Atlantic Division Snapshots: Pastrnak, Sabres, Ryan
The Boston Bruins may be in the midst of a mediocre season but one bright spot, both today and for the future, has been the breakout performance of 20-year-old winger David Pastrnak. The Czech born forward has 18 goals in just 23 games to start the 2016-17 campaign, a figure which has already eclipsed his career-high by three. Pastrnak is playing out the final season of his ELC and presuming he’s able to continue to pile up the points, it’s certain he will cash in big this summer on a new contract, as Joe Haggerty of CSNNE writes.
Granted, it’s unlikely Pastrnak, who is also averaging better than a point-per-game, will be able to maintain his scoring pace throughout the season but his prolific start makes it easy to envision a 30-goal, 60-point campaign is a strong possibility. Haggerty speculates that if Pastrnak reaches those plateaus, he would be in line for a deal comparable to those awarded to Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon, among others in recent seasons. That means the value of a multiyear arrangement could reach $6MM or more annually on a long-term deal, depending on how many free agent years Boston is able to secure.
While the Bruins would certainly be more than happy to lock up the services of a talented youngster like Pastrnak through his prime seasons at that price, there is what Haggerty considers a “nightmare scenario,” that could come into play. If Pastrnak continues filling the net consistently and posts a platform season similar to that which Vladimir Tarasenko posted in 2014-15 – 37 goals and 73 points – his price tag could go well beyond the $6MM – $6.5MM mark. Tarasenko inked an eight-year, $60MM pact with the Blues on the heels of his breakout campaign two years ago and that could represent a target for Pastrnak if his able to attain that level of offensive production. With the salary cap likely to remain at or near the $73MM mark, and after locking up winger Brad Marchand to a lucrative new deal earlier this year, the Bruins will have to hope they can get Pastrnak extended at a rate which better fits their long-term salary cap situation.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:
- The Buffalo Sabres, led by sophomore Jack Eichel and buoyed by an owner willing to spend to improve his club, would certainly have to be considered a team on the rise in the Atlantic Division. While a postseason berth in 2016-17 might be a long shot at this point, the Sabres should begin to contend for the playoffs as soon as next season. However, as John Vogl of The Buffalo News notes, the situation today could be much different had the club done a better job of drafting in the early-to-mid-2000’s. Former first and second-round choices taken while Darcy Regier was the team’s GM listed by Vogl include: Marek Zagrapan, Philipp Gogulla, Dennis Persson and Drew Schiestel were all high draft picks chosen between 2005 and 2007 and none even played a single NHL game. Conversely, players the Sabres could have selected – Alec Martinez, James Neal and T.J. Oshie – have played key roles for contending teams. While it may be fun to play “what if,” with players the Sabres could have had, it’s also important to note that had the team experienced more success as a result of better drafting under Regier, Buffalo would likely not have franchise building blocks Rasmus Ristolainen, Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Alexander Nylander in the organization today.
- The return of Bobby Ryan and the play of several of Ottawa’s younger forwards has allowed first-year GM Pierre Dorion to resist temptation and stay the course with the team’s current roster, writes Ken Warren of the Ottawa Sun. It would have been understandable if Dorion had looked to make a deal to add some extra offense with Ryan out with a hand injury but the veteran scoring winger missed only three games. Dorion admitted he made some calls in the aftermath of the Ryan injury and while he will continue to look at different avenues to improve his club, there is no immediate pressure to make a trade.
Custance’s Latest: Projecting Those Most Affected By Flat Cap
The NHL’s Board of Governors (BOG) are in the midst of two days of meetings designed to cover several important topics before wrapping up today. Chief among them – and of particular interest to team executives as well as fans of the sport – is an early projection of the 2017-18 salary cap ceiling. Commissioner Gary Bettman advised the BOG to expect a modest increase, perhaps as much as $2MM, if any at all. Specifically, Bettman suggested the salary cap may remain flat. Naturally, that may present problems for several teams already close to the cap ceiling while pending free agents might find their respective markets depressed due to fewer clubs being in position to take on big salaries.
Craig Custance of ESPN.com wrote about a few teams and players who stand to be affected the most should the salary cap ceiling remain flat for the 2017-18 campaign. Among those he listed were Artemi Panarin, who will be a RFA coming off his ELC and in line for a massive raise. As we already know, Chicago is tight up against the cap and have already been forced to deal away key contributors due to a lack of cap space – Brandon Saad, Patrick Sharp and Teuvo Teravainen, for instance. They’ll likely have another tough decision to make given the situation.
Tampa Bay and their GM, Steve Yzerman, are two others Custance mentions as being impacted by a flat cap. The Lightning are set to watch Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin and Ondrej Palat become RFAs this summer and with just less than $60MM in cap commitments already on the books for 2017-18, it’s highly unlikely that Yzerman will be able to re-sign all three players.
In addition to those already brought up by Custance, there are several other clubs who will have a difficult time navigating the salary cap if the ceiling remains at or near the $73MM mark. Here are a few of those teams:
- Los Angeles Kings – The Kings already have just more than $60MM committed to the 2017-18 salary cap with forwards Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli slated to become RFAs next summer. Toffoli tallied career highs in goals (31) and points (58) in 2015-16 and while his scoring out put is down some this year, he could still easily command upwards of $4MM annually on a new contract. Pearson, meanwhile recorded 36 points last year and is on pace for about that same total this season. That could well push his salary north of $3MM next year.
- New York Rangers – The Blueshirts might be in a bigger bind than the Kings. They have about $63MM tied up in 2017-18 commitments with top-six center Mika Zibanejad and checking forward Jesper Fast, among several others, scheduled to become RFA’s. On top of that, the team will likely be in the market for a blue line upgrade and unless they can find a way to unload one of Dan Girardi or Marc Staal, the Rangers won’t have enough cap space to make an impact addition in free agency.
- Detroit Red Wings – The Red Wings are projected to have less than $5MM in cap space next season with Thomas Vanek hitting free agency. Additionally, five other players will be RFAs, including Tomas Tatar and Tomas Jurco. It’s hard to imagine the Wings being anything more than a fringe playoff contender next season given their current roster and with virtually no salary cap space available next season, as it’ll be tough for the team to improve through free agency.
Pacific Division Notes: Gudbranson, Mueller
The Vancouver Canucks finsihed 12 points behind Minnesota for the final playoff berth in the Western Conference in 2015-16 and with many of their best players – Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Alex Edler and Ryan Miller – all on the wrong side of 30, many thought it was time for the organization to embrace a full rebuild. Instead Vancouver inked veteran scoring forward Loui Eriksson in free agency and dealt young prospect Jared McCann along with a second-round pick to Florida for experienced defenseman Erik Gudbranson; moves that suggested the front office had every reason of contending in 2016-17. While the team sits just three points out of a playoff berth and with roughly two-thirds of the season remaining, it’s still more likely Vancouver will be a lottery team as opposed to a serious postseason contender. Now, with Gudbranson scheduled to reach restricted free agency next summer and likely in line for a marked raise over his $3.5MM cap hit, Vancouver will have to make a tough decision on what to do with the physical blue liner, as Jason Brough of Pro Hockey Talk writes.
As Brough explains, the Canucks have unexpectedly received strong play from rookie Troy Stecher, who has six points in 18 games, and already have Chris Tanev signed long term. Both are right-side defenders, as is Gudbranson, and a strong case can be made that they deserve top-four slots ahead of the former Florida Panther. In that case, Vancouver GM Jim Benning may not want to pay market value for Gudbranson, assuming he would be no more than a third-pair blue liner.
Benning has indicated that his newfound back end depth may allow him to trade a defenseman for a forward:
“We have depth on defense. We’ve rebuilt our defense. (Nikita) Tryamkin is 22 years old, (Troy) Stecher is 22 years old. (Alex) Edler at 30 is our oldest defenseman, so we have a young, good group back there. We have depth back there. So if we look to make a move, we’d have to use some of our depth on the blue line to add a forward.”
Gudbranson’s value is also difficult to project. The analytical community is not a fan, citing his substandard possession numbers – 48.7% career CF% – and his lack of offense. The towering blue liner has tallied just 48 career points in 336 NHL regular season games; good for a per-82-game-average of 11.7. With the league always looking for more offense and team’s prioritizing puck moving capabilities from its blue liners, there may not be as much of a trade market this summer for a player of Gudbranson’s ilk.
However, teams that value intangibles may be willing to overlook the advanced stats. But first, Vancouver has to decide whether they project Gudbranson to be a top-four defender and if not, are they going to be willing to extend the former third overall pick to a contract with an AAV in excess of $4MM or $5MM.
Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:
- Defenseman Mirco Mueller has been recalled by the San Jose Sharks, according to the official website of their AHL affiliate, the San Jose Barracuda. Curtis Pashelka of the San Jose Mercury News relays that the team’s head coach, Peter DeBoer, has not yet decided whether Mueller will be in the lineup this evening. However, Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area believes it is likely the former first-round pick will sit out tonight. Mueller has appeared in 50 NHL games with the Sharks, netting one goal and four points. He has yet to suit up this season for the Sharks. Mueller has six points in 17 games with the Barracuda.
Bettman Clarifies NHL Position On Olympics
NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman spoke to media today following a Board of Governor’s meeting in Palm Beach, Florida. The Commissioner touched on Olympic participation, escrow payments, and the salary cap, but emphasized that no vote on Olympic participation was taken.
Concerning NHL participation at the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, Bettman stated that the sentiment was increasing negative. Ever the lawyer, Bettman does not indicate whether the increasingly negative feelings towards participating represents a majority of owners, or only a (growing) minority. Olympic participation is a complex issue for NHL owners as they have to weigh increasing exposure to the sport at the expense of potentially losing one of their star players for the year.
Bettman also indicated that it is “ambiguous” whether skipping 2018 forecloses NHL participation in 2022. The 2022 Winter Games are in China, and the NHL would love to gain a foothold in the Chinese sports market. Participation in 2022 may tip the scales and give NHL owners a reason to send players to the 2018 Olympics if owners are sufficiently worried that they would not otherwise be able to do so.
Turning to the CBA and the salary cap, Bettman clarified that the NHL did not offer to send players to the 2018 Winter Olympics in exchange for the NHLPA to agree to a three-year CBA extension. Rather, CBA extension talk was tethered to a larger conversation about international play and included a potential 2020 World Cup. Bettman did address the NHLPA’s concern over high escrow payments, stating simply that lowering the cap would lower escrow payments. Relatedly, he also announced that while there is no official decision on any salary cap movement, he expects that it may rise by “a couple of million.“
Washington Capitals Recall Aaron Ness; Matt Niskanen Out
After getting hit face-first into the boards by Patrice Bergeron in yesterday’s game, Matt Niskanen is day-to-day with an upper-body injury and will be out for the Washington Capitals next matchup. To replace him, the team has called up Aaron Ness from the Hershey Bears Thursday afternoon.
Ness was originally acquired by the Capitals in 2015 after the Islanders let him hit free agency. The former captain of the Bridgeport Sound Tigers, Ness fit right in with the Bears last season, scoring 27 points during the regular season and being a huge part of their run to the Calder Cup finals. He also spent eight games with the Capitals in 2015-16, recording two assists and not looking out of place.
The former second-round (40th overall) pick of the Islanders is a smooth skating defenseman who can make an excellent outlet pass and rack up points. At 26 he’s not exactly young, but could still develop into at least a part-time NHL player. He’ll have big shoes to fill in Washington however, as Niskanen was logging over 22 minutes a night this season and skated on both special teams.
Following the Niskanen hit, Bergeron will receive no addition discipline from the league. The Capitals defender however isn’t travelling to Buffalo with the team and will be re-evaluated daily.
Buffalo Sabres Send Erik Burgdoerfer Back To AHL
Perhaps the Buffalo Sabres are finally getting healthy. Today they sent back Erik Burgdoerfer to the Rochester Americans after Josh Gorges and Dmitry Kulikov both took part in practice. While it’s not a guarantee that both will suit up tomorrow against the Washington Capitals, it is a good sign that they felt confident enough to send the 27-year old Burgdoerfer back down.
Burgdoerfer (or, Drew Stafford‘s long-lost twin depending on who you believe) made his NHL debut on Monday night for the Sabres, playing just over ten minutes. Tuesday’s game two didn’t bring much more, but for an undrafted defenseman who struggled for parts of five seasons in the ECHL before even getting a sniff at the AHL level, it was a dream come true. A big part of the Hershey Bears’ Calder-Cup finals run last season, Burgdoerfer will return to likely play most of the rest of this year with the Americans.
Gorges skating with the team is an unbelievably quick turnaround for a player who as of Saturday was still in a walking boot after suffering a non-displaced fracture of his foot and was originally expected to be out “weeks”. Kulikov’s return may be more important to the team however, as they had expected the 26-year old to be a big part of their blueline after acquiring him from Florida in the offseason. The former 14th-overall pick has played in just 12 games this season, recording no points.
Snapshots: Golden Knights, Team Czech Republic, All-Time Lists
The (probably) Golden Knights have hit another snag in their naming saga as the US Trademark office has denied their application due to the similarities to the College of Saint Rose Golden Knights. While this doesn’t seem like a real problem – in a statement given to Alex Prewitt of SI, the Vegas team says that these actions are “not at all unusual” and points out the many duplicate names across professional sports – it is just another public annoyance for a team that likely just wants to start playing hockey. With so much discussion over the name, logo and all the other minutia, the start of the 2017-18 season can’t come soon enough for George McPhee and his team.
- Corey Pronman of ESPN has a look at the preliminary roster for Team Czech Republic at this year’s World Junior Championship. As the rosters of many of the other teams came out over the past few days, the Czech list was conspicuously missing. Among the highlights, are Red Wings’ prospect Filip Hronek who is off to an unbelievable start with Saginaw, scoring 20 points in 24 games (as a defenseman) and Senators’ prospect Filip Chlapik who ranks in the QMJHL top five in both scoring (44 points) and penalty minutes (58 PIM in 26 games). The team will be dangerous with several high NHL draft picks on it and will likely be in the mix for a bronze medal at the tournament.
- The NHL Network published their list of the top-40 goaltenders of all-time and as Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times put it, the list is “uh, interesting, in a lot of ways.” The list has the regulars at the top – Martin Brodeur, Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy, in that order – but gets “interesting” a little further down as they list active goaltenders like Jonathan Quick (#16) and Marc-Andre Fleury (#21) quite high. While obviously these lists are subjective, it does lend credence to the idea that goaltending is better than it ever has been before and is a major reason for the suppressed goal totals. Comparing players across eras will always be difficult, but I can imagine our readers will have a few different takes on the order of this list. Share your thoughts in the comments.
Minor Moves: Witkowski, Kulak, Wotherspoon
Thursday night in the NHL and there are 10 games on the docket tonight. With so many teams playing, there are sure to be a handful of minor moves to fill out rosters and cover injuries. We’ll keep you up to date right here.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning are off to a solid 14-11-2 start to the season, but have been struggling lately, losing five of their last six games. With three days off to regroup since their game on Sunday, the team has called up Luke Witkowski to give them a bit of a defensive boost. The Syracuse Crunch captain, Witkowski has played six games for the Lightning this year and offers a big physical presence on the back end. The 26-year old was a sixth-round pick of the Lightning back in 2008 and was a standout at Western Michigan University before joining the Crunch.
- Going in the opposite direction, the Calgary Flames are on a four-game winning streak but will make a move to give some more icetime to a young player. Brett Kulak has been sent down to the AHL to play more, as he’d sat out the last five games. Kulak is a 22-year old defender that the Flames think can be an NHL player for a long time, and they’d like him to develop just a bit more before installing him on their blueline. To replace him, the team has called up Tyler Wotherspoon from the Stockton Heat. A former second-round pick, Wotherspoon is a bit more polished and can offer a more physical game. Though Wotherspoon only has 26 NHL games under his belt, this will be his fourth season spending time with the Flames. No word on whether he’ll get into the lineup right away, or just take Kulak’s spot in the press box.
- The Vancouver Canucks have recalled Andrey Pedan from the AHL. Pedan has played 18 games for the Utica Comets this season, scoring just three points while racking up thirty penalty minutes. The former third-round pick played thirteen games for the Canucks last season, but hasn’t been able to crack the NHL lineup this year.
- After not playing in last night’s game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, Teemu Pulkkinen has been sent down to the AHL. Just like his entire career to this point, Pulkkinen has been an outstanding scoring threat at the lower level but is unable to replicate it in the NHL. With 15 points in 16 games for the Iowa Wild, but just a single goal in 8 contests for Minnesota, the enigma persists.
- Brad Hunt, the AHL’s leading scorer, has been recalled by the St. Louis Blues. Amazingly, the defenseman has 29 points in 23 games playing for the Chicago Wolves. Always a big point producer at the lower level, Hunt has suited up in 21 NHL contests over the years.
Snapshots: Uncertainty in Dallas, Hanzal
The Dallas Stars are in a precarious position due to a number of factors writes Mike Heika. Besieged by injury, and seemingly in some form of hockey purgatory, Heika begins his column with prose:
The Stars are neither fish nor fowl.
They are not fast, yet they are not slow.
They are not young, yet they are not old.
They are not tough, yet they are not weak.
The Stars have been an enigma this season, expected to build on last year’s successes while bringing along a lot of the young, speedy talent that seemed ready to carry the team. Instead, Heika writes that the injuries to Mattias Janmark and Ales Hemsky altered the plan to include bigger, and albeit slower, forwards. Additionally, a more veteran blue line gave way for youth, which includes a learning curve as it acclimates to NHL talent.
Heika adds that with the uncertainty of the youth delivering, comes the unknowns associated with the 2017 offseason where a number of unrestricted free agents are set to be re-signed or hit the market. Those names include Patrick Sharp, Patrick Eaves, Jiri Hudler, Johnny Oduya, Adam Cracknell and Hemsky. Throw in what many analysts observe as a “shaky” goaltending tandem in Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen, and Heika indicates there’s yet another aspect of the team that may see change. Finally, head coach Lindy Ruff is in the final year of his contract.
What does it all mean? The Stars are a team in “no man’s land” according to Heika. Ruff put the team through a tough practice and indicated that the way through the inconsistency was to keep working. Heika is convinced it’s the one way that Dallas can determine what they’re truly made of.
In other Western Conference news:
- Montreal needs help up front and Arizona’s Martin Hanzal may be just the the man to solve their problems writes Navin Vaswani. The 29-year-old could be had for a young NHL ready forward and Vaswani believes Phillip Danault could do the trick. But Vaswani adds that Marc Bergevin isn’t forced to make a trade at all. Pierre LeBrun tweets that he isn’t sure if the Habs’ interest in Hanzal has spiked since the injuries to Alex Galchenyuk and David Desharnais. What he does indicate, is that regardless of what decision they make, injuries are part of the game and the Habs–whether they make a deal or not–must find a way to survive the injuries. LeBrun also adds that Arizona may still make a run at re-signing Hanzal.
Rangers Notes: Nash, Vesey, Puempel
The New York Rangers have been one of the biggest stories of the NHL this season, with their unbelievable start followed by some struggling of late that’s seen them relinquish the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. Still scoring at an incredible rate, the team is now facing some injuries up front to some of their biggest names according to Jim Cerny of The Hockey Writers.
Rick Nash has been taken for an MRI on his groin after leaving the game last night in the second period. Nash has 18 points through the first 27 games and is actually on a similar pace to his career-worst 36 point 2015-16. Groin injuries often linger, so if it’s anything significant it could spell trouble for the remainder of the 32-year old veteran’s season. Nash has one more year remaining after this one at $7.8MM for the Rangers as he nears the end of the eight-year, $62.4MM deal he signed in 2009.
- Jimmy Vesey, the summer’s most sought-after (or at least talked about) free agent is off to a solid start to his NHL career with 16 points in 27 games. The Harvard alum is dealing with an upper-body injury and is currently listed as day-to-day. After going through a considerable lull in November when he scored just three points in eleven games, Vesey got back on the board last night. Especially if Nash is to miss time, the Rangers will need the rookie to step up and handle more responsibility and ice time on the wing if they’re to get back on track.
- Another depth option was Matt Puempel, but after suffering a concussion last night he’s been listed as out indefinitely and been placed on injured reserve. Puempel was claimed by New York off waivers from the Ottawa Senators last month after he was held pointless through 13 games. While he’s fared just slightly better for the Rangers (one goal in six games), his relative youth and pedigree (drafted 24th overall in 2011) suggest he could still develop into a legitimate NHL winger. Last season, Puempel scored 30 points in 34 games at the AHL level, but never really got a chance to prove he could fit into the Senators’ long-term plans. All of a sudden the Rangers depth on the wing, once a strength of the team, is looking rather thin.