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Summer Synopsis: Pittsburgh Penguins

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There is no gentle way to put this, the Pittsburgh Penguins were a mess last season. Despite having Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby both healthy for the first time in years, the Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006 and the first time during the Malkin/Crosby/Kris Letang era.

Penguins ownership addressed the disappointing season by relieving Ron Hextall and Brian Burke of their duties and set out to rebuild their hockey operations. They succeeded by hiring Kyle Dubas to run the organization’s hockey ops and he kickstarted a dramatic change in the team’s on-ice personnel.

No one knows if Dubas’ moves will work, but there is no arguing that he had a plan from the outset of the offseason and he has completely rebuilt the Penguins’ defense and bottom-six forward group. Whether it will be enough remains to be seen as the Penguins play in the most difficult division in hockey and the Eastern Conference is sure to be a buzzsaw this season.

Draft

1-14: C Brayden Yager, Moose Jaw (WHL)
3-91: D Emil Pieniniemi, Finland (SM-sarja)
5-142: RW Mikhail Ilyin, Severstal Cherepovets (KHL)
6-174: C Cooper Foster, Ottawa 67’s (OHL)
7-217: LW Emil Järventie, Finland SaiPa (Liiga)
7-223: D Kalle Kangas, Finland

Dubas opted to hang on to Pittsburgh’s highest first-round pick in quite some time rather than dealing it away to shed salary or acquire an impact player. While Yager will not likely make an impact during the Crosby/Malkin era that doesn’t mean he won’t be an impact player for the Penguins in the not-too-distant future. Many people expect the Penguins to go into a full rebuild in the next few years and Yager could become a good building block as he possesses terrific leadership skills and has a very high offensive ceiling. Yager does come with some risk as well, but high risk and high reward was a theme with the Penguins’ picks in the 2023 NHL entry draft.

Pittsburgh opted to take Pieniniemi in the third round and he brings a lot of mobility to the Penguins’ back end as well as good defensive instincts and a lot of intensity. Some have him projected as a possible top-4 defenseman in the future, but his development would be key in him reaching that kind of ceiling.

Mikhail Ilyin is an interesting pick in the fifth round as he is currently playing out his KHL contract in Russia. He doesn’t possess a very good shot but does have good offensive instincts and can be a playmaker from the center position.

The Penguins don’t have much in the prospect’s cupboard, but they did well to add some players with a lot of upside but that carry some risk. For Dubas and his draft position, he almost needs to take some gambles to see if he can hit on the next big thing for the Penguins.

Trade Acquisitions

F Dillon Hamaliuk (San Jose)
D Erik Karlsson (San Jose)
F Rem Pitlick (Montreal)
F Reilly Smith (Las Vegas)

It seemed very improbable the Penguins would be able to land Karlsson when the rumor popped up on July 1st. They spent most of their available cap space in free agency and the door appeared to slam shut on those rumblings. Except they never went away, and as the summer pressed on it seemed more likely the three-time Norris Trophy winner could in fact land with the Penguins. San Jose could never seem to get a trade market going for Karlsson’s services and Dubas and company remained diligent in their pursuit. Finally, on August 6th the deal was completed, and the Penguins were able to give up very little in terms of futures and somehow also managed to shed a lot of dead weight from their salary cap ledger. It was a major win for the Penguins, even if adding Karlsson comes with a mountain of risk.

How Karlsson will be used remains to be seen, but current power-play quarterback Letang has already said he will shift from the point to allow Karlsson to take his place. That alone should be huge for Pittsburgh as their powerplay was underwhelming last season, especially given the personnel they deployed with the man advantage.

Smith was also a big add for the Penguins at the cost of just a third-round pick. He will make for a terrific replacement in the Penguins’ top-six forward group and could be in line for a career year. Smith is fresh off winning the Stanley Cup with the Vegas Golden Knights and will likely start the year with either Crosby or Malkin. While the 32-year-old isn’t a natural goal scorer, he is more than capable with the puck and is dynamic off the rush. He comes with two years left on his contract at $5MM per season, leaving little downside for the Penguins in this trade.

UFA Signings

C Noel Acciari (three years, $6MM)
D Will Butcher (one year, $775K)*
C Lars Eller (two years, $4.9MM)
D Ryan Graves (six years, $27MM)
G Magnus Hellberg (one year, $785K)
C Vinnie Hinostroza (one year, $775K)
G Tristan Jarry (five years, $26.875MM)
F Andreas Johnsson (one year, $800K)
F Joona Koppanen (two years, $1.55MM)
G Alex Nedeljkovic (one year, $1.5MM)
F Matt Nieto (two years, $1.8MM)
D Ryan Shea (one year, $775K)
F Radim Zahorna (one year, $775K)

*-denotes two-way contract

The Penguins had a decent amount of cap space entering the offseason but had a lot of holes to fill on a team that just wasn’t very good last year. Dubas quickly went to work in addressing his top defensive pairing, solidifying his goaltending, as well as building depth in the team’s bottom six forward group.

Ryan Graves is not a perfect top-pairing defenseman, but on Pittsburgh he doesn’t need to be. His job will be to fill the hole that Pittsburgh tried to fill by committee last season unsuccessfully. Graves will pair with Letang and should form a solid top-defensive pairing for the next few years. Graves won’t be asked to provide a ton of offense from the back end but is capable of chipping in having posted 26 points last year in 78 games. He will also benefit from getting more offensive zone starts as in New Jersey he started almost 63% of his shifts in the defensive zone.

Some people might think the Karlsson trade was Dubas’ biggest gamble, but I would venture to say it was the signing of netminder Jarry to a long-term deal. Jarry is a two-time all-star and has shown glimpses of being an above-average NHL netminder. However, those moments and accolades have been sandwiched between injuries and very inconsistent play. All that to say, signing Jarry was a risk for Pittsburgh. The goaltending market wasn’t great this offseason with left Dubas with few options and he went with the familiar one for the club. Whether it will pan out remains to be seen, but in his time with Pittsburgh Jarry has been unable to get the Penguins out of the first round, and this past season he couldn’t even get the team to the first round.

Nedeljkovic was an interesting signing for the Penguins as it cemented the departure of long-time backup Casey DeSmith. Nedeljkovic has had runs where he has looked like an NHL starter but has also had longer runs where he’s been run of out the game on a nightly basis. Which goaltender turns up in Pittsburgh will be something to keep an eye on, especially if Jarry has a year like he did last year.

RFA Re-Signings

F Jonathan Gruden (one year, $775K)*
F Alex Nylander (one year, $775K)
F Drew O’Connor (two years, $1.85MM)
F Valtteri Puustinen (one year, $775K)*
D Ty Smith (one year, $775K)

*-denotes two-way contract

O’Connor is a player the Penguins have been high on for several years. He was a highly sought-after college free agent and has had showings that would make you think he is an NHL player. Unfortunately, those glimpses have come only a handful of times and are always split up by long stretches of play where O’Connor looks invisible on the ice. O’Connor has eight goals and nine assists in 78 career NHL games and at 25-years-old he is no longer a prospect. He will be given every chance in Pittsburgh to show that he is a solution in the bottom six and with his size and speed he should be able to carve out a role. However, if he can’t, he will likely find himself shuttled back and forth between the NHL and the AHL.

Much like O’Connor, Nylander is a player who has shown glimpses of being an NHLer but hasn’t been able to put it all together. The Penguins tried Nylander in their top six last year in place of Bryan Rust, and he looked fine for a few games but didn’t appear to be a long-term answer. He is likely not suited for a bottom-six role, so if he is going to be in an NHL lineup it should be in more of a scoring role. Pittsburgh is banking on growth from Nylander this offseason and would likely love for him to be able to slide into the Penguins top-9 in some type of scoring capacity. But given his inability to be an impact player up until this point in his career, it’s a long shot at best.

Departures

F Josh Archibald (unsigned UFA)
C Nick Bonino (New York, one year, $800K)
F Drake Caggiula (Edmonton, two years, $1.55MM)*
G Casey DeSmith (traded to Montreal)
D Peter Diliberatore (PTO Arizona)
D Brian Dumoulin (Seattle, two years, $6.3MM)
F Mikael Granlund (traded to San Jose)
F Danton Heinen (PTO Boston)
D Dmitry Kulikov (Florida, one year, $1MM)
F Nathan Legare (traded to Montreal)
D Josh Maniscalco (Chicago (AHL), one year)
D Jeff Petry (traded to Montreal)
F Ryan Poehling (Philadelphia, one year, $1.4MM)
D Jan Rutta (traded to San Jose)
G Dustin Tokarski (Buffalo, one year, $775K)*
F Jason Zucker (Arizona, one year, $5.3MM)

Dubas moved on from a lot of Penguins players turning over nearly half of their NHL roster. The most notable loss is probably Zucker who had a terrific final season in Pittsburgh posting 27 goals and 21 assists in 78 games while being one of the few Penguins to show a pulse on most nights. Zucker had injury problems that plagued most of his time in Pittsburgh but was finally able to remain healthy last season. Dubas did well to replace Zucker with Smith, who should be able to replicate or better Zucker’s production.

Dumoulin was a long-time Penguins defenseman who was a big part of their back-to-back Stanley Cup wins. But his play really dropped off his last few seasons in Pittsburgh as he started to show his age and really struggled in high-leverage situations. Dumoulin along with Jeff Carter had become lightning rods for criticism as fans found it difficult to move past the glaring errors in the defensive zone that seemed to happen on a nightly basis. Dumoulin should be better insulated in Seattle and might see better results with the Kraken.

Granlund was never likely to fit in Pittsburgh given his lack of footspeed and forechecking. His skillset never really suited the Penguins system, and his acquisition was universally panned just moments after it happened. Granlund had just one goal and four assists in 21 games with the Penguins and was probably a big reason why Ron Hextall is no longer with the team.

Salary Cap Outlook

A lot of people have written the Penguins off as being at the end of their run as a contender. However next summer they have few impact players to sign and could have over $20MM in cap space available to them. Depending on how this season goes, the Penguins could load up for one more run in the Crosby/Malkin era. Dubas will have a lot of options going forward and could even add a long-term impact player in season, so long as he makes a dollar-for-dollar trade.

Key Questions

How Will Karlsson Fit In? The Karlsson trade has been widely viewed as a big win for the Penguins but how the trade will ultimately be viewed comes down to results on the ice. If Karlsson can quarterback the Penguins’ powerplay to much better results and show decent results at 5 on 5, it will be a big improvement for Pittsburgh. If his defensive lapses start to become glaring and he can’t improve the powerplay, it could be viewed in a negative light. It should be an interesting question going forward.

Can Jarry Be A Number One? Jarry was gifted the starter’s role when Pittsburgh dealt Matt Murray to the Ottawa Senators in 2020. Since that time, he’s been the default number-one goaltender for the Penguins because they’ve never had a better option. With him signed to a long-term lucrative extension, it’s obvious that Penguins management sees Jarry as their number one goalie. But will he provide the team with number-one goaltending?

Can Crosby And Malkin Stay Healthy? It’s been rare for the Penguins to have the services of both Crosby and Malkin for an entire season, however, last year they did, and they missed the playoffs. They are unlikely to have both players for a season given their age and their track records with injuries. Crosby has changed his game and is less explosive to the net, however, he has suffered fewer injuries recently. Malkin has tried to adapt his game as well. But can both men stay healthy for another season? Time will tell.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nikolai Kovalenko Could Join Avalanche After KHL Season

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Colorado Avalanche General Manager Chris MacFarland spoke with the DNVR Podcast recently regarding forward prospect Nikolai Kovalenko. During the interview MacFarland spoke about the team’s excitement when the Russian signed his two-year entry-level contract, and that they were going to be paying a lot of attention to his play over the next few months. MacFarland said the plan is to have Kovalenko come over at the expiration of his current season with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of the KHL and where he ends up is wide open.

The 23-year-old is on a tear to start the season with three goals and five assists in six games and is coming off a season in which he posted 21 goals and 33 assists in 56 games. He has been dressing as a regular in the KHL since 2017-18 but hasn’t been much of an offensive threat until the past two seasons. His case could be that of a late bloomer as teams didn’t really project this much offensive upside for Kovalenko, which might explain why he fell to the Avalanche in the sixth round of the 2018 NHL entry draft.

Kovalenko was born in the United States when his father Andrei Kovalenko was an NHLer with the Carolina Hurricanes but was ultimately raised in Russia and has played hockey there throughout his career. From 2015-2018 Kovalenko played in the MHL which is Russia’s junior league. He dressed in 72 games notching 17 goals and 33 assists while helping Yaroslavl win back-to-back MHL championships.

Kovalenko may be a long shot to make the Avalanche when he does come over to North America next year. Colorado identified their forward depth as an area of concern this summer and made several moves to address it by acquiring Jonathan Drouin, Miles Wood, and Tomas Tatar through free agency, as well as Ross Colton and Ryan Johansen via trade.

Phil Kessel Unlikely To Sign With Pittsburgh Penguins

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A rumor that hasn’t been going away the past month is a Phil Kessel reunion with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Kessel was largely beloved in Pittsburgh during his four years with the Penguins and was a huge part of their back-to-back Stanley Cup wins in 2016 and 2017. Kessel had a very good claim to the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2016 that ultimately went to Sidney Crosby and was equally as effective in 2017 on the Penguins’ path to a repeat. He was an electric playmaker that fit the city of Pittsburgh like a glove.

But with the rumors flying Josh Yohe of The Athletic has poured cold water on the notion of the Penguins signing the now 35-year-old Kessel. Yohe writes that he doesn’t see the Penguins signing Kessel for a number of reasons. This echoes what Dave Molinari wrote last week in Pittsburgh Hockey Now where he said what Kessel brings to the table doesn’t fit with what General Manager Kyle Dubas and Head Coach Mike Sullivan are trying to do.

Both Yohe and Molinari’s assessments make sense given the roadblocks that would impede a potential return. The Penguins have signed a lot of bottom-six forwards for this upcoming season and appear to be favoring defensively responsible players, something Kessel has never been accused of being.

There is also the issue of Kessel leaving Pittsburgh on bad terms when he was traded in the summer of 2019. Many outside reports indicated that Kessel and Sullivan had a difficult relationship, however, both men have said that those reports were overblown by people who were outside of the situation.

The last hurdle, and perhaps the biggest one is the play of Kessel since he was traded by the Penguins to the Arizona Coyotes in 2019, he just hasn’t been as good as he was in Pittsburgh. Kessel has never taken great care of himself despite being the NHL Iron Man, and this has really shown in his play on the ice. Since the trade, Kessel has topped 14 goals just once, and 50 points once as well. Last season he found himself a healthy scratch for the majority of the playoffs as he watched the Vegas Golden Knights march to the Stanley Cup.

While a reunion would be fun and would add to what is going to be a wildly entertaining season of hockey in Pittsburgh, it doesn’t seem like it is going to happen, which will break the hearts of some Penguins fans.

New Jersey Devils Sign Keith Kinkaid

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The New Jersey Devils are bringing back a familiar face on a two-way contract for the upcoming season. The Devils formally announced a deal with Keith Kinkaid this morning as he will likely serve as depth to the teams current goaltenders. New Jersey’s Executive Vice President/General Manager Tom Fitzgerald made the announcement that will see Kinkaid take home $775K at the NHL level and $350K at the AHL level.

The undrafted Kinkaid originally signed an ELC with the Devils back in April of 2011 and spent four years shuttling back and forth between the Devils AHL affiliate Albany and the big club in New Jersey. The now 34-year-old posted very respectable numbers in his first full NHL season in 2017-18 when he had a record of 26-10-3 with a .913 save percentage and a 2.77 goals-against average.

Unfortunately for the Farmingville, New York native the wheels came off in his second full season and the Devils dealt him to Columbus in February of 2019. Since then, Kinkaid has had five different NHL stops and hasn’t been a regular NHLer.

Kinkaid has spent a great deal of time in the AHL the past few seasons and last year dressed in 27 games split between the Colorado Eagles and Providence Bruins posting a 12-10-4 record to go along with a 2.92 goals against average and a .911 save percentage.

Kinkaid figures to serve as depth for the Devils and should be a good insurance policy if they run into injury problems in the crease. New Jersey will start the season with Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid as their NHL netminders barring an injury between now and opening night.

Sharks Best Positioned To Win First Overall Pick

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Harman Dayal of The Athletic writes that the San Jose Sharks are the team that is best positioned to win the draft lottery in 2024 and ultimately the first overall pick. Dayal ranked the top five teams with the best chance to do so, and in his estimation, he believes that the Chicago Blackhawks will have the second-best odds, the Philadelphia Flyers third, Anaheim Ducks fourth, and the Montreal Canadiens rounding out the top 5.

Given the offseason that the Sharks have had, the rankings are hardly a surprise. The Sharks dealt the reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a lot of bad roster players and several draft picks. The move to embrace a full rebuild was the correct one given where the Sharks are in their roster construction, but it is going to lead to a lot of lean years and in Dayal’s view this one could be the toughest.

After subtracting Karlsson, the Sharks added Mikael Granlund, Mike Hoffman, Jan Rutta, Filip Zadina, and Anthony Duclair. While several of those players still have something to offer a team, none of them appear likely to be with the Sharks long-term and most of the players will be asked to play this season in a roster spot that doesn’t match their current skillset. Take Rutta for example, he was a terrific sixth defenseman on the Stanley Cup winning Tampa Bay Lightning squads but struggled last season in Pittsburgh when he was asked to play in the top-4 in the absence of Kris Letang and Jeff Petry. Rutta was exposed as a liability on most nights in that role, and this year will be asked to play on San Jose’s top defensive pairing. It’s going to be a tough year for the Sharks’ defense as they likely don’t have a single defenseman on their roster that could play in the top-4 of a playoff team.

Zadina is also going to be asked to play a role that doesn’t match his skillset as he is currently pencilled in to play in the Sharks top line. He had trouble finding minutes in Detroit and was a healthy scratch at times. Now he will be asked to dress against opponents’ top units, which might make for a tough year for the 23-year-old who is trying to rebuild his stock after struggling with the Red Wings.

Outside of Duclair, every player the Sharks acquired this offseason was a lightning rod for criticism with their former clubs. Granlund in Pittsburgh was the move that probably got Ron Hextall fired as he didn’t mix with the Penguins, Hoffman wore out his welcome in Montreal and didn’t provide much besides a shot. Dayal is predicting that all these ingredients will be a recipe for disaster in San Jose, but it could also be the shot in the arm that their rebuild needs if they are in fact able to win the draft lottery and secure the first overall pick in 2024.

Seth Jones Wants To Be Blackhawks Next Captain

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The Chicago Blackhawks don’t currently have a captain after long-time captain Jonathan Toews wasn’t re-signed this summer. Toews was Chicago’s captain from July of 2008 until April of this year when the season ended. During his time the Blackhawks had an unparalleled run of success on the ice winning three Stanley Cups.

Now with the captaincy vacant, defenseman Seth Jones has expressed an interest in the role telling Tracey Myers of NHL.com that he always wanted to be a captain after learning from great leaders such as Toews, Shea Weber, and Nick Foligno. Jones added that he understands his role in the room and will be a leader whether he has a letter on his jersey or not.

It’s an interesting statement from the 28-year-old rearguard as the Blackhawks are early in a big rebuild, but that process has certainly been accelerated with the team’s draft lottery win that allowed them to pick Connor Bedard first overall. It’s also unlikely to happen given that the Blackhawks will probably keep the captaincy vacant until Bedard is ready to take the reins in a few years.

Chicago’s captaincy may ultimately play out the same way it did with the Pittsburgh Penguins 18 years ago when Sidney Crosby began his career. At the time Mario Lemieux was the Penguins captain, but he didn’t make it through the 2005-06 season as he retired midseason. The Penguins then left the captaincy vacant until they gave it to Crosby in May 2007 after his second NHL season.

The other complications with Jones when it comes to the captaincy could be his contract status coupled with his play on the ice. Jones has long had the reputation as an elite, minute-eating defenseman, and while the latter is true, the former is much more complicated. Jones had a disastrous end to his time in Columbus and was dealt to Chicago. He quickly signed an eight-year $76MM contract with the Blackhawks that was panned by some and praised by others. There is no doubt that Jones provides a good amount of offensive punch, but his defensive play has been problematic as evidenced by his -75 the past two seasons.

Jones is entering the second year of his deal and it has already started to feel like he could become a buyout candidate before the end of the contract. It felt like an overpayment when it was signed and it really looks like one now. And with Jones pushing 30 his play is more likely to get worse before it gets better. Putting the captaincy on him now could become a PR nightmare in a few years if his play were to drop off and lead to a buyout.

Summer Synopsis: Ottawa Senators

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There was a lot of excitement in Ottawa last fall when the Senators took to the ice to open the 2022-23 season. Outside of the Calgary Flames, general manager Pierre Dorion and the Senators were widely regarded as the winner of the offseason. But, winners of the offseason don’t always win in season, and much like the Flames, the Senators struggled to put it together on the ice. The team took a while to find their game and when they finally did form a cohesive unit, they found themselves well outside of the playoff picture. They did climb back into the thick of things that last few months of the season, but for the most part it was a lost season in a long line of the lost seasons. But it was not without its positives. Many individual Senators players took big steps. Tim Stützle took monumental steps to establishing himself as a bonafide superstar, Jake Sanderson showed he was the worthy of the hype, Brady Tkachuk continued to put up good offensive numbers and matured on and off the ice. The only thing missing was a playoff spot, and the Senators looked poised to chase one down this season.

Draft

4-108: D Hoyt Stanley, Victoria Grizzlies (BCHL)
5-140: D Matthew Andonovski, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)
7-204: F Owen Beckner, Salmon Arm Silverbacks (BCHL)
7-207: G Vladimir Nikitin, Barys Nur-Sultan (KAZ)
7-215: G Nicholas Vantassell, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL)

The Senators clearly saw a need to build up the backend as they drafted two defensemen and two goalies in the 2023 NHL entry draft. They also seemed to want to add size as both goaltenders stand over 6’4” while both the defensemen they drafted are over 6’2”. The Senators have typically struggled in the net and have never had much stability outside of Craig Anderson’s run. Drafting in the later rounds may not prove fruitful, but with the unpredictability of the goaltending position, it’s worth a chance.

The Senators didn’t have any picks in the first three rounds of this year’s draft after trading them away in various moves the past year or so, but with the pipeline of prospects they already have, they likely aren’t too concerned.

Trade Acquisitions

F – Dominik Kubalik (from Detroit)
D – Donovan Sebrango (from Detroit)

Kubalik and Sebrango both come over from the Red Wings in the Alex DeBrincat trade this summer and figure to be part of the Senators future.

Sebrango was born in Ottawa and is unlikely to make much an impact with the big club anytime soon. He hasn’t shown much at the AHL level and spent a considerable amount of time in the ECHL last season. He is just 21 years old so it wouldn’t be fair to write him off just yet given that he’s only three years removed from being drafted in the third round.

Kubalik on the other hand will likely get a look on the Senators second line which could be great news for the 28-year-old. Kubalik is just three years removed from potting 30 goals as a rookie and had a decent year last year with 20 goals and 25 assists in 81 games. He is probably going to see a reduction in the quality of power play time he is used to but will likely have the opportunity to play with better players 5 on 5. Kubalik won’t match DeBrincat’s offensive numbers, but he should put up good numbers at a fraction of the cost. The Senators didn’t do great in the Debrincat trade, especially considering what they had to give up acquiring the player. Despite that, Kubalik should fit into the Senators middle six and provide some good depth offense.

UFA Signings

F Josh Currie (one year, $775K)*
F Matthew Highmore (one year, $775K)*
G Joonas Korpisalo (five years, $20MM)
F Zack MacEwen (three years, $2.325MM)
C Garrett Pilon (one year, $775K)*
RW Vladimir Tarasenko (one year, $5MM)

The Senators went into the offseason knowing that they needed to improve in net if they wanted to have any chance to make the playoffs in the 2023-24 season. They did not receive NHL goaltending this past season, and while team defense was also an issue, their netminding left a lot to be desired. The Senators opted to give term and a good chunk of change to Korpisalo in hopes of him being the solution. Korpisalo was terrific last season with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Los Angeles Kings, however with the Kings he was able to play behind one of the best defensive teams in the league, something that can’t be said of the Senators. The Senators made a big bet with the 29-year-old and will be hoping that get last year’s version of him, and not the version he was during his first seven years in the NHL.

The Senators opted to take the savings from DeBrincat and sign sniper Tarasenko. Between he and Kubalik they should be able to make up the offense that Ottawa is losing with Debrincat now in Detroit. Tarasenko isn’t the player he was once but should be good for 25 goals and something around 50 points. Tarasenko is just a year removed from a 34-goal campaign and seems to have overcome some of the shoulder problems that severely damaged his play. In Ottawa he won’t be asked to drive a line and should fit in well with some of the Senators younger stars.

RFA Re-Signings

D Erik Brannstrom (one year, $2MM)
D Jacob Bernard-Docker (two years, $1.61MM)
G Kevin Mandolese (one year, $775K)*

*-denotes two-way contract

Brannstrom may never live up to the hype that surrounded him when he was traded to Ottawa as part of the package to acquire Mark Stone. Brannstrom came in with a lot of expectations, and fair or not, he hasn’t lived up to them. That doesn’t mean he isn’t an effective player; it means that he was overvalued and hasn’t turned out to be what Ottawa thought they were getting in the Stone swap. But Brannstrom is still an effective player and could be part of the future on Ottawa’s back end. Brannstrom dressed in a career-high 74 games last season and posted two goals and 16 assists while playing over 16 minutes a night. The 24-year-old will always be undersized, but his skating and skill should remain a valuable asset for the near future. Brannstrom is unlikely to crack Ottawa’s top 4 anytime soon given who is ahead of him on the depth chart, but it is hard to say if he is even suited for that role. Brannstrom may be best suited for a bottom-pairing role on a very good team, something he will find in Ottawa this season.

Departures

F Julien Gauthier (Islanders, two years, $1.575MM)
F Scott Sabourin (San Jose, two years, $1.55MM)
F Patrick Brown (Boston, two years, $1.6MM)
D Nick Holden (unsigned UFA)
F Jake Lucchini (Minnesota, one year, $775K)*
G Antoine Bibeau (signed with AIK IF, Allsv)
D Jonathan Aspirot (unsigned)
F Derick Brassard (unsigned)
G Cam Talbot (Los Angeles, one year, $1MM)
F Olle Alsing (Signed with Leksands IF of SHL)
F Dylan Gambrell (Toronto, one year, $775K)
F Austin Watson (Tampa Bay, PTO)
F Viktor Lodin (IK Oskarshamn, SHL)

The Senators didn’t lose much from their lineup at all this offseason. Most of the pieces that walked out the door had run their course in Ottawa or were past their best-before date and didn’t have much of a future with the Senators. The biggest loss for Ottawa was probably Talbot, but during his time with the Senators he struggled mightily and didn’t give Ottawa what they were hoping for when they trade for him last summer.

Outside of Talbot most of the departing Senators are easily replaceable and should hurt the product on the ice this season.

Salary Cap Outlook

Much like the New York Rangers, we don’t need to look too far into the past to remember when the Ottawa Senators were viewed as a team with ample cap space, good young players and a ton of draft picks and prospects. The prospects arrived and the cap space dried up quick and now Ottawa will enter next summer with less than $15MM in available cap room and just 14 players signed for 2024-25. Ottawa could find themselves tight against the cap going forward, however they have almost all their stars and strong depth pieces locked in long term. The salary cap outlook is okay, it’s not the best, but it could certainly be worse.

Key Questions

Can The Senators Make The Playoffs? There have been a few teams in the past two decades who drafted high-end first-round picks and could never find any playoff success, the recent incarnations of the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs come to mind. The Ottawa Senators are hoping they can find success sooner than their Canadian counterparts, but they must make it to the playoffs first. Ottawa will be in tough this year as the Eastern Conference is a buzzsaw. There are possibly 11 teams in the Eastern Conference that are playoff teams, and three of them will miss out. The Senators are primed to make it this year, but can they?

Is Korpisalo The Answer In Nets? Giving money and term to a goaltender is always risky, Pierre Dorion knows this well (Matt Murray anyone?). But at some point, you must pull the trigger and make a move to solidify your goaltending, especially with your team ready to contend. Dorion knew he had to address this, but only time will tell if Korpisalo was the answer to the question.

Will D.J. Smith Last The Year? Coach Smith has won before in other places, but he has yet to win in the NHL with the Senators. This is a make-or-break season for the coach, he has had a lot of leash thus far, but at this point, the Senators are a playoffs-or-bust team. Should they stumble out of the gate, Smith could find himself on the hotseat very quick. But even though he is likely on the hot seat, Smith will be given some rope to manage this team through the season. The players and managers have all said publicly that he is the guy, and unless something changes behind closed doors, there is no reason to believe they will dump him in season unless the team absolutely falls apart in the early part of the season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Summer Synopsis: New York Rangers

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Last summer the New York Rangers expectations were sky high as they had just come off a season in which they lost in the Eastern Conference Finals. Many viewed the Rangers as a Stanley Cup contender, as did their management group who went all in for trades to acquire Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko. The club ultimately failed in their bid to bring Lord Stanley back to Broadway and entered this season with tempered expectations after firing Gerald Gallant and struggling to find adequate replacements for a lot of their departing players. Now, the sky isn’t exactly falling in New York City, as they still have Igor Shesterkin manning the net, and they lured Peter Laviolette in to replace the departing Gallant. Couple this with a blueline that still boasts Adam Fox and a forward group that still has Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin and you have a very solid team. Albeit one that is just outside of the upper echelon of NHL teams.

Draft

1-23: RW Gabriel Perreault, U.S. National Team Development Program (USNTDP)
3-90: D Drew Fortescue, U.S. National Team Development Program (USNTDP)
5-152: D Rasmus Larsson, Västerås IK J20 (J20 Nationell)
6-178: C Dylan Roobroeck, Oshawa (OHL)
6-183: LW Ty Henricks, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)

The son of former NHLer Yanic Perreault has drawn comparisons to Lucas Raymond recently and is projected by some to be a perennial 70-point forward. While those expectations are lofty for a late first-round pick, many were surprised that he fell that far down the draft board. Perreault is headed to Boston College where he figures to play at least a few seasons before he turns pro. His skating has improved a lot in recent seasons but is certainly not his strongest attribute. Many scouts have said his skill and hockey sense was top-5 in this draft.

Fortescue was teammates with Perreault at the National Team Development Program and is regarded as a good passer and someone who can act as a quarterback from the backend. His skating isn’t particularly good, and he certainly needs to add to his 176-pound frame, but should he be given proper time to develop he could very well be a bottom pairing defenseman for the Rangers in the next half decade.

Trade Acquisitions

N/A

UFA Signings

C Alex Belzile (two years, $1.55MM)*
C Nick Bonino (one year, $800K)
D Nikolas Brouillard (one year, $775K)*
D Erik Gustafsson (one year, $825K)
D Mac Hollowell (one year, $775K)*
D Connor Mackey (one year, $775K)*
F Riley Nash (two years, $1.55MM)*
F Tyler Pitlick (one year, $787.5K)
G Jonathan Quick (one year, $825K)
F Blake Wheeler (one year, $800K)

*-denotes two-way contract

The Rangers didn’t have the cap space to make any major additions and didn’t really have much cap space to replace any of their departing star players. The team was hamstrung by a flat salary cap and did most of their shopping in the bargain bin.
Blake Wheeler was a terrific signing. At $800K (plus bonuses) he will be a solid middle six addition for New York who can easily chip in 50-60 points. At 37 years old he is unlikely to morph into the perennial 90-point player he was a few years ago, but he could provide some of the offense the team lost with the departures of Kane and Tarasenko.

The Rangers opted to pass on some of the more expensive options on the free agent market to sign Jonathan Quick, and while he brings a wealth of experience, he has been a below-average netminder for about a half-decade. New York could no doubt shop in season if they need to find an adequate backup, which they may need to do if Quick’s numbers are anything close to what they were this past year.

Speaking of experience, Bonino also brings a ton of it to the Rangers and should be a decent option for their fourth-line center role. The 35-year-old used to be a perennial 30–35-point third liner, but at this juncture of his career, he is more of a 20-point player. Bonino had a short-lived reunion with the Pittsburgh Penguins after the trade deadline but quickly found himself injured and was not re-signed. If Bonino can regain his 2021-22 form, he could be a steal at $800K for New York.

RFA Re-Signings

D Ty Emberson (one year, $775K)*
F Anton Blidh (two years, $1.55MM)*
D Zachary Jones (two years, $1.625K)*
LW Alexis Lafreniere (two years, $4.65MM)
D K’Andre Miller (two years, $7.744MM)
D Brandon Scanlin (one year, $775K)*

*-denotes two-way contract

Lafreniere has simply not lived up to the expectations of a first-overall pick. He knows it, the Rangers know it, and both sides would surely love for things to be different. But, now with a bridge contract in hand, the 21-year-old has an opportunity to prove he is worthy of much more. Lafreniere hasn’t found anything close to the offense he displayed in junior, but he has steadily put up better offensive numbers in every NHL season. Should he reach another gear next season he could approach 50 points and line himself up to cash in just two years from now.

Miller likely wanted and likely deserved a long-term contract extension but had to settle for a bridge contract and the Rangers simply ran out of dollars to allocate. Miller established himself as a rookie in 2020-21 putting up five goals and seven assists in 53 games. In his second season, he emerged as an option in the Rangers top-4 and formed a formidable pairing with Jacob Trouba. It was there that Miller began to use his speed to his advantage as well as insert himself physically on many more occasions. Miller also started to find his offensive game this past season as he started to find more confidence with the puck in the offensive zone. Miller posted nine goals and 34 assists in 79 games and showed that he could provide much more to the Rangers than steady defensive play. The Rangers don’t have a great left side on defense and will likely rely on him a lot this season. Should Miller put up numbers similar to this past year, his next contract could end up pricing him out of New York.

Departures

F Ryan Carpenter (San Jose Sharks, one year, $775K)*
F Tim Gettinger (Detroit, one year, $775K)*
D Libor Hajek (Pittsburgh, PTO)
G Jaroslav Halak (unsigned UFA)
D Wyatt Kalynuk (St. Louis, one year, $775K)*
F Patrick Kane (unsigned UFA)
C Patrick Khodorenko (unsigned UFA)
F Will Lockwood (Florida, two years, $1.55MM)*
F Tyler Motte (Tampa Bay, one year, $800K)
F C.J. Smith (unsigned UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko (Ottawa, one year, $5MM)
D Cooper Zech (unsigned UFA)

Up front, Kane and Tarasenko are the notable losses and will likely create a void in the offense. The Rangers did well to replace some of their offense with Wheeler, but a lot of goals have come out of their lineup.  Although they will certainly miss the depth scoring, Kane and Tarasenko never felt like a natural fit in New York and turned out to be overpayments. The Rangers were right to shuffle the furniture and although they lost some goals on paper, they may have a better mix without Kane and Tarasenko.

Jaroslav Halak wasn’t great last season for the Rangers but did provide the team with league-average goaltending and was able to take 25 games from Shesterkin. He now finds himself as a free agent and has yet to sign a contract. Although he wasn’t terrific last season he might have been a better option for New York than Quick, but was likely asking for a bigger payday than the $825K used to sign Quick.

Salary Cap Outlook

It wasn’t that long ago that the New York Rangers were viewed as a team on the rise with a ton of good young players, and a pile of cap space. But after a few trades and signings, the cap space begins to dry up very quickly. That is the situation the Rangers found themselves in this summer as they had almost no room to maneuver under the salary cap. They will face a similar crunch next summer with just 14 players signed and roughly $15MM in projected cap space. Thankfully for the Rangers, the bulk of their core is signed through the end of next season, however, it is after that in the summer of 2025 when things could get hairy. Shesterkin will be due for a new contract that will likely come with a substantial raise, as will Miller who will be coming off his recently signed bridge deal. The Rangers will have a few other contracts to deal with in the interim, but they aren’t positioned well to make any major additions to this now-aging core.

Key Questions

Can Jonathan Quick play 20-30 games: The Rangers had precious little cap space to spend on a backup goaltender and elected to sign three-time Stanley Cup champion Quick. The gamble could pay off if Quick is able to regain his 2021-22 form in which he posted a respectable .910 save percentage and 23 wins in 46 games. However, if he is the goaltender he has been for most of the past five years, the Rangers could be in trouble. Quick has posted a sub.910 save percentage every other year since 2018 and hasn’t been able to provide consistent goaltending in Los Angeles, despite playing on a very good defensive team. Should he falter in New York, it could prove disastrous for the Rangers should they be forced to overwork Shesterkin.

Will The Young Guns Breakthrough? Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko were drafted first and second overall (in different drafts) to much fanfare back in 2019 and 2020. While both players are clearly NHL players, that isn’t what you hope for when you pick at the top of the draft two years in a row. Between the two youngsters, they have just one season in which they’ve passed forty points (Kakko in 2022-23) and they haven’t been able to show the offensive prowess they did in their younger days. One silver lining for New York is that both players seem to be trending in the right direction, albeit slower than the team would like.

Can Kreider Score 50 Again? Perspective can be a funny thing. Had Kreider not had a 50-goal explosion in 2021-22, then last season’s 36 goals would have been viewed as an enormous success, a career year, a breakthrough campaign. But on the heels of a 52-goal season, it looked like a failure. The main difference was Kreider’s powerplay production. In 2021-22 he had 26 power play goals, last year he had just eight. While the steep drop looks disastrous, it really wasn’t. Kreider was still a very strong player for the Rangers and despite now being in his early thirties it doesn’t seem likely that he is done yet. But can he hit 50 goals again? It’s probably unlikely, but given that he potted 36 just last year it is not unfathomable to think he could score 40 this year.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Who Will Be The NHL’s Next Highest Paid Player?

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Auston Matthews recent extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs has earned him the title of highest-paid player in the NHL. His new deal doesn’t kick in until 2024-25, but at that point, he will make an average annual salary of $13.25MM (CapFriendly) per season for four years. Prior to his new deal, Matthews was the fourth highest-paid player in the game behind Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid and Artemi Panarin.

MacKinnon’s new eight-year $100.8MM deal kicks in this season which will make him the highest-paid player in the league at $12.6MM for this year. His actual salary is much higher than his cap hit at $16.5MM, but the final four years of his deal will back-dive to $9.9MM in salary. McDavid has three years left on his current deal with a cap hit of $12.5MM while Panarin’s deal also concludes in three seasons and pays him $11.642MM annually.

With Matthews having topped MacKinnon’s new extension by over $600K annually the question now becomes, who will be the NHL’s next highest-paid player?

Connor McDavid – McDavid is the obvious answer. He is arguably the best player in the game and undoubtedly the best player in the world with the puck on his stick. The Richmond Hill, Ontario native will be 29 years old when he reaches unrestricted free agency and could essentially ask teams for a blank check and fill in the maximum salary under the salary cap. That is if he remains the best player in the world. While it seems hard to believe there is a world in which McDavid isn’t the game’s most explosive player, three years is a long time, and in hockey, it can be an eternity. There is also another Connor who could be the one to top Matthews’ extension.

Connor Bedard – It seems crazy that Bedard has yet to play a minute in the NHL and he could conceivably be the next highest-paid player in the NHL. But it could happen. Bedard signed his three-year entry-level contract with the Chicago Blackhawks on July 17th and should be a lock to make their opening night lineup. He will become a restricted free agent in 2026, the same time that McDavid becomes a UFA. It is fair to wonder how Bedard will produce once he is playing against men in the NHL, especially given that he will be playing on a bad Blackhawks team that will have its struggles. But he dominated the WHL with 71 goals and 72 assists in 57 games and obliterated the competition at the World Junior Championships with nine goals and 14 assists in 7 games. He’s a phenom, and in three years he could be paid like one.

Leon Draisaitl – Draisaitl has been one of the best bargains in the NHL since signing his eight-year $68MM contract back in August of 2017. All he has done during his six years under this contract is score 50+ goals three times, top 100 points four times, and win a Hart Trophy as well as an Art Ross Trophy. At 27-years-old Draisaitl is coming off the best season of his career having posted 52 goals and 76 assists in 80 games.

All things considered, it seems likely that Draisaitl will top Matthews’ contract two seasons from now when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. The native of Cologne, Germany will be 29 years old, and the salary cap should go up substantially between now and then positioning him to cash in big with any team of his choosing. Draisaitl will likely hold onto that distinction for just one season as McDavid and Bedard will be following right behind him and could top Draisaitl to earn the title of the highest-paid player in the NHL.

Edmonton Oilers Rank Last In Salary Cap Rankings

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Daily Faceoff has ranked the Edmonton Oilers last in salary cap efficiency. This comes as no surprise after the website began its annual salary cap rankings list and after a deep dive into the numbers determined that there isn’t a team in a worse situation financially than the Oilers. It isn’t a shock given the Oilers current salary cap woes. The team finds itself with just 21 players on the roster and only $382,499 in cap space. Though finishing dead last on the list is new, Edmonton ranked second last in last year’s version of the list.

Daily Faceoff’s ranking system looks at no-move clauses, dead cap space, the quality of long-term contracts, bargain contracts, and the good deals versus the bad ones. Unfortunately, based on those criteria, it is easy to see why the Oilers find themselves at the bottom of that list. Edmonton has several problematic contracts on their books, and while they have some bargains like Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The bad deals outweigh the great ones.

Darnell Nurse is a really good defenseman; he eats a ton of minutes for the Oilers and plays a lot of tough situations. However, he does suffer a lot of mental lapses, and at $9.25 million a season, he just doesn’t bring the offensive upside you would like to see in a defenseman making that kind of money. Nurse is also likely to wear down as the miles pile up on his body. Those difficult minutes require that he play with a ton of physicality. It could take its toll on the 28-year-old when he gets on the wrong side of 30.

Some of the other bad contracts on the Oilers are goaltender Jack Campbell at $5MM per season as well as third-line winger Warren Foegele and third-pairing defenceman Brett Kulak at $2.75 million each. The contracts come in addition to the nearly $2MM per year the Oilers are still paying on the James Neal buyout.

On the surface, these contracts don’t look like outrageous overpayments because all the players listed above are still functional NHLers. However, in the flat cap era Campbell, Foegele, and Kulak are all replacement-level NHLers who could have been replaced by other players on contracts of less than $1MM per season. Couple that with the mishandling of Nurse’s previous bridge deals and it all amounts to around $10MM in inefficient salary cap spending that could lead to big problems for the Oilers down the road when they need to offer extensions to McDavid, Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard.

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