PHR Playoff Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our look with the Atlantic Division matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning.
In what may be the most hotly anticipated series of the First Round, two teams with lofty expectations will clash for the second straight year. Both teams have seen significant roster turnover since last year’s battle, with many new depth pieces looking to make impacts for Toronto, while Tampa returns without some members of the ancillary core that has gotten them to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.
The series presents a major test for both teams. They both enter the playoffs on wildly different trajectories based on the last few weeks of their regular season play — and those trajectories both contrast with the auras surrounding their recent playoff performance.
The potential reward for winning this war of attrition? The record-slaying Boston Bruins.
Regular Season Performance
Toronto: 50-21-11, 111 points, +57 goal differential
Tampa: 46-30-6, 98 points, +29 goal differential
Head-To-Head
December 3, 2022: Toronto 3, Tampa Bay 4 (OT)
December 20, 2022: Tampa Bay 1, Toronto 4
April 11, 2023: Toronto 4, Tampa Bay 3
Toronto takes the season series 2-0-1
Team Storylines
Anything else said about the immense pressure the Maple Leafs face to win a series would be a retread. How they avoid the mistakes of years past, though, combined with how they’ve addressed perceived weaknesses this season, is worth a deeper look.
In last season’s loss to the Lightning, Tampa held Toronto to four goals in Games 6 and 7. In 2021, Montreal held the Maple Leafs to three goals in the final two games. In the 2020 Qualifying Round against the Columbus Blue Jackets, they were shut out in the deciding Game 5. Offense evaporating at crucial times has kept the Maple Leafs from deep playoff runs.
The bulk of the pressure will again rest on the core four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander to keep up their production as the series progresses. But Toronto’s acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly before the trade deadline should not be overlooked as a potential antidote to their offensive woes. He’s seemingly recaptured some offensive confidence despite decreased ice time, registering 11 points in 13 games since the trade and six points in five games since returning from a hand injury that kept him out for most of March. Combined with his winning pedigree and playoff experience, he’s one of two main x-factors for Toronto in this matchup.
The other is goaltending — and the potential for a surprise Game 1 starter. While Ilya Samsonov is still expected to start after his breakout campaign, he missed the last two games with minor injuries and, in his place, rookie Joseph Woll has posted spectacular numbers in limited action (6-1-0, .932 SV%, 2.16 GAA). The chances of the 24-year-old seeing playoff action are greater than zero, especially given Samsonov’s brief and shaky playoff history with the Washington Capitals. If Matt Murray clears concussion protocol and can provide an experienced relief option, that’s a bonus.
For Tampa Bay, this series represents the start of what the team hopes will be another deep playoff run, one that results in the franchise’s third Stanley Cup championship in four years. The main factor Tampa has going for them? They were in this exact position one year ago, and found a way to fend off Toronto in a grueling series. They created a blueprint for themselves to follow, just as they’ve done for the numerous teams they’ve eliminated over the past three seasons. That year-to-year playoff consistency is what makes them such a daunting first-round opponent despite their relatively inconsistent regular season.
Just like it is for Toronto, a major storyline for the Lightning is goaltending, only for different reasons. For Toronto, the question is whether Samsonov’s regular season success will translate to the playoffs, where he has been shaky in the past. For Tampa, the main question will be if the team will be able to once again count on playoff brilliance from Andrei Vasilevskiy after a regular season that was, while strong, not the dominant year many might have expected from him. The Maple Leafs have a lethal set of forwards and impressive depth.
If Vasilevskiy can make scoring goals feel impossible in the most important moments — just as Carey Price did for the Canadiens in 2021 — then Tampa will once again triumph. But if he can’t, and he proves to be more the mortal, beatable goalie he was at times this regular season than the impenetrable brick wall he was in the Lightning’s two Stanley Cup runs, then the Maple Leafs could finally get the playoff series win they’ve been waiting for.
Prediction
As most playoff series typically do, this battle is likely to come down to goaltending. On paper, Vasilevskiy is easily the more accomplished and reliable goalie. And if he shuts down Toronto’s scorers and Tampa once again proves victorious, that wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
But Toronto came close last year. They drew blood and nearly knocked out the eventual Prince of Wales winners, pushing them to the brink in a way no other Eastern Conference team could. Now, they’ve added a Conn Smythe Trophy winner, revamped their defense, added experienced depth forwards, and have gotten some of the best goaltending they’ve seen since Frederik Andersen‘s departure.
This series could truly go either way, but at least at this moment, this year feels different. The prediction: Maple Leafs win in six games.
Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Samuel Richard To ATO
The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed another amateur goaltender to serve as backup tonight, the fourth-straight game that they’ve had only one NHL-level goalie on the ice. Samuel Richard will be tonight’s amateur tryout agreement, backing up Joseph Woll against the New York Rangers.
Richard, 22, played for the University of New Brunswick this season after a three-year career in the QMJHL with the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies. He was outstanding at the USports level, posting an 18-4 record, 1.59 goals-against average, .933 save percentage.
The UNB Reds won the national championship last month, with Richard posting a shutout in the final game.
Still, that’s certainly not the same path most NHL backups take, and the continued use of amateur goaltenders at the end of this season has to be a cause for concern among the league offices.
Luckily, in this case, the game is effectively meaningless. The Maple Leafs and Rangers are locked into their playoff positions and will try to get out of tonight’s game healthy.
Ilya Samsonov, the team’s regular starter, will take another game off as he deals with some minor injuries and prepares for the playoffs.
Maple Leafs Emergency Recall Joseph Woll
- In the last 48 hours, the Toronto Maple Leafs have had one of the most interesting goaltending carousels of all season. After recently signing both Jett Alexander and Nick Chenard for one game each to be backup goaltender, Chris Johnston of TSN reported that two new unknown goalies were seen at Toronto’s practice this morning. Later on, Jeff Marek of Sportsnet mentioned that one of the mystery goaltenders may be Windsor Spitfires product Matt Onuska. Fortunately for the Maple Leafs, the dust has completely settled, as Jonas Siegel from The Athletic reports that Toronto has been able to emergency recall goaltender Joseph Woll, and he is on the active roster for tonight’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
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Erik Gustafsson Out With Upper-Body Injury
- Erik Gustafsson was prepared to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight but left during warmup and was ruled out of the game. The Maple Leafs released a statement saying Gustafsson would not play due to an upper-body injury. Luke Schenn took his place in the lineup on short notice. Gustafsson has played nine games with the Maple Leafs since being acquired at the trade deadline, and has four points, including a three point night against the Montreal Canadiens in his last outing.
Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Nick Chenard
- Fresh off the signing of Jett Alexander to an amateur tryout agreement, the Toronto Maple Leafs have signed Nick Chenard from the Owen Sound Attack to an amateur tryout agreement, and he will be a backup tonight for the Maple Leafs. This season, Chenard played in 35 games for the Attack, accruing a record of 14-16-2, carrying a GAA of 3.96 and a SV% of .873.
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Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Matthew Knies
The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed prospect forward Matthew Knies to an entry-level contract, according to TSN’s Darren Dreger. Per his report, Toronto will register his contract today. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Knies’ contract will carry a $925k average annual value. CapFriendly later confirmed Friedman’s report, adding that the contract will pay Knies $832,500 in base salary, $92,500 in signing bonuses, and $80,000 in minors salary each season of the three-year deal. He will be a restricted free agent in 2025.
The Maple Leafs have kept an open contract slot within their 50-man limit for Knies to join the team at the conclusion of his season with Minnesota, and after the Gophers’ heartbreaking overtime loss in the National Championship game, the opportunity to put pen to paper finally arose.
Knies, 20, is a six-foot-three power forward who was selected 57th overall at the 2021 NHL draft. He’s scored at or above a point-per-game rate in both of his seasons at Minnesota, and this year he was one-third of one of hockey’s most promising lines alongside 2022 first-rounders Logan Cooley and Jimmy Snuggerud.
A Hobey Baker Award finalist, Knies’ signing with Toronto gives him the opportunity to make his NHL debut and potentially figure into head coach Sheldon Keefe’s lineup equation for the team’s high-stakes first-round playoff series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
While it’s unknown whether the Maple Leafs would be comfortable inserting a rookie with only a few NHL games under his belt into their lineup for such an important series, Knies is the sort of talented, versatile player who could quickly make their decision very easy.
Before that point comes, though, Knies will have to get his feet wet in the NHL. He reportedly flew to Minnesota with the rest of the Minnesota roster after last night’s game, but according to ESPN’s John Buccigross will be flying to Florida to join the Maple Leafs, who play Florida tomorrow and Tampa Bay on Tuesday.
The Maple Leafs already boast an embarrassment of riches in their forward corps, with a group of attackers that collectively can stand among the league’s deepest and most talented. This addition of Knies only adds to that impressive group, and if Knies lives up to the considerable hype could be a factor that finally brings Toronto to their long-awaited playoff series victory.
Maple Leafs Sign Jett Alexander
With regular goaltender Matt Murray out of their game tonight, the Toronto Maple Leafs have signed goaltender Jett Alexander to an amateur tryout contract. With this contract in place, Alexander will be the backup to regular starting goaltender Ilya Samsonov tonight.
Alexander has spent the last three seasons playing for the University of Toronto in the USports, making the playoffs twice, but ultimately failing to win the David Johnston University Cup. Interestingly enough, due to an injury to then starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper last season, the Colorado Avalanche brought in Alexander to be an emergency backup goaltender for one game.
This season, Alexander received the most playing time he’s been given throughout his career at Toronto, playing in a total of 22 games. In those starts, the goaltender has managed a record of 12-7-2, with a SV% of .927 and a GAA of 2.21.
In a salary cap crunch leading up to the playoffs, the Maple Leafs have executed an interesting move to keep themselves under salary cap compliance. Usually, with Murray out, the Maple Leafs would have called up goalie Joseph Woll, but with only $28K in cap space available, the team needed to make room to eventually sign University of Minnesota forward Matthew Knies once his season is finished.
Jarnkrok Out Tonight, Murray Uncertain To Be Available
The Maple Leafs will be without winger Calle Jarnkrok tonight as he is listed as day-to-day with a minor injury, relays Sports Illustrated’s David Alter (Twitter link). The 31-year-old has done well in his first season in Toronto, notching career highs in goals (19) and points (37). It’s unknown if he’ll get a chance to add to those numbers before the playoffs begin. Wayne Simmonds will take his place in the lineup after being recalled last night.
Meanwhile, while the plan is for Matt Murray to serve as the backup tonight, Alter relays that head coach Sheldon Keefe is unsure if he’ll be able to do so. Murray didn’t participate in the morning skate and with the Maple Leafs lacking the cap space for another recall, they might have to dress an emergency backup if Murray is unable to suit up.
Toronto Maple Leafs Recall Wayne Simmonds, Reassign Joseph Woll
The Toronto Maple Leafs announced a couple of roster moves this evening, according to David Alter of SI.com. The team has called up veteran winger Wayne Simmonds, a day after sending him down to the Toronto Marlies of the AHL. The team has also sent down goaltender Joseph Woll following his recall just three days ago.
Simmonds is a 34-year-old forward who has technically split this season between the Maple Leafs and Marlies, though he has never suited up for the Marlies this season. He has often been the odd forward out of the lineup and even sent down to make roster room throughout the season, or salary cap space when Ryan O’Reilly was activated yesterday. However, though he has spent time on the AHL roster, he has not actually played in the minors this season. Simmonds has played 17 games with the Maple Leafs, scoring two points while adding a veteran, gritty presence to the lineup.
Woll being sent down is more interesting. He was called up earlier this week when Matt Murray was injured and though Murray’s status was not updated, it was feared he would be out of the lineup long term. If Murray is out long term, the team would need a second goaltender on the roster, which is where Woll stepped in. However, with Woll being returned to the Marlies, it could pave the way for Murray’s return to the lineup. Woll has now played five games with the Maple Leafs this season, winning four of them and posting a 2.02 GAA and a .932 SV% in those contests.
Ryan O’Reilly Activated From Long-Term Injured Reserve
The Toronto Maple Leafs have activated forward Ryan O’Reilly off of long-term injured reserve, as first tweeted by CapFriendly and then confirmed by Toronto’s official lineup announcement. In order to create the necessary cap space for the move, they have assigned forwards Nick Abruzzese and Wayne Simmonds to their AHL affiliate, the Toronto Marlies.
O’Reilly, 32, hasn’t played in a little over a month due to a finger injury. He last played in the Maple Leafs’ 4-1 loss to the Vancouver Canucks on March 4th, a contest that marked his fifth-straight without a point. It’s been an up-and-down season for the former Blues captain, as he has scored just 24 points in 48 games.
O’Reilly’s inconsistent offensive production shouldn’t be referenced to understate the potential impact he can have on the Maple Leafs, though, as the 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy winner has the potential to be a game-changer for Toronto.
Now on a roster starved for playoff success, O’Reilly brings the type of Stanley Cup experience the squad has in the past been perceived as lacking.
Moreover, O’Reilly’s hat-trick performance on February 21st against the Buffalo Sabres shows that there’s still some gas left in O’Reilly’s offensive tank, and the versatility he brings to the Maple Leafs’ lineup gives head coach Sheldon Keefe a wide variety of options for how to deploy his forwards.
O’Reilly could be used as a third-line center, giving the Maple Leafs possibly the best set of four centers in the entire NHL. He could also be played on a top-six line, allowing someone like John Tavares to shift to the wing and focus more wholly on creating offense, leaving the defensive responsibilities assigned to the center to O’Reilly.
O’Reilly is playing tonight on the Maple Leafs’ third line between Alexander Kerfoot and Noel Acciari. That trio, combined with a fourth line of Zach Aston-Reese, David Kampf, and Sam Lafferty gives Toronto a bottom-six forward group that is arguably far better equipped to handle the rigors of playoff hockey than the bottom-six groups they have brought into past first-rounds.
It’s definitely true that for the Maple Leafs to finally earn the playoff success they’ve craved over the past half-decade, their stars will need to lead the way. If they want to be the first Eastern Conference team to eliminate the Tampa Bay Lightning in this decade, they’ll need to do it on the back of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Tavares, and William Nylander.
Getting a player like O’Reilly back to full health and integrated into their lineup with a few games to spare before that all-important playoff series is a significant, positive development for Toronto. How quickly he can get back to full speed will be one of the chief storylines to monitor during tonight’s game against the Boston Bruins.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images