Arbitration Breakdown: Ilya Samsonov
While many players who elected salary arbitration have already settled with their teams, several players are still headed toward hearings, which start tomorrow with the Chicago Blackhawks and forward Philipp Kurashev. Slated for Friday, though, is one of the more intriguing cases still unresolved: Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last night that the two sides are still actively working on a short-term deal, which could get done over the next 48 hours and avoid going to arbitration. Arbitration is usually something teams look to avoid, given they’ll have to agree to any deal awarded under the $4.5MM mark per season. But in Toronto’s case, it’s a good thing – the team is already over the salary cap even with defenseman Jake Muzzin stashed on long-term injured reserve, meaning certainty around Samsonov’s cap hit next season is crucial for them to know exactly how much space to clear in follow-up moves. They’ll have financial assurance with Samsonov one way or another within the next four days.
Filings
Team: $2.4MM
Player: $4.9MM
Midpoint: $3.65MM
(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)
The Numbers
Last season was, far and away, Samsonov’s best performance to date. A Washington Capitals first-round selection in 2015, Samsonov had shown flashes of strong play during his time in the nation’s capital, especially during his rookie season in 2019-20 when he recorded a 16-6-2 record, .913 save percentage and finished 12th in Calder Trophy voting. After that, things went progressively downhill for the Russian netminder, though, seeing his numbers dip far below league average as injuries limited his playing time. After posting a relatively poor .896 save percentage with the Capitals in 2021-22, he was surprisingly cut loose from the team entirely, hitting the UFA market at age 25 after Washington didn’t issue him a qualifying offer.
Toronto extended him a one-year, $1.8MM prove-it deal to complete their tandem with Matt Murray, and Samsonov soon took over the de facto starting role for himself after a series of injuries kept Murray out of the crease for much of the season. While depth netminders Erik Kallgren and Joseph Woll also found their way into action, Samsonov started a career-high 40 games last year and put together the highest level of play from him in the NHL, even if he was inconsistent at times.
He may not be in the upper echelon of starting netminders, especially with only one top-flight-level season under his belt. Still, he outdueled countryman Andrei Vasilevskiy just a few months ago and was perhaps the most significant reason Toronto won their first playoff series in nearly two decades. An injury early in the Second Round kept him out of the last few games of playoff action, though.
With Toronto in a tight financial situation and Samsonov not having a proven track record, it makes sense why the Maple Leafs want to go short-term with their current starter. They do have Woll in the pipeline, who’s expected to be the full-time backup next season and could potentially be ready for the starting job in a few years. That said, Toronto would surely like to settle with Samsonov on a two- or three-year deal to solidify consistency in their crease.
Because Samsonov would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2024, he can only sign a one-year deal via arbitration – not two. If the two sides want a longer-term deal, they must settle before the hearing.
2022-23 Stats: 42 GP, 27-10-5, 4 SO, 2,476 mins, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%
Career Stats: 131 GP, 79-32-13, 10 SO, 7,341 mins, 2.65 GAA, .908 SV%
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation.
Vitek Vanecek (Devils) – If you’re looking for the framework of a potential deal, look no further than Samsonov’s former tandem partner in Washington. After two average seasons as a tandem netminder in D.C., Vanecek’s RFA rights were traded to New Jersey last offseason before he signed a three-year, $3.4MM AAV contract with the club. Coming off seasons of 37 and 42 games played and .908 save percentages in both seasons, Vanecek might have had consistency on his side more so than Samsonov, but he hadn’t reached the level Samsonov has at times throughout his young career. The latter is a bit of a unicorn in recent RFA goalie signings, and it makes sense why he’d want more than his ex-teammate, but Vanecek’s deal falls near the midpoint of the two filings.
Alexandar Georgiev (Avalanche) – Just a few days before Vanecek signed a deal with his new team in 2022, Georgiev signed the same contract with the Colorado Avalanche. Georgiev had more experience and was perhaps a more highly-touted solution as a starter than Vanecek, but he was coming off a rough year with the New York Rangers that saw his save percentage dip below the .900 mark. Samsonov’s performance last season was much better than either Vanecek’s or Georgiev’s before they signed their deals, though, something he’ll likely leverage in his hearing to make his case for an AAV in the $3.5-$4.5MM range.
Projection
This is the first arbitration case of the summer where the filing values have been publically exchanged, so it’s a bit more challenging to project a first-of-the-offseason deal, especially when there’s a lack of solid comparables in 2023 from which to compare Samsonov’s situation.
On a one-year deal with the potential to cash in for big money on the UFA market in 2024, though, it seems unlikely the arbitrator would rule significantly in Samsonov’s favor. The filings seem pretty reasonable based on past cases, and they’re positioned to grant Samsonov a deal right around the midpoint of the filings, potentially a bit higher. Expect something in the $3.75MM range on a one-year pact for Samsonov if the two sides don’t settle before Friday’s hearing.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Calgary Flames Still Hoping To Re-Sign Elias Lindholm
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported on the NHL Network today that he believes the Calgary Flames are still hoping to re-sign forward Elias Lindholm. The Flames have seen an exodus of players in recent seasons as they’ve watched multiple star players walk out the door, now they are just a year away from watching some more assets move on. Friedman feels that the Flames view Lindholm as a key piece moving forward and have prioritized getting a deal done with him.
What that deal would look like is anyone’s guess, however, Friedman makes several calculated guesses in the interview. He states that he’s long seen an extension for Lindholm in the $8MM to $8.5MM range, but given the predicament that Calgary is in, he wonders if the Flames will need to go closer to $9MM to get an extension done with the 28-year-old.
Lindholm will count $4.85MM against the cap this upcoming season which would make him a very desirable trade target even without an extension in place. For the Flames, if they are unable to sign Lindholm it could kick off a full rebuild as defenseman Noah Hanifin and forward Mikael Backlund have already stated their desire to not sign extensions in Calgary.
Friedman ends the Lindholm segment by saying that he doesn’t believe Lindholm has shut the door on a return to Calgary which could leave things wide open for a deal to be made. He is obviously quite comfortable in Calgary as he has flourished since coming over in a trade from the Carolina Hurricanes back in 2018. In five seasons with the Flames, Lindholm has put up 139 goals and 186 assists in 369 games which nearly doubles his output from his five seasons with Carolina.
Like much of the NHL, it feels as though the Flames are in a bit of a holding pattern. Many teams still want to clear money and make other additions, but with the flat cap, it has been nearly impossible to clear cap space. It’s possible that Calgary could start the 2023-24 regular season with some if not all their pending unrestricted free agents still in the lineup. However, if teams can create a second buyout window after arbitration cases, those buyouts could lead to a domino effect around the league.
Maple Leafs Notes: Nylander, Matthews, Samsonov
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on the NHL Network today that he believes that the Toronto Maple Leafs and forward William Nylander are at a standstill in their contract negotiations. He goes on to say that he doesn’t think a contract will get done anytime soon unless one of the sides budges dramatically from their position. Friedman’s belief is that Nylander doesn’t want to take a discount to remain with the Maple Leafs if their other top-end players aren’t willing to take one too.
It’s hard to fault Nylander’s logic, he has been playing on a contract well under his market value for a half-decade while several of his teammates have been collecting annual salaries north of $10MM. Chris Johnston reported weeks ago on the Chris Johnston show that Nylander’s ask on his next contract is an annual salary of around $10MM, while the Maple Leafs are countering with an extension offering him between $8MM and $9MM per year. Given the way things are going, it appears that Auston Matthews next contract could be a big factor in whether the Leafs can lock up Nylander to a long-term extension.
Should the Maple Leafs opt to dangle Nylander in the trade market there would be a long lineup of suitors for the 27-year-old. Nylander is coming off back-to-back 80+ point seasons and has become much more responsible with the puck as his career has gone on. He is no longer regarded as a turnover machine as he might have been in earlier parts of his career.
In other Maple Leafs notes:
- Speaking of Auston Matthews, Elliotte Friedman had a small update on the Maple Leafs star forward. Friedman told the NHL Network that he believes Matthews will sign an extension very soon that will be between three and five years. While it’s hardly a surprise to hear that Matthews is once again looking at signing a shorter-term deal in hopes of maximizing his earning potential, it is surprising to hear that Matthews would consider a five-year contract that would take him through most of his prime and into his early 30s. Even at 31 Matthews will likely be able to fetch a lucrative long-term deal, but he may not be able to command as much money as he could as a 29-year-old hitting free agency.
- Friedman also reported that he believes that the Maple Leafs don’t want to go beyond a three-year extension with restricted free-agent goaltender Ilya Samsonov. The Maple Leafs and Samsonov are expected to go to arbitration on July 21, meaning that arbitration numbers will be exchanged tomorrow morning. The 26-year-old netminder was terrific in his first season with Toronto posting a .919 save percentage to go along with a 2.33 goals-against average and a 27-10-5 record. The Maple Leafs are currently over the salary cap meaning that they will need to shuffle around money to fit in Samsonov’s new deal when it is completed.
Mikael Backlund Still Unsure About Extension With Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund has expressed uncertainty regarding a contract extension with the team, joining several current and former teammates who have expiring contracts after the 2023-24 season. In a recent interview with Swedish outlet SportExpressen, Backlund said he’s focused on playing out the upcoming season and will consider an extension based on how things unfold.
The 34-year-old Swedish two-way dynamo expressed his openness to signing an extension if the season goes well, but he also acknowledged that the future remains uncertain if things don’t go as planned. A translated quote from the interview reads, “I’m ready to come back and play the season, and if it goes great, I might want to extend after the season. If it doesn’t go well, we’ll see what happens.”
Backlund’s situation adds to the list of pending unrestricted free agents for the Flames in 2024, which includes names such as Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev, and Nikita Zadorov. The Flames have already dealt away one player who didn’t have an extension past next season in place, trading winger Tyler Toffoli to the New Jersey Devils for a 2023 third-round pick and forward Yegor Sharangovich.
If he does opt to test the free agent market next season, Calgary won’t want to lose him for nothing. Once a potential candidate for their captaincy, which has been vacant since the Seattle Kraken claimed Mark Giordano in the 2021 Expansion Draft, Backlund will almost certainly be dealt by the trade deadline in 2024 if the Flames aren’t in the playoff picture.
Departing Calgary would mean leaving the only NHL home Backlund’s ever known. The 2007 first-round pick has played in parts of 15 seasons for the Flames, skating in 908 games and recording 492 points while earning Selke Trophy votes on multiple occasions, especially later in his career.
In the interim, new general manager Craig Conroy has quite a lot of work to do in monitoring the situations of Calgary’s other pending UFAs. Priority number one is likely trading Hanifin, who’s been more explicit about his intentions not to re-sign. His opinion on staying in Alberta is less influenced by their performance next year than Backlund’s or Lindholm’s.
NHL Not Pursuing In-Season Tournament
The NHL has clarified that it has no plans to introduce an in-season tournament akin to the NBA’s upcoming European cup-style competition. NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly confirmed the league’s stance to ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski today, stating they are not seeking to follow the NBA’s lead.
The NBA and commissioner Adam Silver recently unveiled plans for an in-season tournament in November and December of next season, leading to speculation about NHL crossover considering the two leagues have long operated similarly in season length, conference alignment, and playoff format. These tournament games will count towards the teams’ regular-season standings, culminating in a championship game that will not affect their season record. Players on the winning team are also in line to earn significant financial incentives.
It would have been a wild step out of bounds for the NHL, whose season format has largely remained unchanged over the past few decades, save for season-shortening factors like lockouts and COVID or the addition of events such as outdoor games in recent years.
Daly emphasized that the NHL is not considering implementing a similar tournament structure. Responding to an inquiry from Wyshynski, he stated via email that “no consideration [is] being given to in-season tournaments.”
Marty Walsh, the newly-minted executive director of the NHLPA, also spoke to Wyshynski. While acknowledging that no formal discussions have taken place among the players, Walsh expressed openness toward exploring the concept of an in-season tournament:
I think it’s worth looking at anything that’s out there. I tell players all the time, even if you have an idea that you think is kind of off the wall a little bit, just run it by me. You never know what turns into a brilliant idea.
However, Walsh relayed that NHL players’ focus on changes to the season structure would revolve around international play, not additional league events. Since assuming the role of NHLPA head in February, Walsh said to Wyshynski that players encourage discussions surrounding the potential revival of the World Cup of Hockey in 2025 and the return of NHL participation in the Winter Olympics, next slated for Milan, Italy, in 2026. The NHL hasn’t sent its players to the Olympics in nearly a decade, last permitting them to attend the event in 2014.
It’s worth noting that an in-season tournament does exist in pro hockey, albeit on the other side of the Atlantic. The Champions Hockey League is an in-season tournament including 26 teams from top-level leagues in 13 European countries, with the number of berths per league divvied up based on how well teams from that league performed in the previous CHL season.
Toronto Maple Leafs Hire Derek Clancey
The Toronto Maple Leafs have filled out their front office, hiring former Vancouver Canucks executive Derek Clancey as assistant general manager with a player personnel specialty today, according to a team release.
Vancouver announced Clancey’s departure just minutes before Toronto picked him up. In Toronto, the 54-year-old executive reunites with general manager Brad Treliving, with whom he served as a pro scout in 2021-22 while both were members of the Calgary Flames.
Toronto is now Clancey’s third team in as many seasons, but don’t take that as a poor reflection on his career resume. Joining the NHL ranks in 2007, he was a part of the Pittsburgh Penguins front office for all four of their Stanley Cup Final appearances in 2008, 2019, 2015, and 2016, first as a pro scout before transitioning to their director of professional scouting.
Clancey is the third major addition/replacement in Toronto’s front office this season, joining Treliving and special assistant to the GM Shane Doan as the new faces among Maple Leafs’ executives. His focus with Toronto will undoubtedly be on pro talent evaluation, and his input will be highly sought after when discussing potential trades, waiver claims, or free agent signings.
Canucks general manager Jim Rutherford later released a statement, confirming Vancouver would not pursue a replacement for Clancey and will collectively replace his role among the other assistant general managers.
Alex Galchenyuk To Enter NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program
Free agent forward Alex Galchenyuk is entering the NHL and NHLPA’s player assistance program after being arrested on multiple charges earlier this month and having his contract for next season terminated by the Arizona Coyotes, ESPN’s Emily Kaplan reports today.
Just days after being terminated on July 13, multiple reports had obtained the police report of Galchenyuk’s July 9 arrest in Scottsdale, Arizona, which revealed Galchenyuk allegedly made violent threats and used racial slurs towards officers. He has since reached out to apologize to the Scottsdale Police offers involved in a letter expressing remorse, Kaplan says.
Per Kaplan, Galchenyuk could enter the player assistance program as early as today. He was charged with various misdemeanors stemming from the arrest, including a hit-and-run charge as originally reported by The Athletic’s Katie Strang, and released on his own recognizance after the arrest.
Kaplan says Galchenyuk has also apologized directly to the Coyotes organization. While not signed by an NHL team, Galchenyuk is still eligible to receive assistance as a member of the NHLPA. His entrance to the program will not impact his contract status with Arizona, and he will remain an unrestricted free agent after exiting the program.
Minor Transactions: 07/18/23
While NHL free agency is heading into a lull, the wire of transaction activity in other leagues is still hot with everyday news. European leagues have recently made a few big splashes, with the NL’s ZSC Lions gaining Denis Malgin on a five-year deal. But there’s a flurry of other moves to keep track of throughout notable major and minor leagues in both North America and Europe, and as always, we’re keeping track of today’s movements here:
- Former Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Garret Sparks continues his journey around the minor leagues, signing a one-year AHL contract with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. Despite even seeing some NHL action in 2021-22 with the Los Angeles Kings, Sparks spent last season on an ECHL deal, recording a .887 save percentage in 14 games with the Orlando Solar Bears. It’s a far cry from his younger days when he consistently finished near the top of AHL leaderboards with the Toronto Marlies, but he’ll now provide some depth netminding for the Penguins organization. He could very well see assignment back to the ECHL with the Wheeling Nailers next year, the Penguins’ affiliate.
- The AHL’s Manitoba Moose also made a pair of transactions today, getting defensemen Dean Stewart and Dawson Barteaux under contract for next season. Stewart, 25, spent last season in a Moose jersey, playing in a bottom-pairing role but putting together a solid season with 18 points in 61 games. An AHL rookie and former Arizona Coyotes draft pick, Stewart won the internal Moose Rookie of the Year award and got some looks on the power play too. Barteaux, a 2018 pick of the Dallas Stars, returns to the city where he played his last bit of junior hockey with the Winnipeg Ice in 2020. Since then, he’s been in the Stars organization, mainly with the AHL’s Texas Stars, but was demoted to the ECHL’s Idaho Steelheads for nearly all of last season, where he recorded 24 points in 62 games.
- The defending Calder Cup champion Hershey Bears have signed forward Jimmy Huntington to an AHL contract for the 2023-24 season, according to a team release. Huntington, a native of Laval, Quebec, had a strong season with the Milwaukee Admirals in 2022-23 while under contract with the Nashville Predators, tallying 28 points (nine goals, 19 assists) in 51 games and leading the team in plus/minus with a career-best +13. In the playoffs, he contributed six points (two goals, four assists) in 15 games, helping the Admirals advance to the Western Conference Finals. Nashville opted not to issue Huntington a qualifying offer at the end of the season, making him an unrestricted free agent.
- Hunter Drew, a 24-year-old defenseman-turned-forward, has signed a one-year contract with the AHL’s Tucson Roadrunners, per the league. Last season, Drew played 60 games split between the San Diego Gulls and Rockford IceHogs after his NHL rights were traded from Anaheim to Chicago, contributing five goals and six assists for 11 points. Notably, he ranked fourth in the league with 149 penalty minutes. Throughout his professional career spanning four seasons, Drew has participated in 186 AHL games, recording 30 goals, 38 assists, and 345 penalty minutes. He has two NHL games to his name, both coming with the Ducks at the end of the 2021-22 season.
- The NHL-independent Chicago Wolves signed five more players today as they get closer to filling out their roster: forward Isaac Ratcliffe, defensemen Owen Headrick, Austin Strand and Mitchell Vande Sompel and goaltender Keith Kinkaid. Headrick, 25, led all ECHL defensemen last season with 54 points in 61 games while playing for the Idaho Steelheads. Kinkaid is the most notable signing here, carrying 169 NHL games. Kinkaid played in 27 AHL games split between the Providence Bruins and Colorado Eagles last year, posting a 12-10-4 record and one shutout. Ratcliffe, Strand, and Vande Sompel also bring a solid bit of pro experience to the Wolves, each carrying an NHL-drafted pedigree.
- After spending last year on an NHL contract with the Dallas Stars, forward Tanner Kero has signed an AHL contract with the Colorado Eagles for the upcoming season, per the league. Kero played exclusively with the AHL’s Texas Stars during the 2022-23 season, contributing 17 goals and 33 assists for 50 points in 69 games. With 343 career games played in the AHL and 134 in the NHL, Kero brings a lot of experience to the Eagles’ roster as he heads to the Avalanche organization.
This page will be updated throughout the day.
New York Islanders Sign Jakub Skarek
The New York Islanders today signed restricted free agent goaltender Jakub Skarek to a two-year, two-way contract, per a team release. Skarek’s new deal carries a $775K cap hit with the following breakdown, per the New York Post’s Ethan Sears:
2023-24: $775K NHL salary, $85K minors salary, $100K minimum guaranteed salary
2024-25: $775K NHL salary, $105K minors salary, $135K minimum guaranteed salary
After signing Oliver Wahlstrom to a deal equivalent to his qualifying offer yesterday, the Islanders have re-signed all of their restricted free agents this offseason.
Skarek, 23, sits third on the team’s goalie depth chart behind Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov. He’s expected to take on a slightly more significant role in the minors next season with the AHL’s Bridgeport Islanders, as they haven’t retained veteran netminder Cory Schneider, who split starts with Skarek last season, for 2023-24.
The 6-foot-4, 205-pound netminder has shown good flashes of play for Bridgeport, but he’s been inconsistent throughout his time there. He’s yet to record above a .900 save percentage in his four seasons in the minors.
Drafted by the Islanders in the third round of the 2018 NHL Draft, Skarek’s accumulated a 37-49-10 record, a 3.34 goals-against-average, a .893 save percentage and four shutouts in 103 career games with Bridgeport. Next season, he projects to be the team’s first call-up option if Sorokin or Valramov goes down with an injury or is otherwise unavailable.
Denis Malgin Signs Long-Term In Switzerland
Swiss forward Denis Malgin is departing the NHL for his home country for the second and likely final time. The 26-year-old unrestricted free agent signed a five-year deal with NL club ZSC Lions today, keeping him overseas through 2027-28 and through his age 31 season.
Malgin split last season with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche thanks to a mid-season trade. After recording career-highs with 13 goals and 65 games played last year, though, the Avalanche did not issue him a qualifying offer, making him a UFA.
Oddly enough, Malgin recently walked away from a multi-year commitment he signed with ZSC in 2021. After spending the 2020-21 campaign on loan to Swiss club Lausanne from the Maple Leafs, Malgin signed a four-year deal with ZSC that offseason and was one of the best players in the league in the first year of the deal, recording 52 points in 48 games. He walked away from the remaining three years to rejoin the Maple Leafs last summer, who retained his rights with a qualifying offer in 2021.
It seems unlikely he’d terminate with the same club twice, however, especially after one NHL comeback that, while successful, obviously didn’t translate to any offers on the open market that he was interested in. The fourth-round pick of the Florida Panthers in 2015 will return to ZSC on a team stacked with former NHL forwards such as Sven Andrighetto, Rudolfs Balcers, Jesper Froden, and Juho Lammikko, although he’s the biggest fish of the bunch.
If it is the end of the road for Malgin in the NHL, he wraps up his career with 41 goals, 40 assists, 81 points, and a -16 rating in 257 games split between the Panthers, Maple Leafs, and Avalanche.