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Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Mike Vellucci

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Via a team release this morning, Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Ron Hextall announced that the team has re-signed assistant coach Mike Vellucci to a two-year contract extension.

Vellucci, 56, is an extremely experienced and decorated coach and manager across the AHL and OHL. He served as the GM and head coach of the OHL’s Plymouth Whalers from 2001 to 2014, where he took home an OHL championship in 2007 and Coach of the Year honors in 2007 and 2013.

He then moved on to the Carolina Hurricanes organization, where he served as an assistant general manager and the director of hockey operations from 2014-2019, including spending the last two years as the head coach of their AHL affiliate in Charlotte. With the Checkers in 2019, Vellucci coached at the AHL All-Star Game, won the Calder Cup, and was named the AHL Coach of the Year. He then spent one year as the GM and head coach of the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins before joining Pittsburgh’s NHL staff.

Since joining the Penguins as an assistant coach in 2020-21, Vellucci has primarily been responsible for managing the team’s forwards and penalty-killing units. The team has a record of 83-41-14 since Vellucci joined their NHL staff, but he’s yet to experience a playoff series win with the Penguins at this level.

Speaking on the deal today, Hextall gave the following statement:

Mike is a dedicated coach who has proven to be a valuable addition since joining Pittsburgh. We’re excited to have him back behind the bench for two more seasons.

Pittsburgh’s penalty kill is ninth overall in the NHL (81.5%) since Vellucci joined the bench in 2020. This season, he’ll be tasked with working newcomers like Jan Rutta into the penalty-killing fold while still working closely with the team’s offense.

Free Agent Profile: Evgeny Svechnikov

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Once one of the more exciting prospects in hockey, Evgeny Svechnikov hasn’t fully developed into the talent the Detroit Red Wings were hoping for when they selected him 19th overall in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.  Taken just after Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor and Thomas Chabot, Svechnikov was expected to be a dynamic threat just like those three, using his size and natural offensive talent to create, and capitalize on, offensive chances. Unfortunately, the enticing skillset he brought didn’t translate to the NHL and now, at age 25, the winger finds himself, for the second time in as many years, a UFA after failing to secure a qualifying offer.

Growing up in Russia, Svechnikov made his way through the Russian youth hockey scene, eventually securing a spot in the AK Bars organization. He would play parts of two seasons with their MHL team and even made his KHL debut during his age-17 season. The following year, 2014-15, Svechnikov made the jump to North America, joining the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles of the QMJHL, where he immediately impressed, scoring 32 goals along with 46 assists in 55 games. After the Red Wings selected him that June, Svechnikov returned to Cape Breton, dominating again with almost identical numbers: 32 goals and 47 assists in 50 games. The forward made his professional debut that season, skating in two playoff contests for the AHL’s Grand Rapids Griffins.

Svechnikov didn’t look back, playing a full season for the Griffins in 2016-17, tallying 20 goals with 31 assists in 74 games, showing he was ready for pro hockey in North America. Frustratingly for both player and organization, that would be Svechnikov’s last true step as a prospect. The next season, he would record just 23 points in 57 AHL games along with four points in 14 NHL games, following that up with 25 points in 51 AHL games and zero points in four NHL games. The 2020-21 season wasn’t much better and that summer, the Red Wings would fail to qualify him, making Svechnikov a free agent for the first time in his career.

Now 24, Svechnikov received strong interest from the Winnipeg Jets organization, signing an AHL contract and a PTO that eventually became an NHL contract. The Jets gave Svechnikov his first taste of full-time NHL action in 2021-22, but the winger still couldn’t put together a season that reflected the promise he once had. Over 72 games in Winnipeg, Svechnikov had just seven goals and 12 assists. That campaign did show he could play a full-time role for an NHL team, but perhaps also served to prove he was not set to become the player he was projected to be.

Stats:

2021-22: 72 GP, 7-12-19, -4 rating, 38 PIMs, 78 shots, 48.8 CF%, 10:45 ATOI

Career: 113 GP, 12-19-31, -10 rating, 58 PIMs, 125 shots, 49.3 CF%, 10:40 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Finding a good fit for Svechnikov seems tricky. One aspect to consider is what does he bring to the table, and what is its value? At 25, he’s still relatively young and fresher than some of the veteran options that remain. Despite being fairly young relative to the other options, he still comes with experience, skating in 113 NHL games, as well as 186 in the AHL. Unlike many other players with his age and experience, Svechnikov brings his former prospect status. In other words, not too long ago, he had a ceiling higher than this. Almost 26, it’s rather unlikely he manages to hit or approach that ceiling, but he could still have a chance to bounce back to some extent and produce more than he has. Still, after his 51 points in 74 AHL games in 2016-17, he hasn’t been able to come close to replicating the production in the NHL or AHL.

Something worth considering is how little opportunity it seems Svehnikov has had when he does get on the ice in the NHL. Looking more closely at his career, Svechnikov has just 125 shots on goal. Granted, he’s only skated in 113 games, but it would be difficult to score at a high-rate when not shooting at a high-rate. It would also be difficult to shoot at such a rate, when averaging just 10:40 of time-on-ice, like Svechnikov has in his career. His 10:45 of time-on-ice and 78 shots in 2021-22, his only full season in the league, are fairly consistent with that of the rest of his career. Difficult, but fair: if Svechnikov can’t prove he can produce, he also won’t see those opportunities either.

Returning to the issue of where Svechnikov fits best, the answer might be a team looking for a diamond-in-the-rough talent, but also willing to give him the time and opportunity to succeed. Most teams won’t be able to justify giving a player with 31 points in 113 games those sorts of minutes, and those that may have them available could choose to give them to younger players who still hold their prospect status, leaving Svechnikov in a difficult state of limbo. One fit could be the Chicago Blackhawks, who appear committed to let their young players to develop in other leagues and have veterans hold the line for now. With the organization committed to the rebuild, they could be in a place to give Svechnikov some extra opportunities to prove his value.

Projected Contract:

Last offseason, Svechnikov signed a PTO with the Winnipeg Jets, earning a league minimum contract that he signed just prior to the start of the regular season. Over a month into free agency, it would appear Svechnikov is headed down that road once again. If he is offered a contract, whether that be in lieu of a PTO or afterwards, chance are it will not only be at the league minimum of $750K, but will be a two-way deal, much the same as it was this season.

Snapshots: Colton, IIHF, 2026 WJC, Rutherford

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The Tampa Bay Lightning’s incredible 2021 Stanley Cup run gave Ross Colton his first Stanley Cup in just his first try, however it wasn’t the rookie’s first time at a Stanley Cup Final. The New Jersey native grew up a huge fan of the New Jersey Devils, and in speaking with NJ.com’s Ryan Novozinsky, discussed his fandom, which included attending every home game of the Devils’ 2012 run to the Stanley Cup Finals. When approached with the idea of playing for his hometown team one day, Colton said “[t]hat would obviously be so cool.”

As much as the prospect of a New Jersey native and Devils fan playing for the team would be, Colton did pump the brakes on the narrative a bit when speaking to NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman, saying he would like to spend his entire career with Tampa Bay, but acknowledged the business-end of the sport, with players needing to be paid and teams having to conform to the salary cap. Colton is entering the second year of a two-year, $1.125MM AAV contract that will leave him a RFA for one more year ahead of his 2024 UFA status. Considering Tampa’s cap issues over the past few seasons, the gritty Colton could be a luxury they can’t afford, however the organization has shown a willingness to get creative in order to keep as much of their core as they are financially able to.

  • Speaking on TSN, and relayed by The Athletic’s Corey Pronman, IIHF President Luc Tardif said Belarus and Russia will be suspended for the next year, and that decisions on whether to permit the countries to participate in IIHF events will be made year-by-year going forward. Pronman adds that this “next year” would likely refer more specifically to the 2022-23 hockey season. Being suspended for at least that length will cost the countries the ability to participate in IIHF-sanctioned events, including most notably the World Junior Championships and the World Championships. The two countries were suspended by the IIHF in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year.
  • Sticking with the topic of IIHF tournaments, TSN’s Gord Miller reports that the 2026 World Juniors will be held in the United States. Miller adds that a likely destination would be Las Vegas, Nevada, a location he notes was a dream of the late Director of USA Hockey, Jim Johansson. Putting the tournament in Las Vegas would be a feat not only for USA Hockey, but the NHL, whose expansion into the area, as well as other warm climates, was met with skepticism. A successful 2026 tournament in Las Vegas, should it happen, would no doubt be a testament to the growth and success of ice hockey throughout North America and could lead to continued growth and exploration in other non-traditional markets.
  • Since abruptly stepping away from his duties as General Manager of the Pittsburgh Penguins just a few games into the 2020-21 season, fans and media alike have been trying to figure out what exactly made Jim Rutherford leave the organization so suddenly. Many speculated that his departure had to do with disagreements over the direction of the team, but as the now-Canucks executive told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that was not the case. Carefully wording his response, Rutherford explained that when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, being largely confined to his home took a toll on him, which left him without the necessary mental toughness to handle his duties. He added that he didn’t believe he necessarily had any mental health issues, but that things he could generally shake off as typical of the job, began to stick with him. It’s an interesting response, and not as dramatic as a feud with upper management like many had thought, but is surely relatable to the experience of many during the height of the pandemic. As much as owners, executives, coaches, and players may feel super-human or not-so-tangible to fans, Rutherford’s experience shows their experiences are just as human as that of their fans.

Latest On New York Islanders Offseason

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It was no secret that in order to get better after last season’s disappointment, the New York Islanders needed to find a way to add scoring and get younger on the blueline. They managed to do one of those things, acquiring 22-year-old defenseman Alexander Romanov from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for their 2022 first-round pick. However, the team was unable to, at least so far, address its lackluster offense. The Islanders had been connected to star free agents Johnny Gaudreau, who ultimately signed with the division-rival Columbus Blue Jackets, and Nazem Kadri who recently signed with the Calgary Flames.

Today on NHL Network, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman discussed the Islanders with Bill Pidto, saying that while he believes they were interested in Kadri, they were never able to create the cap space to make it work. Interestingly, the Islanders actually have the fourth most salary cap space available according to CapFriendly, with just under $11.2MM available. However, the team does need to re-sign the recently-acquired Romanov, forward Kieffer Bellows, and breakout defenseman Noah Dobson. Between those three, it could command a large portion of their space. Though it may not take all of it, it would most likely bring them below the $7MM needed to, at the very least, match the offer Kadri accepted in Calgary.

To create that space, Lou Lamoriello could have opted to try to move one, or both of, wingers Josh Bailey and Anthony Beauvillier. Though both are solid contributors on Long Island, moving their $5MM or $4.15MM cap hits, respectively, could have created the space necessary to sign a dynamic player like Kadri. Given the cost for Calgary to trade away Sean Monahan, who had just one year left at $6.375MM, the price for the Islanders to move one of their forwards may have been too steep to make it worthwhile. Another option could have been to move goaltender Semyon Varlamov, who carries a $5MM AAV, but is playing behind star netminder Ilya Sorokin. However, Lamoriello made clear his intention to keep the veteran netminder.

Also of note, Friedman added that he does believe deals with Romanov and Dobson are already done, saying he believes Dobson’s deal “is a big number.” Friedman also believes Romanov’s contract could come somewhere in the $3MM AAV range. Having the deals done, but not announced, is in keeping with Lamoriello’s previous dealings, including last summer’s rather late announcements, most notably of a Kyle Palmieri contract. Although Friedman didn’t mention Bellows as having an agreed-upon deal, it is worth noting the winger was arbitration-eligible, but neither him nor the Islanders filed. This surely doesn’t mean a deal is done, but would be a curious choice if nothing had been agreed upon (or could simply indicate very amicable talks between the two).

Tucker Poolman’s Health Status Still Uncertain

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After signing a four-year, $10MM contract with the Vancouver Canucks last offseason, defenseman Tucker Poolman was limited to just 40 games in his first campaign in British Columbia. Dealing with migraines and post-concussion symptoms throughout the season, Poolman had just three points all year and played just 17 minutes per game.

There is some optimism on Poolman’s health status, though, although it remains to be seen whether or not he’s healthy enough to play once the high-intensity training camp environment begins. His agent, Dean Grillo, noted to The Province’s Ben Kuzma that Poolman has indeed been training and skating all offseason, slowly trying to work his way back up to game readiness without inducing a recurrence of concussion symptoms.

As Kuzma notes, headaches and migraines have been a persistent issue for Poolman throughout his career, with various degrees of linkage to concussions. With other injuries such as major shoulder surgery and shot-blocking-related ailments, the 29-year-old Poolman has faced a lot of adversity in his NHL career.

If Poolman can’t return to start the season, expect Kyle Burroughs to get some more reps in the NHL as a third-pairing, defensive-minded body. Burroughs had five points in 42 games last season with Vancouver.

NHL, NHLPA Announce COVID Protocol For 2022-23

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The hockey season is approaching, meaning the league and player’s union needed to negotiate the COVID testing protocols once again. The NHL and NHLPA announced the 2022-23 protocols today, which mirror the ones that the league ended last season with.

Mainly, testing will only happen for symptomatic individuals and those crossing a border. If a positive result is returned, players must isolate for five days if asymptomatic, or up to ten days if experiencing symptoms. Symptomatic cases can exit isolation and return to the team as early as day six, if their symptoms are resolving and have tested negative on one of the league’s approved methods.

Unvaccinated players will have the same status; they are unable to cross the border to play, meaning the team is allowed to suspend them without pay for any days missed. However, if an unvaccinated or vaccinated player contracts COVID, it will be deemed a hockey-related injury and they will not forfeit any salary or other compensation.

Ominously, the league does also retain the right to postpone, reschedule, and cancel any games or events during the season if they deem it poses a material risk to players’ health or the health of others.

There is no mention of a COVID taxi squad this time around – hopefully something that is in the past for good.

Snapshots: Edvinsson, Rangers Defense, Staios

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With this year’s unusual August World Juniors, it’s not a surprise to see some of the biggest prospects skip the tournament in order to prepare for upcoming NHL training camps, and potentially NHL seasons. Still, not all have done that and a few players who are likely to play in the league next year, have opted to represent their country in the tournament. Among them are Mason McTavish, Kent Johnson, and Simon Edvinsson. The sixth-overall selection in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft to the Detroit Red Wings, Edvinsson has hopes, and a real chance, to make Detroit’s opening night roster after signing his entry-level contract back in April.

Considering the likelihood that Edvinsson will not only be at Red Wings training camp in a few short weeks but also be expected to play a full season, his first, in Hockey Town, it’s interesting to see him join Sweden at the tournament. However, as Edvinsson told Steven Ellis of The Hockey News, “I talked to Detroit about it, we had a conversation, and everything went good. I’m focused on this tournament now and after that, I’ll go back to Detroit…I’m hungry for (training camp), but right now we need to win this.” It’s not surprising to learn Edvinsson consulted the Red Wings about his decision to play, but the defenseman’s winning attitude, sacrificing himself and elongating a very important season for the sake of winning is surely encouraging to Detroit, who are hoping to develop a top pairing defenseman in Edvinsson alongside Calder Trophy winner Moritz Seider.

  • Larry Brooks of the New York Post wonders if the New York Rangers could make one more move by bringing in a low-cost left defenseman for the team’s third pair. Brooks cites Rangers head coach Gerard Gallant’s preference for size, especially among defenseman, and the current projection of Zachary Jones and Libor Hajek splitting time in that spot. Jones, listed at 5’11 and 185 pounds, doesn’t possess much in the way of size, though he is a talented young player who could see more ice time now as part of his development, having averaged just 15:05 of time-on-ice in 22 career regular season games. At 6’2 and 203 pounds, Hajek possesses some of that size, but as a healthy scratch for a whopping 60 games last season, seeing him jump to a full-time or even platoon role next year for a Rangers team looking for a Stanley Cup might be a bit of a question mark. The team has just over $1MM in available cap space with players like Danny DeKeyser, Ryan Murray, and especially the 6’6 Ben Harpur representing players that fit the bill: inexpensive left-defensemen with size.
  • One of the newest members of the Florida Panthers organization, defenseman Nathan Staios told NHL.com’s Alain Poupart that he’s going to do his best to try to make the Panthers out of training camp, but understands the likely trajectory of his development. “Wherever they want me, I’m good,” Staios said. “I’m gonna work my hardest to make the big team, but a couple years of development in the AHL, I’m totally good with that. And I’m really looking forward to that as well,” Staios added. Trusting the process with his development will be necessary for the Ontario native, just as it is any prospect, but after a slow yet steady rise in his value as a prospect, his eagerness to continue this way will be an essential part of the 21-year-old’s success. Having been undrafted by an NHL team, Staios continued to work on his game in the OHL, breaking out after a trade from the Windsor Spitfires to the Hamilton Bulldogs prior to the 2019-20 season. This season, though, vaulted Staios to legitimate prospect status, as he tallied 15 goals and 51 assists in 59 games from the blueline for a talented Hamilton squad.

Free Agent Profile: Derick Brassard

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Once again, the height of free agency has come and gone and veteran journeyman Derick Brassard finds himself without an NHL contract heading into next season. Though not an ideal situation, Brassard may not be too uncomfortable, having been in this situation each of the past few years, the team at PHR profiling the forward in this series each of the previous three offseasons as well (2019, 2020, 2021). Brassard may find himself looking for a contract late in the game for a fourth straight offseason, but given the value he brings and his ability to secure a spot each year, there is reason for optimism.

Once an important top-six piece for some talent-rich New York Rangers teams competing for Stanley Cups, Brassard’s role, and team, has changed plenty since. After being a top draft choice of the Columbus Blue Jackets, he found early success and was eventually dealt to the Rangers as the main piece for Marian Gaborik. The center thrived during his time in Manhattan, hitting a career-high 60 points in 2014-15 and a career-high 27 goals the following season. While there, he also joined the Rangers on four straight playoff runs, including a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2014. As the Rangers’ run of success wound-down, they chose to move Brassard to the Ottawa Senators, ultimately bringing in Mika Zibanejad in the process.

With the end of his Rangers run, Brassard began his journey down the path of a journeyman, spending a season-and-a-half with Ottawa, followed by stops with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Colorado Avalanche, Florida Panthers, New York Islanders, Arizona Coyotes, Philadelphia Flyers, and Edmonton Oilers. Turning back to the first of those Free Agent Profiles, Brassard wound up signing a one-year, $1.2MM deal with the Islanders at the conclusion of a five-year, $25MM pact. The move paid dividends for both sides, Brassard recording 32 points in 66 regular season games for the Islanders, adding another eight points in 18 playoff games in the bubble.

At the conclusion of the season, the Islanders let Brassard go and after another slow offseason and Brassard signed with the Arizona Coyotes for one-year at $1MM, giving the rebuilding Coyotes a veteran presence in their lineup on top of 20 points in 53 games. The veteran once again had a slow offseason in the summer of 2021, but found work, this time on a one-year, $825K deal with the Philadelphia Flyers, who moved him to the Edmonton Oilers at the trade deadline. Between both teams, Brassard managed 19 points in 46 regular season games, though 16 of those points came in just 31 games as a member of the Flyers, somewhat of an impressive return to form for the 34-year-old.

Stats:

2021-22: 46 GP, 8 G, 11 A, 19 pts, +4 rating, 16 PIMs, 62 shots, 52.0 CF%, 12:55 ATOI

Career: 951 GP, 202 G, 320 A, 522 pts, -31 rating, 435 PIMs, 1,843 shots, 55.9 CF%, 15:56 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Given Brassard’s presumably low price-tag, most NHL teams would be able to fit the veteran in, however who would be interested is another question. With his production dropping off rather steeply over the previous five years, finding any sort of significant role on a contender might be tough. After his time with the Islanders, making a run to the Conference Finals, Brassard played with Arizona in 2020-21 and the Flyers in 2021-22, both teams that struggled, but was ultimately traded to the Edmonton Oilers. Brassard played in 15 games with Edmonton down the stretch, but averaged just 9:53 of time on ice, down significantly from the 14:22 he averaged in Philadelphia and played just one playoff game during Edmonton’s run to the Western Conference Finals.

Rough as that may sound for Brassard, it doesn’t mean there isn’t an important role for him to play somewhere. In fact, he did impress during his time with the Flyers, averaging more than half a point per game with them. When he is given the opportunity to produce via ice-time, he generally does; however, it may only be a rebuilder that can give him that opportunity. What’s more is Brassard has proven to be a responsible forward who can make the right play anywhere on the ice and shift around a lineup, a player who might be a terrific fit to work alongside a team’s young players, creating and finishing opportunities with them and cleaning up mistakes they may make. That said, a return to Arizona or Philadelphia, or somewhere new like the Chicago Blackhawks, Montreal Canadiens, or Seattle Kraken may make sense.

Projected Contract:

Unfortunately for Brassard, he has seen his salary dip each of the past three seasons, coming from $3.5MM in 2018-19 (the final year of a five-year, $25MM front-loaded deal with a $5MM AAV), to $1.2MM to $1MM and finally to $825K this year. Most likely, Brassard won’t sign for more than the $825K he had last season and it could be as low as the $750K minimum salary. With his career track record and his performance this year, especially with the Flyers, it’s hard to imagine Brassard is headed for a two-way contract, but that reality is certainly possible. More likely, and perhaps most likely, is that Brassard will accept a PTO from a team and attempt to either make that team, or hope to impress enough to be released from the PTO and sign an NHL deal with a club in need of a versatile veteran forward.

Moving from city to city year in and year out, sometimes with multiple stops in a season can be incredibly stressful on a player and their family, and Brassard is likely no exception. However, this system may be the way of the future for the soon-to-be 35-year-old if he wants to stay in the NHL. On the bright side, his ability to adapt to environments and maintain his solid, responsible play is another attractive feature to his game for a front office and coaching staff.

Free Agent Profile: Paul Stastny

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When the Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup this year, they did so without a player who many thought a decade ago would be a long-term franchise cornerstone. That player is Paul Stastny, who, now 36 years old, remains a free agent almost a month after the signing period opened this offseason. After falling to the second round in the 2005 NHL Draft, Stastny blew the doors off the Avalanche franchise with three out of four 70-point seasons to begin his NHL career in 2007, 2008, and 2010.

While he never replicated that offensive success, largely due to a variety of injuries, Stastny remained a capable top-six two-way center for years to come. Now a veteran of over 1,000 games, though, Stastny is coming off his second full season with the Winnipeg Jets and remains without a Stanley Cup. He may be somewhat of a forgotten name as his best seasons are behind him, but Stastny’s still managed 74 points in 127 games over the last two seasons while averaging over 17 minutes per game. It’s fair to say that while the end of the road for Stastny may be near, it’s not here yet.

Stastny’s 16-year resume with Winnipeg and Colorado in addition to time with the St. Louis Blues and Vegas Golden Knights still make him a valuable asset to teams looking to add cohesiveness in their locker room as they vie for a championship. He hasn’t been a name that’s popped up in many rumors, but he should certainly be on the radar of teams as the offseason slogs on.

Stats

2021-22: 71 GP, 21G, 24A, 45 pts, +14 rating, 14 PIMs, 141 shots, 17:47 ATOI
Career: 1072 GP, 284G, 516A, 800 pts, +50 rating, 484 PIMs, 2246 shots, 18:53 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Poetically enough, a reunion with the team that drafted him shouldn’t be out of the question. If the Avalanche can’t manage to re-sign Nazem Kadri this late in the game, they have more than enough cap space to accommodate a reasonable one-year deal for Stastny. Providing a little more offensive upside than J.T. Compher and more experience than Alex Newhook, Stastny could be a strong short-term solution to Colorado’s open spot at center on the second line.

Another team that could look to acquire Stastny to fill the same role to shelter a younger player is the Carolina Hurricanes. While Jesperi Kotkaniemi will get paid a decent chunk of change next year, he hasn’t really done much to earn that dollar value with his performance. With a team like Carolina that’s so close to winning, Stastny could be a desirable veteran backup to Sebastian Aho, and, with Carolina’s depth on the wing, he’d have a lot of offensive support. The team would likely need to shed cap to make room for him, however.

Projected Contract

Stastny is coming off a one-year $3.75MM contract with Winnipeg. With a decent performance last season, too, there will be a team out there able and willing to pay him more than the league minimum. While he likely won’t replicate that dollar value, a contract in the $1.75MM-$2.5MM range could be there for Stastny in the coming days.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Comparing The Johnny Gaudreau, Jonathan Huberdeau, And Matthew Tkachuk Contracts

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The 2022 offseason has been a particularly memorable one thus far and is still not over. When we think back to this offseason years from now, the likely storyline that will be remembered most will be the major contracts and superstar shuffling that primarily involved the Calgary Flames. In a matter of days, Calgary lost franchise cornerstone Johnny Gaudreau to the Columbus Blue Jackets in free agency, found out that their other cornerstone Matthew Tkachuk would not consider a long-term extension with them, traded Tkachuk with an extension in place to the Florida Panthers, who proceeded to send their own franchise player in Jonathan Huberdeau back to the Flames alongside star defenseman MacKenzie Weegar, with Huberdeau ultimately signing his own massive extension.

That’s enough franchise-altering transactions to last some teams a decade or two, but Calgary fit it in in under a month, and all of this before even considering the impact these all had on Columbus and Florida. With the dust finally starting to settle and only Weegar left to deal with in Calgary, the attention can begin to turn to how these players will fit in with their teams, how their teams will build around them, and of course, how these contracts will ultimately play out.

Seeing as the three star forwards have a combined zero games played on their current contracts, it feels a bit premature to judge the contracts. However, given previous history with big-money deals like this and the fascinating nature in which they all came about, seeing how they all compare to one another and what each team might be faced with is an interesting exercise. Because it’s premature, we’ll look at previous history and we’ll consider what is more probable to happen rather than what is possible to happen. In other words, it’s possible Huberdeau immediately regresses into a third-line winger, but not probable. Instead, it’s probable he’s a similar player to the one he has been with some regression in his mid-30’s.

So, on this quiet Sunday in the NHL, take some time to carefully compare and contras these different contracts, not only to each other, but those from recent NHL history.

Johnny Gaudreau

The Contract: Gaudreau signed a seven-year, $68.5MM contract on the opening day of free agency with Columbus, who was then considered a surprise dark horse for his services. The deal carries a $9.75MM cap hit, comprised of $7.75MM in base salary and a $2MM signing bonus in each year of the contract. It also comes with a no-movement clause and a modified no-trade clause in the final three years of the deal where Gaudreau can submit a list of 10 teams he is willing to be dealt to.

Reasons for Optimism: Even at just 29, Gaudreau is a seasoned veteran of the NHL who has had plenty of personal and team ups and downs throughout his career. He was fortunate to have by far the best season of his career prior to hitting the free agent market, but this wasn’t exactly a breakout season either. Gaudreau put up 115 points this season, 40 of them goals, but has had as many as 99 points in the past, 36 of those goals, in 2018-19, a season where offense wasn’t up nearly as much as it was this year.

Also worth considering is Gaudreau’s production while playing alongside players like Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm, and Andrew Mangiapane. Some may argue that players like these simply serve to enhance Gaudreau’s numbers, however he was able to balance his need for puck control along with the needs of his teammates, creating a heap of goals and assists for not only himself, but the others, Tkachuk and Lindholm hitting the back of the net 42 times apiece and Mangiapane 35 times this season. On top of this, his 90 even strength points this year serve to show Gaudreau’s impact is not simply felt when his team is in the most offensively-favorable situations, but rather when the game is at its most balanced.

Reasons for Concern: Listed at 5’9″ and 165 pounds, Gaudreau is among the smaller players in the league, though size hasn’t been an issue thus far. The primary reason Gaudreau has been as great as he has, even with his size, is his elite skating. Gaudreau has been able to utilize his speed in order to protect the puck, create plays and make space for himself and his teammates, driving much of his dynamic gameplay. The forward hasn’t taken much of a step back and doesn’t figure to for a few more seasons, however as he gets into his mid-30’s, it stands to reason that some of his speed may be lost, and though he’ll be far from slow, what impact that has on his play style, especially given his frame, could have an impact on his performance.

Another worry as far as the value of the contract is concerned is Gaudreau’s previous inconsistencies. Yes, he has played near this level of elite in the past and his “lesser” performances have still been All Star level, but with a cap hit of $9.75MM, now Gaudreau’s ability to perform at this elite level year in and year out will be a prime factor in how his contract is evaluated long-term.

Jonathan Huberdeau

The Contract: Unlike Gaudreau and Tkachuk, Huberdeau’s contract doesn’t kick in for another year. The longtime Panther forward signed an eight-year, $84MM contract that will begin in the 2023-24 season, with one year at $5.9MM remaining on his current deal. The upcoming contract carries an AAV of $10.5MM with varying signing bonuses and base salaries. In sum, Huberdeau will take home a $7MM signing bonus in the first, second, third, and sixth year, a $9.5MM signing bonus in the fourth, fifth, and seventh years, and a $5MM signing bonus in the eighth year, with the remainder to be paid in base salary, constituting an even $10.5MM per season. His deal will also provide a full no-movement clause which allows Calgary limited trade availability in the final two years, Huberdeau picking 12 teams he is willing to be traded to. Given the even spread of salary, high signing bonuses and very strong movement protection, one could consider Huberdeau immovable and buyout proof for the next nine years.

Reasons for Optimism: Huberdeau’s 115 points in 2021-22 tied him for second in the NHL alongside Gaudreau. Also like Gaudreau, 2021-22 represented somewhat of a breakout for the winger, who was already playing at an elite level, but took another step forward in his production. The former Panther averaged 1.12 points-per-game in the three seasons prior to this one, stepping up to 1.43 this season. While Calgary is surely betting on him being the player he was this year for Florida, if Huberdeau is more like the player he was in the few years prior, he will still be worth at or around his $10.5MM cap hit, meaning that the Flames do have some room for Huberdeau to take a step back from his 2021-22 without it significantly impacting the value of the deal.

Additionally, Huberdeau’s game is one of an elite passer and playmaker that can find the back of the net plenty as well. However, his game has never necessarily relied on his skating, but instead his hands, vision, and hockey IQ on top of quality skating. It stands to reason that Huberdeau, like Gaudreau and many other players, might lose a step in his mid-30’s, which would be the middle of the contract, however given that his game relies primarily on skills that are unlikely to take the same kind of step back, he should be able to maintain his level of play or something close to it for longer than might be expected.

Reasons for Concern: As discussed, Huberdeau’s contract will be near impossible for Calgary to buyout or move down the road, but that alone is not necessarily a reason to be concerned. The trouble will come if Huberdeau cannot maintain the level of play that turned him into one of the NHL’s premier forwards of the past few years. Although it would seem he could maintain that level of play a bit longer, perhaps into his mid-30’s, the contract runs through Huberdeau’s age-37 season. Even if he were to age well, there are very few recent examples of players at that age that have been worth a cap hit of around $10.5MM. Still, the issue doesn’t have to be black and white, and if Huberdeau can produce at a high level, even if not necessarily worth every penny of his cap hit in the later seasons of the deal, it may not be a bargain, but may not be a disaster either.

Matthew Tkachuk

The Contract: Tkachuk’s contract was an interesting case of a true sign-and-trade. The forward technically signed with the  Flames, who then turned and dealt him to the Panthers. Nonetheless, this was one that both Florida and Tkachuk had wanted and has no effect on the Flames outside of their return. The eight-year, $76MM contract carries a $9.5MM cap hit, the lowest of the three players compared here. The deal carries a largely front-loaded structure paid primarily through signing bonuses, each year of the contract paying just a $1MM base salary.

The first year of the contract contains no protections from movement or trades, but then contains a full no-movement clause through 2027-28. Starting in 2028-29, the final two years of the contract contain a modified no-trade clause where Tkachuk can submit a 16 team no-trade list.

Reasons for Optimism: At just 24 years old, Tkachuk’s eight-year deal carries him through his age 32 season, putting him on the UFA market a few months prior to his 33rd birthday. The main advantage to Tkachuk’s contract as compared to the other two is clearly his age, this long-term deal essentially covering his entire prime. Being able to secure one of the games better two-way forwards, a true elite point producer and perhaps the league’s best agitator all rolled into one for under $10M for his entire prime is nothing short of a major win for Florida, especially as they deal with their own salary cap issues. Even considering the cost to acquire Tkachuk, the team now has two of the games best players in Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov signed through the 2029-30 season for under $20MM, giving them two players at a set price they can build around for the rest of the decade.

Reasons for Concern: A $9.5MM AAV for a 24-year-old coming off a 42 goal, 104 point season sounds hard to beat in today’s NHL, and it very well might be. But, say, what if that 1.27 points-per-game player actually only provided 0.88 points-per-game? This question will be the main point of concern for the Florida Panthers as they embark on this eight-year journey with Tkachuk, who averaged those 0.88 points-per-game over the three seasons prior to last. The player Tkachuk was over those three seasons, or his entire career for that matter, is no doubt an incredibly valuable asset, but for a cap-strung team, any overpayment on that player, no matter how good, could be an issue. Given his age and previous track record, it’s highly unlikely Tkachuk will be an objectively “bad” player during this contract, but living up to his AAV given he has only produced at this incredibly elite level just once, is of concern.

Not at all Tkachuk’s fault, he will have to contend with the price Florida paid to acquire him. Huberdeau, Weegar, prospect Cole Schwindt, and a first-round pick is a hefty price to pay for any player and that return package will be tied to Tkachuk and his performance as time goes on, especially with Huberdeau and Weegar both in their prime right now, and Huberdeau signed long-term in Calgary. This won’t have any bearing on the overall value of Tkachuk’s contract, but it is worth mentioning given how polarizing the trade itself is.

Other Comparables

The three contracts, all tied to one another and given in short order, will forever bond them to each other. However, since they are all their own, they will have to be evaluated that way as well, and not based on the performance of the others. Also considering that the players haven’t played a single game under their new deals, it’s hard to truly forecast them. One way to make those guesses more educated though, is to look at a few previous examples of similar contracts.

One example is New York Rangers winger Artemi Panarin, who signed a seven-year, $81.5MM contract carrying a cap hit just over $11.64MM per season. Panarin’s cap hit is over a million more per season than Huberdeau at $10.5MM but as a UFA, headed to a brand new team, is a relatable player in some form to all three. Signing Panarin gave the then-rebuilding Rangers a jumpstart, pushing them back into competitiveness quicker than many had imagined, and the winger has played up to his contract thus far. But, having taken somewhat of a step back in this year’s playoffs and on the wrong side of 30 with four years left, the reality of just how immovable Panarin is has resonated with many.

Panarin signing just prior to age 28 aligns most closely with Gaudreau, who signed just prior to turning 29, but carries with him an interesting distinction to all three here: his breakout to superstar status happened after he signed with the Rangers. After tallying a career-high 87 points in 79 games with Columbus in 2018-19, Panarin hit 95 points in just 69 games in his first season in Manhattan, taking his game to new heights. As well and good as this is, it raises the question: if Panarin took another step after signing and hasn’t taken much of a step back at age 30, what will Gaudreau, Huberdeau, and Tkachuk need to do to live up to their contracts?

Another example is John Tavares, who left the New York Islanders to sign a seven-year, $77MM deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs in July of 2018. Much like Panarin, Tavares was everything Toronto was hoping he would be when they signed him, scoring 47 goals for 88 points in his first season. However, since then, the Islanders captain turned Toronto captain hasn’t been able to repeat his success with either team, failing to be a point-per-game player since his Maple Leafs debut. Now 31, admittedly needing to work on his skating, Tavares is far from a bad player by any stretch of the imagination, but his $11MM cap hit has been the subject of almost every Maple Leafs-related contract discussion as the team is forced to make tough decisions about its depth and let some key pieces go. In effect, the Tavares example is one of the player being a great addition and player for his new team, but a big question as to whether the cap hit was worth it in the end.

A final example is Dallas Stars forward Jamie Benn, who signed an eight-year, $76MM contract extension to stay in Dallas during the summer of 2016. Signed three days ahead of his 27th birthday, the deal began in 2017-18, Benn’s age-28 season. Benn was, following a trend, every bit the player they hoped to extend the first year of the deal, putting up 79 points in 82 games, but hasn’t found that production since, finishing this season with a mere 46 points over 82 games. A relatively similar style of player to Tkachuk, Benn’s sharp regression at the age of 29 is a warning sign for any team looking to sign a long-term contract, but especially those seeking to ink a power-forward much like Benn. On the bright side for a Tkachuk comparison, even if the exact same trajectory was true for Tkachuk, an age-29 regression would only impact the final three years of his pact.

Wrapping up, it’s of course way too early to judge these contracts and in all honesty, it will be way too early to judge them halfway through (unless they’re bought out, of course). But considering the polarizing nature of all three, and the readily available examples of long-term, big-money deals, it is an interesting exercise to see what these could look like, not only compared to the league and its salary structure generally, but to one another, given that they will almost certainly be linked together for the remainder of their careers.

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