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Free Agent Profile: Derick Brassard

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For the third straight year, veteran center Derick Brassard finds himself still looking for a contract well after the free agent market opened up.  Not much has changed for him over that stretch and he remains a depth offensive option for teams to consider in the coming weeks.

Last season, the 33-year-old caught on with the Coyotes just as training camps were on the horizon, inking a one-year, $1MM contract.  Brassard spent the majority of the campaign in a middle-six role, mostly on the third line but moving up to the second when needed.  It’s basically the role he has held for the past few years and the results were pretty much the same.

Brassard’s per game output dipped a bit compared to his 2019-20 showing but still managed to pick up 20 points, putting him in a tie for the player with the most points still standing on the free agent market (Kyle Palmieri had more but is believed to have an agreement with the Islanders).  He has even chipped in on the power play (seven goals over the last two years) and has won nearly 54% of his faceoffs over that stretch.

So why is he once again looking for a contract?  Brassard’s defensive zone play has never been a strong point and while that was okay earlier in his career when he was putting up 40 or more points, teams aren’t as willing to give him playing time with him producing less.  His own-zone performance isn’t going to suddenly improve so these year-to-year deals are likely what it’s going to continue to be for Brassard.

Stats

2020-21: 53 GP, 8-12-20, -10 rating, 12 PIMS, 67 shots, 50.0 CF%, 14:48 ATOI
Career: 905 GP, 194-309-503, -35 rating, 419 PIMS, 1,781 shots, 50.2 CF%, 16:05 ATOI

Potential Suitors

There are a couple of possible types of suitors for Brassard at this stage.  The first is a team that is looking for a bit more depth down the middle and doesn’t want to pay up for someone like Tyler Bozak.  The other is a team with some young centers that wants either an insurance policy or to bring him in to allow one of those pivots to spend more time in the minors.

In the first group, Seattle is down their top center for the first few months with Yanni Gourde out following shoulder surgery and while they signed Marcus Johansson who can fill in down the middle, Brassard, a natural center, could be a better fit.  Montreal lost Phillip Danault with the only replacement down the middle being Cedric Paquette who spent most of last season as a winger.  With an inexperienced group at center, Brassard could replace someone like Eric Staal who was acquired midseason from Buffalo.  Minnesota still doesn’t have a particularly strong group at center, particularly when it comes to offensive upside and Brassard would give them another option without breaking the bank for the eventual Kirill Kaprizov contract.

The second group features teams that aren’t likely to make the playoffs.  Columbus, where his career started after they made him the sixth-overall pick 15 years ago, is firmly in a rebuild and are banking on some unproven players making the jump.  Brassard would be an insurance policy and with Max Domi out to start the year, he could have a lineup spot at the start.  Anaheim has forced some of their younger players in when they haven’t been ready which hasn’t worked particularly from a development standpoint.  Brassard’s presence could allow someone to spend more time with AHL San Diego.  As for Ottawa, they’re believed to be sniffing around for a veteran forward and with Chris Tierney being in trade speculation dating back to last season and entering the final year of his deal, Brassard would be a low-cost option to carry in case they wind up moving Tierney at some point.

Projected Contract

Brassard has made our Top 50 UFA list in the past but didn’t this time around.  He made $1MM last season and $1.2MM the year before.  Another small dip at this stage is likely and a one-year deal for the veteran should check in somewhere around $900K.  At a price tag that could be buried entirely in the minors, he’ll be a low-risk pickup for whoever winds up signing him in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nashville Predators Turning Focus To Mattias Ekholm Extension

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The Nashville Predators locked in Juuse Saros this week to a four-year, $20MM contract, but the work doesn’t end there for GM David Poile. The executive told ESPN radio that the focus will now turn to an extension for Mattias Ekholm.

Now that we’re past the Juuse situation, we’re going to turn our focus now to Ekholm. I actually spoke with his agent yesterday afternoon and we’re going to talk either later this week or next week on that. 

Ekholm, 31, is heading into the final season of his six-year, $22.5MM contract signed in 2015 that turned into one of the best bargains in the NHL. Originally a fourth-round pick in 2009, Ekholm has been a key member of the team’s blueline since 2014 and has averaged at least 22:52 in each of the last five seasons. This year he had 23 points in just 48 games and is part of the reason why someone like Ryan Ellis was deemed expendable this offseason. The Predators moved Ellis to the Philadelphia Flyers in a deal that cleared some cap and added some more young forward talent, but still have Ekholm and captain Roman Josi to anchor the back end.

While Josi is locked in long-term, Ekholm would be one of the top free agents if he hit the open market next summer. An extension would likely have to include a substantial raise on his current $3.75MM cap hit, with a contract like Jake Muzzin’s recent four-year, $22.5MM deal being an easy comparable. The fact that Ekholm will be 32 whenever his next contract begins is a big factor, but he has shown no real signs of slowing down to this point. The Predators have three depth defensemen–Mark Borowiecki, Matthew Benning, and Ben Harpur–all coming off the books after this season, which could free up a little bit of space depending on their replacements. The trio currently combines for $3.8MM.

There’s another big fish in Nashville scheduled for unrestricted free agency after this season though, as Filip Forsberg will be reaching the end of his six-year, $36MM deal. Poile also explained the team’s gameplan on an extension with the 27-year-old forward:

Shortly before training camp we’ll reach out to Filip Forsberg and his camp to sort of get a lay of the land as where Filip’s thoughts are right now. Those are the next two priorities. 

Once again, Forsberg was a driving force behind Nashville’s offense (such as it is), scoring 32 points in 39 games. Incredibly, that was actually the most by any forward on the team despite him missing a good chunk of the season, showing just how important Forsberg is to the team overall. Nashville is basically running it back with almost the same group up front this season after only really bringing back Mikael Granlund in free agency, though several young players should be given a bigger role. Newcomer Cody Glass joins Eeli Tolvanen (who does not yet have a contract as an RFA) and Philip Tomasino as the team’s net wave of forward talent that could really tip the scales toward contending again.

It’s Forsberg though that will need to be the focus in a few weeks, as relying on the development of those young players without a consistent offensive player like him in the mix will be a difficult task. Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene have both been huge disappointments thus far, Viktor Arvidsson was traded this offseason and even Calle Jarnkrok, who finished second among all Nashville forwards this year, was lost to the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft. Losing Forsberg in free agency would create a giant hole up front similar to the one Ekholm would leave on the back end, meaning these two negotiations are extremely important if the Predators want to stay competitive in the short-term.

Free Agent Profile: Nikita Gusev

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A few years ago, Nikita Gusev’s stock was at an all-time high.  After his third straight dominant season in the KHL, Vegas (who acquired his rights from Tampa Bay in an expansion-related trade) was finally able to bring him over to North America by burning the only year of his entry-level deal without him playing a single game.  Months later, they realized they wouldn’t be able to afford him and flipped him to New Jersey for second and third-round selections.

The Devils promptly handed him a two-year, $9MM contract, a sizable commitment for someone who had never played in the NHL before.  Still, it seemed like a reasonable move as they had openings in their top six so he’d have a chance to be an impact player right away.  His first season was pretty good with 44 points in 66 games and while there were some bumps along the way, that’s legitimate second-line production.

Things didn’t go as well last season, however.  Gusev’s role lessened to the point where he was scratched at times and after he cleared waivers and no trade partner materialized, he accepted a contract termination and signed for less money with Florida to get an opportunity down the stretch.  He did well with that, notching five points in 11 games but in the playoffs, he was scratched once again.

At 29, Gusev is certainly still young enough to play in the NHL for several more years and his first season with New Jersey showed that he has the ability to produce in the NHL.  That makes him an intriguing option among those still looking for a place to play in 2021-22.

Stats

2020-21: 31 GP, 4-6-10, -12 rating, 2 PIMS, 72 shots, 57.9 CF%, 14:21 ATOI
Career: 97 GP, 17-37-54, -27 rating, 14 PIMS, 230 shots, 51.5 CF%, 14:35 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Gusev could go a few different ways here, changing the potentially interested teams in the process.  If he’s looking to maximize money, the options will be limited.  But if he’s open to a one-year deal around the $1MM mark (similar to what he did with Florida), he becomes a low-risk option for some cap-strapped teams that are looking to make an incremental gain offensively.

In the first scenario, Buffalo makes some sense as a fit.  There would be an opportunity for Gusev to play an important role, potentially in their top six where he’d have a chance to put up a level of production closer to his first season.  Detroit could use him although he’d be a little lower on the depth chart; the same could be said for Nashville who could certainly benefit from an influx of offense as could San Jose.  In each of these scenarios, a one-year deal would also create the possibility of trying to move him at the trade deadline.  It didn’t work for New Jersey last season but with a better showing and a cheaper contract, the odds of a trade happening would be better by the 2022 deadline.

If he’s willing to sign a cheaper contract, Colorado stands out as an appealing option.  The Avs are typically a high-scoring team and Gusev would add some firepower to a forward group that lost Brandon Saad (free agency) and Joonas Donskoi (expansion) this summer.  Philadelphia has a shot at deploying four lines with decent offensive upside and someone like Gusev would further push them in that direction.

Projected Contract

Gusev ranked 41st on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected one-year, $2MM contract.  That type of contract could be on the table closer to training camp if he wants to sign with a rebuilding team but if he wants to play on a playoff-bound team, he may need to come in closer to half of that.  At that price tag, he could wind up being quite a bargain.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Erik Gustafsson

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Can you remember the 60-point season that Erik Gustafsson had just a few years ago? It seems like a decade has passed since that 2018-19 campaign, when he scored 17 goals and 60 points for the Chicago Blackhawks, trailing only Brent Burns, Mark Giordano, Morgan Rielly, John Carlsson, and Keith Yandle in scoring among NHL defensemen. One would think the 29-year-old could call up any GM in the league and iron out a contract with that kind of upside, but now he sits on the open market without a deal two weeks into free agency.

It’s what Gustafsson has done in the interim that has people worried. He returned to Chicago the next season and had 26 points in 59 games, but was so suspect defensively that he generated just a third-round pick at the deadline for the Blackhawks. His play down the stretch and in the bubble with the Calgary Flames was good enough to land him a $3MM salary for 2020-21 with the Philadelphia Flyers, but still inconsistent enough to limit the term to just one year. Once again he was moved at the deadline, only this time it was for a seventh-round pick from the Montreal Canadiens, directly showing how much his lustre had faded.

Still, you can’t just ignore the fact that Gustafsson has the 25th most points from a defenseman over the last three seasons. He averaged nearly 21 minutes a night over that stretch, and played in 16 of Montreal’s playoff games during their recent Stanley Cup run. There’s still NHL value in the offensive defenseman, even if his deployment has to be carefully determined.

Stats

2020-21: 29 GP, 1-11-12, -1 rating, 0 PIM, 33 shots, 57.2 CF%, 16:43 ATOI
Career: 250 GP, 29-102-131, -4 rating, 71 PIM, 425 shots, 55.6 CF%, 19:35 ATOI

Potential Suitors

The question really is–like with any player left in free agency–whether or not Gustafsson is willing to play for a contract near the league minimum. There are contenders who could use a depth option like him to drive play in certain situations, as long as he’s willing to come aboard cheaply. The Vegas Golden Knights, for instance, still likely need to add a defenseman after trading away Nick Holden, but don’t really have any cap space to work with. The Toronto Maple Leafs also don’t have a very long depth chart on defense, even after adding players like Alex Biega and Carl Dahlstrom. Toronto’s powerplay struggled immensely last season, so perhaps a player like Gustafsson could be used in a part-time role until they trust Rasmus Sandin in that spot.

If he wants to maximize his earning potential though, Gustafsson may be better off pursuing an opportunity on a rebuilding club. The Buffalo Sabres have a motley crew of defensemen heading into the season, with none outside of Rasmus Dahlin really demanding offensive deployment now that Rasmus Ristolainen is gone. Even the Arizona Coyotes, despite bringing in Shayne Gostisbehere, Conor Timmins and Anton Stralman could potentially use another NHL defenseman. The Coyotes have Victor Soderstrom waiting for his chance, but is bringing him up right now the best move for his development?

The issue now is how many teams have already filled out their depth charts. There’s just literally no room on some rosters for the veteran defenseman, meaning it could potentially be a long wait for him this summer.

Projected Contract

Gustafsson actually ranked 44th on our Top 50 UFA list, but even there we projected a one-year, $1MM contract. Even reaching that number may be a challenge at this point in free agency, with teams already cap committed with so many other options. That 60-point season is a distant memory at this point, meaning a deal near the league minimum or even–shockingly–a professional tryout may be in store. The thing is, that actually may be a huge bargain for whoever gets him, as there is still a way to squeeze real value out of what he does well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Alex Chiasson

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Two years ago, Alex Chiasson entered free agency in an ideal situation.  He was coming off his first season with Edmonton and had a career year which gave him considerably more leverage than he had the year before when he hit the open market.  That landed him a two-year deal to stay with the Oilers but things haven’t gone as well since then so the veteran has hit free agency in a different situation than he had last time.

After his first season with the Oilers, it looked as if the 30-year-old was finally living up to the potential he had shown in flashes in his previous stops.  22 goals in 73 games is certainly decent for someone who had largely been a role player up to that point but unfortunately for him and the Oilers, Chiasson was only able to manage 20 goals over the last two seasons combined, spanning 110 contests.

Still, Chiasson stands 6’3 and has shown a bit of a scoring touch with the man advantage, tallying 19 goals over his three seasons with Edmonton.  While he certainly wasn’t a play driver on their power play, he still filled a useful role on it.  Between the size and power play ability, he’s an intriguing depth option for teams even if he doesn’t fill the prototypical style that many teams covet in their bottom six (physical with an ability to kill penalties).

Stats

2020-21: 45 GP, 9-7-16, -10 rating, 33 PIMS, 65 shots, 45.6 CF%, 12:29 ATOI
Career: 564 GP, 101-101-202, -40 rating, 329 PIMS, 798 shots, 48.1 CF%, 13:51 ATOI

Potential Suitors

How much Chiasson wants will largely dictate his market.  If he’s willing to back to playing for close to the league minimum, he becomes an intriguing pickup for some cap-strapped teams that are looking for an incremental boost.  Otherwise, his options will be limited to teams that project to have ample cap space that could also be open to taking a flyer on him rediscovering that scoring touch from two years ago.  For this exercise, we’ll look at the teams with cap space and assume that a cheap deal isn’t on the table just yet.

In the East, the Devils have been quite active already this summer but someone like Chiasson would add some more offensive upside to their depth forwards and they still have plenty of cap space to bring him in.  The Blue Jackets don’t have a lot of firepower in their bottom six and also have ample cap room for the winger.  One of his former teams in the Senators could have a use for Chiasson if they want a younger forward to get some more development time with AHL Belleville as well.

Out West, the Wild should still have enough cap room by the time they re-sign their two big RFAs to add Chiasson in a depth role.  The Predators are currently projected to have some inexperienced players in their bottom six and could use Chiasson as a piece to allow someone to spend more time in the minors.  The Avalanche didn’t really replace Joonas Donskoi and while Chiasson is at a lower level than he is, he’s someone that can move up into the top six at times if needed and Colorado still has a bit of wiggle room with their cap.

Projected Contract

Chiasson ranked 47th on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected two-year, $3.2MM contract.  At this point, landing that contract seems unlikely as at this point of free agency, teams are bargain shopping and won’t be swayed by that 22-goal campaign.  A one-year pact that’s closer to $1MM may be more realistic now and considering his power play production with Edmonton, he could be an interesting pickup for several teams at that price point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Sami Vatanen

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Few defensemen have seen their stock drop as significantly as Sami Vatanen’s has the last couple of years.  Two seasons ago, he was a fixture in New Jersey’s top four.  Even in 2020-21, he had plenty of playing time but had a soft free agent market to the point where he had to take more than a 50% pay cut to simply stick with the Devils.

Last season certainly only made things worse.  Vatanen was dropped to a spot on the third pairing for New Jersey and didn’t fare particularly well.  Widely speculated as a surefire trade candidate at the deadline, the Devils couldn’t find a taker and simply wound up waiving him where Dallas scooped him up.  His role didn’t really change and neither did his performance, sending him to the open market coming off the worst season of his career.

Nevertheless, there is still enough upside with Vatanen that landed him on our Top 50 UFA list for the second year in a row, albeit at a much lower spot this time around.  The 30-year-old saw his production fall off a cliff last season but before that, he had averaged 28 points per game over the previous six seasons.  Sure, his days of being a 30-plus-point blueliner are probably done but something in the high teens/early 20’s is still a possibility; he did that as recently as 2019-20.

Vatanen is also a right-shot defender which is something that many teams are often coveting, particularly at the trade deadline.  He’s someone that can still play on the second power play unit if needed and log 15 or more minutes at five-on-five.  That’s not an exciting profile compared to the player he was but he can still fill a useful role.

Stats

2020-21: 39 GP, 2-4-6, +3 rating, 20 PIMS, 55 shots, 52.3 CF%, 17:01 ATOI
Career: 473 GP, 47-153-200, -5 rating, 212 PIMS, 860 shots, 49.9 CF%, 20:48 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Given that he can’t be commanding a sizable salary based on the year he had, he’s someone that a contending team may be looking to add for cheap now.  Conversely, a rebuilding team could view Vatanen as someone that can hold a spot to allow a prospect to develop a little longer in the minors before looking to move him down the stretch.

In the East, the Blue Jackets don’t have much in the way of proven right-shot defensive depth with long-time fixtures Seth Jones and David Savard departing over the last few months.  They’re not looking to win now but Vatanen’s presence could allow someone like Andrew Peeke to spend a bit more time in the AHL.  Savard’s new team in Montreal still could use a right-shot defender with Chris Wideman currently projecting to be on their third pairing despite not being in the NHL the last two seasons.  Pittsburgh could use Vatanen in the role vacated by Cody Ceci who signed in Edmonton but Vatanen’s price tag would need to come pretty close to the minimum which he may not be willing to do at the moment.

Arizona’s defensive makeover still needs another couple of players and for all of the contracts the Coyotes have taken on, they still have plenty of cap space.  Calgary only has two proven righties on the back end if they don’t want to shift one of Juuso Valimaki or Oliver Kylington to their off-side and could fit Vatanen in on the third pairing.  Vatanen’s original team in Anaheim added some low-cost depth blueliners to contend for a roster spot but he’d still represent an upgrade on those players if they wanted to try to rebuild his value and flip him later on.

Projected Contract

Vatanen ranked 43rd on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected one-year, $1.5MM deal.  At this point, it stands to reason that he’d have taken an offer like that had it been there so he may have to take a further pay cut once again.  If he can bounce back offensively, his next contract, whatever it winds up being, has the potential to be a team-friendly one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Coyle, Forbort Expected To Step Into Top Roles For Bruins

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With the unexpected departure of David Krejci, the unknown status of injured Tuukka Rask, and a shockingly busy first day of free agency that included adding a number of top names, there are plenty of questions surrounding the Boston Bruins and how they may look next season. With so many possible lineup combinations and the team having yet to even practice together once, it would be understandable to leave fans wondering how the team may be structured in 2021-22. However, head coach Bruce Cassidy is not afraid to hint at his plans. Speaking with beat writer Eric Russo, Cassidy was open about who he sees stepping into some of the most important vacancies in the Bruins lineup.

First and foremost on the minds of most is who will step into Krejci’s role as second line center, especially after Taylor Hall was re-signed following stellar production with Krejci and Craig Smith. Well, despite some speculation to the contrary, Occam’s Razor prevails. Third line center Charlie Coyle will indeed get the first shot at centering the second line, as Cassidy called him the “obvious choice”. Coyle may be coming off of the worst offensive season of his career, but the two-way forward will be healthy this season following off-season knee surgeries and will look to return to form, which is a player whose career full-season scoring pace is 40 points. Cassidy notes that with Hall and Smith having experience playing together and Coyle and Smith also having played together, the familiarity that the three would share makes it an easy initial choice as the team’s second line. However, Cassidy does note that free agent additions Erik Haula and Tomas Nosek both play their best at center as well and could be next in line if Coyle is not a fit.

On defense, while some were content with the Bruins’ most frequent top pair of Matt Grzelcyk and Charlie McAvoy, not everyone was convinced. Count Cassidy among that group. The head coach opined that the role may have been asking too much of Grzelcyk. He believes that free agent addition Derek Forbort, who plays a much more defensive and physical style, could in fact be the better match with McAvoy. Cassidy stated that between competing for that role and likely playing alongside Brandon Carlo on the top penalty kill unit, Forbort will be expected to play “big minutes”. Of course, Forbort will have to prove himself worthy, as Grzelcyk has the advantage of being the incumbent. Cassidy noted that Mike Reilly will likely continue to play with Carlo, but that too could change if Grzelcyk is bumped from the top pair.

Elsewhere on the roster, Cassidy firmly stated his support for Connor Clifton as getting the first shot as the regular third pair right-handed defenseman in the wake of Kevan Miller’s retirement. However, he also noted that youngsters Jakub Zboril and Urho Vaakanainen as well as recovering veteran John Moore all have experience playing their off side and will compete for opportunity. In the bottom-six, Cassidy offered a vote of confidence for Jake DeBrusk retaining his starting job as third line left wing, while also advocating for top prospect Jack Studnicka to get a look for a roster spot. With the versatility of additions Haula, Nosek, and Nick Foligno, there are plenty of potential combinations on that third line and there is a high likelihood of a more offensive fourth line in Boston than in years with the overflow of the third line position battle matched with the likes of Curtis Lazar and Trent Frederic. In goal, Cassidy did not just announce free agent splurge Linus Ullmark as the new starter; in fact quite the contrary. Cassidy expects Ullmark and breakout rookie Jeremy Swayman “to compete for the majority of the starts.” While Ullmark was compensated like a starter by the Bruins in both salary and term, Cassidy notes that Swayman will be given a fair chance to “come in and potentially be the No. 1.”

How it all plays out in Boston remains to be seen, but Cassidy did not hold anything back about his thought and plans for the current roster. That should give fans of the Bruins and their Atlantic Division rivals something more concrete to consider as the days tick down to the start of the regular season.

Free Agent Profile: Tyler Bozak

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It wasn’t a particularly strong free agent market down the middle this summer and most of the notable ones signed within the first couple of days of the market opening up.  One of the exceptions is Tyler Bozak and as a result, he finds himself in good shape in terms of trying to find his next home.

The 35-year-old has seen his production dip over the past few years as he has gone from someone logging more than 20 minutes per night with Toronto to playing more of a third line role which is where he best fits at this stage of his career.  He’s also now coming off a season that saw him miss 21 games due to a concussion which certainly doesn’t help his value.

But what does help his value is his two-way ability.  He can log a regular shift on the penalty kill and consistently is well above average at the faceoff dot which is always appealing to coaches.  On the offensive front, he has averaged at least 0.4 points per game in each season throughout his career and actually is coming off his best year in that stat since 2016-17 although with him playing the fewest games in a single season of his career, it’s a bit of a small sample size.

Nevertheless, Bozak can still be counted on to contribute a bit offensively, kill penalties, and take some key situational faceoffs.  That’s not a $5MM profile anymore like his last contract was but there is definitely a role for him to still fill.

Stats

2020-21: 31 GP, 5-12-17, -3 rating, 10 PIMS, 35 shots, 42.8 CF%, 14:55 ATOI, 56.8% faceoffs

Career: 764 GP, 167-282-449, -84 rating, 222 PIMS, 1,268 shots, 48.9 CF%, 17:47 ATOI, 53.8% faceoffs

Potential Suitors

Teams looking for an upgrade on the third line or a veteran to insulate some younger options should have some interest in Bozak.  That’s a relatively specific role to fill but one that makes sense for prospective contenders as well as rebuilding teams that could use him for a few months and then flip him to a contender closer to the trade deadline.

In the East, Montreal lost Phillip Danault to Los Angeles in free agency, their two top centers are currently 21 years old, and their likely third line pivot in Jake Evans has less than a full year of NHL games under his belt including playoffs.  Bozak would fit as some veteran insurance for the youngsters while replacing Danault’s situational faceoff role.  Boston hasn’t replaced David Krejci down the middle and while Bozak wouldn’t be a direct replacement, he’d give them some depth but making it work on the salary cap would be a challenge.  The Rangers could opt to put Filip Chytil back on the wing which would open up a spot on the third line for Bozak and a one-year term fits with the pricey contracts that are on the horizon a year from now.  Florida makes some sense as well with Bozak filling the role vacated by Alexander Wennberg but they need to get Sam Reinhart re-signed first to see what money they have left.

Out West, St. Louis still makes plenty of sense for Bozak aside from their cap situation.  If they can find a taker for Vladimir Tarasenko, the move would likely free up enough space to bring back Bozak to fill the same role on the depth chart he had last season.  If Colorado is opening to spending right to the Upper Limit in the offseason, Bozak would certainly fit on their third line although there’s definitely risk to being capped out that early.  Just ask Vegas about that; they could use Bozak and have LTIR room to add him into although getting back into compliance when Alex Tuch is ready to return would put them right back where they were last season in terms of dancing around the cap.  Nashville certainly has the cap space and an opening to add Bozak but if they’re heading towards something resembling a rebuild, it may not be the best fit.

Projected Contract

Bozak ranked 35th on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected one-year deal with a base salary of $2.5MM and $1MM in performance bonuses.  (As Bozak is 35, he’s eligible for a contract with incentives as long as it’s a one-year agreement.)  There are enough spots for him to command that price tag but if he wants to go to a contender, he may have to take a lesser deal or at least push more of the guaranteed money into incentives to give the signing team the flexibility to get a deal done.  At this point in free agency, Bozak is the best option left among middlemen and unless he plans to wait out the Tarasenko situation, he should sign his next contract fairly soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Clearance Section: Finding Value In What’s Left

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The 2021 free agent frenzy is over. After more than a billion dollars was signed away in just a few days, the NHL unrestricted free agent market has dried up almost entirely. When Ryan Murray settled for a one-year, $2MM contract with the Colorado Avalanche yesterday, he became the only real UFA deal of significance since the calendar turned to August.

Even though things are almost picked clean, there still may be some value out there for a savvy NHL front office. Twelve players from our Top 50 UFA list are still unsigned for next season, though several of those are expected to be in agreement with the New York Islanders and others like Tuukka Rask are unlikely to make a decision anytime soon. We profiled Tomas Tatar recently–arguably the best player still available–and will continue to do the same for the other names from that list in the coming days.

But even beyond those players, there is still NHL talent out there, waiting for the right opportunity (or big enough paycheck). A few of the notable free agents that didn’t make our Top 50 list, but remain unsigned:

Ryan Donato – A second-round pick, a Hobey Baker finalist, an Olympian. All things to describe the 25-year-old Donato, who was cut loose by the San Jose Sharks this summer after just one season with the team. The Sharks decided not to issue Donato a qualifying offer that would have allowed him to elect salary arbitration, putting him on the market after a frustratingly inconsistent season. In 50 games, he scored just six goals and 20 points, but then went to the IIHF World Championship and won a bronze medal. Of note, Donato’s most common linemates this season were John Leonard and Dylan Gambrell, who have a combined 36 points in the NHL. Perhaps in the right situation, he can rediscover the scoring magic that helped him explode onto the scene in Boston just a few years ago.

Jason Demers – Is Demers finished at age-33? The veteran right-handed defenseman certainly seems like a player that could be one of the bargains of free agency, even if his play has declined over the last few years. With the Arizona Coyotes this season he averaged the fewest minutes since his rookie season, but still likely could provide some value to a contender as a depth option. There’s almost no offense left, as Demers registered just four points in 41 games this season, but he can still contribute as a bottom-pairing option, even killing penalties at times.

Alex Galchenyuk – Just a few months ago there was plenty of excitement around Galchenyuk, who had seemingly turned his career around in Toronto. The 27-year-old forward was pulled off the scrap heap by the Maple Leafs and spent time with the team’s development staff rebuilding his game. In 26 contests down the stretch he scored 12 points, and offensively was actually one of the team’s bright spots in the playoffs with four points in six games (and, one brutal turnover). There are certainly plenty of red flags in Galchenyuk’s career, but one-time 30-goal scorers who recently showed flashes of their former self are usually snapped up quickly by rebuilding teams that want to complete a pump-and-dump–give them huge minutes during the first half just to flip for future assets at the deadline.

Erik Gudbranson – You won’t find many statistical defenses of Gudbranson, who has been carved up by the analytics community since basically the moment he arrived in the NHL. The thing is, that arrival was a decade ago now and you can’t find a ton of 29-year-old free agents with as much experience as the 6’5″ defenseman. There’s no reason to think he can play in a top-four, or perhaps even be a regular contributor, but there’s something to be said for the strong play he experienced down the stretch in 2019 with the Pittsburgh Penguins. In the right situation, surrounded by the right amount of talent and deployed properly, there is still a place for Gudbranson in the NHL.

There are plenty of other names that could end up on an NHL roster next season. At this time of the year none of the signings are going to dramatically change the makeup of a team, but as contending teams have shown year after year in the playoffs, adding depth at the right spots–even players that have struggled elsewhere–can make a difference at the right moment.

Free Agent Profile: Tomas Tatar

at CDT | by 6 Comments

As things start to settle down after a whirlwind first few days of free agency, teams around the league will be taking stock of who is still out there and looking at where those players could possibly fit in.  One of the players that several teams will certainly be considering is Tomas Tatar.

His case has been a strange one to follow over the years.  Go back to 2018 and his stock was on the rise.  He was coming off four straight years of 19 goals or more and was the big addition by Vegas at the trade deadline.  The hope was that Tatar would give their offense a boost as they went on a long playoff run.  They had the long run but Tatar did so little that he was a healthy scratch for more than half of it.  Months later, his stock much lower, he was included as salary ballast in a trade to Montreal with Vegas paying down a small portion of his contract.

With the Canadiens, Tatar rebounded, putting up 25 and 22 goals in his first two seasons with the team and his stock was on the rise again.  Again, however, that changed fairly quickly.  His numbers dipped last season to just 10 goals and 20 assists in 50 games, still decent but he spent a good chunk of the year on their top line while posting strong possession numbers.  By the end of it, he was back in the press box periodically and in the playoffs, he suited up in just five of 22 games.

How should Tatar be viewed?  It’s one of those glass half-full or half-empty situations.  On the one hand, here’s a player that coming into 2020-21 had seven straight years of 19 or more goals which is legitimate consistent top-six production on a lot of teams.  On the other hand, two teams now have seen fit to bench him for extended periods of time during a run to the Stanley Cup Final.  Those true but vastly diverse points make him a particularly intriguing free agent.

Stats

2020-21: 50 GP, 10-20-30, even rating, 8 PIMS, 82 shots, 58.9 CF%, 14:59 ATOI

Career: 625 GP, 176-201-377, +23 rating, 224 PIMS, 1,351 shots, 56.9 CF%, 15:36 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Who has a vacancy on the left wing in their top six and some cap space at their disposal?  Even with the recent poor playoff performances, Tatar should have enough of a regular season track record to generate interest from several teams.

In the East, New Jersey has the green light to spend and already made a big splash on the back end in Dougie Hamilton.  But they haven’t been able to do much of anything up front and Tatar would certainly give them a boost on the wing to work with one of their young centers in Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier.  Tatar would fill a hole in Buffalo although the Sabres aren’t a team that appears to be trying to win much next season but on a short-term trade, he could be a sign and flip option.  There is plenty of secrecy around the Islanders who have been linked to Kyle Palmieri and Zach Parise but if one of those falls through, Tatar fits as a fallback option.  Carolina is typically a strong possession team where Tatar could fit in but they’d need to have a good sense of what Andrei Svechnikov’s next deal would cost to see if they can afford him or not.

Out West, no team needs scoring more than Anaheim whose only addition up front this summer has been Buddy Robinson on a two-way deal.  Tatar could immediately step into an impact role for them.  Nashville has yet to fill the vacancy created by the Viktor Arvidsson trade and Tatar would be able to replace him from an offensive standpoint.  Seattle could still stand to add to their forward group but with the Kraken appearing to be emphasizing cap flexibility, Tatar may appeal to them only on a short-term contract.  Arizona is another team that doesn’t appear to be overly concerned with next season but Tatar would certainly improve their fortunes and could be an option as a sign and flip there as well.  If Tatar is willing to take a one-year deal, Colorado may have enough wiggle room on the cap to make it work if he takes a bit less than what his market value should be.

Projected Contract

Tatar ranked 15th in our Top 50 UFA list with a projected three-year, $12MM contract.  There are definitely concerns with what has happened lately in the playoffs but with his regular season performances, Tatar should still have a sizable list of teams that have cap space interested in him so he could still command close to that $4MM AAV on a multi-year contract as one of the top free agents remaining.  If he goes a few weeks without signing, however, a one-year deal could become a more feasible option with an eye on rebuilding his value to improve his free agent fortunes a year from now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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