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Snapshots: Holtby, Ritchie, Vrana

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Washington’s Braden Holtby will get the start for Game 3 in Pittsburgh. He was yanked after surrendering 3 goals on just 14 shots through 2 periods. Philipp Grubauer didn’t fare much better, however, as he let in 2 of 9 himself in the final period. The decision to pull the reigning Vezina trophy winner was maligned following the game by commentators, such as the Washington Post’s Dan Steinberg who believed the move was “a sign of panic”. Holtby has struggled this post-season, not looking particularly strong in the first series against Toronto. His .911 save percentage these playoffs is certainly respectable but also easily his career low. It’s difficult to believe that his massive workload over the course of the season isn’t playing a factor in his drop-off in play. The netminder played an absurd 63 games this past season, which is difficult to defend from a coaching standpoint. His backup in Grubauer performed well above expectations, helping the duo capture the Jennings trophy. Additionally, the Capitals looked to be a lock for the post-season well before April, so why Holtby was subjected to yet another season of heavy lifting seems confusing. At least he didn’t play 73 games, like he did two seasons ago. One has to wonder if Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Braden Holtby have all succumbed to fatigue to varying degrees, considering their individual struggles come playoffs. Regardless, Holtby will need to improve if Washington hopes to claw their way back into the series on the road.

  • Anaheim forward Nick Ritchie and defenseman Sami Vatanen are both potential options for tonight’s game against Edmonton. Ritchie is out with the flu, and Vatanen has been out with an upper body injury since Game 1 versus Calgary in the last round. Both took the ice for the optional skate this morning, but no further information was provided. Vatanen had been replaced by Korbinian Holzer, who struggled in the season with a very poor 40.4 Corsi For percentage, taking a huge step backwards from the previous season in terms of driving possession. Ritchie had been replaced by Jared Boll, the heavy right-winger who accumulated an abysmal 39.3 CF% on the season – one of the league’s worst – to go along with his 0 goals through 51 games. The re-addition of Ritchie would be huge for a team that has had difficulty penetrating the wall that has been Cam Talbot.
  • Washington prospect Jakub Vrana was scratched last night for the Hershey Bears. The 21 year-old left-winger is crafty with the puck and was projected to be an effective offensive force. The Czech has had trouble adjusting his style to the North American game, however. He was drafted 13th overall in 2014 and had a decent sophomore season when he played, earning 21 games up with the Capitals, notching 3 goals and 3 assists in that span. He was held pointless through 3 games in the Bears’ series against the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Head coach Troy Mann was displeased with his unwillingness to engage physically and defend on the backcheck. His effort level is remarkably low for a prospect which was considered top-tier. Getting scratched at the AHL level of play doesn’t bode well for his future in the NHL, although stranger things have happened.

World Championships: Austria, South Korea Promoted

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Both Austria and South Korea have been promoted to Division 1 play for next year’s World Championships. After a tight and grueling tournament, Korea edged out the Ukraine in a shootout to take the final spot. South Korea will host the 2018 Olympics in PyeongChang, and regardless of NHL involvement, the spotlight will be on their country to make a mark in the hockey world. They apparently will not be outclassed too mightily, as they have steeply improved under the direction of former NHLers Jim Paek and Richard Park. As recently as 2009, Korea was in Division II and they had consistently been ranked lower than 30th in terms of world ranking.

Austria is less of a surprise, as they had been relegated only in 2015. The country boasts successful NHL players such as Michael Grabner, Thomas Vanek, and Michael Raffl. They obliterated Poland in their final game 11-0 to win the tournament, proving definitively that they belong at the next level. The losing-est country in each group at the Worlds will face relegation and take their places in Division 1A. A country being able to compete with the top talent in the world on international hockey’s biggest stage is a huge boost in visibility for prospects and increases viability for its players in terms of acquiring a sizable pro contract.

The major tournament will begin on May 5 and conclude on May 21. As always, Canada and the United States are at a bit of a disadvantage as NHLers tend to opt out of the competition following a grueling 82 games and potential playoff runs. Additionally, some of the best players will still be playing as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue to grind along. Russia, Sweden, and Finland are heavy contenders, and Switzerland seemingly improves every year. The IIHF tournament is a wonderful time to view lesser known adult stars from overseas, and an impressive performance can mean lucrative playing opportunities. The games will be played in Paris, France and Cologne, Germany.

NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

Playoff Notes: Rangers, Ducks, Oilers

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The Rangers could find themselves in a 2-0 hole tonight if they don’t make some adjustments writes the New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis. The Rangers lost game one by the “thinnest of margins” after a fluke from Erik Karlsson sealed a 2-1 Senators victory. Cyrgalis reports that as the playoffs march on and the Rangers continue to compete, the possibility of hoisting the Stanley Cup becomes less and less far fetched. It’s why they have to play with intensity, while the Senators, according to Cyrgalis, are playing a great game of psychological warfare–using positive comments. He notes that Sens head coach Guy Boucher has a degree in sports psychology, and it feels as if they’re trying to lull the Rangers into a sense of security with compliments and by using words like “fear” to describe them. While it remains to be seen how the series goes, the Rangers must continue to build upon the strong play they exhibited against Montreal in order to continue playing into June.

  • LA Daily News writer Elliott Teaford tweets that the Ducks may be without Sami Vatanen, while Kevin Bieksa could be out for the series. The Ducks found themselves on the wrong side of a 2-1 game yesterday, and now trail the series to the Edmonton Oilers 2-0. Teaford also tweets that the Ducks talked a lot about regaining the puck luck they had against Calgary.
  • Meanwhile, Tim Campbell of NHL.com reports that the Oilers feel they still haven’t played their best hockey of the series yet. In an opinion shared by many, the Ducks have outplayed the Oilers but haven’t been rewarded for their efforts. Edmonton stole the first two games in Anaheim, and have a chance to close things out on home ice, thanks to the heroics of Cam Talbot. Connor McDavid, who has an assist in the series, is “adapting” and “adjusting” to the playoffs Campbell writes. McDavid has been shadowed by Ryan Kesler, and while many feel he’s been phased out as a result, head coach Todd McLellan believes his star player has been just fine, drawing penalties and opening up the ice for his teammates.

Chris Drury Rejects Sabres Interview

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The Buffalo Sabres are apparently still struggling to woo a capable general manager, according to Elliotte Friedman. The New York Rangers Assistant GM – and former Sabre co-captain – Chris Drury, rejected the franchise’s attempts to interview him for the position. Drury had been in charge of player development prior to promotion to AGM, and continuing acting as a liaison for prospects and younger players. His efforts have been widely praised league-wide, as the Rangers acquired and developed wonderful college players over the years, such as Jimmy Vesey and Kevin Hayes. Bill Guerin has already been interviewed by the Sabres, and other candidates will certainly be willing to sit down with Buffalo ownership, considering that only 31 head management positions exist in the league. But this rejection cannot be perceived as a positive sign for an organization that has struggled to find strong, capable leadership. After the Jack Eichel  end-of-season presser, rumors surfaced that the phenom did not want to play next season for  head coach Dan Bylsma (an allegation which was adamantly denied by his agent). The rumor was lent some credibility when both the coaching and general manager were quickly dismissed thereafter.

Owner Terry Pegula will now be hunting for his 5th different coach since taking ownership of the franchise in 2011 – coincidentally, the same year that Buffalo last made the playoffs. Buffalo has struggled to attract high end talent, whether it be players or staff. The organization had been rejected by Mike Babcock in favor of Toronto when they offered the legendary coach an opportunity. Bylsma was in essence a consolation prize, and his poor overall record in Bufffalo did nothing to alleviate the memory of the faulty hiring process in the minds of fans. With regards to the GM search, we’ve heard very little chatter around the recently fired Kings’ GM Dean Lombardi in connection to Buffalo, which might be cause for concern. Especially in light of Pegula’s re-assurances that any hires would bring a wealth of experience, it seems as though Pegula is content looking to recently retired NHLers to guide the ship. Although Guerin and Drury have both undoubtedly helped their franchises in different respects (both the Penguins and Rangers are consistent playoff contenders), it seems possible that again Pegula is having to settle for second and third choices.

Whichever GM takes over for the Sabres, they will have their work cut out for them. Although the forward corps is stocked with Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart, and Evander Kane, they still have a need for depth that plays up to capability. Goaltending was no longer at fault this season, and coaches have been swapped out like air filters. If success doesn’t come soon, scrutiny will start to fall more heavily upon ownership. Fans can only endure a rebuild for so long before they expect results.

Snapshots: Bieksa, Stamkos, Pyatt

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Anaheim defenseman Kevin Bieksa is not expected to take the ice in Game 2 against Edmonton. Bieksa had not been logging major minutes lately, averaging just over 16 minutes on the backend, good for 6th best on his squad. However, his nasty, physical edge was felt everytime he took the ice. The defenseman had an awkward looking collision early in Wednesday’s game with teammate Shea Theodore. He left the game, briefly returned, and exited again for good. Further information is unknown at this time.

Bieksa is perhaps best remembered for being a pivotal part of the defense that led the Vancouver Canucks to Game 7 of a Stanley Cup Final in 2010-11. He has played 82 career NHL playoff games, with a solid 30 points over that span. He had already potted 4 assists for the Ducks through 5 games. Replacing such a force will be difficult for Anaheim, especially since they struggled to deter the high-flying Edmonton forwards from creating offense and crashing the net. Sami Vatanen would be a safe bet to re-enter the lineup in his place, in an attempt to recoup some of that experience.

  • Steven Stamkos should be ready to go at the beginning of next season for the Tampa Bay Lightning.  He had undergone intensive surgery on his knee, after tearing his meniscus. Although his return was expected, the reassuring news should bring a sigh of relief for Bolts’ fans. Stamkos’ absence was sorely felt this season as his squad was kept afloat largely due to the individual efforts of Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman. Scoring depth was harder to come by and the team was noticeably less effective at line-matching. Stamkos is the sort of offensive superstar that is nearly impossible to replace, even with a roster that had been as well constructed as GM Steve Yzerman’s. Stamkos has won two Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophies for top goal scorer in a season, including an absurd 60  goals in 2011-12. He had posted 9 goals and 20 points through 17 games this season before succumbing to injury.
  • Tom Pyatt did not play in Game 1 between the Senators and Rangers. The Ottawa forward was hopeful to be slotted in the lineup tonight, but was a late scratch. Pyatt had also missed the deciding Game 6 against Boston in the first round. The undersized fourth-liner had been held pointless through 4 games, and posted a -2. Although his veteran status and feistiness would have been welcome attributes in what is sure to be a tough series, his contributions this season were minimal. His advanced stats show that he is a net negative in terms of scoring opportunities and shots (CF% of 43.6), and his versatility isn’t even much of a bonus, as he only took 49 draws this season, losing the bulk of them.

Babcock, Tortorella, McLellan Finalists For Jack Adams Award

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The Score’s Josh Gold-Smith is one of many to report that the finalists for the Jack Adams Trophy are Mike Babcock, Todd McLellan, and John Tortorella. The award is given to the league’s best coach. All three choices are hardly a surprise.

After a vicious performance in the World Cup of Hockey, Tortorella was expected to be one of the first

Jan 8, 2016; Raleigh, NC, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets head coach John Tortorella looks on against the Carolina Hurricanes from behind the bench during the first period at PNC Arena. The Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets 4-1. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

coaches on the hot seat, especially with a Columbus club few expected to be anywhere out of last place. Instead, Torts and the Jackets responded with a 50-24-8 record, good for third in the Metropolitan Division and 108 points. The Jackets also went on a tear in December, stringing together sixteen consecutive victories and putting the NHL on notice that they were for real. Though they ended up losing to Pittsburgh in five games during the first round of the playoffs, the Blue Jackets certainly made a case for being a threat in the Met and the Eastern Conference.

Babcock left the Detroit Red Wings after the 2014-15 season and joined the Toronto Maple Leafs, an original six team searching for its first Stanley Cup since 1967 and trying to make its way out of the hockey wilderness. Though he said the rebuild would be “painful,” it was a lot shorter than anyone expected. Paced by Calder Award candidate Auston Matthews, Babcock showed why so many teams sought his services, guiding the Leafs to their first playoff appearance since 2012-13, and taking an enormous step in the rebirth of a once dominant franchise. The Leafs were recently knocked out by Washington, but they proved to be a “tough out” and will certainly be a force to reckon with in the coming seasons.

McLellan has been a consistently good coach since taking the reins in San Jose,

Oct 14, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers head coach Todd McLellan on his bench against Calgary Flames during the third period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Edmonton Oilers won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

and after moving to Edmonton, it was expected that he would turn around a franchise seeking a playoff run after being absent for nearly a decade. After missing last season, McLellan steered the Oil into the playoffs, posting a 47-26-9 record, 103 points, and a second place finish in the Pacific Division.

It was the Oilers highest point total since 1986-87, when they had 106 points and won the Stanley Cup. He turned around a franchise annually criticized for not capitalizing on its success despite netting numerous number one draft picks. Though it won’t factor into voting, McLellan has the Oilers in the second round of the playoffs as well.

Photos Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Central Notes: McDonough, Seguin, Nashville – St. Louis

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Chicago Blackhawks president and CEO John McDonough is blunt in his assessment of the Blackhawks to the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus: they were steamrolled. Said to be “steaming” at their quick demise, McDonough is confident that general manager Stan Bowman can improve upon the latest first round exit for the only franchise in the salary cap era to win three Stanley Cups. Though happy with what Bowman and coach Joel Quenneville have done in the past, he tasks the Blackhawk bosses with building upon the talent that’s already there. Blackhawk fans can take solace in the fact that McDonough sees a lot of gas in the tank for a team many think may be worn out, but McDonough says that the organization is reviewing everything to make sure the Hawks fortunes are on an upward trend.

  • The Dallas Morning-News’ Mike Heika answers fans by indicating that the Stars won’t consider trading Tyler Seguin–unless they believe he’s not the right match with Jamie Benn. Heika believes that the Stars are hoping for new bench boss Ken Hitchcock to have a role in making Seguin a dominant two-way center. With an expensive contract, but still only 25 years of age, the Stars aren’t about to give up on the center. He also believes that Seguin will be motivated to take the next step as a player and sees Seguin being “very determined” to improve after fighting through injury the past few seasons.
  • It’s the battle of goaltenders when the Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues meet up in the second round of the playoffs. NHL.com’s Shawn Roarke writes that the goaltending is just one of many storylines as the two Central division foes meet for the first time in playoff action. Roarke sees lead time as another factor, as both teams enjoyed leading their respective first round opponent for long stretches of time. The Tennessean’s Joe Rexrode believes the Predators should win the series,  but is far from issuing a guarantee about it. Rexrode sees St. Louis’ staunch defense giving the Preds some problems while he openly wonders if the inconsistent Predators during the regular season could return for a playoff encore, disappearing just as quickly as they appeared to remind fans why they were preseason favorites. Meanwhile, St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Jeff Gordon echoes a number of Rexrode’s insights, adding that the return of Colin Wilson for the Preds and matching Nashville’s depth serves as some difficulties St. Louis might encounter.

Red Wings Notes: Holland, Prospects, Axel Holmstrom

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Despite being out of the playoffs, Red Wings general manager Ken Holland has been busy. The bulk of Holland’s time has been spent scouting, writes the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. Traveling everywhere from Slovakia to Toronto, Holland is leaving no stone unturned when it comes to retooling the Red Wings after disappointing season. Holland noted that he’s “focused on the draft” and looking “at the kids,” scouring everything from the U18 World Championships to an OHL playoff game between Mississauga and Peterborough. Holland was also busy watching his current crop of prospects, catching the Grand Rapids Griffins games and seeing his farm team open up a 2-0 series lead on Milwaukee.

  • With all the scouting, Holland told MLive’s Ansar Khan that he expects “two or three” Griffins to be on the Red Wings’ roster to start out the 2017-18 season. While Holland wasn’t going to guess on who those players would be, Khan speculates that defenseman Robbie Russo, and forwards Tomas Nosek and Tyler Bertuzzi are possibilities. Bertuzzi seems the surest bet, as the nephew of former Red Wing Todd Bertuzzi got off to a hot start in the AHL playoffs, scoring a couple goals in their latest victory.
  • Speaking of prospects, one to keep an eye on is Axel Holmstrom, who is “turning heads,” according to St. James. Holmstrom, who is not related to former Red Wing Tomas Holmstrom, was a seventh round pick in the 2014 NHL Draft. Griffins bench boss Todd Nelson lauds Holmstrom’s puck handling and vision, but could use some work on his skating. Though he suffered a knee injury earlier this season in Sweden, Holmstrom has impressed in his short time with Grand Rapids. While the plan is to keep him in the AHL next season, Holmstrom could find himself in Detroit sooner should his play continue to impress.

Ottawa’s Expansion Conundrum

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The Ottawa Senators are in for a tough decision come the completion of their playoff run, whenever that might be. Ottawa has a team which is built upon depth and scoring by committee, but each NHL team can only protect 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goaltender – or alternatively, 8 total skaters and 1 goaltender in the upcoming expansion draft. The Senators are in a situation where they will likely prefer to lose a veteran with a large contract. This seems doubly true because the organization is believed to have an internal cap for financial reasons, and will need to clear space in order to hand out hefty raises to Mark Stone and Kyle Turris following the 2017-18 campaign.

Obviously, Erik Karlsson, Stone, Turris, and Mike Hoffman will be protected. Karlsson is a perennial Norris favorite, captain of the team, and one of the best offensive defensemen the game has seen in decades. Stone and Hoffman are the driving forces behind offensive production, and are both on the young end of their primes. Turris has finally, fully come into his own as a number one center, posting  a 27 goal, 55 point season. Considering the price to acquire him (Mika Zibanejad) and the relative value of centers to this team which isn’t too formidable up the middle, Derick Brassard also seems a certainty to stay. Craig Anderson is the obvious pick in net. He’s been an absolute rock that the team has depended on the past few seasons, and this year was simply extraordinary. Cody Ceci is also a rather safe bet, consider minutes logged, age, and his role on the back-end. Marc Methot should seemingly be a core piece to the defense as well, but as we will soon see, his situation is far more complicated. So, in terms of definitely protected players:

Forward:    Hoffman, Stone, Turris, Brassard

Defense:    Karlsson, Ceci

Goalie:    Anderson

That leaves 3 forwards and 1 defensemen, or, alternatively, 2 total skaters to protect. It seems somewhat unlikely (although not impossible) that they will opt for the latter option. If we look at the potential list of who can be protected, there are no easy answers. Up front, Alexandre Burrows seems to have been a solid fit, as he has played well since being promoted to Turris’ right wing on the top line, and his cap hit drops to a measly $2.5 MM going forward. Zack Smith has been a more-than-capable third-line center, and is signed to a cap-friendly deal for four years after this. Bobby Ryan is incredibly overpaid ($7.25 MM) considering his performance this past year (25 points), but has expressed his profound disappointment in his own season to the relative acceptance of the fanbase. It doesn’t hurt his cause that he has been Ottawa’s best skater this post-season by far, leading the team with 7 points through 6 games. Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Ryan Dzingel could also receive consideration for a protected forward spot, but only one is likely to remain unguarded.

In terms of defense, Dion Phaneuf has a bloated contract which would be especially helpful to be rid of. Phaneuf is getting an absurd $7 MM per year , but he is on the “must-protect” list due to his modified no-trade, no-movement clause. The team could ask him to waive, but considering his solid play of late, this is more difficult to conceive. There is also no guarantee that Vegas would be interested in the player. The up-and-coming Fredrik Claesson is exempt from the expansion draft and needs no protection. Therefore, it seems likely that Methot ($4.9 MM) will be the odd man out, as he would likely be exposed in the 7-3 option. This would be a difficult pill for Ottawa fans to swallow, as Methot has arguably been their best shutdown player and he logs a ton of tough minutes.

For a team that has worked so hard to shore up its back-end and add depth up front, there are no easy solutions for GM Pierre Dorion. If you lose Methot, you lose your best defensive defenseman – if you expose a resurgent Ryan, you surrender a creative offensive weapon. Either way, Vegas is likely going to pick one of its integral players from Canada’s capital city.

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