcome is expected for center David Krejci.
In a creative solution, the Bruins’ best trade partner may be the Calgary Flames, with both Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund available for the right price. After already moving forward Tyler Toffoli this summer, and Lindholm and Backlund unsure about their future in Alberta, the Flames may take a similar approach with those two players as well.
If the Bruins do land an impact center such as Lindholm, they may have to become more amicable about moving out the contract of Coyle or Carlo. It will be difficult, given Coyle’s leadership in the postseason as well as Carlo’s incredible defensive play over the last several years, but it may be the prudent move going forward for this organization.
Similar to last year’s true ‘hockey’ trade involving Matthew Tkachuk, a swap of Coyle and Carlo to the Flames for Lindholm and possibly Nikita Zadorov may be the wise decision for both teams. Coyle and Carlo would fill in roster spots for Calgary without totally eliminating their winning potential for next season, as well as give them some contract term to hang on to. For the Bruins, it would likely be a wash, as Lindholm fills a top-six role much better than Coyle, but Zadorov would be a downgrade from the play of Carlo. Given that both Lindholm and Zadorov will be UFA’s at season’s end, and with the expected salary cap increase at the same time, the Bruins will have more financial flexibility to sign these players to extensions as well.
If anything, given the Bruins’ free agent signings this offseason, they should have the defensive depth to absorb the loss of Carlo with both Kevin Shattenkirk and Ian Mitchell joining the roster as well. However, they will need to make an upgrade at the center position before next season starts if they have any hope of competing in the Atlantic Division. The division already holds the defending Eastern Conference Champion Florida Panthers, as well as the extremely talented Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs. A team led by Pastrnak, Marchand, and McAvoy should never be counted out of contention, but the growing sense is that Boston will need to make a move to cut salary, as well as find a center in hopes of replacing the production vacated by Bergeron and Krejci.
AHL Notes: Konowalchuk, Zloty, Wylie, Polei
Filling out the rest of their bench before the start of the 2023-24 AHL season, the Colorado Eagles have hired Steve Konowalchuk as an associate coach (Tweet Link). This will be Konowalchuk’s third stint within the Colorado Avalanche organization, both as a player and as a coach.
In his playing career, Konowalchuk was originally drafted in the third round of the 1991 NHL Draft. Never an elite point-scorer by any stretch of the imagination, Konowalchuk was a quality defensive player for the Washington Capitals for a little over a decade, assisting in the team’s run to the Stanley Cup Final in 1998. Right before the 2002-03 campaign, Konowalchuk was named the tenth captain in Capitals history and would hold that role for two seasons, after a draft day trade sent him to the Avalanche in 2004. Playing in 14 seasons in the NHL, Konowalchuk had his career unfortunately cut short by a Long QT Syndrome diagnosis in 2006.
Taking a few seasons away from the game, Konowalchuk finally returned to the NHL, serving as an assistant coach in Colorado under head coach Joe Sacco from 2009-2011. Konowalchuk then headed Northwest, signing on with the Seattle Thunderbirds of the WHL as a head coach, a position he would hold until the 2017-18 season. He had a brief stay with the Anaheim Ducks, serving as an assistant coach with the team for one season, before then settling in with the New York Rangers for three years as a scout. Finally, Konowalchuk oversaw the head coaching operation with the Red Deer Rebels of the WHL as his last stop before joining the Eagles.
Other notes:
- The Texas Stars have announced the signing of defenseman Ben Zloty to a one-year contract for the 2023-24 AHL season. An undrafted player out of the WHL, Zloty spent the last four years with the Winnipeg Ice, serving as an assistant captain in his final season with the team. In a total of 207 games spent with a single organization, Zloty scored 26 goals and 163 assists for the Ice and also scored three goals and 37 assists in 34 playoff games in his final two years in Winnipeg.
- A former fifth-round pick of the Philadelphia Flyers, defenseman Wyatte Wylie has reached a one-year AHL agreement with the Ontario Reign. Appearing as a solid prospect after his last season with the Everett Silvertips of the WHL, Wylie hasn’t been able to transfer his puck-moving ability to the AHL up to this point. In 131 games played, all for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, Wylie has scored nine goals and 26 assists in total. Although not much came of it in the long run, Wylie was finally able to appear in a Calder Cup playoff race for the first time in three seasons, going scoreless in three games.
- Now a seasoned veteran of the AHL, forward Evan Polei has agreed to a one-year contract with the Phantoms for next season. This will be the fifth team Polei has played on in the last six seasons, having also spent time with the Bakersfield Condors, San Antonio Rampage, Cleveland Monsters, and Manitoba Moose. The most successful stretch of play came during his time in Manitoba, scoring back-to-back 20-point seasons. Polei will serve as an experienced veteran in the bottom six of the Phantom’s lineup, showing off the ability to chip in timely goals.
Jeremy Swayman Contract Settled Via Arbitration
Boston Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman has been awarded a $3.475MM one-year contract in arbitration, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
This news comes just a few hours after the team reached an agreement on a two-year contract with their other pending RFA, Trent Frederic. They now have cost certainty on their roster for next season, although CapFriendly projects them to have just over $3.1MM in cap space before this award is factored in, meaning they stand just over $600k above the $83.5MM salary cap with a full roster.
In our more detailed breakdown of Swayman’s arbitration case, we projected an award between $3.55MM and $3.75MM. This award comes in just below that projection, although it is ever so slightly above the mid-point between the two parties’ filings. Swayman had filed for a $4.8MM AAV while the Bruins filed for $2MM, making the mid-point $3.4MM.
Swayman gets a little bit more than that, and although that’s far from the $4.8MM he filed for it still represents a significant pay raise from the $925k against the cap he cost in 2022-23.
He fully earned that hefty pay raise with his play last season, as well. In his age-24 season, Swayman played in 37 games and went 24-6-4 with a .920 save percentage and 2.27 goals-against-average.
While those numbers were undoubtedly aided by the Bruins’ historic regular season dominance and their exceptional group of defensemen, Swayman’s 2021-22 (.914 save percentage in 41 games) and 2020-21 (.945 save percentage in 10 games) beef up his resume.
Swayman was also an accomplished starter in his college days at the University of Maine, and looking at his performance at every level of hockey it’s hard to argue he’s not worth the $3.475MM he’s been awarded today. Where this leaves Boston, though, is in a curious spot.
Although some might assume that the Bruins would be interested in trading Swayman since they already have Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark entrenched as a starter, that’s highly unlikely to happen. As The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa noted in his recent mailbag, the Bruins believe an Ullmark-Swayman tandem “will be their position of strength for 2023-24” and help them return to the playoffs despite losing some high-end talent in Patrice Bergeron, Dmitry Orlov, and Tyler Bertuzzi. (subscription link)
Although Brandon Bussi is waiting in the wings playing for the AHL’s Providence Bruins and could be ready to handle backup duty, Ullmark does have a history of injuries earlier in his career and the safety Swayman provides to the Bruins’ goaltending depth is legitimately valuable.
That being said, one has to believe that Swayman will eventually want to be a true number-one goalie, as his talent certainly merits receiving that chance. Whether that chance will come in Boston remains to be seen.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Latest On Mike Hoffman
Two years into his career as a Montreal Canadien, it’s abundantly clear that Mike Hoffman‘s three-year, $4.5MM AAV contract from the 2021 free agent cycle hasn’t quite worked out as planned for both parties.
The Canadiens went from Stanley Cup finalist the season before Hoffman’s arrival to NHL basement-dweller after his signing, kicking off an organizational rebuild that saw the departure of the GM who inked Hoffman to his deal, Marc Bergevin.
Hoffman, who is set to turn 34 in November, saw his production decline as he went from scoring at a 27-goal, 57-point 82-game pace with the St. Louis Blues to an 18-goal, 42-point 82-game scoring rate in Montreal.
It’s likely that Montreal is feeling some buyer’s remorse after sinking $4.5MM AAV into a player who had six consecutive seasons of 20 or more goals from 2014 to 2020 and has only scored 15 in each of his two seasons with the Canadiens.
That price tag is made all the more regrettable given the flat-cap environment the NHL still finds itself navigating, where cap space is held at an absolute premium.
Now, despite serving as a rare veteran scorer in Montreal who has been relatively healthy over the past two years, it appears Hoffman’s grip on an NHL job in Montreal could be weakening. In a mailbag completed by The Athletic’s Arpon Basu, Basu writes that “there’s a very real possibility [Hoffman] gets waived and assigned to Laval.” (subscription link)
Basu’s rationale is that the Canadiens have a growing group of young forwards the Canadiens will want to offer prime player development opportunities at the NHL level, and he doesn’t think “Canadiens management is willing to allow a development opportunity pass them by with the slight hope that playing Hoffman could lead to a trade at the deadline.”
It would certainly be a bit of a drastic step to see Hoffman waived and playing in Laval (it’s extremely unlikely he would be claimed at a $4.5MM cap hit), though it’s not without precedent in Montreal. Another former marquee Canadiens UFA signing, Karl Alzner, spent two seasons in Laval after the value he provided on his $4.625MM AAV free agent contract went up in flames due to on-ice regression.
Hoffman is a pure goal scorer who despite improved underlying metrics from last season offers little in the way of defensive value and a highly limited ability to play in a role on a checking line. Unless an injury hits before opening night, the Canadiens are highly likely to reserve top-nine forward roles for Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Josh Anderson, Alex Newhook, Kirby Dach, Brendan Gallagher, Juraj Slafkovský, and Sean Monahan.
That would leave Hoffman battling for one final top-nine slot against Rafaël Harvey-Pinard, who matched Hoffman’s goal total last season despite playing just 34 games, Jesse Ylönen, who flashed some offensive potential late last season and is waiver-eligible for the first time in his career, and prospects such as Sean Farrell, Josh Roy, and Emil Heineman.
One has to believe that with player development being of paramount importance to the Canadiens’ plans under head coach Martin St. Louis, one of those names will end up the Canadiens’ preference for that last top-nine spot over Hoffman.
Montreal could then keep Hoffman in the press box as a 13th forward, though that would require placing Christian Dvorak on injured reserve or exposing fan favorite Michael Pezzetta to waivers. And even if the club keeps Hoffman on the NHL roster in Dvorak’s absence, he’s expected to return to full health relatively early in the season anyway which could force the club to choose between waiving Hoffman or Pezzetta.
Taking this whole roster picture into account, it appears, as Basu suggests, that there is a very real path for Hoffman to be placed on waivers and play in the AHL next season. One injury could, of course, change all of that, and given the Canadiens’ injury luck during Hoffman’s tenure, it’s far from a certainty that the team remains healthy through the training camp and preseason process.
But if that doesn’t happen, we could see a former 36-goal, 70-point scorer with over 200 NHL goals on his resume exposed to waivers and playing minor-league hockey early in the 2023-24 campaign.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Carl Söderberg Announces Retirement
Swedish forward Carl Söderberg, who played in nearly 600 NHL games, has made the decision to end his playing career at the age of 37.
Söderberg’s retirement announcement, made via SportExpressen’s Johan Svensson, comes after the player’s second season playing SHL hockey with the Malmö Redhawks and two seasons removed from his last NHL campaign.
Söderberg was selected by the St. Louis Blues in the second round of the 2004 draft, 49th overall. He was seen as a toolsy six-foot-three forward who impressed at the junior level for Malmö, scoring 48 points in 27 games, and even managed to play in 24 games for Malmö’s first-team squad.
Söderberg struggled the following season, scoring just five points in 38 games as Malmö were relegated to the second-tier HockeyAllsvenskan.
In the Allsvenskan is where Söderberg took the first developmental leap of his career, scoring 39 points in 39 games and leading Malmö to promotion back to the top tier of Swedish hockey. Söderberg looked poised to keep the good times rolling the following season in 2006-07, scoring 30 points in 31 games at a significantly increased competition level compared to the Allsvenskan, before he was thrown a potentially career-threatening challenge.
After an opposing player’s attempted stick lift went awry, Söderberg was left with a detached retina and forced to undergo what he estimates was between eight to ten surgeries on his left eye. Söderberg missed quite a bit of time as a result and became legally blind in one eye, but ultimately returned to the ice for Malmö and became a top scorer for the club for the next four seasons, all played at the Allsvenskan level.
Söderberg would then move on from Malmö and spend two years with IK Oskarshamn in Sweden’s top league, finishing the 2012-13 season leading the league in goals with 31 to go alongside 60 total points. At that point he was 27 and decided he would try his luck in the NHL, signing a deal with the Boston Bruins. Although Söderberg’s career technically began poorly, as the Bruins suffered a heartbreaking loss in the 2013 Stanley Cup Final, Söderberg himself would go on to provide a major return on investment for the Bruins.
He scored 16 goals and 48 points in his rookie 2013-14 season and followed that up with 44 points as a sophomore. That earned Söderberg a hefty five-year, $4.75MM AAV contract with the Colorado Avalanche, where he would immediately set a career-high of 51 points and in 2018-19 hit the 20-goal plateau for the first time in his career.
In 2019 Söderberg was dealt to the Arizona Coyotes for what would be the final productive season of his career. After a 2020-21 season spent largely in depth roles for the Chicago Blackhawks and Avalanche, Söderberg returned to where it all started, to the SHL and Malmö. He would lead the team in scoring in 2021-22 and although his numbers declined this past season his 14 goals and 26 points played a crucial role in the club avoiding relegation and maintaining its spot in the SHL.
Although the Avalanche would go on to finally win the Stanley Cup championship they’d been building towards in 2021-22, Söderberg’s first away from the NHL, the leadership and the guidance Söderberg provided for younger players during the early days of the careers of players such as Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon means his contributions to the team’s eventual championship are undoubtable.
Beyond club hockey, Söderberg represented Sweden at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey and 2017 IIHF Men’s World Championships, winning a gold medal at the latter event. He finishes his career with quite a bit to be proud of, especially considering the major adversity he faced early in his career.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Boston Bruins, Trent Frederic Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement
11:00 AM: The Bruins have now officially announced the agreement, confirming the terms that were first reported by Friedman.
9:00 AM: The Boston Bruins have reached an agreement on a new contract with RFA forward Trent Frederic before today’s scheduled arbitration hearing. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Bruins have agreed with Frederic on a two-year, $2.3MM AAV contract extension. According to Bally Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland, the deal has a $250k signing bonus in its first year. 
The contract comes closer to Frederic’s desired AAV (he had filed for a one-year, $2.9MM deal) at the cost of an extra year of term, something the Bruins filed for albeit at a $1.4MM AAV.
In our more detailed breakdown of Frederic’s arbitration case, we projected “Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM,” which is exactly where this settlement came in.
At a $150k higher rate than the midpoint of the two parties’ filings, the Bruins have rewarded their second 2016 first-round pick for his breakout 2022-23 campaign. Frederic flew past his career highs to register 17 goals and 31 points in 79 games last season even while averaging just under 12 minutes of ice time per night.
As mentioned in our breakdown, Frederic’s possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t likely to be that of a one-year wonder, although one does wonder how he’d hold up if exposed to a more demanding role requiring him to handle more substantial minutes.
Frederic doesn’t boast a ton of offensive skill but as a six-foot-three, 214-pound forward with the versatility to play center or along the wing Frederic is the sort of forward who plays with an edge and provides enough scoring touch to be coveted by many clubs. This settlement marches Frederic to the unrestricted free agent market in two year’s time, and if he can seize the significant opportunity in front of him he could be lined up for a major payday at that point.
With Boston’s top two centers from last season in Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci out the door, Frederic could potentially get the opportunity to play center for one of Boston’s scoring lines, potentially slotting next to a star such as David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand. Although players such as Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are undoubtedly going to be first in line for those opportunities, Frederic could get his chance, which would be a potentially career-defining opportunity.
This two-year contract provides Frederic with a significant opportunity, but also heightened expectations. Now paid more than double the $1.05MM cap hit he played last season on, Frederic can no longer be the physical fourth-line presence he was earlier in his career. He’ll need to be more, and if he can do so he could stand to make quite a bit of money in two year’s time thanks to this new contract.
As for where this leaves the Bruins, they now have just over $3.1MM in cap space left over, and still await an arbitration award in netminder Jeremy Swayman‘s case. Swayman had his arbitration hearing on July 30th and therefore should have his award come in today, meaning the Bruins are close to reaching cost certainty for the team’s expected 2023-24 roster.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.