Atlantic Notes: Pacioretty, Luongo, Boedker
If Montreal Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty is being genuine about wanting to stay in Montreal for the rest of his career, the team has a lot of thinking to do whether the 29-year-old winger is worth a long-term deal. Sure, he had posted five straight 30-goal seasons (if you don’t include the strike-shortened 2012-13 year), but after a 16-goal campaign last season and the fact that he’ll be 30 when he starts his new contract, there are a lot of variables that the Canadiens need to consider after the team handed goaltender Carey Price an eight-year, $84MM extension a year ago that’s already starting to look questionable and it hasn’t even started yet.
One obvious way for things to work out perfectly would be if Pacioretty can rebound and put up another banner season. Another 30-goal performance would undoubtedly make the 2017-18 season look like a fluke and would make it a whole lot easier to sign him to a new contract, according to Montreal Gazette’s Pat Hickey. However, the scribe also points out that he must improve on his mental game as well as Pacioretty has a tendency to be streaky and get down on himself when he’s not producing. It’s likely, if the veteran captain can’t make that adjustment, he’ll be heading out of town just like Andrei Markov, Alexander Radulov and P.K. Subban did in past years.
- NHL.com’s Kevin Woodley writes that veteran goaltender Roberto Luongo is focusing more on his health this year after two injury-plagued campaigns that has kept him out of 89 games. The 39-year-old goaltender, who will turn 40 during the season, still has four years remaining on the 12-year, $64MM deal he signed with Vancouver in 2009. He has spent more than 90 minutes a day of extra time with goaltending coach Robb Tallas, focusing on his surgically repaired hip from 2016 and the groin tear he sustained last season. “Back in the day, I used to show up half an hour before I went on the ice and just throw the gear on, but these are the things I need to do be ready, to be loose and make sure everything is working properly,” Luongo said. “The main thing is I understand what I need to do as far as preparation to be where I need to be to be healthy. After my hip surgery, once I started feeling good, I kind of neglected it. You think you are back to normal, but you are not. You always have to keep on it to make sure you keep it strong and loose.” While he’s missed quite a bit of time, Luongo’s numbers haven’t suffered as he posted a .929 save percentage and three shutouts in 35 appearances.
- Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Ottawa Senators are considering using newly acquired winger Mikkel Boedker as a first-line option alongside Mark Stone and Matt Duchene next season. Boedker, who was acquired as part of the Mike Hoffman trade with the San Jose Sharks, has posted up-and down numbers the last several years, including a 10-goal season in 2016-17 and then 15-goal season a year ago. The scribe writes that putting Boedker on the first line will be a dangerous combination as Boedker isn’t a great two-way player and historically is a player that thrives on the power play, but rarely during even strength.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Ottawa Senators
Current Cap Hit: $73,463,333 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Thomas Chabot (two years, $863K)
F Brady Tkachuk (three years, $925K)
F Colin White (one year, $925K)
D Christian Wolanin (one year, $925K)
Potential Bonuses:
Chabot: $360K
Tkachuk: $2.5MM
White: $850K
Total: $3.71MM
Tkachuk decided last month to forego the remainder of his college commitment to turn pro now. While he could ultimately wind up in the AHL or OHL (London has his rights), it’s likely that they will give him a good look at training camp to see if he can make an impact right away. White’s first full professional season had some ups and downs as he had difficulties staying healthy while he didn’t make as much of an impact in the minors as some would have hoped. However, with the team firmly in rebuilding mode, there’s a good chance he’ll land a regular spot in the lineup but he will likely have to work his way up from the bottom which means he likely won’t hit most of his bonuses.
Chabot is their top defenseman of the future (and depending on what happens with the Erik Karlsson trade talks, potentially the present as well). His rookie season saw him struggle at times but he took some steps forward in his development. Given how important he’s going to be for them, it wouldn’t be surprising if Ottawa looks to try to sign him to an early extension next summer before he can really command top dollar. Wolanin signed last season following the completion of his college campaign and acquitted himself well for the most part. He could benefit from more time in the minors but given their depth on the back end, he could wind up doing all of his development with the big club.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Paul Carey ($700K, UFA)
D Cody Ceci ($4.3MM, RFA)
F Matt Duchene ($6MM, UFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Erik Karlsson ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Max McCormick ($650K, UFA)
D Magnus Paajarvi ($900K, UFA)
F Tom Pyatt ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Mark Stone ($7.35MM, UFA)
D Chris Wideman ($1MM, UFA)
It’s a little scary to be an Ottawa fan with the number of prominent players they have on expiring deals. Stone is one of the top two-way players in the league and eclipsed the point per game mark for the first time last season. He’s a quality top line player now and should command north of $8MM on the open market if he has a comparable performance – are the Sens ready to make that type of commitment? If not, he becomes a strong candidate to be dealt. Duchene didn’t produce quite as intended after they paid an exceptional premium to acquire him midway through last season. With the demand for centers on the market, he will likely garner a bit of a raise as well. While he’s a local player, will he want to commit to a long-term rebuilding process? If he isn’t, then he also becomes a trade candidate.
Among the other forwards set to hit the open market, Dzingel is somewhat notable as well. He quietly put up a 23-goal season in 2017-18 and quality secondary scorers can get rewarded nicely in free agency. He could potentially double his current AAV with another season of 20 or more tallies. Pyatt’s case is likely tied to Guy Boucher’s fate behind the bench as the winger has followed his head coach a few times over the years but even if he sticks around, it should be around his current price. Paajarvi did enough after being claimed from St. Louis to warrant another look but he’s a depth player that shouldn’t be looking at a big raise next summer while Carey and McCormick will battle for the end-of-roster positions.
Then there’s Karlsson’s case. While he wasn’t at his best compared to previous seasons, he was still among the top point producing defensemen in the league while logging nearly 27 minutes a night of ice time. He’s still a legitimate number one defender and with Drew Doughty and Oliver Ekman-Larsson signing extensions already, he now stands alone as the top blueliner for the 2019 free agent class. It has been reported that he turned down an extension offer close to what Doughty received (eight years, $88MM) so it’s hard to envision the two sides working out a new contract for him to stick around. He has been part of plenty of trade speculation already and that’s only going to intensify in the weeks and months to come if something isn’t worked out by training camp.
Ceci surprised a surprisingly high arbitration award this summer, likely in large part due to him playing top pairing minutes at over 23 per game. Given the shape of their back end, that’s likely to be the case again in 2018-19 which will only bolster his arbitration case next offseason. With that in mind, he has to at least be considered as a non-tender candidate next summer if he struggles this upcoming season. Wideman got off to a strong start offensively last year before tearing his hamstring that took him out for the rest of the year. He’ll get a chance to lock down a regular role with some power play time which will certainly boost his free agency case a year from now.
Two Years Remaining
G Craig Anderson ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Mikkel Boedker ($4MM, UFA)
D Mark Borowiecki ($1.2MM, UFA)
G Mike Condon ($2.4MM, UFA)
F Clarke MacArthur ($4.65MM, UFA)
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($3.1MM, UFA)
The Senators picked up Boedker as part of the Mike Hoffman trade with the Sharks. While he struggled for the most part in San Jose, he’s only two years removed from a 51-point season and should have more opportunities to produce in Ottawa. If that doesn’t work out, his salary is down to $3MM for each of the remaining two years which is notable for a lower-budget team. Pageau is a capable third line center that’s above average at the faceoff dot. While this deal looked a bit pricey in the past, it’s certainly fair value now. MacArthur continues to deal with concussion troubles and isn’t likely to play again.
Borowiecki is capable of playing on the third pairing but even with their defensive depth eroding, he’s not likely going to move up the depth chart. Even so, a regular third pairing player making $1.2MM isn’t bad value.
Anderson signed this deal early last season when the team was thought to be more of a contender (and he was coming off of a good year). Now, this is a bit of an overpayment for someone whose numbers make him look like more of a platoon player than a true starter. Condon also struggled last season but he has shown himself to be capable of handling a larger workload than most backups and with the increase in backup salaries the last couple of years, his deal isn’t particularly outlandish.
NHL Rookie Tournaments Set For Early September
8/31: The Philadelphia Flyers and New York Islanders have joined to fray, as their rookie camps will clash in prospects game on September 12th at the Isles’ practice facility, the teams announced. This leaves only the Florida Panthers without a competition for their rookies in the coming weeks.
8/24: Before team training camps open up for veterans, the rookies get some work in each year with various rookie tournaments and exhibition games taking place around the continent. This is where you can catch your favorite team:
- The most well-known preseason rookie tournament is obviously the Traverse City NHL Prospect Tournament. The annual tournament hosted by the Detroit Red Wings is in its 20th year of existence. The format consists of two four-team “divisions” who play a round-robin tournament with the winner of each group earning a berth in the championship game. Featured this year are the Red Wings, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, New York Rangers, and St. Louis Blues. The games run from September 7th to September 11th.
- Buffalo is again set to host the Sabres’ Prospect Challenge Tournament. Running from September 7th to 10th, it is a single group round robin tournament with the Boston Bruins, New Jersey Devils, and Pittsburgh Penguins joining the Sabres on their home ice. This will be the first game action for top overall pick and preseason Calder Trophy favorite Rasmus Dahlin.
- Across the border, the three eastern Canadian teams are set to square off in Laval, Quebec, the home of the Montreal Canadiens’ AHL affiliate, the Laval Rocket. The Habs announced a set of three games featuring themselves, the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the Ottawa Senators on September 7th, 8th, and 9th.
- On the other side of the country, a previous rookie tournament has been split in half. The NHL Young Stars Tournament, held in Penticton, British Columbia, will now contain only the Winnipeg Jets and Vancouver Canucks, as well as a pair of collegiate teams in a three-day series of games from September 7th to 9th. The Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames chose not to participate this year and will instead face-off in one singular game in Red Deer, Alberta on September 12th.
- The Vegas Golden Knights are set to host the first of a revolving tournament among U.S.-based Western Conference teams. Nicknamed the Vegas Rookie Faceoff, Sin City will be the location of this year’s tournament which also features the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, Colorado Avalanche, Los Angeles Kings, and San Jose Sharks. It will be a three-day, nine-game series taking place on September 8th, 9th, and 11th. The tournament is expected to head to Anaheim next year.
- Finally, the NHL’s southeastern squads will square off in Estero, Florida at the home of the ECHL’s Florida Everblades. The Prospect Showcase will be four days of games between the Nashville Predators, Tampa Bay Lightning, and defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals, taking place from September 8th to 11th.
For all updates on rookie tournament rosters, check in with Roster Resource and their running tracker of roster announcements.
Craig Anderson Content To Stay With Senators
It wasn’t long ago that Craig Anderson had requested a trade out of Ottawa and the Senators were looking to oblige him. The well-liked and respected goalie was coming off of a difficult season that saw him post a .898 SV% and a 3.32 GAA as the starter for the second-worst team in the NHL last year. He also had to keep his family in mind, as his wife – who had finally beaten her publicized battle with cancer – and kids still reside in Florida. Fast forward about eight weeks and the veteran goalie has changed his tune.
Whether it be due changes to those personal circumstances, a change of mind about his role in Ottawa, or simply due to lack of interest in the trade market, it seems that Anderson is okay with sticking around with the Senators. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun writes that Anderson is ready for a “fresh start” with the team. The 37-year-old still has two years remaining on his contract and now says he wants to stay in Ottawa and make the best of what are likely the twilight years of his career. Anderson was quoted as saying “Ottawa. I’ve been there for eight years now, and that’s my home. I’ve got no interest in going anywhere else”.
Ironically, Anderson mentioned that he was “too old for drama” when talking about wanting to make things right with the Senators and their fans. No team in the league, or perhaps all of sports, has been more embroiled in drama of late than Ottawa. Although the situation surrounding Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman, and their significant others – a situation that Anderson claims he was unaware of – has been resolved with Hoffman’s trade, there is still the matter of problematic owner Eugene Melnyk and a dwindling fan base who may watch their team finish dead last this season and potentially give away the first overall pick. The Senators are not short on controversy, and while Anderson might be talking about his own contentious relationship with the team due to his inconsistent pay and perceived poor value, he is not out of the woods yet when it comes to dealing with drama.
Poll: Who Will Win The Atlantic Division?
We’re just over a month away from the 2018-19 NHL season, and players are hitting the ice with teammates to start forming chemistry. All over the league there are individual workouts underway, and rookie tournament rosters being announced. The excitement for the upcoming season is starting to bubble up to the surface, and even the smallest NHL news has fans in a frenzy.
Today, Bovada released their over/under numbers for each team’s point totals and there are some interesting results. Though these aren’t to be taken exactly as predictions for the upcoming season—since betting odds also take into account popularity trends and other factors—fans of the Tampa Bay Lightning should still be extremely satisfied to see their club at the very top with an over/under of 107.5 points. The Lightning are expected to be Stanley Cup contenders once again in 2018-19, and have brought back nearly their entire roster.
The odds though tell a story of competition for the Lightning, as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins also find themselves with 100+ point expectations. All three clubs reside in the Atlantic Division and will have to battle each other for the right to go to the Stanley Cup Finals. Not to be forgotten in the Atlantic are the Florida Panthers, who are expected to contend for the playoffs and the Buffalo Sabres who should be much improved.
Who do you think will come out on top of the Atlantic Division in the regular season? Can Toronto take that next step and topple their rivals in Boston? Will Aleksander Barkov and the Panthers take a big leap and contend for the Stanley Cup? Can Rasmus Dahlin turn around a Buffalo blue line? Cast your vote below and explain how you think the season will play out in the comments!
[Mobile users click here to vote]
Erik Karlsson Refutes Report About Canadian Cities
Yesterday, several reports surfaced that Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson did not want to sign an extension in a Canadian city and preferred to have his next deal take him to the United States. Today, the superstar defenseman wanted to clear the air and reached out to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman to refute the report. Karlsson told Friedman that the report saying he is “unwilling to sign long-term with a Canadian team” is false, but wouldn’t go any further. Karlsson has been extremely quiet on the whole situation this summer, waiting until training camp to address the media.
Teams looking to acquire Karlsson from the Senators this offseason are likely asking about a extension, given that the 28-year old is heading into the final season of his current contract and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in July of 2019. If Karlsson was truly against signing anywhere in Canada it would limit Senators GM Pierre Dorion’s options, though there’s no guarantee at this point that the defenseman is willing to sign anywhere. With Drew Doughty, Ryan Ellis, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Ryan McDonagh all off the market after signing extensions this summer, Karlsson could find himself as the lone big ticket defensemen available in free agency.
That idea of picking your destination must be tempting, especially when you then know your new team isn’t wasting a pile of future assets to acquire you. Signing in free agency leaves the roster of a new team relatively in tact, something that no one would be able to say after trading for Karlsson. The Senators are surely looking for an enormous package in return for the face of their franchise, including roster pieces and prospects. An agreement like that is obviously affected by whether or not Karlsson is willing to sign long-term, or if Bobby Ryan is indeed strapped to him as a salary dump for the Senators.
For all the speculation that has surrounded Karlsson the last few months, the Senators captain has never said an ill word about the city of Ottawa. He and his wife live in the city and have strong ties to the community, and will likely continue to do so regardless of where he plays in 2018-19. While it doesn’t seem like a long-term extension is coming with the Senators after negotiations halted earlier this offseason, Karlsson has made it clear that he is not staunchly against playing in Canada.
The Vancouver Canucks were the Canadian team most recently linked to the Karlsson trade talks, though almost immediately came out to say they were not actively involved. Other teams that could certainly use the right-handed offensive defenseman include the Edmonton Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens, though it’s not clear if any have even approached the Senators about a potential trade. Karlsson does also hold a 10-team no-trade list, meaning he has at least some control over who the Senators talk to.
Latest On Erik Karlsson Trade Rumors
After Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet threw a match into the puddle of gasoline that is an Erik Karlsson trade rumor yesterday, speculation has ran wild about where the Ottawa Senators captain will start the season. Friedman was on NHL Network recently, and reiterated that he believes the Senators are ready to move on.
A few years ago Dany Heatley showed up on the first day of camp with the Senators, and the Senators were like “can we fix this?” and they realized they couldn’t. They made the [Heatley] trade right away with San Jose. I think they’ve just decided they don’t want to carry [the Karlsson situation] into the season if they can avoid it.
Karlsson has been in the news for some time, given that the Senators haven’t been able to reach an extension with their superstar defenseman. The 28-year old is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019, leave the team with little choice but to trade him for future assets if he’s not willing to sign long-term with the club. There had been talk about Karlsson potentially discussing an extension with interested teams, which would obviously increase the value of the return for the Senators, but now there may be a hitch in those talks. Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest tweets that Karlsson does not want to sign an extension with a Canadian team, which could potentially take teams like the Vancouver Canucks—who were mentioned by Friedman yesterday, but quickly denied their involvement—out of the running.
There’s no guarantee that Karlsson wants to sign an extension with anyone at present, given that he could be the big fish on the open market next summer. Now that Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan Ellis and Ryan McDonagh have all signed long-term deals, Karlsson projects to be the one real star defenseman available in free agency. At that point he could essentially choose his destination, as one would have to believe that almost the entire league would express some interest in him as a UFA.
For now, we’ll have to wait and see who rises as the front runner for a Karlsson trade and whether a Canadian team can wiggle their way into extension talks. The star defenseman has always spoken highly of his love for the city of Ottawa, but it doesn’t appear at this point like he’ll be spending the next portion of his career there.
Jim Benning States That The Canucks Are Not Involved In Erik Karlsson Talks
While the Canucks were a team that was surprisingly linked to Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson earlier this morning, GM Jim Benning told Sportsnet’s John Shannon (Twitter link) that the team is not involved in discussions for the Ottawa blueliner. Given that Vancouver appears to be heading into at least a soft rebuild, giving up considerable assets for the pending unrestricted free agent would seem to be somewhat counterproductive. However, with more than $9MM in cap room at the moment (per CapFriendly), Vancouver would make some sense as a potential fit to get involved as a third party facilitator if someone needs to clear some short-term cap room or retain on Karlsson’s deal before flipping him, similar to what Vegas did with Derick Brassard last season.
Erik Karlsson Trade Talks Picking Up
After the last few weeks have brought little in terms of trade speculation around the NHL, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has sparked the fire again surrounding Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators. Friedman tweets that trade talks involving the superstar defenseman have picked up recently, with Western Conference destinations—potentially including the Vancouver Canucks—as the most likely. West teams like the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars had previously been linked to Karlsson, though it’s unclear if they’re included in the recent discussions.
For Vancouver the acquisition of Karlsson would seem unlikely, given that the team is still rebuilding and there is no guarantee that the Senators defenseman would be open to an extension. Iain MacIntyre of Sportsnet tweets that Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson are all completely off the table for the Canucks, making it hard to imagine a package strong enough to beat any other contender for Karlsson’s services. Interestingly MacIntyre does not mention top prospect Olli Juolevi, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he would be available.
There are obviously dozens of other teams in the NHL who would be interested in Karlsson, though many of them won’t be able to afford an extension that could push towards Drew Doughty‘s eight-year $88MM contract. Ottawa would likely receive the biggest return from a team that can immediately extend Karlsson, but that could also dramatically reduce their trading partners. The Golden Knights have the prospect capital and cap space to fit a star like Karlsson in, and the Colorado Avalanche have a trade chip that no one else in the league can match. That’s the Senators own first-round pick this season, acquired in the Matt Duchene trade from last season. After Ottawa chose to keep their 2018 pick and select Brady Tkachuk, they had to give up the 2019 pick and a potential opportunity at top prospect Jack Hughes. With the Senators expected to struggle this season—especially if Karlsson departs—the Avalanche could easily be holding a top-three pick in their pocket. For what it’s worth, Adrian Dater of BSN Denver isn’t hearing any connection with the Avalanche and Karlsson.
The Tampa Bay Lightning were the other team strongly linked to Karlsson in the past, and it’s unclear if they still pose a threat to acquire the defenseman. That would require Tampa Bay moving out other salary, but would make them an absolute powerhouse in the Eastern Conference and the favorite for a Stanley Cup Finals appearance. All of the other teams in the Atlantic Division will be hoping that the Senators’ captain heads out west and signs a long-term contract to stay out of their way.
Randy Lee Resigns As Assistant General Manager Of Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators dramatic offseason continues, as Randy Lee has now resigned his post as Assistant General Manager and General Manager of the Belleville Senators. Lee was involved in a legal matter earlier this summer during a trip to Buffalo for the NHL Scouting Combine, though Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports that his hearing has now been postponed to September 13th.
Lee, a member of the Senators organization for nearly two decades, was suspended indefinitely by the team on June 15th following his arrest in Buffalo for harassment in late May. The team will begin an immediate search for his replacement, though they have already been operating without his input for more than a month. At the time of the suspension, the team had this to say about the matter:
As our hockey club’s initial statement made clear, our Hockey Team – and our organization as a whole – will always hold our leaders, coaching staff, players and employees to the highest standards of behaviour.
Harassment in any form is unacceptable, whether it occurs inside or outside the work place. As a result, and with all the care and caution required in such cases, we have spent the past two weeks listening carefully to, and consulting with our community, our fan base and our partners to understand their expectations on the matter.
Lee issued his own statement on his resignation, indicating that he believes the club needed to find a replacement for him while his legal proceedings are ongoing:
My suspension has given me more time to spend with my loved ones than ever before. For the past 23 years, my family has taken a back seat to my career. My focus is now on putting them first. At the same time, I have to think about my obligations to the hockey team. They need an Assistant General Manager who can focus completely on the coming season. Until this matter is behind me, however, I’m not in a position to do that. For this reason–in consultation with the Ottawa Senators and my family–I have chose to resign as Assistant General Manager of the Ottawa Senators and General Manager of the Belleville Senators.
It’s been a long offseason for Ottawa, with Lee’s arrest not the only public controversy the team has gone through. From locker room issues including a feud between Mike Hoffman and Erik Karlsson that led to a trade of the former, to the three key players who are now scheduled for unrestricted free agency in 2019 without any extensions in sight, there has been little to get excited about for Senators fans. It’s not often that a team goes from a goal away from the Stanley Cup Finals to a 30th-place finish in one season, but the Senators did that in 2017-18. Many are expecting them to struggle again in 2018-19, but at least one distraction can potentially be put behind them now that Lee is no longer connected to the organization.