Snapshots: Lupul, Hinostroza, Ryan
Joffrey Lupul is technically still under contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs, despite not suiting up for a game in two years. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet relays some of Lupul’s feelings from a recent podcast appearance, which indicates that though he might have some regrets on how his career ended, there isn’t a comeback in the works.
Lupul could technically sign a contract with an NHL club in the offseason as a free agent, but there doesn’t seem to be any indication he will. The 34-year old forward is instead concentrating on his life after hockey, even referring to himself as “retired.” Lupul’s career would end with 420 points in 701 games, including a career-high 67-point campaign in 2011-12 with the Maple Leafs.
- The Chicago Blackhawks will have a little less roster flexibility after tonight’s game as CapFriendly points out, as Vinnie Hinostroza is set to play in his 80th career game. That means Hinostroza will no longer be waiver-exempt, though he seems to have solidified his place in the lineup anyway. The 23-year old forward has 14 points in 22 games this season for the Blackhawks, and is another example of a smaller player finding success in today’s game. Selected in the sixth round partly due to his size, Hinostroza hasn’t stopped scoring at any level of hockey.
- If the Ottawa Senators had any plans to try and move Bobby Ryan and his huge contract they might have to wait until the offseason. The 30-year old forward will be out a minimum of three weeks according to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia, putting a return before the trade deadline in doubt. Ryan does have 20 points in 39 games this season as he’s battled through several injuries, but isn’t the same goal-scoring threat he once was. Owed another $30MM over the next four seasons, his contract has quickly become a huge hindrance on the Senators’ future plans.
Minor Transactions: 02/06/18
As always, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves around the league right here. Make sure to refresh throughout the day.
- According to the AHL transaction page, the Anaheim Ducks have recalled Nicolas Kerdiles from the minor leagues, though it is unclear what the corresponding move is to make room for him. Kerdiles has played in just two games for the Ducks this season, but has 19 points in 23 games for the AHL’s San Diego Gulls.
- The Ottawa Senators have recalled Max McCormick once again, as they deal with injuries to Bobby Ryan and Mark Stone. McCormick is still looking for his first NHL point this season, after being held scoreless in his first three games.
- After spending time as a healthy scratch recently, Michael Bournival will return to the Syracuse Crunch to get back into some game action. The Tampa Bay Lightning forward has played in only four NHL games this season, but is a key part of the AHL attack.
Deadline Primer: Ottawa Senators
With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? Next up are the Ottawa Senators.
It certainly hasn’t been the year that the Ottawa Senators imagined after a deep playoff run just a year ago. With a combination of veterans and young talent, including two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, it looked like the team was trending in a positive direction. Very little has gone right as the Senators are struggling in a weak Atlantic Division and while they haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the team has little to no chance. The team’s struggles have suddenly made the team sellers, but what are they willing to move?
Record
17-25-9, 7th in Atlantic Division
Deadline Status
Seller
Deadline Cap Space
$5.8MM – full-season cap hit, 0/3 retained salary transactions, 49/50 contracts per CapFriendly
Draft Picks
2018: OTT 1st (only if it’s a Top-10 pick), OTT 3rd, OTT 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 6th, OTT 7th, NYR 7th
2019: OTT 1st (unless Ottawa kept 2018 pick), OTT 2nd, OTT 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 6th, OTT 7th
Trade Chips
While there have been constant assurances from Ottawa general manager Pierre Dorion that the team will not trade Karlsson, especially before the trade deadline, there remains constant rumors and suggestions that teams might make major offers to pry the team’s captain away as rumors continue to surface that while he loves Ottawa, he doesn’t believe ownership will be able to deliver a winner. The team could get better much faster if they can get a great return on Karlsson.
However, assuming Karlsson stays put, the team has made numerous other players available, the most notable would be winger Mike Hoffman, who the team believes it should also be able to get a good return for. The 28-year-old center still has two more years on his contract after this one and has scored 92 goals over the past four seasons. Throw in the fact that centers are at a premium and the team could benefit greatly from a deal centering around Hoffman.
Five Players To Watch For: W Alexandre Burrows; C Mike Hoffman; D Erik Karlsson; D Johnny Oduya; C Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Team Needs
1) Unloading High-Priced Contracts: If they can find a taker for one of their two most bloated contracts in defenseman Dion Phaneuf or perhaps more importantly forward Bobby Ryan, that could fix a lot of the team’s problems. If the team could free up some cap space, then they can make a competitive offer in a year to extend Karlsson, who is looking to break the bank. However, Phaneuf still has three more years after this one at $7MM per year, while Ryan has four more years at $7.25MM. Neither would be particularly easy to unload without retaining a large chunk of their salaries.
2) Young experienced talent/Picks: While the team has a lot of youth, what the team really needs is to form a nucleus around center Matt Duchene, who they traded for during the season. The team has a lot of young talent, but what they need is young players who have already established themselves somewhat in the league and won’t be a liability early on as they try to transition to the NHL. As for picks, the team traded away their 2018 first-rounder in the Duchene trade, but (fortunately for them) it was top-10 protected which could give the Senators the chance to keep the pick for this year. However, if that’s the case, then the first-rounder will transfer to 2019. Replacing that lost first-rounder should be a key priority for a team that is struggling.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Stone Could Be Ready To Return Tuesday
- The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the Ottawa Senators might be getting back forward Mark Stone from injury soon, after having already missed six games due to a knee injury. Although not expected to play today against Montreal, Garrioch writes that Stone has resumed skating and is a possibility for Tuesday’s game against the New Jersey Devils. “I have to find out if it swelled up again,” Senators head coach Guy Boucher said Saturday. “There’s no structural problem waiting to heal. It’s the swelling. Once the swelling is gone, then he’s ready to play. I know the swelling was down big time. Mechanically he was able to move his leg a lot better, but certainly not enough to play (this weekend), and he hasn’t practised yet. He has to do real practices with the team, and then he’s ready to play. I’d love to get him back, but we’ve lived with this all year.”
Trade Candidate: Aaron Dell
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
The San Jose Sharks find themselves in tough position when it comes to their backup goaltender Aaron Dell. The 28-year-old has only been in the league for two years, but has had quite a bit of success, especially this year. With the struggles of starter Martin Jones, Dell has had to take on bigger resposibities and, at times, has outplayed the veteran. Now, with the trade deadline three weeks away, the team must decide what it plans to do with the netminder.
Contract
Dell is in the final year of a two-year, $1.225MM contract he signed with the Sharks in July of 2016. His AAV is $625K.
2017-18
Dell was brought in two years ago as the backup to Jones and has thrived in that role. However, since December Jones has struggled, which has forced Dell into a larger role this year and he has done quite a good job filling in more often for Jones, often being the preferred starter over Jones. His numbers have been impressive, but more importantly, he has led the team to a 12-4-3 record this year.
His name has come up in trade rumors and the Sharks aren’t likely going to be able to keep the backup next year as Dell may look to seek a starting role or an opportunity to split time evenly with another goalie. On top of that, Dell should receive a significant pay raise from the $625K he is currently making.
Season Stats
22 GP, 12-4-3 record, 2.51 GAA, .917 SV%, 2 SO
Potential Suitors
Dell’s potential suitors aren’t going to be much different than any goaltender on the market whether it be Petr Mrazek, Jimmy Howard or Robin Lehner. The New York Islanders are likely looking for a goaltender, while another legitimate possibility could be the Ottawa Senators, who are struggling at that position and might want a fresh face to compete for playing time with one of their veterans. A third option could just be a trade to a elite team like the Pittsburgh Penguins or Tampa Bay Lightning who might want a more dependable backup for the playoff run.
Likelihood of Trade
A weeks ago, it seemed extremely unlikely the Sharks might move Dell as he was the team’s best goaltender. However, Jones seems to have recovered from his struggles as he has played better in his last two games and looks to have coach Peter DeBoer’s confidence again. Dell, on the other hand, hasn’t been on the ice once since the break, suggesting the team wants to make sure that Jones can handle the load if they move Dell. While San Jose is in second place in the Pacific Division, they have a number of teams right behind them and the team might be fighting to make sure they reach the playoffs as opposed to thinking about winning a Stanley Cup this season.
With the team attempting to re-tool as their veterans like Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski are aging, the team might want to pick up an asset for Dell before they lose him. The team can ensure they get a veteran back in a deal to fill Dell’s shoes for the remainder of the season.
The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft
Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:
- First pick: 90 percent,
- Second pick: 60 percent
- Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
- Picks 5-20: 5 percent
- Picks 21-30: 2 percent
- Picks 31-60: 1 percent
- Picks 61+: .07 percent
While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.
However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.
The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.
Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.
Bobby Ryan Dealing With Hand Injury For Fourth Time This Season
- Bobby Ryan’s hand troubles have surfaced yet again. The Senators winger has been ruled out for the weekend with a hand injury and head coach Guy Boucher told reporters, including Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, that he is doubtful to play next week as well. This is Ryan’s fourth different hand injury already this season and his eighth since 2014-15. When he has been healthy, the veteran has been relatively productive with 20 points (7-13-20) in 39 games so far this season.
Minor Transactions: 01/31/18
On the last day of January, teams around the league will have to take stock of where they sit in the grand scheme of the NHL, and start to decide whether this is really the year they want to pursue a championship. Bubble clubs will either push their chips to the middle, or muck their cards quickly and prepare for next season’s hand. As they prepare, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves right here.
- The Boston Bruins have recalled Peter Cehlarik on an emergency basis, after the team was banged up a bit last night. David Backes would leave the game after taking a big hit from Nick Ritchie, while Anders Bjork suffered his own upper-body injury.
- Ottawa has sent Erik Burgdoerfer back to the minor leagues for the time being, which could mean a return to action for Johnny Oduya. Burgdoerfer had played just a single game for the Senators this season, and isn’t much more than a depth option at this point in his career. The team also sent Filip Chlapik back later in the day, likely meaning he’s healthy enough to get back on the ice.
- Jason Demers has been moved to injured reserve for the Arizona Coyotes, and the team has decided to call up Kyle Capobianco in his place. Capobianco made his NHL debut earlier this season and is an intriguing prospect with good offensive instincts.
- The St. Louis Blues have sent Oskar Sundqvist to the San Antonio Rampage, and re-assigned Jake Walman to the Binghamton Devils. Sundqvist’s assignment comes with some intrigue, as he would require waivers to be sent down unless it is on a conditioning stint.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets have sent Markus Hannikainen back to the minor leagues, now that Brandon Dubinsky is back to game action and Sonny Milano is getting closer to a return. Hannikainen has four points in 27 games for the Blue Jackets this season.
Final Standings Projections At The Mid-Way Point
It’s impossible to tell exactly how the remainder of the 2017-18 season will shake out, but with the NHL set to resume it’s unofficial second half of the season tomorrow, there’s no better time to look at the current state of the league. The final standings could look much like they do now or they could differ greatly, depending on whether or not the status quo shifts over the next few months. The trade deadline, rookie wall, and the health rigors of an 82-game season can all change the course of the campaign for many teams, but as of now, this is what the final standings and 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will look like:
Atlantic Division
- Tampa Bay Lightning – 119 points
- Boston Bruins – 115 points
- Toronto Maple Leafs – 98 points
- Detroit Red Wings – 79 points
- Montreal Canadiens – 77 points
- Florida Panthers – 77 points
- Ottawa Senators – 68 points
- Buffalo Sabres – 62 points
Metropolitan Division
- Washington Capitals – 105 points
- New Jersey Devils – 96 points
- Columbus Blue Jackets – 95 points
- Philadelphia Flyers – 94 points
- Pittsburgh Penguins – 92 points
- New York Islanders – 90 points
- New York Rangers – 90 points
- Carolina Hurricanes – 87 points
Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1A Tampa Bay vs. #2W Pittsburgh
#1M Washington vs. #1W Philadelphia
#2A Boston vs. #3A Toronto
#2M New Jersey vs. #3M Columbus
Central Division
- Nashville Predators – 113 points
- Winnipeg Jets – 108 points
- St. Louis Blues – 101 points
- Dallas Stars – 98 points
- Colorado Avalanche – 97 points
- Minnesota Wild – 95 points
- Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points
Pacific Division
- Vegas Golden Knights – 116 points
- San Jose Sharks – 101 points
- Calgary Flames – 97 points
- Los Angeles Kings – 95 points
- Anaheim Ducks – 93 points
- Edmonton Oilers – 79 points
- Vancouver Canucks – 74 points
- Arizona Coyotes – 54 points
Western Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1P Vegas vs. #2W Colorado
#1C Nashville vs. #1W Dallas
#2C Winnipeg vs. #3C St. Louis
#2P San Jose vs. #3P Calgary
The biggest takeaway from this current outlook? It won’t take 100 points to be a playoff team this year, but the vast number of mediocre teams opens the door for some last-minute playoff drama. The Islanders, Rangers, Wild, and Kings all project to be just one win outside of a playoff berth. These races could come down to the wire. It should be a fun second half.
Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?
Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.
However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:
Total Flexibility
Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.
Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo‘s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville‘s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.
Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.
Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.
Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.
New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames
New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.
Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.
Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson‘s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.
Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.
Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.
Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little‘s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.
Some Flexibility
Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.
Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.
Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.
Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.
Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn‘s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.
Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.
Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.
Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.
Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.
Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.
San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.
St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan‘s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.
Little Flexibility
Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.
Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford‘s contract expiring prior.
Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.
Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.
New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.