Number Crunching: Shootouts
The shootout is a subject of much debate in the hockey world. For some, a short skills competition at the end of the game is a fine way to decide who earns the extra point. For others, another few minutes of the new 3-on-3 would be a dream. For other still, ties were never an issue, and they’d be fine with their inclusion once again.
Whichever side of the argument you find yourself, the simple fact is that they are in the NHL right now. Every team has to compete in them throughout the season for those all important extra points. This season only Dallas has yet to be involved in a shootout, while Philadelphia leads the way with nine games ending in one.
The old adage of “it all evens out in the end” almost proves true, as if you were to remove the shootout and just award both teams with a single point if the game was tied after overtime, not a single team would leapfrog another in the standings. It would, however, bring some teams into a tie (points-wise).
The Maple Leafs, with their awful 1-5 record would be tied with their rival Ottawa Senators, instead of chasing them by two points. They would also pull ahead of the Panthers, a team they’re tied with who have played in eight shootouts so far (second most in the league).
Suddenly the Metropolitan would be even tighter, with Washington and Columbus pulling even at the top. Philadelphia would fall into a tie with the Maple Leafs, Senators and Hurricanes for that last wildcard spot however, making things much more interesting.
In the west, where there haven’t been nearly as many shootouts would mostly see the bottom falling out of the standings. Vancouver would drop further back despite their recent run, and Arizona would be in a dog fight with Colorado for the worst team in the NHL; their 4-1 record in shootouts is the best thing about their season thus far.
For individual performances, Thomas Vanek ranks among the best in the league. He’s scored on all three of his attempts this season. Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov and Jakub Voracek all lead with four goals, though it’s taken each of them at least seven attempts. The worst is Nick Cousins, who has failed to score on each of his six attempts, though Kyle Okposo doesn’t fall far behind going 0-5. Despite leading the league in goals, Sidney Crosby is 0-2 this season in the shootout.
For goaltenders, Steve Mason has faced the most shots. He’s stopped 23 of 30 shooters, registering a pretty solid 76.7 save percentage. Braden Holtby has allowed the most, getting scored on an unbelievable 9 out of 14 times. There are six goaltenders who have stopped every shot they’ve faced, though they’ve all faced seven or fewer. Tuukka Rask is the man to beat having stopped 16 of 19 attempts. Robin Lehner is on the other side, allowing all six shooters he’s faced to score.
It’s an interesting thing, the shootout. Even players who have incredible success during the game find it difficult to score, while others who aren’t expected to be offensive forces find the back of the net with ease. For now, the shootout is a part of the game – winning there may be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.
Atlantic Notes: Beleskey, Leafs, St. Louis
Since being injured on December 6th, Matt Beleskey hasn’t skated with the team once – until now. Beleskey returned to practice today to the cheers of his teammates, though he still was in a non-contact sweater. According to Joe Haggerty of CSNNE, the 28-year old winger was skating alongside David Krejci and David Backes when he did get into some rushes; otherwise that spot went to Frank Vatrano.
Beleskey was originally given a six-week timeline, which would be up on Tuesday, which looks like a possibility for the Bruins forward. Late next week might be more realistic, with Friday against Chicago being a likely target.
- The Maple Leafs are back in action tonight after their bye week, and new backup Curtis McElhinney will wear #35 according to Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun. The Maple Leafs claimed McElhinney off waivers and are expected to give him his first start tomorrow against the Ottawa Senators.
- The Maple Leafs are playing tonight at Madison Square Garden, where the Rangers are honoring Steven McDonald, a former police officer who passed away Tuesday. He had been a big fan of the Rangers since he was shot in the line of duty 20 years ago, and the team honored him by wearing throwback sweaters in warm-up that had #104 on the back – the number of McDonald’s precinct. McDonald was paralyzed from the neck down in the shooting, but instead of despair he has spread a message of forgiveness since his injury. Adam Graves and Mark Messier were on hand to escort McDonald’s wife and son to center ice.
- In other pre-game ceremony news, the Tampa Bay Lightning retired Martin St. Louis‘ number tonight with former head coach John Tortorella on hand to speak (Torts’ Columbus Blue Jackets are in town to face the Lightning). “He is a man who has been told ‘no’ so many times in his career… I just have so much respect for him in how he did it.” Steven Stamkos also spoke about St. Louis, saying “He was, he still is, and he forever will be the heart and soul of this organization.”
Atlantic Notes: Jagr, Smith, Outdoor Game, Ennis
At the age of 44, Panthers right winger Jaromir Jagr isn’t lighting up the scoresheet like he did last season (where he posted 66 points) but interim head coach Tom Rowe is quite pleased with Jagr’s overall performance, he told Dave Caldwell of the New York Times:
“He’s done everything we’ve expected. He’s going to get his points — he’s going to end up with 40, 45, maybe 50 points this year. And the fact that he’s in the locker room every day and our young guys have a chance to watch him not just for games but practices as well is a great addition for our roster and a great addition for our young kids.”
Through 43 games this season, Jagr, who turns 45 next month, has just seven goals which puts him on pace for the lowest total of his career. While part of the reason for his struggles can be attributed to his age, the fact that the Panthers have been without Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad – among others – for extended periods of time hasn’t helped either as their injuries have thrust a lot more pressure and responsibility onto Jagr.
The veteran of 1,672 career NHL games is set to be an unrestricted free agent after the season and has suggested in the past that he’d like to try to play until he is 50. Last year, he opted to forego free agency and signed an extension with the Panthers. If Florida struggles in the coming weeks, they could potentially entertain the possibility of trading him as a rental player if no new contract has been agreed upon by then as well so his situation will be one to watch in the weeks ahead.
More from the Atlantic Division:
- The Senators and Zack Smith’s camp have engaged in preliminary discussions regarding a contract extension, writes Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen. Smith is currently making $2.3MM this year (with a cap hit just below $1.9MM) and is slated to be a UFA on July 1st. The center noted that there’s no rush to get a new deal done and that he feels there is mutual interest in finding a way to keep him around. Smith has 17 points (9-8-7) in 37 games this year and has a chance at surpassing his career high 36 points from last season.
- Still with Ottawa, progress continues to be made regarding a potential outdoor game to be held in December, reports Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun. While at one point there appeared to be a mid-January deadline to reach an agreement for this game, that deadline no longer is in place. While there were hopes that this game could be played at Parliament Hill, those talks fell through and as a result, Ottawa’s CFL stadium is expected to host the game which will feature the Senators and the Montreal Canadiens.
- Buffalo forward Tyler Ennis is getting closer to returning to the lineup after going through some tough skating drills at practice but will not be in the lineup tonight against Tampa Bay, notes Amy Moritz of the Buffalo News. Ennis has been out of the lineup since November 8th after undergoing surgery to repair a sports hernia and has just a goal and an assist in 12 games so far this season, certainly not the type of production they were hoping for from a player with a $4.6MM cap hit.
Frank Seravalli On Canadian Trade Deadlines
In his latest column, Frank Seravalli of TSN takes a look at the upcoming trade deadlines for each of the seven Canadian clubs. The entire piece is worth a read as he goes into detail on each team, but here are some highlights.
- The Montreal Canadiens are looking to acquire a center with size, and Arizona’s Martin Hanzal fits the bill perfectly. Even when injured #1 center Alex Galchenyuk comes back, Seravalli points to the decline of Tomas Plekanec as a concern and says the team must add size down the middle. He also mentions Matt Duchene as a different possibility, though doesn’t expect that to happen during the season.
- The Edmonton Oilers have been beaten on at least two waiver claims over the past few weeks (and possibly a third just yesterday) for Matt Nieto and Ty Rattie, and are still looking for a right-shooting winger (though Nieto is a lefty) to plug into their third line. A right-hand shot defenseman for the powerplay would be a bonus.
- The Maple Leafs could dangle either James van Riemsdyk or Kasperi Kapanen in trade, but are more likely to stay the course with both players at least during the season. JVR could still end up with the team long-term, and with Kapanen tearing up the AHL (and being best friends with William Nylander) he looks like a future core piece.
- Calgary may be in a pretty solid position now that Chad Johnson has taken the reins in net, but they need to shore up their blueline a bit for a real playoff run. A second-pairing player is all they need, but may have trouble parting with what he would cost.
- In Winnipeg, the team is likely to make minor deals if any at the deadline as they’re content with the development of their club. Seravalli points to Mathieu Perreault as a possible trade chip, as he thinks the team could be at risk of losing him this summer in the expansion draft. Drew Stafford is another name that could be moved out to make room for prospect Kyle Connor.
- The Ottawa Senators need scoring, and they need it bad. If the Maple Leafs weren’t in the same division, van Riemsdyk would be a likely target but they’ll have to look elsewhere for a new top line left winger. Unless of course Clarke MacArthur can come back close to 100% and add depth to their wings.
- The Vancouver Canucks remain a mystery to media and fans alike, and Seravalli isn’t sure what to expect from them. A scoring winger is an option to help now and down the road, but an improvement in draft picks is what the team really needs. Even though they may miss the playoffs again, they only own five picks at this summer’s entry draft (rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 7).
Atlantic Division Notes: Gallant, Ryan, Miller, McQuaid
The Florida Panthers decision to fire head coach Gerard Gallant earlier this season was met with harsh criticism in some circles of the hockey community. It was widely assumed the dismissal was a reflection of the new front office structure’s belief in analytics, something the former player and long time coach may not have been completely on board with, as opposed to Gallant’s coaching ability. Gallant is known as an old-school coach who values “intangibles” and other traits not ordinarily appreciated by analytically-driven front offices and it was assumed this generated a disconnect between management and the bench boss. However, according to Gallant his termination had little to do with his feelings on analytics and likely had more to do with his stubbornness, as Pierre LeBrun of ESPN wrote recently:
“I wasn’t fired because of analytics,” he continued. “I loved coaching the Florida Panthers and I’m a stubborn guy at times; maybe I said a little too much, maybe I gave my opinion a little bit too much. Maybe when they asked for my opinion, I have an honest opinion and sometimes it doesn’t help you. Maybe it wasn’t always what they wanted to hear. I don’t know where it went from there …”
Gallant, like many coaches, actually did utilize information provided to his staff by the team’s analysts and described analytics as “a tool.”
“For me, analytics is certainly part of coaching, but it’s not the whole thing. In my mind, if I take a job, analytics is part of it for sure, 25 to 30 percent, whatever percentage you want to put on it. It’s definitely a tool. If you get the right information, you’re happy with that. Every coach uses analytics. We all go over the same stuff.”
Of course it should be noted that while Gallant admitted to utilizing analytics, it can be inferred from his comments that it was done to assist with lineup decisions and on-ice strategies, leaving open the possibility that he didn’t necessarily agree with analytically-driven decisions made by the front office with regards to player acquisitions. It’s certainly possible Gallant voiced his displeasure over certain moves the front office made over the summer and that led in part to his dismissal.
Nevertheless, despite how it turned out in Florida, Gallant is respected within the industry and it’s likely he will have his choice of head coaching jobs this summer, assuming he isn’t offered and subsequently accepts a job prior to the offseason.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:
- Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun examines the Senators recent decision to scratch forward Bobby Ryan, and wonders what the “bigger picture” is with the player and Ottawa. Brennan points out that Ryan, a four-time 30-goal scorer, ranks 12th on the team in scoring and theorizes his lack of production may have served as justification for the benching. However, as the scribe points out, Ryan’s ice time, or rather the lack thereof, has likely led to the 29-year-old right winger’s lackluster output. Ryan currently ranks eighth among Senator forwards in overall ATOI (Average Time On Ice) and is seventh on the team in power play ice time. For his career, Ryan has registered just more than one-quarter of his points on the power play but this season has just one goal and three points on the man advantage. Brennan wonders why the Senators, who rank 22nd in the NHL in goals, would not find a way to get one of their most skilled players more ice time. Ultimately, as Brennan writes, the situation is one that bears watching for the rest of the season.
- The Boston Bruins, and in particular David Backes, were undoubtedly pleased to come away from St. Louis with a 5 – 3 win over the Blues. However the victory didn’t come without cost as the team lost right-shot blue liners Colin Miller and Adam McQuaid to injury during the game. As Jason Brough of Pro Hockey Talk writes, the losses of Miller and McQuaid forced the B’s to finish out the game with just four defenders. After the game, Claude Julien could provide no information other than the two were being evaluated by the team’s medical staff. Today the team announced that Miller is doubtful for tomorrow’s contest in Nashville. If he can’t go the Bruins could insert either John-Michael Liles or Joe Morrow into the lineup with the other available to draw in if McQuaid is ruled out.
Most Man-Games Missed At Midway Point
While the headlines follow teams missing multiple major contributors to injury – case in point the resilient 2016-17 Montreal Canadiens, whose injury issues have been well-documented – there’s an argument to be made that losing a greater amount of depth players is in fact more detrimental to a team’s success, even if it doesn’t garner as much attention. ESPN’s Matthew Coller examined the amount of ice time, in man-game minutes, lost this season due to injury and the resulting success or failure of the most injured and most healthy teams. Despite the story line, the Canadiens only rank tenth right now in missed minutes, perhaps providing some explanation to how they have maintained their winning ways despite being banged up. Other teams have not been so lucky.
Of the five most injured teams in the first half of 2016-17, four have drastically underachieved, even though you might not suspect that they have had such bad injury struggles. At the top of the list is the Detroit Red Wings, whose historic playoff streak is in extreme jeopardy as they sit in the basement of the Atlantic Division through 40 games. Two of their season’s biggest bright spots have also been two of their largest injury concerns, as 11 games were missed by leading scorer Thomas Vanek, signed to a one-year “show me” deal this summer, and resurgent goalie Jimmy Howard is on the shelf for the second time already and expected to be out until February. Add in a long, ongoing absence of Darren Helm and off-and-on issues with defenseman Brendan Smith among other injuries, and the Red Wings lead the league with 3,122 minutes missed. Few have pointed to injuries as the main reason for Detroit’s dismal showing, but there’s evidence to express that it may be the primary influence. Backing up the claim are the struggles of the Buffalo Sabres, Dallas Stars, and Winnipeg Jets as well, all of whom have suffered noteworthy injuries, but also an excess of depth injuries as well. These four teams are all performing below what was expected of them in 2016-17, and injuries may be the prime source of blame. Only the Edmonton Oilers have bucked the trend, as they have been able to survive numerous serious injuries to their defenseman and are having their best season in recent memory with the second most man-games missed in the entire league.
Aside from the Washington Capitals (who have been impossibly healthy with just 10 games and about 170 minutes missed) and San Jose Sharks at #1 and #2, two teams who seemingly have not had issues with major injuries in recent years, a lack of man-games missed can certainly make a case as a vital ingredient to the success of overachieving teams this season. Rounding out the top five are the Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Carolina Hurricanes, all of whom have lost less than 1,000 minutes to injury and all of whom are surely big surprises thus far in 2016-17. No one could have expected the Blue Jackets to hold the NHL’s best record at this point, nobody guessed that the Senators would be contenders in the Atlantic, and many picked the Hurricanes to be the worst team in the league. Even though Ottawa has seen Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone all miss time and Carolina just got Jordan Staal and Elias Lindholm back from injury, the overall roster-wide health is what has kept these teams afloat. All three rosters could easily be exposed by a string of long-term injuries, but they have been able to make it this far without encountering such loss and it has boosted them to the positions they are currently in.
Many teams have had recent success with top-heavy lineups containing a handful of stars and relative no-names as filler (read: Chicago Blackhawks), and there’s no reason to believe that doesn’t work. However, these injury trends seem to show that missing time as a whole due to injury instead of injuries to individual top players is what can derail a team. A team built with depth in mind can combat the loss of two, three, or four starters, but a top-heavy team can struggle to replace one star, nevertheless multiple full-time contributors. The man-games missed to success correlation is an interesting concept for team builders to follow and understand. It’s a risk-reward scenario, and several teams this season are showing the extremes of success and failure as a function of injury.
The Bobby Ryan Situation
Bobby Ryan was surprisingly a healthy scratch Saturday night for Ottawa in their 1 – 0 loss to Washington Saturday night. Even though he is having a down season with just seven goals through 32 games, Ryan’s absence was both unexpected and magnified by the Sens inability to find the back of the net against the Capitals. The gifted winger is a six-time 20+ goal scorer and has hit the 30-goal mark four times in his career. Ryan is the team’s highest paid player with an AAV of $7.25MM and is counted on by Ottawa to spearhead their offense.
So why was Ryan scratched last night? According to Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun, Senators head coach Guy Boucher simply stated that Ryan “wasn’t able to play.” The coach added that the two “had an issue to deal with and it’s dealt with.” When asked specifically if it was an issue with discipline, Boucher said, “there’s complex issues that don’t need to be said out here.”
Based on Boucher’s use of the word “complex,” it wouldn’t seem to indicate a one off disciplinary problem. It’s possible the benching has to do with Ryan’s on-ice struggles and mediocre offensive production. Ryan, with 14 points in 32 games, is on an 82-game pace of just 36 points; a figure that would represent the lowest, full-season total of his career not counting the 2012-13 campaign shortened by the lockout.
If that’s the case, one has to wonder if and when Ottawa will consider trying to move on from Ryan. The 29-year-old winger will have five years left to go after this season on his pact and has a NMC and a partial NTC which allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list. That fact combined with his recently tepid performance would seem to limit the number of teams that would express sincere interest, should Ottawa decide to investigate their options.
It should also be noted that in addition to the hefty contractual commitment, Ottawa invested additional resources by going out this summer and acquiring center Derick Brassard for the express purpose of using the two players together. It was thought that the left-handed pivot would have an easier time of passing the puck to the right-handed Ryan in a better shooting position. While the two have seen extensive five-on-five ice time together, they have yet to click and some of Brassard’s struggles – 17 points in 38 games a year after registering 58 in 80 – might be a result of failing to find chemistry with Ryan. The cost to acquire Brassard was a younger, cheaper and similarly talented center in Mika Zibanejad, along with a second-round draft choice.
It would seem that Ottawa’s best bet is to hang onto Ryan and do what they can to help him realize his potential. Ryan is still young enough to turn things around but is already in his fourth full campaign with Ottawa and has yet to come close to matching his production from 2008-09 through 2011-12 when he was in Anaheim and netted 31 or more goals each season. However, as he enters his 30’s it will become less likely than ever that the Senators will realize full value on their investment.
Snapshots: Avalanche, Ottawa Prospects, Rubtsov, Laine
With the likes of Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene making it into the rumor mill recently, GM Joe Sakic commented to Terry Frei of the Denver Post on what he’s looking to accomplish when it comes to any possible transactions:
“The only thing I’m going to do is what helps this franchise down the line. We’re not going to be looking to doing anything for just this year. When we talk trades with different teams, I’m looking at the future. That’s where we have to go. We have to get younger. We have some good young guys that hopefully can make the next step in the next year or two and that’s the direction we’re doing. We’re trying to build this up.”
With the idea of getting younger in mind, Sakic went on to note that forwards Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and 2016 first round pick Tyson Jost are all but untouchable in any deal.
As for Landeskog, Adrian Dater of Bleacher Report reports (Twitter link) that the Kings have strong interest in the Colorado captain. Earlier this week, he linked the Bruins as another team that wants to bring him in. While Boston has the cap space to do such a deal, the Kings do not and are currently in LTIR with Jonathan Quick on the shelf. Landeskog has a cap hit that’s slightly over $5.5MM which could potentially be a complicating factor for the Kings to get a deal done.
Elsewhere around the league:
- After a strong showing at the World Juniors where he was named the MVP, TSN’s Darren Dreger told WGR 550 in Buffalo that defenseman Thomas Chabot is now an untouchable player for the Senators. He suggested that Tampa Bay had inquired about his availability last season but that Sens were hesitant to move him then. Dreger also noted that Ottawa had tried to convince their other first round pick from the 2015 draft, Colin White, to turn pro this season but he wanted to stay in college for at least one more year. With that in mind, it’s likely that they will try to sway him to forego the rest of his eligibility once his college season comes to an end in the coming months.
- While there have been rumblings that Flyers 2016 first round pick German Rubtsov has left the KHL to join Chicoutimi of the QMJHL, GM Ron Hextall said that they have not heard conclusively whether he is leaving or not, notes Tim Panaccio of CSN Philly. He adds that Rubtsov, who had two more years left on his deal in Russia when he was drafted, had his agent, Mark Gandler, request that his KHL contract be terminated. Rubtsov is in Philly to have team doctors evaluate a nose injury sustained at the World Juniors; Hextall told reporters that a decision on whether or not it will require surgery will be determined in the next few days.
- Jets star rookie Patrik Laine was injured in the third period this afternoon on a collision with Sabres defenseman Jake McCabe. He was motionless on the ice for a couple of minutes and needed assistance to get off the ice. No further information is available at this time regarding his status – head coach Paul Maurice had no update after the game (via Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun).
NHL Teams With Prospects On Both USA and Canada
The United States and Canada face off in the World Junior Championships gold medal game tonight. Each team is loaded with NHL draft picks, and it is inevitable that some teams have players from both teams. While these players may be part of the same organization, there is no love lost when the two countries play each other. Below are all the NHL teams who have prospects on both Canada and USA tonight:
Arizona Coyotes
F Dylan Strome (CAN) vs. F Clayton Keller (USA)
Boston Bruins
D Jeremy Lauzon (CAN) vs. D Ryan Lingren* and D Charlie McAvoy (USA)
*Lingren was a late scratch before the gold-medal game
Calgary Flames
F Dillon Dube (CAN) vs. G Tyler Parsons and D Adam Fox (USA)
Nashville Predators
D Dante Fabbro (CAN) vs. F Patrick Harper (USA)
New Jersey Devils
F Michael McLeod and F Blake Speers (CAN) vs. F Joey Anderson (USA)
New York Islanders
F Matthew Barzal (CAN) vs. F Kieffer Bellows (USA)
Ottawa Senators
D Thomas Chabot (CAN) vs. F Colin White (USA)
Philadelphia Flyers
G Carter Hart and D Phillipe Myers* (CAN) vs. F Tanner Laczynski (USA)
*Myers was injured in the CAN vs. USA preliminary game and was unable to play in the gold-medal game.
Senators Looking To Trade For A Forward
Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion continues to be on the hunt to add a forward to the mix but has had no success finding a trade partner so far, reports Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun. With the team currently in their mandated five day break, Dorion is in Montreal at the World Junior Hockey Championships and has spoken with at least six of his counterparts around the league who are also in attendance. Dorion noted that he isn’t necessarily looking for a top six forward but rather just someone that can add some depth to Ottawa’s group:
“For me, the way our guys have fallen this year, we’ve had more injuries up front. If we could add a forward, it’s something I would definitely look at. It doesn’t have to specifically be a front-line guy, it might be a fourth-line guy, but adding a forward is something I’m more looking at than a defenceman right now.”
The Sens have been without left winger Clarke MacArthur all season due to a concussion and the team isn’t putting any firm timetable on his return though they are hopeful that will come late this month or in early February. Youngster Curtis Lazar also missed time early on with mononucleosis and has struggled since then while center Zack Smith is also out of the lineup though there’s a good chance he’ll return this weekend.
Dorion also commented on the trade market (or lack thereof) so far:
“As quiet as it was before Christmas, I think talks are heating up but it’s very difficult to make trades. Sometimes budget comes into it for other teams, sometimes it’s the number of contracts … So, working hard at it, I’m always looking to improve our team but there’s nothing imminent or at the forefront right now.”
While there has been plenty of discussion about the lack of cap space that many teams around the league have, the number of contracts each team has can also play a role in trades. Teams are allowed to have as many as 50 players under contract (excluding signed players that are eligible for a contract slide) and nine teams are currently within three of that amount. Many teams will look to keep at least a couple of slots open for the trade deadline while some will also want a spot or two for potential college free agent signings late in the season for players that sign and burn a year of their contract right away. The contract limit isn’t as difficult to work around as a hard salary cap but it’s certainly another factor in trade discussions.