Free Agent Profile: Erik Gustafsson

Can you remember the 60-point season that Erik Gustafsson had just a few years ago? It seems like a decade has passed since that 2018-19 campaign, when he scored 17 goals and 60 points for the Chicago Blackhawks, trailing only Brent Burns, Mark Giordano, Morgan Rielly, John Carlsson, and Keith Yandle in scoring among NHL defensemen. One would think the 29-year-old could call up any GM in the league and iron out a contract with that kind of upside, but now he sits on the open market without a deal two weeks into free agency.

It’s what Gustafsson has done in the interim that has people worried. He returned to Chicago the next season and had 26 points in 59 games, but was so suspect defensively that he generated just a third-round pick at the deadline for the Blackhawks. His play down the stretch and in the bubble with the Calgary Flames was good enough to land him a $3MM salary for 2020-21 with the Philadelphia Flyers, but still inconsistent enough to limit the term to just one year. Once again he was moved at the deadline, only this time it was for a seventh-round pick from the Montreal Canadiens, directly showing how much his lustre had faded.

Still, you can’t just ignore the fact that Gustafsson has the 25th most points from a defenseman over the last three seasons. He averaged nearly 21 minutes a night over that stretch, and played in 16 of Montreal’s playoff games during their recent Stanley Cup run. There’s still NHL value in the offensive defenseman, even if his deployment has to be carefully determined.

Stats

2020-21: 29 GP, 1-11-12, -1 rating, 0 PIM, 33 shots, 57.2 CF%, 16:43 ATOI
Career: 250 GP, 29-102-131, -4 rating, 71 PIM, 425 shots, 55.6 CF%, 19:35 ATOI

Potential Suitors

The question really is–like with any player left in free agency–whether or not Gustafsson is willing to play for a contract near the league minimum. There are contenders who could use a depth option like him to drive play in certain situations, as long as he’s willing to come aboard cheaply. The Vegas Golden Knights, for instance, still likely need to add a defenseman after trading away Nick Holden, but don’t really have any cap space to work with. The Toronto Maple Leafs also don’t have a very long depth chart on defense, even after adding players like Alex Biega and Carl Dahlstrom. Toronto’s powerplay struggled immensely last season, so perhaps a player like Gustafsson could be used in a part-time role until they trust Rasmus Sandin in that spot.

If he wants to maximize his earning potential though, Gustafsson may be better off pursuing an opportunity on a rebuilding club. The Buffalo Sabres have a motley crew of defensemen heading into the season, with none outside of Rasmus Dahlin really demanding offensive deployment now that Rasmus Ristolainen is gone. Even the Arizona Coyotes, despite bringing in Shayne Gostisbehere, Conor Timmins and Anton Stralman could potentially use another NHL defenseman. The Coyotes have Victor Soderstrom waiting for his chance, but is bringing him up right now the best move for his development?

The issue now is how many teams have already filled out their depth charts. There’s just literally no room on some rosters for the veteran defenseman, meaning it could potentially be a long wait for him this summer.

Projected Contract

Gustafsson actually ranked 44th on our Top 50 UFA list, but even there we projected a one-year, $1MM contract. Even reaching that number may be a challenge at this point in free agency, with teams already cap committed with so many other options. That 60-point season is a distant memory at this point, meaning a deal near the league minimum or even–shockingly–a professional tryout may be in store. The thing is, that actually may be a huge bargain for whoever gets him, as there is still a way to squeeze real value out of what he does well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images