NHL Notes: RFA Defensemen
As we mentioned earlier this week, there are several very talented Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) who have yet to sign contracts for next season. Of the 24 RFA defensemen who played in the NHL last season, 15 of them averaged more than 15 minutes per game (minimum 25 GP). Despite the high value of young capable defensemen (see Larsson, Adam), it is the their teams who appear to have the upper hand in negotiations.
Let’s take a look at the top five unsigned defensemen:
1. Hampus Lindholm – Anaheim Ducks – The Ducks number one defenseman, Lindholm averaged 22:00 minutes per night last season with superior possession numbers. His 28 points were 54th among defensemen, but Lindholm is still a bona fide top-pairing option. Lindholm is likely looking for a long-term contract in the $5-6MM range, similar to the Morgan Rielly ($5MM, Seth Jones ($5.4MM), and Nick Leddy ($5.5MM). The Ducks would probably prefer something lower, in the Travis Hamonic ($3.86MM), Oscar Klefbom ($4.17MM), and Justin Faulk ($4.83MM) range. Anaheim is a budget team, and is already only $8.4MM away from the cap ceiling with Lindholm and Rickard Rakell still to sign. Lindholm is not eligible for arbitration, and an offer sheet seems unlikely given the current NHL climate.
2. Tyson Barrie – Colorado Avalanche – Barrie seems to be constantly featured in trade rumors, mainly due to his high-end offensive ability (49 points last season) and coach Patrick Roy’s apparent lack of confidence in him. It doesn’t help that the Avalanche have just $8.3MM in cap space before Barrie and Mikhail Grigorenko‘s arbitration hearings in late July. Barrie and his agent don’t need to look any further than teammate Eric Johnson‘s $6MM salary for a starting point; Barrie outscored Johnson by 22 points in similar time-on-ice.
3. Rasmus Ristolainen – Buffalo Sabres – Ristolainen lead the Sabres in ice-time by just under 500 minutes. He was also fourth in team scoring with 41 points. He’s also extremely big at 6’4, 207 lbs and mobile. Ristolainen is already the Sabres best defenseman, and he’ll only be 22 in October. The Sabres will look to sign him long-term somewhere in the Faulk to Rielly range. The Sabres have approximately $11MM in cap space and still need to lock up Marcus Foligno and Zemgus Girgensons.
4. Jacob Trouba – Winnipeg Jets – Trouba is in an interesting situation in Winnipeg: he’s considered a future top-pairing player, and is big, mobile, and right-handed. However, he’s blocked from playing top-four minutes by fellow right-handers Dustin Byfulgien and Tyler Myers. Trouba has played the left side before, but like most players performs better on his natural side. There seems to be two options for Trouba; he can sign a bridge-deal and earn a big payday in two seasons when Mark Stuart and Toby Enstrom are free agents, or he can holdout for the big payday now. There was some talk last month about the Bruins looking at Trouba as an offer sheet candidate, but that seems to have passed. He’s not eligible for arbitration, so the ball is in Winnipeg’s court.
5. Danny DeKeyser – Detroit Red Wings – With Niklas Kronwall turning 35 last season, DeKeyser appears poised to be the next big man on the Red Wings blueline. The two defensemen lead the team in ice time, and DeKeyser will likely pass Krowall in that regard next season. The 25-year-old DeKeyser put up just 20 points last season, however Mike Green was the only defenseman who scored more. DeKeyser is scheduled for arbitration on July 28, but could very likely come to a longer agreement with the Red Wings before then.
Snapshots: Burrows, Francis, Arbitration
When the 2015-16 season came to a close, it seemed a sure bet that the Vancouver Canucks were going to buy out the final year of Alex Burrows‘ four-year, $18MM contract. He’d seen his play dwindle, and GM Jim Benning was clear that he wanted to move in a younger direction, all but pointing the finger at the 35-year old. But, as the first buyout window came and went, it was Chris Higgins and not Burrows that found his contract voided.
Now, Burrows says that he’s ready for the new season and is challenging himself to be better. In talking to Ben Kuzma of The Province, Burrows provided great insight into his preparation and mindset heading into this season, including making it clear that he will relish a leadership and mentor opportunity with the younger players this season.
He’s even open to being a healthy scratch on occasion: “There are so many worse things in life than being a healthy scratch or they put a young guy in the lineup ahead of you. My wife is healthy and my kids are healthy and it puts things in perspective.” Here’s some more from around the league:
- After years of floundering without a clear direction, Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News opines that the Carolina Hurricanes are finally doing a re-build the right way. With a full stable of young defensemen they’ve built through the draft, the team now has the option of dealing from a position of depth – one that is scarce throughout the league. Kennedy mentions the recent rumors of David Krejci from Boston as a possible target for one of their young blueliners.
- In hiring Brad Shaw as an assistant coach last month, the Columbus Blue Jackets added an experienced name that can help build and develop their defense like he did in St. Louis. When asked by Rob Mixer of NHL.com why he chose Columbus, Shaw made it clear that players like the recently extended Seth Jones, and second overall pick Ryan Murray were a key factor: “The young defensemen here played a big part in my decision, no doubt about it. The biggest challenge in working with young players is trying to pin down and have a clear picture of what the final product will look like when they’re at their best in the NHL. Every guy is different.”
- After Philadelphia signed Jordan Weal earlier today, three of the twenty-five players who are headed to arbitration (through their own filing or the team’s) have now come to terms before their hearings, as General Fanager tweets. You can follow all the arbitration cases on their tracker, as well as up-to-date depth charts at Roster Resource.
Snapshots: Stamkos And Subban
The Steven Stamkos bidding war was ended very quickly by the player re-signing with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Stamkos was pitched by just three teams (Montreal, Buffalo, Toronto) before ending the process. That may be because of the Maple Leafs’ pitch, according to Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun.
While teams bringing in big names to woo players isn’t uncommon (Oilers legends Paul Coffey and Wayne Gretzky were famously involved in the Oilers acquiring Justin Schultz), the Maple Leafs may have gone overboard. Back in June, Simmons reported team president Brendan Shanahan, GM Lou Lamoriello, Toronto mayor John Tory, and Canadian Tire CEO Michael B. Medine all met with Stamkos to sell the Maple Leafs, Toronto, and potential endorsement opportunities. Simmons reported Sunday that after the meeting, Stamkos told his agent that he didn’t want any more meetings and he wanted to speak with Lightning GM Steve Yzerman. He was officially re-signed two days after his meeting in Toronto.
Other notes from around the league:
- It was reported shortly after the P.K. Subban/ Shea Weber trade on June 29 that Nashville Predators would not honor Subban’s no-trade clause (NTC). Vice Sports columnist Sean McIndoe explored the bizarre rule that allowed the Predators to nix the clause one day before it was supposed to come into effect. Essentially, the CBA rules state that those clauses are binding to the acquiring team, unless the clause hasn’t come into effect yet. An NTC is often a hard-fought-for part of a contract, with players sometimes taking concessions on salary or term in order to get it. However, its doubtful that Subban made any concessions to get one, considering he will make $9MM per year until 2022. And while its also unlikely that the Predators will trade their new superstar, Subban would have no say if they decided to move him out before the end of his contract. Our Mike Furlano has previously explained no-trade and no-move clauses in more depth.
- Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin told NHL.com that he has stayed away from reading media reports about the Subban trade, saying fans and media are guessing at what goes on behind the scenes. The Canadiens GM says he wants to “unplug” after a tough season. Bergevin also spoke about comparisons between the Patrick Roy trade and the Subban one, saying Roy won “two Stanley Cups … I’ve always believed that winning a Stanley Cup changes everything”.
Snapshots: Brent, Mrazek, Kings, Datsyuk
Veteran forward Tim Brent has decided to retire, reports Bill Doucet of the Cambridge Times. The 32 year old is beginning his post-hockey career in real estate in Raleigh, North Carolina, where he spent part of his career. Brent spent parts of seven seasons in the NHL with Anaheim (who twice drafted him), Pittsburgh, Chicago, Toronto, and Carolina, where he last played in 2012-13. Overall, he played in 207 NHL games, recording 21 goals and 27 assists.
Other news and notes from around the NHL:
- Detroit opted to take goalie Petr Mrazek to arbitration earlier this week and as George Malik of Kukla’s Korner writes, there’s a sizable gap between the two sides at the moment. Mrazek is apparently seeking close to $6MM while the Wings are offering closer to half that amount. Despite that, Mrazek’s camp is hopeful that they can get a deal done without going through the arbitration process. Arbitration hearings will take place between July 20th and August 4th.
- While the Kings were looking to make organizational changes after being ousted in the first round of the playoffs, the majority of them have come off the ice in terms of small philosophical changes, writes Josh Cooper of Puck Daddy. Given their relative cap constraints (they have just shy of $1.8MM in space according to Cap Friendly), Los Angeles has only been able to add Jeff Zatkoff, Tom Gilbert, Zach Trotman, and Teddy Purcell, only the latter of which can be viewed as a potential impact addition.
- The widely anticipated Pavel Datsyuk contract with SKA St. Petersburg was officially announced by the KHL team today as the Coyotes have approved and signed his player transfer card. It’s a two year deal believed to be worth roughly $7.6MM US. Though he will play in Russia and won’t be paid by Arizona, the Coyotes will still be charged for his entire cap hit of $7.5MM for 2016-17.
Are NHL Super Teams Possible?
Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes that the idea of an NHL super team in the mold of the new NBA craze is simply unattainable due to the economics and setup of the league. Lambert shows that while an NBA team can sign a young, future hall of fame player who can immediately impact a team, hockey does not have the same luxury. Lambert uses Sidney Crosby as an example. Should Crosby end up in Detroit, his impact would be felt, but would not guarantee Detroit as a Cup contender. Instead, it would take other pieces to solidify such a dominating force.
The setup of the sports are different as well. Lambert shows that a Pittsburgh team comprised of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Kris Letang struggled at times to get past teams that were not nearly as deep with talent. Lambert even went as as far to show “death lineups” of players who dominated while on the same side. Though they wore the same jerseys, their impact was different because in hockey, it’s rare that all of those players will appear on the ice at the exact same time. Of those six death lineups, five won a Cup. Only the 2012-13 Bruins, who lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Blackhawks (also another death lineup), fell short.
Lambert doesn’t discount that having eight high end, perennial all-star caliber players could heavily favor a team. It’s just that the restrictive nature of the salary cap prevents it from happening. At best, Lambert writes, a team can have four or five high end players at a time.
Perhaps the bigger issue revolves around finances and marketing.
The financial structure of the league is significantly different than the NBA. Lambert shows that the league revenues have remained flat, and shows a gate revenue that is all but maxed out. The NBA, on the other hand, has seen a significant increase in revenue and also enjoy lucrative television deals. Additionally, the Canadian dollar, according to a Globe and Mail report, may have cost the NHL nearly $200MM in revenue. Though the numbers are from 2014, Fox Sports wrote up a report, along with graphics, that show the stark discrepancy in revenue between the NHL and other major sports.
Where Lambert really hits the point home is how the sport is marketed. It’s no secret that hockey is a niche sport. As parity has reigned during the salary cap era, the differences between a top team and a bottom feeder, while sometimes large, still afford the ability for an upset to occur.
Whether it’s fair or unfair, the lesser known teams in a Stanley Cup Final could be horrendous for the league as well. The idea of a Tampa Bay-San Jose Final this year would have wreaked havoc on ratings. Even though both teams boast high caliber players, they are both “non-traditional” markets that outside of their respective area, would generate little interest. Contrast that with a possible Pittsburgh-Chicago Final and it underscores the issue with the NHL: lack of familiarity in non-established markets.
As Lambert pointed out, Steph Curry jerseys are everywhere and his presence on television is a must see event. Ovechkin? Crosby? McDavid? Toews? Sure, hockey fans know them. But ask the average sports fan where Conor McDavid plays, and you might get a blank stare. Some might struggle to even say who he is.
Until revenues explode and familiarity is bred, superteams, whether they are a good or bad thing, are just not possible with the structure of today’s NHL.
Red Wings Snapshots: Vanek, Cholowski
Though many blasted the term and money used to re-sign Darren Helm, and the idea to bring Steve Ott into the fold, there were some who appreciated the Detroit Red Wings signing of Thomas Vanek. While the Red Wings addressed a need by signing center Frans Nielsen to a six-year deal, the signing of Vanek was one that many labeled as a low risk, high reward. Vanek, who was bought out by Minnesota, inked a one-year, $2.6MM contract and is expected to boost a moribund Red Wings power play that struggled throughout the season and into the playoffs.
There is also a faction of the Wings fan base that believes Vanek prevents a young forward, namely Andreas Athanasiou or Anthony Mantha, from getting a full time spot on the roster. To answer this question and others, MLive’s Tom Mitsos quantified Vanek’s performance and possible future performance by using advanced stats. Mitsos found that as many have pointed out, Vanek appears to be on the downside of his career. Besides the obvious slide in goals, points, and being bought out by his previous team, the advanced measures of his ability don’t bode well for the 32-year-old forward.
Mitsos lists Vanek’s Corsi For percentage as the first indicator. Vanek registered a CF% of 45.45, which is considered below average in terms of puck possession metrics. Further, Mitsos reveals a similar comparison when looking at it from a three year glance. Mitsos also points out that current forward Tomas Tatar, who has been speculated as a possible trade target, has Vanek beaten in almost every major category.
That’s not good, especially since the Red Wings are looking to move pieces to acquire a #1 defenseman, something the team has lacked for nearly five seasons. Moving a player who outpaces another who looks to be a one-year rental hardly helps the long term health of a franchise.
Mitsos concludes that should Vanek tally 20 goals this upcoming season, it would go a long way in justifying the signing. But a deeper statistical dive shows exactly what many suspected: Vanek’s better years are far behind him.
Other Red Wings news:
- 2016 first round draft pick Dennis Cholowski has a lot to like about him writes MLive’s Brendan Savage. The Red Wings front office labeled him an “elite thinker” on the ice, and also spoke highly of his puck possession and offensive abilities. Cholowski is headed to St. Cloud State where he’s expected to develop into a top four defenseman the Red Wings can rely on to produce points. While Ken Holland cautioned fans that the Wings would take their time developing Cholowski, there’s no question their eyes are glued to the young defenseman as a future solution to their current woes on the blue line.
Snapshots: Matthews; Tavares; Senators
Number one draft pick Auston Matthews remains unsigned by the Toronto Maple Leafs, despite the rigidity of an entry level contract. As reported by Toronto Star writer Kevin McGran, and touched on by us earlier, the signing delay may stem from Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello’s aversion to contract bonuses. Entry level contracts are fairly straightforward, with base salary capped at $925,000. The wiggle room comes in the form of performance bonuses.
The CBA allows for two types of ELC bonuses, creatively called Individual “A” and “B” bonuses. “A” Bonuses are capped at an aggregate total of $850K, and “B” bonuses are capped at an aggregate total of $2MM. Thus, a player could theoretically earn up to $3.77MM in base salary and bonuses.
For reference, the last two number one picks—Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Florida’s Aaron Ekblad—received the max base salary and bonuses available. Patrik Laine, the number two pick this year, received a full base salary and $2.65MM in potential bonuses while the third pick Pierre-Luc Dubois received a full base salary and $2.5MM in potential bonuses.
Other notes around the league:
- The New York Islanders hope to sign John Tavares to an extension next summer, according to GM Garth Snow. The Islanders captain has two more years left on his deal that pays him $5.5MM a year. GM Snow would want to avoid the controversy and uncertainty that surrounded Steven Stamkos and the Tampa Bay Lightning this summer. Unless Tavares’s play declines significantly, the centerman is in line for a hefty raise.
- Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion spoke to the media today regarding signing Chris Kelly and other future transactions. Dorion is confident that the Sens will get a deal done with RFAs Cody Ceci and Mike Hoffman. Hoffman elected for salary arbitration—his second time in two years—while Ceci is not yet eligible. Dorion also intimated that the Senators will not pursue any more free agents, which corroborates the popular conception that the team operates under a restrictive internal budget.
Snapshots: Islanders, Dumba, Fischer, Penguins
The Islanders are likely finished with their free agent shopping this offseason, reports Newsday’s Arthur Staple. The team still has to re-sign Ryan Strome, Alan Quine, and Scott Mayfield which should pretty well eat up the remainder of the roughly $4.9MM they have in cap space, as per Cap Friendly.
Still from Staple, he notes that the Islanders currently have a bit of a goalie logjam with Jaroslav Halak, Thomas Greiss, and J-F Berube all on one-way contracts. That situation isn’t likely to be resolved until training camp and further throwing a wrench into that battle is the fact that Halak and Greiss are two of the three netminders for Team Europe at the upcoming World Cup and won’t be with the team most of the preseason. That should allow Berube to see a lot of exhibition action for the Isles.
More news and notes from around the league:
- In a radio interview this morning and transcribed by Chris Nichols of Today’s Slapshot, Minnesota GM Chuck Fletcher characterized discussions with RFA defenseman Mathew Dumba as fine and that they will “be able to come up with a deal here sometime in the next few weeks”. The 21 year old Dumba had 10 goals and 16 assists in 81 games with the Wild last season.
- Arizona prospect Christian Fischer could pose an interesting dilemma for the Coyotes this coming season, writes Craig Morgan of ArizonaSports.com. Fischer made a strong impression at development camp and if he doesn’t crack Arizona’s roster, the 19 year old has the option of being assigned back to junior or to the AHL as he wasn’t drafted out of the CHL and there are certainly pros and cons to each route.
- Pittsburgh has spent $1.65MM in guaranteed money for seven depth offseason additions, a trend that reflects the rising AHL salaries across the league, writes Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Of course, the trade-off for giving those players a higher minor league salary is the willingness for them to take an NHL salary for $575K, the league minimum which provides teams like the Penguins greater salary cap flexibility with the players towards the end of their rosters.
Snapshots: Hedman, McRae, Predators
Even with the recent decision in the NBA of Kevin Durant heading to the Golden State Warriors to create a ‘super-team’, it’s still not very often that you see superstars take less money to stay in a place they feel comfortable. That’s what happened the past two weeks, as both Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman re-signed for eight years (and considerably less money than expected) with the Tampa Bay Lightning, in part because of their personal bond. When talking to Pierre LeBrun of ESPN, Stamkos said just as much:
“Victor and I are extremely close friends. We came up in this organization as 18-year-old kids. To say that we’re going to be together for the long run, and on one team, that’s something special. A big reason why both of us stuck around is because of the relationship that we have as teammates and as friends as well.”
To see two superstars leave some money on the table and not even hit free agency is a rare one indeed in today’s sporting world, but we may be about to catch it again in Calgary. Pending RFAs Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan have expressed a similar sentiment, and hope to be together for ‘the next ten years’. Here’s more from around the league:
- The Columbus Blue Jackets have brought in former London Knight general manager Basil McRae to become their director of player personnel, according to a team release. After capturing the 2016 Memorial Cup, McRae will return to the club he worked for in 2013-14 this time in a more advanced role. With the signing, the Blue Jackets have also announced two promotions, Ville Siren moves from pro scout to director of amateur scouting, and Josef Boumedienne moves from pro scout to director of European scouting.
- After being knocked out in the second round by the San Jose Sharks, the Nashville Predators came into the offseason with the plan to get faster on the back end. Buying out Barret Jackman after just his first year with the club was the first move towards that end, and bringing in Yannick Weber to replace him was the next. For what it’s worth, Weber seems to have turned down more money in Europe to stay in the NHL, according to Adam Vignan of the Tennessean. Weber took a minimum deal of $575K to secure an NHL job with Nashville.
- Flyers prospect Philippe Myers underwent hip surgery on Wednesday, and will not be participating in the Philadelphia development camp, according to GM Ron Hextall. Myers went undrafted out of Rouyn-Noranda in 2014-15, but exploded onto the scene last season with 45 points from the back end. He’ll now try and work his way back from surgery to return to the Flyers’ future plans.
Atlantic Snapshots: Matthews, Hoffman, Red Wings, Panthers
Auston Matthews is participating this week in his first development camp as a member of the Maple Leafs. Usually, it’s around this time that a first overall pick gets his entry level contract signed but as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston writes, there’s a bit of a unique situation when it comes to getting this particular deal done.
Toronto GM Lou Lamoriello is strongly opposed to putting performances bonuses in contracts, refusing to include them in any of his deals with New Jersey. While Mitch Marner’s entry level deal does contain bonuses, they were already in the framework of contract talks when Lamoriello joined the Leafs last season so their inclusion were honored when the new GM took over the talks.
Players selected with the first overall pick typically receive the maximum amount of bonuses allowable: Schedule ‘A’ bonuses worth $850K which are set in the CBA and are tied to individual performance and $2MM in Schedule ‘B’ bonuses which are tied to league-wide performance standards.
While no one expects there to be much difficulty in terms of getting a deal done, it will certainly be interesting to see how much Lamoriello is willing to bend his own policy to get Matthews signed.
Other news and notes from the Atlantic Division:
- Ottawa winger Mike Hoffman is expected to file for arbitration on Tuesday, reports Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen. Last season, Hoffman led the Senators with 29 goals and recorded 59 points in 78 games. Hoffman went through the arbitration process last season and was awarded a $2MM salary, a considerable bargain given his production.
- Detroit made Matt Martin a frontloaded four year, $10MM offer early on in free agency, writes Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. After he declined their offer to sign a four year, $10MM pact with Toronto, they quickly turned around and signed Steve Ott for one year and $800K. They’ll likely need to use those savings towards inking RFA’s Danny DeKeyser and Petr Mrazek, who are also strong candidates to file for arbitration tomorrow.
- The Panthers have lost four regular defensemen from last season via trades and free agency but Ryan Lambert of Puck Daddy suggests their new look blueline should at least equal, if not improve upon the play of their predecessors and that their offseason moves have them well positioned to contend for another division title next season.