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Erik Karlsson On The Trade Block?

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Erik Karlsson’s recent comments combined with the Ottawa Senators’ ongoing struggles has created a rumor firestorm that isn’t likely to die down any time soon. The Senators are 1-8-1 in their last ten games and are sinking further and further out of playoff contention this season. Owner Eugene Melnyk is unsurprisingly sensitive right now and Karlsson stating that he would not take a discount to re-sign in Ottawa when his contract expires after next season has rubbed Melnyk the wrong way, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Nick Kypreos.

That does not mean that Karlsson is being traded right away or even that the Senators plan to trade him at all. However, steps are being taken to allow a potential Karlsson trade to happen. Sportsnet reports that the Senators have asked all of their players with modified no-trade clauses  – Karlsson, Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Zack Smith, Alexandre Burrows, Nate Thompson, Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf, and Johnny Oduya – to submit their lists of team they would or would not be traded to, per the terms of each individual clause. For Karlsson, he has a a ten-team no-trade list that will now be on record for the Senators and GM Pierre Dorion, should they choose to make a move.

In the opinion of Kypreos, a move should be made and it should be made soon. Karlsson’s market value, the team’s poor performance, and the Senator’s relatively low revenue and unwillingness to spend to the salary cap ceiling all make a Karlsson extension extremely unlikely. Rather than wait until next season for Karlsson to become just a rental player, Kypreos believes that a trade should be made by this summer and the earlier the better. It is hard to imagine Ottawa getting a fair return for arguably the best defenseman in the NHL, but they will surely get a better deal trading Karlsson this season instead of next.

Yet, the public relations train for the Senators will keep rolling. No one will make it known that Karlsson is trade bait until an actual deal is finalized. The team has enough issues that they don’t need their best player disgruntled and the locker room in disarray. Karlsson being traded is a real possibility, but you won’t hear it from Melnyk or anyone else in Ottawa any time soon.

Ottawa Senators Plummet While Trade Speculation Heats Up

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The Ottawa Senators were within a goal of the Stanley Cup Final last season. On the backs of heroic performances by Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson, a trapping, defensive team pushed the Pittsburgh Penguins to the brink of elimination before bowing out in double overtime of game seven. That had fans of the team excited about this season, and pushing for GM Pierre Dorion to add to a team that was close to the Stanley Cup.

As former NHL executive Frank Provenzano notes for The Athletic though, thinking your team is close to winning it all after one unexpected playoff run can be dangerous. Provenzano is among the first (of what is sure to be many) to suggest what had previously been unthinkable: perhaps it’s time to consider trading Karlsson.

Erik KarlssonJust a few weeks ago the Senators went out and added Matt Duchene, bringing in a former Olympian who was expected to kick-start their offense. The fact that he had just a year and a half left on his deal (coincidentally the same length as Karlsson) didn’t matter, as they were close enough that he could push them over the edge right away. They needed to move out Kyle Turris (and several other pieces) to do so, but he seemed unlikely to re-sign with the team after this season when he became an unrestricted free agent. The problem there is, as Craig Button screamed into the radio airwaves yesterday on TSN 1050, “they traded a better player for a lesser player.” Button believes Turris is better than Duchene right now, and the early returns would back him up.

Turris has 12 points in 13 games for the Nashville Predators since the deal, while Duchene has just two. The Senators meanwhile have gone 3-8-1 with Duchene in the lineup, including losing seven of their last eight in regulation. That has seen them tumble down in the standings, even as they play in arguably the weakest division in the NHL. As of Thursday, they find themselves ahead of only Buffalo in the Atlantic Division and tied with the Florida Panthers with 24 points. Not good enough for a team that expected to compete.

While the NHL season is far from over, and a rebound from the team is more than just possible, it may be time to start thinking about drastic changes to their core group. As noted above, Karlsson is only signed until the summer of 2019 and has made it clear that he’ll cost a boatload on the open market. Derick Brassard and Mike Hoffman are signed for one and two years respectively after this season, and are both no longer young players with years of improvement ahead of them. Mark Stone, the team’s best forward will hit restricted free agency this summer and should expect a big deal, but it’s not clear how long-term he’ll want to go with the club. Stone will turn 26 before the summer hits, and could get to unrestricted free agency himself with just a one-year deal.

It’s not over for the Senators just yet, but Provenzano’s article won’t be the first written about the possibility of a Karlsson trade. After July 1st hits, and an extension is possible, every passing day will fuel speculation on whether the team should move him before he hits the open market. As one of the most valuable players in the league, it’s not clear who would even have the guts to give up the kind of package Ottawa would need in return. But it’s an interesting possibility if the season continues to progress as it has so far for the Senators.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ottawa Senators’ Struggles Could Lead To More Movement

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The Ottawa Senators were facilitators of the biggest trade of the season so far, when they acquired Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche while sending out Kyle Turris and a package of picks and prospects. That deal certainly shook things up in the Canadian capital, but so far not for the better. The Senators have gone 3-7-1 with Duchene in the lineup, and the former Avalanche center has just two points during that stretch. The struggles may lead to some more changes, as Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports.

Cody CeciGarrioch singles out Cody Ceci as the team’s top trade asset, noting that the Avalanche did try to acquire him in a deal for Duchene before the Nashville Predators were involved. Ceci’s high value isn’t all that surprising given his relative youth and experience, but some would say that it’s not warranted. The 23-year old defenseman rates very poorly in possession statistics, but at least part of that is due to his role playing against some top competition. Still, with just three even strength points on the year Ceci is struggling just like the rest of the roster.

The problem with Ottawa looking to acquire more talent though is that they don’t operate as a cap ceiling team. Moving out money—including Andrew Hammond’s $1.35MM contract, that was already barely affecting the cap—was an important part of the Duchene deal, as the team can’t afford to pay out much more salary, especially if there are no playoff revenues on the way. That would suggest a player would be on his way out, but there are few obvious options.

Ceci is a restricted free agent at the end of the year, and will be expected a substantial raise from his current $2.8MM deal, but it’s obviously the Senators’ preference to keep him. Derick Brassard has just one more season at $5MM on the books, but would leave a gaping hole in the team’s center depth should he be moved. Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf are both too expensive for their performance, but likely have too much money left on their deals to really drum up any interest, and you’re not trading Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone or Erik Karlsson.

The next move for the Senators might have to come internally as Garrioch suggests, but they’ve already given Thomas Chabot a bump in responsibility and it hasn’t worked. Bringing up young forwards like Colin White, Filip Chlapik or Nick Paul could be next, but none look like game-changing presences at the moment. There’s no clear answer in Ottawa, but you can be sure GM Pierre Dorion is working to find one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Chabot's Minutes Suggest He's Here To Stay

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  • James Gordon of The Athletic writes that Ottawa Senators’ defenseman Thomas Chabot is here to stay in the NHL after his performance in the team’s 6-5 OT victory over the New York Islanders on Friday. It wasn’t just that Chabot put up a goal and two assists in the win, but it was the minutes that the 20-year-old got in the game, which was 15:23, a very high number from a coach in Guy Boucher who is known not to give minutes out to young players.

Evening Notes: Division Realignment, Roussel, Engelland, Chychrun

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With the Toronto Maple Leafs making stops in Calgary on Tuesday and Edmonton on Thursday, the rivalry between those Canadian Eastern and Western Conference matchups are off the charts. The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) wonders if it wouldn’t be a smart idea to change the conferences, especially down the road when the Quebec Nordiques return to the NHL.

The scribe’s suggestion is create an all-Canadian conference to replace the Central Division, moving all eight Canadian teams including the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers, Calgary Flames and Quebec City in the same division. Non-Canadian Central Division teams would be moved to either the Atlantic Division or the Pacific Division where the Canadian teams left holes.

There would be two key outcomes to this move, including increased revenue as rivalry matchups in 34 out of each team’s 82-game schedule will increase ratings and increase ticket sales. Currently, Canadian teams only play 16 games against in-country rivals. Playoffs would also promote multiple Canada-vs.-Canada rivalries and also would increase TV ratings.

Mirtle mentions some downsides to realigning the divison, which would include increased travel times for other teams such as the Minnesota Wild if they were moved to the Pacific Divison, but still feels the NHL should seriously look into that over the next few years.

  • The Dallas Stars will be without wing Antoine Roussel, who is expected to miss tonight’s game against the Chicago Blackhawks with the flu, according to coach Ken Hitchock. The coach added that Roussel is day-to-day regarding Sunday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche. Roussel has three goals and eight points in 25 games for Dallas.
  • Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen writes that Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Deryk Engelland remains day-to-day after suffering an injury to his hand in Thursday’s game against the Minnesota Wild. The 35-year-old blueliner missed last night’s game against the Winnipeg Jets. He has two goals and nine points in 24 games this season and has been a key piece to the expansion team’s successful run so far this year.
  • Craig Morgan of NHL.com tweets that Arizona Coyotes coach Rick Tocchet said that defenseman Jakob Chychrun might play Sunday against the Vegas Golden Knights. The 2016 first-round pick hasn’t played this year and is currently on a conditioning stint with the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL. He had knee surgery in August and would make a big addition the Coyotes defensive core. He played 68 games for Arizona last year as an 18-year-old.

Mark Borowiecki Not Progressing Well From Concussion

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While the Senators got some tough news yesterday on the injury front after it was revealed that defenseman Chris Wideman will undergo hamstring surgery on Monday that puts his availability for the rest of the season into question, that’s not the only bad news from their back end.  Head coach Guy Boucher told reporters, including Postmedia’s Ken Warren, that blueliner Mark Borowiecki continues to experience concussion symptoms despite being inactive.  As a result, it’s hard to imagine that he will be able to return to the lineup anytime soon either.  That gives youngsters like Thomas Chabot and Ben Harpur a chance to really solidify a spot on Ottawa’s back end in the weeks and months to come.

Senators Claim Chris DiDomenico Off Waivers From Tampa Bay

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Chris DiDomenico’s stint in Tampa Bay’s organization didn’t last long.  After being placed on waivers yesterday, the Senators have claimed the winger, per a team announcement (Twitter link).  This comes on the heels of the Lightning claiming him from Ottawa just a week ago.

[Related: Updated Senators Depth Chart from Roster Resource]

In his time with Tampa Bay, DiDomenico only played in the minors on a conditioning stint.  He suited up in three games with their AHL affiliate in Syracuse, scoring once during that span.

DiDomenico initially cleared waivers at the end of training camp but injuries up front gave him a chance to be recalled early on in the season to Ottawa. He initially made quite the impact as he recorded five points in his first five games. However, his ice time decreased after that and he picked up just a lone assist in his final seven games with the Sens before they placed him on waivers last weekend.

If the Senators were the only team to claim the 28-year-old, they will be eligible to send him down to their AHL affiliate in Belleville.  If, however, any other team behind them in the priority list put in a claim, then they would have to re-waive him in order to try to send him back down.

  • In other waiver news on Saturday, Oilers winger Iiro Pakarinen cleared waivers, per Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic (Twitter link).  The team announced via Twitter that he has been assigned to Bakersfield of the AHL.

The Case For Points Percentage

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It’s not often in sports that there is a need for something as trivial as a change in how standings are listed. Yet, that is the exact situation that the NHL faces. Ever since the league changed its schedule format a few years back so that every team played in every building every year, scheduling has become increasingly difficult and teams play out their seasons far differently from one another. The result, at any given point in the season, is a wide gap in games played between teams across the league – one that has stretched as high as 8 games between the teams with the most and fewest games played.

With a points-based standings system, a games played gap greatly misrepresents the success of teams relative to one another. While anyone can look and see that a 25-5-5 team is superior to a 22-10-11, the problem is that the standings say otherwise – both teams have 55 points – and the average layperson isn’t going to calculate a metric to differentiate the two when just casually looking at the standings. In the end, all teams play 82 games, but for the ease of fans and even some media members to better analyze how teams are performing in-season, and additional metric is needed.

That metric is points percentage, which of course is the amount of points a team has accrued (two-point wins and one-point OT/shoot-out losses) out of how many possible points they could have earned with a win in each game. Similar to winning percentage, the main standings metric for the MLB and traditionally listed on NFL and NBA standings as well, points percentage is an easy way to show how teams are doing relative to a .500 mark and, more importantly, relative to each other. The only problem is that, while very easy to calculate and very useful, no one in hockey is yet using this stat in their standard standings. NHL.com should, above everyone else, at least use points percentage in their standings, especially since it is a metric they have on hand, but they don’t. Instead, users can go to team stats, where it is a searchable statistic, and refine their search by conference and division to see relevant standings. Helpful, right? ESPN, TSN, Fox Sports, and CBS Sports are among the other major sports information outlets who have yet to adopt points percentage for their NHL standings, continuing to leave fans without complete information.

The one site hockey fans should use: the old stand-by Hockey Reference. The reliable stats site lists points percentage right alongside points in its 2017-18 standings, allowing for an easy look at the true performances of teams so far this season. Do yourself a favor, and take a quick look. Points percentage is topical right now, as a perfect case study is playing out in the Atlantic Division. Yes, the season is only a quarter of the way in, but the margin in games played is already skewing the view of the league’s weakest division:

Fans of the struggling Montreal Canadiens are ecstatic to be back in a playoff spot with 27 points in 27 games and fans of the Detroit Red Wings are proud of their club for sticking around with 25 points in 26 games, good enough for fifth place in the division. What about the fourth-place Boston Bruins? Well, the Bruins have 26 points… but in 23 games. Due to the gap in games played between the B’s and the Habs and Wings, it looks like Boston is just another team in the mix. Yet, in terms of points percentage they are a ways ahead. The Bruins are currently at .565, right up there with the New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Washington Capitals within the Eastern Conference. The Canadiens are at .500, no better than the Atlantic’s sixth-place squad, the Ottawa Senators, and well outside playoff contention at this point. The Red Wings are at just .481, a success rate much closer to the Florida Panthers than the Bruins.

The whole outlook of the Atlantic is skewed due to the games played gap and points percentage is a clear way to show accurate standings. It is also a straightforward metric to calculate and display. So why haven’t more platforms adopted it? It’s time for the NHL and other sports media outlets to help out hockey’s spectators and format their standings to actually show how the season is going.

Erik Karlsson Unwilling To Take Hometown Discount

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Erik Karlsson’s contract doesn’t expire until the end of the 2018-19 season and he isn’t even eligible to sign an extension yet, but when you’re the best defenseman in the NHL, everyone is focused on your future and (potential) availability. So, it’s no surprise that a question of his future was posed at practice Thursday. However, the surprise, at least for many Senators fans, was his answer, as retold by the Ottawa Citizen’s Ken Warren:

“When I go to market, I’m going to get what I’m worth, and it’s going to be no less, no matter where I’m going… That’s the business part of it. That’s the way every player has been treated ever since this league has started, and I think the players have been a little bit on the other side of things when it comes to negotiations. I think it’s time to realize that when we go to the table, it’s business on both parts, not just (owners)… “I like it here, I’m comfortable here, I’ve been here my whole career… but at the end of the day, when it comes down to it, if it’s not the right fit and it’s not going to work out business-wise, then you’re going to have to look elsewhere because that’s what (owners) are going to do, as well.”

Karlsson isn’t incorrect – it is far more frequent in all pro sports to see a star athlete take a hometown discount to stay with a team than it is for a team executive to offer a premium contract to retain such an athlete. Karlsson clearly recognizes that he is one of the best in the game and is deserving of perhaps a record-setting contract, one that should at least erase P.K. Subban’s $9MM mark as the highest AAV ever handed to a defenseman. A Norris-caliber defenseman hitting the open market at the age of 28 is beyond rare and Karlsson is ready to cash in. However, the big question – and one that could plague the team for the next year plus – is whether the Ottawa Senators will be the club that ponies up for Karlsson’s massive promotion.

 

Snapshots: Hurricanes, Senators, Fletcher

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Carolina Hurricanes owner Peter Karmanos has been considering selling the majority of his share of the team for some time, and today John Shannon of Sportsnet confirmed with team President Don Waddell that they are currently in talks with billionaire Thomas Dundon. Chuck Greenberg had previously been linked as a potential buyer, but now it appears Dundon is the prime candidate.

Shannon confirmed that the deal would be for a controlling interest of the Hurricanes but that relocation would not be part of it. While that obviously doesn’t guarantee a long-term future for Carolina, it at least should calm Hurricanes fans for the time being. Dundon is from Texas, though not from the Houston area that has become the hot city in relocation and expansion speculation around the league.

  • Another team that has been surrounded by rumors of a potential sale is the Ottawa Senators, and though he can’t definitively deny it won’t eventually happen, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports owner Eugene Melnyk will be not selling anytime soon. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman recently said that a downtown arena is “vitally important” to the Senators’ long-term future in Ottawa, something Melnyk has been trying to convince the city of for years. Currently in discussions over the Lebreton Flats area near downtown Ottawa, a new building would certainly be a step in the right direction for the franchise.
  • This morning, The Athletic published a piece by former NHL executive Frank Provenzano about general managers working in the final year of the contract and the dangers that can pose for a franchise. Now, after quite a bit of digging, Michael Russo reports that Chuck Fletcher of the Minnesota Wild is doing just that. Fletcher was quite active at last year’s deadline to try and push the Wild over the edge in the playoffs, only to see his team bow out in the second round once again. Now, stuck near the bottom of the standings in the Western Conference a “lame duck” GM could be pushed do to something drastic. There’s no reason to believe Fletcher would make such a move, but be sure to keep an eye on the Minnesota situation if their struggles continue.

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