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Pending Restricted Free Agents And Offer Sheets

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It’s been four years since the last offer sheet in the NHL, but that hasn’t stopped the speculation surrounding them.

The past two years leave little clue to what could happen this summer. Two summers ago saw several major moves made to avoid the threat of an offer sheet, then last summer saw seven high-end players go the entire summer without a new contract with no whisper of an offer sheet.

Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, Mikael Granlund, Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson, Evegeni Kuznetsov, Alexander Wennberg, and 23 more 30-plus point scorers are restricted free agents this summer. Those seven names all scored more than 59 points this past season, and would be plug-and-play options on most NHL clubs. And while the official compensation has not been reported for the upcoming season, last season it broke down this way (per Elliott Friedman):

Less than $1.23MM No compensation
$1.23MM to $1.87MM Third-round pick
$1.87MM to $3.75MM Second-round pick
$3.75MM to $5.63MM First and third-round picks
$5.63MM to $7.51MM First, second and third-round picks
$7.51MM to $9.38MM Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $9.38MM Four first-round picks

The price to acquire a marquee name would realistically be two first-round picks, a second, and a third. Arguably, none of those players are in line to make more than $7.5MM on their new deals with their current clubs, but offer sheets need to be high enough to discourage the player’s club from matching, leading to overpaying players. It’s for that reason that offer sheets are so rare; no GM can afford to harm their team’s reputation among their peers (or take part in a barn fight). Additionally, offer sheets raise salaries and no team owner wants to be seen as responsible in the next CBA talks. Back in the mid-90s, Colorado Avalanche superstar Joe Sakic signed an offer sheet with the New York Rangers that raised the standard salary for NHL stars from $3MM to $7MM.

On TSN 690 in Montreal, where fans and media are speculating about a potential offer sheet for the Oilers’ big center Draisaitl, TSN Insider Darren Dreger shot down rumors. Dreger believes the Oilers know what it will likely take to sign Draisaitl and 2018-RFA Connor McDavid and are willing to sacrifice players like Jordan Eberle and perhaps even Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in order to keep their two young stars together. As mentioned above, offer sheets harm working relationships and with other big names becoming available from Edmonton for cap purposes in the coming few years, it doesn’t make sense to rule one’s team out of those discussions.

Realistically, the threat of an offer sheet is a more effective way to acquire a player. In 2015, the Bruins and Blackhawks traded Dougie Hamilton and Brandon Saad quickly to avoid being hit with an offer sheet. In the Blackhawks’ case, losing Saad for draft picks would have lead to future trades to replace him. Acquiring actual NHL players and prospects (like Artem Anisimov and Marko Dano) is more valuable than the risk associated with draft picks because the GM knows exactly what he’s getting back.

While fans and media love to speculate about offer sheets, the combination of losing several high draft picks, CBA issues, and the guarantee of harming the franchise’s reputation, it’s understandable why offer sheets are close to extinct.

Notable Contracts Signed During Playoffs

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The NHL’s regular season ended on April 9. Since then, there have been six notable contracts handed out by teams who either missed the playoffs or were eliminated early. We also saw the first major signing by the expansion Vegas Golden Knights.

At the half-way mark of the playoffs, let’s take a look at the bigger contracts signed so far:

April 24 – The New York Islanders re-signed Dennis Seidenberg to a one-year extension worth $1.25MM. A year removed from being bought-out by the Boston Bruins, Seidenberg signed with the Islanders during training camp. The defensive defenseman scored five goals and 22 points in 73 games with the Islanders. Seidenberg will be exposed in the expansion draft, but is not the most-appealing option that will be available to the Golden Knights from the Islanders roster.

May 2 – The Toronto Maple Leafs finally confirmed the long-rumored signing of defenseman Nikita Zaitsev to a seven-year, $31.5MM extension. That’s an average of $4.5MM per season, which is fair value for a top-four defenseman on a long-term deal. The 25-year old transitioned exceptionally to the NHL, registering 36 points while leading the Maple Leafs in ice-time and playing in all 82 regular season games. The term is likely longer than most Maple Leafs’ fans wanted, but will keep the cap hit down. He will also be exempt from this spring’s expansion draft.

May 4 – The Vegas Golden Knights made their first major acquisition (sorry, Reid Duke) by signing KHL star Vadim Shipachyov to a two-year, $9MM contract. The 30-year-old center scored 76 points in 50 games this season for SKA St. Petersburg. That was good for third in the KHL and second on SKA, behind only Ilya Kovalchuk. Shipachyov is a highly-skilled offensive player, but isn’t a big body at 6’1, 190 lbs. Vegas hopes he’ll be a marquee talent for the expansion club.

May 5 – The Carolina Hurricanes traded for Chicago Blackhawks backup goaltender Scott Darling in late April, and spent less than a week negotiating a new four-year, $16.6MM contract. Darling spent three seasons with the Blackhawks, going from a little-known name to one of this summer’s most highly sought-after goaltenders. In 32 games this season, Darling went 18-5-5 with a 0.924 SV% and a 2.38 GAA. The Hurricanes still owe Eddie Lack and Cam Ward over $6MM for the upcoming season.

May 9 – The Los Angeles Kings’ new GM Rob Blake locked up one of his team’s key young players to a four-year, $15MM contract. Tanner Pearson finished third on the Kings in scoring, with a career-high 44 points. The Kings had a disappointing season, but Pearson was one of their few bright spots.

May 11 – After a 22-goal season, Richard Panik signed a two-year, $5.8MM extension with the Chicago Blackhawks this morning. Panik caught on with the Chicago Blackhawks last season and has been a regular fixture with captain Jonathan Toews on the top line. Prior to his 44-points this season, Panik’s previous career-high was 17 points. While he left some money on the table, it was unlikely that he would find a better spot than on Toews’ wing.

Oilers Notes: Free Agents, Draisaitl, Eberle, Pouliot

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The Edmonton Oilers were eliminated by the Anaheim Ducks in Game 7 on Wednesday night; now comes the post-season autopsies and plans for the coming summer.

The face of the franchise and perhaps the league, Connor McDavid is eligible to sign an extension on July 1. Pending-RFA Leon Draisaitl lead the Oilers in playoff scoring after finishing eighth in the NHL during the regular season. Those two players will go from entry-level contracts to somewhere between $16-20MM by next summer.

The upcoming McDavid contract has already been the subject of much digital ink. Now, Draisaitl’s breakout season has lead to questions about what he’s worth. At the beginning of the year, the debate was bridge-deal or long-term. After a 77-point campaign, it’s clear that the Oilers will be looking long-term with their young star. Over at Sportsnet, Jonathan Willis explored previous contracts for comparable stars. Based on contracts signed by players like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Anze Kopitar, and Johnny Gaudreau, Willis writes that Draisaitl’s new contract ought to be in the $6 to $6.5MM range. However, because of Draisaitl’s 37-game rookie season and the influence of McDavid, Willis notes that both sides have leverage.

Other free agents include Kris Russell, Zack Kassian, and Matt Hendricks. Hendricks will certainly be off the books, clearing close to $2MM. Russell will be interesting, as he’s the only member of the regular top-six who’s not under contract next season. If the Oilers want to improve their blue line, then Russell’s spot is the clear choice to upgrade.

  • On Thursday morning, the Oilers announced that Draisaitl will join Germany at the IIHF World Championships in Paris, France, and Cologne, Germany.  The native of Cologne ought to help Germany’s chances, as the team has just one regulation win in four games so far. It’s been a busy season for Draisaitl, who has played 104 games since mid-August beginning with the Olympic Qualifiers, the World Cup of Hockey, all 82 NHL regular season games, and then 13 NHL playoff games.
  • Eberle’s poor regular season and playoffs may mean he’s on the way out. He didn’t score a single goal during the playoffs, and was even outscored by Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne by a score of three assists to two.  As Sportsnet’s Luke Fox puts it, “You’re selling low on Jordan Eberle, but you’re still selling, right?” Provided the Oilers can find more scoring depth on the right wing, then expect Eberle to be on his way out. Fox suggests Carolina, New Jersey, and Vegas as possible trade partners.
  • Left-winger Benoit Pouliot also struggled mightily this season, with just 14 points in the regular season and none in the playoffs. He also comes at a $4MM price tag, which makes any trade unlikely. He’ll be exposed to Vegas, with perhaps a prospect or pick offered as a sweetner. Failing that, a buyout could be the next option. It was a bad year, but Pouliot has previously scored a solid rate while being an aggressive forechecker and good penalty-killer. His penchant for bad penalties got him in coach Todd McLellan’s doghouse and he couldn’t play his way out.

Golden Knights Sign Vadim Shipachyov

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The Vegas Golden Knights have made their first big player acquisition, signing KHL star Vadim Shipachyov to a two-year contract.

Shipachyov will make $4.5MM per season, per the team’s media release. He joins rookie pro and former Brandon Wheat King center Reid Duke as the only two players currently under contract by the expansion Golden Knights franchise.

The 30-year-old center is a legitimate scoring threat in Russia, having scored 26 goals and 50 assists for 76 points in 50 games this season for SKA St. Petersburg. That was good for third in the KHL and second on SKA, behind only Ilya Kovalchuk. In Shipachyov’s nine-year career in the KHL, he has 137 goals and 412 points in 445 games. His points-per-game is slightly lessened by his early years; he’s scored 190 points in 153 games over the last three years. SKA has won the Gagarin Cup twice in those seasons.

Shipachyov is a highly-skilled offensive player, but isn’t a big body at 6’1, 190 lbs. Here’s how he’s described by Elite Prospects:

Shipachyov is a skilled center with excellent on-ice vision. He skates very well and with a fluid stride. Owns great offensive instincts and likes to have the puck on his stick. Could improve his all-around game. Isn’t overly efficient in physical battles.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported back in March that Vegas was exploring the possibility of signing the highly sought-after Russian star and his SKA teammate Yegveni Dadonov.

Even though this is Shipachyov’s first contract with an NHL club, he’s too old to sign an entry-level contract and will be a UFA at the expiry of the two-year deal, according to Cap Friendly. No word yet if he’ll wear his usual number 87 in the NHL. Only Sidney Crosby and Capitals minor-leaguer Liam O’Brien currently wear the number.

Shipachyov is currently with the Team Russia at the IIHF World Championships in Colonge, Germany.

Bobby Ryan Leaves Game 3

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Already without Zack Smith since the first period, the Senators are down a second forward in the third period.

Winger Bobby Ryan took an Erik Karlsson slapshot to the knee as he was standing in front of the Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist. Ryan limped to the bench and left down the tunnel shortly thereafter.

Ryan had a season to forget, with just 25 points in 62 games. He’s rebounded nicely in the playoffs, with eight points in nine playoff appearances including an overtime winner in the first round. Ryan set up the Senators’ only goal in Game 3 with a beautiful no-look pass from behind the net to Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

Senators Zack Smith Leaves Game

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The Ottawa Senators will be shorthanded for the rest of Tuesday night’s game.

Center Zack Smith left the Senators’ bench in the first period and will not return with an upper-body injury, per Ottawa’s communications team. Smith took a hard hit from Rangers’ tough guy Tanner Glass and J.T. Miller.

Smith has just two assists in eight games so far this playoff, while averaging 17:33 per game. However, he has been excellent in the faceoff circle at 52% and a big hitter himself, throwing 21 hits in those eight games.

He has posted back-to-back seasons with 30-something points, going 16-16-32 in 74 games this past year. The Senators locked him up four-year contract extension worth $3.25MM per season back in January. At the end of the regular season, Smith missed a handful of games with an upper-body injury.

The Senators are up 2-0 in the series entering Tuesday’s Game 3.

Sidney Crosby’s Injury History

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The Pittsburgh Penguins will be without their captain for an undetermined amount of time after today’s concussion diagnosis.

This isn’t the first time that Sidney Crosby has missed time due to head injuries, though. Over the course of his twelve-year NHL career, Crosby has missed 168 games. The vast majority have been in the last seven years, where he has missed 129 games out of a possible 540.

Let’s take a look at Crosby’s history of major injuries:

2007-08 – missed 29 games with a high-ankle sprain – Crosby crashed feet-first into the boards during a mid-January game against the Tampa Bay Lightning. He played just seven games over the rest of the season, ending up with 53 games-played.

2010-11 – missed 41 games with a concussion – During the 2011 Winter Classic, Capitals forward David Steckel caught Crosby with a blind-side hit as the puck went passed the Penguins’ captain. Crosby returned to the lineup for the next game, but took an innocent-looking hit from Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman behind the net. For the second time in two games, Crosby left the game holding his head. He didn’t play again that season; it was an early end to one of the most dominant seasons in recent history, as Crosby had 66 points in 41 games. That included a 25-game point streak where he scored 51 points.

2011-12 – missed 60 games with concussion-related symptoms – Not only did Crosby miss the final half of the 2010-11 season, he missed the first 20 games of the following season. Many fans will remember Crosby’s legendary return to action, when he scored four points in a 5-0 win over the New York Islanders. Unfortunately, after eight games, an awkward hit from Bruins center David Krejci lead to Crosby being diagnosed with soft-tissue issues in addition to the return of his concussion symptoms. Crosby returned in mid-March and played the final 14 games of the season and participated in the Penguins’ six-game loss to rival Philadelphia. In 22 regular season games, Crosby had 37 points. He followed that up with eight points in six playoff games.

2012-13 – missed 13 games with a broken jaw – After a dominant lockout-shortened season, Crosby missed the end of the regular season and first game of the playoffs after he took a (then-teammate) Brooks Orpik shot to the face. He retuned early in the playoffs, scoring 15 points in 14 games as the Penguins were swept by the Bruins in the Eastern Final.

2016-17 – missed 6 games with a concussion – Crosby enjoyed three mostly-healthy seasons between 2013 and 2016. After winning the Stanley Cup and World Cup in four months, the injury bug struck again. Crosby suffered another concussion in an unspecified incident at Penguins practice. He missed the final pre-season game and the first six games of the regular season, before returning to his dominant form, posting 89 points in 75 games and winning the Art Ross to go along with nominations for the Hart and Lindsay awards.

Based on his history of interrupted comebacks, the Penguins need to be careful with Crosby’s return. The potential for a repeat championship is dwarfed by the future health of their superstar.

Ted Lindsay Finalists Released

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The NHL has revealed the three finalists for the Ted Lindsay Award: Brent Burns, Sidney Crosby, and Connor McDavid.

The award goes to the player judged to be the most outstanding player in the league. The biggest difference between the Hart and the Lindsay is who votes; the Hart is voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) and the Lindsay is voted on by NHL players. It’s for this reason that players often seen the Lindsay as a more prestigious award to win, as it’s voted on by their peers.

Burns had a fantastic season, finishing ninth in NHL scoring. His 29 goals and 76 points were the highest by a defenseman, six more than Senators captain Erik Karlsson. Burns lead the Sharks in scoring by eight points (Joe Pavelski had 68), and was the most dangerous player on the ice for the Sharks on most nights. Going against Burns, however, is his 16-game goalless drought towards the end of the season. After scoring 27 goals in 59 games, Burns didn’t score between February 19 and March 28. However, that also illustrates the sheer dominance of Burns prior to the drought. Also, Karlsson had 82 points in 82 games in 2015-16 and failed to even be nominated for Lindsay or Hart. The last time a defenseman won the Award was 1974-75 when some guy named Bobby Orr won it.

Crosby is the only finalist who has won the award before, having won it three times in 2006-07, 2012-13, and 2013-14. Crosby had 44 goals and 89 points in 75 games this season. His 44 goals were good to win the Rocket Richard Trophy for the NHL’s leading goal scorer. Crosby scored 17 more points than his Penguins teammate Evgeni Malkin. Crosby is three-for-three when nominated for the Award.

However, the odds-on favorite is likely Oilers captain McDavid, who was the only 100-point scorer in the NHL this season. The 20-year-old McDavid scored 30 goals and 100 points in 82 games, winning the Art Ross trophy by 11 points over Crosby and Patrick Kane, both of whom had 89 points. While the other two finalists play for perennial contenders, McDavid was a huge part of the Oilers’ jump up the standings from 29th to 8th in the league.

The winner will be revealed at the NHL Awards in Las Vegas on June 21.

Penguins Injury Updates

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The Pittsburgh Penguins took care of business in the first round, beating the Columbus Blue Jackets in five games. They did so without several players in the lineup, including their starting goalie.

Coach Mike Sullivan spoke with the media on Saturday, and gave updates on several players (per Wes Crosby of NHL.com):

LW Carl Hagelin – suffered lower-body injury on March 11 – Hagelin likely broke his foot in early March against the Edmonton Oilers. The preliminary estimate was four weeks, but that deadline passed ten days ago. Sullivan reports that Hagelin is undergoing off-ice rehab. It’s still not known when he might return to the lineup.

LW Chris Kunitz – suffered lower-body injury on March 31 – Kunitz has made “significant progress” and skated today.

D Kris Letang – Out of the lineup since late February, Letang underwent season-ending surgery on a herniated disc in his neck earlier this month. Sullivan had no update.

G Matt Murray – suffered lower-body injury before Game 1 vs Blue Jackets – Murray has not skated since leaving the pre-game warmup on April 12. Sullivan says Murray has been rehabbing his injury off-ice, and his return date is not known. Center Evgeni Malkin told Crosby that he expects Marc-Andre Fleury to start when the second round begins.

D Chad Ruhwedel – suffered upper-body injury on April 11 – Similar to Kunitz, Ruhwedel has made progress and is skating.

The Penguins will be watching closely on Sunday night, when the Washington Capitals can eliminate the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 6 and clinch a third Capitals-Penguins playoff series in the Sidney Crosby–Alex Ovechkin era.

Snapshots: Shaw, Flames, Blackhawks

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Facing elimination for the first time this spring, the Montreal Canadiens didn’t need any additional adversity heading into Saturday night’s game. Unfortunately, they’re going to have some.

Forward Andrew Shaw was not at practice and will not be in the lineup for Game 6, according to coach Claude Julien via John Lu of TSN. The team announced he is dealing with an upper-body injury, and is considered day-to-day. Based on this morning’s skate, the Canadiens will dress the following lines tonight:

Max Pacioretty – Phillip Danault – Alexander Radulov
Artturi Lehkonen – Tomas Plekanec – Brendan Gallagher
Alex Galchenyuk – Brian Flynn – Paul Byron
Dwight King – Steve Ott – Michael McCarron

Andrei Markov – Shea Weber
Alexei Emelin – Jeff Petry
Brandon Davidson – Jordie Benn

Carey Price

Shaw has struggled so far in this series. He’s currently pointless, with a -2 rating, seven PIM, and is just 31% in the face-off circle. After scoring 29 points in 68 games in the regular season with a 54% success rate in the dot, it begs the question of how long Shaw has been dealing with this injury. Despite his struggles, he would be a valuable addition should the Canadiens force a seventh game; Shaw has played in three game sevens with the Chicago Blackhawks (2-1 record). He had 35 points in 67 playoff games as a Blackhawk.

  • Over in Calgary, the team packed their bags on Friday. Several notable names are pending free agents, and most of them spoke with the media and expressed a desire to return, per Wes Gilbertson of the Calgary Sun. Count Kris Versteeg, Michael Stone, Chad Johnson, Brian Elliott, and Deryk Engelland as interested in staying in Alberta; Dennis Wideman was not there on Friday, a day after being named in a $10.25MM lawsuit. Wideman played just four games down the stretch and none in the playoffs. He won’t be back. Versteeg and Stone both expressed strong interest in returning; both have family in the area. Somewhat more surprising was Elliott, who many believe will not return after his disastrous playoffs (0-3, .880 SV%, 3.89 GAA in four games).
  • As I covered this morning, the Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers today. Since then, a few players have spoken to the media. Per a series of tweets from Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune, defenseman Brian Campbell said he would rather retire than sign elsewhere, Trevor van Riemsdyk also hopes to back in Chicago, but isn’t sure what will happen at the expansion draft, and Richard Panik is unsure of his value heading into negotiations and will not play at the World Championships. Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin will be joining USA and Russia, respectively.

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