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Could Coronavirus Lead To The Return Of Compliance Buyouts?

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Just two weeks after the NHL announced a projected 2020-21 salary cap range that would have represented a major boost in teams’ spending power, things could not have gone in a worse direction in terms of meeting that estimation. The Coronavirus outbreak has shut the league down and there is no way to know when or if games will return this season. The league hopes to resume play and even maintains that they would like to avoid missing any games, but with each passing day that reality grows less and less likely. COVID-19 fears seem almost certain to cost games if not the entirety of the remaining regular season schedule and, in the worst-case scenario, possibly the playoffs as well. Missed games are missed revenue opportunities and the board of governors would be highly unlikely to approve a cap increase, especially of the magnitude initially projected, if they continue to suffer losses.

The last time that the NHL was forced to cancel games was in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. As the league and players’ association battled over collective bargaining terms, the NHL missed the first half of their season. A 48-game schedule began on January 19th, which for all involved was better than nothing but was certainly a hit to owners’ bottom lines. The 2012-13 campaign was expected to carry a $70.2MM cap hit, but that instead was a pro-rated number that in reality was just $60MM. The following season, given the lost revenue, the cap only meagerly returned to just $64.3MM, the same upper limit as in 2011-12.

Due to the unexpected stagnation of the salary cap for those two years, many teams were left under immense pressure to fit their rosters under the ceiling. In response, the NHL offered a solution: the “compliance buyout”. The compliance buyout follows the same rules as a standard buyout, allowing teams to cut ties with a player at the cost of two-thirds of the remaining value of their contract (one-third if under 26) over the course of double the length of the remaining term on the contract. The one defining difference is that compliance buyouts do not count against the salary cap. The NHL made this option available in the 2013 and 2014 off-seasons, with a limit of two per team over the two summers, and 18 teams took advantage. In fact, a number of teams are still paying off those buyouts – with a ways to go – with standouts including Christian Ehrhoff, Brad Richards, Ilya Bryzgalov, Vincent Lecavalier, and of course Rick DiPietro.

Could the compliance buyout make a return appearance should the Coronavirus outbreak continue to prevent NHL action from returning? If NHL teams end up losing revenue due to missed games, the 2020-21 salary cap limit will at best be the low end of the league’s projection, which is $84MM. And that would still be a $2.5MM increase. More likely in the case of canceled games would be the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM or only increasing marginally. Such a shift in the expected course of action would leave many teams in trouble. A report earlier today named the Chicago Blackhawks as one team that would have to make difficult roster decisions in the event of a stagnant cap, but they are far from alone. 13 teams already have $70MM+ in salary committed to 2020-21, while many of the 12 more  teams in the $60-70MM range either have key free agents to re-sign or are working with a small number of signed players. The Arizona Coyotes, who lead the pack with $79.99MM committed to just 18 players, were already hard-pressed to deal with an $84MM salary cap, nevertheless a continuation of the current $81.5MM. They would be left in a nearly impossible situation, unless offered a way out.

As such, it seems like a strong possibility that the compliance buyout could make its triumphant return. While the league does not want to address the “what if” of missed games at this point in time, should it reach the point where that result is inevitable, compliance buyouts will certainly become a hot topic. Whether the league would go about the process in a similar manner as they did last time around remains to be seen. They might instead offer a one-time shot this summer in light of NHL Expansion in 2021 that should get the salary cap back on track. It’s too early to tell, but as we all wait out the Coronavirus, it’s worth wondering whether the league could bring back an old device to mitigate the lasting effect of the pandemic.

Seattle Notes: Coach, Practice Facility, Expansion Draft

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While the Seattle expansion team will not take the ice for another 20 months, it is never too early to start planning ahead. Initially, the team was expected to pursue the franchise’s first head coach between January and June of 2021. However, the 2019-20 season has forced a number of major names onto the open market and now TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the hiring timeline has moved up. With the likes of Peter Laviolette, Bruce Boudreau, Mike Babcock, and perhaps most notably Gerard Gallant, the man who guided the expansion Vegas Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, among the available coaches right now, LeBrun believes that the team is likely to make a decision at head coach this summer. While the move would come with more than a year to spare, the team is unlikely to have this same selection if they wait too much longer, especially with the Minnesota Wild and New Jersey Devils among teams who will be looking for a replacement this summer. LeBrun notes that GM Ron Francis has cleared it with ownership to get out in front of the rush and hire a head coach sooner rather than later.

  • While the ownership group and front office is already hard at work preparing to build their team, hard work is also being put in at building the actual facilities that the Seattle team will use. With the arena still under construction, Seattle President and CEO Tod Lewieke announced that they also broke ground today on the team’s practice facility. Located just a few miles from the arena and at Seattle Center, the practice facility will house three rinks – the only other rinks inside of Seattle city limits. The 180,000-square foot facility will also have seating for spectators and will be open to other hockey events.
  • While the 2021 NHL Expansion draft is more than a year away, the passing of the NHL Trade Deadline does provide some clarity when looking ahead to possible protection schemes for each team. While the off-season free agent and trade markets will surely shift a number of rosters yet again, it is fair to assume that many teams will have a similar composition at this time next year as they do now. Of course, in a year’s time, the passing of the 2021 NHL Trade Deadline will essentially cement rosters ahead of the expansion draft.

Columbus Blue Jackets Extend Nathan Gerbe

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Veteran forward Nathan Gerbe has been more than just a minor league depth piece this season and the Columbus Blue Jackets have decided to reward his effort. The team has announced a new two-year extension with Gerbe, who was set to be an unrestricted free agent this summer. It is a two-way deal, but just barely, reports Sportsnet’s  Elliotte Friedman. The deal carries a $750K AAV at the NHL level and a $500K salary at the AHL level, which Friedman notes will make Gerbe one of the highest paid players in the minors.

Gerbe, 32, is well-respected player in the NHL ranks for his many years of hard-work as an undersized, but effective two-way forward. At just 5’4″, Gerbe is one of the smallest players in the league, but that hasn’t stopped him from contributing in over 400 NHL games. That includes four seasons of 25+ points, two each with the Buffalo Sabres and Carolina Hurricanes earlier in his career. Gerbe left North America in 2016 to play in the Swiss NLA, but ended up returning midway through the 2017-18 season to sign with Columbus. However, until this season he had played in only two games with the Blue Jackets, instead holding a leadership role with the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. After another hot start with the Monsters this season, Gerbe was recalled in December and has been a key contributor to the turnaround in Columbus’ season. He has eight points in 16 games, the best per-game pace of his NHL career, and has carved out a distinct role for himself on the team. The Blue Jackets clearly see a continuing need for that role and hope that this extension ensures that the serviceable veteran can continue to help them out.

There’s also the more cynical view of this extension, which is that the signing – at least the term – is largely fueled by the requirements of the impending 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Each team must expose two forwards who have played in either 40 games in 2020-21 or 70 games in 2019-20 and 2020-21 combined and who also are signed into the 2021-22 season. Gerbe looks as if he could fit the bill as an ideal sacrificial lamb. If the veteran plays out the rest of the season in Columbus, he could have upwards of 46 games under his belt and would only need to be used sparingly to hit 70 games total after next season, while his extension keeps him under contract through 2021-22. While it’s impossible to accurately project expansion protection schemes at this point in time, at first glance the Blue Jackets’ lack of numerous long-term contracts up front leaves a relatively ascertainable group of seven forwards they could protect, leaving very little in the way of regular NHLers to be exposed. Gerbe could help to solve that problem. It may not be the only reason he was signed, and to a multi-year deal at that, but it very likely played a role.

Morning Notes: Kreider, Kapanen, Muzzin, Markstrom

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The New York Rangers seemingly avoided disaster last night, as star Chris Kreider suffered an injury that appears to have looked worse than it actually was. A prone Kreider took an accidental knee to the head from teammate Mika Zibanejad early in the second period of Saturday’s match-up with the Detroit Red Wings and he did not return to the game. Head coach David Quinn, like any who witnessed the incident, was fearful that Kreider may have suffered a serious head injury. However, he told the media, including The New York Posts’ Brett Cygralis, that he felt much better after seeing Kreider after the game. “That looked like a really severe blow to the head,” Quinn said. “He wasn’t anywhere near as bad as I thought he would be. After the game ended, we talked, and it’s a lot better than I anticipated.” Quinn stated definitively that Kreider did not suffer a concussion, but the team is considering him day-to-day nonetheless. Kreider is simultaneously the best trade chip on the rental market and one of the Rangers’ most important pieces as they continue to stay relevant in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Fans of both trading Kreider or keeping and re-signing him know that a serious injury at this point in the year would have been a nightmare in either scenario. Fortunately, it sounds as though Kreider will be fine and could be back in action in no time.

  • Another surprise development from Saturday night was the absence of Kasperi Kapanen in the Toronto Maple Leafs lineup. Kapanen was made a healthy scratch by head coach Sheldon Keefe, but prior to game time there was no word as to why. Speaking to the media, including TSN’s Kristen Shilton, after the game, Keefe clarified the situation with Kapanen. Keefe stated that Kapanen was a healthy scratch, essentially serving a one-game suspension for what he called an issue of “internal accountability’”. He added that it was a one-time thing and the decision was only made yesterday morning, but he would not go into any more detail. More information may emerge when Kapanen has media availability on Monday. In the meantime, speculation has begun that Kapanen, a frequent name on the rumor mill, could be on the outs with Keefe and his staff. With the rest of the Maple Leafs playing well since Keefe took over, perhaps Kapanen will end up being the winger dealt out of Toronto at some point.
  • Impending free agent defenseman Jake Muzzin would like to stay in Toronto, but Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston says that it is not that simple. Johnston hears that early extension talks have been difficult due to the Maple Leafs’ cap constraints and the potential market value of Muzzin. With St. Louis’ Alex Pietrangelo and Boston’s Torey Krug both considered likely candidates to sign extensions, Muzzin would enter the conversation as the top defender available on the open market this summer. While he may be willing to take a slight discount to stay in Toronto, the potential to command a top-of-the-market contract if he opts for free agency will certainly play a major role in extension talks. The Maple Leafs may be unwilling or unable to pay him even close to what the top UFA defenseman will get this summer.
  • Vancouver Canucks goaltender Jacob Markstrom is another name who has made it known that he would like to re-sign, though acknowledging that he could have considerable value in the free agent market. Markstrom, an All-Star this season, has quietly positioned himself to be one of the best available in a weak goalie market should he opt for that route. However, Markstrom would prefer to stay in Vancouver and he and the team have been working toward an extension, Johnston reports. However, with Thatcher Demko showing NHL ability this season and Michael DiPietro also in the pipeline, the Canucks will be wary of going overboard on salary or term to keep Markstrom. The contract offer that keeps coming up is of a two-year term, keeping Markstrom in Vancouver through the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. This would give the team another year to decide whether Demko is the real deal or if they are better off moving forward with Markstrom, as either would could be a tempting target for the Seattle expansion franchise. Johnston’s colleague Elliotte Friedman adds that, as for salary, the most recent offer to Markstrom is rumored to be similar to the two-year, $9MM deal signed by Arizona’s Darcy Kuemper in October.

Snapshots: Vegas, Expansion, Russia

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At yesterday’s press conference, AHL president David Andrews suggested that the Vegas Golden Knights may soon be interested in purchasing a minor league franchise. That idea is more than just a suggestion, as Jesse Granger of The Athletic (subscription required) reports the Golden Knights are working to bring a team in as soon as October. The AHL club would be called the Henderson Silver Knights if all goes according to plan.

While this is obviously not a done deal at this point, more and more teams have begun to bring their AHL affiliates as geographically close as possible. Having a team in the same city (or very close, should the team eventually move to Henderson) allows for numerous benefits, including easier game-day call-ups. The Chicago Wolves, currently affiliated with the Golden Knights, would not be the franchise to move and issued a statement yesterday explaining that they would find a new NHL partner.

  • Speaking of new franchises, The Athletic’s Eric Duhatschek published the outlet’s first take on a Seattle expansion roster based on the current situation. The group is headlined by several exciting forwards and has plenty of Stanley Cup experience in net. Obviously things are going to change considerably before the 2021 draft, but it’s time to start thinking about expansion circumstances when evaluating every move around the league.
  • Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet gave some clarification on Twitter about a potential NHL visit to Russia in the coming years, explaining that it will not happen next season but there is still interest for the 2021-22 campaign. Friedman suggests that the St. Louis Blues and Washington Capitals would be potential teams to take part in the showcase, both obvious choices given their respective Russian stars.

Bettman Speaks On Tracking Technology, Nassau Coliseum, Olympics, And More

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NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman addressed the gathered media at the NHL All-Star Game in St. Louis this evening, speaking on a variety of topics. The long-time leader of the league had plenty to say, including confirming a 2021 All-Star weekend hosted by the Florida Panthers and introducing the league’s All-Decade teams. Here are some notes on other topics that Bettman touched on:

  • Player and puck tracking will become a reality in the NHL in the not too distant future. Bettman announced that the tracking technology will be available in all 16 arenas for the 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs and is likely to be operational in every NHL arena for the start of the 2020-21 season. The tracking data will allow for more accurate and polished statistics and game scoring, as well allowing for new stats and data visualizations that will further advance hockey analytics.
  • The question of which arenas will have tracking this spring will depend on how the rest of the season plays out. However, one team is already being forced to focus on where they might play should they make the playoffs. Bettman stated that a decision has not yet been made as to whether the New York Islanders will play their postseason games at the Nassau Coliseum, the preferred location of the team, or the Barclay’s center. Bettman called Nassau a “challenge” and that it is not a major league facility, which would cause problems if the Islanders made a deep playoff run. Bettman also acknowledged that a request has been made for New York to play all of their home games at Nassau Coliseum next season, but believes it is too early to make that decision.
  • One thing it is not too early for is continuing CBA talks. Bettman said that the league is expecting to go resume negotiations on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement with the NHLPA soon, after enough progress was made back in September that both sides decided not to use their opt-out clauses. There is plenty of time before the current CBA expires in 2022, but Bettman and company are eager to build on positive talks and get a new deal in place.
  • A bargaining issue that the NHL continues to hold firm on is Olympic participation. Bettman noted today that the league’s opinion that attending the Games is “extraordinarily disruptive” has not changed. He acknowledged that the players’ association would like to return to the Olympics, but that the league is comfortable without participating in Beijing in 2022. Bettman has not completely closed the door on the idea, but does not want to spread “false hope”. He added that the league will make a decision on their own time and will not abide by any deadline provided by the IIHF.
  • Another major league change that has the support of many, but not the NHL itself, is a change to the current playoff format. Bettman revealed that there have been no talks of altering the current postseason structure, even in a season with drastic competitive balance differences between divisions. The upcoming addition of the Seattle expansion team is not expected to change the playoff format either.

Canucks Notes: Trade Target, Markstrom, Sutter

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The Vancouver Canucks are exceeding expectations this season and, after a brief slide, are back to their winning ways with twelve points in their past ten games. The team is currently sitting in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but trail Calgary and Edmonton in the division by just four points with two games in hand, a difference of just .025 in points percentage. Rather than take this surprise success for granted, GM Jim Benning plans to take advantage. Speaking with Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre on Wednesday, Benning said that he is targeting a top-six scoring winger before the NHL Trade Deadline. He did qualify his comments by adding that the deal must “make sense”, but did not say exactly what that meant. With nine forwards carrying cap hits of  $3MM+ through 2020-21, a trade that makes sense for Vancouver is likely a rental deal. The team is also unlikely to get into the bidding for a star like Taylor Hall if it causes too much of a mortgage on their future in a year where a Stanley Cup run would take a fair amount of luck even with their solid play thus far. Potential targets who would nicely on the wing in Vancouver this season could include Vladislav Namestnikov, Alex Galchenyuk, Tyler Toffoli, or perhaps even Chris Kreider. There is still a lot of time left before the deadline and Vancouver’s play between now and then will dictate just how willing Benning in his to make a big deal.

  • Benning also stated in the interview that he plans to formally open up extension talks with starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom soon. Benning did not add much detail, and the Canucks’ interest in retaining Markstrom has previously been reported, but Benning did let slip one new wrinkle in the story. Benning stated that part of the reason that Vancouver would like to re-sign Markstrom was the impact that it would have on their protection scheme for the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Each team can only protect one goalie and must expose an eligible goalie who is under contract or team control (RFA) in 2021. Thatcher Demko would fit this description, but the team is likely hesitant to expose their potential future starter. As such, the team will likely eye a contract of at least two years with Markstrom to ensure they have a sacrificial lamb to offer up to Seattle. Whether or not the expansion team would have interest remains to be seen, but Markstrom will certainly draw interest before then if he hits the open market this summer. It seems Benning and company will try their hardest to prevent that.
  • Expected to miss just two weeks, a month later Brandon Sutter still has yet to return to the Vancouver lineup. The team has opted to scratch him in each of their past two games despite Sutter being medically cleared, as The Province’s Patrick Johnston writes that the team is being cautious and easing the veteran center back into action. This careful handling of Sutter’s health may not end any time soon either. Johnston believes that it could be a case of “load management” for Sutter this season. The defensive forward has struggled with groin injuries in the past and it is a notoriously lingering condition in hockey, so Sutter’s recent groin strain is nothing to take lightly. Expect Sutter, who was playing some of the best hockey of his Vancouver tenure before getting injured, to miss some games here and there and potentially see some fluctuations in his ice time as the Canucks manage his pain and try to keep him fresh for a hopeful playoff run..

 

Atlantic Notes: Krug, Fabbri, Moore

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While there has been plenty of debate on what the Boston Bruins should do with pending UFA defenseman Torey Krug this summer, there are other factors that the team must consider besides the team’s salary cap situation in the future.

The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa (subscription required) writes the Bruins also need to consider the upcoming Seattle expansion draft as well. The scribe writes that if Krug is retained, the team is more likely to protect four defensemen in Krug, Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo and Matt Grzelcyk. The problem is the team would then only be able to protect four forwards, including Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and either Charlie Coyle or Jake Debrusk. One of those two would likely be picked by Seattle.

However, if the team opted not to brink back Krug, the team might be able to choose the 7-3-1 protection format instead, which would allow Boston to protect those three defensemen (minus Krug) and then protect up to seven forwards, which might include two more forwards such as Danton Heinen and Anders Bjork as well.

  • Despite expecting to have some cap space this offseason, the Detroit Red Wings do have an inordinate number of restricted free agent forwards. In fact, the team has 11 RFAs they will have to deal with this summer. The Athletic’s Max Bultman (subscription required) examines some of the forwards and what their chances of coming back are. While Anthony Mantha’s status isn’t in doubt and Andreas Athanasiou status could end in a trade, there still are a number of forwards who could be fighting for a contract. The scribe writes that of all those forwards, many who must have solid campaigns this season, Robby Fabbri has definitely earned himself another contract with the Red Wings. The 23-year-old has established himself immediately with the team, posting 10 points in his first 13 games with the franchise. While it remains a long season and his offense could drop off, he has enough potential that it’s very likely the team will bring him back.
  • Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe said the team could be getting back forward Trevor Moore soon, according to Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun. The 24-year-old has been out since Nov. 15 with a shoulder injury, but Keefe said that Moore could make his return by the end of the team’s current four-game road trip that starts today, which could put him on schedule to return at some point next week. Moore has averaged 14:00 per game and has three goals and five points in 21 games as a bottom-six forward.

Metropolitan Notes: Murray, Gostisbehere, Gardiner

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Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Matt Murray has been criticized for many things, but playing too much has never been one of those. Regardless, Murray has seen the ice quite a bit already this season and if he continues to play as much as he has, Murray will easily break his season-high in minutes played. Last season, the 25-year-old netminder played 2,880 minutes, but Murray has already broken 1,000 minutes at just the quarter-point of the season.

While it’s nice to see Murray thriving without injury concerns, TribLive’s Seth Rorabaugh wonders whether the team might be smarter to cut down on Murray’s workload, considering how well backup Tristan Jarry has played in limited opportunity. While Murray has been solid with a injury-plagued team in front of him, boasting a 2.60 GAA and a .903 save percentage in 18 appearances, the 24-year-old Jarry has done even better with a 1.80 GAA and a .945 save percentage in six appearances.

With the team only using Jarry on the second night of back-to-back games, it might be time to give the backup more playing time in hopes of avoiding wearing down Murray later in the season.

  • Although the expansion draft remains far off, the summer of 2021, The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor (subscription required) looks at possible scenarios of who the team might protect down the road. He notes that with the signing of center Kevin Hayes, who carries a no-movement clause with him, and the emergence of Oskar Lindblom, the team may have to make a major decision with their defense. The scribe writes that with the disappointing play of defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, who continues to struggle this year after a poor 2018-19 season, could find himself on the outside looking in when it comes to what players the Flyers may keep.
  • In her most recent mailbag, The Athletic’s Sara Civian (subscription required) writes that Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jake Gardiner, who the team quietly signed in the offseason, continues to struggle as a third-pairing option. With fewer minutes than he is used to, the risk-taking blueliner has made quite a few defensive miscues as the team has scored 10 goals when he’s on the ice, but the Hurricanes have allowed 19 at the same time. Gardiner has just one goal and five assists, while sporting just a 3.7 percent shooting percentage on 27 shots. The hope is he can eventually work his way to a second-pairing option.

Poll: What Should The Seattle Team Be Called?

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We’re still nearly two years away from seeing the Seattle expansion franchise in action, but fans across North America and abroad are already extremely excited for the NHL’s next team. The same thing happened with the Vegas Golden Knights, with plenty of speculation leading up to their November 2016 announcement.

That was a little under a year before the Golden Knights debuted in the NHL, meaning we might have to wait quite a while to learn of Seattle’s moniker. Still, today we got a little closer when the team announced that they had sealed the final five options in the Space Needle 100th anniversary time capsule. Unfortunately that capsule won’t be opened until 2062, meaning fans will have to wait and wonder what name they’ll be chanting during the 2021-22 season.

If you could name it, what would you choose? We’ll run another one of these polls in the future as we get closer to an announcement, but there’s nothing better than early speculations. We’ve included some of the most popular options down below, but make sure to leave your own ideas in the comment sections and explain why you’d choose it!

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