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Ryan Shea Not Expected To Sign With Blackhawks

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Soon after a report surfaced that Luke Martin was unlikely to sign with the Carolina Hurricanes, news that another top collegiate defenseman will test free agency has popped up. According to Rinkside Rhode Islander reporter Mark Divver, Ryan Shea will not sign with the Chicago Blackhawks and instead will become an unrestricted free agent later this summer. Shea recently completed his senior season at Northeastern University, where he served as captain.

Unlike Martin, whose game almost entirely revolves around his defensive play, Shea has blossomed offensively over the years at Northeastern and recorded 31 points in 34 games this season. The left-handed defenseman was a fourth-round pick of the Blackhawks back in 2015 but played a year in the USHL before heading to college. He can become an unrestricted free agent after August 15th—though that date may change depending on how the league ends up scheduling the coronavirus-delayed offseason.

Chicago announced four signings earlier today, including Evan Barratt, one of their more highly-touted college prospects, but Shea shouldn’t be completely overlooked. The 23-year old has improved his skating and defensive play every year and was relied on in all situations by the Huskies.

Earlier this year, Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required) spoke to Shea and asked him if he felt any loyalty to the Blackhawks organization. At that point, the young defenseman told Powers that his relationship with Blackhawks director of player development Mark Eaton was “very strong” and that Chicago felt like the right spot by “all indications.” Obviously, things haven’t gone exactly according to that plan.

Chicago Blackhawks Sign Four Players

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The Chicago Blackhawks have had a busy morning, signing new contracts with four different players. The team has announced two-year contract extensions for both Matthew Highmore and Kevin Lankinen, while also inking Evan Barratt and Andrei Altybarmakyan to entry-level deals.

Highmore’s contract will carry an average annual value of $725K and is a two-way deal in 2020-21 and a one-way deal in 2021-22. Lankinen meanwhile gets an $800K average annual value, though it is also a two-way deal in 2020-21 and a one-way contract in 2021-22. Due to their ages, Barratt has signed a three-year entry-level deal, while Altybarmakyan’s contract is only for two years.

It doesn’t come as much of a surprise that the team would extend Highmore, after the 24-year old proved he could be a full-time member of the NHL squad. The undrafted forward had six points in 36 games with the Blackhawks this season, mostly playing an energy role on the fourth line. His near-minimum cap hit will help the Chicago front office navigate an offseason in which they have several tough negotiations. Dominik Kubalik and Dylan Strome are both scheduled for restricted free agency, but the team won’t have much room if the salary cap is adversely affected by the stoppage as expected.

Lankinen meanwhile lands a new deal as a depth goaltender, one that may be very important to the organization depending on what happens with Corey Crawford. The veteran goaltender is scheduled for unrestricted free agency, leaving the Blackhawks without a clear starter for next year.

It is Barratt who is perhaps the most interesting player signed today, after finishing another excellent season at Penn State. The 21-year old forward was originally a third-round selection in 2017, but has turned in three strong years at the collegiate level and was even selected for Team USA at the 2019 World Juniors. Barratt will turn pro and try to work his way up a Blackhawks organization that will be looking for young, cheap talent in the coming years.

Altybarmakyan is another third-round pick from 2017, selected out of Russia 20 spots higher than Barratt. The 21-year old winger has played the last two seasons for Sochi in the KHL, scoring six goals and 17 points this year. Despite arriving in the Blackhawks organization at the same time, Altybarmakyan could have actually been picked a year earlier—he went undrafted in his first year of eligibility. Since his birthday is nearly six months earlier than Barratt, his entry-level deal will expire a year sooner.

Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part I

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

Here is a rundown of the top compliance buyout candidates for the first third of NHL teams:

Anaheim Ducks: Adam Henrique

– The first team on the list is a tough call. Henrique has had a good season and the Ducks are not in significant cap trouble. However, with a long list of promising forward prospects and a defense that needs work, the team could opt to move on from the veteran forward and to create roster space and cap flexibility. Henrique, 30, is signed for four more years at $5.825MM.

Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel

– The Coyotes are in one of the worst positions in the league in terms of cap space, so the team would have to use a compliance buyout if the opportunity is offered to them. Kessel has been a relative bust in his first season with the ‘Yotes and is signed for two more years at $6.8MM. He has the potential to improve in year two, but Arizona may not have the luxury of taking the chance. The added cap space would be a major relief for the team.

Boston Bruins: John Moore

– Given the Bruins’ depth on defense in both veteran assets and budding prospects as well as Moore’s relegation to a backup role on the Boston blue line, he has become an expendable asset, especially if both Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are back next season. Moore is signed longer than any current Bruins defenseman with three years and $8.25MM remaining, but the team’s commitment to him seems less than any of his fellow blue liners.

Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo

– Unfortunately for the Sabres, the Okposo signing in 2016 has never panned out. His production dropped from 64 points with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to just 45 points in his first year in Buffalo and that total has gone down in every year since. Okposo was on pace for just 24 points this year and may not even reach that mark. The Sabres would be quick to part ways with Okposo, who has three years at $6MM annually left on his contract, taking up valuable cap space that the team needs to use to improve the rest of their roster.

Calgary Flames: Milan Lucic

– Even with the salary being retained by the Edmonton Oilers on Lucic’s contract, his $5.25MM cap hit is still a pain for the Flames. The veteran power forward is not going to score 20+ goals or 50+ points in a season ever again and Calgary could do more with the added cap space over the next three years.

Carolina Hurricanes: Jake Gardiner

– For whatever reason, the Gardiner signing simply has not worked out as the Hurricanes had hoped. Gardiner, who was signed late last summer at a relative discount, has been a fine addition, but hasn’t been the point producer and power play ace that Carolina had hoped for. Following the deadline addition of Brady Skjei to arguably the deepest blue line in the NHL already, Gardiner and his remaining three years and $12.15MM are expendable.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook

– One of the more obvious choices on this list, Seabrook’s contract may the worst in the NHL right now. The 34-year-old has four years left at $6.875MM AAV on an eight-year, $55MM deal signed back in 2015. Over the term of the contract, Seabrook has declined rapidly and is a shell of his former self, regardless of health. The cap-strapped Blackhawks would not think twice about moving on.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson

– Johnson is a well-liked and well-respected long-time member of the Avalanche. However, as time has gone on the team has surrounded him with better, younger, and more affordable blue line options. As valuable as Johnson’s experience and leadership may be, he is an expendable piece without a clear future role. Signed through 2022-23 at a $6MM cap hit, Johnson is an expensive piece to keep around just for the intangibles and the Avs could look to use this opportunity to clear some space for some anticipated big game hunting this off-season.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg

– Blue Jackets fans have been calling for Wennberg’s head for years now and may finally get their wish. The once-promising young forward turned a 59-point 2016-17 season into a six-year, $29.4MM contract and then proceeded to regress immensely over the past few seasons instead of continuing to improve as expected. With another three years left at $4.9MM per, Wennberg doesn’t seem likely to get back to a level of play that would warrant his current cap hit and Columbus could move on, even from a 25-year-old homegrown product.

Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano

– The Stars are a team with numerous big names and long contracts, but their most inefficient name might just be Cogliano. Rather than using a buyout to move a heavy cap hit, Dallas could opt to trim the fat by removing a player that hasn’t been a good fit. Cogliano has showed that his six points in 32 games last season with the Stars following a trade from Anaheim was not a fluke; he followed it up with 14 points through 68 games this year. Expecting Cogliano to get back to 30+ point form in 2020-21 in his final year at $3.25MM seems hopeful at best and Dallas could use that space elsewhere with some lineup holes to fill this summer.

Stay tuned for Part II coming soon.

Perunovich Contract Likely To Open Up Deals For Other Top Collegiates

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While many undrafted college players have already signed in the last couple of weeks, only a handful of top collegiate players have inked new deals. One of the reasons is due to questions surrounding whether players could sign contracts for this year, since it the rest of the season remains in limbo. However, with the recent signing of defenseman Scott Perunovich with the St. Louis Blues to two different contracts, that could open up a flood of players who are ready to sign contacts, according to Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required).

Perunovich agreed to two contracts Friday, one that would start this year (assuming the season continues), while the other would start in the 2019-20 season, although both contracts would be two-year deals. The scribe notes that St. Louis had to get NHL approval of the two contracts, which now could open up possibilities for several college players, including Chicago Blackhawks’ Ian Mitchell, Vegas Golden Knights’ Jack Dugan and Winnipeg Jets’ Dylan Samberg.

Powers uses the example of Mitchell, who wrapped up his junior season at the University of Denver and has to sign a three-year, entry-level contract due to his age. Mitchell would prefer to sign starting this season as it would immediately burn that first year.

“Right now we are waiting to see what happens with the NHL season,” the 21-year-old Mitchell wrote. “There is a freeze on contracts being signed for this season. If I were to sign a contract now, I wouldn’t be able to play this year if the season resumes. So right now it is just wait and see.”

Technically, Perunovich has not signed either contact, but will sign one of the two once it’s decided on whether the 2019-20 season will continue or not. That could be the case for any other college prospects who are eager to sign, but would prefer to sign for this year and not wait an extra year.

Mitchell continues to wait on whether there is a season this year, but is suddenly more open to signing soon after Perunovich’s deal.

“Yes, all options are on the table,” said Mitchell in a text when asked about signing a similar deal.

Powers believes that the contract itself has already been worked out, especially since Chicago has been willing to hand out “A” bonuses to their top prospects in the past and with Mitchell having the ability to threaten to return to Denver for his senior year, he is likely to get that, although it’s believed that he is leaning towards signing a pro contract.

Stretch Run Storylines: Chicago Blackhawks

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We wrap up our look at the Central Division with Chicago.

It has been another disappointing season for the Blackhawks who sit at the bottom of the division with their only hope of a playoff spot being an expanded field.  For the most part, their veterans have underachieved which has to be a bit concerning to a team that has several key veteran players on long-term deals.  However, one of their few veterans not on a long-term pact is one of their top storylines for the stretch run.

Bridge Or Long-Term?

The Blackhawks have limited cap space to work with as they have more than $73MM in commitments already for next season.  Despite that, center Dylan Strome and Dominik Kubalik are a pair of youngsters that will be vying for a long-term pact if the team can free up some extra funds over the offseason.  How they fare down the stretch may ultimately help GM Stan Bowman which one to try to sign to something other than a bridge deal if the cap room is there.

Strome hasn’t been as productive as he was last season, his first with Chicago but that wasn’t entirely unexpected.  After going from being a middling player in Arizona to nearly a point-per-game player, this season was going to fall somewhere in between that.  The end result hasn’t been half bad as he has picked up a dozen goals and 26 assists in 58 games.  He now has 116 games in a Blackhawks uniform but is that enough to get a long-term deal?  If the regular season plays out in full, another 12 games could actually help sway things.

Kubalik has been one of the bigger pleasant surprises in the league this season, jumping in with 30 goals in his rookie campaign.  Of course, he’s not as young as most rookies are as he’ll be 25 at the start of next season.  That has him two years away from unrestricted free agency and arbitration-eligible already.  A bridge deal walks him to UFA eligibility but with only 68 NHL games as a track record, that’s not much to go off of.  Like Strome, playing out the final dozen games may wind up helping (or hurting) his chances of a long-term pact.

Crawford’s Future

When the Blackhawks signed Robin Lehner to a one-year deal in the summer, it felt like a potential sign that they had decided that Corey Crawford’s days as their full-time starter were over.  But Crawford slightly outperformed Lehner in a virtual platoon situation and Lehner was eventually dealt to Vegas at the trade deadline.  Does that mean that Crawford is again the goalie of the future?

That’s what he’s certainly hoping for but it’s far from a given that he has done enough to show it.  He has had difficulty staying healthy in recent years and he’s 35.  There aren’t a lot of legitimate starters at that age still out there.

But let’s look back at their cap situation.  With Strome and Kubalik to re-sign on top of their current commitments, they can’t afford to be shopping at the top end of the market in free agency.  They’ll need to go with a more affordable option which could very well be Crawford.  Before the pandemic, it certainly seemed like a short-term contract extension was quite possible and a good finish to the year could help his chances of getting the strong side of the platoon next year.

Reverse Standings Watch

What do teams do when they’re out of contention?  They keep looking at the standings but instead of looking up, they look down.

As things currently sit, Chicago is ahead of eight teams in the overall standings but half of the teams behind them are within five points.  That margin is certainly erasable if the NHL plays out a full 82-game schedule and it’s notable that two of their remaining 12 contests are against teams in that group just behind them.

It’s a given that players like Kirby Dach, Adam Boqvist, and Nicolas Beaudin will get more playing time down the stretch and for Chicago fans, that will certainly be something to watch for.  How they perform will go a long way towards determining whether the Blackhawks stay where they are or fall back a bit and improve their odds at the Draft Lottery (whenever it happens to be rescheduled for following its postponement earlier this week).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: If Season Ends Now, Who Should Win Calder Trophy?

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The NHL has every intention in trying to finish out the regular season and have a playoffs to cap off the 2019-20 season. However, with the unknown nature of the quickly changing COVID-19 virus, the season already has been suspended and could be pushed back further and further to avoid players contracting the virus. There has been talk of a drop-dead date as the league doesn’t want the 2019-20 to interfere with the 2020-21 season, which could make the regular season expendable if things begin to extend further and further into the summer. If the regular season ended on March 11, who would walk away as the league’s top rookie?

At midseason, it looked like an obvious choice as Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar dominated the first half of the season after coming over from UMass-Amherst last season. The 21-year-old had a dominant 11 goals and 37 points in 41 games before the all-star break. While his numbers dipped slightly, Makar has still been impressive in a much more limited second half. He did miss five games with an upper-body injury in late February where Colorado lost three of those five games, yet he still had a goal and 13 points in 16 games since the break. In total, however, Makar currently has 12 goals and 50 points in 57 games, an impressive feat for a rookie blueliner.

While Makar seemed like the inevitable choice early on, Vancouver Canucks rookie defenseman Quinn Hughes came on late to have his own impressive season. Hughes has been a solid addition to a Canucks defense at the end of last season as he came out of the University of Michigan. While he had solid numbers in the first half, with five goals and 34 points in 48 games before the all-star break, he did explode in February with 15 points in 13 games and tallied eight goals and 53 points in 68 points. While Makar might have had a better points-per-game average, it was Hughes who provided the healthier player on the ice.

There are several other candidates who will receive some consideration, including Chicago Blackhawks forward Dominik Kubalik, who scored 30 goals already in just 68 games in his first season in North America. The 24-year-old had spent his entire career overseas in the Czech League and the NLA, but adjusted to North American skating rinks quickly and was a key piece to the Blackhawks’ squad.

Several goalies dominated this season, but New Jersey Devils goalie MacKenzie Blackwood so far has a 22-14-8 record on a struggling Devils team. While he did post a 2.77 GAA, his save percentage suggests that he has been a dominant netminder for the Devils this season at .915.

So, if the regular season ended today, who would be the Calder Trophy winner?

For Pro Hockey app users, click here to vote.

Stan Bowman And Jeremy Colliton Will Return Next Season

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While this season has been a disappointing one for Chicago, it doesn’t appear as if any front office changes are on the horizon.  Team chairman Rocky Wirtz told Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required) that team president John McDonough, GM Stan Bowman, and head coach Jeremy Colliton are all expected to return for next season.  The Blackhawks currently sit in the basement of the Central Division and barring a significant expansion of the playoff pool, they’ll miss the postseason for the third straight year.  Powers notes that Bowman’s last announced contract extension took him through 2020-21 so if there hasn’t been anything signed since then, he’ll be entering the final year of his deal.  McDonough wouldn’t comment on whether or not a new contract for him is already in place.

Could Coronavirus Lead To The Return Of Compliance Buyouts?

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Just two weeks after the NHL announced a projected 2020-21 salary cap range that would have represented a major boost in teams’ spending power, things could not have gone in a worse direction in terms of meeting that estimation. The Coronavirus outbreak has shut the league down and there is no way to know when or if games will return this season. The league hopes to resume play and even maintains that they would like to avoid missing any games, but with each passing day that reality grows less and less likely. COVID-19 fears seem almost certain to cost games if not the entirety of the remaining regular season schedule and, in the worst-case scenario, possibly the playoffs as well. Missed games are missed revenue opportunities and the board of governors would be highly unlikely to approve a cap increase, especially of the magnitude initially projected, if they continue to suffer losses.

The last time that the NHL was forced to cancel games was in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. As the league and players’ association battled over collective bargaining terms, the NHL missed the first half of their season. A 48-game schedule began on January 19th, which for all involved was better than nothing but was certainly a hit to owners’ bottom lines. The 2012-13 campaign was expected to carry a $70.2MM cap hit, but that instead was a pro-rated number that in reality was just $60MM. The following season, given the lost revenue, the cap only meagerly returned to just $64.3MM, the same upper limit as in 2011-12.

Due to the unexpected stagnation of the salary cap for those two years, many teams were left under immense pressure to fit their rosters under the ceiling. In response, the NHL offered a solution: the “compliance buyout”. The compliance buyout follows the same rules as a standard buyout, allowing teams to cut ties with a player at the cost of two-thirds of the remaining value of their contract (one-third if under 26) over the course of double the length of the remaining term on the contract. The one defining difference is that compliance buyouts do not count against the salary cap. The NHL made this option available in the 2013 and 2014 off-seasons, with a limit of two per team over the two summers, and 18 teams took advantage. In fact, a number of teams are still paying off those buyouts – with a ways to go – with standouts including Christian Ehrhoff, Brad Richards, Ilya Bryzgalov, Vincent Lecavalier, and of course Rick DiPietro.

Could the compliance buyout make a return appearance should the Coronavirus outbreak continue to prevent NHL action from returning? If NHL teams end up losing revenue due to missed games, the 2020-21 salary cap limit will at best be the low end of the league’s projection, which is $84MM. And that would still be a $2.5MM increase. More likely in the case of canceled games would be the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM or only increasing marginally. Such a shift in the expected course of action would leave many teams in trouble. A report earlier today named the Chicago Blackhawks as one team that would have to make difficult roster decisions in the event of a stagnant cap, but they are far from alone. 13 teams already have $70MM+ in salary committed to 2020-21, while many of the 12 more  teams in the $60-70MM range either have key free agents to re-sign or are working with a small number of signed players. The Arizona Coyotes, who lead the pack with $79.99MM committed to just 18 players, were already hard-pressed to deal with an $84MM salary cap, nevertheless a continuation of the current $81.5MM. They would be left in a nearly impossible situation, unless offered a way out.

As such, it seems like a strong possibility that the compliance buyout could make its triumphant return. While the league does not want to address the “what if” of missed games at this point in time, should it reach the point where that result is inevitable, compliance buyouts will certainly become a hot topic. Whether the league would go about the process in a similar manner as they did last time around remains to be seen. They might instead offer a one-time shot this summer in light of NHL Expansion in 2021 that should get the salary cap back on track. It’s too early to tell, but as we all wait out the Coronavirus, it’s worth wondering whether the league could bring back an old device to mitigate the lasting effect of the pandemic.

Blackhawks Notes: Barratt, Cap Concerns, Mitchell

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With the college season now finished, we have seen an uptick in NCAA signings over the past few days.  Don’t expect Blackhawks prospect Evan Barratt to be among those just yet.  The winger told Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required) that he has yet to have any conversations with Chicago GM Stan Bowman about whether or not to turn pro next season.  The 2017 third-round pick (90th overall) is coming off a quieter year offensively, picking up 34 points in as many games after collecting 43 in 32 contests a year ago.  Nonetheless, he is one of Chicago’s better prospects and it’s likely that they will want to get a deal done to turn him pro for 2020-21.  But with no talks yet, it may be a little while yet before it happens.

More from Chicago:

  • The likelihood of a flattened salary cap due to the COVID-19 pandemic could wreak some havoc on Chicago’s plans. As Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times suggests, the Blackhawks may have to turn to the buyout market this summer to free up room to re-sign players like Corey Crawford, Dylan Strome, and Dominik Kubalik plus fill out the rest of their roster as they have more than $73MM in commitments to 17 players already for next season.  Veteran forward Zack Smith, if healthy by the offseason, would be a logical candidate given his role while Pope suggests blueliner Olli Maatta could also make some sense considering his buyout rate would only be one-third which would yield a lot of savings on the cap.
  • Another Blackhawks college prospect with a decision to make is defenseman Ian Mitchell. He told Mike Chambers of the Denver Post that he’s likely to forego his senior year and turn pro next season but nothing is finalized yet.  The 2017 second-rounder (57th overall) had a career best ten goals in 36 games with the University of Denver this season while also participating in Canada’s entry in the Spengler Cup.  He’s a player that could push for an NHL roster spot quite quickly and will carry a low price tag on an entry-level deal which would only boost his chances further considering their cap situation.

Snapshots: GM Conference Call, SHL Playoffs, Kubalik

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NHL general managers held a conference call with the league this afternoon. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that much of the call revolved around the memo that the NHL sent out Friday regarding what teams can and cannot do during this self-isolation that the league has set due to the Coronavirus. There is a chance that players may be allowed to skate at team facilities in small groups at a later date, but nothing concrete has been set.

LeBrun added that there was no discussion on a potential schedule or playoffs when the NHL lifts its suspension. It is believed that it is far too early to begin discussing potential scenarios with not enough information available yet on when the season may begin again.

  • The Swedish Hockey League reported on their own website (translation required) that due to everybody’s health and safety due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the league has requested to the Swedish Ice Hockey Association that they cancel the SHL playoffs, which would end their season. The team announced earlier this week that they had postponed the playoffs until Mar. 24, however, the league looks to be reversing course like many leagues have done in the past few days. A decision is expected on Sunday. The Swedish Ice Hockey Association is responsible for competition rules and the playoffs, which is why the SHL must clear it with them first.
  • The Athletic’s Scott Powers and Mark Lazerus reported that the Chicago Blackhawks top priority this offseason is to lock up restricted free agent Dominik Kubalik to a new contract. The 24-year-old rookie signed a one-year entry-level contract this offseason out of the NLA and has seen his career take off with a 30-goal, 46-point season so far this season. While Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes have garnered most of the attention for the Calder Trophy this season, Kubalik is right up there as well. The scribes write that Kubalik’s agent traveled to Chicago this week to discuss a contract with general manager Stan Bowman in hopes of getting a deal done soon.

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