Draft Lottery Can Change Many Franchises’ Futures
A lottery it really is this year.
While the NHL draft lottery always garners quite a bit of attention, some years are just a bit different if the top pick is a game-changer, whether you’re talking about Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews or this year’s No. 1 option. With prospect Rasmus Dahlin listed as the consensus top pick this year, and described by many as having no weaknesses, he is considered to be one of the top defensive prospects to enter the league in possible decades. The 18-year-old defenseman out of Sweden should immediately change the state of any franchise that wins tonight.
With the lottery just hours away, how will each club look if they were to get lucky and win it?
Buffalo Sabres (18.5%) — The Sabres franchise would get a huge boost with the addition of Dahlin plus some badly needed luck that they seem to never have. Already boasting one of the worst defenses in the league and sudden talk that the team shouldn’t consider Rasmus Ristolainen a No. 1 defenseman, the team and general manager Jason Botterrill’s job would get much easier if they can win the lottery.
Ottawa Senators (13.5%) — Winning the lottery should make their tough decision easier as they traded away their top pick in the Matt Duchene trade, which is, fortunately for them, top-three protected. Winning the lottery is a no-brainer as they would take Dahlin who could either join star defenseman Erik Karlsson or allow the team to trade the veteran, knowing they already have his replacement. However, the real issue is they end up in the top three, do they keep the pick or send it to Colorado to avoid giving Colorado an unprotected first-rounder in 2019.
Arizona Coyotes (11.5%) — Despite having the third-worst record in the league this year, the Coyotes seem to be heading in the right direction as they went 19-12-4 in their final 35 games of the season as many of the team’s young players had started to figure things out. What better way to improve on that then to add Dahlin, who could convince fellow countryman Oliver Ekman-Larsson to stay on with the team for many years to come.
Montreal Canadiens (9.5%) — With the injury struggles of aging defenseman Shea Weber and little else defensive help nearby, the team could use the infusion of a franchise-changing defenseman joining the team. With Weber and goaltender Carey Price on huge contracts, a cheap franchise player could move the team in the right direction.
Detroit Red Wings (8.5%) — What better way to finally start the rebuild, then by adding a young, talented defender to join the team. With few defensive prospects on the horizon, the team’s suspect defense could get a huge boost with Dahlin. With the return of Mike Green unknown, and a group of aging veterans, the team needs someone to take over as the face of the franchise.
Vancouver Canucks (7.5%) — The Canucks rebuild is looking better and better with players like Adam Gaudette, Elias Pettersson, Jonathan Dahlen and defenseman Olli Juolevi about to arrive. Throw in Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat and a number of other prospects on the way, Dahlin would only quicken this team’s rise of young players. On top of that, the team is loaded with defensive-minded blueliners and could use an offensive power-play quarterback.
Chicago Blackhawks (6.5%) — While a lottery victory by the Blackhawks might infuriate the rest of the league, the Blackhawks do need to bolster their defensive depth and Dahlin could easily vault a struggling team back into the playoffs as he could take a lot of pressure off veterans Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook.
New York Rangers (6%) — Just started a rebuild and they walk away with a generational talent? While many people believe the Rangers intend to have a quick rebuild and compete for a playoff spot within the next year or two, having Dahlin on the roster would only jettison the team to that goal quicker and putting him alongside Brady Skjei and Neal Pionk along with veteran Kevin Shattenkirk would help stabilize their blueline.
New York Islanders (6% total with 3.5% from their pick and Calgary’s 2.5%) — Perhaps winning the lottery would be enough to convince John Tavares to stay. Regardless, adding Dahlin to their defensive woes would only stabilize a team that has the offense to reach the playoffs. He could be a cornerstone the franchise hasn’t had there since Denis Potvin. Add in the fact that the Islanders also have the Calgary Flames’ pick, the team has a better chance to winning the lottery than quite a few teams.
Edmonton Oilers (5%) — Angry fans might protest Edmonton walking away as another lottery winner, but adding Dahlin to, again, a failing defense would allow a team that already has McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should bounce back to where they left off one year ago. Dahlin would provide the team with the No. 1 defenseman that they currently lack
Carolina Hurricanes (3%) — As the percentage begin to really drop, Carolina would only get richer as the team is already loaded in quality young defensemen and would allow the team to move other defenseman like Justin Faulk and acquire more scoring, which the team badly needs.
Dallas Stars (2%) — The addition of Dahlin along with last year’s third overall pick in Finnish defenseman Miro Heiskanen would make for a deadly combo and that’s not including John Klingberg.
Philadelphia Flyers (1.5% from St. Louis Blues) — Adding Dahlin could put Philadelphia at the same level with Pittsburgh, Washington and Tampa Bay.
Florida Panthers (1%) — The hottest team that didn’t make the playoffs would get a much needed boost if they could hit that 1/100 chance.
Eastern Notes: Flyers Defense, Malkin, Korshkov, Primeau
While the Philadelphia Flyers took a major step this year by reaching the playoffs and showing some success in their playoff series with the Pittsburgh Penguins, it was also quite obvious the team must continue to improve their roster if they want to compete for an Eastern Conference title at some point in the near future. While the team’s stable of forwards looks solid, Philly.com’s Sam Carchidi writes that the team’s defense might be the most important issue on the team.
While the team got some good play from many of their defenders, the team’s lack of depth was critical as players like Brandon Manning and Radko Gudas were exposed as weak links on their defense. Even Shayne Gostisbehere struggled in his playoff series with the Penguins. With Manning not expected back and a reduced role for Gudas likely, finding replacements is critical if it wants to take that next step. The team does expect Samuel Morin to earn a full-time role with the defense, but the team needs more.
With approximately $25MM in cap space, free agency might be the most logical way of filling that need, despite general manager Ron Hextall‘s struggles at signing free agents. However, with players like John Carlsson, Toby Enstrom, Thomas Hickey, Jack Johnson and Ian Cole out there this summer, the team might find what it needs there.
- Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin, who missed the first game of their playoff series and is listed as day-to-day for Sunday’s game, had a successful practice Saturday and will decide tomorrow on whether he’s ready to play with his team up one game against the Washington Capitals. “I feel so much better,” said Malkin (via the Penguins). “We’ll see how I feel overnight. If I play, I’m ready to play. If I play, I need to go 100%. The team won two games without me, great team. They played so hard. If I’m in I’ll try to do my best and make us stronger.”
- Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Yegor Korshkov will not come over to North America this summer like some people originally thought. The 21-year-old wing has signed a one-year extension to remain with his KHL team, Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, according to The Athletic’s Corey Pronman. “The Leafs were OK with my decision but obviously weren’t glad,” said Korshkov (via Igor Eronko). “My position is I should have a leading role in Lokomotiv to leave the KHL. Who knows, maybe in a year I will reach my goal.” Korshkov did improve his goal and points production this year with Lokomotiv, putting up eight goals and 18 assists, but also played 18 more games this season.
- The Athletic’s Mitch Brown (subscription required) breaks down the Montreal Canadiens prospects and how they fared with 2017 seventh-round pick Cayden Primeau leapfrogging to one of the top of the team’s prospect pick. Taken late in the draft last year after possessing the third-worst save percentage in the USHL, the 18-year-old goaltender rebounded with Northeastern University, putting up the best save percentage by an 18-year-old in NCAA history.
Dominque Ducharme Hired By Montreal Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens have hired a top coaching prospect, bringing in Dominique Ducharme as an assistant coach. Jean-Jacques Daigneault and Dan Lacroix will not return to the organization, while goaltending coach Stephane Waite has signed a new contract.
Ducharme has been eyed by NHL teams for several years as head coach of the Halifax Mooseheads and then Drummondville Voltigeurs of the QMJHL. He also has served as head coach of the Canadian World Junior Team for the last three consecutive years, winning gold in the most recent tournament. Praised for his development of young players and fresh outlook on hockey in 2018, he seemed like a perfect fit for the Canadiens as they try to revitalize their NHL program.
One interesting connection that will now made is Ducharme’s familiarity with Jonathan Drouin. The two won a QMJHL Championship and Memorial Cup together in 2013, when Drouin led the Mooseheads with 105 points as a 17-year old. That outstanding year led to Drouin’s third-overall selection in the 2013 draft, a pedigree that he hasn’t been able to quite live up to at this point. Perhaps Ducharme can continue to get the best out of the talented young forward, as Montreal has invested quite a bit into him as a potential leader on the club.
Andrew Shaw Undergoes Knee Surgery, Out Six Months
The Montreal Canadiens are already having injury troubles for the 2018-19 season, and it is still months away. After announcing that Paul Byron would miss up to six months following shoulder surgery, the Canadiens today released news on Andrew Shaw. Shaw has undergone knee surgery and will also be out a minimum of six months, meaning he won’t be ready for the start of next season.
Shaw has struggled to stay healthy in a Montreal uniform, playing just 119 games in the two seasons since they acquired him from the Chicago Blackhawks. GM Marc Bergevin sent two second-round picks to the Blackhawks for Shaw, citing his Stanley Cup pedigree as a big reason for the acquisition. He then handed him a six-year $23.4MM contract, that hasn’t yet paid off for the club.
Contributing just 22 goals and 49 points across two seasons, Shaw was also held scoreless in five playoff games last spring and couldn’t help the Canadiens reach the postseason this year. Though he has shown flashes of offensive potential, he hasn’t been a consistent enough contributor to the squad to make up for the initial cost. Luckily, he’ll have lots of time to turn that around as he’s still just 26-years old and under contract for four more seasons.
The Canadiens have a huge offseason in front of them, and some had suggested that Shaw was a potential buyout candidate to clear some extra room in order to go for a big fish (see: John Tavares) in free agency. That won’t be possible now with him injured, though it was unlikely anyway regardless of his disappointing season.
Montreal Canadiens Sign Alexandre Alain
The Montreal Canadiens have signed undrafted free agent Alexandre Alain to a three-year, entry-level contract. Alain is still playing with the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada in the QMJHL playoffs, where the team has advanced to the semi-finals and leads Charlottetown two games to none.
There is a lot to like about Alain, who has taken strong steps forward every year of his junior career. Initially seen as a future dynamic two-way center prospect, he struggled to create offense in his first few seasons and needed a trade from Gatineau to really find his game. This season he took it to another level, producing 87 points in just 65 games and adding another 19 in 11 playoff contests.
Absolutely one of the hardest centers in the league to match up against, there isn’t a single moment Alain stops working on the ice. His tenacity and willingness to go into rough areas are what have really stood out to scouts, even before his offense caught up with him this season.
Somewhat unfortunately, to stick as a center in the professional ranks there needs to be more than just work ethic. He’ll need to show that he can be a consistent offensive producer—or at least facilitate for his linemates—to ever sniff the NHL, though there is certainly a role for him in the minor leagues as the Canadiens try to find more depth down the middle. Alain was playing as an over-ager in junior, meaning he’ll be heading to the AHL’s Laval Rocket next season.
Rangers’ David Desharnais Headed to KHL
With the New York Rangers in rebuilding mode and the expected full-time roles that are likely to be given to top prospects Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil, the writing looked to be on the wall for veteran center David Desharnais. Now, European insider Igor Eronko reports that the 31-year-old Desharnais intends to continue his career overseas with the KHL.
Desharnais was unlikely to return to New York as he will be an unrestricted free agent in July. He signed a one-year, $1MM contract last summer to help offset the Rangers’ losses of Derek Stepan, who the team traded to Arizona, and Oscar Lindberg, who the team lost to the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft. The team had hopes that Andersson might make the team out of training camp, but also wanted insurance in case the 18-year-old didn’t. Desharnais provided that depth after Andersson was returned to Sweden, and played 71 games, but tallied just six goals and 28 points this season.
While there is no word on whether he has a deal in place, Desharnais has spent most of his career in North America, having only played 16 games during the 2012-13 strike in Switzerland. Desharnais played most of his career for the Montreal Canadiens and had several good seasons, including 60-point, 52-point and 48-point seasons between 2011 to 2015 seasons. However injuries have derailed his career and the veteran has struggled to hold onto his roster spot as the Canadiens traded him to the Edmonton Oilers last season for their playoff run, while the Oilers opted not to re-sign him last offseason.
Paul Byron Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, Out Six Months
One of the only bright spots in the Montreal Canadiens season was speedster Paul Byron, who scored 20 goals for the second consecutive year. Unfortunately, the team announced today that he underwent shoulder surgery and will be out six months. That puts the start of the 2018-19 season in doubt, as six months from now is the middle of October.
That’s a bad start to an important offseason for the Canadiens as they try to crawl back to competitiveness for next year. Byron is an extremely valuable part of their forward group, even if he doesn’t create a ton of offensive opportunities for his linemates. Instead, he’s used as an elite counter-puncher and penalty killer for Montreal, able to stretch defenses out and provide a solid two-way presence for their middle-six.
It seems as though the first month of the season is in doubt, and he’ll almost certainly miss all of training camp. That’s a big loss for the Canadiens, but could also really hurt Byron down the road. He’s headed into the last season of his current contract and scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019. A third straight 20-goal season would look mighty fine as he hits the open market at 30 years old, something that may be out of reach if he misses a full month.
Morning Notes: Pacioretty, Ducks, Couturier
The Montreal Canadiens had a terribly disappointing 2017-18 season, marred by constant trade speculation around their captain and star winger Max Pacioretty. The 29-year old forward escaped the trade deadline with the same address, but could still be on the move this summer. Arpon Basu of The Athletic (subscription required) examines the value Pacioretty holds on the trade market, and in a potential contract extension.
Interestingly, what happens to Pacioretty could be a domino of sorts for the Canadiens offseason. With the team unable to really begin a rebuild thanks to the huge contracts (and strong play when healthy) of Carey Price and Shea Weber, they are expected to be big players in free agency and could go after the top names this summer and next. If they do move their captain, expect a big splash to follow shortly after.
- The Anaheim Ducks are on the brink of elimination again, and Elliotte Friedman spoke with Sportsnet Radio in Vancouver about where they are headed if they face another early exit. Friedman opines that perhaps they’ll start looking at their core forwards and consider changing things up, though points out that all three of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler have no-movement clauses. It would have seemed ridiculous to suggest the Ducks moving on from Perry a few seasons ago, but with him failing to hit the 20-goal plateau for two straight years, anything is possible.
- Sean Couturier was injured in practice yesterday when he collided with Radko Gudas, but Philadelphia Flyers head coach Dave Hakstol says he’s a game-time decision for tonight’s matchup. While this simply could be gamesmanship by Hakstol to hide the severity of the injury, it would be a huge boost for Philadelphia if Couturier has suffered only a minor injury. If he does miss the game, Claude Giroux could slide back to center, a role he played for nearly his whole career before moving to the wing this year.
Rangers Closing In On Swedish Forward Michael Lindqvist
The New York Rangers are already in off-season mode following a disappointing 77-point season that saw them finish last in the Metropolitan Division and trade away several big-name veterans. GM Jeff Gorton and company clearly have at least a restructuring of the team in mind, if not a complete rebuild. With such a process often comes some unique ways of replenishing the talent that is traded away for picks and prospects. While one player already linked to the Rangers this off-season has been KHL star and former NHL standout Ilya Kovalchuk, many have questioned if adding a 35-year-old who thrives when playing with high-end talent was really the right move for a rebuilding team. A new European rumor makes much more sense. According to a Swedish news source, the Kvalls Posten, young Swedish star Michael Lindqvist is nearing a deal to join New York.
Lindqvist, 23, is a sharp-shooting right winger who is coming off a breakout season with Farjestad of the Swedish Hockey League. Although injuries limited Lindqvist to just 33 games in 2017-18, the young Swede still finished third on his team in scoring and had the best per-game production on the roster. In fact, Lindqvist’s 34 points in 33 games was the fourth-best points-per-game rate in the entire league among players who skated in at least half of their team’s games. Lindqvist also added three points in two playoff games for Farjestad, which was a quarterfinalist in the SHL this season.
In speaking about Lindqvist’s contract situation, agent Joakim Persson told the Kvalls Posten that there were a number of teams interested in Lindqvist, but that the list has been narrowed down. Persson adds the Washington Capitals to the list of finalists for Lindqvist’s services, but states that the Rangers are the heavy favorite. Persson says that a decision is approaching and that a deal will be official soon. While there will surely be an adjustment period for Lindqvist, the talented forward is a worthwhile gamble for the Rangers, who will look to reconstruct their roster with as much youth and potential as possible during the upcoming summer and beyond.
Montreal Canadiens Fire AHL Coach Sylvain Lefebvre
The Montreal Canadiens have announced that Sylvain Lefebvre, head coach of their AHL affiliate the Laval Rocket, has been relieved of his duties. GM Marc Bergevin released a statement along with the announcement:
I would like to sincerely thank Sylvain for his loyalty, his hard work and his contribution to the Montreal Canadiens’ organization over the past six seasons with Hamilton, St. John’s and Laval. Challenges are extremely demanding as a Head Coach in the AHL, and Sylvain and his group had to overcome several difficult situations over the years. The decision to remove Sylvain from his coaching duties was a difficult one because I have a lot of respect for him and I consider him to be an excellent coach. I took the time to discuss the situation with Larry Carrière, and concluded that our development team needed a new direction in the head coaching position.
There was little reason to expect Lefebvre to be back, after the Rocket finished dead last in the AHL. The team won just 24 games and allowed a league-high 281 goals. That record came after a twelve game losing streak to finish the season, where the team had obviously lost any spark they once had.
Though the Rocket did supply their parent club with some talented youngsters, there wasn’t a consistent pipeline of support for the team when the struggled with injury. With Montreal still considering themselves playoff contenders, the minor league system has to be better at providing NHL-ready talent when called upon. Much of that falls on the front office, but some part at least sits with Lefebvre and his staff. Laval should get some added depth next season after another year of draft picks graduate to professional hockey, but a new coaching staff will be the ones who develop them into NHL players.