Custance’s Latest: Projecting Those Most Affected By Flat Cap
The NHL’s Board of Governors (BOG) are in the midst of two days of meetings designed to cover several important topics before wrapping up today. Chief among them – and of particular interest to team executives as well as fans of the sport – is an early projection of the 2017-18 salary cap ceiling. Commissioner Gary Bettman advised the BOG to expect a modest increase, perhaps as much as $2MM, if any at all. Specifically, Bettman suggested the salary cap may remain flat. Naturally, that may present problems for several teams already close to the cap ceiling while pending free agents might find their respective markets depressed due to fewer clubs being in position to take on big salaries.
Craig Custance of ESPN.com wrote about a few teams and players who stand to be affected the most should the salary cap ceiling remain flat for the 2017-18 campaign. Among those he listed were Artemi Panarin, who will be a RFA coming off his ELC and in line for a massive raise. As we already know, Chicago is tight up against the cap and have already been forced to deal away key contributors due to a lack of cap space – Brandon Saad, Patrick Sharp and Teuvo Teravainen, for instance. They’ll likely have another tough decision to make given the situation.
Tampa Bay and their GM, Steve Yzerman, are two others Custance mentions as being impacted by a flat cap. The Lightning are set to watch Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin and Ondrej Palat become RFAs this summer and with just less than $60MM in cap commitments already on the books for 2017-18, it’s highly unlikely that Yzerman will be able to re-sign all three players.
In addition to those already brought up by Custance, there are several other clubs who will have a difficult time navigating the salary cap if the ceiling remains at or near the $73MM mark. Here are a few of those teams:
- Los Angeles Kings – The Kings already have just more than $60MM committed to the 2017-18 salary cap with forwards Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli slated to become RFAs next summer. Toffoli tallied career highs in goals (31) and points (58) in 2015-16 and while his scoring out put is down some this year, he could still easily command upwards of $4MM annually on a new contract. Pearson, meanwhile recorded 36 points last year and is on pace for about that same total this season. That could well push his salary north of $3MM next year.
- New York Rangers – The Blueshirts might be in a bigger bind than the Kings. They have about $63MM tied up in 2017-18 commitments with top-six center Mika Zibanejad and checking forward Jesper Fast, among several others, scheduled to become RFA’s. On top of that, the team will likely be in the market for a blue line upgrade and unless they can find a way to unload one of Dan Girardi or Marc Staal, the Rangers won’t have enough cap space to make an impact addition in free agency.
- Detroit Red Wings – The Red Wings are projected to have less than $5MM in cap space next season with Thomas Vanek hitting free agency. Additionally, five other players will be RFAs, including Tomas Tatar and Tomas Jurco. It’s hard to imagine the Wings being anything more than a fringe playoff contender next season given their current roster and with virtually no salary cap space available next season, as it’ll be tough for the team to improve through free agency.
Snapshots: Tavares, Connor, Duclair
While his free agency is still over a year and a half away, that hasn’t stopped the early chatter when it comes to Islanders center John Tavares. Speaking with WFAN in New York, Tavares commented on whether or not he plans to be an Islander for life (transcription via Andy Graziano of IslandersPointBlank):
“Yes, I’d like to be, for sure. I try to not think about it a whole lot. Obviously, I’m getting closer to the end of this contract but I’ve always stated how much I love being in New York and being an Islander, how well people have treated me here and the organization as a whole. We’ve had something good building here the last couple of years and I’d love to see it through. When that time comes, I want something to work out where both sides are happy and I remain with this team. Really good times are ahead for the franchise and I want to keep contributing to that and doing my part.”
Tavares has been with the Isles since being drafted first overall back in 2009 and it’s believed that if he were to make it to free agency in the summer of 2018, he would have no shortage of suitors, similar to the interest in Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos this past offseason. It was reported last weekend that the team was looking to acquire a new winger for Tavares to replace Kyle Okposo (who signed with Buffalo this offseason) with the hope that doing so could help entice him to stay long-term.
Elsewhere around the league:
- The Jets announced that they have assigned left winger Kyle Connor to their AHL affiliate in Manitoba. Connor, the 17th overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, made Winnipeg’s roster out of training camp but has struggled so far this season with just a goal and three assists in 19 games. He had been a healthy scratch so this should be an opportunity to get plenty of playing time as the Moose play six times in the next 11 days.
- Coyotes winger Anthony Duclair is hoping to use his time as a healthy scratch earlier this week to start from scratch, writes Sarah McLellan of The Arizona Republic. Through 25 games, he has just four points which led to him being benched. One area of concern early on his lack of shots on goal as he’s averaging just over one per game. For someone counted on to be a top six scorer, that level of shot generation is well below average. Unfortunately for Duclair and the team, his play hasn’t really improved in his two games back in the lineup as he was sat down partway through last night’s game against Calgary.
Pacific Division Notes: Gudbranson, Mueller
The Vancouver Canucks finsihed 12 points behind Minnesota for the final playoff berth in the Western Conference in 2015-16 and with many of their best players – Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Alex Edler and Ryan Miller – all on the wrong side of 30, many thought it was time for the organization to embrace a full rebuild. Instead Vancouver inked veteran scoring forward Loui Eriksson in free agency and dealt young prospect Jared McCann along with a second-round pick to Florida for experienced defenseman Erik Gudbranson; moves that suggested the front office had every reason of contending in 2016-17. While the team sits just three points out of a playoff berth and with roughly two-thirds of the season remaining, it’s still more likely Vancouver will be a lottery team as opposed to a serious postseason contender. Now, with Gudbranson scheduled to reach restricted free agency next summer and likely in line for a marked raise over his $3.5MM cap hit, Vancouver will have to make a tough decision on what to do with the physical blue liner, as Jason Brough of Pro Hockey Talk writes.
As Brough explains, the Canucks have unexpectedly received strong play from rookie Troy Stecher, who has six points in 18 games, and already have Chris Tanev signed long term. Both are right-side defenders, as is Gudbranson, and a strong case can be made that they deserve top-four slots ahead of the former Florida Panther. In that case, Vancouver GM Jim Benning may not want to pay market value for Gudbranson, assuming he would be no more than a third-pair blue liner.
Benning has indicated that his newfound back end depth may allow him to trade a defenseman for a forward:
“We have depth on defense. We’ve rebuilt our defense. (Nikita) Tryamkin is 22 years old, (Troy) Stecher is 22 years old. (Alex) Edler at 30 is our oldest defenseman, so we have a young, good group back there. We have depth back there. So if we look to make a move, we’d have to use some of our depth on the blue line to add a forward.”
Gudbranson’s value is also difficult to project. The analytical community is not a fan, citing his substandard possession numbers – 48.7% career CF% – and his lack of offense. The towering blue liner has tallied just 48 career points in 336 NHL regular season games; good for a per-82-game-average of 11.7. With the league always looking for more offense and team’s prioritizing puck moving capabilities from its blue liners, there may not be as much of a trade market this summer for a player of Gudbranson’s ilk.
However, teams that value intangibles may be willing to overlook the advanced stats. But first, Vancouver has to decide whether they project Gudbranson to be a top-four defender and if not, are they going to be willing to extend the former third overall pick to a contract with an AAV in excess of $4MM or $5MM.
Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:
- Defenseman Mirco Mueller has been recalled by the San Jose Sharks, according to the official website of their AHL affiliate, the San Jose Barracuda. Curtis Pashelka of the San Jose Mercury News relays that the team’s head coach, Peter DeBoer, has not yet decided whether Mueller will be in the lineup this evening. However, Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area believes it is likely the former first-round pick will sit out tonight. Mueller has appeared in 50 NHL games with the Sharks, netting one goal and four points. He has yet to suit up this season for the Sharks. Mueller has six points in 17 games with the Barracuda.
Leafs Trade Peter Holland To Arizona
3:10pm: Sarah McLellan of AZ Central Sports reports via Twitter that the Coyotes will send a sixth-round choice to Toronto should the team re-sign Holland or trade the six-year veteran pivot. Essentially this serves as a four month tryout with Holland given the chance to prove to Coyotes management he can be a useful contributor at the NHL level. Should the team decide to go in a different direction and assuming they are unable to move trade him, the Coyotes apparently will be out nothing but a minimal prorated payroll commitment, an amount around $800K.
1:27pm: The Maple Leafs have cleared up their situation with Peter Holland as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that they are dealing him to Arizona in exchange for a conditional draft pick. Craig Morgan of AZ Sports confirmed (Twitter link) the trade with Coyotes GM John Chayka although the draft pick details are still unknown.
Holland has been away from the team since being told to stay home from Toronto’s road trip in late November. He has played in just eight games so far this season, recording one assist while averaging 10:43 per game.
The 25 year old has been on the outs with the Leafs dating back to the offseason, where they placed him on waivers in advance of his salary arbitration hearing. He wound up clearing and settled shortly thereafter on a one year, $1.3MM contract. He will be a restricted free agent once again this offseason.
Holland was a first round pick of the Ducks (15th overall) back in 2009 but never really made a mark in Anaheim, playing in just 29 games over two seasons with the team before being dealt to Toronto. In his career, he has played in 203 NHL games between Anaheim and the Maple Leafs, scoring 30 goals while adding 40 assists.
Holland should fill a bottom six role with the Coyotes and will likely take the place of Brad Richardson, who is out long-term with a broken tibia and fibula in his leg.
[Related: Coyotes Depth Chart]
Injury Updates: Gorges, Kulikov, Hudler, Wild
Despite being pegged to miss several weeks due to a non-displaced fracture in his foot on Sunday, Sabres defenseman Josh Gorges will suit up for Buffalo tonight, reports Amy Moritz of the Buffalo News. As a result, the 32 year old will only have missed three games as a result of the fracture. The stay-at-home blueliner has one assist through 23 games so far this season while averaging 19:27 of ice time per game, his lowest since 2007-08 when he played in Montreal.
That wasn’t the only good news the Sabres received on the injury front as Dmitry Kulikov, who has missed the last 14 games with a back injury, will also return to the lineup. The 26 year old was one of Buffalo’s key offseason acquisitions after being acquired from Florida at the draft. Although he was off to a slow start (pointless in 12 games), he’ll instantly give their top four a big boost as someone that can log heavy minutes.
As a result of these two being activated, Moritz notes that Brendan Guhle will return to his junior team (Prince George of the WHL) after being summoned as an emergency recall. The 19 year old played in three games and certainly held his own, logging over 16 minutes of ice time per night while drawing praise from head coach Dan Bylsma:
“I think there’s significant evidence he showed he could play at this level. At the same time he’s 19-year-old kid. You know there’s going to be some ups and downs in his game over the course of his NHL career but he did a pretty remarkable job stepping into a tough situation, a tough spot and showed he could play and contribute.”
[Related: Sabres Depth Chart]
Other injury notes from around the league:
- The Stars announced that they have activated right winger Jiri Hudler off IR. He has missed all but four games this season as a result of a lingering illness. To make room for him on the roster, the team has assigned centre Jason Dickinson to their AHL affiliate in Texas. Mark Stepneski of Stars Inside Edge also adds via Twitter that defenseman Julius Honka has been placed on IR retroactive to December 6th with an upper body injury.
- Minnesota defenseman Christian Folin has been cleared to play by team doctors, Michael Russo of the Minnesota Star Tribune notes. He’s expected to take the warmup for tonight’s game against Edmonton; a decision on his playing status will be made at that time. Folin has played in 19 games for the Wild this season, largely on the third pairing.
- From that same column, Russo also reports that Zac Dalpe is also skating with the team. He underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in early November and has played in just nine games so far this season, recording three points. There remains no timetable for his return to the lineup but this is certainly a step in the right direction for Dalpe.
Atlantic Notes: Maple Leafs, Pacioretty, Panthers
Although Toronto’s play on the ice has been an improvement over last season, it hasn’t resulted in any sort of improvement when it comes to the standings. They sit in last place in the Eastern Conference and as a result, some are beginning to wonder if the Leafs should think of themselves as sellers this season. As GM Lou Lamoriello told reporters, including Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star, it’s too early to tell which way the team will be leaning on the trade market:
“To think about that, it’s too far away to even have in your mindset. That’s a far-fetched thing at this point. Right now, we’re building. Determining who the players are that will be part of the future, and who are buying into what it takes to have the success you want to have.”
The Leafs are set to enter a tough stretch where they will play five games in eight nights which could potentially influence their direction. A few victories will keep them close to the final Wild Card spot – they’re currently eight points out of that position currently – but if they lose most of their games, the gap could become too big to close. Needless to say, this next week could go a long way towards influencing the remainder of their season.
Other notes from the Atlantic:
- Canadiens left winger Max Pacioretty played through most of November with a fracture in his foot, he told Sportsnet’s Eric Engels. Pacioretty, who has scored 30 or more goals in each of the last three seasons, had just three tallies last month and struggled considerably. He added that the fracture is now completely healed which should come as great news to Montreal, who have been hit hard by the injury bug lately with centres Alex Galchenyuk and David Desharnais as well as defensemen Greg Pateryn all out until late January at the earliest.
- The removal of Gerard Gallant as Florida’s head coach has yet to pay off as the team has lost four straight games. As Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press writes, there is a small silver lining in that last year’s Panthers team was only two points ahead of where this edition is through 28 games and that squad went on to win the division. Interim coach Tom Rowe admitted they’re using last year’s success as a motivator to try to get the team out of its funk but so far, that has yet to come to fruition. They won’t be getting help from the infirmary soon either as left winger Jonathan Huberdeau remains several weeks away from returning from his Achilles injury.
Ryan Garbutt Clears Waivers
December 9: Garbutt has cleared waivers, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link).
December 8: According to Pierre LeBrun of ESPN, the Anaheim Ducks have decided to put forward Ryan Garbutt on waivers Thursday morning. This likely means the return of Rickard Rakell to the Ducks lineup is imminent, after missing the last few games with an upper-body injury. The team had brought up Stefan Noesen recently to fill in, but since the 23-year old is also waivers-eligible, the team doesn’t want to expose him by sending him back down.
Garbutt, signed to a three-year, $5.4MM deal in 2014 and is owed $2MM of actual salary this season (though, as Ducks8 points out down below, the Dallas Stars retained half of that hit) due to the back-loaded nature of the deal. Though the price tag is reduced, it still seems unlikely that he’ll be claimed as the 31-year old has not been able to repeat the 32 point season that earned him the deal. With just three points in 27 games this season, he is ticketed for the AHL’s San Diego Gulls for at least the immediate future.
Islanders Sign Cal Clutterbuck To Five Year Extension
The New York Islanders announced that they have signed right winger Cal Clutterbuck to a five year extension that runs through the 2021-22 season. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that the deal will carry a cap hit of $3.5MM. That represents a $750K raise on his current $2.75MM cap hit but matches the salary he’s earning this season.
Clutterbuck is in his fourth season with New York after being acquired from Minnesota for Nino Niederreiter back in June of 2013. He was named an alternate captain for the team at the beginning of the season.
This year, the 29 year old has played in 25 games, scoring twice while adding seven assists. He has also seen his role increase; after spending most of his time as a fourth liner in previous years, he has spent more time in the middle six this season.
[Related: Islanders Depth Chart]
In his career, Clutterbuck has played in 597 games between the Wild and Islanders, picking up 98 goals, 79 assists, and 469 penalty minutes.
With the deal, the Islanders have committed over $66MM in payroll to the 2017-18 season, per CapFriendly. Remaining among their free agents next offseason are defenseman Calvin de Haan (RFA), defenseman Dennis Seidenberg (UFA), and goaltender Thomas Greiss (UFA).
The breakdown of the contract is as follows per CapFriendly:
2017-18: $5MM
2018-19: $4MM
2019-20: $3.5MM
2020-21: $2.5MM
2021-22: $2.5MM
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
West Notes: Kings, Stars Goaltending, Shaw
One of the bigger concerns for the Kings currently is a lack of secondary scoring, notes Elliott Teaford of the LA Daily News. Through 26 games, they have just two players with more than five goals in Jeff Carter and Tanner Pearson.
Over the summer, the team lost Milan Lucic, Kris Versteeg, and Vincent Lecavalier and haven’t really had success replacing them. It was hoped that Teddy Purcell would help at least cover the loss of one of Versteeg or Lecavalier but after collecting just two assists in 12 games, he cleared waivers and has been sent to the minors.
With Los Angeles currently in LTIR as a result of the injury to goaltender Jonathan Quick, they don’t have the financial flexibility to bring another scorer in so they will have to count on players like Anze Kopitar (two goals) and Tyler Toffoli (five goals) to pick up the slack and get back towards the level of production that they’ve provided in recent years.
[Related: Kings Depth Chart]
More from the West:
- The Stars are into their second year with Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi as their goaltending tandem, the most expensive in the league. In a reader mailbag, Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News suggests that it might be in their best interest to move one of them instead of going with the ‘play the hot hand’ strategy that they are running. He also feels that if they were to move one, they’d be better to deal Lehtonen even though he may be the more talented of the two. However, he carries the higher cap hit ($5.9MM with a no-move clause through 2017-18 vs $4.5MM through 2017-18 for Niemi) and given the other goaltenders that are believed to be available, finding a desirable trade may be easier said than done.
- Ducks right winger Logan Shaw admitted to Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register that he was happy to be traded from the Panthers last month. Shaw failed to crack Florida’s lineup and cleared waivers at the beginning of the season but was flipped to Anaheim in a swap of AHL veterans. Since being recalled on the 24th, he has played in all seven games with the Ducks, scoring once. He has made a positive impression on head coach Randy Carlyle, who called Shaw “one of our brighter spots over the last little while”. With the team placing Ryan Garbutt on waivers yesterday, it appears Shaw will be sticking around for a little while yet.
Red Wings Notes: Howard, Athanasiou, Marchenko, Daniels
Jimmy Howard and Andreas Athanasiou are ready to come back for the Red Wings writes Dana Wakiji. Detroit has been plagued by injury since the onset of the season, and the return of two key players should boost a team starving for more points as they sit outside the final wildcard spot. Howard, Athanasiou, and Alexey Marchenko all returned to full practice but only the latter might be held out of Friday’s game. Getting Athanasiou back, who has a knack for disrupting opposing teams because of his blazing speed, will be a major asset according to bench boss Jeff Blashill:
“He certainly adds an element of speed that’s obviously important in the league, and he can self-create,” Wings coach Jeff Blashill said. “It’s hard to self-create in this league, and he’s one of the guys that can do it. So he brings another guy in our lineup that can do a good job. That said, I think the guys that have been in the lineup have done a good job as well. When Andreas comes back he needs to make sure he’s ready to be an impact player.”
Howard has been a savior in the net for the Wings before he succumbed to a minor groin injury according to the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. St. James adds that Howard is relieved it’s only a two week layoff whereas a groin injury in the past had a longer duration–and saw a dip in his play. Marchenko is close, and if he’s not ready by Friday’s game, he will certainly be slotted into Sunday’s contest. The defenseman has been out with a shoulder injury since November 20.
In other Red Wings news:
- Red Wings television play-by-play announcer Ken Daniels’ son Jamie passed away suddenly at the age of 23 Thursday. The Red Wings released a brief statement after learning of the tragic news:
“Both the Red Wings organization and Fox Sports Detroit would like to offer their heartfelt condolences to the Daniels family during this most difficult time.”