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Senators Rumors

Senators Shopping Craig Anderson

June 22, 2018 at 9:42 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

The Ottawa Senators are looking to move goaltender Craig Anderson, TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports (Twitter link).  Chris Stevenson of The Athletic adds (via Twitter) that the netminder has requested to be dealt.  However, no trade is believed to be imminent.

Anderson is coming off of a tough season that saw him post a .898 SV% and a 3.32 GAA, his worst numbers since the 2005-06 campaign when he was with Chicago.  However, he is just one year removed from putting up a .926 SV% and a 2.28 GAA so the Sens are certainly hoping that his 2017-18 performance isn’t necessarily an indicator of things to come.  Over the past several years, Anderson has alternated good years with not-so-good ones.

Back in September, Ottawa inked the 37-year-old to a two-year, $9.5MM contract extension that is set to kick in next month.  The deal is front-loaded with a $5.5MM salary for next season and $4MM for 2019-20.  It also contains a ten team no-trade list.

GM Pierre Dorion may have some difficulties finding a deal in the short-term.  Teams that are focused on longer-term starting help are focused on Washington RFA Philipp Grubauer while those that are looking for a short-term upgrade may prefer to wait until next weekend where they can try to sign one of Carter Hutton, Jaroslav Halak, Jonathan Bernier, Kari Lehtonen, and Anton Khudobin who are all set to become unrestricted free agents.  Former Senator Robin Lehner is also set to hit the open market as he is not expected to receive a qualifying offer next week.  With all of those players being available without having to give up anything for their rights, Ottawa may have to wait to see if there are any teams left standing after the free agent shuffle to see if there is a potential taker for Anderson.

Newsstand| Ottawa Senators Craig Anderson

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Ottawa Senators Still Expected To Use Fourth-Overall Pick

June 20, 2018 at 11:38 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 14 Comments

Since trading Mike Hoffman earlier this week and reportedly re-entering talks on captain Erik Karlsson, speculation has swirled up again around the Ottawa Senators and the fourth-overall pick. The Senators of course owe either this year or next year’s first-round pick to the Colorado Avalanche for their acquisition of Matt Duchene earlier this year, and without Hoffman and Karlsson in the lineup many believe they’d be better to try for the first-overall selection a year from now. That pick could potentially be Jack Hughes, who is being regarded as a potential franchise-changing player at center, something the team may not be able to get at #4 this season.

That’s not to say they can’t get an excellent player where they sit this year, with more reports coming out that Filip Zadina may drop past the Montreal Canadiens and fall into Ottawa’s lap. Zadina is an excellent offensive prospect, capable of scoring from nearly anywhere on the ice. The team is also not guaranteed to finish anywhere near the bottom of the league next season, and even if they do could drop out of the top-3 with three bad results in the draft lottery. With that knowledge, the team is still planning on using the pick this season according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, meaning Colorado will acquire their 2019 first-round pick. Things can change right up until the moment they make the selection, meaning the Avalanche need to be ready, but all signs are pointing to GM Pierre Dorion selecting a player this Friday.

The Senators are in rough shape at the moment, dealing with off-ice incidents revolving around players and management, all while trying to prepare for an upcoming contract negotiation with Karlsson. The superstar defenseman has just one year left on his current contract, and is eligible for an extension on July 1st. While Dorion has been clear with the fact that he will make Karlsson’s camp an offer, there is growing speculation around whether the captain will even want to stay with the team long-term. If they can’t come to an agreement quickly, the Senators will have to see what the market is for him in trade, or risk losing him for nothing at the end of what could be another season outside of the playoff picture.

Zadina, Brady Tkachuk or whoever the team selects at fourth-overall will surely be an excellent player in the league and that isn’t something to throw away so easily. Even though Hughes is an attractive idea, the fact is that even the last place team has a relatively low chance of selecting first-overall. There’s also still a core of players like Mark Stone, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Thomas Chabot that will do everything they can to keep Ottawa out of the basement of the league, which could result in a much later draft pick in 2019. It’s not an easy situation for the Senators, but Dorion clearly believed that Duchene would help the team reach the playoffs again and the whole argument would be moot. Now he’s got an extremely difficult decision on his hands, one that could play out poorly no matter what he does.

Colorado Avalanche| Ottawa Senators Filip Zadina

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Vegas Golden Knights Revisiting Talks On Erik Karlsson

June 19, 2018 at 11:04 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 8 Comments

The Ottawa Senators made waves this morning when they traded Mike Hoffman to the San Jose Sharks, but may not be done stealing the headlines this week. Frank Seravalli of TSN reports that all eyes are now on captain Erik Karlsson, and that talks have started up again with the Vegas Golden Knights who came close to acquiring the superstar defenseman at the trade deadline:

There are lots of teams around the NHL that have perked up and believe that Erik Karlsson could be on the move at some point this week as the NHL Awards wrap up in Vegas on Wednesday night and teams head to Dallas for the NHL Draft. The team to watch continues to be the Vegas Golden Knights, the team that went down to the wire with the Ottawa Senators at 2:45pm before the 3pm trade deadline back in February, nearly pulling off a blockbuster deal to bring the two-time Norris trophy winner to the Stanley Cup finalist Golden Knights. It seems like those two teams have revisited those talks, they’ve heated up. To be sure Pierre Dorion’s phone is ringing.

The Golden Knights apparently came as close as anyone during the trade deadline, with a deal falling apart because the team refused to include top prospect Cody Glass. Glass, selected sixth overall last summer, had 102 points in the WHL this season and looks like a future top-two center for the Knights and potential star. While Karlsson is obviously worthy of a huge package, the team likely wasn’t thrilled with the idea of trading for him only to see him hit free agency in the summer of 2019. Now, as July 1st approaches the Senators can potentially get Karlsson to agree to a long-term extension with the acquiring team, increasing his price tag even further.

It’s not just Vegas that will be after the 28-year old defenseman if he’s truly on the block. Karlsson is the type of talent that could turn a playoff bubble team into a contender, even despite his relatively down 2017-18 season. After offseason ankle surgery Karlsson started the year playing at a level not indicative of his talent, but turned it around and ended up with 62 points by season’s end. That came with just nine goals though, a relatively low total for Karlsson who has five times scored at least 16 in a season.

There will be plenty of interest from around the league, and the Senators could potentially land a huge package of picks and prospects before Friday’s draft. That said, the team is still in the troublesome situation of having to give Colorado either their pick this year—the fourth-overall selection and a potential shot at Filip Zadina—or next year, which could end up near the very top of the draft given their exodus of talent.

Ottawa Senators| Vegas Golden Knights Erik Karlsson

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Pittsburgh Re-Signs Tobias Lindberg

June 19, 2018 at 9:15 am CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

Tuesday: The team has officially announced the signing, confirming that it is a two-way deal worth $650K at the NHL level.

Monday: It’s easy to forget that Derick Brassard was not the only player acquired by the Pittsburgh Penguins in the three-team blockbuster that brought him over from the Ottawa Senators through the Vegas Golden Knights. The Penguins also added minor league forward Tobias Lindberg as compensation for sending an extra draft pick to Vegas. However, Lindberg remained with the Knights’ AHL affiliate, the Chicago Wolves, for the remainder of the season and has yet to really be associated with the Penguins organization.

That is, until now. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports that the Penguins have signed Lindberg to a one-year, two-way extension worth the league minimum  $650K at the NHL level. In terms of adding the affordable depth and upside that GM Jim Rutherford is looking for, this deal is right on track. Lindberg, 22, already has six NHL games and 164 AHL games under his belt in three pro seasons. A fourth-round pick of the Ottawa Senators in 2013 out of Djurgardens of the Swedish Hockey League, Lindberg has experience playing – and producing – at several different levels already.

His next challenge will be fighting for his place in the Penguins organizational pecking order when he joins the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins next season. It would be a stretch to assume that Linberg would earn a spot in Pittsburgh out of camp, especially with fellow youngsters like Daniel Sprong and Zach Aston-Reese having been promised increased roles next year, but Lindberg should be among the group of primary call-up candidates at the AHL level. Not only did Lindberg get a taste of the NHL with six games with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2016-17, but he also has experience playing on both wings and playing both scoring and checking roles. That versatility is extremely valuable as a minor league depth option. Rutherford has been honest that some of the Penguins’ restricted free agents may not be re-signed this off-season, so Lindberg’s speedy extension would seem to indicate that the team envisions a role for him moving forward.

AHL| Jim Rutherford| Ottawa Senators| Pittsburgh Penguins| Toronto Maple Leafs| Vegas Golden Knights Daniel Sprong| Derick Brassard| Swedish Hockey League| Zach Aston-Reese

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Mike Hoffman Traded To San Jose Sharks

June 19, 2018 at 7:58 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 22 Comments

9:20am: The Sharks have flipped Hoffman to the Florida Panthers. For more information check the latest story.

7:55am: The Ottawa Senators have traded Mike Hoffman, Cody Donaghy and a 2020 fifth-round pick to the San Jose Sharks in exchange for Mikkel Boedker, Julius Bergman and a 2020 sixth-round selection. This comes after weeks of trade speculation surrounding Hoffman, following an incident between his fiancee, and team captain Erik Karlsson and his wife. Senators GM Pierre Dorion released a statement regarding the trade, that seems to point towards a rift in the locker room:

Today’s trade showcases our determination to strengthen the future of the team by improving chemistry, leadership and character in the locker room and on the ice. We are confident it is a step in the right direction for the long-term success of this organization. 

Hoffman, 28, is about as consistent a goal scorer as you can find in the league right now. After four straight seasons with at least 22 goals, Hoffman will look to establish even better numbers in San Jose playing with what has quickly become an impressive forward group. After trading for and re-signing Evander Kane, and now adding Hoffman to the mix, the Sharks have used poor off-ice reputations to acquire top end talent on the cheap. With Joe Thornton expected to re-sign for a relatively low price to remain in San Jose, the team has three legitimate scoring lines that can do damage at even strength.

While Hoffman brings an upgrade in goal scoring, Boedker may fit into Ottawa’s system with ease. The two-way speedster can help the team utilize Guy Boucher’s defensive style, bringing an added level of responsibility to the forward group. Still, it’s not clear where the goals will come from in Ottawa, especially given the team is still considering a trade of Karlsson. Just this morning, Darren Dreger of TSN tweeted that the team is listening on both Karlsson and Zack Smith as they attempt a full rebuild. If they do pull a full overhaul on the roster, there may be another trade coming for Boedker, who is owed $3MM in each of the next two years (with a $4MM cap hit).

Even with Boedker’s $4MM cap hit, the Senators will save some money the next two years. Hoffman is signed for two seasons with a cap hit just under $5.2MM, a number that the Sharks can easily afford. San Jose headed into this offseason with a huge amount of cap space, and even with the Kane extension should be able to bring back all of their restricted free agents and Thornton.

For Ottawa, the simple fact is that they needed to move Hoffman before the season began. The off-ice problems had become too much, and they did well to at least acquire an asset in Boedker and a prospect in Bergman. The latter may be the key to the deal, as a puck-moving defenseman who will add another lottery ticket to the pile for the Senators. Make no mistake, Bergman isn’t an elite prospect ready to make a huge impact at the NHL level, but should play for the Senators at some point at least in a limited role. The second-round pick recorded 20 points in 65 games for the San Jose Barracuda this season, his third in the minor leagues since being drafted in 2014. Bergman has one year remaining on his entry-level contract, meaning he’ll be a restricted free agent in 2019.

It’s tough to think that the Senators will be better after this deal, and should they blow up the entire program and try to rebuild it could get even worse. The tough part about any scorched earth rebuild though is the fact that the Colorado Avalanche own their first-round pick from either this year (fourth overall) or next. The idea of giving up a real shot at first overall and Jack Hughes next season is a frightening one for a team trying to turn itself around, though it may be the only rational decision. Giving up the fourth pick this season is still an extremely difficult decision, especially if they believe Filip Zadina will still be available.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Newsstand| Ottawa Senators| Pierre Dorion| San Jose Sharks| Transactions Erik Karlsson| Mike Hoffman| Mikkel Boedker

22 comments

Snapshots: Offer Sheets, Wideman, Bergevin

June 16, 2018 at 8:51 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

The NHL has restricted free agency for a reason, but instead of it being a way for talent-deprived teams to sign away top young players, offers sheets are ignored and never used. The last offer sheet signed was five years ago when Ryan O’Reilly signed an offer sheet with the Calgary Flames in 2013 and there have only been eight offer sheets signed in the salary cap era.

After all, with a weak unrestricted free agent class this season, teams would benefit if they had an equally good chance at competing for restricted free agents. This year’s restricted free agent class is quite impressive. Led by Vegas’ William Karlsson, Ottawa’s Mark Stone, Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba and Toronto’s William Nylander, teams should be making a move on some of these players.

Sportsnet’s Sean McIndoe writes the main reason for the lack of offer sheets comes down to the compensation that is returned if a team allows a team to leave. The scribe writes that the compensation is not good enough and forces teams to sign their restricted free agents regardless of their cap situation. He points out that the compensation looks impressive when dealing with a player that makes more that $10.15MM per year. A team that signs a restricted free agent in that bracket would receive four first-round picks. Unfortunately, few players are in that salary bracket unless your name is Connor McDavid. If he was a restricted free agent, any team would give up four first-rounders for McDavid.

If the NHL wants to improve on restricted free agency, then they must double the compensation so teams really need to think about whether they would rather have that player or let him go and take the compensation package. Unfortunately right now, no team wants the compensation package.

  • Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun writes that unrestricted free agent Chris Wideman said that he wants to return to the Ottawa Senators next season, but isn’t sure he’s in the team’s plans for next season. The 28-year-old defenseman said he talked to general manager Pierre Dorion recently and was told that the organization had other matters to attend to before addressing whether they plan to bring him back. Wideman missed most of the season last year after having surgery in December to repair a torn hamstring after Pittsburgh’s Evgeni Malkin fell on him on Nov. 16. Used as a depth defenseman for his three years in Ottawa, he averaged a career-low 11:33 of ATOI in 16 NHL contests, despite putting up eight points in that time period.
  • Stu Cowan of The Montreal Gazette writes that general manager Marc Bergevin said today that the team is willing to trade the No. 3 pick in the NHL Entry Draft. “I’ll listen, I’m open,” Bergevin said. “I’ve told teams if they want to make me an offer, I’ll look at it. But again, sometimes teams don’t want to move up. As much as a team wants to move back or move up, if there’s no takers or buyers then you just sit where you’re at.”

Free Agency| Marc Bergevin| Ottawa Senators| Snapshots Connor McDavid| Evgeni Malkin| Jacob Trouba| Mark Stone| NHL Entry Draft| Offer sheets

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Buyout Candidate: Marian Gaborik

June 16, 2018 at 11:18 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Technically speaking, Senators winger Marian Gaborik was the centerpiece of the return the Senators received when they dealt defenseman Dion Phaneuf to the Kings back in February.  Of course, he wasn’t a typical centerpiece in that he was acquired strictly for financial reasons, not because they actually wanted to acquire him.  As a result, even though they just got him, he could very well be sent packing by Ottawa over the next two weeks.

It has been a rather drastic fall from grace for the 36-year-old in recent seasons.  After he played a key role in the Kings winning the Stanley Cup in 2014, Los Angeles signed him to a front-loaded seven-year contract, one that looked bad right at the start.

Since then, Gaborik has yet to play in 70 games in a single season and this past year spent a lot of time as a healthy scratch although he did fare a little better with Ottawa after the trade.  However, a part-time player that puts up around 20 points a year isn’t worth $4.875MM on the cap let alone for three more years which is how much time is left on his contract.

Because of the way the deal is structured, the sum of the combined cap hits over the next six years will actually exceed the salary that he’s owed over that time.  That would be a concern for some teams but the budget-conscious Senators aren’t one of those.  From the minute this trade was done, it looked like the sole motivation was getting out of as much of Phaneuf’s longer-termed contract as possible and that Gaborik was merely a sunk cost to accomplish that.  A buyout would represent lowering that sunk cost by just over $3.6MM (one-third of his remaining salary) of real money which to them matters a lot.

In the case of a lot of players who are buyout candidates, the idea of trading the player with the maximum 50% retention is an outside possibility.  While Ottawa will certainly explore that idea, it’s not exactly a palatable one because Gaborik has three years left.  There won’t be enough demand to justify trading for him at half price and carrying him for that long when they can just wait for the buyout and try to sign him to a one-year, incentive-laden deal a few weeks from now.  (As he’s 36, he is eligible to have incentives in his contract as long as he signs for a single season.)

Theoretically, Ottawa could wait a year to see if Gaborik could build on his late showing and have a good full season to see if there is any trade potential down the road and if not, buy him out in the summer of 2019.  However, because 2018-19 is the highest remaining salary of the remaining three years of the contract, their financial savings will wind up being about $1.5MM less if they went that route.  Realistically, they can find someone in free agency that can put up the 21 points that Gaborik has averaged over the past three years for that price or less so they may as well bite the bullet now if the plan is to buy him out before his contract expires.

Assuming this is the route that gets taken which seems inevitable at this point, it will be quite the precipitous drop for a player who was once regarded as one of the premier scorers in the league.  It will also look less than ideal for the Senators who will wind up effectively paying more than $11MM (Gaborik’s buyout cost in terms of real dollars plus what they are covering on Phaneuf’s contract as part of the trade) for the blueliner to not play for them.  That’s not a pretty picture no matter how one tries to paint it.

Ottawa Senators Marian Gaborik

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Ottawa Senators Suspend Assistant General Manager Randy Lee

June 15, 2018 at 4:55 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 4 Comments

The Ottawa Senators have suspended Assistant General Manager Randy Lee indefinitely, pending the conclusion of his current legal case. Lee was charged with harassment while in the United States for the NHL Draft Combine, and currently has his next court appearance scheduled for July 6th. The Senators GM Pierre Dorion issued a statement that included a condemnation of harassment in any form:

As our hockey club’s initial statement made clear, our Hockey Team – and our organization as a whole – will always hold our leaders, coaching staff, players and employees to the highest standards of behaviour.

Harassment in any form is unacceptable, whether it occurs inside or outside the work place. As a result, and with all the care and caution required in such cases, we have spent the past two weeks listening carefully to, and consulting with our community, our fan base and our partners to understand their expectations on the matter.

Lee’s court date was originally set for June 22rd, the first day of the draft and an important date in regards to his duties for the hockey club. Though that appearance has now been pushed back, the team has taken the additional step of suspending Lee, meaning he won’t be able to attend or help in anyway for the upcoming draft. Obviously there is no decision yet on Lee’s future with the club, as the Senators will allow the legal process to play out before making any decisions.

The 56-year old Lee has been with the Senators for 23 years, working as a video coach in 1995 and working his way up the organization. He has been accused of inappropriately touching and making lewd comments toward a hotel shuttle driver, and was arrested and charged with second-degree harassment on June 1st, to which he pleaded not guilty.

Legal| Ottawa Senators

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Latest On The Ottawa Senators & Mike Hoffman

June 15, 2018 at 2:39 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 8 Comments

As a general policy, PHR does not comment or report on a player’s off-ice situations unless they have a significant impact on their status with a team or around the league. This site is meant to wade through the unfounded accusations or hearsay and bring you only the most accurate transaction-related information and reporting from around the NHL and professional hockey. In this case, we decided not to cover a story on Mike Hoffman and Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators because any effect it may have had on their status with the team was unclear. Now, as reports start coming from respected hockey sources on how the market has changed for an impending trade, we feel the need to release something on the situation. The original report came from Shaamini Yogaretnam the Ottawa Citizen, and subsequent response from Hoffman and his fiancée has just been published by Bruce Garrioch of the same publication.

Mike Hoffman has been rumored to be on the trade block for months, and the latest situation surrounding him, his fiancée and Erik Karlsson has only raised expectations of his movement. At one point, many believed that Hoffman was guaranteed to be traded before the upcoming NHL Entry Draft, something which is now not so clear. There’s no doubt that he will likely be moved still, but the situation has increased the difficulty of any deal.

In an updated version of the first report, the Ottawa Citizen spoke with Hoffman’s agent Robert Hooper. In his comments, he made it very clear that he believed there was no place in Ottawa for Hoffman any longer as long as Karlsson remained with the team.

What we’ve indicated to Pierre [Dorion, team GM] is that, and let’s call a spade a spade, it would be very difficult for both parties — both Erik and Mike as well as the wives and the fiancées — to co-exist in the same wives’ room and the same dressing room. 

In my 22 years in this business I don’t believe that I’ve ever come across a situation like this. This is an exceptionally unique situation and one that’s very unfortunate. Hopefully it can get resolved as quickly as possible.

This isn’t something we talked about with Pierre just today. We’ve been aware of this situation since the end of the season,

Insiders all around the league are speculating that Hoffman’s value has plummeted though, and could make it a much tougher sell for the Senators. Frank Seravalli of TSN reports that at least two GMs wouldn’t be willing to tough the situation until it is resolved, and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet believes it’s now a situation that could hurt Pierre Dorion’s reputation around the league. Friedman believes that the team dropped their asking price for Hoffman before the story broke, and that some other teams may see that as “dirty poker.”

If you make this deal without knowing [about the situation]—and I think there might be some teams mad at the agents too, but the agents are trying to protect their clients and Dorion is trying to protect his investment—whatever the case is I think there were some teams just mad at the overall situation: ’Oh, you tried to pull a fast one on us eh? So what else about some of your guys are you not telling us?’ It’s a brutal situation.

In a video attached to Hoffman’s latest response, Garrioch claims that he believed the team was originally looking for a 2019 first-round pick and an established NHL roster player. Now, he believes that the team will have to settle for a prospect and first-round pick instead, and lists the Dallas Stars, Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild and Buffalo Sabres as potential candidates for a trade. Whether that comes to be in the next few days is still unclear.

The situation obviously also has an effect on Karlsson’s future, though the team has known about the situation since well before the original report. Even Hoffman admits that he spoke to his captain about it before the season was over, but that things weren’t resolved. Karlsson has always maintained that he loves the city of Ottawa and the team, though rumblings of a potential trade persist. If the team can’t get their superstar defenseman signed this summer to a long-term extension, the belief is they will look to move him and start a true rebuild.

Hoffman, 28, is under contract for two more seasons at a reasonable cap hit of just under $5.2MM. His production has been excellent through his four full seasons in the NHL, and he’s coming off a 22-goal, 56-point campaign. It’s obvious that many teams would enjoy adding the player to their lineup, but it seems clear that as long as this situation hangs over his head there will be a smaller market for Dorion to work with.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ottawa Senators| Pierre Dorion Elliotte Friedman| Erik Karlsson| Mike Hoffman

8 comments

Avalanche Prepared To Pick Fourth If Senators Fold

June 13, 2018 at 7:27 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 11 Comments

The first fireworks of the upcoming NHL Draft may show up at pick #4. When the Ottawa Senators acquired Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche, part of the substantial package was a top-ten protected 2018 first-round pick. The terms of the deal afforded the Senators a choice between trading this year’s pick or next year’s pick to Colorado if the pick landed within the top ten spots. Finishing the season with the second-worst record in the league, Ottawa was obviously locked in to the top ten. Even after bad luck dropped them to fourth overall in the NHL Draft Lottery, GM Pierre Dorion confirmed that they would hold on to the pick this year and defer to the 2019 first-rounder.

However, that was back in April and things change. It seems more likely than ever that Erik Karlsson and/or Mike Hoffman will be traded away from Ottawa this off-season and that doesn’t bode well for a Duchene extension either. There also continue to be frustrations over the management of owner Eugene Melnyk and the fiscal future of the organization. Ottawa seems far from a free agent destination right now and no closer to turning around one of the worst records in the NHL. The initial Stanley Cup odds for next season reflect this, as the Senators at 100/1 odds are alone in last place. It’s understandable for public relations purposes that the Sens keep this year’s #4, both to add an exciting new prospect and to all but confirm to fans that the outlook for next season is better this season. It may not be the smart move though.

There is a trio of top prospects in the draft this year: defenseman Rasmus Dahlin and forwards Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina. After that, there is no consensus on the next-best player. In fact, the fourth overall pick more or less marks the beginning of a lesser tier of prospects; not exactly a power position in 2018. Next year, the Senators are almost certainly going to miss the playoffs and will be a lottery team with a chance to land in the top three with a lucky draw. According to odds makers, they are also the favorite to finish 31st, which would give them the best odds at the first overall pick – highly-touted franchise center Jack Hughes – and would mean that they could fall no farther than fourth again. There is risk in giving up a pick as high as #4 this year, but there is also substantial risk in not giving it away, blowing up the roster, and simply hoping for a better finish next year. The pain that the organization and the fans would feel about losing #1 after another brutal season would be far worse than giving up a non-consensus top player at #4 this year. The mounting pressure of that very real possibility could force the Senators to give in and surrender the 2018 pick.

The Avalanche know this and are remaining vigilant. The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers caught up with Colorado Director of Scouting Alan Hepple, who says the team knows what direction they would go in if they wind up with #4 this year after all. Per Chambers, the Senators can wait all the way until they are on the clock to make the pick to instead complete the trade this year. Hepple doesn’t think that will be the case, but the Avs are prepared in case it is. They certainly wouldn’t mind the spot, as the team nabbed defensive phenom Cale Makar in that same draft slot last year and would be happy to make a repeat performance. With their own pick at #16, Hepple says that the team will simply take the best player available, regardless of position, but at #4 they have identified a more pressing organizational need, as they did with the UMass puck-mover Makar last year.

If the first three picks go as expected and Ottawa isn’t thrilled by the next-best name on their draft board, they could crumble under the pressure of the potential repercussions: losing a higher pick next year. It could pay off or it could be a mistake in hindsight; there is no way to tell with a lot riding on the decision. However, if they do, Colorado is ready to jump in. It’s not the most likely outcome, but it remains a possibility, and an intriguing one, as draft day approaches.

Colorado Avalanche| Joe Sakic| Ottawa Senators| Pierre Dorion| Prospects Andrei Svechnikov| Cale Makar| Erik Karlsson| Filip Zadina| Matt Duchene| Mike Hoffman| NHL Entry Draft| Rasmus Dahlin

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