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Minnesota Wild, Eric Staal Have Not Held Extension Talks

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In terms of rental centers that might be available at the deadline, most of the focus has been placed on just a few names. Matt Duchene, Kevin Hayes and Derick Brassard have been speculated on ad nauseam, but a new name may just enter the conversation before long. Eric Staal of the Minnesota Wild opened up to Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription required) for a superb feature that examines how his play has been affected by the lack of contract talks this year, and how the veteran forward knows that the next few games might decide whether he is playing for the Wild or someone else after the deadline. The biggest takeaway from the piece is that Staal and the Wild have still had no conversations at all regarding a potential extension, despite him being in the final season of a bargain three-year contract and scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency on July 1st.

Though it’s obviously impossible to know just how much a team would pay up for Staal’s services down the stretch, Russo asked a few front office executives who all believed that the Wild would not be able to secure a first-round pick for the 34-year old center. Any asking price though is contingent on what the Wild do over the next few weeks, since they currently sit in third place in the Central Division and would be going to the playoffs if the season ended today. Like other teams over the last few years though, perhaps the Wild know that even if they do make the playoffs they’re not going to be able to navigate the field of powerhouses in the Western Conference. The team would be looking at a first-round matchup with the Nashville Predators at the moment, and getting through both Nashville and the Winnipeg Jets seems almost impossible at the moment.

This isn’t a situation exactly like Columbus, where the Blue Jackets must make a decision about whether holding onto Artemi Panarin through the deadline is worth it. Panarin’s potential return through trade would be enormous, and it seems less and less likely that he wants to re-sign with the Blue Jackets at the end of the season. Staal is open about his desire to stay in Minnesota if possible, and if the potential return is just say, a second-round pick, it’s hard to imagine Fenton slapping a for sale sticker on his first-line center.

Still, there’s a reason why Staal still found himself in our Top-20 Midseason UFA Power Rankings. The veteran center brings almost everything that a contender like the Jets, Boston Bruins or Pittsburgh Penguins would be looking for at the deadline, and should have several suitors chasing him in free agency if he reaches it. A recent resurgence has him with 36 points through 49 games this season, just after recording 42 goals and 76 points for the Wild in 2017-18. While a first-round pick at this exact moment may be out of reach, remember how the Bruins ended up paying a lofty price to secure another veteran goal scorer last season. Rick Nash cost Boston a first-round pick and prospect Ryan Lindgren, even if the Rangers did take some salary back in Ryan Spooner and Matt Beleskey. If an arms race does ramp up closer to the deadline, Staal might be the ticket to recouping some of the draft picks the Wild have sent packing over the last few seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Blue Jackets Will Make “Hard Decision” With Regards To Artemi Panarin

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The Columbus Blue Jackets were thrust back into the spotlight last night when Artemi Panarin’s agent came out on Twitter to say that his client would not negotiate an extension before the end of the season. That has basically been Panarin’s stance since the beginning of last offseason, but to have it reiterated so close to the trade deadline has put even more pressure on a front office already facing some tough decisions. Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen didn’t run away from that speculation though, instead calling a press conference to speak with the media directly about the situation. The Athletic uploaded the entire presser, which starts out with a general explanation from Kekalainen:

We’ve said all along that we’re going to make hard decisions if we have to, but our focus is on getting our team better. Making it as competitive as possible for this spring but also into the future obviously. If we have to make a hard decision we will. We like Artemi and would like to keep him, but it’s his right to go to free agency and if he chooses to do so we’ll be knocking on his door July 1. 

Obviously keeping Panarin around for the remainder of this season gives the Blue Jackets the best chance for playoff success, given the forward’s offensive impact every night. Panarin ranks seventh in league scoring since entering the NHL in 2015-16, and has actually performed even better in Columbus than he did in Chicago. His presence makes the Blue Jackets a tough out in any playoff series, but Kekalainen also wasn’t shy in telling reporters that the team is more than just a single player.

I’ve said it before. We love Artemi, but we had 108 points [the season] before he arrived here. We’re going to have a good team even if [Panarin and fellow UFA Sergei Bobrovsky] choose to go to the free agent market. We have some really good core players, we have more coming that aren’t even here yet. We’re going to be okay.

So understanding that Kekalainen believes in the team’s future, it does seem that he would be fine with keeping his free agents through the deadline if the right deal doesn’t present itself. He even mentioned that the team did just that last year, when Jack Johnson and Matt Calvert were both drawing interest. The Blue Jackets kept both and saw them walk in free agency, though neither would have brought back the kind of return that Panarin would if the team decided to sell. It’s just that there might not be a fit for Columbus that helps them this season. Kekalainen understands this, noting that most contenders who are in the market for rental forwards like Panarin are not willing to give up roster players. Instead, they are dealing in futures which isn’t what the Blue Jackets are necessarily interested in.

Columbus has handled the question of whether Panarin or Bobrovsky will re-sign extremely well, not allowing it to affect their on-ice performance so far this season. Even head coach John Tortorella spoke today about how well the two have handled their business, competing hard for the team all season long. Bobrovsky is set to get the start tonight against the Buffalo Sabres, while Panarin will be back on the ice doing what he does best. There’s now fewer than four weeks remaining before the trade deadline and at least the Blue Jackets now know exactly where their star forward stands. Now it’s up to other teams to offer a package that will make it a truly hard decision for Kekalainen.

2019 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: Best Of The Rest

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With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, the All-Star break seemed like the perfect time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2019. These rankings are based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We ran the top-10 yesterday, and spots 11-20 a few days ago.

Today, we’ll look at those names that just missed the cut but will still be interesting options this summer. All of these players were included on at least one ballot, but did not accumulate enough points to crack the top 20.

Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers — Included on two of the four ballots and sitting as high as 15th, Zuccarello would probably make it into the top-20 most years. Unfortunately he hasn’t really been able to take advantage of the increased opportunity in New York this season, recording just 24 points in 35 games through the first part of the year. The versatile forward has always been a reliable presence in the Rangers’ attack, but he hasn’t looked the part of a 20-goal scorer for several years and this year has just 13 even-strength points. A foot infection has come at the worst time for both player and team, as Zuccarello was working on a five-game point streak through the middle of January and was improving his trade stock greatly. A strong finish on a playoff contender could certainly help his free agent market.

Alex Edler, Vancouver Canucks — It’s hard to vote for Edler as a free agent, given how adamant both sides have been about the potential of the veteran defenseman ending his career in Vancouver. Still, he made it onto one ballot all the way up at #14 earning him a place on our honorable mentions. The oft-injured Edler has been good again this year when in the lineup, but is about to turn 33 and has been clear about his desire to stay with the Canucks. If they can’t find a middle ground, there will be teams hoping Edler can find a way to stave off his decline a few more years—look for a deal similar to the ones Ron Hainsey and Trevor Daley signed in 2017.

Robin Lehner, New York Islanders — 15-7-4, .931 save percentage and a 2.02 goals against average. Still only good enough to get Lehner onto a single ballot. The former Buffalo Sabres starter has turned heads this year, but given that he’s only played in 27 games there should still be plenty of doubt over whether he can handle the load. If Lehner continues to find success down the stretch and leads the Islanders back to the playoffs—and perhaps a series win—someone will find the room to make him a starting goaltender offer in the summer. Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello is notorious for finding a premiere goaltender to start as frequently as possible. Whether he believes Lehner can be that is still to be seen.

Derick Brassard, Pittsburgh Penguins — Hard to believe that last season Brassard was one of the most sought after assets at the trade deadline, and now can’t even get on more than a single ballot. A year in Pittsburgh has not been good for the veteran center, as he has recorded just 27 points in 66 games including a dismal performance in the playoffs.  Brassard is obviously not a fit in Pittsburgh, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be interest in him should he reach free agency. The question is how many years is a team willing to offer for a player who will be 32 before the 2019-20 season begins and is likely coming off his worst season in the NHL.

Jimmy Howard, Detroit Red Wings — On just a single ballot, Howard is another player overshadowed by the talent available at his position. A warrior for the Red Wings for parts of the last 13 seasons, it’s hard to imagine that a team will be willing to pay up for a 35-year old goaltender. Re-signing in Detroit as a part-time starter might make the most sense, especially since they obviously value him quite highly. Howard is still playing well enough to take a team to the playoffs, but betting he’ll be able to do that again going forward is a pretty risky gamble.

Anton Stralman, Tampa Bay Lightning — Overlooked for basically his whole career, Stralman was another who received just a single vote. Despite seeming like he’s been in the league for decades, the veteran defenseman won’t turn 33 until August and is still playing excellent hockey for the best team in the NHL. Sure, his game has slowed a bit since he was a 30+ point defenseman, but teams are always looking for right-handed depth on the blue line and Stralman brings over 100 games of playoff experience. If the Lightning can bring home a Stanley Cup it would only further cement his place as a viable free agent option for any contender.

Brandon Pirri, Vegas Golden Knights — It’s not often that a player who has spent much of the season in the minor leagues receives a vote as one of the top free agents, but Pirri has been an unusual case for his entire career. The simple fact is that he can flat out score, has shown by his eight goals and 13 points in 14 games for the Golden Knights this year. No one is going to be handing out a long-term big money deal, but Pirri has done enough work to improve his game away from the puck that there will be interest. That is, if the Golden Knights don’t extend him themselves.

Carolina Hurricanes Extend Jordan Martinook

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The Carolina Hurricanes have reached a two-year extension with forward Jordan Martinook that will carry an annual average value of $2MM. Martinook was set to become a restricted free agent for the final time this summer, and was arbitration eligible. A two-year extension will buy out a year of unrestricted free agency for the 26-year old forward. GM Don Waddell released a statement explaining the signing:

Jordan has really fit in well with our group and provides veteran leadership both on and off the ice. He skates with a relentless energy that epitomizes the way Coach [Rod] Brind’Amour wants the Hurricanes to play.

Martinook came over to the Hurricanes last spring in a deal that saw Marcus Kruger go to the Arizona Coyotes, and has been an effective player for them this season. With 10 goals and 13 points in 50 games, he’s chipped in enough offense to remain in the lineup while providing a physical element to the bottom-six. He’s also been arguably the team’s best penalty killer, a role which he’ll likely hold throughout the next two seasons. Carolina looks like they’ll be losing a physical forward in Micheal Ferland if they cannot reach an extension over the next few weeks, making Martinook that much more valuable if Brind’Amour wants to continue playing that style.

Amazingly, the $2MM cap hit makes Martinook the fourth highest paid forward on the Hurricanes next season only behind Jordan Staal, Nino Niederreiter and Teuvo Teravainen. That’s bound to change once the team hands out extensions to some of their other pending restricted free agents, but shows just how different their group could look next season. With captain Justin Williams scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, the team needs to keep leaders like Martinook in the fold. $2MM per season brings very little risk along with it, given that the Hurricanes are not yet a cap ceiling team.

Artemi Panarin Will Not Negotiate Extension With Columbus This Season

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As much as Columbus Blue Jackets fans may want to be critical of star forward Artemi Panarin for his reluctance to sign a contract extension, at least give him credit for being honest and forthcoming in the process. Panarin has been consistent and open in his feelings about in-season negotiations and his impending free agency and again re-iterated his point today. Agent Dan Milstein released this statement on Panarin’s behalf:

We have informed the team that we are willing to discuss Artemi’s future after the season. Our priority now is to focus on the rest of the season, trying to win a Stanley Cup for the Columbus Blue Jackets and their fans.

Milstein added that there will be no further comment from the player’s side on negotiations this season, as they have made the definitive call to leave contract talks for the off-season. Panarin is well within his rights to want to solely focus on his game and the Blue Jackets’ stretch run this season and previous comments have made it clear that he does enjoy playing for Columbus and is determined to help the team succeed in the postseason. However, it may be difficult for him to accomplish that if he is traded to a different team. That is the risk that he has taken and the choice the team must evaluate over the next month leading up to the NHL Trade Deadline. Although the Blue Jackets look to be playoff-bound again, the idea of both Panarin and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky walking in free agency and leaving Columbus with nothing to show for it is daunting for GM Jarmo Kekalainen and company. Kekalainen declined to comment on Panarin’s announcement this evening, but is likely to speak about the topic soon. It would not be a surprise to see the Blue Jackets at least listen to offers for Panarin, but they face a tough decision of whether to sell off their top scorer and virtually sabotage their own title hopes or potentially lose him in the off-season.

For what it’s worth, Panarin’s statement tonight nor any of his previous remarks ever expressed that he was unwilling to re-sign in Columbus. He reportedly has been happy during his time with the team and has exceeded his production from his Chicago Blackhawks days. Panarin set a career high with 82 points last season and is currently on pace for 95 points this season. Panarin has previously stated that he enjoys playing with several of his teammates, namely young center Pierre-Luc Dubois, and feels that Columbus is built to last. Despite rumors that he is focused on larger, coastal cities, the Blue Jackets are a young, talented team that has just as good a chance of signing Panarin this summer as anyone. Columbus also has the cap space moving forward to meet the market demands for Panarin, the enormity of which could rule out many other suitors. Panarin’s stance of not negotiating in-season should still leave weeks for exclusive negotiation following Columbus’ postseason exit as well, that is unless he succeeds in his goal of leading the team to the Stanley Cup final.

Panarin, PHR’s No. 2-ranked free agent, will be a hot commodity if he hits the open market and the Blue Jackets know that they would hardly be the only team in pursuit. The question now is whether they think they can re-sign him after the season or whether they want to try to win without him during the season. Today’s announcement certainly doesn’t help the odds that Panarin remains with Columbus, but until a decision is actually made by one side or the other, he remains in the Blue Jackets’ plans this year and beyond.

2019 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 1-10

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With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, the All-Star break seemed like the perfect time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2019. Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We ran spots 11-20 a few days ago, and will publish the honorable mentions tomorrow afternoon.

1. Erik Karlsson, San Jose Sharks — Karlsson was the unanimous choice for the top spot and it is easy to understand why. Even after an apparent slow start, the 28-year old defenseman is having one of the most dominant seasons of his career and now has 43 points through 47 games with the Sharks. Acquired for a huge package of assets just before the season began, he makes San Jose one of the most dangerous contenders in the quest for the Stanley Cup. Karlsson has been reported to be looking for a deal approaching Drew Doughty’s eight-year, $88MM extension in free agency and could only sign a contract of that length with the Sharks after this season’s trade deadline. If he doesn’t put pen to paper quickly after the deadline passes though, you can bet 30 other teams—well, perhaps not Ottawa—will be drooling over the idea of adding him in the offseason.

2. Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets — Panarin was ranked no lower than fourth by any of the writers, and that is only because of the other incredible talents at the top of the list. The 27-year old winger is a dominant offensive force that ranks seventh in scoring since entering the league in 2015-16. Once believed to be a byproduct of Patrick Kane in Chicago, Panarin has shown that he can be the one driving the offense even while helping along a rookie forward in Pierre-Luc Dubois. Agent Dan Milstein is set to speak with Panarin one final time before letting Columbus know if he’s willing to negotiate an extension with the Blue Jackets, but looks like he’ll remain with the team through the trade deadline regardless. If the Blue Jackets can’t get him to sign, Panarin could very well cause a bidding war in the offseason that results in one of the biggest winger contracts in league history.

3. Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators — The first of several Senators to grace this list, Stone trailed Panarin just barely in our voting for the second spot. That’s a credit to how far his star has risen over the past few seasons, and how well-rounded his game has become. The 26-year old will be one of the younger players to hit free agency this year and will likely do so after a career-high in points. Already sitting with 50 in 50 games, Stone brings more than just offensive production to the table. One of the best two-way wingers in the league, he routinely strips opposing players of the puck and gives the Senators a chance for a counter attack. He has received Selke votes in each of his four full seasons and will undoubtedly do so again this time around. There’s no doubt that the Senators want to keep Stone around and that he’s willing to listen to an extension offer, but the closer it gets to July 1st the more tempting free agency becomes.

4. Jeff Skinner, Buffalo Sabres — You can understand why Skinner has publicly stated several times that he would love to stay with the Sabres. All he’s done since arriving in Buffalo is score, notching 30 goals through his first 48 games this season. That’s the fourth time the smooth-skating winger has reached the 30-goal plateau in his career, and a mark that is sure to drive up his price to a point where the Sabres may not be able to accept it. Remember that the team already has Jack Eichel locked in long-term for $10MM per season and could be worried about putting themselves in a situation similar to Edmonton where too much of the cap is tied up in a few players. Kyle Okposo’s deal is already looking troublesome and the team will have work to do on players like Sam Reinhart and Casey Mittelstadt after the 2019-20 season. That’s not to say Buffalo won’t fight to keep him though, as Skinner has been a big part of rejuvenating a frustrated fan base this year.

5. Matt Duchene, Ottawa Senators — You would think a 28-year old center scoring at more than a point-per-game rate in his contract year would rank even higher on this list, but there are likely still concerns about Duchene after his actions the last few years, deserved or not. Forcing a trade out of Colorado hasn’t done him any favors as he found himself on a struggling Ottawa team, but there is nothing wrong with his production since arriving in Canada’s capital. With 47 points in 41 games this season he has a chance to break his previous career-high of 70 points, and almost all of his damage has come at even-strength. Always one of the best in the league in the faceoff dot and a responsible enough player in his own end, you can bet a long-term deal is coming for Duchene. The only question is will he sign it with Ottawa over the next few weeks, or does a team spend big to get him at the deadline and try to extend him before the end of the year.

6. Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets — Buyer beware with the first goaltender on our list, as long-term deals for goaltenders over 30 don’t always work out. If there’s a goalie you would want to put your chips on though, Bobrovsky may be it. The Blue Jackets netminder is a two-time Vezina winner who came into this season with a career .920 save percentage and showed his durability with 128 starts over the last two years. This year hasn’t been up to his standards, but there is reason to believe he’ll bounce back in the future. Still, if Bobrovsky is expecting a deal approaching Carey Price’s eight-year, $84MM extension there won’t be a ton of teams lining up for him. Not many can afford to inject that kind of goaltender contract into their salary structure, meaning Bobrovsky will need to find the right fit—or perhaps desperate team—to squeeze that much juice out of his next deal.

7. Joe Pavelski, San Jose Sharks — Just when you think Pavelski might be reaching the age where he starts slowing down, the 34-year old gets off to perhaps the best start of his career. The San Jose captain scored 25 goals in his first 43 games this season and now sits with 45 points through 52 contests. A reliable, versatile forward that can play in basically any situation, Pavelski would also add an incredible amount of leadership and experience to any team in the league. The idea of him leaving San Jose still doesn’t feel right though, especially when you consider GM Doug Wilson’s loyalty to his veteran players in the past. Still, Patrick Marleau left San Jose in the summer of 2017 to chase a Stanley Cup—and $18.75MM—in Toronto and Pavelski would likely draw an even bigger offer from someone around the league. His game won’t last forever, but 194 goals since the start of 2013-14 speaks for itself.

8. Kevin Hayes, New York Rangers — Hayes wants to stay with the Rangers, but the New York front office will have to make a decision on whether he fits into their competitive timeline. If they happen to send him packing at the deadline, you can bet there will be plenty of teams calling. He’s missed time due to injury this season but there is still a very good chance that Hayes ends up with a career-high in points given that he already has 33 through 39 games, and teams are always on the lookout for size up the middle. It’s not that Hayes is a very physical player, but adding a 6’5″ center who can contribute in all situations is basically goal number one for almost any contender. Still, Hayes could very well be a player who gets a little more money than perhaps he deserves, thanks to the huge opportunity he’s had in New York this season during their rebuild.

9. Anders Lee, New York Islanders — Lee arrives on our list in the top-10 given his performance again this season, but it is unlikely that he will actually reach free agency in July. The Islanders have been confident with their approach to an extension with Lee, and felt secure enough to hand him over the captaincy even with just a single year remaining on his current contract. You can bet GM Lou Lamoriello will be putting on the full-court press to get Lee under contract in the coming weeks, but if for some reason the big forward decides to follow John Tavares out the door he’d be a hot commodity. While he might not hit 40 goals this season, there’s still a good chance he will notch his third consecutive 30-goal campaign and with it establish himself as one of the best all-around goal scorers in the league. A big powerplay presence who has demonstrated great leadership in the new-look Islanders locker room, he’s in for a huge raise on the $3.75MM cap hit he’s carrying this year.

10. Tyler Myers, Winnipeg Jets — If it weren’t for Karlsson’s existence at the top of the list, more people might be talking about Myers’ impending free agency. The massive defenseman’s worth is boosted simply by him being right-handed, but he’s also proven to be an effective player for the Jets over the last few years. Though his responsibility and ice time have declined with the emergence of Jacob Trouba, Myers is still young enough—29 in just a few days—to be worth a long-term deal in free agency as a solid top-4 option. The right-handed variety of those get paid big bucks in free agency, making it a tough sell for Winnipeg in a year that they already have so much work to do in the offseason. Simply put, the team likely can’t afford to retain Myers if they plan on extending all of their key restricted free agents, a group that includes Trouba, Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor. If Karlsson is locked up before free agency starts, you can bet a ton more will be written about Myers and where he could possibly fit in.

Philadelphia Flyers Looking To Add Depth

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The Philadelphia Flyers have become the most interesting team to watch over the last few days. Not because of anything spectacular captain Claude Giroux did at the All-Star game, but because of comments coming out of their front office. Just yesterday, Flyers chairman Dave Scott explained that the team will be aggressive in free agency this summer and today GM Chuck Fletcher spoke about their plans in the second half of this season. Most notably, Fletcher explained that he is “trying to make the team better at all costs” and is looking to “add better players and add depth.” Sam Carchidi of The Philadelphia Inquirer put it more simple terms, tweeting that Fletcher made it seem like “everyone is available in a trade except Claude Giroux” before adding that Carter Hart is probably on that hands-off list.

If there is one name to focus on in Philadelphia of course, it’s Wayne Simmonds. The veteran power forward has been on everyone’s mind the last few weeks as the trade deadline approaches, and once again was a key point in Pierre LeBrun’s latest for The Athletic (subscription required). LeBrun makes the case for Simmonds playing for the Tampa Bay Lightning down the stretch, but also notes that Western Conference contenders like the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets will surely check in before the deadline.

It is important to remember though that Fletcher was brought in to make changes to this group, after former GM Ron Hextall was criticized for being too patient. The team has a huge number of top prospects still developing, but hasn’t been able to find the goaltending or defense to really compete in the Metropolitan Division even while they pay Giroux and Jakub Voracek like some of the best forwards in the league. James van Riemsdyk was inked to a huge deal in the offseason but has dealt with injury and inconsistency upon his return to Philadelphia, and the crease has been a carousel of names from the start of the year.

Now that Hart is in place and looks like the goaltender of the present, not just the future, you can bet the Flyers aren’t interested in any sort of rebuild. The team wants to compete right away, and that makes them one of the toughest teams to read heading into the trade season. While they might move out some expiring pieces, don’t think they won’t add as well even with their eyes on next season. Players with a few years under contract could be of interest, especially given the team has only a handful of forwards under contract for next season.

With 14 games left before the deadline and nine of those at home, Fletcher might wait just a little while longer to make sure that there’s no chance of sneaking into the postseason this year. But even if that stretch doesn’t go well, don’t think it’s just going to be a tear down in Philadelphia.

Kevin Hayes Wants To Stay In New York

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When Kevin Hayes signed a one-year contract with the New York Rangers in late July, the writing seemed to be on the wall. The big center was now scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency following 2018-19, and with the Rangers publicly announcing their desire to rebuild last season Hayes could be the next big trade chip to facilitate that dream. After all, the Boston College product had produced 25 goals for the first time in his career and could easily be moved at the deadline if he wasn’t open to a long-term deal. Not so fast though, as Hayes has been open with his desire to remain in New York past this season. In a new piece from Larry Brooks of the New York Post, Hayes explains that he can’t see himself playing for any other team:

…everybody knows how I feel about wanting to stay. I’ve loved my five years here. I love the organization, the guys, the staff, the city, the fans. I really can’t see myself anywhere else. But it’s also kind of out of my hands.

Out of his hands is right, as the Rangers will have to make the final decision on whether their short rebuild has done enough to hand over a big contract at this point. After acquiring a ton of young assets last year for names like Ryan McDonagh, Rick Nash and Michael Grabner, New York is already well on their way to a successful future. Is a soon to be 27-year old Hayes part of that, or just another chip to cash in over the next few weeks?

Heading into the post-All-Star portion of the season, New York sits sixth in the Metropolitan Division with a 21-20-7 record. That’s better than many predicted for them when the season began, and Hayes has been an integral part—if not their best player for long stretches. The center has 33 points in 39 games on the year. That kind of production would certainly be welcome moving forward, but as Brooks points out it would likely need to be on a five or six-year deal worth at least $6MM per season. That’s the kind of money you hand out when you’re ready to compete, not when you’re just looking to develop a young core.

That young core is impressive, too. Neal Pionk, Filip Chytil, Pavel Buchnevich, Brett Howden, Brady Skjei, Lias Andersson, Ryan Lindgren and others all look like they can be the next group that takes the Rangers to the playoffs, and adding more this deadline could make them quite a formidable group. That said, if the team expects to compete next season perhaps retaining names like Hayes and Chris Kreider, who is scheduled to be a free agent in 2020, is more valuable to the team than whatever they would bring back next month. For his part, Hayes hopes that is the decision the team makes.

2019 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 11-20

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With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, the All-Star break seemed like the perfect time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2019. Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We’ll run numbers 1-10 as well as an honorable mention group early next week.

11. Brock Nelson, New York Islanders — If this list had come out at the end of last season, there would be little chance that Nelson would rank as high as he does now. After posting an extremely disappointing 35-point season in 2017-18, Nelson has come back to life under new head coach Barry Trotz and already has 16 goals and 31 points through 49 games. The big center has seen increased minutes since the departure of John Tavares and is thriving in a two-way role, making him an easy fit for almost any team across the league. Nelson will still be just 27 when the 2019-20 season starts and likely coming off a career year. Like the other Islanders on the list, the team will try to retain his services if possible.

12. Jake Gardiner, Toronto Maple Leafs — There are few more divisive figures in Toronto than Gardiner, who has drawn boos from the home crowd at times this season because of his high-risk style. Still, the 28-year old defenseman is logging nearly 22 minutes a night and is on pace for another 40-point season. The analytically-minded may point to his excellent possession metrics and say he should be ranked higher on this list, but his defensive ability and handedness may somewhat stifle his market. Still, defensemen are always in demand and he’ll have no trouble finding a multi-year deal if Toronto can’t find room to fit him into their crowded salary structure.

13. Wayne Simmonds, Philadelphia Flyers — The do-it-all winger is one of the biggest names on the trade market as we approach the deadline, meaning he very well might not make it to free agency if an acquiring team can convince him to stay. Simmonds adds a little bit of everything a team would want, mixing toughness and physicality with real skill around the net and a history of producing on the powerplay. Set to turn 31 before the next season begins and with a lot of miles already on his body, there may be some who are scared off by the dropping point totals the last few years and refuse to give Simmonds a long-term deal.

14. Gustav Nyquist, Detroit Red Wings — Just when you thought you had Nyquist figured out as a 40-50 point winger, he breaks out in the first half for Detroit with 43 points in 51 games. On track to blow past his career highs of 36 assists and 54 points, there will be several suitors that believe he can be that missing secondary scoring piece that costs a little less than the top names. Nyquist has always had a ton of skill and ability, but is this season’s performance just a mirage formed by opportunity and lack of playoff expectations?

15. Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders — It’s something of the opposite story for Eberle, who has failed this season to meet the lofty totals that he has reached with such consistency in the past. After six consecutive seasons with at least 20 goals (not counting the shortened 2012-13 campaign in which he tallied 16 in just 48 games), Eberle is at risk of not reaching that mark in 2018-19. With just 11 goals and 23 points in the first half, perhaps it is simply a buy-in to the more defensive structure of Trotz’ new-look Islanders. He’ll be 29 next season, but the idea of 30-goal upside and a history of clutch performances will certainly intrigue teams all around the league.

16. Ryan Dzingel, Ottawa Senators — While the Senators have turned into a circus over the last year given all the off-ice incidents, it’s easy to overlook the performances from some of their underrated players. Dzingel is the poster boy for that after a 23-goal season went almost unnoticed last year. This year he’s back at it with a little more fanfare, and now has 20 goals and 38 points through his first 48 games. All eyes are on Mark Stone and Matt Duchene at the trade deadline, but if the Senators don’t get Dzingel under contract he could be a valuable addition for any team. The fact that he’ll only turn 27 in March will be appealing to many teams looking for a cheaper option in the summer, but there’s no doubt Dzingel will get a raise on the $1.8MM cap hit he carries this year.

17. Semyon Varlamov, Colorado Avalanche — At the end of the 2014 season, Varlamov looked like he was going to take over the goaltending position in the NHL. He had just finished second in Vezina Trophy voting and fourth for the Hart after going 41-14-6 and posting a .927 save percentage. The Avalanche had certainly found their goaltender—at least so they thought. Since then Varlamov has battled inconsistency and this season has just a .908 save percentage through 31 starts. Colorado has Philipp Grubauer in place and look like they’ll move on, making a soon to be 31-year old Varlamov one of the most interesting names in free agency. Does a team trust him enough to hand over the starting role on a multi-year deal, or will he have to prove himself again in a tandem?

18. Micheal Ferland, Carolina Hurricanes — Ferland had the fortuitous opportunity to get his career on track beside Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan in Calgary before eventually getting moved to the Hurricanes as part of the blockbuster deal last summer, and now faces some tough questions about his future. It looks like the Hurricanes aren’t going to be able to convince him to stay, meaning he’ll head into free agency as sort of a question mark. Though he has 13 goals on the season, Ferland has tickled the twine just twice in his last 20 games dating back to November and has dealt with concussion issues. While he’s an extremely attractive asset at the deadline because of his low cost, investing big money in him this summer could be dangerous despite his relative youth.

19. Eric Staal, Minnesota Wild — It may say 34 years old on Staal’s birth certificate, but he hasn’t played like a declining asset since arriving in Minnesota. The long-time Carolina captain scored 65 and 76 points in his first two years with the Wild and is on pace for another 60-point performance this season. That kind of production from a center long known for his capable defensive play is extremely valuable, though his age will obvious cause teams to pause before handing out the dough. Another trade deadline candidate if the Wild fall out of the playoffs, he’ll have to perform better down the stretch than he did for the New York Rangers in 2016 if he wants to secure one last big payday.

20. Jakob Silfverberg, Anaheim Ducks — It’s been a tough year for almost every Ducks forward and Silfverberg is no exception. With just 19 points through his first 42 games and now dealing with an injury, there’s a chance he may post his lowest point total since 2013-14 when he played just 52 games. Still, a winger that earns Selke votes every season and can chip in around 20 goals isn’t worth nothing and there should be plenty of interested parties come July 1st. A strong second half by the Ducks or a new address at the trade deadline could really give Silfverberg’s market a boost, especially given his history as an excellent playoff performer.

Eight-Year Extension Unlikely For Auston Matthews

at CDT | by 7 Comments

Every year as the trade deadline approaches, teams have more than just swaps on their mind. In order to know exactly what you can go after to push yourself to the playoffs, you need to know how much available cap space you have going forward and what core pieces are locked up long-term. Even teams out of the playoff race have to push to get deals done, or else might end up having to trade an expiring asset. Long-term extensions often happen in the weeks leading up to the deadline, and last season was no different. Consider these deals that were all signed in February 2018:

Lars Eller, Washington Capitals – Five years, $17.5MM

Mikael Backlund, Calgary Flames – Six years, $32.1MM

Erik Gudbranson, Vancouver Canucks – Three years, $12MM

Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Six years, $30MM

Patric Hornqvist, Pittsburgh Penguins – Five years, $26.5MM

It comes as no surprise then that nearly as many headlines are currently dominated by extension talk as by trade talk. In Ottawa, the Senators are desperately trying to get some indication of whether they can keep Matt Duchene and Mark Stone around long-term, or else will be forced to trade both of them. The Columbus Blue Jackets don’t seem to be getting any such indication from Artemi Panarin, but will likely hold on to him anyway given their intention to compete for the Stanley Cup. The San Jose Sharks are in a similar boat with Erik Karlsson, but also can’t even sign him to an eight-year extension until after the deadline passes.

Perhaps the biggest headline generator recently (as they often are) were the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose GM Kyle Dubas told media that the team had made progress on an Auston Matthews extension. While insiders quickly noted that progress in this case did not mean a deal was imminent, there is some reason to believe that Matthews could be one of these February signings.

First of all, the Maple Leafs are another team within striking distance of the Stanley Cup or at least a high playoff seed. Dubas knows that they could compete this season, and getting Matthews under contract gives him more information to make any other trade deadline decisions. Second it would make the summer a lot less stressful, given that the front office also has to deal with new contracts for Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, while also filling the hole left by pending UFA Jake Gardiner. Each of those contracts will take some work, and the Maple Leafs certainly don’t want them to extend into the season again like William Nylander’s negotiation did.

It might be easy to say hand over a blank check to Matthews and let him join the league’s elite with an eight-year extension that pays him more than $10MM per season. Not so fast, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, who writes that both the team and Matthews’ agent Judd Moldaver “see an eight-year deal as extremely unlikely.” The reasoning would be that the Maple Leafs can’t afford to buy out that many UFA seasons given how tight their cap will be going forward. Instead, suggests Friedman, the deal will be for five or six years, buying out just one or two free agent seasons in order to keep the cap hit relatively low.

In reality it actually might be the better move for Matthews too. Though an eight-year deal would certainly put him into the upper echelon of NHL earners immediately, it likely wouldn’t stay that way throughout the entire deal. With the salary cap set to increase again next season and CBA talks potentially changing the salary cap rules at some point down the line, Matthews could be overtaken by less talented peers in the years to come. If he truly believes in his talent—and nothing in his career path to this point suggests he does not—signing his next massive contract after five more seasons makes total sense. Remember that the Maple Leafs center won’t turn 22 until September, meaning he would exit a five or six year deal still in his prime.

While this kind of a deal might make sense for both the Maple Leafs and Matthews, it will be interesting to see whether other teams follow the same path. The Tampa Bay Lightning for instance have a brilliant young center of their own scheduled to hit restricted free agency in Brayden Point, and face similar cap crunch issues moving forward. If Point would be interested in a five-year deal of his own there could be benefits for both sides, though like Matthews it would put him at risk of leaving as a free agent a few years earlier.

If the Maple Leafs are to go after any player with term left on his contract, they need to get some certainty over what kind of cap hit Matthews will bring moving forward. That means Dubas might not be watching his phone waiting for another GM’s number to pop up over the next few weeks, but rather that of Moldaver.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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