Atlantic Division Snapshots: Radulov, Holland, Larkin, Kempfer

One of the summer’s more interesting free agent signings, winger Alexander Radulov, met for the first time with the Montreal media and Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette transcribed the event. It’s worth a read in full but here are some of the highlights.

  • Radulov talked about how “things change,” as you grow older, implying he feels is a more mature player than the one who left Nashville. Of course Radulov, along with then teammate Andrei Kostitsyn, is notoriously remembered for missing curfew the night before a playoff game in Nashville’s second round series against the Coyotes in 2012. After the Predators were eliminated, Radulov left the NHL to return to the KHL.
  • He addressed where he might fit into the Canadiens lineup and gave an answer typical of a player by deferring to his coaches.
  • Even though Radulov had other options, Florida and Detroit were both rumored to be interested in the skilled winger, his experience as a junior player in Quebec led to him choosing to sign with Montreal.

“We played and we won the Memorial Cup. It was a lot of fun and I saw those fans when they were the happiest people in the world. What can be better than when you make people, fans happy, and that’s the best time.”

Radulov has the skill to be one of the elite offensive wingers in the game and ordinarily securing a player of his ability to a one-year deal worth $5MM would be considered an absolute steal. But given his baggage, no team wanted to go beyond a one year commitment in case it doesn’t work out. Montreal made a similar addition in the summer of 2015 when they signed Alexander Semin to a cheap contract, one which didn’t work out. It’s possible the Radulov signing won’t work out either but it’s a good gamble to take for Montreal given their need for more offensive firepower.

More from the Atlantic Division…..

  • Ansar Khan of MLive opened up his mailbag and answered an array of reader questions. Of particular note was the sense of frustration fans are feeling about longtime GM Ken Holland. Not only is Detroit not considered serious Stanley Cup contenders at this point, there is also the impression that some of Holland’s recent re-signings for veteran Red Wing players will serve to hamstring the club’s salary cap situation in future seasons. Again, there’s plenty of insight in the post so feel free to give it a read in its entirety.
  • Writing for the Sun Sentinel, Harvey Fialkov discusses the upcoming battle veteran defenseman Steve Kampfer faces to make the Florida roster despite coming off a career-best season with the Panthers. Kampfer appeared in 47 games in 2015-16 and told Fialkov that if not for a late-season injury he would have been in the lineup during the playoffs. Florida made several notable additions to their blue line this summer, bringing in Keith Yandle, Jason Demers and Mark Pysyk to add skill and puck-handling ability to the defense corps. Joining the new trio is young superstar Aaron Ekblad. Jakub Kindl and Alex Petrovic round out the top six on the team’s depth chart. Kampfer is going to face an uphill battle to earn playing time but it’s a battle the veteran depth defender is fairly accustomed to.

Retained Salary in 2016-17: Central Division

As a new season fast approaches, it’s always nice to look back and reminisce on years and players gone by. Unfortunately for most NHL teams, those feelings of nostalgia are usually cut short by the realization that some of those past players are still on the team’s payroll. Retained salary is a fact of life in the National Hockey League, as buyouts have become commonplace and retaining a portion of an outgoing player’s cap hit is often a deal-breaker in many trades. Retained salary can last long past the playing days of a former player or can simply be for just one year. One way or another nearly every NHL team has at least one guy who’s still being paid without having to perform. We’ve already examined the Metropolitan and the Pacific; below is a list of all the retained salary in the Central Division in 2016-17:

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Front Offices On Jimmy Vesey

After completing his meetings with team representatives today (which include names like John Tavares, Jonathan Toews and Auston Matthews) Jimmy Vesey will have to decide where he plays his first professional hockey game. TSN spoke with a couple of front office members about Vesey’s future, and they bring up separate but interesting points:

Brendan Shanahan, President & Alternate Governor, Toronto Maple Leafs (link):

He’s had a fabulous college career, and has earned the right to have this kind of interest from this many clubs, us being one of them. People are attracted to his leadership qualities; captain of Harvard, he’s obviously a very intelligent player on the ice and off, and he’s a guy who seems to have the ability to put the puck in the net, so when those types of players come available people line up.

Brian Burke, President of Hockey Ops, Calgary Flames (link):

If you look at the college free agents, they have made a dramatically insignificant contribution to our league. Tyler Bozak might be the best one. Of the 100 or 150 that have signed, most have very little impact. I think this player is going to play, and make a difference. I think he’s going to be a good player..but if you look at that group and the money the league has spent on their contribution, it’s a pimple on an elephant’s butt.

Back in February, when the Nashville Predators still held Vesey’s rights, GM David Poile spoke about his ability and future with the team:

We’ve had him here for our development camps each of the last two or three summers and he’s grown so much as a player and a person. Physically, he’s ready to play. As far as a college hockey player, he’s dominant in a lot of areas; one of them is his skating. Obviously, offensively he’s put up a lot of good numbers, so we truly believe that he can come in and play right away.

It’s clear that not everyone in the league is sold on Vesey’s ability to step in and be a difference maker at the NHL level, but the amount of teams that have taken meetings with him over the past few days would suggest they believe he at least will be able to step in right away. Vesey, or at least his agent Peter Fish, has only said that he’ll make a decision this weekend at some point.

The Jimmy Vesey Sweepstakes Begin

After months of speculation, Hobey Baker winner Jimmy Vesey finally has his wish and is now an unrestricted free agent. The Nashville Predators’ 66th 0verall pick in 2012 is now an unrestricted free agent as of 12:01 AM EST. However, Vesey isn’t expected to sign anywhere until later this week.

Vesey is not the only pending free agent coming out of college, but he’s definitely the biggest name on the list. He’s expected to be able to step right in to an NHL team’s top nine forwards and produce. The Hockey News’ 2016-17 Pool Guide predicted his output at 18 goals and 20 assists in 80 games. Thirty-eight points as a rookie would put him in the same neighbourhood as Sam Bennett, Joonas Donskoi, Robby Fabbri, and Nikolaj Ehlers in 2015-16.

Boston, Buffalo, Chicago, New Jersey, New York Rangers, and Toronto have all been talked about as potential landing spots. Each has certain charms that would entice Vesey. You can read Pro Hockey Rumors’ breakdown of each of those teams here.

Wherever he signs, Vesey will get the maximum allowable rookie salary $925K plus $2.85MM in bonuses for a potential total of $3.775MM per season for two seasons. This means his decision will be made based on the situation of the team, and not money.

Of course, signing college free agents hasn’t always turned out for NHL teams. When Justin Schultz signed with the Edmonton Oilers in 2012, he was expected to be the Paul Coffey of the modern Oilers. Instead, his game stagnated and he was ultimately booed out of town; he was traded to Pittsburgh where he was slotted as a bottom pairing/ depth defenseman. TSN radio host Jason Gregor penned a piece on college free agents at Oilers Nation on Monday, where he quoted an NHL scout as saying “NCAA free agents have become the most overrated and over-hyped asset in hockey”.

It’s not that they’re not good players, the scout told Gregor. It’s that “teams treat them like they are going to be stars. They get into bidding wars and pay them like they are top-three draft picks. It’s crazy,” according to the scout.

Recent college signing Kevin Hayes represents a decent comparable. His two NHL seasons of 36 and 45 points would represent a solid start for Vesey as a future top six winger. That’s an impressive total for a rookie, but not in the first-overall-pick range. Adjusting for the lockout-shortened season and Connor McDavid‘s injury-shortened campaign, the last five forwards selected first overall have scored an average of 59 points in their rookie season. Taylor Hall‘s 42 points represents the low end, while McDavid’s 87-point-pace is the high mark.

More to come…

Off-Season To Date: Central Division

The NHL has entered its seasonal lull where teams are done signing free agents and will wait until training camp to make roster moves. Each team’s additions and subtractions will most likely remain static until the season starts, so compiling moves runs little risk of changing in the coming days. We have already documented the off-season moves of teams in the Atlantic Division and Metropolitan Division, and now we take a quick look cross-conference at the Central Division.

Chicago Blackhawks

Key Additions: Jordin Tootoo, Brian Campbell
Key Departures: Andrew Ladd, Teuvo Teravainen, Bryan Bickell, Dale Weise, Tomas Fleischmann, Christian Ehrhoff, David Rundblad, Andrew Shaw
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $2,490,705
Projected Roster Size: 22
Notes: Another year, another cap-constrained selloff for the Chicago Blackhawks. This summer they managed to find a taker for Bryan Bickell, but it cost them young prospect Teuvo Teravainen. They also signed Brian Campbell to a one-year deal worth $1.5MM—a steal assuming Campbell doesn’t significantly decline this season. The ‘hawks are particularly tight on cap space this year because Artemi Panarin achieved most of his bonuses last year, and the resulting cap hit gets applied to the upcoming season

Colorado Avalanche

Key Additions: Joe Colborne, Fedor Tyutin, Patrick Wiercioch
Key Departures: Mikkel Boedker, Shawn Matthias, Nate Guenin, Nick Holden, Reto Berra
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $1,534,405
Projected Roster Size: 22
Notes: The Avalanche have had a tumultuous offseason. They waged a prolonged standoff with RFA Tyson Barrie before re-signing him to a four-year, $22MM deal, but then lost head coach Patrick Roy as he stepped down due to not having enough control. The Avs did not address their suboptimal possession metrics, nor did they boost their roster traditionally to compete in the historically tough Central Division.

Dallas Stars

Key Additions: Dan Hamhuis
Key Departures: Vernon Fiddler, Alex Goligoski, Kris Russell, Jason Demers, Colton Sceviour
Unsigned RFAs: Valeri Nichushkin
Cap Space: $7,984, 167
Projected Roster Size: 21
Notes: The Stars parted with significant defensive pieces and failed to upgrade its goaltending, but they still remain poised to challenge for first in the Central. They did sign Captain Jamie Benn to an eight-year, $76MM extension, a steep price but one most pundits found reasonable. The Stars still have ample cap room to sign another defenseman—even more if they decide to trade either goalie for a cheaper backup option.

Minnesota Wild

Key Additions: Eric Staal, Chris Stewart
Key Departures: Thomas Vanek, David Jones
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $2,168,909
Projected Roster Size: 21
Notes: Minnesota remained relatively static this offseason, letting Vanek walk but signing Eric Staal to a three-year, $10.5MM contract. The Wild are hoping that having Zach Parise healthy for the playoffs this year will be enough to challenge for the Central Division crown.

Nashville Predators

Key Additions: P.K. Subban, Yannick Weber
Key Departures: Shea Weber, Jimmy Vesey, Carter Hutton, Cody Hodgson, Paul Gaustad, Barret Jackman, Eric Nystrom
Unsigned RFAs: Stefan Elliot
Cap Space: $5,414,166
Projected Roster Size: 23
Notes: The Predators rocked the boat this offseason by shipping Weber off to Montreal for fellow Canadian defenseman P.K. Subban. With the move, the Preds hope to have a stalwart offensive-minded defensemen for the foreseeable future, but give up elite rock solid dependency in return. Overall the move should boost Nashville’s offense and help them take the next step in the Central.

St. Louis Blues

Key Additions: David Perron, Landon Ferraro, Carter Hutton
Key Departures: Brian Elliot, David Backes, Troy Brouwer, Steve Ott, Anders Nilsson
Unsigned RFAs: None
Cap Space: $3,957,083
Projected Roster Size: 22
Notes: The Blues lost talent this offseason after Troy Brouwer and captain David Backes signed elsewhere in free agency. They also traded away goaltender Brian Elliot for draft picks, placing their trust in young Jake Allen. With the Blues’ young guns stepping up last year, the organization must have felt that they could afford to let Backes and Brouwer go. Finally, it was rumored this summer that the Blues would trade Kevin Shattenkirk—in the final contract year—but nothing has materialized to date.

Winnipeg Jets

Key Additions: Shawn Matthias
Key Departures: Grant Clitsome
Unsigned RFAs: Jacob Trouba, J.C. Lipon
Cap Space: $10,018,333
Projected Roster Size: 23
Notes: Winnipeg stayed relatively pat this summer, signing only Matthias to beef up the team’s bottom six. The focus is on what they haven’t done—namely, sign RFA Jacob Trouba to a new deal. Trouba will anchor Team North America’s defense this summer at the World Cup of Hockey, and a good performance could loosen Winnipeg’s pocketbook.

Latest On Jimmy Vesey

11:57am: Speculation is running rampant now, but Adrian Dater of Bleacher Report is hearing that the Blackhawks and Maple Leafs are the finalists for Vesey, and that Jonathan Toews will be present at the Hawks’ recruitment on Monday.  He’s confirmed that Stan Bowman, the Hawks’ GM, has gone to see Vesey skate twice recently. With so many conflicting reports, the “Vesey Sweepstakes” has become the biggest story in the NHL, though he still has to prove his ability at the next level.

10:55am: Mark Divver of The Providence Journal reports that New York Islanders’ GM Garth Snow was in Foxboro yesterday to see Vesey skate. Assuming that most teams at least have some interest in the soon-to-be free agent this doesn’t come as much of a surprise, though it does add some intrigue to the next few days.

9:42am: All offseason, one of the biggest stories has been the upcoming free agency of Harvard forward Jimmy Vesey. After being selected by the Nashville Predators, Vesey would not sign and, after having his rights traded to the Buffalo Sabres a few months ago, will become a free agent on August 15th.  Here’s the latest:

Today, Stephen Harris of the Boston Herald tells us that the Vesey camp has narrowed their list down to six teams that still includes Buffalo. Vesey’s agent, Peter Fish, said:

What Jimmy wants to do is see it through. He’s wanted to go to free agency and he’s going to see it through. There’s about 4-5 teams other than Buffalo that he wants to hear from. And then after that he’s going to make a decision. I think he’d love for the Bruins to be one of those teams. I assume that we will be taking a call from them.

This, obviously, stands in the face of Joe Haggarty’s report yesterday that the Bruins had become an unlikely landing spot for Vesey. Haggarty had a source that said the Blackhawks, Devils, Rangers, Leafs and Sabres had all passed Boston on the list of likely suitors leaving the Bruins to try and make up ground in the next few days.

Fish of course, was at the Beantown Summer Classic when he spoke to reporters, making the addition of the Bruins note understandable. In the Herald piece, Harris writes that one “very-well informed area NHL scout” believes that the Blackhawks, Rangers and Bruins will eventually be the finalists. Vesey will ultimately choose whichever team he wants to play for regardless of money, since each club will likely offer him the same ELC. Fish lends credence to this, with another telling quote:

We’ve looked at depth charts with some teams and talked about them. . . . There’s obviously a lot of thought that goes into it: The city, the coach, the GM, the salary structure, how a team treats their players in the second and third contracts down the road.

Whatever happens, Vesey has a huge reputation to now uphold, as he’s been the belle of the ball this summer. If he struggles – and he likely will struggle at times – fan perception could turn quickly on the 23-year old.  We’ll keep an eye on the situation for the next few days, and look to bring you the news of his decision as soon as it happens – whether it be Monday or down the line.

Roster Crunch: Central Division

Previously, we looked at some of the battles for the last few spots among Pacific Division teams, happening to focus mostly on the third pairing on many teams.  With the Anaheim Ducks leading the way with their glut of young defenders, we’ll head to the Central Division next where there are a few teams who might be contenders to scoop up one of extra Ducks pieces.

Dallas Stars –  It’s not often you see a team lose three of it’s top-four defenders in one offseason, but that’s what happened to the Stars this summer after Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers and Kris Russell all became unrestricted free agents. While Russell has yet to sign, he was probably miscast as the 24-minute-a-night player the Stars used him as down the stretch. They brought in Dan Hamhuis to fill one of the spots, but it’ll be a battle between Jamie Oleksiak, Stephen Johns, Patrik Nemeth, Jordie Benn and Esa Lindell for playing time this year. Because Johns is the only right-handed member of that group, perhaps Julius Honka, a former first-round pick, will make his NHL debut this season as well.

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Salary Cap Report: Central Division

As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.

We’ll complete our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Central Division. Of note:

  • The Central Division has the two highest paid players in the NHL in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. The Blackhawks captain and leading scorer signed matching eight-year, $84MM extensions in the summer of 2014.
  • After June’s blockbuster trade, the NHL’s highest paid defenseman is now in the Central: P.K. Subban and his $9MM cap hit are now members of the Nashville Predators. The Predators also have the highest paid goalie in the division, with Pekka Rinne making $7MM per season.
  • With Dallas captain Jamie Benn signed to a long-term extension already, there aren’t any superstar pending-UFAs in the Central, but veteran scoring wingers Patrick Sharp and Alex Steen are both up at the end of this season. Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin and Ryan Johansen headline next summer’s RFAs.

By the numbers:

Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Atlantic Division, Metropolitan Division, and Pacific Division.

Snapshots: Predators, Strome, Athanasiou

The Nashville Predators are gearing up for an exciting season writes Adam Vingan of the Tennessean. Vingan makes his case for a trio of predictions as the season approaches. He writes that the over/under should be set at 35 goals for Filip Forsberg, but sees him falling short of 40. As for newly acquired defenseman P.K. Subban, Vingan bets that Subban will easily break 60 points. Vingan sees Pekka Rinne‘s as playing better than last season, but cautions that it may not be significant enough to warrant a dramatic improvement. He also points out that it was Rinne’s up and down play that made the Predators inconsistent.

In other NHL news:

  • Arizona Coyotes forward Dylan Strome says he’s done with junior hockey and the timing couldn’t be more impeccable. With the Coyotes buying out the contract of Antoine Vermette earlier today, the path seems clear for the 19-year-old forward. Craig Hagerman writes that the 2015 third overall pick is ready for the next step in his career after posting consecutive 100+ point seasons in the OHL. One of the final roster cuts last Fall, Hagerman reports that another year of seasoning and strong performance has Strome hopeful for a shot with the big club.
  • Speedy Detroit Red Wings forward Andreas Athanasiou isn’t concerned about his starting place this fall the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James reports.  Despite dazzling when given some ice time late in the regular season and then the playoffs, Athanasiou might be an odd man out when the Red Wings head into the 2016-17 season. With the addition of forwards Thomas Vanek, Frans Nielsen, and Steve Ott, roster space is limited, but Athanasiou says that he won’t let if affect him. St. James writes that along with Anthony Mantha, Athanasiou cannot be claimed on waivers. While this may not prove popular with the Red Wings fanbase, Athanasiou seems more concerned about building on last year’s successes.

 

Anaheim Ducks’ Defense Crunch

When the Anaheim Ducks were eliminated this spring by the Nashville Predators in seven games, many pointed fingers at the poor performance of some of the top offensive options. Corey Perry had not scored a single goal, registering a -7 rating in the series, completely erased by a stifling Predator defense group.  The Ducks’ defense, even in losing, were just as spectacular, keeping the Predators to only 14 goals in the series and moving the puck with relative ease from their end.

It’s this defense group though, that may be giving the Ducks’ front office the most headaches this summer, as there are furiously tough decisions to make in the coming months.  Currently, it has seven men deserving of NHL spots, to say nothing of up-and-comers Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour, and NCAA transplant Andy Welinski.

The group consists of Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Kevin Bieksa, Clayton Stoner, Josh Manson, Simon Despres and Hampus Lindholm all solid NHLers, with contracts to prove it.  The group, led by Vatanen, is set to earn $20.65MM next season, not even including Lindholm’s yet-to-be-signed deal that could push $6MM AAV.

While every team needs depth on the blueline, not many can afford to put millions of dollars in the press box every night, waiting for an injury to happen.  While Fowler’s name has been bandied about since the Ducks were eliminated, nothing concrete has come out about Anaheim’s true desire to move him. Indeed, it would be a tough decision to move any member of the group, as each comes with their own strengths.

With Lindholm and Rickard Rakell still to sign, and under $8.5MM to do it, the Ducks will be tight to the cap if they head into the season with all seven blueliners under contract. They also risk losing one of their prized defensemen next offseason, when the Las Vegas TBAs get to pluck unprotected players from unsuspecting clubs in the expansion draft. Bieksa has a no-movement clause, and will therefor be automatically protected, leaving just two more defense slots (or three, if the Ducks choose to go with the eight-skater option and leave a young forward unprotected).

Fowler still seems like the most likely candidate for trade, but there is little doubt that teams would be more interested in the extremely cheap Josh Manson who, while earning only $825K per season, rates well at both ends of the rink and could become a building block for a new team on the right side.

With the pipeline that Anaheim has created, they would do well to leverage it into some help up front. Their current group is getting older, headlined by Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler who will all turn 32 in the next calendar year and are already starting to see cracks form in their production. Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg form a dynamic young duo, but represent the only two threats at forward under 26 years of age for the Ducks going forward.

(Anaheim Ducks’ Depth Chart via Roster Resource)

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