PHR Live Chat Transcript: 09/07/23
Click here to read the transcript of this week’s live chat with PHR’s Josh Erickson.
2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Eleventh Overall Pick
Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.
We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?
The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:
1st Overall: Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)
4th Overall: Matt Duchene, Atlanta Thrashers (3)
5th Overall: Chris Kreider, Los Angeles Kings (19)
6th Overall: Nazem Kadri, Phoenix Coyotes (7)
7th Overall: Mattias Ekholm, Toronto Maple Leafs (102)
8th Overall: Evander Kane, Dallas Stars (4)
9th Overall: Brayden Schenn, Ottawa Senators (5)
10th Overall: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Edmonton Oilers (6)
PHR readers have opted to give the Oilers an addition on defense rather than offense with the 10th overall pick this time around, awarding them Ekman-Larsson with 30% of the vote. In doing so, the original top seven selections are now off the board, with Kane and Ekman-Larsson, our biggest fallers so far, dropping four selections each.
Unlike many other defenders, Ekman-Larsson’s development was not a slow burn. His best seasons came before his 25th birthday, consistently earning Norris Trophy consideration while holding down a top-pair role for the Phoenix/Arizona Coyotes. He had captured a top-four role before his 21st birthday, playing in all 82 games during his sophomore 2011-12 season and posting 32 points while averaging over 22 minutes per game.
However, after four more seasons of producing like a top-flight defender, Ekman-Larsson began to show signs of decline. His point production waned slightly, and while his combined -53 rating between the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons is much more a reflection of the team around him, his possession numbers were not nearly up to par with the more dominant two-way play he’d displayed in the years prior. The Coyotes named him captain in 2018 after the retirement of Shane Doan, but his play continued to slowly dwindle until the organization cut ties in 2021, dealing him, along with Conor Garland and other ancillary pieces, to the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks bought out the remainder of his eight-year, $66MM extension signed with Arizona in 2018 this summer, resulting in the largest non-compliance buyout in league history.
The 32-year-old defender will now try and turn things around nearly as far away from Vancouver as you can get in the NHL, signing a one-year, $2.25MM deal with the Florida Panthers in free agency. He recorded two goals and 22 points in 54 games for the Canucks last season, alongside a -24 rating and a career-worst -3% relative Corsi For at even strength.
Despite his downfall, Ekman-Larsson’s peak years with the Coyotes were much better than any defender the Oilers had to offer at the time, and drafting him could have easily changed the team’s trajectory throughout the early 2010s. Of course, that would mean losing out on Connor McDavid and the first-overall pick in 2015.
Now, we move to the 11th overall selection in 2009: the Nashville Predators. They’re likely happy with their original choice, Ryan Ellis, as he contributed in a top-four role for the better part of 562 games with the franchise before a psoas muscle injury cut his career short after a deal to the Philadelphia Flyers in 2021. However, do you think there’s a better player not yet taken in our series? Vote in the poll below:
If you can’t access the poll above, you can click here to vote.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Winnipeg Jets To Be Patient With Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele
Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele have been in trade rumors all summer long. And Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe says that training camp isn’t putting any pressure on the Winnipeg Jets to find a deal. Wiebe says that the Jets don’t want to make a rash decision regarding their top center and goaltender, especially following the trading of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Scheifele’s former number-two, to the Los Angeles Kings.
Instead, Wiebe expects both Scheifele and Hellebuyck to attend training camp, where reporters and fans should be able to get a much better sense of what path forward the players may prefer. The team remains open to both trades and possible contract extensions, although the price of either option would be steep. How the Jets handle Hellebuyck and Scheifele’s situation will be very interesting to follow, as it could be a strong indicator of the team’s goals over the next few years.
There’s no denying the impact that Hellebuyck or Scheifele makes on a day-to-day basis. Hellebuyck ranks second in wins over the last five seasons, behind only Andrei Vasilevskiy, and his .916 save percentage ranks sixth among all goalies with 150 or more games played in that span. He won the Vezina Trophy only four seasons ago and finished third in Vezina voting this year, marking the fourth time he’s finished in the top five.
And while Hellebuyck has been a stone wall in net, Scheifele has been the team’s goal-scorer. He netted 42 goals in 81 games last season, his first time breaking the 40-goal mark. He’s reached 272 career goals, all coming with the Jets, placing him just 56 goals behind Ilya Kovalchuk‘s franchise goal-scoring record. Scheifele also ranks second in all-time franchise scoring, with 645 career points. While the Jets have tended to spread around their ice time, Scheifele continues to operate confidently as the team’s top-line center.
The Winnipeg Jets aren’t necessarily up against the cap but keeping around a Vezina-caliber starter and 40-goal-scoring top-line center beyond this season will undoubtedly come at a rich price. For a team with a lot of questions looming, decisions around Hellebuyck and Scheifele will be telling.
East Notes: Kessel, Marchand, Reinhart
Phil Kessel is looking for his next team after winning his third Stanley Cup with the Vegas Golden Knights. Many fans have hoped that his free agency could mean a possible reunion with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Kessel spent four years of his 17-year career in Pittsburgh, winning Cups in his first two years with the club. But Pittsburgh Hockey Now’s Dave Molinari shares that a reunion is less than likely. Molinari shares that Pittsburgh’s current roster building is focused around fleshing out their bottom-six. And while Kessel, who scored 36 points in 82 games last year, may be able to provide some exciting bottom-six scoring, he doesn’t fit the checking-line style that Pittsburgh is targeting. The Hockey News’ Nick Horwat is similarly doubtful that Kessel is set for a Pittsburgh reunion, adding that Kessel doesn’t have the defensive acumen that new Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has prioritized.
More from the Eastern Conference:
- Brad Marchand and the Boston Bruins are entering unfamiliar territory as they begin a season without Patrice Bergeron. Marchand spoke extensively about what Bergeron’s absence means for the team. NHL.com’s Eric Russo says that the Bruins winger will need to take on a larger portion of the leadership load. But when asked about the likelihood that he could take on the next captaincy, Marchand said that he’s not thinking about it much and that, regardless of the next captain, the Bruins will need to collectively lift each other up to help match Bergeron’s impact.
- Sam Reinhart is entering the final year of his contract and beginning to consider his future with the Florida Panthers. Reinhart has never been an unrestricted free agent, signing his most recent deal as a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. But despite the freedom being a UFA provides, Reinhart says he’d like to stay in Florida. Speaking to the expiring contract, he said, “It is not something I stress over or lose sleep over too much. They know I want to be here, I know they want me here.”
Boston Bruins Reportedly Showing Interest In Shane Pinto
Jimmy Murphy of Boston Hockey Now has shared that the Boston Bruins are expected to be interested in Ottawa Senators youngster Shane Pinto. The 22-year-old’s contract situation is becoming a bit of a saga, with a recent report claiming that the Senators and Pinto were still far apart on a new deal.
The Senators currently sit with a projected $895,953 in cap space, per CapFriendly. Pinto is coming off of a rookie entry-level contract that carried a $925K annual salary and cap hit. He’s unlikely to step back from that dollar amount in his second NHL contract, especially considering his rookie-year successes. After appearing in 17 games between 2020 and 2022, Pinto finally played his rookie season last year, netting 35 points while playing in all 82 games. This ranked him eighth in NHL rookie scoring, tied with Buffalo Sabres defender Owen Power.
But despite the admirable rookie scoring, Murphy reports that Pinto landing in trade conversations in rooted in Ottawa preferring Ridly Greig. Greig was taken in the 28th overall in the 2020 NHL Draft, four spots higher than Ottawa selected Pinto in 2019. He’s one year younger than Pinto and played his first full professional season last year, splitting time between the NHL and AHL. In 20 NHL games, Greig tallied nine points while scoring an additional 29 in 39 AHL games.
But the rumored price for Pinto will be high, with Ottawa looking for a high-end prospect close to breaking the NHL roster. Murphy shares that options from Boston would likely be Fabian Lysell or John Beecher. Both players appeared with the AHL’s Providence Bruins last year, with Lysell scoring 37 points in 54 games and Beecher tallying 23 points in 61 games. Acquiring high-end prospects helps Ottawa bolster their roster while not taking on too much additional cap hit, which Murphy’s source says is a priority for the club.
Dylan Sikura Signs In Sweden’s Top League
Dylan Sikura has signed a deal with Skellefteå AIK of the SHL. No details of the contract have been released yet but it’s an exciting move for a player who has spent the majority of the last five seasons in the AHL. Sikura, 28, has appeared in 250 AHL games over that span, recording 93 goals and 207 points. This includes 44 points in 69 games last season, splitting time between the Rockford IceHogs and San Diego Gulls, who he joined partway through the year.
Sikura shared that moving to Sweden has been a long-running goal, saying:
It feels incredible to have signed for Skellefteå. I have always been interested in playing in Sweden and when the opportunity came I was very interested. I have played with two guys who played in Skellefteå (Andreas Wingerli and Filip Roos) and they loved the city and the team. I remember they always spoke highly of it.
Unfortunately, Wingerli and Roos no longer play for Skellefteå. But the team isn’t void of former NHL talent. Pär Lindholm, Oscar Möller, and Oscar Lindberg are all also NHL and AHL veterans that now suit up for the Swedish club. The team also carries a slew of NHL prospects, including the 17th-overall selection in this year’s draft, Axel Sandin Pellikka.
Sikura is optimistic that his style can gel well with this mix of veteran talent and young potential, saying:
I like to see myself as a playmaker who likes to shoot as well. Throughout my career, the power play has been a big part of my game so I hope to be able to make it work when I transfer it to the big ice surface in the SHL as well. I think I can use my speed and understanding of the game to hopefully score a lot of goals.
Skellefteå AIK came just a few games away from an SHL championship last season, losing in the finals to the Växjö Lakers, who won their second title in three years. Sikura will look to help Skellefteå push for a long playoff run again this year, but hopefully with a better outcome.
Philadelphia Flyers Expected To Sign Morgan Frost
Sept. 7: Philadelphia has officially announced a two-year contract for Frost. The deal is indeed a $4.2MM package that carries an AAV of $2.1MM.
The Philadelphia Flyers are expected to sign their last remaining restricted free agent, Morgan Frost, to a two-year contract, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. Flyers president of hockey operations Keith Jones said last weekend the two sides were working toward a resolution. The deal, which carries a $2.1MM AAV, breaks down as follows, per CapFriendly:
2023-24: $1.45MM base salary, $350K signing bonus
2024-25: $2.4MM base salary (this amount also represents his qualifying offer in 2025)
The deal will keep Frost in Philadelphia through the 2024-25 season, at which point he will be in his last season of RFA eligibility. He’ll also have arbitration rights that time around, something he didn’t have on his side this summer.
Frost, 24, is coming off a breakout 2022-23 season, which saw him post 46 points in 81 games, finishing fourth on the Flyers in scoring. He finally arrived as a full-time top-nine NHL center after a rocky development path since turning pro in 2019. The team’s 27th overall pick in 2017, Frost missed nearly all of the 2020-21 campaign due to a shoulder injury but has rebounded nicely since then. Last season was also his first healthy campaign spent exclusively in the NHL, avoiding any minor-league assignments.
It was a particularly strong end to the season for Frost, who had eight goals and nine assists in the final 20 games of the campaign. He also managed to keep his head above water defensively – his 47.9% Corsi For at even strength was fifth among full-time Flyers forwards last season, and he did so while receiving some heavy minutes, averaging a career-high 16:21 per game. However, Frost struggled in the faceoff dot, posting a 45.8% win rate.
In the unlikely scenario that Frost stagnates in his development, $2MM is still well below market value for what he brought last season. Flyers general manager Daniel Brière doled out a slightly richer deal to budding shutdown center Noah Cates earlier in the summer, signing him for two years at a $2.65MM cap hit. Using the 24-year-old Cates as a direct comparable, it’s clear why Frost held out this long into the summer in hopes of landing a more prosperous bridge deal. This deal could also set the table for Ottawa Senators center Shane Pinto, who remains without a contract for this season and posted similar production to Frost in 2022-23 (20 goals, 35 assists in 82 games).
Snapshots: Lindholm, Heatley, Mikheyev
The 2023-24 season hasn’t even started yet, and some Calgary Flames fans may already be tired of discussing pending UFA Elias Lindholm‘s future with the team. It’s been a major talking point this summer, with a potential mass exodus of unrestricted free agents from the Flames next offseason. Last week, however, Lindholm confirmed he’s open to the idea of an extension in Calgary, and today, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman gave us some clarity on what a deal may look like.
Speaking on NHL Network, Friedman said he “really thought [Bo] Horvat was going to be the comparable at 8×8.5, and I think it’s possible Lindholm now actually comes in higher than that, potentially… I think the number is going to have to be above Horvat, I’ve heard it might be closer to 8.75 or 9.” He, of course, is referring to Horvat’s eight-year, $8.5MM AAV extension signed with the New York Islanders after being acquired from the Vancouver Canucks this past season. While he does have multiple years of experience as a defensively solid first-line center, that would be quite a lot of money to pay someone who’s cracked the 70-point mark just twice in his career and the 30-goal mark only once.
Last season, Lindholm finished second on the Flames in scoring with 22 goals, 42 assists and 64 points in 80 games. It was a falloff from his career-high 2021-22 campaign between Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, where the then-27-year-old posted 42 goals and 82 points in 82 games alongside a ridiculous +61 rating. For comparison, 25-year-old Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson, who’s scored 85 goals in 156 games over the past two seasons, is signed for seven more seasons at a $7.143MM cap hit.
Elsewhere from around the NHL today:
- The Philadelphia Flyers have confirmed the hire of two-time All-Star Dany Heatley as a pro scout, notes independent Flyers reporter Charlie O’Connor. This will be Heatley’s first documented off-ice staffing role since retiring from pro hockey in 2016. The 42-year-old former sniper won the 2002 Calder Trophy as a member of the Atlanta Thrashers and scored 372 goals in 869 NHL games across 13 seasons with the Thrashers, Ottawa Senators, San Jose Sharks, Minnesota Wild, and Anaheim Ducks.
- Vancouver Canucks winger Ilya Mikheyev is still recovering from an ACL injury that was aggravated and then operated on in late January, and CHEK’s Rick Dhaliwal reports it may keep him out of preseason action. Mikheyev initially sustained the injury in preseason action for Vancouver last season but only missed a handful of weeks before being cleared to play in mid-October and recording 28 points in 46 games for the Canucks. He is still expected to be ready to go for opening night, however, and could very well begin his second season in British Columbia’s biggest city in a top-six role after averaging almost 17 minutes per game last season.
Michael Del Zotto Announces Retirement
Longtime NHL defenseman Michael Del Zotto announced his retirement via Instagram today, ending a 13-season NHL career.
Del Zotto, 33, was drafted by the New York Rangers with the 20th overall pick out of the OHL’s Oshawa Generals in 2008. He would jump to professional hockey after one more season in juniors, recording 37 points in 80 games in 2009-10 and earning All-Rookie Team honors.
Unfortunately, while Del Zotto would turn into a serviceable NHL defenseman for over a decade, he didn’t develop into the potential bonafide top-pair player he hinted he could be at the beginning of his career. He would only beat his rookie totals once in New York, recording ten goals, 31 assists and 41 points in 77 games in 2011-12 before dropping to a bottom-pairing role in the 2013-14 campaign. Then-Rangers general manager Glen Sather dealt him to the Nashville Predators for shutdown defender Kevin Klein in a one-for-one swap in January of that season.
Things didn’t go much better for Del Zotto in a brief stint with Nashville to close out the season, which saw his ice time continue to decrease as he recorded five points in 25 games and a -4 rating. He was due a qualifying offer of $2.9MM that season with his contract expiring, which the Predators didn’t issue, and he signed a one-year, $1.3MM contract with the Philadelphia Flyers in August 2014. It turned out to be a prudent choice for Del Zotto, who, for a brief time, recaptured his former glory in Philadelphia. He notched 32 points in 64 games during his first season there while averaging nearly 22 minutes per game, but again fizzled out over the following two seasons with the Flyers.
After signing as an unrestricted free agent with the Vancouver Canucks in 2017, Del Zotto would play stints with the Anaheim Ducks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators, and St. Louis Blues in depth roles until the 2021-22 season. While he didn’t appear in any postseason contests, Del Zotto was on the Blues’ roster for their 2019 Stanley Cup championship.
2021-22 was when it became clear Del Zotto’s days of playing at the highest level were drawing to a close. Despite recording a respectable 13 points in 26 games with Ottawa and posting decent possession numbers, the Senators waived him. They assigned him to AHL Belleville, where he managed over a point per game. It was enough to land him another NHL contract for 2022-23 with the Florida Panthers, but they waived him pre-season and didn’t include him on the opening night roster. He would record two goals and 10 points in 25 games with their AHL affiliate in Charlotte before they traded him back to Anaheim in the days leading up to Christmas in a three-way swap of minor-league players, including the Detroit Red Wings. Del Zotto closed the season with a strong 31 points in 40 games for AHL San Diego.
But without ever getting a callup to the NHL throughout the season despite a paper-thin defense in Anaheim, Del Zotto has opted to step away from the game. His 736 games rank 18th among players from the 2008 draft class at the time of his retirement, during which he recorded 63 goals, 199 assists, 262 points, and averaged 20:03 per game over the years. PHR congratulates Del Zotto on his lengthy career in the pros and wishes him the best in retirement.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Minor Transactions: 09/06/23
Today was a busy morning in the hockey news cycle, with the Arizona Coyotes and Pittsburgh Penguins making notable front-office moves while the Toronto Maple Leafs added some potential scoring depth on a professional tryout. There’s also some notable movement on the transactions wire from other leagues, however, so let’s dive into today’s moves:
- After two post-draft seasons with the OHL’s Barrie Colts, Vegas Golden Knights defense prospect Artur Cholach is staying in junior hockey for one more season with the USHL’s Sioux Falls Stampede, per an announcement from the Colts. Cholach, 20, remains unsigned after the Golden Knights selected him in the sixth round, 190th overall, in the 2021 NHL Draft. His exclusive signing rights did not expire this summer because he only played OHL hockey after his draft date – he played his draft season with Sokil Kyiv in the Ukrainian Hockey League, meaning they have until June 1, 2025, to sign him to an entry-level contract. Over the past two seasons with Barrie, Cholach scored four goals and added 30 assists for 34 points in 116 contests whilst recording a cumulative +9 rating. He also notched eight assists in five games for the Ukrainian national junior team at the 2022 Division 1B World Junior Championship.
- The AHL’s Coachella Valley Firebirds have signed defenseman Ryan Jones to a one-year deal, according to a league release. Touted as a physical two-way defender out of the USHL’s Lincoln Stars in the 2016 NHL Draft, the Pittsburgh Penguins selected him in the fourth round but did not sign him to an entry-level contract when he finished his collegiate career at the University of Nebraska-Omaha in 2020. He’s spent the three seasons since on AHL deals, including the last two seasons with the Syracuse Crunch, recording 27 points, 114 penalty minutes and a +4 rating in 137 games. Now a full-time bottom-pairing defender at the AHL level, Jones, 27, will look to grasp a spot on the Seattle Kraken’s AHL affiliate, who already added Mitch Reinke to their defense corps by way of their parent club earlier this week.
- Veteran goaltender Kevin Poulin announced his retirement on his Instagram page. The 33-year-old played in 50 NHL games over five seasons with the Islanders before embarking on a bit of a unique journey overseas, spending time in Kazakhstan, Croatia, Switzerland, Germany, and Sweden. Poulin spent the last two years playing on an AHL deal in Montreal’s system, playing primarily with AHL Laval.
This page may be updated throughout the day.