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Archives for June 2022

Snapshots: Cogliano, Quenneville, Kostin

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Colorado might get a veteran back in the lineup tonight as head coach Jared Bednar told reporters including NHL.com’s Amalie Benjamin that winger Andrew Cogliano could be an option to return.  The 35-year-old underwent hand surgery to repair an injury sustained during the Western Conference Final but returned to practice on Friday and participated in the morning skate today.  Cogliano, who leads all Colorado players in terms of the number of playoff games played, has two goals and an assist in 11 games so far this postseason while logging a little more than nine minutes a night of action.  If Cogliano is able to return, Nicolas Aube-Kubel may be the one to cede his spot.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • In an appearance on ESPN’s The Point on Friday (video link), commissioner Gary Bettman acknowledged that former Panthers head coach Joel Quenneville has expressed a desire to return to the NHL though not for a specific job opening. At the time of Quenneville’s resignation following the findings of the Kyle Beach investigation being released, Bettman indicated that he would “require a meeting in advance in order to determine the appropriate conditions under which such new employment might take place”.  That meeting probably won’t be coming soon as Bettman added during his appearance that he doesn’t believe that this is the right time to discuss the potential of Quenneville returning to work for a team.
  • In his latest reader chat, Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests that winger Klim Kostin is a likely trade candidate for the Blues this summer. Alexey Toropchenko plays a very similar style as Kostin and is someone that head coach Craig Berube is a fan of, giving Torochenko a leg up for that spot on the lineup.  A 2017 first-round pick, Kostin is waiver-eligible next season but could still carry some value after picking up nine points and 90 hits in 40 games with St. Louis this season while also playing a key role for AHL Springfield as the Thunderbirds get set to start the Calder Cup Finals tomorrow.

Minor Transactions: 6/18/22

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We’re just a couple hours away from the start of Game Two of the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals, the eyes of the hockey world shifting to Denver, Colorado to watch the Tampa Bay Lightning take on the Colorado Avalanche, Colorado up 1-0 in the series. Amidst the excitement the NHL’s biggest stage, followed by some early offseason rumblings around the league, there is still plenty of action going on around the hockey world, including in the AHL. We’ll keep track of that action here throughout the day.

  • The Toronto Marlies announced the signings of three forwards to one-year, AHL contracts today: Orrin Centazzo, Marc Johnstone, and Keenan Suthers. Centazzo, 22, just completed his rookie season in the ECHL with the Newfoundland Growlers who, like the Marlies, are an affiliate of the Toronto Maple Leafs. As a rookie, Centazzo recorded 51 points in 51 regular season games, followed up by another 15 points in 18 playoff games. Johnstone, 25, also spent a majority of last season with Newfoundland, putting up 21 points in 58 games. The Sacred Heart University alumni also appeared in four AHL games with the Marlies, but failed to record a point. The 6’8″, 245-pound Suthers just wrapped up a four-year NCAA career, split between St. Lawrence University and the University of Maine, tallying 13 points in 30 games in 2021-22, his lone season at Maine.

Washington Capitals Announce Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Alexeyev Had Surgery

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This afternoon, the Washington Capitals announced that star center Nicklas Backstrom and prospect Alexander Alexeyev both had surgery recently, with both expected to miss significant time. Backstrom had hip resurfacing surgery on Friday in Belgium, Washington confirmed, his recovery process beginning immediately, though a recovery timetable was not given (link). Alexeyev had a surgical labral repair to his left shoulder and is expected to mis four to five months (link).

The news on Backstrom is not surprising, his previous hip issues well documented, and his playing future seemingly uncertain at the conclusion of Washington’s season (link). At that point, Capitals GM Brian MacLellan said Backstrom continuing to play with his hip as is was not sustainable and that the veteran forward would be looking at his options. Frank Seravalli of The Daily Faceoff points out that forward Ryan Kesler had the same hip resurfacing surgery that Backstrom had back in 2019 and of course, did not play again after (link). He also points to Ed Jovanovski, who had the same procedure in 2013, taking a full year to rehab, but came back to play 37 games before retiring.

Faced with a lengthy recovery and a checkered history of continued NHL play after having this surgery, Backstrom’s NHL future is up in the air. If Backstrom takes roughly the same year Jovanovski needed for recovery, he would find himself aiming to return at the start of the 2023-24 season, just ahead of his 36th birthday, but still with two years at a $9.2MM AAV remaining on his contract. Speaking of his contract, the injury does provide the Capitals with some flexibility to replace the production they will miss, allowing them to place the veteran on LTIR, adding another $9.2MM in cap space, more than doubling their current figure of just under $9MM of free space. This should add another wrinkle into the offseason, as a still-competitive Capitals team would presumably look to replace that production, jumping into a crowded market of teams looking to add from an also fairly crowded market of talented forwards both in free agency and on the trade block.

Alexeyev’s surgery, unlike Backstrom’s, does provide clarity on his situation and appears to give him a path to return without missing too much time, the four to five months timeline giving a late October or early November return date. The defenseman’s absence shouldn’t be a huge blow to the Capitals immediately, having played just one NHL game back in December. But, for the former first-round pick, who has been excellent in his time with the AHL’s Hershey Bears, he may have had a chance to push for a roster spot with the Capitals out of training camp. Now, the 22-year-old will now have to focus on recovering, likely beginning his season in the AHL.

Latest On Jesper Bratt

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The rebuild of the New Jersey Devils has largely consisted of draft lottery wins, including Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and the second-overall selection in this year’s NHL Entry Draft, a few under-the-radar trades for players like Ryan Graves and Jonas Siegenthaler, a blockbuster free-agent signing of Dougie Hamilton, and the surprising development of a 2016 sixth-round pick: Jesper Bratt. Over his NHL career, Bratt has proven he belongs in the NHL, initially providing solid secondary scoring for New Jersey before a superb breakout season in 2021-22, where he lead the team in scoring with 73 points in 76 games. Soon to be 24 and now an NHL veteran, Bratt finds himself a restricted free agent this offseason at the conclusion of a two-year, $5.5MM contract he signed with the Devils prior to the 2020-21 season.

Despite the success and becoming a major building-block for the Devils, in his updated trade targets list yesterday, The Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli added Bratt’s name into the mix, citing the lack of discussion between player and team on Bratt’s next contract. Earlier this afternoon, ESPN’s Kevin Weekes added to the story, saying he had also heard that there had been no significant extension talks between the two sides (link). Weekes also said he could confirm that several teams were indeed interested in trading for the Swedish winger. Of course many teams would likely be interested in making a deal for Bratt, considering his age, his control as a RFA, and his ability to create offense and support his line. This interest also makes it hard to understand why New Jersey might be interested in moving the winger themselves upon seeing this development and his chemistry with their other young building blocks, not to mention plenty of salary cap space at just over $25.3MM projected this offseason.

Perhaps putting the rumors to bed, however, is The Star-Ledger’s Ryan Novozinsky. You may recall last weekend, Novozinsky addressed Bratt’s contract, speaking directly to his agent, Joakim Persson, who confirmed the sides have had discussions on a contract, which included meeting in person several weeks ago, as well as a few phone calls since. In light of Weekes’ tweet today, Novozinsky reiterated what Persson told him, that both sides have had discussions on a contract, though no deal is imminent. In addition to Bratt’s camp, the Devils confirmed to Novozinsky that contract talks were ongoing and the process takes time (link).

The comments from Persson and the confirmation from the Devils would seem to prove there has been dialogue, one that would likely continue, but today’s comments from Weekes do certainly raise eyebrows. Not having a deal finalized right now is far from a concern, and could be due to a number of factors, some wholly unrelated to Bratt, but the Devils do have until July 13th to be in full control of the negotiations before their star player can talk to other teams, which could lead to an offer-sheet scenario. Though that scenario has not been speculated or reported on, it could serve as a soft deadline to work out a contract.

Blue Jackets Re-Sign Brendan Gaunce

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After re-signing Liam Foudy on Friday, the Blue Jackets have taken care of another one of their pending free agents today as they announced the signing of center Brendan Gaunce to a two-year, two-way contract.  Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed by the team but Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports (Twitter link) that he’ll make $750K in the NHL next season and $450K in the minors while in 2023-24, his NHL salary goes up slightly to $775K while the minor league portion remains $450K.  There is a guaranteed payout of $475K each season.  GM Jarmo Kekalainen released the following statement about the 28-year-old:

Brendan is a competitive forward with good size who can play both the center and wing. He played well last season and brings versatility and depth to our forward group.

Gaunce spent the 2020-21 season in Sweden before deciding to return to North America last season where he inked a two-way deal with Columbus.  He split this season between Columbus and AHL Cleveland where, as Kekalainen alluded to, he spent time both down the middle and on the wing.  With the Blue Jackets, he suited up in 30 games, recording five goals and two assists while averaging just over eight minutes per game.  In the minors, Gaunce was considerably more productive, picking up 16 goals and 12 helpers in 39 contests.

Gaunce is likely to play a similar role with Columbus for these next two seasons.  He isn’t much of a risk of being claimed off waivers having cleared three times in the past and could play a key role with the Monsters at times.  With an AAV of just over $762K, he won’t cost much to keep around at the end of the roster where his versatility will certainly be useful.

Kekalainen still has a lot of work to do this summer as the Blue Jackets still have 15 players whose contracts are set to expire next month, headlined by pending restricted free agents Patrik Laine and Adam Boqvist.

PHR Mailbag: Klefbom, LTIR, Blashill, Top Pick, Miller, Sabres, Predictions, Murray, Cup Final

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the creative usage of LTIR in recent years, Buffalo’s goaltending situation, J.T. Miller’s future with Vancouver, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here and wasn’t about Detroit, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.  If your question was about the Red Wings, watch for that to be covered in a bonus mailbag between now and then.

WilfPaiement: Is there any updated information on Oscar Klefbom? Playing next season? Retiring?

It’s the status quo for the Edmonton blueliner.  Klefbom’s shoulder injury still lingers and at this point, there’s no expectation that he’ll be able to resume his NHL career.  He certainly won’t be retiring, however.  He’s still owed $5.169MM in salary for next season and there’s no way he’s leaving that on the table to do Edmonton a favor.  Since his deal is backloaded as well, he’s not as likely of a candidate to be moved to a team looking to do some LTIR shenanigans.  Speaking of which…

rickg: Are there any opinions on how teams are using the LTIR for the purpose of adding to the roster to better the team, instead of what the LTIR was intended to be used for as a way to replace an injured player on your roster if your team was maxed out and LTIR allowed the team to go past the high-end cap threshold?

There are few things as confusing in hockey as the inner machinations of LTIR.  It might even give ‘What constitutes goalie interference?’ a run for its money at times.  I’d say by now that most understand the basics which was what the rule was intended to be but these trades that now see injured players going for value that involve transaction sequencing and precise timing of roster moves takes it to a whole different level, one that is much more confusing and harder to explain.

But even if they’re harder to explain, are stranger on the surface, and can even flat out baffle people, I have no problem with these types of moves.  The NHL is a hard cap system that doesn’t have a lot of potential for wiggle room.  If teams can find a loophole to exploit, go for it.  Use it until enough general managers complain to make it a sticking point in the next CBA discussions.  Right now, there isn’t enough of an appetite for trying to close that Pandora’s box.

Does the recent Shea Weber for Evgenii Dadonov trade go against the spirit of the LTIR rule?  Of course it does.  But if Montreal and Vegas are both happy at the end of the day and the trade fulfills an objective they wanted to achieve, then good on them for finding a way to make something work.  At least it made for a good discussion point for a bit of time during a quiet part of the NHL calendar when it comes to off-ice movement.

I’ll mention that this question came in before that trade happened.  Perfect timing on your part.

Johnny Z: So, does Blashill have the inside track on the Florida coaching job?

The former Detroit bench boss was linked to the Panthers earlier this month but at this point, it’s hard to see him being the contender for a position that may or may not be available.  With reports coming out on Friday that Florida is conducting a rather thorough coaching search and has interviewed several prominent veterans, it’s hard to see Jeff Blashill coming up as the winner in that particular battle should GM Bill Zito opt to go in a different direction from interim head coach Andrew Brunette.

I think Blashill could be a candidate to be an assistant coach with Florida, however, particularly if Brunette retains the job.  There are openings to be filled and if you have effectively a first-time head coach running the bench, it wouldn’t hurt to have someone with recent NHL head coaching experience on the staff.  Blashill, who doesn’t seem to be a candidate for any of the other openings at the moment, would be a decent fit in that type of role and unlike the prominent veterans, would likely be willing to accept an associate coach position as well.  He could wind up in Florida, just not as their next head coach.

ckw: Do you think Shane Wright is going to go first overall and if not, who do you see the Habs taking?

I know there’s a growing sense that Juraj Slafkovsky could ultimately be the number one pick and I can understand the logic behind it.  Wright’s season wasn’t up to the admittedly high level of expectations and while Slafkovsky was quiet himself for long stretches, his performance at the Olympics and the Worlds turned some heads.  If he can find a way to play at that level consistently, he’s worthy of being the top pick.  But that’s a big if.  Even so, this doesn’t feel like the type of typical smokescreen you might see at this time of year from the team holding the top pick.

That said, Wright is my expected choice for the Canadiens.  Montreal has been chasing center help for basically the better part of two decades now.  Even when their NHL depth was good, they didn’t have that true number one.  I don’t think Wright is a true number one either but a combination of him and Nick Suzuki for seven years as their top two options is a lot better than what they’ve trotted out in recent years.  I have a hard time thinking they can pass on that, especially knowing that their salary cap situation isn’t exactly ideal; it’s not as if they can go out and sign an impact free agent middleman any time soon.

pawtucket: J.T. Miller gets traded. If yes, to what sort of team and for what sort of package.  If no, which of Horvat or Boeser goes and to what sort of team and for what sort of package.

I’m going to say yes, Miller does get traded.  Is Vancouver really prepared to pay upwards of $8MM per season on a contract that starts at the age of 30 for a player who has only twice reached the 60-point mark?  I know he has been much more productive lately but I still see giant red flags when I try to picture that type of contract.  Knowing extending Miller would eventually cost Bo Horvat (they can’t afford Elias Pettersson, Miller, and Horvat down the middle), I’d rather take the short-term hit in talent to add some important future assets and gain some much-needed cap flexibility.

As for where, that’s a tough one but I’ll say Los Angeles.  Anze Kopitar has two years left on his deal and Miller’s extension wouldn’t start until 2023-24 so there’s only one year of overlap.  Kopitar will be in his age-37 season when he signs his next contract so he’ll likely be starting to decline at that time; a new top pivot will be needed.  Miller would be a good insurance policy if the likes of Quinton Byfield and Alex Turcotte don’t pan out as intended (and if they do, affordable short-term surplus center depth is never a bad thing).  The Kings have the cap space to bring him in now and have some longer-term flexibility.  They also have quality prospects that would make it easier to part with the package it would take.

I’d peg that package as a three-piece deal.  The first-round pick (19th overall) next month would be one of them.  I’d put Rasmus Kupari in their as a second one, a 22-year-old former first-rounder that could be Vancouver’s cost-controlled 3C of the future; if he pans out, a Pettersson-Horvat (assuming he’d be extended after moving Miller)-Kupari trio would put them in good shape.  The other is a prospect and looking at what the Canucks have in their prospect pool, a right-shot defender would be a target.  The Kings have a few of those but the one that stands out is Brock Faber, a 2020 second-rounder that’s probably a year away from being pro-ready and plays the type of complementary game that would work well alongside someone like Quinn Hughes.

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Atlantic Notes: Campbell, Gaudette, Bruins

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Kurt Overhardt, the agent for Maple Leafs goaltender Jack Campbell, told Jonas Siegel of The Athletic (subscription link) that he has held talks with Toronto roughly once a week although, to this point, no numbers have been exchanged between the two sides.  He also reiterated that the 31-year-old would like to return to Toronto.  Campbell had an up-and-down year, being named to the All-Star Game but also posted a save percentage of just .893 from January on to the end of the season.  He’s going to be in line for a sizable raise on the $1.65MM AAV he had for the last two years but the shaky finish certainly won’t help his market.  While there are still a few weeks before free agency opens up, the fact neither side has tabled a firm proposal yet throws some uncertainty onto whether or not he’ll be back with the Maple Leafs next season.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • The Senators are currently undecided on whether or not to tender center Adam Gaudette a qualifying offer next month, relays Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch. Ottawa claimed the 25-year-old off waivers from Chicago back in November and he chipped in with a dozen points in 50 games the rest of the way, his first real taste of consistent NHL action since the 2019-20 season.  His qualifier is only for $1MM but his production in the past (including 33 points in the 19-20 campaign) makes him a bit of a risk for salary arbitration.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the two sides discuss a deal leading up to the tender deadline to see if there’s a fit on a one-year contract that would extend his stay but not push the price tag much higher than their required offer.
  • Spencer Carbery is among the candidates for Boston’s head coaching vacancy, reports Joe McDonald of the Worcester Telegram & Gazette (Twitter link). The 40-year-old does have a bit of previous experience with the Bruins having served as an assistant coach with AHL Providence in 2017-18 before Washington hired him to be the head coach in AHL Hershey.  Carbery got his first taste of working behind an NHL bench this season when Toronto hired him as an assistant coach last summer.

Offseason Checklist: Minnesota Wild

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Wild.

This past season was an interesting one for the Wild.  They were one of the top scoring teams in the NHL and knowing the cap adventure that lies ahead (more on that shortly), GM Bill Guerin made some moves to add at the deadline in the hopes of a long playoff run.  Instead, despite finishing fifth overall in points during the regular season, they were ousted in the opening round by St. Louis.  Now, Guerin has some work to do to be able to keep as much of this core together as possible which is the focal point of Minnesota’s checklist.

Free Up Cap Space

It’s not as if Guerin hasn’t known this was going to be at the top of his list at some point.  It would have been the case had they not bought out Ryan Suter and Zach Parise and it still is the case with them being bought out as their dead cap charge went up by $4MM for each player.  That’s hard for any team to overcome.  And that’s not the total charge, that’s just the increase; the total is over $12MM for next season.  (If you want to look ahead a year, it goes up by another $1MM each in the 2023 offseason as well; this isn’t just a one-time situation to navigate through.)

At the moment, Minnesota has a little over $7MM in cap space with which to sign multiple forwards, a defenseman, and a second goaltender.  That, on its own, might not sound so bad but once you factor in who some of those players are – that list comprises the rest of their checklist – it’s considerably worse.

It’s not as if there are some contracts that are well above market value on their books but $12MM in dead space is going to be very difficult to overcome.  A small move or two to free up some extra wiggle room could be the difference in whether they can keep a key player or not.  There’s a lot at stake as a result.

Sign Or Trade Fiala

If you read the above and immediately thought of Kevin Fiala, you certainly won’t be alone.  The winger has been in trade speculation going back to last summer with this exact situation in mind.

If the two sides would have been able to work out a long-term agreement last summer, that might have been enough to put an end to that speculation.  Instead, Minnesota took the rare step of pre-emptively filing for arbitration before eventually settling on a $5.1MM salary for this past season.  Fiala then went and had a career year, picking up 33 goals and 52 assists in 82 games, all career highs.  Overall, the Wild received really good value on that deal but things are only going to go downhill from here for them.

Fiala is now a year away from unrestricted free agency and while the Wild can’t take him to arbitration again, he can take them to a hearing, get a nice raise from the arbitrator, and hit the open market in 2023 in the prime of his career.  A long-term deal could approach the $7.5MM to $8MM range and while Guerin probably wouldn’t mind giving that to him, they’d have to part with another core player to make that happen.  At this point, it seems likely that the 25-year-old will be traded.

While Fiala doesn’t have a no-trade clause, he holds the hammer on this front as well.  Fiala on a long-term contract has a lot more value than Fiala on a one-year deal.  Teams can’t put conditional draft picks in a trade that are dependent on whether or not he signs either.  Guerin will need to work hard to get maximum value for Fiala (likely in the form of futures or young roster players) but will also have to work hard with the pending RFA to find a suitor that he’s willing to forego the open market to sign with.  There’s a lot of work to do on this front in a short period of time.

Sign Second Goalie

Guerin surprised some with the acquisition of Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline in an effort to give them a second proven veteran goaltender for the playoffs.  He was a little better down the stretch than he was with Chicago and that got him most of the playing time against the Blues.  While it may have seemed like this was just a short-term pickup, Guerin has expressed a firm desire to keep Fleury around to split time with Cam Talbot next season.

While it’s certainly fair to say that Fleury will get considerably less than the $7MM AAV he had on his expiring contract, he still should have enough interest out there to get half of that price tag.  Even if Fiala moves for futures, Minnesota can’t afford Fleury at that price tag.  They have two options on that front.  One is to try to move a current roster player for someone making less and use those savings to afford Fleury’s new deal.  The other is to work out an incentive-laden deal that gives them the ability to roll over the bonuses onto the 2023-24 cap.  Of course, with the dead money going up, that’s only pushing the problem over, not fixing it.

If they’re unable to keep Fleury, Guerin will need to be aggressive on the open market for a replacement with Kaapo Kahkonen now in San Jose.  Talbot will turn 35 next month and while he’s still a capable NHL goaltender, he’s not someone that can handle 60-plus games next season.  They’ll need a fairly strong second option, one that will be able to play 30 or more games.  That will put them looking in the high-$2MM/low-$3MM range even if it isn’t Fleury.  Jesper Wallstedt is their goalie of the future but he’s a few years away from being NHL-ready.  They need to add another NHL option in the meantime over the coming weeks.

Re-Sign Middleton

The player Minnesota received in the Kahkonen trade, defenseman Jacob Middleton, is also in need of a new contract.  He’s a restricted free agent with salary arbitration rights and is a year away from UFA eligibility.  This is one of those situations where finding fair value is going to be a challenge.

Middleton has just 80 career NHL games under his belt, 66 of which came this season.  Heading into the year, he was a candidate for a deal around the $1MM range but after a strong showing with both the Sharks and Wild, he’s going to get more.  If it gets to an arbitrator, the award could be tricky to pin down because of the limited experience but that doesn’t give Guerin the hammer by any stretch since a low-ball offer could force Middleton to file for arbitration and see what his value is on the open market next summer.

A long-term contract doesn’t seem likely at this point given his limited track record but a deal that buys out a couple of UFA years could be doable.  The AAV would likely jump over $2MM in that situation but it would be a justifiable price.  Of course, the longer the contract, the harder it will be to fit the other pieces of the puzzle in from a salary cap perspective.  Middleton’s case isn’t as prominent as some of the others but it has to stay in the back of Guerin’s mind as he works his way through Fiala’s eventual trade and finding a second netminder.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Central Notes: Klingberg, Jets, Guenther

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While there has been a stated mutual desire for the Stars and John Klingberg to work out a contract extension, Pierre LeBrun reported in his latest column for The Athletic (subscription link) that there have been no recent discussions on that front and that the current expectation is that the defenseman will test the open market next month.  The 29-year-old has been one of the more consistent offensive producers in the NHL; over his eight-year career, only seven blueliners have more points than him over that stretch.  Klingberg is coming off a bargain seven-year deal that carried just a $4.25MM AAV and earlier reports suggested he was looking to nearly double that on a max-term agreement.  At this point, if he’s going to get that type of contract, it seems unlikely it will be coming from Dallas.

More from the Central:

  • The Jets are expected to meet with coaching candidate Barry Trotz this weekend, reports Postmedia’s Paul Friesen. The bench boss has been linked to multiple teams since being fired by the Islanders earlier this offseason and this will be the Manitoba native’s second interview with his hometown team.  Winnipeg currently has Dave Lowry as their interim head coach and while he is believed to be among the candidates that would be considered for the full-time role, their preference would certainly be to land a top-flight candidate like Trotz.
  • Coyotes prospect Dylan Guenther will miss the upcoming Memorial Cup due to a lower-body injury sustained in the WHL Final against Seattle, notes PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan (Twitter link). While his playoff run came to an early end, it was still a strong one for the 2021 ninth-overall selection as he had 13 goals in 16 postseason contests after putting up 45 goals and 46 assists in just 59 regular season contests to finish sixth in league scoring.

Free Agent Focus: Ottawa Senators

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Senators.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Joshua Norris — While Senators GM Pierre Dorion previously called the day he traded Mark Stone to the Vegas Golden Knights “one of the proudest” days he’d had in his career as a GM, it’s his trade of Erik Karlsson that was the real stroke of brilliance. Not only did the Senators receive the draft pick used to select budding star Tim Stutzle in exchange for their captain, they also received center Joshua Norris, who was then in his freshman season at the University of Michigan. Norris was drafted 19th overall in 2017 and has blossomed into a lethal goal scorer. With Brady Tkachuk at his side, Norris scored 35 goals this year and finished 2021-22 with 55 points in 66 games, a 68-point pace. Norris also showed some improvements in his defensive game. While Norris’ 20.3% shooting percentage is high enough to raise questions about the sustainability of his goal scoring, Norris did have a 17.7% shooting percentage in 2020-21 and some high-end goal scorers are simply capable of sustaining inflated shooting percentages thanks to their elite shooting talent. Norris could be in that category, and the Senators shouldn’t drag their feet in locking Norris down on a long-term deal. Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki’s eight-year, $7.875MM extension could be a solid number for a maximum-term deal, and it would come under Tkachuk’s $8.2MM cap hit, meaning Norris wouldn’t be making more than the captain. The Senators may want something a bit cheaper, maybe along the lines of the five-year, $6.1MM AAV extension Dylan Larkin signed, but with comparable young centers like Suzuki and the New Jersey Devils’ Nico Hischier signing long-term deals north of $7MM AAV, expect any long-term deal for Norris to come in at around that number as well.

F Mathieu Joseph — Joseph is an extremely interesting case heading into this offseason. Earlier in the season, his offseason case would have looked pretty simple. As an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent, Joseph would have had the option to take whatever the arbitrator awarded him and inch closer to a trip to unrestricted free agency. But now, there could be more appetite to get an extension done from the team side of the equation, thanks to a mid-season trade to the Senators. Joseph arrived in Ottawa in exchange for Nick Paul and found immediate success there. He fit naturally next to Norris and Tkachuk, and in the first week of April Joseph had 10 points in just four games. It was that four-game stretch that served as an endorsement of Dorion’s belief in Joseph, and also serves as the root of uncertainty with Joseph entering this offseason. Do they pay him for what they think he can be? Or do they opt to let him take a one-year deal in order to see if the talent he flashed is there to stay? It’s a risky situation, because either option could easily end up being a mistake. If he plays as he did in that stretch over the course of a full season in Ottawa, his price skyrockets. But if the Senators commit now, there’s the chance that his scoring outburst was just a mirage, and they’ve overpaid for the idea of a player rather than the reality of the one they have. With all that in mind, Joseph seems like an under-the-radar pick for the most intriguing restricted free agent situation of the offseason.

F Alex Formenton — This past season was the year that winger Alex Formenton finally broke into the NHL full-time, and his impressive rookie year couldn’t have come at a better time, as he’s lined himself up for a nice raise from the $747k cap hit he played on last season. Formenton scored 18 goals and 32 points in 79 games last year, a goal total that ranked fourth on the Senators. Formenton’s speed is his best asset, and he got to show it off on the penalty kill. Formenton averaged just under 2 minutes of short-handed ice time per game, on a penalty kill that impressively ranked 13th in the NHL. Formenton looks like he could be a long-term asset in the Senators’ middle-six, providing valuable goal-scoring, speed, and special-teams ability. While a bridge deal is definitely possible, the Senators could also look to sign Formenton to a long-term deal in order to protect against any improvements to his game driving up his price.  Perhaps the best contract to use as a guide would be Buffalo Sabres forward Alex Tuch, who signed a seven-year, $4.75MM deal with the Golden Knights after a rookie season where he scored 15 goals and 37 points in 78 games, similar numbers to Formenton’s this year. $4.75MM is a lot to commit to Formenton for what he is now, but teams should be paying for what players are going to do, rather than what they’ve already done. Tuch quickly made his contract look like a steal and Formenton definitely has the talent to do the same.

Other RFAs: F Adam Gaudette, D Erik Brannstrom, G Michael McNiven

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Chris Tierney — Like Norris, Tierney also came to Ottawa as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. Unlike Norris, though, Tierney has played his way out of a long-term stay in Ottawa rather than played his way into one. Tierney’s first season with the Senators was a great follow-up to the promising final season he had with the Sharks. While he only scored nine goals, he finished with 48 points. While some expected the 24-year-old Tierney to build off of that season and have it serve as the baseline for the production that could be expected of him, Tierney regressed. First only a little, with a small decline in 2019-20 to only 37 points in 71 games. But it was 2020-21 where things really went downhill, as Tierney had only 19 points in 55 games, the lowest he’d ever marked in an NHL season. This year was no better, as he had 18 points in 70 games. Dorion stated at his end-of-season press conference that Tierney would not be extended in Ottawa, so he will look to find a role with another club seeking to unlock the potential he showed just a few years ago.

D Victor Mete — While Mete is technically a pending restricted free agent, Dorion has already stated that Mete would not be issued a qualifying offer and would therefore become an unrestricted free agent, hence him being listed here. Mete is an interesting case, as he’s the sort of player that, on paper, a team like Ottawa should be committing to developing. Mete, now 24, was once one of the Montreal Canadiens’ top defensive prospects, and he first made the NHL playing as Shea Weber’s partner. But while Mete’s abilities in transition as a puck-mover were always his calling card, no other aspect of his game developed as the Canadiens had hoped. Mete famously took 126 games to score his first NHL goal, and the lack of development of the rest of his tools, beyond his abilities in transition, caused the Canadiens to eventually waive him. Many were calling for teams to claim Mete, and the Senators did just that. But unfortunately for the Senators and Mete, it was more of the same in Ottawa, and by 2021-22 he found himself a frequent healthy scratch. Mete enters the offseason with the chance to choose his destination for the first time in his career, and given his history there still is some reasonable hope that he could develop into an NHLer. But the clock’s ticking on him, and the choice of his next destination will go a long way in determining if he’ll eventually turn into the NHL defenseman many once believed he could be.

Other UFA’s: F Tyler Ennis, F Andrew Agozzino, F Clark Bishop, F Scott Sabourin, F Zachary Senyshyn, F Logan Shaw, D Dillon Heatherington, D Zac Leslie

Projected Cap Space

This is where the Senators have an advantage over other teams. In a flat-cap era where having flexibility under the salary cap is at an absolute premium, Ottawa has over $20MM in projected cap space entering this offseason. Sure, a lot of that should be earmarked for potential extensions for Norris, Formenton, or even an early deal for Stutzle, but they’ll still have more room to maneuver than most teams. That’ll be especially true if they find a way to get out from under Matt Murray’s $6.25MM AAV deal. A buyout seems like the most likely solution, as it would not only save the Senators $5MM in real cash but also give them $4.5MM in cap savings this year and $5.5MM next year, at the cost of $2.5MM in dead money for the next two seasons after that. With the Senators looking to go hunting for a big name this offseason, expect their advantageous cap position to be leveraged to a great degree in order to maximize their ability to compete in the near future.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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