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Snapshots: Sandin, Senators, Schneider

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One of the unsigned restricted free agents still waiting on a contract is Rasmus Sandin of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Some have suggested that the Maple Leafs could trade the young defenseman, but Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet threw some cold water on that today during the 32 Thoughts podcast.

Like I said a couple of weeks ago, I really don’t think Toronto has a desire to trade Sandin. You look at their depth chart over the next couple of years and basically every defenseman aside from [Timothy] Liljegren and [Morgan] Rielly come off the cap pretty soon. I think they have a desire to keep him. 

Friedman notes that some agents believe the leverage for Sandin (and fellow unsigned RFA Nicolas Hague) has been lowered by some of the recent deals signed, including the ones for Michael Anderson (one year, $1MM) and Sean Durzi (two years, $3.4MM) with the Los Angeles Kings. Camp starts in just a few days, meaning Sandin might be absent if a deal can’t be worked out at the last second.

  • The Ottawa Senators announced their full leadership group ahead of what should be a very interesting season. Claude Giroux will be one of Brady Tkachuk’s alternates, along with Thomas Chabot, after signing a three-year, $19.5MM contract this offseason. Giroux served as captain of the Philadelphia Flyers for ten seasons before reaching unrestricted free agency this summer.
  • Cory Schneider will be back in the New York Islanders organization this season says general manager Lou Lamoriello, who spoke with media including Kevin Kurz of The Athletic today. The 36-year-old goaltender leaned into his role with the AHL’s Bridgeport Islanders last year, posting a .921 save percentage in 30 games, while also making one appearance at the NHL level (and winning his first game since 2019-20). Like so much other Islanders-related news, it is not clear what kind of contract Schneider will be signing, or what role is expected of him this year.

Looking Ahead At Next Summer’s Restricted Free Agents

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The contract standoffs between restricted free agents and their clubs have dominated the headlines this offseason. Matthew Tkachuk’s RFA status (and desire to reach unrestricted free agency) catalyzed this summer’s biggest blockbuster trade, and the ongoing contract negotiation between Jason Robertson and the Dallas Stars could have a major impact on the future of that franchise.

As new stars emerge across the NHL, the importance of a player’s RFA years has never been higher. More and more teams are locking up their young talent earlier and earlier, and here we’ll take a look at the respective situations of the players currently slated to be next summer’s big-name RFA’s.

The Easy Ones

One of the major reasons the Stars have had difficulty signing Robertson to a long-term deal is that they already have significant contracts on their books for next season, and have precious little cap space to work with. With Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Miro Heiskanen, and more already taking up a significant portion of the team’s salary cap, the Stars just don’t have the room to fit a market-rate long-term deal for Robertson into their balance sheet.

There are other teams, though, who don’t have that sort of problem, and whether they can get their upcoming restricted free agents locked up is more of a matter of finding the right deal for both sides rather than finding a way to fit another big contract onto their payroll.

A few players are in that situation, and their teams are likely to find getting them locked into new contracts a relatively easy process.

Two of the bigger names set to become RFA’s next summer, Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry, fit into that category. The Ducks are one of the few teams in the NHL still with a good amount of cap space on their books, and that figure will only rise next summer when John Klingberg, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Dmitry Kulikov’s deals expire.

So, while the Stars’ cap situation is likely going to keep them from inking a long-term deal with their star RFA forward, the Ducks won’t have that problem with their own two stars. Assuming Zegras continues his ascension to superstardom and Terry can be a productive top-six forward once again, GM Pat Verbeek and the Ducks should find their RFA negotiation process with those two players to be a relatively straightforward process.

The Buffalo Sabres are in a similar boat, with a significant amount of cap space currently at their disposal and even more set to open next summer. Center Dylan Cozens will be an RFA at that point, and the financial flexibility of the Sabres will come in handy.

Because the Sabres are in a healthy salary cap position, they could have the option to offer a long-term contract to Cozens that might cost more than he’s worth in the short-term, but provide long-term savings. (similar to what the Carolina Hurricanes had in mind when they gave Jesperi Kotkaniemi an eight-year, $4.82MM AAV extension) If the Sabres were a cap-strapped contender, such an option would likely be closed to them.

While the Montreal Canadiens aren’t flush with cap space at the moment like the Ducks and Sabres, they should be in better financial shape next summer after Jonathan Drouin and Evgenii Dadonov’s deals expire. The Canadiens, like the Sabres and Ducks, have a talented, ascending forward set to become an RFA next summer in Cole Caufield. Without the near-term pressures of Stanley Cup contention or major salary-cap issues, it’s likely that the Canadiens will have more than enough financial bandwidth to keep every possibility open regarding Caufield’s next deal.

The Contending Teams

This is where things get a bit dicey. For the teams mentioned above, the challenge in getting their young players signed long-term won’t be selling them on the team’s long-term vision. By virtue of their recent success, these clubs likely won’t have that issue. Instead, their problem will be the issue the Dallas Stars are facing now: a lack of cap space.

The New York Rangers are one of those teams. The Rangers went on a run to the Eastern Conference Final this spring, and it’s clear that the team is intent on going all-in to win a Stanley Cup over the next three seasons, the final three seasons where Hart Trophy candidate Igor Shesterkin costs just $5.6MM against the cap.

The Rangers’ desire to maximize their odds of winning in the short-term has its benefits, chief among them being that they have built one of the most talented rosters in the NHL for next season. But this win-now chase has its inevitable drawbacks. In building that talented roster, the Rangers have locked away a significant percentage of their cap space for the next several seasons, and have left little room to add more long-term deals onto their books.

Especially with their signing of Vincent Trocheck to an eight-year deal, it doesn’t look as though the Rangers will be able to fit any more long-term, market-rate contracts for top-four defensemen or top-six forwards onto their cap sheet. Which leaves the question: if one of Alexis Lafreniere or Filip Chytil (or both) establishes himself as a top-six forward this season, how will the Rangers be able to sign them to a long-term extension?

Moreover, since K’Andre Miller has played at a top-four level this past season, how will the Rangers be able to afford his next contract? If he takes another step in his development, do they even have a chance at affording a long-term deal with him?

They could, and likely will, go in the short-term direction with these contracts, looking to keep the costs as low as possible for these years where they’re in Stanley Cup contention.

But the long-term questions persist. Lafreniere, Chytil and Miller are supposed to be the foundational pieces that support the next generation of Rangers contenders. The Rangers sent a famous letter to their fans and embarked on a major rebuild in order to acquire players like that trio. If the Rangers are unable to keep these young players long-term because they’re locked into contracts for veterans such as Trocheck, Barclay Goodrow, and Jacob Trouba, it raises the question of why they even chose to endure such a painful rebuild in the first place.

So while the on-ice implications of an RFA crunch are relatively straightforward, — it’s about whether a team has a certain player on its roster or not — particularly difficult RFA situations such as the one the Rangers will face next summer have the potential to raise more significant questions about the long-term direction and overall team-building identity of a franchise.

It’s worth mentioning too that the Rangers aren’t the only team nearing that RFA crunch next summer, although they are the one in the most extreme position. The Edmonton Oilers, another Stanley Cup hopeful, could find themselves in a similar situation with defenseman Evan Bouchard.

The same can be said about the Minnesota Wild with Matt Boldy, and the Colorado Avalanche with Alex Newhook, with the latter team’s cap sheet set to become especially tight once Nathan MacKinnon’s upcoming mega-extension kicks in.

The Soon-To-Be-UFA’s

This group of restricted free agents is perhaps the most difficult for teams to manage. GM Brad Treliving and the Calgary Flames saw it this summer when Tkachuk informed them of his decision to not consider signing a long-term extension to remain a Flame. While not every RFA who is arbitration-eligible and close to hitting UFA status will force an exit, the RFA’s in this section have the potential to dominate the headlines next summer.

For example, the Dallas Stars could be in another difficult RFA negotiation next summer, when center Roope Hintz is an RFA. Hintz will have the option to accept a lucrative arbitration award and then hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2024. Since Hintz is now the Stars’ first-line center, they’re likely to want to keep him from doing so. But with Seguin and Benn each costing north of $9MM against the cap, the Stars might find it difficult to meet Hintz’s asking price.

They might find it especially difficult to do so if they also want to re-sign Joe Pavelski, who has been integral to Robertson and Hintz’s development and will need a new contract of his own.

The New York Islanders are in a similar situation with their own first-line pivot, with Mathew Barzal able to accept an arbitration award next summer and become a UFA in 2024. For the Islanders, the expiration of Josh Bailey, Matt Martin, and Cal Clutterbuck’s contracts in the summer of 2024 might be the key to getting Barzal’s next deal done.

That being said, though, Ilya Sorokin’s contract is set to expire then as well, meaning Barzal could set the Islanders up for a do-or-die, potentially franchise-altering summer in 2024 if he doesn’t sign a long-term contract as an RFA in 2023.

The Bottom Line

There are quite a few more pending RFA’s than the ones we’ve covered so far, such as Alex DeBrincat, Jesper Bratt, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Timo Meier, to name a few. It’s very possible that many of these names reach extension agreements during this season, avoiding the need for a drawn-out RFA saga. That’s likely to be the preferred outcome for each of these players’ teams.

But the high-stakes nature of NHL contract negotiations means that the reality typically never quite matches up to what teams would desire. Players are becoming more and more empowered to weaponize the tools available to them in order to get the most lucrative contracts possible, and restricted free agency is one of the most powerful tools a player has available to him.

So, despite each player and team likely desiring to have a quick, simple RFA process that leads to a fair long-term contract, that likely won’t be what we see happen next summer. It’s more than likely that a few of these players hit restricted free agency and dominate the headlines next summer.

Oftentimes, these situations end with both the player in question and his team conceding just a little bit more than they’d like to in order to reach a fair compromise. Other times, though, such a compromise can’t be found or is simply impossible to reach. That’s how we get the types of blockbuster deals we saw a few months ago.

Based on the look of things going into this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if, thanks to the multitude of impactful restricted free agents, next summer is every bit as exciting as this one was.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Financial information courtesy of CapFriendly. 

Latest On Nic Hague

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While Jason Robertson takes most of the headlines regarding unsigned restricted free agents at this point, there are a number of other players still waiting to see if they’ll be under contract when training camp opens next week. One of those is Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Nic Hague, who, according to David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period on Thursday, was no closer to a deal. Hague is in Vegas but will likely return home if there is no deal at the start of camp, Pagnotta adds.

This isn’t a surprise, as the news all offseason has been pointing at a significant divide between the Golden Knights and the RFA defenseman. A week ago, reports emerged that the two sides had had “very little dialogue since early July.”

Like any negotiation, things can swing quickly with a single phone call. In this case specifically, it’s hard to see how sitting on the sidelines will benefit the 23-year-old.

Hague has played in 142 games through parts of three seasons, scoring ten goals and 14 points. But given the fact that the Golden Knights already have six defensemen signed to one-way contracts, and young players like Kaedan Korczak (or even junior superstar Lukas Cormier) ready to push for NHL minutes, there is a chance that the team will find ways to fill the lineup without him.

It’s that leverage, along with the fact that Vegas is perpetually in a salary cap crunch, that makes it a difficult situation for Hague. There is no one really doubting his talent but with relatively low offensive totals, a recent injury history, and the team’s financial situation, landing a multi-year deal for a significant raise seems unlikely.

As with any unsigned RFA, Hague will need to have a deal in place by December 1 in order to play this season.

Evening Notes: O’Reilly, Robertson, Anderson

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After losing Alex Pietrangelo to free agency a couple of offseasons ago, having David Perron and Ville Husso leave the same way this offseason, and observing this summer’s Calgary Flames from afar, the St. Louis Blues made it a priority this offseason to sign young stars Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou long-term. The organization accomplished that feat on Tuesday by signing Kyrou to an eight-year, $65MM contract which will kick in during the 2023-24 season – two months to the day after Thomas signed an identical deal. Although St. Louis has several key UFAs at season’s end, including Ryan O’Reilly an Vladimir Tarasenko, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on today’s 32 Thoughts podcast that the Blues’ priority was to get their two pending RFAs signed long-term.

Despite their clear focus, Friedman believes St. Louis will take a run at re-signing O’Reilly too, seeing term as the likely sticking point for both sides, O’Reilly turning 32 in February. A comparable contract could be Nazem Kadri, as Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek suggests, given his age and style of play, but as Friedman says, “I don’t know if I can see St. Louis doing that” (Kadri signed for seven years and $49MM). Of course, with their two biggest building blocks signed long-term through their prime years, the Blues have put themselves in a good position, however it’s still worth noting the departure of two key pieces from this year’s team (Perron and Husso) and further departures of O’Reilly or Tarasenko, or both, could put a further dent in the team’s plans for it’s current build.

  • Earlier this week, we discussed Jason Robertson’s contract negotiations, which were said to be speeding up with an open dialogue. Friedman also discussed the potential contract on today’s podcast, opining that a possible eight-year, $64MM contract might not be enough to sign the young forward long-term anymore. Friedman cites to the recent extensions of Kyrou and Tim Stutzle, both for eight-years at $65MM and $66.8MM, respectively, as examples of why Robertson could reasonably reject a long-term offer at an AAV of $8MM. Complicating the matter even more is that, right now, Dallas wouldn’t be able to afford an $8MM cap hit on Robertson anyways, having just over $6.3MM in available salary cap space. In that case, the more likely scenario would be a bridge deal for both sides that would carry Robertson to, or at least closer to, UFA status. If Dallas is intent on signing their RFA long-term, one option to clear cap space, which was suggested a few weeks ago by Dallas Stars Senior Staff Writer Mike Heike, would be to trade goaltender Anton Khudobin, who carries a $3.33MM cap hit.
  • A final note from Friedman today, the Los Angeles Kings may have been interested in trying to sign defenseman Mikey Anderson to a long-term contract extension. As he elaborates, Friedman believes the team had talked to him about what it would take to get a long-term deal done, but just didn’t have the ability to fit it in. The Kings and Anderson will be able to sign another extension beginning on January 1st of next year, and though Friedman didn’t say a long-term signing is going to be announced then and there, he does believe Los Angeles was able to get a sense of what that deal might have to look like and can better handle it in the future. Rumors that the Kings could try to sign Anderson long-term are interesting considering the defenseman signed just a one-year, $1MM contract a few days ago, causing some to wonder that if that was the price on a one-year pact, it couldn’t have been all that much more for four or more years. Though that might be the case, the recent signings of Anderson an fellow defenseman Sean Durzi leave the team with just under $500K in cap room, which would be a tight squeeze if Anderson’s number came in just under $1.5MM per season, but on a long-term deal for a promising young defenseman, that number may well have been higher.

Nicolas Hague, Vegas Golden Knights Not Progressing Towards Contract

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After an offseason where navigating a tricky salary cap situation dominated the headlines for the Vegas Golden Knights, the team is down to their last remaining restricted free agent, and one who we documented earlier today: defenseman Nicolas Hague. Although the organization has done a good job thus far of working within their restraints, they’re left in a bit of a tough spot with their remaining cap and one of their bright young defensemen. At the moment, Vegas sits just around $10.24MM over the upper limit of the NHL’s $82.5MM. salary cap. Somewhat fortunately, they will be able to cancel out around $12.86MM in cap hit by placing defenseman Shea Weber and goaltender Robin Lehner on LTIR, leaving them with $2.64MM in available space. The issue there is whether it will be enough to get Hague signed.

Of concern, it sounds like it may not. As Fox 5 Vegas’s Vince Sapienza reports, things apparently are not progressing between team and player, who apparently have had “very little dialogue since early July.” Sapienza adds that though Hague is in Las Vegas and ready to join the team for the start of training camp on September 21st, he and his representatives are becoming concerned with the lack of communication. Sapienza also notes that if no deal is reached by the start of training camp, Hague is expected not to report and will instead train elsewhere in the interim.

Seeing that the two sides have apparently had very little communication since the early parts of the offseason is absolutely worrisome for those following the Golden Knights. The organization has made its moves to stay below the salary cap and get creative doing so, but those tough decisions, like the one to move Max Pacioretty to the Carolina Hurricanes for merely future considerations, were seemingly meant to allow the team to extend key players like Hague. Should Hague hold out by not attending Golden Knights training camp, that itself wouldn’t be a concern, the practice happening regularly for unsigned RFAs.

If Vegas were to be without Hague into the regular season, they could field a complete roster, having six defenseman signed and on the NHL roster right now (not counting Weber, who won’t play), with several depth options available to close the gaps, but none as good, and experienced, as Hague. Looking closer at the numbers, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Vegas be able to sign Hague for less than the $2.64MM they will have available after utilizing LTIR, but the 23-year-old Kitchener, ON native has shown an ability to play reliable minutes in his own zone with his offensive ability still progressing, so an affordable deal may not be easily found. But, with the possibility of forward Nolan Patrick also landing on LTIR, Vegas could increase its available space to $3.84MM, likely enough to bring back the hulking defenseman.

Last year, Hague had four goals and 10 assists in 52 games while averaging 18:40 per night, and sports a respectable 10 goals and 32 assists in 142 career NHL games. A 2017 second-round pick of the Golden Knights, Hague just finished the final year of his ELC.

Montreal Canadiens Sign Cayden Primeau

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The Montreal Canadiens have finished their RFA work for the summer, signing Cayden Primeau to a new three-year contract. Interestingly enough it is a one-way contract for all three years, paying him an average annual value of $890K. Primeau will earn $770K in 2022-23, $800K in 2023-24, and $1.1MM in 2024-25.

As CapFriendly points out, the young netminder is waiver-exempt for one more season (or 56 games, should he assume full-time duties for some reason). This will give them the chance to run a tandem of Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault this season, with the former becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer (though Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest tweets that extension talks between Allen and the Canadiens have begun).

Even when Primeau does become eligible for waivers, a contract like this could potentially help him slip through. It is not as if he has proven himself at the NHL level to this point. The 23-year-old netminder has an .874 save percentage in 18 appearances with the Canadiens, and despite considerable hype, has had mixed results even at the AHL level.

This is a bet on his potential and the incremental growth he is expected to experience over the next few years. At some point, the Canadiens are hoping that he takes over one of the NHL jobs and even if he doesn’t, the deal isn’t so lucrative as to negatively affect their cap situation. The entire hit can be buried in the minor leagues if necessary, and Primeau is still young enough to be a restricted free agent at its expiry.

Tim Stutzle Agrees To Eight-Year Extension

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As the Ottawa Senators head into a season filled with excitement and high expectations, general manager Pierre Dorion had some more fun for fans at today’s media availability. The team has agreed to an eight-year extension with Tim Stutzle, avoiding any restricted free agency with the young forward. The deal is for a total of $66.8MM and will carry an average annual value of $8.35MM. Stutzle is entering the final year of his entry-level contract and was scheduled to be an RFA next summer. The full details are as follows:

  • 2023-24: $5.0MM
  • 2024-25: $6.5MM
  • 2025-26: $9.0MM
  • 2026-27: $9.0MM
  • 2027-28: $10.0MM + 10-team NTC
  • 2028-29: $10.0MM + 10-team NTC
  • 2029-30: $9.9MM + 10-team NTC
  • 2030-31: $7.4MM + 10-team NTC

It is an eye-popping amount for the 20-year-old, who has played just 132 games at the NHL level, but Stutzle showed last season that he is on track to be a dynamic offensive player for a long time. With 22 goals and 58 points in 79 games, he trailed only Brady Tkachuk for the team lead while making the transition to center. The Senators are betting that his meteoric rise will only continue in the future, making this contract look like a bargain down the road.

That bet, while a decent one to make on a player this young and talented, also comes with a fair amount of risk. The Senators do not have unlimited funds to throw around, and with Tkachuk, Joshua Norris, and Thomas Chabot all signed for big-money deals, things may get tight down the road if any of them take a step backward. Remember, the Senators are also going to face a tough negotiation with Alex DeBrincat at some point, who has just one year left of RFA status after this season and will likely be looking for a massive contract.

Still, for a team that has had trouble retaining their stars in the past, the idea of having this core locked up through essentially their entire prime is great news for Senators fans. The drafted-and-developed talent will be sticking around, at least until the team decides it is the right time to move on.

Stutzle, the third overall pick from 2020, is penciled in as the team’s second-line center for next season and could find himself between elite talent like DeBrincat and Drake Batherson, making quite the trio. For a team that has been near the bottom of the league for the last several years, the Senators top-six (and perhaps top-nine) looks quite formidable.

This contract will certainly be held up by other restricted free agents as well, given how much it relies on projection over actual results. Stutzle has just 34 goals to his name at the NHL level, fewer than Norris scored last season alone. He will nevertheless be paid more than his older teammate, who will start his own eight-year deal this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Montreal Canadiens Sign Kirby Dach

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After reports had surfaced in recent days that the two sides were close, the Montreal Canadiens and Kirby Dach now officially have an agreement in place. The team has announced a four-year contract worth a total of $13.45MM, giving Dach a cap hit of $3.3625MM through the 2025-26 season. Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports tweets the full breakdown:

  • 2022-23: $2.5MM
  • 2023-24: $4.1MM
  • 2024-25: $2.85MM
  • 2025-26: $4.1MM

A contract like this could be seen as a disappointment relative to his draft position but is also something of a surprising total for a player that has scored just 19 goals as a professional. Dach, 21, was the third overall pick in 2019 but has struggled to stay healthy and productive, reaching just 152 games played and 59 points so far. Those disappointing totals led to his jettison from the Chicago Blackhawks this summer, despite being young enough to potentially be part of their rebuild.

Notably, Dach is signing away four years of RFA status but will not be an unrestricted free agent at the deal’s expiry. He will be an arbitration-eligible player coming off a solid contract, meaning if he doesn’t progress over the next four years, there’s a chance the Canadiens could have to leave him unqualified, not wanting to risk an arbitration award.

Montreal is clearly betting that won’t be the case, signing up Dach to a relatively long-term deal in the hopes that he can unlock some of the potential that put him at the top of the draft. Kaapo Kakko, for instance, was selected just ahead of Dach and has nearly the same production, and settled for a two-year deal this summer with a cap hit of just $2.1MM. The New York Rangers took on much less risk with their 2019 draft pick, though they are in a very different place in terms of a competitive window.

Dach has all the things that make scouts drool but hasn’t been able to put it all together. His size, skating ability, puck skills, and positional versatility all should make him a perfect player for the Canadiens to build around – but to this point he has been so inconsistent it is not clear what they are even getting. In 70 games last year he generated just 116 shots on net, despite averaging more than 18 minutes a night. He lost nearly 70% of his 500+ faceoffs, took 19 minor penalties, and scored just nine goals, even while having Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane as two of his three most common linemates (Philipp Kurashev falls between the two).

Frankly, it wasn’t a strong year for the former Saskatoon Blades star. With this new deal, the Canadiens are betting that they can turn around his floundering career by putting him in a better situation. Since the club is not expected to compete right away, they can afford to take risks like this on high-potential players. But at some point, the Canadiens will have to turn the corner on their rebuild; Dach will need to improve by then, or risk being left behind by the rest of the talented young players in the system.

Classifying The Remaining Restricted Free Agents

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When the calendar flips to September, it’s time to start paying some attention to who’s left unsigned in restricted free agency.  Usually at this point, two months have elapsed since the start of free agency (it’s six weeks this summer) which is typically more than enough time to get a deal done.

There are currently 13 remaining RFAs that haven’t signed elsewhere for next season.  As is usually the case, those players can be grouped into a few tiers which are as follows.

Star Players

Jason Robertson (Dallas)

Generally speaking, there are usually more players in this group at this time but the 23-year-old is the only star player in need of a new deal.  He’s coming off a 41-goal campaign that has the asking price justifiably high – team owner Tom Gaglardi acknowledged it’s in the $7MM range.  The Stars would likely prefer to do a long-term deal that buys out some UFA years but that could push the AAV past $9MM and they don’t have the cap space to do that.  At this point, what GM Jim Nill does or doesn’t do on the trade front might dictate what ultimately happens with Robertson; if they can free up some money, a long-term agreement becomes palatable but otherwise, it’ll almost certainly be a bridge contract.

Underachieving Former First Rounders

Erik Brannstrom (Ottawa), Kirby Dach (Montreal), Barrett Hayton (Arizona), Rasmus Sandin (Toronto)

Dach and Hayton were both top-five picks in their respective draft classes but have yet to show the type of offensive consistency to put them in the category of core players.  Dach was traded to Montreal at the draft after a quiet season that saw him put up nine goals and 26 points, both career-highs.  Despite that, it appears that the Canadiens are at least pondering a medium-term agreement that would run for four years but still leave him RFA-eligible at the end.  Something a little shorter in the $2.5MM range is also an option.  Hayton has just this last season in terms of being a regular under his belt and could fit in a different category than this but his performance relative to draft stock has been concerning.  He’s a prime candidate for a bridge contract and with fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt, he simply doesn’t have the leverage to command anything longer.  A two-year deal around the $2MM range should be where his deal falls.

As for Brannstrom, he was billed as an offensive defender but has yet to be able to produce with any consistency since joining Ottawa back in 2019.  He has just two career goals in 116 career games but that hasn’t stopped his camp from seeking a multi-year agreement in negotiations which are likely playing a role in this delay.  Sandin could also fit in a different category but the 2018 first-rounder has exhausted his waiver exemption and doesn’t appear to be a fit in their top six next season.  His agent recently bemoaned the lack of progress in negotiations.  Teammate Timothy Liljegren’s two-year bridge deal that has a $1.4MM AAV seems like a reasonable comparable but with playing time being a potential concern, might Sandin be looking for more certainty before putting pen to paper on a new deal?

Young Regulars

Michael Anderson (Los Angeles), Alex Formenton (Ottawa), Nicolas Hague (Vegas)

Formenton played his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and it was a good one as the 22-year-old speedster chipped in with 18 goals and 14 assists in 78 games.  The Sens have ample cap space this coming season so there are some options beyond the bridge contract.  If GM Pierre Dorion thinks that Formenton is part of their long-term core, a longer-term pact that buys out a UFA year or two in the $3.5MM range might be a better way for them to go.

Hague has done well in a limited role on the back end for the Golden Knights over the past two seasons and is coming off a year where he logged close to 19 minutes a night.  They’ve already spent most of the LTIR ‘savings’ so Vegas isn’t in a spot to give him a long-term deal.  But is Hague better off taking a one-year contract that would be below market value to acquire arbitration eligibility next summer?  Such a deal would be in the $1.25MM range with the promise of a better payout later on.  Otherwise, a bridge pact that’s closer to $2MM is probably in the cards.  Anderson has logged over 20 minutes a night for the Kings for the last two years but doesn’t have the offensive numbers to support a pricey bridge deal.  Los Angeles’ cap space is quite limited so, like Hague, a one-year deal in the $1.25MM range might be where they wind up settling.

Not Fully Established

Sean Durzi (Los Angeles), Ryan McLeod (Edmonton)

McLeod figures to be a part of the long-term plans for the Oilers after a promising rookie campaign but doesn’t have much leverage at this point.  Edmonton’s issue here is cap space as they’re already in a spot where they need to clear money out.  If they can move someone out, a multi-year bridge contract becomes their preferred route but otherwise, he’s a strong candidate for a one-year deal around that $1.25MM threshold as well, perhaps a tad below that.

Durzi quietly put up 27 points in 64 games last season but it’s his only taste of NHL action so the track record isn’t strong enough to command a sizable contract.  A two-year bridge deal makes a lot of sense for him as a repeat performance over that stretch would have him well-positioned to seek $4MM or more two summers from now.  However, with the cap situation for the Kings, they might be forced to push for the one-year, ‘prove it’ contract that would fall in the same range as Anderson.

What’s The Holdup?

Cayden Primeau (Montreal), Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), Parker Wotherspoon (NY Islanders)

Ruzicka played in 28 games last season for the Flames and did reasonably well with ten points but it’s not as if he’s in a position to command a sizable raise.  He’s waiver-eligible but not a guarantee to be claimed if he passes through.  The holdup might be along the lines of making next season a one-way or two-way contract with any subsequent season(s) being a one-way agreement.  Even so, it’s odd this is taking so long.

Wotherspoon’s presence on here is arguably the most perplexing of the bunch.  He opted to not file for salary arbitration which would have gotten him signed weeks ago.  He has cleared waivers in each of the last two seasons and has yet to play an NHL game.  Haggling over NHL money would be pointless as a result so accordingly, it’s safe to suggest his NHL pay would be $750K.  At this point, AHL salary or guaranteed money is the only sticking point.  In all likelihood, the gap probably can’t be more than around $25K which is a pretty small one to justify being unsigned this long.

Primeau is coming off a strong showing in the AHL playoffs but struggled mightily in limited NHL action with the Canadiens last season.  Even so, he’s viewed as their potential backup of the future as soon as 2023-24 when he becomes waiver-eligible.  This is a contract that should be a two-way pact next season and then one-way after that as a result and there are enough of those comparable contracts around the league for young goalies that the general framework should basically have been in place before talks even started.  As a result, this is another case that feels like it should have been resolved weeks ago.

There’s still plenty of time to work something out with training camps still a couple of weeks away and several of these players should come off the board by then but there will likely be a handful still unsigned when camps get underway.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dallas Stars Sign Jake Oettinger

at CDT | by 4 Comments

The Dallas Stars have signed restricted free agent goaltender Jake Oettinger to a bridge deal, inking him for the next three years. The deal will come with an average annual value of $4MM, and leave him an arbitration-eligible RFA at expiry. General manager Jim Nill explained just how important Oettinger is to the team:

Jake’s performance spoke for itself last season. He has elite physical ability and presence in the net, while also exhibiting phenomenal mental strength in high-pressure situations. Jake’s poise and character off the ice have made him a leader in our locker room. He has shown that he has the skill, work ethic, and poise to excel at the NHL level. He was a key part of the team’s success last season, and we’re excited to see him continue to grow here in Dallas.

Oettinger, 23, was one of three players the Stars selected in 2017 that have gone on to become franchise cornerstones. He was picked between Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson that day, a draft that essentially changed the direction of the team thanks to some savvy scouting. The big netminder took a few years to develop but now sits as the Stars’ no-doubt starter for next season, after recording a .914 save percentage in 48 appearances last year.

It was the playoffs where he really showed what he could do, though, posting a .954 in seven games to almost steal the first round from the Calgary Flames. With a bright future ahead of him and Robertson still to sign, a bridge deal always made sense for the young netminder. A $4MM cap hit still pays him handsomely while setting Oettinger up for an even bigger deal a few years down the line.

For Dallas, kicking the can down the road a few years was integral, as Jamie Benn’s $9.5MM will be coming off the books after the 2024-25 season. Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter, and Radek Faksa are also scheduled to be unrestricted free agents that summer, meaning Nill and the rest of the front office will finally get some flexibility back. A longer contract is expected for Robertson, who has already established himself as an elite offensive player in the league after scoring 41 goals and 79 points this season.

The Stars still have more than $6.3MM for that contract and could create more by waiving someone before the season begins (or sending one of their entry-level players back down). All of that space will likely be needed for Robertson’s contract, meaning this deal for Oettinger was never going to be able to get much bigger.

While there is no guarantee that he lives up to it, early returns on the big Minnesota native are promising. If Oettinger takes another step forward next season and starts putting up .920 save percentages, a $4MM cap hit will look like quite the bargain.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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