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A Trade Involving Erik Karlsson Is Unlikely To Occur In June

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While the belief around the league is that the Senators may trade winger Mike Hoffman by the NHL Entry Draft which begins June 22, Postmedia’s Don Brennan suggests that they will not be following the same timeframe when it comes to defenseman Erik Karlsson.  While many expect that Ottawa won’t be able to lock up their franchise player to a contract extension, it appears that GM Pierre Dorion will wait until he can officially make an offer to Karlsson on July 1st and then if it gets rejected and discussions stall, then the team will look to move their captain.

Meanwhile, Brennan cautions that the return on Hoffman may be disappointing.  He notes that the Senators have been actively shopping him over the last two weeks but his contract, which carries a cap hit just under $5.2MM for two more years, could hurt his value.  There are teams that will seek buy low opportunities on pricey players or trades where they could send someone making similar money back, elements that Ottawa likely won’t prefer.  Accordingly, Hoffman may not be as high on the priority list for some of the teams that are looking to add this offseason.

Mike Hoffman Trade Speculation Heats Up

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If you didn’t believe Darren Dreger when he told TSN 1200 yesterday that Mike Hoffman was likely to be traded before or during the June 22nd NHL Entry Draft, perhaps you’ll take another look after Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic was on the same radio station today explaining the situation surrounding the speedy winger.

From what I understand I think there’s a really strong chance that Hoffman gets dealt in the next couple of weeks here. But I think [the return] depends on the team you end up dealing with. Different teams have different assets, that if you’re [Senators GM] Pierre Dorion probably appeal to you. For example, let’s just pretend the Calgary Flames—who we know did reach out to Ottawa before the trade deadline about Mike Hoffman—you know if you’re Ottawa, you’ve got to look at Sam Bennett do you not? Is that not a desirable asset, hoping that you can turn the young man’s career around, and he’s a center? But if it’s another team it could be a younger player. I think it really depends on what team you end up finding a fit [with] in terms of the return.

At the very basic minimum, my understanding is that the Senators would want multiple assets back. Certainly not just a one-for-one.

Hoffman, 28, is coming off another 20-goal season and has two seasons left on his current contract. Able to bring speed and skill to any lineup, there will certainly be several suitors knocking down Dorion’s door to get a chance at him. For the Senators, trading him means giving up on the chemistry he seemed to build with Matt Duchene in the second half of the season, and attempting to rebuild with younger assets.

This summer could be one filled with fireworks for the Ottawa front office, as Erik Karlsson finds himself amid a hurricane of trade rumors as well. The superstar defenseman is heading into the final year of his current contract, and if the Senators can’t re-sign him quickly after July 1st the distraction might prove too much for a team trying to get back into the playoffs. Karlsson remains one of the top prizes on the trade market, but Hoffman doesn’t fall far behind.

Though teams have other options this summer with the free agent market looking like it will have players like James van Riemsdyk, James Neal and David Perron available, none are quite the style of player Hoffman is and will likely all demand longer contracts on the open market. For teams like the aforementioned Calgary Flames, he might seem like a much more appetizing option, even if he will cost multiple assets.

Ottawa is also facing a situation where they do not have a first-round pick next season, regardless of where it ends up. That’s thanks to the top-10 protection they placed on this year’s selection they sent Colorado for Duchene, which ended up landing at fourth-overall after the team struggled to find any success. It’s been a clear goal of the team to get back into the first round next season, as the team doesn’t look anywhere close to being a Stanley Cup contender and has never been able to afford quick fixes from the free agent market. Trading Hoffman and Karlsson though becomes a scary proposition when Colorado could potentially select first-overall in next year’s draft, and get to bring Jack Hughes (or another top prospect) in while Ottawa flounders at the bottom of the standings. Making a team that wins just enough to keep Colorado out of the top-10 may seem petty, but the pain from giving up a top pick can feel like too much to bear.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Draft Day Trade Rumors: O’Reilly, Hoffman, Coyotes, Maple Leafs

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Given the last-place finish of the Buffalo Sabres and the comments made by veteran leader Ryan O’Reilly at the end of the season, it would come as no surprise if the team was to trade away their best player not named Jack Eichel in an effort to build around Eichel and his fellow promising young players. Earlier today, TSN’s Darren Dreger spoke on the extensive demands that Buffalo GM Jason Botterill has for any return in an O’Reilly deal and, while he admitted that a deal is beginning to seem more likely, felt that it would take a lot of work for any team to make a fair offer in Botterill’s eyes. Dreger’s TSN colleague and The Athletic reporter Pierre LeBrun seems slightly more optimistic about the likelihood of a deal. LeBrun admits that O’Reilly likely wouldn’t mind returning to Buffalo, what with Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Dahlin likely in the fold next year and beyond, and the Sabres may not mind keeping him. However, LeBrun opines that if John Tavares re-signs with the New York Islanders prior to the NHL Draft, the top center on the free agent market will be Paul Stastny and many teams would prefer to search the trade market instead, where O’Reilly appears to be the top prize down the middle. Given the Sabres’ desire to add young pieces – picks and prospects – to develop alongside their new, young core, the draft would be the ideal time to strike on an O’Reilly trade. LeBrun goes so far as to say that the Montreal Canadiens have already discussed such a deal.

  • Another player who LeBrun feels is primed to be dealt during or around the upcoming draft is Ottawa Senators forward Mike Hoffman. Hoffman was a frequent member of the rumor mill through the most recent NHL Trade Deadline, but remained in Ottawa, at least for the time being. LeBrun says that those rumors are back in full swing and that he feels Hoffman will be traded at the draft. The Senators are not trending in the right direction and could benefit from both the multi-piece return that Hoffman would command and a reprieve from his $5.18MM salary over the next two seasons. LeBrun notes that the Los Angeles Kings and Calgary Flames were the top suitors for Hoffman at the deadline, but the St. Louis Blues and Florida Panthers were also among a plethora of teams pursuing a player who has flirted with 30 goals and 60 points for three years in a row.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes and Vancouver Canucks have already been rumored to be listening on offers for their top ten picks in the upcoming draft; add the Arizona Coyotes to that list as well. LeBrun states that the team has contemplated offers and would consider moving up or down on draft day, depending on how the picks fall. LeBrun believes that GM John Chayka has already spoken with the Montreal Canadiens about a swap involving picks #3 and #5, in case the Habs feel they can get the top center in the draft, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, later on and if the ’Yotes have a preferred choice between potential second overall picks Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina. He also feels that there is a strong chance that they could trade down, given the depth of defensemen in the first round versus the desire of other teams to move up for top forwards. Look for Arizona to be busy on the draft floor later this month.
  • Another team that could be making moves on draft day are the Toronto Maple Leafs. In a mailbag for The Athletic, Jame Mirtle says to expect new GM Kyle Dubas to trade down, perhaps even multiple times, during the draft. When Dubas ran the draft for the Leafs in 2015 he employed this strategy, seen far more often in the NFL than NHL. Dubas traded down twice in order to collect multiple picks in later rounds. In a draft that many feel has a significant drop-off in talent after the first 20-odd picks to a tier that encompasses the next 60 or so picks, if Toronto feels that they don’t have a surefire option at 25th overall, they could swap with a team who has a specific player in mind and potentially grab multiple player of similar caliber later on.

Poll: Superstar Defensemen On The Move

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Much has been made recently about the futures of five All-Star defenseman who are slated for free agency in 2019. Drew Doughty is working toward an extension with the Los Angeles Kings. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is sitting on an offer from the Arizona Coyotes. The Nashville Predators have made re-signing Ryan Ellis their priority this off-season. Ryan McDonagh was unable to bring home a Stanley Cup for the favorite Tampa Bay Lightning after a deadline blockbuster. And all of this has somehow overshadowed the potential availability of the Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson. 

All five of these superstar defenders could sign extensions on July 1st. Of course, they could all be dealt away even sooner. Doughty seems closest on a deal, but has strict salary demands that could end up souring one side or the other. Ekman-Larsson has always seemed loyal to the Coyotes, but is understandably concerned about the future of the team given their struggles throughout his career. Ellis too has been a loyal soldier for the Predators and an extremely underpaid one at that. He could make far more and play a far greater role elsewhere. McDonagh was acquired for the Bolts to make a title run this year and next, but beyond that point the team may not be able to afford him. Finally, Karlsson is the ultimate prize. He has expressed a desire to get fair market value on his next deal and polarizing Ottawa owner Eugene Melnyk seems unlikely to match.

So, as the off-season gets underway and these five know that their futures will be determined in the next twelve months, the question is how many re-sign and how many move on, either via trade or free agency? Which of these stars will don the same jersey in 2019-20 as they did in 2017-18?

Karlsson, Doughty, OEL, Ellis, McDonagh: How Many Re-Sign With Their Current Team?
3 40.29% (365 votes)
2 26.27% (238 votes)
4 16.23% (147 votes)
All 9.49% (86 votes)
1 5.30% (48 votes)
None 2.43% (22 votes)
Total Votes: 906

Snapshots: Ekman-Larsson, Boston University, Gurianov, Lockwood

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With the news that the Arizona Coyotes have offered defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson a new contract extension at eight years and $66MM, the real question is whether or not the 26-year-old star defenseman intends to stay in Arizona. The defenseman can’t officially sign an extension until July 1, but not signing the deal will make it clear whether he really wants to stay in Arizona like he has previously said.

The New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that if the defenseman doesn’t agree to sign the extension in the next couple of weeks, the team will almost guaranteed trade their star before the NHL draft this year to get the best possible return in the final year of his deal. In fact with the likelihood that the Ottawa Senators might be ready to move Erik Karlsson, this might be the best time for teams to get their hands on a star defenseman. Brooks adds that was one of the main reasons that the New York Rangers moved Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline, because they foresaw the possibility that both Ekman-Larsson and Karlsson might be available during the offseason which would have limited their return for McDonagh had they waited until now.

  • Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe writes that Boston University has narrowed its head coaching search to two candidates after the school lost David Quinn to the New York Rangers last week. The scribe writes that the head coaching post will come down to former alumni and ex-Boston Bruins winger Shawn McEachern and Union College head coach Rick Bennett. McEachern, who is currently the head coach at the Rivers School, would maintain the school’s long-time BU lineage, while Bennett would offer new blood and a coach who has already won a NCAA title.
  • With the Dallas Stars’ AHL affiliate, the Texas Stars in the AHL Calder Cup Championships, much has been made about the Stars’ Denis Gurianov, Dallas’ first-round pick in the 2015 draft (12th overall), who was listed as a healthy scratch before Game 1 today. Despite tallying 19 goals for Texas this season, the fact that he has been a healthy scratch multiple times during the playoffs is an immensely bad sign, according to NHL.com’s Patrick Williams. In 14 playoff games this year, Gurianov has just five points. The Stars drafted Gurianov over several impactful players that year, including Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor and Jack Roslovic.
  • Vancouver Canucks and University of Michigan prospect Will Lockwood, who injured his shoulder while at the World Juniors this winter and required major surgery, has been cleared to skate and hopes to be ready for the Canucks’ annual prospect development camp this summer and is expected to be fully healthy for his junior year with the Wolverines, according to The Athletic’s Mike Halford (subscription required). The 2016 third-round pick was having a solid year with Michigan, putting up four goals and seven assists in 16 games before getting injured.

Free Agent Focus: Ottawa Senators

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Free agency is now a little more than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Ottawa’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: D Cody Ceci – While Ceci may not be universally loved by the traditional scouting or analytics community, his role on the Senators is clear. He’s expected to anchor the shutdown second pair and allow Erik Karlsson’s unit to play more offensively against weaker competition. Ceci logged over 23 minutes a night last season, easily registering more short-handed time than any other player for the Senators. His 2:46 of penalty killing time every night was a minute more than any defenseman expected to be with the club next season, with only Dion Phaneuf (now with the Kings) and Johnny Oduya (free agent) closer than Ben Harpur’s 1:43 average.

That’s a heavy load for Ceci under noted defensive coach Guy Boucher, and one that has limited any offensive upside he showed as a young player. Ceci recorded just 19 points last season, with only 14 of those coming at even-strength. That doesn’t give him a lot of firepower when going into contract negotiations, as defensive metrics are harder to argue. Still, he should see a raise on the $2.8MM he earned in 2017-18, especially if he signs long-term. Ceci is on track to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2020 since he started his career so young, meaning anything longer than a two-year contract will be buying out UFA years.

F Mark Stone – Though Ceci is important, it all comes down to Stone this summer for the Senators as they look to lock up their best offensive player. Any contract Stone signs will send him to unrestricted free agency at its conclusion, meaning both sides will probably be looking for a long-term deal. The 26-year old is coming off arguably his best season even though he played in just 58 games due to injury, as he was more than a point-per-game player during those contests. With 62 points on the year he registered his fourth consecutive 20+ goal, 50+ point season and is one of the league’s top takeaway artists, able to strip the puck from unsuspecting defensemen with ease.

Nearly everyone that watches the Senators on a regular basis realizes that Stone is an elite player in the NHL, but unfortunately for the club (and their frustrated ownership) that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s very well-known around the league to fans of other teams. That might help them in negotiations, as his lack of All-Star notoriety may keep his cap hit relatively reasonable. After earning an average of $3.5MM for the past three seasons, it’s not out of the question that he could double his salary should he sign long-term, and end up with a contract like Evander Kane’s recent seven-year, $49MM deal.

Other RFAs: D Fredrik Claesson, G Chris Driedger, F Nick Moutrey, F Nick Paul

Key Unrestricted Free Agent: D Chris Wideman – If Ceci has been overused in his time in Ottawa, the opposite could be said for Wideman who despite good possession statistics and excellent offensive pedigree has averaged just under 14 minutes a night during his Senators career. This season was even more disappointing for the 28-year old defenseman, as he tore his hamstring in November and played only 16 games all year. He had eight points in those 16 contests, showing off the ability that made him a 61-point player in the AHL in 2014-15, but never could return before the end of the year despite his hard rehab schedule.

Wideman seems like he’s destined to go unsigned by the Senators, unless of course they’ve made the decision to trade Karlsson after all. If they do end up moving their captain, bringing back a good puck-moving right-handed defenseman like Wideman makes a lot of sense. Otherwise there isn’t a lot of room for him on a club that looks like it will have at least six NHL defensemen already under contract. Perhaps since he missed most of the season Wideman wouldn’t be looking for much of a raise on his $800K salary from 2017-18, but with the free agent market thin on talent from the right side there ought to be plenty of suitors for his services come July 1.

Other UFAs: F Tyler Randell, F Mike Blunden, F Max Reinhart

Projected Cap Space: Ottawa only has around $60MM committed for next season, and with the cap ceiling expected to climb to something around $80MM there is plenty of room for Stone and Ceci to be re-signed without hamstringing the team on the free agent market. That said, the Senators have never been a team to spend heavily on big name free agents and have an owner that sets an internal budget separate from the league’s cap. After a season at the bottom of the league without playoff revenue, it’s not clear how flush with cash the Senators will be this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Magnus Paajarvi Signs One-Year Extension

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The Ottawa Senators have come to an agreement with Magnus Paajarvi, signing the Swedish forward to a one-year contract extension worth $900K. Paajarvi was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this summer. GM Pierre Dorion released this statement along with the announcement:

We’re happy to have Magnus back in Ottawa. He showed us last season that he can play the game with speed, which fits with the style of play we want our team to exhibit. Magnus is a versatile player who will be able to provide us productive minutes in many situations.

Paajarvi, 27, was claimed off waivers by the Senators midseason and found himself a good fit in their bottom-six. Registering eight points in 35 games after the claim, the Senators used him heavily on the penalty kill and will likely continue to do so moving forward. Selected 10th overall by the Edmonton Oilers in 2009, many expected Paajarvi to develop into a premiere power forward that could play in all situations. Instead, after a 15-goal, 34-point rookie season in 2010-11 he has failed to eclipse 10 goals or 16 points in any following year. That’s not good enough to deserve a spot in the top-six, but Ottawa isn’t signing him with that in mind.

Still, there is a chance that he can find some more offense in Ottawa with regular playing time. His stint in St. Louis was filled with trips to injured reserve and the minor leagues, never really finding a consistent footing. A one-year deal poses little risk for the Senators, who could easily waive or bury his entire cap hit should they feel the need. Paajarvi will be an unrestricted free agent again in the summer of 2019.

Bettman And Daly Discuss Expansion, Salary Cap, Playoffs And More In State Of The League Address

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NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly spoke with the media today ahead of Game One of the Stanley Cup Final to address ongoing league issues. The pair answered questions for close to an hour combined and touched on many of the most important issues facing the NHL currently:

  • Bettman clarified the situation regarding Seattle and the next round of expansion in the NHL. He began by shooting down rumors that the Board of Governors would vote on Seattle’s expansion bid at next month’s meeting. Instead, Bettman offered meetings in September or December of this year as the likely voting date. Bettman stressed that there was never any timetable for this round of expansion, so there is no delay in evaluating Seattle’s situation, but instead said that “the train just hasn’t arrived at the station on time.” However, Bettman did add that there has been “no pushback whatsoever” from the owners on adding another team and using the same Expansion Draft rules that Vegas received, so it seems that the plan to add Seattle is full steam ahead.
  • Daly addressed the expansion possibilities in Houston, stating that there have been conversations with the new owner of the NBA’s Houston Rockets, Tilman Fertitta, about potential interest. Daly admits that Fertitta is interested and did not seem to care whether a Houston team would be added through expansion or relocation. However, Daly does not believe that any such move to Houston is imminent, as the Rockets ownership group is still adjusting to owning one team, nevertheless already looking to add another.
  • In regards to recent comments from Boston Bruins owner Jeremy Jacobs, who stated that the league did not want a team in Quebec City, Bettman refuted the claim and said only that Jacobs was speaking for himself and not all of his fellow owners. It does seem that Quebec City is solidly in third, at best, among potential NHL expansion cities, but Bettman does not want to alienate a key Canadian fan base by agreeing that the league will never return to the city.
  • Bettman also addressed the situation in Ottawa, making it clear that the Senators are not for sale. Bettman stood behind owner Eugene Melnyk, as he has in the past, calling him a “committed owner”. Many Sens fans and other around the league may disagree, but the league currently seems content to let things play out in Ottawa.
  • Both Bettman and Daly confirmed that the league did not suffer an adverse effects from not participating in the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. The league’s decision was highly criticized by fans, players, and corporate partners alike, but neither Bettman nor Daly expressed any regret. They said that no decision has been made about the 2022 Games in Beijing, China just yet.
  • In fact, the league must have enjoyed a strong season financially, as Daly estimates that the salary cap for the 2018-19 season will fall somewhere between $78MM and $82MM. The midpoint, $80MM, would represent a $5MM increase from this past season. Just that number would be the largest increase in the salary cap limit in a decade. This news, even just as an estimate, could drastically change the landscape of this upcoming off-season.
  • This increased profit also has Bettman optimistically talking collective bargaining. Bettman seemed pleased when discussing league finances and said he was ready to sit down and negotiate a new CBA with the players’ association at any time. The current CBA expires after the 2021-22 season, although both sides may opt out in September of 2019. Bettman seemed hopeful that the NHLPA would be ready to begin negotiations shortly to avoid any future work stoppage.
  • Bettman quickly addressed the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on legalized sports betting, saying that the NHL would prefer federal oversight and consistency rather than state-by-state unique betting structures. Unfortunately for him, that is unlikely given the court’s decision.
  • Bettman also briefly mentioned that the league is getting closer to having accurate player and puck tracking data readily available. This would provide a major boost to hockey analytics and player evaluation.
  • Daly added that third jerseys are on their way back to the NHL. Adidas did not make alternate jerseys this year in their first season as the NHL’s supplier, but will have them ready for next year. Daly revealed that nearly a third of the teams will have brand new third jerseys in 2018-19.
  • The most controversial comment of the night came from Daly, who said that the league feels that their current playoff format is the best ever and that no changes are on the horizon. This is totally counter to the general public sentiment this postseason.
  • Seemingly the only major topic that the Commissioner and Deputy Commissioner did not touch on is concussions. Bettman fielded one such question by simply refusing to answer, saying “I’m not going to start another news cycle”. Daly added little more, saying that it’s not Bettman’s opinion, but so far there is not enough evidence from the league’s scientists that CTE and concussions are connected. Maybe that was the most controversial comment…

Ottawa Senators Sign Patrick Sieloff To Two-Year Deal

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The Ottawa Senators have retained another depth defenseman, signing Patrick Sieloff to a two-year, two-way contract. The deal carries an average annual value of $700K in the NHL, though will pay him considerably less while in the AHL.

Sieloff, 24, was acquired from the Calgary Flames back in 2016 in exchange for Alex Chiasson but has only played one game for the Senators during his time in the organization. Instead, he’s suited up for 110 AHL contests, registering 22 points and over 200 penalty minutes. The second-round pick from 2012 has never been able to live up to his prospect hype, that saw him as a minute-munching defensive option that could engage physically.

Unfortunately, the issues that plagued him as a young player—namely a lack of foot speed and quickness—are still likely the reason for his status as an AHL regular. Though there is still time for him to improve his game and break into the NHL at a later age, it seems more likely that he’ll be an excellent minor league option for the Senators as they continue to try and find success for their Belleville team.

Poll: Should Pittsburgh Have Traded For Derick Brassard?

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With the Eastern Conference Finals set to continue on Monday between the Washington Capitals and the Tampa Bay Lightning, one team that hasn’t been sitting around for the last couple of years is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Entering the playoffs red-hot after a key trade deadline acquistion, many people thought that the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins might make their third-straight trip to the Stanley Cup. Instead, they were ousted by the Capitals, who are fighting for their life.

The Penguins felt they hit the jackpot after making a big three-way trade between the Ottawa Senators and the Vegas Golden Knights to acquire that second-line center they desperately needed in Derick Brassard. While he seemed to be a good fit early during the final part of the regular season when he put up eight points in 14 games, Brassard suffered through an undisclosed “difficult injury,” near the end of the season and struggled throughout the playoffs. He managed just one goal and four points in 12 playoff games.

“I don’t know if we ever got there, to the comfort level where we know he’s capable of being the player he is,” said head coach Mike Sullivan following the season.

In exchange for Brassard, the Penguins gave up quite a bit to the Ottawa Senators and Vegas Golden Knights, including defenseman Ian Cole (who was subsequently flipped to Columbus), goaltending prospect Filip Gustavsson, enforcer Ryan Reaves, a 2018 first-round pick, a 2019 third-round pick and the Vancouver Canucks’ 2018 fourth-round pick.

Cole fit in nicely with Columbus and became a key piece to the Blue Jackets’ defensive core and his gritty play and leadership may have been missed from the Penguins lineup, although defenseman Chad Ruhwedel did a solid job replacing him. While many won’t miss Reaves, his size and leadership also may have been underestimated as he eventually was a key figure in the Vegas Golden Knights’ playoff run, scoring the game-winning goal to clinch the team’s first trip to the Stanley Cup. And while the Penguins are overloaded in prospects, Gustavsson finished his season, came over to the U.S. and already on the Senators’ AHL roster getting valuable playing time.

That doesn’t include the picks that the Penguins have given up, not including the fact that Pittsburgh will have drafted in the first round just once in the past six years (and Kasperi Kapanen was traded not long after to Toronto).

On a positive note, the Penguins have one more year to show that Brassard was worth the haul they gave up. He still has one more year at $3MM (after Vegas retained some of his salary) suggesting he’s on a very affordable contract.

So, did the Penguins make the right decision in trading for Brassard?

Should the Penguins have traded for Derick Brassard?
Yes. The Penguins had to go for it as their window is closing. 54.94% (662 votes)
No. They gave up too much for a 30-year-old center. 45.06% (543 votes)
Total Votes: 1,205

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