Alexander Radulov And The Eight-Year Ask
After it broke last month on Hockey Night In Canada that Alexander Radulov was looking for a deal up to six-years long, many fans rolled their eyes. Sure, Radulov has had an outstanding season for the Montreal Canadiens in his return from the KHL, but it is never a good idea to give term of that length to a player on the wrong side of 30. Radulov will turn 31 in July, and will likely command upwards of $6MM per season on the open market this summer. It seemed like a bad idea, but many others wanted the team to ignore their hesitation and pay up, hoping that the current incarnation of the Canadiens could compete for a Stanley Cup over the next few years and make it worth it.
Then, when Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet relayed that the six years might actually be the low end of Radulov’s ask, people started to laugh. Eight years? Surely Marc Bergevin wouldn’t give him something like that, not at his age. Today there was a report out of TSN that Radulov’s agent has indeed put forth an eight-year demand to the Montreal front office. While clearly that still just a starting point, and as Friedman puts it “common negotiation strategy is not to undercut yourself, so the first ask is always big,” that does seem like an absurd starting point for a player who would turn 39 a few days after they stop paying him. 
So even if the eight-year ask is a starting point that Radulov is willing to come down from, let’s look at the six year bottom end as the eventual deal he’ll receive. The Canadiens currently have only two players under contract for more than the next four seasons, Andrew Shaw—who will be paid $3.9MM until 2022—and Shea Weber. Weber’s deal, signed under the old CBA, will see him cause a cap-hit of just over $7.85MM each season until 2026. That contract is often pointed to as one of the worst in the league, and it doesn’t look great, but remember that after next year the actual salary paid out drops to $6MM per season from 2018-22, and then down to just $1MM per year for the last three seasons. If Weber declines but the Canadiens need the cap space, they’ll be able to trade him to a team that needs help getting to the cap floor, without costing them much in return.
It’s something to think about with Radulov’s new deal. If structured similarly (though not exactly the same due to harsher restrictions on salary discrepancy), the Canadiens could take on relatively little risk over the final years of the deal, while paying Radulov most of the deal up front. Fans are likely much less worried about the actual salary paid to the player, than the cap-hit down the road. The Canadiens are clearly wealthy enough to do it if they so decide.
Radulov wants certainty, sure, and no-movement clauses are included in almost all the free agent deals around the league. But as we’ve seen time and time again, they are often waived near the end of a player’s career so he can go to a better situation. Radulov would likely be no different, and the Canadiens could move him at the right price. In today’s NHL where the gap between cap-floor teams and cap-ceiling teams continues to grow through salary manipulation, big market teams like Montreal can afford to give out deals that pay a little more upfront to keep their talent around. The smaller markets benefit by acquiring draft and prospect assets when the time comes, and both find parity in different ways.
So when you hear about Radulov’s huge ask, don’t fret. As long as they play their cards right in the negotiating room, they won’t be left with a 36-year old Radulov destroying their cap situation. They’ll just be able to remember a 31-year old playmaker who made their top-line more dangerous than it has been in years.
Morning Notes: Byron, Eichel, Kozun
The rich got richer yesterday, as the Pittsburgh Penguins signed Zach Aston-Reese, arguably the top college free agent in this year’s class. The Northeastern forward led the nation in scoring, and should follow nicely in the footsteps of other NCAA free agents to find success in Pittsburgh. That doesn’t sound like it will be the case for Blaine Byron though, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports the University of Maine star will likely wait to become a free agent in August.
Byron was a sixth-round pick of the Penguins in 2013, and broke out this season as a senior for Maine. With 41 points in 36 games, the small center easily paced his team for the second straight year. Incredible vision off the rush is Byron’s calling card, though he will need to add strength to compete at the next level. He’ll likely have several teams after him in the summer, though it shouldn’t be as insane as last year’s Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes.
- As CapFriendly reports, Jack Eichel triggered a bonus last night when he scored his 20th goal. The Buffalo Sabres forward could receive a $2MM escalator should he finish the season in the top-10 of points per game. He currently sits ninth in the league, meaning the Sabres may face a overage penalty next season. They currently have just under $1.4MM in cap space remaining, meaning the other $600K would be applied as a penalty to next season. While that’s not crippling for a team, it is important to note as the Sabres go into this summer looking to compete next season.
- Brandon Kozun, a former Los Angeles Kings and Toronto Maple Leafs prospect, has re-signed with his KHL team according to Andrew Walker of Sportsnet. The diminutive forward has found immense success in Russia, scoring 56 points in 59 games this season for Yaroslavl Lokomotiv. A team featuring several former NHL players and prospects, Kozun easily led the squad this year.
- The United States Women’s National Hockey Team will boycott the upcoming World Championships, as they fight for equitable support. The team released a statement today through several players, including Megan Bozek, the NWHL’s reigning winner of Best Defender. The team simply wants better financial support for their players who dedicate years of training to the international competitions. According to ESPN, the women are given $1,000 for each of the six months of Olympic residency, and nothing during the remainder of the four years of training. If the US team were to not compete in the tournament, it would be a huge blow. The matchups between Canada and the United States are the big draw for the tournament, and without one of the two powerhouses it will likely be a romp for the Canadians through to the gold medal.
Stars Notes: Nichushkin, Expansion, Honka
When Valeri Nichushkin left for the KHL last summer after having trouble with Dallas Stars head coach Lindy Ruff, the team lost one of its best young assets to a rival league. The former 10th-overall draft pick had put up 34 points in his rookie season, then missed most of the next year after hip surgery but came back with another solid 29 point season as a 20-year old last year. He looked like a star (pun intended) in the making in Dallas, ready to break out over the next few seasons.
Well, breakout he did, just on the wrong continent. With 24 points in 36 games, Nichushkin was outstanding for CSKA Moscow when he was healthy. He is under contract for one more season with the Russian team, but Jim Nill was on the radio today saying (via Mark Stepneski of NHL.com) that he would like to bring him back to North America eventually. The now 22-year old would be a nice addition if they could get him under contract, as they’re likely losing Ales Hemsky, Patrick Sharp and Jiri Hudler this year—not to mention Patrick Eaves and Lauri Korpikoski, who they dealt at the deadline.
- According to Stepneski, Nill also said that he likely will protect Nichushkin in the upcoming expansion draft, something that would complicate things quite a bit. Protecting Nichushkin would leave one of Antoine Roussel, Brett Ritchie, Radek Faksa or Cody Eakin exposed, none of whom the Stars could afford losing for nothing. While leaving Nichushkin exposed isn’t perfect, it would be hard to see Vegas taking a swing at him not knowing for sure if he’d ever come back to the NHL. Perhaps the Stars will work out a deal with the Golden Knights on who to take, as they currently look like they’ll lose an effective player in the draft.
- Julius Honka will be back up with the NHL team at some point, to play another 8-10 games with the big club before the end of the season. The top prospect played 10 games earlier in the season for the team, and has thrived at the AHL level for three straight years. There will be no playoff run for the Texas Stars of the AHL this season, as they currently sit in seventh place in their division with a 27-29-4 record.
KHL’s Bereglazov, Atinpin May Sign In The NHL Before Next Season
In Elliotte Friedman’s latest 30 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, he touches on a pair of names from the KHL that may soon be heading across the pond. Alexei Bereglazov and Viktor Antipin are both currently playing for Magnitogorsk Mettalurg but may be heading to the New York Rangers and Buffalo Sabres respectively at some point in the near future.
Magnitogorsk will play tomorrow night in game four of the Conference semi-finals in the KHL, up 3-0 over Astana Barys in the current series. The team—which includes Alexander Semin—finished first in their division this year with a record of 41-13-6. The two defensemen were a big part of that, ranking second and third in scoring among defenders on the team.
Bereglazov is just 22 and has broken out this year with 19 points in the regular season and six more in seven playoff games. At 6’4″ he has the size to fit into the NHL right away, if someone believes he can adapt quickly enough. Friedman notes that the Rangers should be considered favorites for him this summer.
Antipin is the older of the two at 24 and takes on much more responsibility for Magnitogorsk. Playing well over 20 minutes a night in the playoffs, Antipin has a longer track record of success in the KHL as he debuted in the league at just 19 years old. Standing under six feet tall and around 180-lbs, the Russian defender isn’t as physically imposing as Bereglazov, but contributes offensively at a higher rate. A staple on the powerplay for the past few seasons, he could find a similar niche in the NHL.
Alexander Radulov Out With Lower Body Injury
As the Montreal Canadiens prepare to face the New York Rangers tonight in what very well could be a preview of a first-round playoff series, they do so without star forward Alexander Radulov. Radulov is considered day-to-day with a lower body injury and is out of the lineup tonight. The big winger blocked a P.K. Subban shot in the Canadiens’ last game, and while it was likely much appreciated by new coach Claude Julien, it also is likely the cause of his current absence.
Radulov has had a remarkable comeback season in 2016-17, his first full NHL season since 2007-08, after coming over from the KHL this summer. Criticized at first for giving the Russian enigma a $5.75MM contract, the deal has paid off for Montreal as Radulov has scored 15 goals and added 31 assists for 46 points, just 12 points off his NHL career-high 58 set almost a decade ago with the Nashville Predators. Radulov trails only captain Max Pacioretty in scoring on the Atlantic-leading Canadiens. Offensive depth has been an issue all season for the Habs, but they would have been in even deeper trouble without Radulov. The two sides are rumored to have already agreed upon an extension, but don’t expect an announcement until after the Expansion Draft.
While Radulov rests for the next few games in all likelihood, the Canadiens will get to see what their newly-acquired muscle can do. With a right wing spot opened up, former Colorado Avalanche bruiser Andreas Martinsen will draw into the lineup tonight. Also making his debut is Steve Ott, as he replaces rookie Michael McCarron in the lineup. The latter move may not go over as well as the former, but the new-look Habs will be interesting to watch regardless.
New York Rangers Recall Pavel Buchnevich
Well that didn’t take long. After sending Pavel Buchnevich down to the Hartford Wolfpack two days ago, the New York Rangers have deemed him necessary once again. He has been recalled to the NHL ahead of their game against the Boston Bruins tonight.
Buchnevich scored two goals and recorded an assist in the Wolfpack’s 4-3 victory last night, making it five points in the four games he’s spent in the AHL this season. In his 21 NHL contests, the 21-year old Russian forward has registered 15 points.
Drafted in the third round in 2013, this is Buchnevich’s first year on North American ice. He played in the KHL the past four seasons including alongside Ilya Kovalchuk and several other former NHLers on St. Petersburg at the end of last year. The rail-thin forward has magic hands that can do pretty much anything with the puck, and like other Russian snipers that have come before him has a howitzer from the circle.
Though the adjustments are still being made to the NHL game and ice, Buchnevich should be a good player in the league for a long time. His recall comes after news that Jesper Fast will miss a few weeks after being injured in practice. The Rangers added defense at the deadline, but will use Buchnevich as their forward addition.
Snapshots: Maple Leafs, Sobotka, Spooner
The Toronto Maple Leafs made their intentions clear this season as they added playoff-tested Brian Boyle to the mix for their playoff push. Not expected to compete for the Atlantic crown this year they find themselves just seven points back of Montreal with two games in hand. Kristen Shilton of TSN spoke to Mike Babcock about the addition, and he said the team deserves this. “We’re excited. Lou thought our group had earned the right for us to help them,” Babcock said, before indicating that Boyle will play tonight on the fourth line and help out both special teams.
TSN’s Bob McKenzie thinks that it’s not just Boyle that the Maple Leafs are after, and that they may use their LTIR space to facilitate other deals. The Leafs have a lot of cap space because of the dead contracts they’ve taken on over the past few years, and could use it to gather assets from teams looking to add at the deadline. They have to be careful though, as the bonuses that Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander (among others) are owed on their entry-level contracts cannot be covered by the LTIR space and would count as penalties next season should they put them over the cap.
- McKenzie also detailed the possibility of Vladimir Sobotka turning heads at some point tomorrow, as the Omsk Avangard winger is nearing the end of his KHL contract. It’s not clear if Sobotka would consider coming over after his season ends, but would be playoff eligible. Lou Korac of NHL.com asked Blues GM Doug Armstrong about the possibility, who responded: “Once he gets on our soil, then I’ll talk about him.” The 29-year old Sobotka has been a pain in Armstrong’s side for a long time.
- In a new column from Joe Haggerty of CSNNE, Ryan Spooner spoke out against his former coach Claude Julien and the tense relationship the two shared. Spooner claims that Julien “just didn’t really trust [him]”, and that the two never saw eye to eye on his play style. Spooner has 33 points in 61 games and is well on his way to another 40+ point season before he’s 26. If he’s not dealt in the next few months, he’ll be looking for a big upgrade in the summer on the $950K he’s currently earning.
Maxim Shalunov Could Join Blackhawks This Year
The Blackhawks may have their depth winger already in the system, if Maxim Shalunov’s agent can just convince his KHL team to let the Blackhawks sign him. The fourth-round pick from 2011 is still under contract in Russia, but The Athletic’s Scott Powers spoke to agent Shumi Babaev on Thursday evening and was told there is a chance—even if it is just 10%.
Shalunov left for the KHL after struggling in the AHL and spending most of 2013-14 in the East Coast Hockey League, but has found much more success in his native Russia. The leading scorer on Novosibirsk Sibir, the 24-year old has 19 goals and 37 points in just 49 games. While the KHL is not a perfect predictor for NHL success, it seems as though he’s developed nicely from his days with the Rockford IceHogs.
It’s not a given that he’ll come over to the NHL at all, as his team currently has him under contract until April 30th, and he has said he wants a trade to CSKA Moscow after that if he’s to stay in the KHL. That team can recruit just as well as any NHL squad, as it has with Minnesota Wild prospect Kirill Kaprizov recently. Shalunov’s agent still puts it at 90% that they stay in Russia, but he’ll discuss it with the team and see what he can do to bring him to North America. The Hawks may have just found their top-6 rental winger for the playoffs.
Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild
With the trade deadline now just a week away, we continue to take a closer look at each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?
After slipping into the playoffs last year with less than 90 points and the final wildcard position, only to get punched in the mouth by the Dallas Stars and go home early, the Minnesota Wild needed a change. They’d fired their coach halfway through the season, and were relying on an aging (but excellent) core of Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise and Ryan Suter too much to succeed.
Enter Bruce Boudreau and the kids. After good solid seasons from the young guns a year ago, many of them have exploded to the forefront of the team this season, with Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle, and Jason Zucker all already setting career-highs in points through 59 games. They’re leading the Western Conference by five points and look poised for a deep playoff run.
Record
39-14-6, 1st in Central Division
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$5.20MM – full-season cap hit, 47/50 contracts per CapFriendly.
Draft Picks
2017: MIN 1st, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
2018: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
Trade Chips
Minnesota will almost surely avoid trading anything off the roster that has put them in prime position for a Stanley Cup run, meaning they’ll have to use draft picks and prospects as bait if they want to add anything next week. It’s a shame they don’t have their second-round pick from this season—which they traded to Buffalo for Chris Stewart back in 2015—since they are used so often in rental deals. 
The Wild do however have a fairly stocked cupboard of prospects that could be waived in front of a team looking to get younger. Their drafting the last decade (or longer) though not perfect in the first round has unearthed plenty of talent in later selections. They’ve picked players like Cal Clutterbuck (3rd), Justin Falk (4th), Marco Scandella (2nd), Erik Haula (7th), Darcy Kuemper (6th), Zucker (2nd) and Johan Larsson (2nd) all outside of the first round and found excellent value in each.
If a team really wants to go after youth, they could ask for prospects like Jordan Greenway, who showed off his skills at the most recent World Juniors. Kirill Kaprisov is tearing up the KHL as a 19-year old, and it was recently reported that he’ll play for CSKA next season. Alex Tuch is showing his ability at the AHL level after a dominating NCAA career, and Luke Kunin continues to captain the University of Wisconsin up the college hockey rankings. It would be crazy to trade any of these names for a rental, but if the Wild want to enter the ring of possible long-term upgrades, they have the pieces to do it.
One Player To Watch: F Jason Pominville, who has a big cap-hit and is playing much less due to the emergence of the young guns is a contract that the Wild may look to move out if they’re to make any improvements.
Team Needs
1) Wing Depth – The Wild would like to move Coyle back to center ice if possible, but they’d need a winger who can jump into their top-six to do it. Jannik Hansen has been rumored to be on their radar, but a player like Patrick Eaves seems a better fit. It’s not guaranteed that they’ll do anything, though GM Chuck Fletcher has said that they have some “unproven depth” at forward.
2) Center – The nice thing about having Coyle is that if you can’t find the upgrade at the wing you could always acquire a center instead and leave him out there. Arizona’s Martin Hanzal was quoted today by Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune as saying he wants to stay in the middle even if traded, which would still be possible for the Wild.
Snapshots: Oilers, Eberle, Kaprizov
The Edmonton Oilers are in a position to buy for the first time in several deadlines, but that doesn’t mean they should. Their core is still incredibly young, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl along with a handful of defenders 25 and under. Spending prospect or draft pick capital on a high-priced rental isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but when you’re looking to build long-term success it’s not usually prudent. That’s what Peter Chiarelli thinks at least, in the latest piece from David Staples of the Edmonton Journal. Chiarelli admitted that the group that is winning for the first time in a while deserves some additions, but doesn’t think his front office will be busy on deadline day.
When Chiarelli mentions his offseason moves that are “coming around” he certainly is referring to Adam Larsson, who after a shaky start to the season is starting to turn into the minute-muncher that they’d hoped for. While plus-minus isn’t a perfect stat by any means, Larsson was a -3 through the end of 2016 and has been a +17 since. While a lot of that is dependent on linemates and situations, Larsson has by all accounts started to turn the corner into the excellent puck possession defender they had hoped for. Chiarelli doesn’t think rentals are on the table for his squad, and he might be right. A turned corner by Milan Lucic, another offseason acquisition, would give the Oilers everything they need to make a deep run in these playoffs.
- Darren Dreger of TSN was on the radio this morning and mentioned that a while back teams were kicking the tires on Jordan Eberle, though discussions didn’t go very far. It will be interesting to see whether the Oilers shop him this summer, as they have to pay Draisaitl this summer and McDavid the year after. After moving Taylor Hall last summer, Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are likely targets this time ’round.
- Igor Eronko of Sport-Express reports that Minnesota Wild prospect Kirill Kaprizov will move to CSKA Moscow in the KHL after this season, when his contract is up. Currently playing with Salavat Yulayev, Kaprizov has 42 points in 49 games. The 19-year old winger was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, and would be a big addition if the team eventually convinces him to come to North America. For now, he’ll reportedly go to one of the KHL’s best teams and look to continue his development.