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Atlantic Notes: Marner, Red Wings Trades, Bruins Rookies

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Mitch Marner is ready for the spotlight of Toronto hockey writes Sportsnet’s Michael Grange. The fourth overall pick from the 2014 NHL Draft is ready to prove he belongs in Toronto as he attends his third prospect camp since being selected by the Leafs. Marner has played well with the Ontario Hockey League’s London Knights, registering 59 points (13-46) in 2013-14, 126 points (44-82) in 2014-15,  and 116 points (39-77) in 2015-16. His monstrous production over the past two seasons has the Leafs’ brass attention and Grange writes that should he produce the wizardry he did in London, he’ll absolutely be playing in Toronto this fall. During the Leafs 2-1 victory over the Senators Friday night during the Leafs Rookie Tournament, Marner played well in the Leafs 2-1 victory over the Senators, and also demonstrated some physicality in the Leafs’ win.

In other Atlantic Division notes:

  • Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes that the Red Wings lack of trades indicate some deeper issues in Hockeytown. The Wings wanted to move Jimmy Howard but failed to do so. They are trying to acquire a top four defenseman but haven’t been able to do that either. Lambert reports that the problem is all the money tied up in older veterans like Henrik Zetterberg and goes as far to say that the Red Wings made a number of poor contract choices this summer. This has been levied by many analysts regarding general manager Ken Holland’s decisions and has contributed to the Red Wings current situation of cap hell. Lambert further writes that the forward core had its struggles last season and that the defense is leaky. Lambert sees the Wings not making any trades due to this situation–unless they find themselves on the outside looking in at the trade deadline. And at that point, the Wings may be sacrificing the future for another playoff run that may end as quickly as the last three have.
  • Joe Haggerty reports via CSNNE that a number of Bruins’ rookies have a real shot at cracking the Bruins roster this fall. Haggerty quotes Boston general manager Don Sweeney as saying that the “door is wide open” for younger players to make their mark. Brandon Carlo, Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon are three players to watch, and Haggerty says that Carlo has the inside track to make the team out of camp. He does believe that some extra time in the AHL may be a more realistic start for Carlo. Danton Heinen and Jake DeBrusk are also other young Bruins to watch as the Bruins start their analysis of their young talent.

Snapshots: Sedins, Gaudreau, Strome, Dvorak

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They may turn 36-years-old later this month and certainly they are in the twilight of their tremendous careers, but that doesn’t mean the Sedin twins, Daniel and Henrik, are thinking about retiring any time soon. Still with two years remaining on the matching deals they have with the Canucks – at an AAV of $7MM – the Sedins are adamant that there will be one more contract in their shared future, according to Mark Spector of Sportsnet. Whether that contract is with the Canucks or not remains to be seen. As Henrik said:

“If they don’t want us there, then we’ve got to make a decision. We’re not going to retire because we don’t want to play for another team.”

The likelihood the twins retire as Canucks likely depends on a couple of factors. First, how effective will they be at age 38 and two, will Vancouver have embraced a full rebuild by that point. Not many players remain particularly effective into their late 30’s but the Sedins have shown to be an exception. Last year, each twin tallied an average of 0.74 points-per-game, which prorates to roughly 60 over an 82-game schedule. For their careers, Henrik has slightly outproduced his brother, 0.83 to 0.82 points-per-game. The Sedins are still producing reasonably close to their career scoring rates.

Still, in two seasons, Henrik could have more than 1,300 NHL games under his belt and Daniel can reach that plateau if he plays virtually game over the next couple of years. That’s a lot of hockey and doesn’t even count postseason or international contests.

It’s also quite possible the Canucks will have little interest in keeping the Sedins beyond the 2017-18 campaign, as Spector points out. Vancouver doesn’t look to be a playoff team this season and many of their better players are also in the later stages of their careers. The club does have some high-end prospects coming – Brock Boeser and Olli Juolevi, for example – but their system isn’t particularly deep in quality talent. It’s likely their top prospects will just be breaking into the league by 2018-19 and while it’s never a bad thing to have veteran mentors the caliber of the Sedins, the organization may simply want to move in another direction by that point.

The Sedins may well be among the most interesting free agents on the 2018 open market.

More from around the NHL:

  • Perhaps the top remaining unsigned restricted free agent, Johnny Gaudreau, is still no closer to a resolution of his status, and as Eric Francis reports, the contract situation has been “painful,” for the Flames young star. “Honestly, throughout the whole summer and contract situation it’s been so painful because every day it’s something that’s on my mind.” Fortunately for Gaudreau, the World Cup has provided the Team North America participant with a distraction from the situation. “So this tourney has helped me not worry about that. I can just play hockey, have fun, be part of the team and hang out with teammates. It’s been the easiest part of my summer without the contract situation there.” It would be shocking if a new accord between the two sides wasn’t reached soon after the World Cup. Both sides clearly want to get a deal done; it’s just a matter of closing the remaining gap and finding common ground. At least playing in the World Cup will help keep Gaudreau sharp and ready for the regular season, assuming he misses all or part of training camp.
  • John Chayka made a number of moves this summer designed to help the Coyotes get back to the playoffs after a four year absence. However, two players drafted before the league’s youngest GM assumed his position may play critical roles if the team is to qualify for the postseason tournament. Writing for the Coyotes team website, Dave Vest reports that while Chayka is pleased with the overall depth of the team’s prospect pool, expectations are specifically high for 2015 first-round pick Dylan Strome and 2014 second-round choice Christian Dvorak. Strome could position himself to earn one of the team’s top two center positions with a good training camp. In fact, their current depth chart on Roster Resource already lists him as the top center, although he’d likely be best suited playing more protected minutes. Still, Chayka has made it clear to Strome and the other prospects what he expects to see at the team’s prospect camp. “He’s just a real smart, cerebral player who does a lot of good things. It’s not like he has to be hitting the scoresheet every night to make an impact. We want him to play a 200-foot game and look after all the details that we know he learned from last year’s camp. We’re looking for consistency. It’s one thing to have one good game but you have to come in each day and follow that up consistently. For Dylan, and for all of our players, it’s a matter of making an impact in the game consistently. That’s what we’re looking for.” 

 

Snapshots: Robidas, Bartkowski, Zuccarello

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It appears the playing career of defenseman Stephane Robidas is over but that doesn’t mean he’s leaving the sport of hockey altogether, according to Lance Hornby in the Toronto Sun. The veteran of 15 NHL seasons injured his leg during training camp last year and is still unable to resume any hockey-related activities. But while he can’t suit up for the Maple Leafs, Robidas will still be able to contribute to the organization in his new role as a consultant.

Robidas, in the final year of a three-year 35+ deal with an AAV of $3MM, says he will be based in Montreal and work with the Toronto Marlies and scout some NCAA games. While not technically retiring – he will be placed on IR by the team thus negating his cap charge – Robidas concludes his NHL career with 258 point and 713 penalty minutes in 937 NHL games.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • The Ottawa Senators announced via the team’s website that they have signed defenseman Matt Bartkowski to a PTO agreement. Bartkowski, who has appeared in parts of six NHL campaigns, five with the Bruins, saw action in a career-high 80 games last season with Vancouver. He tallied a career-best six goals – ironically the first goals of his NHL career – and tied his career-high with 18 points. Bartkowski, a left defender, will likely compete with Mark Borowiecki for a spot on the third pair. Borowiecki, coming off he season in which he netted just two points and averaged just 14:38 of ice time, could be vulnerable to a challenge for his job.
  • Due to cap restrictions and the desire to get younger, the New York Rangers have had to make some difficult roster decisions the last two summers. Among them were the decisions to deal winger Carl Hagelin and pivot Derick Brassard in back-to-back offseasons. Those trades were particularly tough on the team’s leading scorer in 2015-16, Mats Zuccarello, who saw both of his best friends shipped off to other organizations. While he understands that’s the nature of the business, he did have some advice for his teammates: “Don’t be friends with me. Or else you might be traded,” as Larry Brooks of the New York Post writes. All kidding aside, Zuccarello already feels in mid-season form due to his participation in both the Olympic qualifying tournament and the World Cup of Hockey. As Brooks notes, Zuccarello has already seen action in 10 games, helping Norway qualify for the 2018 Winter Olympics and skating with Team Europe in the World Cup. He is also looking forward to the new NHL season getting started and is excited by what management has done this summer.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pearson, Donskoi, Horvat, Gudbranson

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish up in the Pacific Division.

Tanner Pearson (Los Angeles) – Pearson is a solid, two-way winger who has seen a fair amount of action on a line with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli affectionately referred to as “That 70’s Line.” He tallied 15 goals and 36 points in 2015-16 and has a scoring rate of 0.43 Pts/Game in 146 career contests. Pearson is currently slated to make $1.4MM in the second and final season of a two-year deal.

Pearson’s career production is similar to that of two recent RFA signees: J.T. Miller of the Rangers and Cody Eakin of the Stars. Miller posted career-best totals of 22 goals, 21 assists and 43 points in 2015-16 and has a career scoring rate of 0.52 Pts/Game. Eakin has a career Pts/Game rate of 0.45 and has scored at least 35 points in each of the last three seasons as Dallas’ third center.

Statistically, Pearson would seem to match up well with Eakin meaning another season of 35 – 40 points could line him up to receive something similar to the four-year, $15.4MM $3.875MM AAV) deal Eakin is set to play under beginning this season. But if the Kings and Pearson can’t get a long-term deal done, it’s possible the two-year, $5.5MM ($2.75MM AAV) bridge contract of Miller works as a comparable.

Joonas Donskoi (San Jose) – Donskoi was a surprisingly steady producer for the Sharks and played a key role in helping San Jose reach the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history in 2015-16. Given his first taste of North American pro hockey, the Finnish winger contributed 36 points in 76 contests and added another 12 points in the playoffs. Donskoi seemed to find chemistry with Logan Couture this past season and if given another opportunity to play on the skilled pivot’s wing, he could cross the 40-point plateau in 2016-17.

Production-wise, Donskoi would appear to be close enough to Pearson’s level that the Miller and Eakin contracts should serve as fair comparisons. Another possible comparable who would appear to set the floor of Donskoi’s expectations is Michael Raffl, who after seasons of 28 and 31 points, respectively, inked a three-year, $7.05MM ($2.35MM AAV) pact with the Flyers. Both started their professional careers in Europe and jumped to the NHL in their mid-20’s. If Donskoi’s production takes a step back from his rookie level, he could be looking at a new deal in the same range as Raffl’s.

Bo Horvat (Vancouver) – After a solid debut campaign as a 19-year-old rookie two years ago with the Canucks, Horvat bumped his production up from 25 points to 40 points as a sophomore in 2016-17. He has the skill and ability to improve his numbers even further in his third season if given an opportunity for top-six ice time.

If Horvat can take the next step to 50 points or so, a new contract could be similar to that of Nick Bjugstad’s in Florida. After netting 38 points in his first full campaign, Bjugstad tallied 43 in 201-15 and was rewarded with a six-year, $24.6MM deal which took effect upon the expiration of his ELC. Both players are versatile enough to play up and down the lineup and fill a variety of roles. The Canucks will have to be frugal, however, as they already have more than $52MM tied up in 14 players for 2017-18 leaving roughly $20MM or so – depending on where the cap ceiling falls – to re-sign several key RFAs. It’s possible they push for a less expensive bridge deal as a result.

Erik Gudbranson (Vancouver) – The Canucks took some criticism when they dealt 19-year-old Jared McCann, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, and two draft choices for Gudbranson this past May. It’s not that Gudbranson isn’t a good player; it’s more that the Canucks aren’t likely to be a playoff squad in 2016-17 and shouldn’t be sacrificing controllable young talent for a player who is set to get pretty expensive.

Gudbranson inked a one-year pact worth $3.5MM soon after the trade and will again be a RFA after the upcoming season. With five years of NHL experience already under his belt, Gudbranson will be just two seasons away from unrestricted free agency following the 2016-17 campaign. That means any long-term extension is likely going to buy out multiple free agent seasons.

Gudbranson is a physical, defense-first blue liner, who doesn’t contribute much offense. His single-season career-high in points scored is just 13. Obviously Gudbranson will be looking for a raise on his $3.5MM salary. One potential comparable for Gudbranson is Adam Larsson, who signed a six-year, $25MM extension and like the Vancouver defender is known more for his defense than his offense. But Larsson’s deal took effect on the conclusion of his ELC and only bought out a single free agent year.

A closer comparable may be Canadiens defenseman Alexei Emelin, who is also a defense-first blue liner with a career high in points of just 17. He is in the midst of a four-year deal with an AAV of $4.1MM.

With most teams favoring mobile, puck-moving defenders over tough, physical defensive defenseman like Gudbranson, it will be interesting to see what value they place on the big blue liner.

 

Training Camp Competitions: Vesey, Buchnevich, Montour

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Despite an apparently dire need to fortify their blue line corps, the New York Rangers instead spent a vast majority of their offseason resources adding depth to the forward ranks. After a flurry of free agent transactions, the Blueshirts added Brandon Pirri, Jimmy Vesey, Josh Jooris, Nathan Gerbe and Michael Grabner giving the club 15 forwards with a realistic shot to contribute this season on Manhattan. This depth is sure to create competition and provide head coach Alain Vigneault with plenty of alternatives to guard against injuries or ineffectiveness.

Vesey joins top prospect Pavel Buchnevich as rookies who hope to provide a significant impact in their first seasons in New York. But given the Rangers depth up front, the two youngsters don’t have their spots in the lineup guaranteed as Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post writes. For his part, Vesey understands that he will have to earn ice time and accepts it as part of being a professional.

“Nothing is given in sports. At the end of the day, I have to go and make the team. It’s my first camp, and I’m looking to definitely turn some heads and earn a roster spot.”

The talented youngsters are already getting a head start as they are part of the Rangers prospect contingent that is participating in the annual Traverse City tournament. Newsday’s Steve Zipay reports that Buchnevich and Vesey are skating together on a line centered by University of Michigan Wolverine Cristoval “Boo” Nieves.

Ultimately, Vesey and Buchnevich will have their fair share of opportunities to contribute this season for the Rangers. Their upside trumps their lack of experience and should ensure they earn regular roles up front with the Blueshirts.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • Once the Ducks get Hampus Lindholm signed to a new contract, the team will have seven NHL-caliber defensemen on their roster. That doesn’t count top prospect Shea Theodore, who saw his first NHL action in 2015-16 and had a solid showing, collecting eight points in 19 games. This enviable depth has fueled rumors all summer that the team could look to move one of their pricier d-men in a deal to acquire a scoring left wing. While a trade has not yet transpired, were it to happen, Theodore would not be the only blue liner to potentially benefit. Brandon Montour, the Ducks second-round pick in 2014, has added needed muscle and strength this offseason to aid his quest to make his NHL debut in 2016-17, writes Kyle Shohara of the Ducks official website. Montour was named to the AHL All-Rookie Team on the heels of an impressive 12-goal, 57-point season with the San Diego Gulls. Even if the Ducks do deal one of their defenders, it’s likely Montour will again spend a majority of his time in San Diego but it’s conceivable the 22-year-old will make his NHL debut.
  • Long one of the best offensive defenseman in the AHL, T.J. Brennan has yet to parlay his minor league success into consistent work in the NHL. Now Brennan has joined his hometown Philadelphia Flyers with the hope that he can suit up at some point this season for the team he grew up rooting for, as Sam Carchidi reports. Brennan, 27, has appeared in 443 AHL contests and his 113 goals rank fifth all time among defensemen in that league. As Carchidi points out, Brennan’s struggles in his own end are likely the reason the offensively-inclined blue liner has accumulated just 53 games of NHL experience. The Flyers boast a wealth of defensive prospects which will likely work against Brennan’s chances of making the team. But he should at least serve the organization well as a mentor for those prospects joining him with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms.

Canadiens Notes: Pacioretty, Sergachev, McCarron, Lehkonen, Scherbak

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It’s been an interesting offseason for the Montreal Canadiens, to put it mildly. First, they traded away the very charismatic and talented P.K. Subban in a deal that was panned by many pundits and not particularly popular among fans in Montreal. It’s believed that Subban’s colorful personality may not have sat well with the old-school sensibilities of head coach Michel Therrien and general manager Marc Bergevin. Shea Weber, the player acquired for Subban, is quiet and serious, as well as talented and accomplished. At this point in their respective careers, Subban is the more dynamic player and one who offers more long-term value. But Weber is the safer, more conservative defenseman and that apparently was the direction Habs decision-makers were going toward.

Next, the team reached an accord with controversial winger Alexander Radulov on a free agent contract. While Radulov’s talent is unquestioned, he didn’t end his last NHL tenure on a good note and there is certainly risk bringing him on board. In a way, the move contradicted the concept of conservatism the Weber acquisition seemed to suggest.

Now it’s been reported that Therrien was overheard recently at a golf course saying that Max Pacioretty was the worst captain in team history (link in French). For his part, Pacioretty dismissed the report and indicated that after speaking with team coaches, he believes the comments were “reported erroneously,” as Greg Wyshynski of Yahoo Sports writes. He also considers it an honor just to be among the few who have worn the “C” in the team’s illustrious history.

It’s quite possible this situation has blown out of proportion, as Pacioretty suggested. Nonetheless, there were rumors last year that the Habs were unhappy with Subban and could look to move him before his full no move clause kicked in. Those stories were denied by Bergevin practically up until the moment the trade was announced. It will be interesting to follow the Pacioretty story in 2016-17 to see if it ends up swept under the rug or if it is yet another example of where there is smoke, there is fire.

Elsewhere in Habs Land:

  • The Canadiens, like other teams, are set to open their prospect camp, where they will get a sort of progress report on their top young players. Mikhail Sergachev is the one player sure to attract the most attention from evaluators, according to Eric Engels of Sportsnet. Sergachev was the team’s first-round pick in June, chosen 9th overall. One evaluator, Canadiens director of development, Martin Lapointe, already likes what he sees from the skilled, young Russian defender. “His level of confidence with the puck, at his age, is exceptional. To only be 18 and be so composed with the puck is impressive.” Sergachev is almost certainly at least a year or two away from regular duty in the NHL but it’s apparent the Habs are intrigued with his skill set.
  • In addition to Sergachev, Pat Hickey of the Montreal Gazette lists three other prospects the Canadiens will be keeping close tabs on during the camp. Michael McCarron, who we recently profiled here, is a big forward who could add needed size and skill to the team’s bottom six. Artturi Lehkonen is a highly skilled winger who tallied 33 points in 49 games playing in Sweden. According to Hickey, Lehkonen might be best served starting in the AHL as he acclimates to North America. Nikita Scherbak is yet another skilled forward prospect that also has some grit to his game. Hickey reports his progress has been stunted by injuries, though he did get his first taste of pro experience, appearing in 48 games with St. John’s in the AHL and scoring 23 points. Quite likely he will also begin the year in the AHL but could be considered for an early call-up if injuries or ineffectiveness strikes the Canadiens forward corps.

 

Snapahots: Gibbons, Lindback, Sobotka

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The New Jersey Devils have extended PTO agreements to veteran goaltender Anders Linback – per Henrik Sjoberg of Sport Expressen (link in Swedish) – and speedy forward Brian Gibbons – via tweet from the Devils PR department. The two will attend camp with the Devils in search of an NHL job.

Lindback has led a nomadic NHL career to date. He has already suited up for five different franchises in his six-year career, including four in the last three seasons. He was originally a seventh-round draft choice of Nashville, with whom he spent the first two years of his NHL career. In an ultimately one-sided move, Lindback was acquired from Nashville by Tampa Bay in a deal that saw the Lightning give up three draft choices – two seconds and a third.

After two mostly lackluster seasons with the Lightning, Lindback has served as a backup with Dallas, Buffalo and Arizona. Last season with the Coyotes, Lindback appeared in 19 games, starting 13, and posted a GAA of 3.11 and a Save % of 89.4%. Lindback will likely be given a chance to compete with Keith Kinkaid for the #2 job behind Cory Schneider. Kinkaid would seem to have the upper-hand at the outset given his superior career numbers but Lindback could also provide experienced support in the minor leagues.

Gibbons is a diminutive yet quick forward who has so far been unable to earn a regular role in the NHL. Last season was spent in the Rangers organization where he contributed 23 points in 63 games. He’s appeared in a total of 66 NHL contests with Pittsburgh and Columbus where he has combined to score five goals and 22 points while averaging 12:39 of ice time per game. As with Lindback, Gibbons will likely see little NHL action but should serve as a quality organizational depth piece.

Elsewhere in the NHL:

  • Earlier today, PHR provided an update on the status of Vladimir Sobotka, who has been actively seeking to terminate the final season of his KHL deal in order to return to the St. Louis Blues. In a piece appearing on Yahoo Sports, Stephen Whyno has added that Sobotka is no longer confident a resolution will be reached despite talks continuing between the two sides. ”It’s been going on for five months, so I’ve had enough of it. I’m not thinking about it. It’s just getting ready for workouts. I don’t want to think about it anymore.”  Player transfers between the KHL and NHL have often been acrimonious and the guess is Sobotka’s current employer, Avangard Omsk, is seeking some sort of compensation for releasing the player. The Blues have been expecting Sobotka’s return and after losing both David Backes and Troy Brouwer as free agents, they could use the veteran Czech. Still, St. Louis has guarded themselves somewhat by inviting four free agent forwards to camp on a tryout basis. That may well have been done in case there was an issue with Sobotka’s return.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pacific Division, Part I

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we start in the Pacific Division.

Anthony Duclair (Arizona) – “The Duke” is coming off a solid rookie season, scoring 20 goals and posting 44 points in 81 games for the Coyotes. Arizona acquired Duclair and a couple of draft picks from the New York Rangers at the 2015 deadline in the Keith Yandle deal. Duclair, considered a first-round talent in his draft year, tumbled into the third-round following an injury-shortened 2014-15 campaign in the QMJHL.

Another 20+ goal campaign could propel Duclair’s earning potential into the $4MM range annually. Mike Hoffman, who has scored 27 and 29 goals respectively the last two seasons, inked a four-year deal with an AAV of more than $5MM per season. On the heels of back-to-back 21-goal campaigns, Chris Kreider also landed a four-year pact, his worth $18.5MM in total. Kreider was coming off his second contract, Hoffman his ELC. Based on experience, Hoffman would be the better comparable but the goal-scoring numbers are likely to match up better with Kreider. Either way, if Duclair can match or exceed his 2015-16 production this season, a $4MM+ AAV on a new contract would be realistic.

Sam Bennett (Calgary) – Bennett, the fourth overall selection in the 2014 entry draft, posted an 18-18=36 scoring line as a rookie with the Flames in 2015-16, while playing the entire campaign as a 19-year-old. Along with the aforementioned Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, Bennett is part of a strong nucleus of young talent the Flames are counting on to lead the club into Stanley Cup contention.

Assuming an uptick in performance given Bennett now has a full year of NHL experience under his belt, it will be interesting to see how the Flames handle his restricted free agency. They’ve already locked up Monahan to a rich long-term extension and seem to want to do the same for Gaudreau. If they elect to go the same route with Bennett, he’ll likely need to do much better than 36 points to earn a contract in the same ballpark as Monahan’s.

Instead, perhaps a two-year bridge deal similar to the one Kevin Hayes received this summer makes more sense for the two sides. Hayes, who has tallied 81 points in 158 NHL games, inked a two-year pact worth $2.6MM per. That deal might be a fair comparable for Bennett assuming a 40 – 50-point output in 2016-17. A bridge deal also allows Bennett to further prove he can be a top-line player in the league.

Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – There was thought that perhaps the Oilers rushed Draisaitl to the NHL and possibly hindered his long term development based on the German pivot’s dreadful rookie year. After being chosen third in the 2014 draft, Draisaitl debuted in the NHL, appearing in 37 games during the 2014-15 campaign and scoring just 9 points and finishing with a -17 plus-minus rating.

Thankfully for Edmonton, Draisaitl demonstrated his career trajectory is firmly pointed upwards after an impressive sophomore season in which he tallied 51 points in 72 contests and improved his plus-minus rating to a -2. If he should continue to show that level of improvement, Draisaitl could land in the same territory as Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon each did coming off their ELCs; namely in the range of $6MM annually. Monahan is coming off back-to-back 60-point campaigns while MacKinnon sandwiched a mediocre second season (38 points in 64 games) between a 63-point debut and a 2015-16 almost identical to Draisaitl’s in terms of production (52 points in 72 games). If Draisaitl can produce in the neighborhood of 60 – 65 points in his platform year, $6MM annually may well be within reach.

Tyler Toffoli (Los Angeles) – Toffoli has improved steadily over his three full NHL seasons, seeing his goal totals increase from 12 his rookie season to 23 in year two and finally to a team-leading 31 last season with the Kings. He also led the league in plus-minus rating with a +35.

Toffoli won’t turn 25 until late in the 2016-17 campaign suggesting he has several more prime years remaining. He is entering the final season of a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.25MM and should be in line for a lucrative long-term pact. Two recent extensions signed by RFA-eligible players that could set the bar for a Toffoli deal are the contracts inked within the last several months by Filip Forsberg (six years with an AAV of $6MM per) and Mike Hoffman (four years with an AAV of $5.1875MM). If Toffoli produces season scoring totals in 2016-17 similar to those of this past campaign, he should be able to command something between what Hoffman and Forsberg are earning on each of their respective deals.

 

Snapshots: Cap Overages, Strachan, Rinaldo, Stransky

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CapFriendly released a series of tweets today outlining the teams that suffered cap overages in 2015-16 and will thus feel the effect in 2016-17. Overage penalties are incurred when players with bonus-laden contracts meet the contractual criteria to receive those bonuses. The resulting payout is attributed to the prior season, in which the bonuses were earned, but if the increases put the team over the salary cap for that year, the overage carries over as a cap penalty in the following season. The following teams had players earn bonuses that put the team’s salary cap payroll over the 2015-16 salary cap limit, and CapFriendly has calculated rough estimates of the accompanying penalty against the 2016-17 cap:

Florida Panthers – $1.42MM

San Jose Sharks – $617K

Detroit Red Wings – $550K

Toronto Maple Leafs – $512K

Edmonton Oilers – $322K

Vancouver Canucks – $315K

Tampa Bay Lightning – $314K

St. Louis Blues – $190K

Unfortunately, but also predictably, many of these teams are already struggling with the off-season salary cap crunch, and must also take these overage penalties into account. The Red Wings are currently further over the cap (about $4.24MM) than any other team in the league and already must be considering trading away a significant piece to become cap compliant. The Leafs and Sharks are also right up against the cap, and overage penalties give them even less cap flexibility to maintain compliance. The Lightning currently have over $6MM in cap space, but have yet to re-sign key restricted free agents Nikita Kucherov and Nikita Nesterov, and the last thing they need is yet another reason why they can’t afford to meet the asking price of the pair.

In other league news:

  • Veteran journeyman defenseman Tyson Strachan has signed an AHL deal with the Rochester Americans, the affiliate of the Buffalo Sabres, the team announced today. Strachan has bounced around the NHL and AHL throughout his career, never finding a permanent home at the big league level. The soon-to-be 32-year-old had his best season in 2014-15 though, with five points in 46 games for none other than the Sabres. Buffalo does not have much depth on the blue line at the AHL level, and Strachan seems likely to earn an upgrade to a two-way deal with his former team should the injury bug strike the defense corp in 2016-17.
  • Another player looking to get back to the NHL is the Bruins’ Zac Rinaldo. WEEI’s D.J. Bean caught up with Rinaldo’s agent, Todd Reynolds, who says he hopes to see Rinaldo given another chance this season. After trading a 3rd-round pick to the Philadelphia Flyers last summer to get Rinaldo, Boston was happy with his grit and intensity early in the year. However, as young players pushed for ice time and the Bruins focused more on scoring and fighting for a playoff spot, Rinaldo got into fewer and fewer games. Eventually, he was put on waiver, went unclaimed, and was optioned to AHL Providence in February. Rinaldo was not recalled for the remainder of the season, and now questions what his role is in the organization. While Rinaldo is likely to get the chance to earn a spot in Boston during training camp and the pre-season, the Bruins have several young grinders like Noel Acciari and Tyler Randell who played well last year, as well as young scorers like Seth Griffith, Danton Heinen, and Jake DeBrusk who will look to earn NHL spots. Factor in the additions of Riley Nash and Dominic Moore, and there appears to be very few energy line spots up for grabs. Rinaldo’s NHL future is very much in doubt right now.
  • The Bruins are giving another player whose future was once in doubt a fighting chance, as 2016 NHL Draft pass-over Simon Stransky has been invited to rookie camp. The biggest surprise left on the board in June, Stransky was a point-per-game player in juniors this past season, and is considered by many to be an elite offensive talent who is held back by his mediocre defensive game. However, if an organization that emphasizes the two-way game, like the Bruins, can work on developing his defensive game, his scoring and play-making skill could make him a great value find.

Stanley Cup Odds

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Las Vegas odds-maker Bovada released their odds (listed below) for the 2016-17 NHL season today, as well as the odds for each conference and division. Among the surprises was the inclusion of a co-leader alongside the reigning champion Penguins, as the Blackhawks are odds-on favorites win it all out of the West. The (relatively) high ranking of the Edmonton Oilers is also a shock, as the perennial bottom-dwellers of the last decade were given the same odds as a 2015-16 playoff team team, the Philadelphia Flyers. A mash up of Eastern Conference contenders at the 25/1 mark will also confuse many, as the Metropolitan’s Islanders and Rangers performed significantly better than the Atlantic’s Bruins, Red Wings, and Canadiens last year.

Other than the Blackhawks, who have to battle through a tough division simply to make it to the Western Conference Final, and the Oilers, who have yet to prove they can even remain in the playoff conversation past the holidays, the worst bet may be the Dallas Stars. Although they are coming off a strong 2015-16 campaign, the Stars have severe goal-tending problems, a depleted defensive unit, and a pair of banged-up superstars leading their offense. Dallas seems primed for a regression in 2016-17, and their #5 ranking in the odds is a little too high to be a smart take.

The best bet available? Any of the 16/1 teams seem like a smart choice. The Florida Panthers especially have re-tooled this off-season and likely have only Tampa Bay standing between them and an easy division title. The Los Angeles Kings have won two of the last five Stanley Cups and shouldn’t be counted out, and if they do fail to make it out of the Pacific Division, the Anaheim Ducks seem likely to be the ones knocking them out. The Nashville Predators are a dark horse candidate seemingly every season, and after bringing in P.K. Subban, who projects to be a perfect fit in their system, this could finally be the year that the Preds put it all together. The long shot: how about the Carolina Hurricanes, who missed the playoffs in 2015-16 by a handful of points and have several young players just waiting to break out. With the worst odds of any team, that’s a high-yield bet worth making.

Pittsburgh Penguins    9/1

Chicago Blackhawks    9/1

Tampa Bay Lighting    10/1

Washington Capitals   10/1

Dallas Stars                   12/1

St. Louis Blues              14/1

San Jose Sharks            14/1

Anaheim Ducks             16/1

Florida Panthers           16/1

Los Angeles Kings         16/1

Nashville Predators       16/1

Boston Bruins                25/1

Detroit Red Wings        25/1

Minnesota Wild             25/1

Montreal Canadiens      25/1

New York Islanders        25/1

New York Rangers          25/1

Edmonton Oilers            33/1

Philadelphia Flyers         33/1

Buffalo Sabres                 50/1

Calgary Flames                50/1

Colorado Avalanche        50/1

New Jersey Devils            50/1

Ottawa Senators              50/1

Toronto Maple Leafs      50/1

Winnipeg Jets                  50/1

Arizona Coyotes               66/1

Carolina Hurricanes        66/1

Columbus Blue Jackets   66/1

Vancouver Canucks         66/1

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